Intervenant :
Raphaël Lafrogne-Joussier (CREST-Ecole Polytechnique)
Lieu
Département d’économie de Sciences Po
28 Rue des Saints-Pères
75007 Paris, France
Date salle
Room 404 (56 rue des Saints-Pères)
Supply-chain disruptions are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. To mitigate their vulnerability to these shocks, firms often resort to input stockpiling and supply source diversification. In this paper, I propose a theory where firms choose how many suppliers to source from and how much inventory to hold to maximize expected profits under supply uncertainty. Diversifying supply sources reduces the variance of supply disruptions but involves sunk costs, while inventories reduce the variance of input availability and involve linear costs. I test the key predictions of the model using a comprehensive panel of French manufacturing firms. First, inventories and diversification are substitutes: there is a negative correlation between the inventory ratio — the fraction of inputs held in inventory — and diversification. Second, smaller firms tend to hold more inventory and diversify less, whereas larger firms hold fewer inventories and diversify more. I calibrate the model to examine how inventories help buffer supply shocks and assess the extent to which both strategies enhance firm performance. Absent diversification and inventories, output volatility would be 12.5% higher. Preliminary results suggest that investing in inventories is more cost-effective than increasing supplier diversification.