Paris School of Economics - École d'Économie de Paris

La science économique au service de la société

Pierre Aldama

Pierre Aldama

Doctorant

Paris School of Economics / Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne

Maison des Sciences Economiques, CES – 106 - 112, Boulevard de l'Hôpital 75013 Paris

3e étage, bureau 314

  • Dynamique macroéconomique
  • Politiques monétaires et budgétaires
  • Macroéconomie et accumulation d’actifs
  • Économie Européenne

Directeur de thèse : KEMPF Hubert

Année académique d'inscription : 2013/2014

Titre de la thèse : Essays on fiscal policy and public debt sustainability

Année de la soutenance de thèse : 2017/2018

Date de la soutenance de thèse : 15 décembre 2017

Working papers

Fiscal Policy in the US: Ricardian After All? co-authored by Jérôme Creel OFCE WP2017-23

Abstract: Historical data on US debt and primary surplus suggest the existence of different fiscal regimes which imply that, from time to time, US fiscal policy may have violated the government's intertemporal budget constraint. But does evidence of locally unsustainable regimes eventually jeopardize the global sustainability of US public debt? We apply a Regime-Switching Model-Based Sustainability test which derives sufficient conditions on a regime-switching fiscal policy feeback rule such that fiscal policy can globally be sustainable while allowing for persistent unsustainable regimes. We find significant evidence of a globally Ricardian US fiscal policy, despite periodic and persistent unsustainable fiscal regimes. This conclusion remains valid after controlling for the reverse causality between the primary balance and the output gap. 

Why Fiscal Regimes Matter for Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: An Application to France, co-authored by Jérôme Creel INFER WP 2017-01

Abstract: This paper introduces a Regime-Switching Model-Based Sustainability test allowing for periodic (or local) violations of Bohn (1998, QJE)’s sustainability condition. We assume a Markov-switching fiscal policy rule whose parameters stochastically switch between sustainable and unsustainable regimes. We demonstrate that long-run fiscal sustainability not only depends on regime-specific feedback coefficients of the fiscal policy rule but also on the average durations of fiscal regimes. Evidence on French data suggests that both the No-Ponzi Game condition and the Debt-stabilizing condition hold in the long-run, when accounting for fiscal regimes, contrary to standard MBS tests.

Work in progress

Long-term Debt and the Sovereign Default Threshold: Does Maturity Matter? 

Other publications

Fiscal Sustainability and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union: Theory and Practice in Europe. In: Douady R., Goulet C., Pradier PC. (eds) Financial Regulation in the EU, 2017. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham

Teaching
  • Macroeconomics, undergraduate (2013 - 2017)
  • Statistics and Probability, undergraduate (2013 - 2014)
  • Econometrics, undergraduate (2016- 2017) 
Education
  • Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan, Social sciences and Economics (2010 - 2013)
  • Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Economics (2010 - 2013)
  • Université Paris 4 Paris-Sorbonne, Sociology (2010 - 2011)
  • Classes Préparatoires aux Grandes Ecoles, Khâgne B/L, Lycée Michel-Montaigne, Bordeaux (2007 - 2010)