La science économique au service de la société
Florian Bonnet

Florian Bonnet

Doctorant

Paris School of Economics / Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne

Campus Jourdan – 48 Boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

4e étage, bureau 72

Tél. 01 80 52 18 24

  • Santé
  • Economie démographique et économie de la famille
  • Patrimoine, revenu, redistribution et fiscalité

Directeur de thèse : D'ALBIS Hippolyte

Année académique d'inscription : 2015/2016

Titre de la thèse : French Spatial Inequalities in an Historical Perspective.

Année de la soutenance de thèse : 2018/2019

Date de la soutenance de thèse : 11 décembre 2018

Recherche

Published Paper

 

Inequalities in Life Expectancy and the Global Welfare Convergence (published with H. d'Albis in Economics Letters, 168, 49-51) Link

 Abstract: "Becker, Philipson and Soares (2005) maintain that including life expectancy gains in a welfare indicator result in a reduction of inequality between 1960 and 2000 twice as great as when measured by per capita income. We discuss their methodology and show it determines the convergence result. We use an alternative methodology, based on Fleurbaey and Gaulier (2009), which monetizes differences in life expectancy between countries at each date rather than life expectancy gains. We show that including life expectancy has no effect on the evolution of world inequality."

 

Working papers

 

Spatial Inequality in Mortality in France over the Past Two Centuries (with H. d'Albis, Link)

Abstract: "This article analyzes the evolution of spatial inequalities in mortality across 90 French territorial units since 1806. Using a new database, we identify a period from 1881 to 1980 when inequalities rapidly shrank while life expectancy rose. This century of convergence across territories was mainly due to the fall in infant mortality. Since 1980, spatial inequalities have levelled out or occasionally widened, due mainly to differences in life expectancy among the elderly. The geography of mortality also changed radically during the century of convergence. Whereas in the 19th century high mortality occurred mainly in larger cities and along a line from North-west to South-east France, it is now concentrated in the North, and Paris and Lyon currently enjoy an urban advantage."

 

Computations of French Lifetables by Département (Link)

Abstract: "Debates concerning the territorial divide in France are deep. To bring a contribution to this issue, I compute the departmental lifetables since 1901, for both men and women. In this paper, I present the raw data collected to do so, namely yearly births and deaths by age as well as population by age at each census carried out during the 20th century. I add statistics according to military mortality and mortality in deportation to cover the periods of the Two World Wars. I also present the methods I use to compute these lifetables, which come mainly from the Human Mortality Database protocol. I revise this protocol to take into account the specificities of French departmental data, mainly the few changes in French departmental boundaries, the underestimation of infant mortality and the lack of raw data homogeneity. This new database complements a still limited supply of long-term mortality statistics computed at local level."

 

Work in Progress

 

Spatial Distribution of Population by Age in France: an Analysis over the 1851-2014 Period

Abstract: "This paper analyses the uneven spatial distribution of population in the French départements and his evolvement between 1851 and 2014. To do so, I use a new demographical database built at the departmental level for the whole 20th century. Firstly, I show that the spatial distribution of the total population is more and more unequal. This process can be described as the sequence of three phases called “hyper-centralization”, “hyper-centralization thwarted” and “multipolarization”. I analyse this process through the two potential sources of population increase, natural movement (total births minus total deaths) and migrations. I point out some geographical regions which cumulate impairments: no attractivity for potential migrations and scarce natural movement. Second, I reveal that the age profile of inequalities has changed along the 150 years. Today, this profile has an inverted U-shape, with a maximal inequality for young workers aged 20 to 40. In a third time, I show that population age structures are more and more differentiated between départements. The territorial specialization according to population by age has increased since 1950. In 2014, retirees are largely over-represented in rural départements, while 20 to 40-year-old are over-represented in urban départements. As such, the rural South-west is more and more an exclusion land for young workers."

  

Spatial Inequalities of Income and Well-being in France between 1922 and 2014

Abstract: "The recent debates on French territorial fractures require to place spatial inequalities in a historical perspective. This paper reconstructs the departmental fiscal income for the period 1922–2014 thanks to demographic data (Bonnet, 2018), economic data (Bonnet and Sotura, 2018) and tax statistics collected for the first time. I use this unique database to analyze the evolution of spatial income inequalities by adults. I show that spatial inequalities have greatly diminished for nearly 100 years, and that this convergence was particularly powerful between 1950 and 1980. I call this phase "glorious 30 of spatial inequalities" because it coincides with a more egalitarian spatial distribution of income on the national landscape. In a second step, I show that the analysis of spatial inequalities of income per adult without taking into account inequalities of mortality masks some realities. To do so, I calculate the mortality adjusted income per adult using the methodology proposed by Fleurbaey and Gaulier (2009). Using this new specification, I reval that spatial inequalities have followed an inverted U shape. The upward phase of inequalities, which I place between 1922 and 1955, is explained by the gradual disappearance of the "urban penalty" of mortality that affected the most developed urbanized départements. Finally, this paper looks at the evolution of the geography of development in France. I show that the South-West of the country has been in a strong catch-up process for 100 years, while the North-East is experiencing a profound decline: whereas départements with the highest incomes were in this region at the beginning of the 20th century, the situation has now totally reversed."

 

Beyond the Exodus of May-June 1940: Internal Migrations in France during the Second World War

Abstract: "This paper analyzes internal migratory flows of population in France during the Second World War. I present a method for estimating intercensal local populations from three kinds of statistical data: intercensal national populations, local census populations, and intercensal local births and deaths. I then apply this method to estimate the female populations in the French metropolitan départements between 1939 and 1946. These estimates allow me to calculate the apparent migratory flows foreach year and each département during the Second World War. I show that the exodus of May-June 1940 was only a first step in the massive internal population flows observed in France at that time. The 1940-1941 period saw the displacement of a large part of the population from the North to the South of the country. I also show that the "ligne de démarcation" represented, until 1943, a clear boundary between the départements that welcomed refugees and those in which the population leaves. This result proves that this fictitious border has not totally prevented people from moving. In detail, the département of Ardennes was the most affected by departures following the country invasion: in 1941, 60% of the 1939 population was missing. Finally, I show that France kept the scars of war in 1946: a part of the refugees did not come back in the North-West and the North-East. At the opposite, the population of the South-West, a land of refugees during the war, increased between 1939 and 1946 because of these internal migrations."

 

Computations of French Departmental Distributions of Income: Methods for the Period 1960-2014 (with A. Sotura)

Abstract: "This paper presents methods used to compute income distributions of each French metropolitan département during the period 1960-2014. We first present the raw materials that allowed these computations, which come from the archives of the Finance Ministry, and are available for 1960-1969, 1986-1998 and 2001-2014 periods. Then we present methods that allowed these computations, based on the methodology used for the first time in the French case by Piketty (2001), then extended to the recent period by Garbinti et al. (2016). It relies on the use of Pareto's law to estimate high incomes, as well as its extrapolation for low incomes and intermediate incomes thanks to Blanchet et al. (2017)'s work.  This study makes it possible to know the whole departmental income distributions for each year and each département of our panel. These data shed new light on some current debates such as the convergence of living conditions within the French territories or the uneven spatial distribution of the richest households."