Publications

We examine the political costs of taxation in early modern France. We focus on efforts to enforce the salt tax, the rate of which varied across regions. Using a spatial difference-in-discontinuities design, we compare municipalities just inside the high-tax region with those just outside, before and after a reform aimed at curbing illicit salt smuggling. We find that tax enforcement led to a twenty-fold increase in conflicts between taxpayers and the state in municipalities in the high-tax region. This effect persists until the French Revolution, supporting the view that enforcing the salt tax incurred significant political costs. Finally, we document that the likelihood of conflict increases with tax differences between neighboring regions, which we use to derive an upper bound on the political costs of increased tax enforcement in this historical period

Dix-huit Conférences citoyennes régionales (CCR) (13 dans les régions métropolitaines et cinq dans les départements et régions d’outre-mer) et une Conférence citoyenne nationale dédiée à la jeunesse se sont tenues dans la deuxième phase du Grand débat national (GDN) (soit les vendredi et samedi 15-16 mars 2019, soit les vendredi et samedi 22-23 mars 2019). 1 404 personnes y ont participé (1 216 dans les 13 CCR hexagonales, 68 dans la Conférence nationale sur la jeunesse, à partir d’un tirage au sort national dans la base des numéros de téléphones, et 120 dans les cinq CCR des départements et régions d’outre-mer, à partir d’un recrutement spécifique à chacun de ces territoires). Pour la France métropolitaine, il s’agit du plus vaste tirage au sort réalisé pour constituer un mini-public. Ce rapport décrit en premier lieu précisément le processus de recrutement, globalement désigné par les termes de tirage au sort, pour discuter la représentativité des CCR. Puis il décrit le protocole d’observation de leur déroulement, mis en place par l’Observatoire des débats (https://observdebats.hypotheses.org/), ainsi que le processus de passation des questionnaires lors des CCR, d’une part (en entrée et en sortie) par la mission organisatrice, d’autre part (en sortie) par les chercheurs rassemblés par l’Observatoire des débats. Le rapport compare ensuite les caractéristiques socio-démographiques des participants aux CCR avec celles de la population française générale, ce qui nous permet de montrer que les CCR ne sont pas représentatives de la population générale. Finalement, le rapport resitue les réponses données aux questionnaires et les statistiques descriptives associées (c’est-à-dire le nombre de répondants à chaque question et la distribution, la moyenne et l’écart-type des réponses).

The views expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the EU Tax Observatory. EU Tax Observatory working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been subject to peer-review or to the internal review process that accompanies ofBicial EU Tax Observatory publications.

This paper documents the rise of corporate tax-base narrowing measures in the EU using a novel dataset covering both tax rate and tax base reforms implemented between 2014 and 2022. Our findings indicate a shift away from the ‘cut rate -broaden base’ approach, as governments increasingly align corporate taxation with industrial policy objectives. We show that EU tax competition exerts downward pressure on high-tax countries, while the likelihood of tax cuts also varies with the political orientation of governments. Using financial accounts from more than 40,000 affiliates, we find that the average effective tax rate of multinational enterprises in the EU has declined more rapidly than the statutory rate and estimate that tax base reforms account for 24% of this decline. The estimated revenue cost of all reforms combined amounts to 3.5% of total corporate tax revenue collected from the sample firms. These revenue losses should be carefully weighed against the anticipated benefits of tax reforms.

This paper studies the impact of beneficial ownership transparency in the British real estate market. In an effort to reduce illicit investment following the invasion of Ukraine, the UK government announced a new law in 2022 requiring offshore companies that owned domestic real estate to identify their ultimate owners in a public register. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we find that new property purchases by companies registered in tax havens fell relative to those made via non-havens, a result consistent with transparency raising the costs of illicit investment. These declines persist even after dropping tax havens favored by Russians, suggesting that the reform drove the decline, rather than sanctions. We do not find strong evidence of price effects nor substitution into ownership through suspicious domestic companies. While the policy does appear to have been effective at deterring some anonymous investment into the British property market, incomplete implementation led some clients to still successfully shield their ownership information, implying scope for better design and enforcement in the future.

We propose and construct novel measures of the effectiveness and potential of trade blocs, combining estimation with granular data and simulation with a New Quantitative Trade Model. We deploy our methods and new indexes to quantify the potential benefits from (i) further integration within the largest and most successful trade liberalization effort in the world -the Single European Market -and (ii) a possible enlargement. Three main results and implications stand out from our analysis. First, European integration has been very effective in promoting trade among its members, with heterogeneous effects across industries and member states. Second, and most novel and important, our estimates reveal that only half of the potential benefits from EU membership have been realized to date. Third, EU accession will generate very large gains from trade for the new joiners and moderate gains for existing members, with larger benefits for some small and peripheral EU members. Importantly, our methods enable us to construct confidence bounds for the effects of EU enlargement.

How can social prospects be evaluated and compared when there may be a risk on i) the actual allocations that people will receive, ii) the existence of these future people, and iii) their preferences? This paper investigates this question, which can arise when considering policies, such as climate policy, that affect people who do not yet exist. We start from the observation that there is no social ordering that meets minimal requirements of fairness, social rationality, and respect for people’s ex ante preferences. We explore three ways around this impossibility. First, if we drop the ex ante Pareto requirement, we can obtain fair ex post criteria that take an (arbitrary) expected utility of an equally-distributed equivalent level of well-being. Second, if the social ordering is not an expected utility, we can obtain fair ex ante criteria that evaluate uncertain individual prospects with a certaintyequivalent measure of well-being. Third, if we accept that interpersonal comparisons rely on VNM utility functions even in absence of risk, we can construct expected utility social orderings that satisfy of a version of Pareto ex ante.

Equivalence scales (ES) are widely used to compare income levels across different households.

Yet the commonly used OECD and square-root scales rely on assumptions about household economies of scale that lack robust empirical support. Using responses to the Minimum Income Question (MIQ) from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey, we construct subjective ES based on panel data, rather than relying on pooled OLS as in most previous studies, allowing us to track how income needs evolve within households over time instead of comparing different households. The economies of scale in this subjective scale are notably different from those in traditional ES, and these differences have a substantial effect on the levels and distribution of equivalised income. Based on our empirical findings, we propose a simple alternative to conventional ES and illustrate its implications for poverty and inequality, both within and across countries. Our results show that the choice of equivalence scale significantly influences not only the estimated levels of these variables but also country rankings in comparative analyses.

We here use European Social Survey data to disentangle the ‘inherited’ and ‘contextual’ components of resilience, following the approaches taken in Alesina and Giuliano (2010) and Luttmer and Singhal (2011). We suggest that the inherited part of resilience reflects culture in the country of birth, while the contextual part captures both institutions and culture in the country where the individual currently resides. We separately identify these two components via a sample of immigrants, for whom the birth and residence countries differ. We find that resilience is both inherited and contextual, with the latter component being the most important. The ‘inherited’ component of resilience is larger for men and those who do not have citizenship in their residence country. We last present some evidence from second-generation immigrants of the intergenerational transmission of inherited cultural resilience.

We here use UK data and exploit the State Pension eligibility age to establish the causal effect of parental retirement on adult children’s well-being in a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design analysis. Maternal retirement increases adult children’s life and income satisfaction by 0.20 standard deviations in the short run. These impacts are stronger for adult children with lower incomes, with young children of their own, and who live close to their retired parents. We emphasise the critical role of intergenerational time transfers from retired mothers in enhancing their adult children’s well-being.

L’interculturalité : pour un accès au droit universel ?

La réforme du salaire journalier de référence est entrée en vigueur le 1er octobre 2021 dans le cadre d’une refonte globale de l’Assurance chômage en France. Pour les demandeurs d’emploi ayant alterné périodes travaillées et de non-travaillées avant d’accéder à une indemnisation, cette réforme allonge la durée maximale des allocations chômage tout en en réduisant le montant. Cette étude évalue l’impact de cette réforme sur les trajectoires professionnelles, en tenant compte de l’exposition hétérogène des individus à la réforme. Celle-ci dépend directement du temps passé sans emploi entre le premier et le dernier jour travaillé au cours des deux dernières années.

Is Migration Good for the Public Finances.

We study the effects of the SRU law introduced in France in December 2000 to support scattered development of public housing in cities and favor social mixity. This law imposes 20% of public dwellings to all medium and large municipalities of large-enough cities, with fees for those not abiding by the law. Using exhaustive fiscal data, we evaluate the effects of the law over the 1996-2008 period using a difference-in-differences approach at the municipality and neighborhood levels. We find that the law stimulated public housing construction in treated municipalities, but only slightly increased the presence of low-income households. Indeed, new public dwellings enter categories to which medium-income are eligible and most additional occupants are not poor. Within municipalities, the policy decreased public housing segregation but it barely decreased low-income segregation. This comes from local authorities increasing over time the presence of public dwellings in neighborhoods away from existing public housing but in places concentrating low-income households.

We explore empirically the impact of the market sharing collusive practices that were implemented in the French public transportation industry between 1994 and 1999. We build a structural model of bidding markets where innovating firms compete for the market and have the ability to spread the benefits of their innovation through all markets on which they are active. Each local competitive environment shapes the distribution of the prices (the bids) paid by public authorities to transport operators. We recover empirically the distribution of prices and innovation shocks and we show that collusive practices had overall a limited impact on prices. Firms were in reality more interested in avoiding significant financial risks inherent to the activity, as well as the high cost of preparing a tender proposal. As a by-product, we perform a counterfactual analysis that allows us to simulate how an increase in firms’ innovation reduces prices significantly.

We study a large market model of dynamic matching with no monetary transfers and a continuum of agents who have to be assigned items at each date. When the social planner can only elicit ordinal agents’ preferences, we prove that under a mild regularity assumption, incentive compatible and ordinally efficient allocation rules coincide with spot mechanisms. The latter specify “virtual prices” for items at each date and, for each agent, randomly select a budget of virtual money at the beginning of time. When the social planner can elicit cardinal preferences, we prove that under a similar regularity assumption, incentive compatible and Pareto efficient mechanisms coincide with spot menu of random budgets mechanisms. These are similar to spot mechanisms except that, at the beginning of time, each agent chooses within a menu, a distribution over budget of virtual money.

This paper introduces an internal capital market into a two-factor model of multi-segment firms. It features empire building by managers and informational frictions within the organization. The headquarters knows less about a segment’s true cost than its divisional managers do, so managers can over-report their costs and receive more capital than optimal. Our novel theory, which enables us to endogenize the cost structure of multi-segment firms, shows that international trade imposes discipline on divisional managers and improves the capital allocation between divisions, thereby lowering the conglomerate discount. The theory can explain why exporters exhibit a lower conglomerate discount than non-exporters. We exploit the China shock as an exogenous change to competition to confirm the model’s predictions with data on US companies.

This paper analyzes the implications of attrition for the internal and external validity of the results of four randomized experiments and proposes a new method to correct for attrition bias. We find that not including those found during the intensive tracking can lead to a substantial overestimation or underestimation of the intention-to-treat effects, even when attrition without such tracking is balanced. We propose to correct for attrition using inverse probability weighting with estimates of weights that exploit the similarities between missing individuals and those found during an intensive tracking phase.

This paper offers a new approach to measuring the size of the informal economy based on VAT data for the European Union. Although data intensive, our evading value added duty economy (EVADE) measure is simpler and more transparent than existing measures. EVADE also shows more variation across countries of Europe than earlier measures, including higher informality in Greece, Italy, and Spain, for example. Moreover, we find considerably higher variation within countries across time; in a cross-country time series regression, controlling for tax rates, we confirm that the informal economy grows significantly in recessions and decreases in booms, which we term the “Hugo effect”.

We explore the consequences of the development of home working for wages, hours worked and employee health in the post COVID era. We base our research strategy on a French law passed in 2017 to encourage telework agreements between employers and employees. In the months following the law, many establishments signed telework agreements, and we show that this subsequently led to a much greater development of home working in these establishments after the epidemic shock in 2020. This increase was particularly significant in mid-level occupations, and was followed by a deterioration in the health of the employees concerned, particularly men.

Workers who are worried about their personal finances may find it hard to focus at work. If so, reducing financial concerns could increase productivity. We test this hypothesis in a sample of low-income Indian piece-rate manufacturing workers. We stagger when wages are paid out: some workers are paid earlier and receive a cash infusion while others remain liquidity constrained. The cash infusion leads workers to reduce their financial concerns by immediately paying off debts and buying household essentials. Subsequently, they become more productive at work: their output increases by 7% (0.11 std. dev.), and they make fewer costly, unintentional mistakes. Workers with more cash on hand thus not only work faster but also more attentively, suggesting improved cognition. These effects are concentrated among more financially constrained workers. We argue that mechanisms such as gift exchange or nutrition cannot account for our results. Instead, our findings suggest that financial strain, at least partly through psychological channels, has the potential to reduce earnings exactly when money is most needed.

Via peer-to-peer lending, notaries mobilized immense amounts of capital in France up into the 1930s. They did so despite a thriving stock market, widespread banking with branches, and the existence of an effective lender of last resort. Using detailed evidence on their careers and their businesses, we analyze their training, their successes and failures, how they were regulated, and how they dealt with political and economic crises. What we uncover teaches broader lessons about the misconceptions surrounding modernization, financial development, and the reputational models that economists rely upon to explain informal dealings.

Interventions targeting improvements in human capital are often motivated by their potential to break the intergenerational transmission of poverty from parents to children. This study contributes to the thin evidence base on these links by examining outcomes for children of former program beneficiaries of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, capitalizing on randomized variation in the timing and CCT’s impact on maternal human capital. We estimate intent-to-treat (ITT) differential effects on early childhood anthropometric and cognitive outcomes for 0–3-year-old children of program beneficiaries [N=366], as well as effects on key domains including nutrition, health, stimulation and the home environment. We find that moderately higher schooling for mothers (19–22 years old) who were the original program beneficiaries did not translate into improvements in anthropometrics or cognitive outcomes for their children. We also find no effects on behaviors commonly thought to be affected by higher education such as investments in nutrition and preventive health, or stimulation. Early program beneficiary mothers, however, had worse mental health outcomes and were more likely to use violent disciplinary practices such as spanking, threatening and punishing. Findings demonstrate the complexity of intergenerational mechanisms across genetic, biological, environmental and behavioral factors, and also suggest the importance of maternal mental health as a mechanism influencing child outcomes.

Emission trading systems are cornerstone policies to reduce carbon emissions. Although economic intuition suggests that broader allowance trading should be welfare improving, this paper proves that view can be wrong. Under an increasingly popular type of emissions trading scheme — tradable performance standards (TPS), multiple narrow markets can decrease emissions relative to a single unified market, so that restricting trade does not always harm welfare. We show analytically that, when intensity benchmarks are heterogeneous within a sector, this result can hold even if the well-known “implicit output subsidy” does not impact total output. Finally, we provide evidence that this concern can be of high practical relevance. Using a general equilibrium model of China’s TPS for 2020–2030, we show that broader trading results in significantly higher emissions (up to 10%), and decreases welfare relative to narrower markets when the social cost of carbon exceeds $91/tCO.