Newsletter

L’environnement macroéconomique contemporain est particulièrement incertain : les stratégies monétaires non-conventionnelles, les forts niveaux d’endettements privés et publics, l’aléa politique dans de nombreux pays et l’incertitude concernant l’avenir de la productivité et de la croissance y concourent, de même que les risques d’occurrence de chocs rares mais extrêmes, liés notamment au changement climatique ou à la montée du terrorisme.

Sous la direction scientifique de Gilles Saint-Paul (PSE, ENS) et la direction exécutive d’Axelle Ferriere (PSE, CNRS), la Chaire Risque macroéconomique vise à explorer ces évolutions et plus largement à promouvoir le développement et la diffusion de la recherche sur le risque macroéconomique.

A cet effet, une lettre d’information, entièrement en anglais, voit le jour, synthétisant les travaux réalisés ou diffusés dans le cadre de la chaire.

Contact : Samuel Chich - samuel.chich chez psemail.eu

Newsletter #14, Avril 2024

> The Spatial and Distributive Implications of Working-from-home : A General Equilibrium Model,
Par Morgane Richard (University College London)

> Female Labor Force Participation and Structural Transformation,
Par Xincheng Qiu (Arizona State University), Moritz Kuhn (University of Mannheim) et Iourii Manovskii (University of Pennsylvania)

> The Medical Expansion, Life-Expectancy and Endogenous Directed Technical Change,
Par Leon Huetsch (University Of Pennsylvania), Dirk Krueger (University Of Pennsylvania) et Alexander Ludwig (Goethe University Frankfurt)

> Decomposing the Drivers of Global R*,
Par Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (Bank of England), Richard Harrison (Bank of England) et Rana Sajedi (Bank of England)

> Unequal Global Convergence,
Par Shoumitro Chatterjee (The Johns Hopkins University), Elisa Giannone (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional) et Kan Kuno (The Pennsylvania State University)

> Technological Change and Earnings Inequality in the U.S. : Implications for Optimal Taxation,
Par Pedro Brinca (Nova School of Business and Economics), João B. Duarte (Nova School of Business and Economics), Hans A. Holter (University of Oslo) et João G. Oliveira (Nova School of Business and Economics)

> The dynamic effects of income taxes in a world of ideas,
Par James Cloyne (University of California Davis), Joseba Martinez (London Business School), Haroon Mumtaz (Queen Mary University Of London) et Paolo Surico (London Business School)

> Geography Versus Income : The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Taxation,
Par Charles Labrousse (Paris School of Economics) et Yann Perdereau (Paris School of Economics)

Newsletter #13, Décembre 2023

> 2023 Macroeconomic Risk Chair Annual Conference :

• The AI Dilemma : Growth vs. Existential Risk, by Chad Jones (Stanford University)
• Interview : Chad Jones (Stanford University)

> 2023 Macroeconomic Risk Chair Annual Lecture :

• Should Central Banks backstop Government Debt ?, by Olivier Jeanne (Johns Hopkins University)
• Interview : Olivier Jeanne (Johns Hopkins University)

Newsletter #12, Juillet 2023

> 2022 Macroeconomic Risk Chair Junior Research Prize :

• Tail Risk in Production Networks, by Ian Dew-Becker (Northwestern University)
• Interview : Ian Dew-Becker (Northwestern University)

> 2022 Macroeconomic Risk Chair Annual Workshop :

• Homeownership Dynamics and Housing Investors : the Crowding-out Channel, by Pedro Gete (IE University), Athena Tsouderou (University of Miami) and Franco Zecchetto (ITAM)
• Housing Finance, Boom-bust Episodes and Macroeconomic Fragility, by Carlos Garriga (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) and Aaron Hedlund (Purdue University)
• Consumer Bankruptcy, Mortgage Default and Labor Supply, by Wenli Li (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), Costas Meghir (Yale University) and Florian Oswald (Sciences Po)
• Unintended Consequences of FHA/VA Government Programs, by Brent Ambrose (The Pennsylvania State University), Jim Conklin (University of Georgia), Sonia Gilbukh (CUNY Baruch College) and Luis Lopez (University of Illinois Chicago)

Newsletter #11, Février 2023

> Optimal Monetary Policy when r*<0,
By Roberto Billi (Sveriges Riksbank), Jordi Galí (CREI, UPF, BSE) and Anton Nakov (European Central Bank)

> Gazing at r* : A Hysteresis Perspective,
By Paul Beaudry (Bank of Canada), Katsiaryna Kartashova (Bank of Canada) and Cesaire Meh (Bank of Canada)

> The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation,
By Francesco Ferrante (Federal Reserve Board), Sebastian Graves (Federal Reserve Board) and Matteo Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board)

> Essential Business Cycles,
By Michele Andreolli (LBS), Natalie Rickard (LBS) and Paolo Surico (LBS)

> Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates and the Optimal Inflation Target,
An interview with Klaus Adam (University of Mannheim)

> Efficient Allocations under Ambiguous Model Uncertainty,
By Chiaki Hara (Kyoto University), Sujoy Mukerji (Queen Mary University of London), Frank Riedel (University of Bielefeld) and Jean-Marc Tallon (Paris School of Economics)

Newsletter #10, Octobre 2022

> Data and the changing economics of knowledge production
An interview with with Laura Veldkamp (Columbia Business School)

> Exchange rate policy and firm heterogeneity,
By Masashige Hamano (Waseda University) and Francesco Pappadà (Paris School of Economics and Banque de France)

> The Curious Incidence of Monetary Policy Across the Income Distribution,
By Tobias Broer (PSE, IIES, Stockholm University), John Kramer (IIES, Stockholm University) and Kurt Mitman (IIES, Stockholm University, CEPR and IZA)

> Round Table : Why is the Euro Falling Relative to the Dollar ?
With Klaus Adam (University of Mannheim), Giancarlo Corsetti (EUI) and Martín Uribe (Columbia University)
Moderated by Gilles Saint-Paul (PSE, ENS-PSL)

Newsletter #9, Mai 2022

> 2021 Macroeconomic Risk Chair Annual Lecture :

• Is an inflation disaster around the corner ? by Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics and Political Science)
• Interview : Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics and Political Science)

> 2021 Junior Research Prize :

• Herding Through Booms and Busts, by Edouard Schaal (CREI, ICREA, UPF, BGSE and CEPR) and Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel (Cornell University)
• Interview : Edouard Schaal (CREI, ICREA, UPF, BGSE and CEPR) and Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel (Cornell University)

Newsletter #8, Janvier 2022

> Can Democracy Survive a Concentrated Economy ?
An interview with Luigi Zingales (The University of Chicago Booth School of Business)

> A Model of Post-2008 Monetary Policy, by Olivier Loisel (CREST, ENSAE)

> A Model of Credit, Money, Interest and Prices, by Saki Bigio (UCLA, NBER)

> Falling Interest Rates and Credit Misallocation : Lessons from General Equilibrium, by Alberto Martin (CREi, UPF, Barcelona GSE)

> The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending, by Olivier Coibion (University of Texas at Austin)

> Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations, by Dmitriy Sergeyev (Bocconi University)

Newsletter #7, Septembre 2021

> Simple Rules for a Complex World with Artificial Intelligence
An interview with Jesús Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)

> Collateralization and Asset Price Bubbles when Investors Disagree about Risk,
by Tobias Broer (PSE, IIES and CEPR) and Afroditi Kero (Neapolis University Pafos)

> Sovereign Default and Imperfect Tax Enforcement,
by Francesco Pappadà (Banque de France, PSE Visitor) and Yanos Zylberberg (University of Bristol, CESifo and the Alan Turing Institute)

Newsletter #6, Décembre 2020

> State Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy : The Refinancing Channel
An interview with Martin Eichenbaum (Northwestern University)

> The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus : Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S.,
by Benjamin Moll (London School of Economics)

> Housing Tenure and Household Debt : Life-Cycle Dynamics During a Boom and Bust,
by Clodomiro Ferreira (Bank of Spain)

> Understanding Consumer Default Risk, by Stefania Albanesi (University of Pittsburgh)

> Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief : Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession,
by Adrien Auclert (Stanford University)

Newsletter #5, Septembre 2020

> Roundtable : Macroeconomic consequences of the Coronavirus crisis

> 2020 Junior Research Prize : Ludwig Straub (Harvard University) and Robert Ulbricht (Boston College)

> Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries, by Nuno Coimbra (PSE) and Hélène Rey (London Business School, CEPR and NBER)

> Waiting for the Prince Charming : Fixed-Term Contracts as Stopgaps, by Normann Rion (PSE, ENS-PSL)

Newsletter #4, Avril 2020

> Why do Stock Markets Jump (and Trump’s impact on Markets) ?
An Interview with Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University)

> Risks posed by China to the global economy

• The Changing Landscape of China’s Financial System, by Yu Zheng (Queen Mary)
• Trade Networks and Firm Value : Evidence from the 2018 US China Trade War, by Yi Huang (IIES Geneva)
• Understanding China’s Debt Risk, by Wei Yao (Société Générale)

Newsletter #3, Décembre 2019

> Risk-Centric Macroeconomics : An Interview with Ricardo Caballero (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

> Strategic Default in Financial Networks, by Nizar Allouch (University of Kent)

> The Transmission of Shocks in Endogenous Financial Networks : A Structural Approach, by Romain Rancière (University of Southern California)

> Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans, by Anna Orlik (Federal Reserve Board)

> Panel : Long-Term Risks for the World Economy

Newsletter #2, Juin 2019

> 2019 Young Researcher Award

> Intermediation and Voluntary Exposure to Counterparty Risk, by Maryam Farboodi (MIT Sloan School of Management)

> Trading Ambiguity : A Tale of Two Heterogeneities, by Jean-Marc Tallon (PSE, CNRS)

> From Microeconomic Favoritism to Macroeconomic Populism, by Gilles Saint-Paul (PSE, ENS)

Newsletter #1, Décembre 2018

> Why a SCOR-PSE Chair on macroeconomic risk ? By Gilles Saint-Paul (PSE, ENS)

> Highlights from the inaugural conference

• Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth ?
• Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles
• Interest Rate Management in Uncertain Times
• The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low
• Policy panel : Are we at risk of a new financial crisis ?

> Disaster risk in macroeconomics and finance, by Xavier Gabaix (Harvard)