Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence?

Article dans une revue: This paper disentangles the relationship between COVID-19 propagation and mobility. In a theoretical model allowing mobility to be endogenously determined by the COVID-19 prevalence rate, we show that an exogenous epidemic shock has an immediate effect on mobility whereas an exogenous mobility shock influences epidemic variables with a delay. In the long run, exogenous disease contagiousness and mobility jointly shape epidemiological outcomes. The short-run theoretical result allows us to recover, empirically, the causal impacts of mobility and COVID-19 hospitalisations on each other in France. We find that hospitalisations are highly sensitive to mobility whereas mobility is little influenced by hospitalisations. In France, it seems therefore that voluntary social distancing would not have been effective to control the epidemic, in the absence of social distancing mandates.

Auteur(s)

Hippolyte d’Albis, Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron, Dramane Coulibaly, Rodolphe Desbordes

Revue
  • Economic Theory
Date de publication
  • 2024
Mots-clés JEL
C32 C61 I1
Mots-clés
  • COVID-19
  • Epidemic models
  • Mobility
Pages
  • 261–282
Version
  • 1
Volume
  • 77