Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory

Article dans une revue: During the last century, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a Unified Growth Theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for cohorts 1906–1975 of the Human Fertility Database.

Auteur(s)

Hippolyte d’Albis, Angela Greulich, Grégory Ponthière

Revue
  • Journal of Economic Theory
Date de publication
  • 2018
Mots-clés JEL
J11 J13 O13
Mots-clés
  • Fertility
  • Childbearing age
  • Births postponement
  • Human capital
  • Regime shift
Pages
  • 461 – 494
Version
  • 1
Volume
  • 177