Dynamic (Mis)allocation of Investments in Solar Energy

Pré-publication, Document de travail: Because they differ in terms of technology, size and location, solar photovoltaic installations exhibit very heterogeneous levelized costs of producing electricity. Therefore, the present value cost of meeting a given trajectory of annual solar energy production depends on which projects are commissioned when: the observed sequence of investment decisions need not be cost-efficient. We propose a methodology to assess dynamic misallocation by comparing the present value cost of realized investments to a counterfactual optimal sequence of investments. Applying our methodology to France between 2005 and 2021, we find that the observed trajectory of annual solar production could have been obtained at a present value cost almost 30% lower than its realized value. Our optimized counterfactual suggests that investments in residential solar should have on average been postponed by 7 years, while investments in medium and large-scale installations should have occurred 2 to 4 years earlier.

Auteur(s)

Nicolas Astier, Nicolas Hatem

Date de publication
  • 2023
Mots-clés
  • Solar photovoltaic
  • Renewable energy
  • Renewable policies
  • Misallocation
  • Cost efficiency
Version
  • 1