Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?

Pré-publication, Document de travail: The paper develops an Early Warning System (EWS) to identify the build up of vulnerabilities in the external sector of 31 Emerging Markets (EMs) across the period 1995-2017 and avoid the painful sudden reversal of capital flows associated to them. It contributes to the literature on the prediction of financial discontinuities in three ways. First, it uses a discrete choice model to calculate and compare the marginal effect of different domestic and global factors on the probability of a sudden stop materializing. Second, it analyzes the performance of the model with a recursive framework that reflects accurately the information set available to policymakers at the time of the prediction. Third, it investigates the relationship between ex-ante probability of a sudden stop and the ensuing output loss. We find that domestic and global factors contribute to the reversal of capital flows in a comparable way. Our model calls half of the pre-crisis periods, exhibiting a high specificity and a proper timing. Moreover, we find a positive link between the ex-ante probability of a sudden stop and the associated ex-post loss. These results call for an active use of Early Warnings in the policy-making sphere.

Auteur(s)

Umberto Collodel

Date de publication
  • 2021
Mots-clés
  • Early Warning System
  • Sudden Stops
  • Emerging Markets
  • External Crisis
Référence interne
  • PSE Working Papers n°2021-20
Pages
  • 48 p.
Version
  • 1