Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process

Article dans une revue: In this article, we investigate conditional mean and variance forecasts using a dynamic model following a k-factor GIGARCH process. We are particularly interested in calculating the conditional variance of the prediction error. We apply this method to electricity prices and test spot prices forecasts until one month ahead forecast. We conclude that the k-factor GIGARCH process is a suitable tool to forecast spot prices, using the classical RMSE criteria.

Auteur(s)

Abdou Kâ Diongue, Dominique Guegan, Bertrand Vignal

Revue
  • Applied Energy
Date de publication
  • 2009
Mots-clés
  • Moyenne conditionnelle
  • Variance conditionnelle
  • Prévisions
  • Prix spot d’électricité
Pages
  • 505-510
Version
  • 2
Volume
  • 86