Negative results in science: Blessing or (winner’s) curse?

Pré-publication, Document de travail: Two players receiving independent signals on a risky project with common value compete to be the first to invest. We characterize the equilibrium of this preemption game as the publicity of signals varies. Private signals create a winner's curse: the first mover suspects that his rival might have privately received adverse information, hence exited. To compensate, players seek more evidence supporting the project, resulting in later investment. A conservative planner concerned with avoiding unprofitable investments may then prefer private signals. Our results suggest that policy interventions should primarily tackle winner-takes-all competition, and regulate transparency only once competition is sufficiently mild.

Auteur(s)

Catherine Bobtcheff, Raphaël Levy, Thomas Mariotti

Date de publication
  • 2022
Référence interne
  • PSE Working Papers n°2022-01
Pages
  • 44 p.
Version
  • 1