Negative results in science: Blessing or (winner’s) curse?
Pré-publication, Document de travail: Two players receiving independent signals on a risky project with common value compete to be the first to invest. We characterize the equilibrium of this preemption game as the publicity of signals varies. Private signals create a winner's curse: the first mover suspects that his rival might have privately received adverse information, hence exited. To compensate, players seek more evidence supporting the project, resulting in later investment. A conservative planner concerned with avoiding unprofitable investments may then prefer private signals. Our results suggest that policy interventions should primarily tackle winner-takes-all competition, and regulate transparency only once competition is sufficiently mild.
Auteur(s)
Catherine Bobtcheff, Raphaël Levy, Thomas Mariotti
Date de publication
- 2022
Référence interne
- PSE Working Papers n°2022-01
Pages
- 44 p.
URL de la notice HAL
Version
- 1