On the consistency of the two-step estimates of the MS-DFM: a Monte Carlo study

Pré-publication, Document de travail: The Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model (MS-DFM) has been used in different applications, notably in the business cycle analysis. When the cross-sectional dimension of data is high, the Maximum Likelihood estimation becomes unfeasible due to the excessive number of parameters. In this case, the MS-DFM can be estimated in two steps, which means that in the first step the common factor is extracted from a database of indicators, and in the second step the Markov-Switching autoregressive model is fit to this extracted factor. The validity of the two-step method is conventionally accepted, although the asymptotic properties of the two-step estimates have not been studied yet. In this paper we examine their consistency as well as the small-sample behavior with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Our results indicate that the two-step estimates are consistent when the number of cross-section series and time observations is large, however, as expected, the estimates and their standard errors tend to be biased in small samples.

Auteur(s)

Catherine Doz, Anna Petronevich

Date de publication
  • 2017
Mots-clés
  • Markov-switching
  • Dynamic Factor models
  • Two-step estimation
  • Small-sample performance
  • Consistency
  • Monte Carlo simulations
Référence interne
  • PSE Working Papers n°2017-42
Version
  • 1