Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part one: General agendas
Article dans une revue: How can several individuals' probability assignments to some events be aggregated into a collective probability assignment? Classic results on this problem assume that the set of relevant events – the agenda – is a-algebra and is thus closed under disjunction (union) and conjunction (intersection). We drop this demanding assumption and explore probabilistic opinion pooling on general agendas. One might be interested in the probability of rain and that of an interest-rate increase, but not in the probability of rain or an interest-rate increase. We characterize linear pooling and neutral pooling for general agendas, with classic results as special cases for agendas that are algebras. As an illustrative application, we also consider probabilistic preference aggregation. Finally, we unify our results with existing results on binary judgment aggregation and Arrovian preference aggregation. We show that the same kinds of axioms (independence and consensus preservation) have radically different implications for different aggregation problems: linearity for probability aggregation and dictatorship for binary judgment or preference aggregation.
Auteur(s)
Franz Dietrich, Christian List
Revue
- Social Choice and Welfare
Date de publication
- 2017
Mots-clés JEL
Mots-clés
- Agenda characterizations
- Vague/fuzzy preferences
- Probabilistic opinion pooling
- Judgment aggregation
- Subjective probability
- Probabilistic preferences
- A unifed perspective on aggregation
Pages
- 747-786
URL de la notice HAL
Version
- 1
Volume
- 48