Forthcoming : Rethinking the Informal Economy and the Hugo Effect

Article dans une revue: This paper offers a new approach to measuring the size of the informal economy based on VAT data for the European Union. Although data intensive, our evading value added duty economy (EVADE) measure is simpler and more transparent than existing measures. EVADE also shows more variation across countries of Europe than earlier measures, including higher informality in Greece, Italy, and Spain, for example. Moreover, we find considerably higher variation within countries across time; in a cross-country time series regression, controlling for tax rates, we confirm that the informal economy grows significantly in recessions and decreases in booms, which we term the “Hugo effect”.

Auteur(s)

Francesco Pappada, Kenneth Rogoff

Revue
  • Journal of the European Economic Association
Date de publication
  • 2025
Mots-clés JEL
E26 E32 H26 O17
Version
  • 1