Pré-publication, Document de travail: We wish to thank Andrea Bassanini, Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa, Tommy Murphy, Tommaso Nannicini and seminar participants at University Bocconi for useful comments and discussions. Charlotte Coutand and Clement Malgouyres provided excellent research assistance. We also thank Pierre-Emmanuel Couralet and Fabien Gaveau who proved crucial in helping us with some of the data. We are grateful to Gilles Postel-Vinay for sharing with us his data on wine and phylloxera and for insightful comments and suggestions. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Banque de France or the Eurosystem. The usual disclaimer applies.