22nd of March- « How should we model (economics) expectations? » Roman Frydman and Roger Guesnerie

« How should we model (economics) expectations? »
Roman Frydman and Roger Guesnerie
Tuesday 22nd of March 2011 10 am – Grande Salle of Jourdan Campus

For years, and maybe in a sharper way since 2008 crisis, the framing models of agents analysis - and more precisely of their expectations - seem incomplete, and some say outdated.
A debate, moderated by Pierre-Yves Geoffard, will take place at the Jourdan Campus between Roman Frydman (NYU teacher) and Roger Guesnerie (PSE and College of France), deux renowned specialists of the anticipation question.
Many questions will be raised :

  • How can we assess the “performance” of the economists in their understanding of the 2008 crisis ?
  • What should be questionned : rational agents or rational expectations ?
  • Evaluation of standard model of expectations : rather good or mediocre ?
  • The exchange rate and financial markets case.
  • Is the rational expectations hypothesis unequally plausible and non plausible ?
  • How should we challenge the rational expectations standards : from scratch or step by step ?


A few references about the two speakers :
> Roman Frydman – “Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk” (Princeton 2007), “Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price, Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State” (Princeton 2011). Personal webpage : http://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/frydmanr/
> Roger Guesnerie – “Assessing Rational Expectations 2: eductive stability in economics“(MIT 2005),”Assessing Rational Expectations: sunspot multiplicity and economic fluctuations" (MIT 2011). Personal webpage : http://www.pse.ens.fr/guesnerie/