Seminars

Applied Economics Lunch Seminar

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Upcoming events

• Tuesday 8 October 2024 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  BOTHE Philipp : Lost in Aggregation: The Local Environmental and Welfare Effects of Large Industrial Shutdowns

  Abstract

  The clean energy transition and large-scale deindustrialization have caused major changes in the industrial landscape of many high-income economies. This paper investigates how closures of large industrial facilities in Germany affect surrounding communities. By exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of facility shutdowns, I analyze the neighborhood-level effects of these closures using data at the 1km x 1km grid cell level. I find that shutdowns of industrial sites lead to significant improvements in environmental amenities as represented by air quality. These environmental benefits, however, do not capitalize in increasing housing prices – a result that contrasts with existing evidence for the US context. Instead, neighborhoods affected by industrial closures experience substantial local downturns, with average household income dropping by 4% in the most affected neighborhoods. The resulting total annual income loss attributable to facility shutdowns amounts to e0.7 - e1.9 billion. Using a simplified model of neighborhood choice, I further show that the net amenity effects of industrial shutdowns do not balance the negative effects on income and housing prices. These findings have important implications for place-based policies in the context of significant structural change. Additionally, using the newly assembled granular data, I reveal biases from the ecological fallacy in previous assessments of environmental inequality in Germany and show that there exists significant inequality in the exposure to fine particulate matter across the income distribution.

• Tuesday 15 October 2024 12:30-13:30

  R221

  TESCHKE Eric : *

• Tuesday 22 October 2024 12:30-13:30

  LO CONTE Giacomo : *

• Tuesday 29 October 2024 12:30-13:30

  KENEDI Gustave : *

• Tuesday 5 November 2024 12:30-13:30

  R221

  PECHEU Vladimir : *

• Tuesday 12 November 2024 12:30-13:30

  R221

  AHMED Resuf : *

• Tuesday 19 November 2024 12:30-13:30

  VILTARD Nathan : *

• Tuesday 26 November 2024 12:30-13:30

  MOSHRIF Rowaida : *

• Tuesday 3 December 2024 12:30-13:30

  PALUSKIEWICZ Luc : *

• Tuesday 10 December 2024 12:30-13:30

  GOEDDE Julius : *

• Tuesday 17 December 2024 12:30-13:30

  SCHÜTZ Rafael : *

• Tuesday 14 January 2025 12:30-13:30

  TARTOVA Desislava (PSE) : *

• Tuesday 21 January 2025 12:30-13:30

  BÉZY Thomas : *

• Tuesday 28 January 2025 12:30-13:30

  LOUBES Romaine (PSE) : *

• Tuesday 25 February 2025 12:30-13:30

  OVERBECK Daniel (University of Manheim ) : *

• Tuesday 4 March 2025 12:30-13:30

  CASTIELLO Maxence (Paris 1) : *

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  Abstract

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  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 11 March 2025 12:30-13:30

  OYON LERGA Unai (PSE) : *

• Tuesday 18 March 2025 12:30-13:30

  HONG Sehyun : *

• Tuesday 25 March 2025 12:30-13:30

  DOERFLER Maximilian : *

• Tuesday 1 April 2025 12:30-13:30

  ANDREESCU Marie (PSE) : *

• Tuesday 8 April 2025 12:30-13:30

  GEUNA Pietro (PSE) : *

• Tuesday 15 April 2025 12:30-13:30

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• Tuesday 29 April 2025 12:30-13:30

  HÉLIE Julia : *

• Tuesday 13 May 2025 12:30-13:30

  salle R-2.21

  NEEF Theresa (Halle Institute for Economic Research & World Inequality Lab) : The Long Way to Gender Equality: Gender Pay Differences in Germany, 1871-2021

  Abstract

  This paper provides the first time series of the gender earnings ratio for the full-time employed workforce in Germany since the 1870s and compares Germany’s path with the Swedish and U.S. cases. The industrialization period yielded slow advances in economic gender relations due to women’s delayed inclusion in the industrial workforce. The first half of the 20th century exhibited a marked leap. In Germany, the gender earnings ratio increased from 47% in 1913 to 58% in 1937. Similar increases are visible in Sweden and the United States. In all three countries, the interplay between increased women’s education and increased returns to education due to the expanding white-collar sector fueled pay convergence. Yet in Germany, women’s educational catch-up was slowed due to the dominance of on-the-job vocational training. German women’s migration from low-paid agricultural work to higher-paid white-collar jobs was predominantly increasing the gender pay ratio. The postwar period brought diverging developments between Germany, Sweden and the United States due to different economic conditions and policy action.

• Tuesday 20 May 2025 12:30-13:30

  MOSHRIF Rowaida : *

  Abstract

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• Tuesday 27 May 2025 12:30-13:30

  WOO-MORA Guillermo (PSE) : *

• Tuesday 10 June 2025 12:30-13:30

  R221

  MEISTER Lorenz : *

• Tuesday 17 June 2025 12:30-13:30

  MARTÍNEZ-TOLEDANO Clara (Imperial College London) : *

• Tuesday 24 June 2025 12:30-13:30

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Archives

• Tuesday 1 October 2024 12:30-13:30

  R221

  WACH Oliver (Freie Universität Berlin) : Building Socialism on Abandoned Land: Collectivization and Civic Engagement in Poland

  Abstract

  This article examines the long-term impact of collectivized agriculture in Poland on civic engagement and political preferences. Contrary to the belief that socialism eroded social capital, my findings indicate a positive legacy of collectivized farming on contemporary social capital and left-wing political leanings. For identification purposes I exploit the historical fact that collectivization was more successful on areas that experienced the deportation of the ethnic minorities between 1944 and 1947 and employ an instrumental variable and regression discontinuity approach. An alternative instrumental approach that exploits spatial variation in the 1944 land reform confirms the results. I provide evidence that places with collective farms became the center of village social life and developed a distinct culture. Furthermore, this study utilizes new datasets from interwar and socialist Poland and introduces a novel municipal crosswalk enabling consistent historical analysis with data from century of Polish history.

• Tuesday 24 September 2024 12:30-13:30

  R221

  WIDMER Philine (PSE) : On the Effects of Recommender Algorithms

  Abstract

  We examine the impact of Twitter/X's recommender algorithm on political attitudes. In a field experiment, we randomly assigned active U.S.-based users to either an algorithmic feed or a reverse-chronological feed for seven weeks, measuring their political attitudes and online behavior. Several key findings emerged: Switching from a reverse-chronological to an algorithmic feed increases user engagement and shifts political opinions toward more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump, and views on the war in Ukraine. Using NLP methods to analyze the content of users' feeds, we confirm that the algorithm promotes more conservative content. In contrast, we do not find symmetrical effects among users randomized to switch from the algorithmic feed to the reverse-chronological feed, suggesting that exposure to recommender algorithms persistently affects political attitudes.

• Tuesday 17 September 2024 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  AVETIAN Vladimir : Ink and Ire: The Revolutionary Impact of Russian Literature

  Abstract

  Can the written word spark resistance against an autocratic state? To explore this question, we delve into Russian literature from its Golden Age, assessing how Russian literature may have fueled violent dissent against the State. We provide evidence that penetration of the magazine, notably carrying works of Russian literary giants that called for democratic change, intensified violent attacks against the Czar’s regime. Utilizing the “circle of Alexander Pushkin,” the legendary Russian poet and founder of the magazine, as a source of quasi-random variation in magazine’s spread in the early years and controlling for the pre-treatment density of writers in each mudnicipality, we show the relationship is likely causal. An instrumental variable strategy, focusing on the spread of the magazine through “haphazard” or “one-off” encounters with Pushkin, provides further causal leverage to our findings. Exploration of mechanisms suggests that the magazine inspired a new generation of Russian writers to write for political change. We test for and find evidence against several threats to identification. Overall, our findings underscore that Russian literature, one of recorded human history’s greatest literary triumphs, wielded a profound influence, serving as a catalyst for political violence and fueling the flames of resistance against the repressive Russian State.

• Tuesday 10 September 2024 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  BOMARE Jeanne : When Bankers become Informants: Behavioral Effects of Automatic Exchange of Information

  Matt Collin (EU Tax Observatory)

  Abstract

  Over the past decade, around 100 jurisdictions have signed automatic exchange of bank information agreements (AEOI) in an effort to battle cross-border tax evasion. This paper uses account data leaked from an Isle of Man bank to study the effectiveness of these agreements. We establish three sets of results. First, we find that AEOI treaties do not legally cover a large share of assets held offshore. These legal loopholes mean that a large share of offshore users is actually not subject to any reporting requirement. Second, we observe that banks in charge of reporting appear to correctly identify most reportable accounts and to communicate this information truthfully to tax authorities. The quality of reporting is better for individual accounts than for company accounts, either because of complexity or because of non-compliance by the bank. Third, we find evidence that clients of the bank who were more at risk of being reported on preemptively closed their accounts, potentially circumventing the AEOI reporting process. This paper sheds light on the design flaws of AEOI agreements, and provides new evidence on how sophisticated individuals ultimately avoided this new transparency shock.

• Tuesday 3 September 2024 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  ARIELL Resheff (PSE) : Legislation, Regulation and Litigation: Demand for U.S. Legal Services in Historical Perspective

  Abstract

  In the twenty years between 1970 and 1990 the employment share of legal services more than doubled, reaching 1.15% of the private sector—in stark contrast to stability during 1850–1970 and in 1990–2015. During the same period the relative wage of legal services almost doubled, driven by commensurate increases in lawyers’ wages and of law firm partners’ income. We argue that that this demand shift was driven by important legislation and regulation events, starting in the mid-1960s and lasting throughout the 1980s. Using historical data, we observe a tight correlation between the employment and compensation of lawyers and the scope of, and uncertainty created by, federal regulations and legislation. This is supported by cross-state and micro-level analysis. Other factors, e.g., changes in lawyers’ quality, patenting, firm density and technology are not important determinants of the demand shift. A back of the envelope calculation implies that 42% of income to lawyers and partners are in excess of what these payments would be if relative income remained at 1970 levels. This represents an excess cost of $104 billion dollars in 2015 alone.

• Tuesday 25 June 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-20

  ROUX Baptiste (PSE) : In Search of Working Time ? Exploring the Structure of Hour Constraints

  Abstract

  This paper focuses on the phenomenon of work hour constraints, i.e the inability for individuals to work their desired number of hours. Survey evidence indicates that a sizeable 32% of part-time workers and 18% of full-time workers would ideally work more hours at a given wage rate. While previous research has often portrayed these constraints as firm-level issues driven by organizational and productivity needs, there is limited understanding of the individual factors contributing to these constraints. Combining survey and administrative data in the case of France, I provide new individual-level evidence on the origins and consequences of hour constraints. First, I find that a majority of constrained workers are employed in jobs with heterogeneity in working hours, with some coworkers with some coworkers working their preferred schedules. This suggests that hour constraints are not solely due to firm-specific rigidities but also involve a worker-level bargaining dimension. Second, I study the relation between constraints and labor market transitions. I implement a machine learning approach to predict hour constraints in panel data and focus on transition outcomes. I find that a higher probability to be constrained from above is associated with more transitions, higher increases in hours worked, and no significant effect on hourly wages.

• Tuesday 18 June 2024 12:30-13:30

  R2.20

  GABRIELLI Maria Valentina (PSE, ENPC) : Intergenerational Mobility in Latin America

  Abstract

  This paper presents the first cross-country analysis of intergenerational economic mobility in Latin America. I exploit information on self-reported economic status for respondents and their parents, from an untapped dataset covering individuals born in 1940 to 1990 in 18 Latin American countries. In line with previous studies, the average intergenerational elasticity in the region is 0.66, indicating a strong intergenerational persistence of economic status. However, I find substantial country heterogeneities in terms of absolute and relative mobility across the countries in the sample. Richer countries are more likely to be more mobile. Furthermore, I show evidence of a decrease in both absolute and relative mobility across cohorts for most countries in the sample. From a public policy perspective, it is worrying that intergenerational mobility is low and that it has been decreasing over time because this implies the deepening of unequal opportunities. These findings, from a previously unused data source, point to new directions for future research.

• Tuesday 11 June 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.20

  MO Zhexun : Enforcing Coercive Colonial Rule: Evidence from Head Tax and Blood Tax Levies in French West Africa

  Denis Cogneau

  Abstract

  Colonial states were described either as overwhelming Leviathans or as administration on the cheap. We study two pillars of colonial rule in French West Africa: head tax collection and military conscription, using novel data at district level between 1919 and 1949. The compliance to head tax was strikingly high, and targets of military recruitment were met without difficulty. Higher tax rates were set in more affluent districts: more densely populated, closer to ports, with railways and producing cash crops. No such pattern applied to conscription, most likely because the labor drain was seen as small everywhere. Evidence suggests that tax increases were a source of conflict between colonizers and colonized. During the Great Depression, tax rates were kept stable and military recruitment was decreased, yet districts exporting cash crops whose prices had collapsed were not differentially treated. Likewise, the large drought that affected districts in the Sahel did not trigger any tax rebates or any lightening of forced recruitment. Colonial states were quite effective in enforcing their rule and not entirely blind to local conditions, yet were not able, if even willing, to fine-tune their policies over time.

• Tuesday 4 June 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  OLIVEIRA Florentine (PSE) : Children of the Revolution: Women's Liberation and Children's Success

  Éric Maurin

  Abstract

  In many countries, the late sixties marked a turning point in the history of women’s emancipation, with the liberalization of abortion, the contraceptive pill and divorce. Focusing on France, where the movement was particularly powerful, we show that the first children to have been affected by this revolution were the firstborns of the early 1960s: they grew up much more often in "modern" families (two children max, working mother) than children of higher birth orders born at the same time in other families. However, this sudden change in family environment did not coincide with any decline in their educational achievement.

• Tuesday 28 May 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  VAN EFFENTERRE Clémentine ( University of Toronto) : Decoding Gender Bias: The Role of Personal Interaction

  AMER Abdelrahman (University of Toronto)

  CRAIG Ashley (Australian National University)

  Abstract

  Subjective performance evaluation is an important part of hiring and promotion decisions. We combine experiments with administrative data to understand what drives gender bias in such evaluations in the technology industry. Our results highlight the role of personal interaction. Leveraging 60,000 mock video interviews on a platform for software engineers, we find that average ratings for code quality and problem solving are 12 percent of a standard deviation lower for women than men. Half of these gaps remain unexplained when we control for automated measures of coding performance. To test for statistical and taste-based bias, we analyze two field experiments. Our first experiment shows that providing evaluators with automated performance measures does not reduce the gender gap. Our second experiment removed video interaction, and compared blind to non-blind evaluations. No gender gap is present in either case. These results rule out traditional economic models of discrimination. Instead, we show that gender gaps widen with extended personal interaction, and are larger for evaluators educated in regions where implicit association test scores are higher.

• Tuesday 21 May 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  CHIOCCHETTI Alice : The Global Allocation of Extractive Windfalls

  Ninon Moreau-Kastler

  Abstract

  Profits of oil, gas and mining companies are strongly linked to commodity prices, but little is known on how those windfall profits are distributed between corporations and states. To answer this question, we build a new dataset covering a large share of tax payments made by extractive firms worldwide by combining all mandatory reports on their tax payments. Using this new dataset, we estimate that a 1% increase in commodity prices results in a 0.45% increase in fiscal windfalls for states, with significant heterogeneity across types of payments and countries. In a second part, we investigate how fluctuations in profits arising from commodity price changes are distributed worldwide using a multi-country unconsolidated firm-level database matched with production data covering a large number of extractive firms from 2012 to 2022. We find that the profits of subsidiaries located in tax havens are more elastic to changes in commodity prices compared to other subsidiaries.

• Tuesday 14 May 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  BERLAND Ondine (Paris Saclay Applied Economics, Paris Saclay University and INRAE) : Households' Food Carbon Footprint

  Abstract

  Global food systems are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, yet strategies to mitigate food-related emissions receive low public acceptance. To better understand this gap, this study pioneers a comprehensive analysis of household-level food carbon footprints using a representative panel survey for France from 2017-2019. Using machine learning techniques to match food purchases and environmental data, I unveil significant emission disparities, with a notable portion of these differences attributable to unobserved heterogeneity. By segmenting households into quartiles based on their current emission levels, I estimate a structural demand model that reveals distinct profiles in consumption behavior and price sensitivity, particularly contrasting low and high-emission households. These findings underscore the need to consider households' heterogeneous reactions to price changes when designing climate-related food policies.

• Tuesday 7 May 2024 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  TOCHEV Todor (IPP) : Financial Support and Training Participation for Job-Seekers: Evidence from France

  Abstract

  How does financial support affect job-seeker participation in adult vocational training? To answer this question, I focus on a 2019 reform in France using a triple-differences methodology that exploits variation over regions, time, and eligibility. Increased monthly financial support only increases training starts when coupled with an upfront training grant. This is primarily driven by courses preparing for further training. Using a novel dataset with information on absenteeism, I find that only increasing the monthly training grant results in more missed hours of training, suggesting at least some job-seeker trainees are credit-constrained.

• Tuesday 30 April 2024 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  ÖZGÜZEL Cem (CES & IZA) : Shift to Remote Work, Performance, and Well-being

  GIRAY AKSOY CEVAT ((EBRD & Kings College London))

  BLOOM Nicholas (Stanford University)

  DAVIS Lucas (Stanford University)

  MARINO Victoria (EBRD)

  Abstract

  How does a permanent shift to remote work affect firm-level outcomes? Leveraging administrative panel data from 2019 to 2022 from a large call centre where employees transitioned to permanent remote work in response to the pandemic, we find a significant increase in call centre agents' performance after adopting remote work. This performance gain is driven by reduced time spent on individual calls, decreased administrative tasks, and fewer employee breaks. Importantly, our findings demonstrate that these gains do not compromise call quality, as shown by the absence of adverse effects on various call quality measures. To provide a comprehensive understanding, we supplement our analysis with survey data collected from call centre agents, which sheds light on the underlying mechanisms of our results.

• Tuesday 23 April 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  TSOUTSOPLIDI Olivia (SciencesPo) : Campaign Finance Quotas and Descriptive Representation: Evidence from Brazil, 2002-2022

  Abstract

  Can the public funding of parties and campaigns be used to increase descriptive representation in elected office? Despite the adoption of gender quotas across over 130 countries since 1995 aiming to raise the share of women in parliament to 30 percent, its global average remains at 26 percent. Beyond quotas, ear-marking public campaign funds for minority candidates is another policy tool that countries have experimented with to level the playing field in access to campaign resources, and remains understudied. We study the efficiency of a novel 2021 reform in Brazil that goes further than earmarking in tying the allocation of public funds to the performance of female and racial minority candidates. Using a triple-diff strategy and exploiting a unique feature in the institutional setting that induces financial incentives in federal but not in state legislative elections, we causally identify the impact of the reform on candidate performance in the 2022 general election. We find that the reform improved the performance of white women and black men but not that of black women, suggesting an intersectionality penalty. We conduct a voter survey experiment to discard demand-driven effects and qualitative interviews with party officials to explore different potential mechanisms driving the effect.

• Tuesday 16 April 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-21

  WOO-MORA Guillermo (PSE) : Moral Force: Leaders's actions, within-city social distancing and COVID-19

  María Montoya-Aguirre, Federico Daverio and Max Ponce de León

  Abstract

  We study how a populist leader influenced social distancing behavior and affected COVID-19 outcomes among his supporters during the early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) defied government stay-at-home recommendations, prompting dismissal by the COVID-19 Czar, who described him as a moral force rather than a contagion threat. Leveraging granular mobility and political support data, we employ a difference-in-difference research design, revealing that post-Czar statement, pro-AMLO electoral precincts increased out-of-home mobility by up to 2% two weeks later. Concurrently, pro-AMLO municipalities experienced elevated COVID-19 positivity, hospitalization, and case-fatality rates. These results underscore the impact of populist leaders on public health behaviors and the risks when scientists align with populist rhetoric.

• Tuesday 9 April 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  PECHEU Vladimir : Trends and Inequality in Lifetime Earnings in France

  Bertrand Garbinti, Cecilia García-Pñalosa, Vladimir Pecheu, Frédérique Savignac

  Abstract

  This paper is the first to compute lifetime earnings (LTE) in France for a large number of cohorts entering the labour market between 1967 and 1987, and to analyze their main determinants, as well as those of the evolution of the gender gap in LTE. We compare our results with evidence by Guvenen et al. (2022a) for the US, documenting sharp differences between the two countries. Median LTE show similar flat trends in both countries, but in France this results from a moderate increase for both genders together with increased female participation, while in the US, LTE declines for men and sharply grows for women. There have been marked changes in age profiles, as for both genders younger cohorts have experienced a decrease in entry wages that has been more than offset by faster wage growth. Our analysis of inequality finds that it is lower when we focus on LTE than in the cross-section, and that it follows a U-shaped pattern, although the increase is much smaller in France than that observed in the US. Lastly, we also find that i) education (returns and changes in attainment) plays a key role in shaping LTE across cohorts, ii) place of birth has a large influence on lifetime earnings and iii) differences in working time explain an increasing part of the gender gap in LTE over time as both men and women have increased the number of years they work but women have done so largely through part-time employment.

• Tuesday 2 April 2024 12:30

  R2-21

  URAZ Juliet-Nil (LSE) : The Impact of Reduced Access to Civil Legal Assistance: Evidence from England and Wales

  Abstract

  In 2013, England and Wales implemented a comprehensive legal aid reform, removing publicly funded legal assistance for low-income households confronting social welfare issues. The reform acted as a large funding shock, resulting in uneven closure and congestion among legal assistance providers. This paper examines the far-reaching consequences of this reform on access to justice and socioeconomic outcomes for vulnerable populations, as well as mortality rates. Constructing panel data on the activity of legal assistance providers between 2011 and 2022, we adopt a difference-in-differences approach to assess the dynamic effects of the reform on eviction court cases, housing market tension indices and mortality rates. Our analysis leverages the exogenous spatial and temporal variation in access to legal assistance providers, considering changes in distance and congestion of the nearest provider. By adopting estimation procedures corrected for heterogeneity, we quantify the cumulative impact of reduced access to free, in-person legal assistance on outcomes with lasting socioeconomic implications. This study sheds light on an overlooked program targeting households at risk of homelessness and over-indebtedness, providing empirical insights essential for elucidating the unintended socioeconomic and public health consequences of legal reforms.

• Tuesday 26 March 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  ELISEEVA Vitaliia : The New Soviet Woman: Long-term influence of WW2-induced changes in sex ratios on family formation

  Abstract

  Using local variation in 17 million World War II military deaths in the USSR, I show that war-driven male scarcity led to a long-term increase in the marriage rates and decrease in the single parenting by females. Using survey data, I document that modern-day attitudes towards the importance of family formation and gender roles in the family are more conservative in historically more male-scarce localities. To explain why my main result goes against the literature, I show that it can be explained by both high pre-war Female Labor Force Participation and low post-war migration. Additionally, I present the evidence suggesting that new gender norms diffused vertically from parents to children rather than horizontally in affected locations.

• Tuesday 19 March 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  NIEVAS Gastón (PSE) : Has the US exorbitant privilege become a rich world privilege? Rates of return and foreign assets from a global perspective, 1970-2022

  Alice Sodano

  Abstract

  How have rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities impacted different groups of countries across the recent financial globalization? We address this question by combining data from a wide variety of sources, encompassing the entire world (216 economies) for the period 1970-2022. We find that returns on foreign assets have decreased for everyone. On the contrary, returns on foreign liabilities have only decreased for the top 20% richest countries. This differential between returns on assets and returns on liabilities has extended the exorbitant privilege of the US to become a rich world privilege. The richest countries have become the bankers of the world, attracting excess savings by providing low-yield safe assets and investing these inflows in more profitable ventures. Such a privilege is translated in net income transfers from the poorest to the richest equivalent to 1% of the GDP of top 20% countries (and 2% of GDP for top 10% countries), alleviating the current account balance of the latter while deteriorating that of the bottom 80% by about 2-3% of their GDP. Moreover, rich countries also experience positive capital gains during the period, which further improves their international investment position (IIP) and presents evidence that their foreign investments are not as risky as previously thought to be. Thus, results are explained by richer countries, issuers of international reserve currencies, accessing cheaper financing, both for the public and private sector. Our study has implications for the international monetary and financial system and the unequal paths to development.

• Tuesday 12 March 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  MURARD Elie (University of Trento) : News, emotions, and policy views on immigration

  Abstract

  How do emotions affect policy views on immigration? How do they influence the way people process and respond to factual information? We address these questions by using a survey experiment in Italy, which randomly exposes around 7,000 participants either to (i) sensational news about immigrant crimes, (ii) statistical information about immigration, (iii) or to the combination of both. First, we find different effects of news depending on the emotional load of the reported crime: while the news of a rape against a young woman significantly increases the demand for anti-immigration policies, there is no impact of the news of a petty theft. Consistent with a causal role of emotions, we find that the rape news triggers a stronger emotional reaction than the theft news, while having the same effect on factual beliefs. Second, we document that information provision corrects factual beliefs, irrespective of whether participants are also exposed to the rape news. Yet, the exposure to the rape news strongly influences whether belief updating translates into change in policy views: when presented in isolation, information tends to reduce anti-immigration views; when combined with the rape news, the impact of the latter dominates and participants increase their anti-immigration views to the same extent as when exposed to the rape news only. This evidence suggests that, once negative emotions are triggered, having more accurate factual knowledge no longer matters for forming policy views on immigration.

• Tuesday 5 March 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  RAPOPORT Hillel : From Paris With Love: Cultural Remittances and Modern Fertility

  Mickael Melki, Enrico Spolaore, Romain Wacziarg

  Abstract

  We argue that migrants played a significant role in the diffusion of the demographic transition from France to the rest of Europe in the late 19th century. Employing novel data on French immigration from other European regions from 1850 to 1930, we find that higher immigration to France translated into lower fertility in the region of origin after a few decades - both in crossregion regressions for various periods, and in a panel setting with region fixed-effects. These results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of controls, and across multiple specifications. We also find that immigrants who themselves became French citizens achieved lower fertility, particularly those who moved to French regions with the lowest fertility levels. We interpret these findings in terms of cultural remittances, consistent with insights from a theoretical framework where migrants act as vectors of cultural diffusion, spreading new information, social norms and preferences pertaining to modern fertility to their regions of origin.

• Tuesday 27 February 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  BHERING Davi (PSE) : Luxurious Tax Cuts? Equity vs Efficiency of Indirect Taxation in India

  Pierre Bachas (ESSEC Business school) and Pulak Ghosh (Indian Institute of Management Bangalore)

  Abstract

  We study the equity-efficiency trade-off of differentiated commodity taxation in India. Combining monthly product level tax returns with sharp cuts to the tax rate of luxury goods, we show that (1) the sales of goods facing tax cuts only slightly rise; (2) firms do not substitute away close goods which did not face a rate cut, even for multi-product firms for whom mislabeling goods could be simple; (3) 60-80\% of the tax cut is passed-through to consumers via lower prices. Contrary to common wisdom, we estimate a low efficiency cost of differentiated commodity tax rates and a high pass-through of tax cuts to consumers. In settings with constraints to direct taxes and transfers, higher indirect taxes on luxury goods could be desirable to achieve distributional goals.

• Tuesday 20 February 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  REUTZEL Fabian (PSE) : Implicit Discrimination in Unemployment Benefits

  Hannah Illing and Jakob Wegmann

  Abstract

  In this project we document how a wildly unknown interaction between the tax and transfer system results in an implicit discrimination of women. In Germany, the choice of withholding tax classes determines the level of unemployment benefit, so married couples can increase unemployment benefits for one partner at the expense of the other partner. We document that this mechanism is essentially unknown based on survey evidence. At the same time, more than 60% of the married couples shift unemployment benefits from one partner to the other. We show that this choice for households results in a substantial implicit gender discrimination along the whole income distribution. For example, for the median female income, the unemployment benefit for a married women are 6% smaller than for a married man with the same income. We estimate the effect of the German institutional setting on various outcomes and find a large heterogeneity in effect size particular with respect to partner income. Overall, we find that compared to a system without withholding tax class, women stay unemployed longer and find lower paying jobs, while men stay unemployed shorter and find better paying jobs. A reform of the withhold tax system allows us to abstract from choice of withholding tax classes and, hence, to isolate the effect of the unemployment benefits level.

• Tuesday 13 February 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  ZUNIGA-CORDERO Alvaro : Globalization, income inequality and political realignment: the transition from a two-party to a multi-party electoral system in Costa Rica

  Abstract

  This study explores the proliferation of electoral parties in democracies globally, using the Costa Rican context as a laboratory. It seeks to understand whether the transformed political landscape in Costa Rica since 2002, marked by a shift from a two-party to a multi-party system, can be attributed to the growing disparities in income and increasing exposure to globalization. This research contributes significantly to the existing literature on globalization and its impact on electoral outcomes, particularly within the context of a developing nation with a solid democratic tradition. It uniquely combines two sets of administrative data at the individual level: electoral registries and social security employer-employee records. The study reveals a positive correlation between income and voter turnout. Immigration data does not compromise the stability of the primary findings related to income shocks. Notably, the analysis demonstrates that immigration decreases voter turnout across most specifications. However, when applying an IV strategy at the individual level, the presence of more immigrant colleagues appears to positively influence the voting behaviour of local workers, suggesting a potential buffer effect. Furthermore, our analysis at the polling station level reveals that areas with positive income gains tend to exhibit more stable voting preferences and declining support for traditional parties. Moreover, exposure to immigration appears to foster electoral volatility and, paradoxically, greater support for traditional parties, possibly as a refuge for discontented voters amidst evolving political landscapes.

• Tuesday 6 February 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  LOGEART Rosanne : Does Access Mean Success? Connection to Policy-Makers and Lobbying Success of Political Actors

  Abstract

  This article aims at understanding the policy-making process by examining the relationship between access to policy-makers and lobbying success. I collect unique data on the textual content of lobbying activities and their subsequent policy changes, allowing the identification of lobbying success in 129,153 comments across 482 regulations. I match this novel data with meetings held between policy-makers and interest representatives to measure access to policy-makers. It reveals notable disparities in access, with the business sector having more access to policy-makers compared to civil society. Moreover, I find that access to policy-makers is associated with higher likelihoods of lobbying success. This result holds true when considering entities with access to policy-makers solely before the discussion of a regulation they want to influence, suggesting that reputation and connection building play a critical role. I also find that entities with more access, characterized by numerous meetings with policy-makers, are the most likely to shape policy changes. Lastly, interacting access and actor type shows that companies and business associations drive these results, experiencing higher success rates with access. In contrast, other entities do not enjoy an increased probability of success from access to policy-makers.

• Tuesday 30 January 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  WEBB Duncan (PSE) : Silence to Solidarity: Using Group Dynamics to Reduce Anti-Transgender Discrimination in India

  Abstract

  Individual-level discrimination is often attributed to deep-seated prejudice that is difficult to change. But at the societal level, we sometimes observe rapid reductions in discriminatory preferences, suggesting that communication about a minority might drive such shifts. I examine whether discrimination can be reduced by two types of communication about a minority: (i) horizontal communication between majority-group members, or (ii) top-down communication from agents of authority (e.g., the legal system). I run a field experiment in urban India (N=3,397) that measures discrimination against a marginalized community of transgender people. Participants are highly discriminatory: in a control condition, they sacrifice 1.9x their daily food expenditure to avoid hiring a transgender worker to deliver groceries to their home. But horizontal communication between cisgender participants sharply reduces discrimination: participants who were earlier involved in a group discussion with two of their neighbors no longer discriminate on average, even when making private post-discussion choices. This effect is 1.7x larger than the effect of top-down communication, informing participants about the legal rights of transgender people. The discussion’s effects are not driven by virtue signalling or correcting a misperceived norm. Instead, participants appear to persuade each other to be more pro-trans, partly because pro-trans participants are the most vocal in discussions.

• Tuesday 23 January 2024 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  DE MEULENAER Chloe (LSE) : Family first? Persuasion, polarisation, and the inheritance tax

  Abstract

  Despite its redistributive potential and rather widespread support among economists, the inheritance tax regularly proves to be one of the most unpopular taxes. In this project, I explore this unpopularity and the effectiveness of different arguments to move preferences. I run a survey experiment on a sample of the French population and expose respondents to one of two quotes: a Fairness argument, stating that the inherited wealth distribution is starkly unequal, and a Family argument, celebrating the inherent right of parents to transfer the fruit of their hard work to their children. First, I find that self-interest plays a minor role in explaining support for the inheritance tax, and that support is very politically polarised, more so than for other taxes. Second, using text analysis methods on respondents' answers to an open-ended question, I find that the Family argument is way more prevalent in respondents' first thoughts about the tax, and that it gathers more support than the Fairness argument. Third, I find that despite this support, the Family argument does nothing to move preferences of respondents, while the Fairness argument significantly increases support for the tax. That increase is concentrated among left-wing and centre respondents, and especially strong among respondents who mention distributional concerns in their answers to the open-ended question. I suggest that those effects can be explained by a form of saturation of the Family argument; by comparison, the Fairness argument reinforces the support of those who already agree with it, increases the support of those who feel they lack information, without antagonising those who disagree with it. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of distinguishing between arguments that are top-of-mind and those that are persuasive; and that on a heated, polarised topic like that of the inheritance tax, economic arguments may still be more effective than emotional ones.

• Tuesday 16 January 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  BROER Tobias (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne & PSE) : The Curious Incidence of Monetary Policy Across the Income Distribution

  Abstract

  We use high-frequency German administrative data to study the effects of monetary policy on income and employment across the earnings distribution. Earnings growth at the bottom of the distribution is substantially more elastic to policy shocks. This unequal incidence is driven by differences in the response of employment risk across the distribution: job loss is more countercyclical for lower-earnings households. Viewed through the lens of a standard incomplete-markets model, the heterogeneous incidence substantially amplifies the equilibrium response of aggregate consumption to shocks.

• Tuesday 9 January 2024 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  SILVE Arthur (Université Laval) : The end of slavery in Brazil: Escape and resistance on the road to freedom

  Abstract

  A longstanding debate opposes two mechanisms by which labor coercion persists or changes to free labor: a labor demand effect, by which the elite coerces labor when supply is scarce, and an outside option effect, by which labor scarcity and better outside options for the workers undermine coercive arrangements. Using a novel data set of roll-call votes on 1884-1888 emancipation bills in the Brazilian legislature, we find that both mechanisms played a role in building the coalition that eventually abolished slavery.

• Tuesday 19 December 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  BOYER Marcel (Université de Montréal) : The Taxation of Couples

  Abstract

  This paper studies the tax treatment of couples. We develop two different approaches. One is tailored to the analysis of tax systems that stick to the principle that the tax base for couples is the sum of their incomes. One is tailored to the analysis of reforms toward individual taxation. We study the US federal income tax since the 1960s through the lens of this framework. We find that, in the recent past, realizing efficiency gains requires lowering marginal tax rates for secondary earners. We also find that revenue-neutral reforms towards individual taxation are in the interest of couples with high secondary earnings while couples with low secondary earnings are worse off. The support for such a reform recently passed the majority threshold. It is rejected, however, by a Rawlsian social welfare function. Thus, there is a tension between Rawlsian and Feminist notions of social welfare.

• Tuesday 12 December 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  HARPEDANNE Louis-Marie : Real effects of central bank collateral policy: Liquidity insurance at work

  Abstract

  Using a large eligibility shock during the Global Financial crisis, I show that liquidity insurance by the central bank has significant real effects and I study the transmission channels of this policy. Newly eligible firms significantly increased material investment and employment. Firms were able to invest more because they received more long-term loans. An arbitrage argument shows that banks lent long since they enjoyed liquidity insurance by the central bank.

• Tuesday 5 December 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  SORIA ESPIN Javier (PSE) : Filling the map: improving the local estimates of intergenerational mobility

  MEDIAN Octavio (Google Research NYU)

  Abstract

  A growing body of literature indicates that the primary contributors to upward mobility are the local characteristics of the environments in which children are raised (i.e., neighborhoods). However, the standard methodology fails to consider the varying population size and proximity of these local areas when estimating intergenerational mobility rates, often resulting in imprecise estimates, particularly for low-populated areas or relevant subgroups. This paper proposes an alternative Bayesian multilevel methodology for estimating intergenerational mobility rates at a very local level, taking into account both the heterogeneous population sizes across areas and their geographical proximity. We apply this methodology to rich administrative tax data from Spain used to study intergenerational income mobility. Preliminary results indicate that this approach yields more reliable estimates, especially in areas with very low sample sizes, expanding the scope of spatial analysis of mobility rates and allowing for the uncovering of potentially new findings regarding the role of the characteristics of very local areas in upward mobility.

• Tuesday 28 November 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  LOUBES Romaine (PSE) : Trade-displaced or trade-stuck? Self-employed workers and adaptation to trade shocks in low-income countries

  Abstract

  This paper studies the impact of trade shocks on self-employed workers in low-income countries. Using establishment-level census data and job spell-level survey data, I study an import tariff shock affecting self-employed retailers in Rwanda and show that the characteristics of self-employment work in low-income countries imply specific adjustment patterns to trade shocks. The informality and unemployment channels, often put forward in studies of richer countries, are not at play here. Rather, the self-employed have specific margins in the face of a negative earnings shock, such as pass-through of the policy to customers, and reallocation of hours across multiple jobs. I summarize these novel results into a simple framework of time allocation with multiple job holdings. The model predicts heterogeneity in adjustment strategies depending on the quality of outside options. Given that women experience worse outside options in the Rwandan labor market, I test the model by looking at gender-specific trajectories, after giving suggestive descriptive evidence. I produce evidence of sizeable heterogeneity in adaptation strategy: in particular, while men shift hours away from affected retail jobs toward other paid occupations, women abandon their other jobs and increase hours worked in retail, even though hourly wages are decreasing in that occupation. The effects are still visible 15 months after the shock. My results stress the need for research on trade shocks and the self-employed, in particular as their increased risk of being stuck in decreasingly lucrative occupations makes targeted trade adjustment assistance policies crucial.

• Tuesday 21 November 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01

  TZINTZUN Iván (PSE) : Extreme temperatures during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes: Evidence from 2007 to 2019 Brazilian national birth data

  Abstract

  This research provides the first estimates of the impacts of prenatal exposure to extreme temperatures on infant health at birth in a developing country by using the latest national birth data from 2007 to 2019 from all Brazilian municipalities. The identification strategy relies on the use of year and monthly-by-municipality fixed effects which control for any effect associated with climatic or socioeconomic conditions typical of specific months of the year in a given municipality. So recurrent level effects – possibly associated with wet and dry seasons, harvests, availability of food, etc. – are all washed away in the municipality-by-month fixed-effects. I find that an additional day with mean temperature greater than 29 C increases preterm births and low birthweight. Not surprisingly, the adverse effects are borne disproportionately less educated mothers, suggesting that the projected increase in extreme temperatures may further exacerbate the existing birth health disparities across different SES groups. This paper also contributes by investigating the impact of deviations from the normal weather pattern, to identify the extreme weather events after accounting for the adaptation response. I find that prenatal exposure to extreme heat two standard deviations above the municipalities historic average induces preterm births. These results are timely and policy relevant, considering the recent weather trends with rising temperatures and frequent extreme weather events and the lack of evidence on LMICs.

• Tuesday 14 November 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  BACHAS Pierre (ESSEC, EU Tax Observatory ) : Effective Tax Rates, Firm Size and the Global Minimum Tax

  BROCKMEYER Anne (World Bank)

  SEMELET Camille (LMU Munich, Ifo Institute)

  Abstract

  How does the tax burden vary across firms of different sizes? And what is the scope of a minimum tax? This paper details the relationship between firm size and effective tax rates (ETRs) using full-population administrative tax data from 15 countries at different income levels. In all countries, small firms face lower ETRs than mid-sized firms due to reduced statutory tax rates and a higher propensity to register losses. In most countries, ETRs fall for the very largest firms due to the take-up of tax incentives. As a result, a third of the top 1% largest firms face ETRs below 15%. A minimum tax with a broad base could raise corporate tax revenue by 27% in the median country, but the OECD's global minimum tax proposal would only produce a small share of those gains.

• Tuesday 7 November 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  FRÉMEAUX Nicolas (LEMMA, Université Paris Panthéon-Assas) : Less but better? The influence of gender on political activity

  Paul Maarek

  Abstract

  In this article, we study gender differences in the quality of parliamentarians by studying their activity and effectiveness. We collected detailed data on French parliamentarians between 1993 and 2022. Using fixed-effect regressions and RDD strategies based on close elections, we find than women are more active than men when we consider reports and oral questions but less active when it comes to bills, amendments and oral interventions. The gap for bills (large and statistically significant) is observed only for newcomers and fades after a few years, suggesting a behavioral explanation rather than a selection effect. Regarding effectiveness, female parliamentarians are more likely to have their amendments passed. This is mostly due to the use and the quality of their amendments, which again suggests a behavioral explanation. On the other hand, women in the opposition party are less likely to have their bills passed than men in the opposition party. This is linked to discrimination within the party, which less often selects bills drafted by women to submit them to a vote.

• Tuesday 31 October 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  FLORES Ignacio (World Inequality Database, PSE) : Does Land Inequality Magnify Climate Change Effects? Evidence from French Agriculture

  Abstract

  In this study, we explore how different levels of farmland inequality can mediate the adverse effects of heatwaves on agricultural productivity. Leveraging a unique data set that merges French land registry records with satellite imagery, we show that areas with pronounced land-ownership consolidation face steeper declines in productivity during thermal shocks --i.e., Gross Primary Productivity. We then show that regions with more unequal land distribution exhibit diminished crop diversity, a pattern consistent with a simple model in which the incentives for specialisation exist. We provide new evidence to examine the productivity-resilience trade-off, according to which more unequal regions tend to be more productive in normal times, but less resilient under extreme weather. Our findings have implications for farmers' and policymakers' view on the determinants of optimal agricultural production when considering diversity-trade-offs in the face of the climate change, with direct implications on resilience and stability.

• Tuesday 24 October 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  STRICOT Maëlle (PSE) : Does news coverage of violence against women affect its reporting and judicial treatment? Evidence from French administrative data

  Abstract

  This paper explores how news coverage of violence against women (VAW) affects the reporting and judicial treatment of sexual and domestic violence. I combine high-frequency data on French TV news content with new administrative data on all cases handled by the judicial system in France. Exploiting the quasi-random timing of news in the short run, I find that prosecutors are less likely to dismiss a case after news coverage of VAW crimes. The effect amounts to a 2% increase in prosecutions of perpetrators of VAW in the week following the news coverage, mainly for domestic violence. There is no detectable impact of news on VAW crimes on the propensity to report sexual or domestic violence, but news on law and social affairs relating to VAW leads to a small increase in reporting. The results suggest that the media can influence prosecutors’ decisions, which corresponds to a critical stage in the judicial process as around 80% of complaints are dismissed at this stage. These findings imply that documenting and talking about VAW is important to raise prosecution and combat such violence.

• Tuesday 17 October 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  KAMEL Donia (PSE) : Skin Tone Penalties: Bottom-up Discrimination in Football

  Guillermo Woo-Mora

  Abstract

  This paper investigates colorism, racial discrimination based on skin color, in men’s football. Firstly, using machine learning algorithms, we extract players’ skin tones from online headshots to examine their impact on fan-based ratings and valuations. We find evidence of a skin tone penalty, where darker-skinned players face lower fan-driven market values and ratings. Secondly, using algorithm-based ratings and employing a Difference-in-Discontinuities design with geolocated penalty kicks data, we show that lighter-skinned players enjoy a premium higher by 1.25 standard deviations than their darker-skinned peers, conditional on scoring a penalty. Additionally, we find evidence that non-native players with dark skin face a double penalty. Leveraging the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, we highlight the role of fans’ stadium attendance in algorithm-based results. The findings underscore direct skin tone discrimination in football and highlight fans’ role in perpetuating algorithmic bias.

• Tuesday 10 October 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  BÉZY Thomas : The Incidence of Floods on Residential Real Estate Wealth

  Abstract

  This paper sheds new light on exposure of real estate wealth to flood risks and examines the heterogeneous vulnerability to flooding. Using fine-grained data at the dwelling level in France, I distinguish the exposure of owner-occupied primary residences, rented homes, secondary homes, and vacant units, linking these properties to their owners' disposable incomes and housing wealth. I find that owner-occupied primary residences constitute only 40% of the exposed dwellings and secondary homes represent 20% of the properties at risk. Notably, secondary homes, which make up approximately 10% of the national housing market, are substantially over-represented. The value of at-risk dwellings owned by the top 10% equals the value of exposed dwellings owned by the bottom 45%. While floods can destroy 100% of a household's housing wealth in 30% of cases, most households are left with some remaining housing wealth. In 20% of instances, less than 20% of a household's total housing wealth is exposed to floods, underscoring significant disparities in the impact of natural disasters. I show that these findings have substantial impact on the incidence of three adaptation policies: home buy-back, flood protections and insurance against extreme weather events.

• Tuesday 3 October 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  THESMAR David (MIT) : The Effects of Mandatory Profit-Sharing on Workers and Firms: Evidence from France

  Abstract

  Since 1967, all French firms with more than 100 employees are required to share a fraction of their excess-profits with their employees. Through this scheme, firms with excess-profits distribute on average 10.5% of their pre-tax income to workers. In 1990, the eligibility threshold was reduced to 50 employees. We exploit this regulatory change to identify the effects of mandated profit-sharing on firms and their employees. The cost of mandated profit-sharing for firms is evident in the significant bunching at the 100 employee threshold observed prior to the reform, which completely disappears post-reform. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that, at the firm-level, mandated profit-sharing (a) increases labor share by 1.8 percentage points, (b) reduces the profit share by 1.4 percentage points, and (c) does not affect investment nor pro- ductivity. At the employee level, mandated profit-sharing increases low-skill workers’ total compensation and leaves high-skill workers total compensation unchanged. Over- all, mandated profit-sharing redistributes excess-profits to lower-skill workers in the firm, without generating significant distortions or productivity effects.

• Tuesday 26 September 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  LE GUERN HERRY Ségal (Sciences Po) : Wealth Taxation and Portfolio Allocation at the Top

  Abstract

  How does taxation affect portfolio choices at the top? Leveraging a 2017 reform which transformed the French wealth tax into a real estate tax, I estimate the substitution between real estate and financial wealth once tax rates start to differ for both asset classes. To identify causal effects, I use comprehensive tax returns for France and a difference-in-differences design comparing French taxpayers to non-residents subject to the wealth tax but not affected by the policy change. Five years after the reform, the stock of real estate held by French taxpayers decreased by an average of 4%, with responses driven by investment rather than owner-occupied housing. Less than 10% of taxpayers can account for 100% of the observed decrease in real estate, revealing a strong heterogeneity between a minority of tax planners and a majority of households not responding at all. The decrease in real estate held by tax planners is mirrored by a surge in financial capital income received after the reform, consistent with asset shifting responses to the differential tax change. Interpreted through the lens of a stylized model, my estimates imply a cross-elasticity of 5 between real estate and financial wealth, meaning that a 1 percentage point increase in the wealth tax differential between both asset classes imply a 5% shift from real estate to financial wealth.

• Tuesday 19 September 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  GETHIN Amory (PSE) : Distributional Growth Accounting: Education and the Reduction of Global Poverty, 1980-2022

  Abstract

  This article studies the role played by education in the decline of global poverty. In a companion paper, I estimate that the rise of government redistribution in the form of cash transfers, education, healthcare, and other public services accounts for 30% of worldwide poverty reduction since 1980 (Gethin, 2023). In this paper, I incorporate in this analysis the causal impact of schooling on pretax incomes, combining survey microdata covering 95% of the world’s population with a simple model of education and the wage structure. Private returns to schooling account for 50-60% of global economic growth, 60-70% of income gains among the world’s poorest 20% individuals, and 60-90% of the decline in global gender inequality since 1980. Combining direct redistribution and indirect investment benefits from education brings the total contribution of public policies to global poverty reduction to 50-80% or more.

• Tuesday 12 September 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  HULL Peter (Brown University) : Building Non-Discriminatory Algorithms in Selected Data

  David Arnold and Will Dobbie

  Abstract

  We develop new quasi-experimental tools to understand and build non-discriminatory algorithms when the outcome of interest is only selectively observed. We apply these tools in the pretrial context, where conventional algorithms are built using the pretrial misconduct outcomes of released defendants. Algorithmic discrimination arises in this setting when the algorithmic inputs are systematically different for white and Black defendants with similar pretrial misconduct potential. We show how these conditional input disparities can be measured and eliminated using the quasi-random assignment of bail judges, thereby eliminating algorithmic discrimination. In New York City data, our new non-discriminatory algorithm also generates more accurate predictions by correcting for the selective observability of pretrial misconduct outcomes.

• Tuesday 5 September 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  MOSHRIF Rowaida (PSE) : Does Land Reform Reduce Land Inequality in the long-run: Evidence from 20th Century Egypt

  Abstract

  This study focuses on the long-run impact of land reform on land inequality in Egypt. Using data on land distribution since 1896, I provide the first long-run estimates of land inequality that cover from the late 19th century up to 2020. I found that (1) the 1952 land reform reduced inequality by redistributing land from large landowners to small landowners. I show that the land share of the top 1% decreased from 43% to 27%, while the bottom 90% rose from 28% to 42%. (2) The redistribution was more substantial with the abolition of religious endowments, ‘Waqf’, initially used by large landowners to preserve large property from fragmentation through inheritance.

• Tuesday 27 June 2023 12:30-13:30

  R1-15

  ÁLVARO Zúñiga-Cordero : Globalization, income inequality and political realignment: the transition from a two-party to a multi-party electoral system in Costa Rica

  Abstract

  This study examines the increasing number of electoral parties in democracies worldwide, focusing on the case of Costa Rica. It investigates whether the changing political landscape in the country since 2002 is a response to rising inequality and exposure to globalization (including trade, foreign direct investment, and tourism). Costa Rica has experienced a growth in income inequality since the 1990s and has signed significant Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the United States, China, and the European Union. This project contributes to the literature on globalization and electoral outcomes by exploring political realignment in a developing country with a long democratic tradition. Additionally, it uniquely combines two sets of administrative data at the individual level to analyze the impact of globalization and inequality on electoral outcomes. The findings reveal that districts with higher income inequality exhibit lower voter turnout in presidential and local elections, increased electoral volatility, reduced support for traditional parties, and more support for pro-globalization and conservative parties. A positive but declining correlation between income and turnout emerges when using individual-level data, demonstrating the connection between income changes, and voting behaviour. Hence, this research provides insights into the interplay between globalization, inequality, and electoral outcomes, shedding light on political dynamics in developing democracies and highlighting the implications of income changes on individual voting behaviour and aggregate voter turnout.

• Tuesday 20 June 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.15

  MARTÍNEZ-TOLEDANO Clara (Imperial College London) : High-Net-Worth Individuals and Private Capital Markets

  Abstract

  This paper studies the causes and consequences of the growing importance of high-net-worth individuals in private equity and venture capital markets. Using a combination of novel data sources and differences-in-differences techniques, we find that the US business laws introduced after the global financial crisis (to make it easier for especially small businesses to raise capital and expand) played a major role in explaining the increasing participation of HNWI in private capital markets, particularly in venture capital funds. We also document that companies that raised capital from HNWI grew more relative to the rest of companies, but this differential growth came at the cost of higher income inequality. Finally, we show that the increasing importance of high-net-worth individuals in private capital markets since the global financial crisis is most important in the US, but that this phenomenon is widespread across the globe.

• Tuesday 13 June 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.15

  MO Zhexun : Soldiers versus Laborers: Legacies of Colonial Military Forced Labor in Mali

  Abstract

  In this paper, we study the coercive military forced labor regime instituted by the French colonial authorities in Mali (ex Soudan Français) from 1927 till 1950. Due to endemic labor scarcity, the colonial authorities resorted to activating military reservists as forced labor for public infrastructure construction. By digitizing more 180,000 hand-written individual soldier files as well as colonial-time district conscription tables, we find that historically speaking, the activation of military forced labor was very strongly correlated with local population density and specific demands of various public infrastructure projects. The intensity of forced labor at the time even drove local Africans to evade the system by volunteering more into the regular army. Over the long run, we also find that Malian localities that were historically more exposed to military forced labor (as opposed to regular army recruitment) have displayed lower development outcomes till this day. However, inequalities within these localities have also decreased further, which points to dynamics on long-term persistence of forced labor regimes. These results highlight the importance of understanding the particular historical set-up of extractive colonial institutions, and how this in turn would affect the dynamics of their enduring legacies on development outcomes.

• Tuesday 6 June 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan

  HENGEL Moritz (SciencesPo) : Fact-Checking and Misinformation: Evidence from the Market Leader

  Abstract

  What are the dynamic effects of fact-checking on the behavior of those who circulate misinformation and on the spread of false news? To address this question, we build a unique partnership with the “Agence France Presse” (AFP), the largest fact-checking organization in the world. We collected for a year, during the daily editorial meetings, the stories proposed by journalists, some of which are ultimately fact-checked while others, despite been “similar”, are left aside due to a lack of resources. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach, we show that Facebook posts related to stories that are fact-checked circulate less compared to stories that were considered but not ultimately fact-checked. This effect disappears when the rating is a warning (partly false, missing context) rather than a more prominent false flag. Moreover, using within fact-checked stories post-level variations, and taking advantage of the fact that journalists, due to a time constraint, do not rate all the posts associated to a story, we document that circulation of posts receiving an ambiguous rating increases after the fact check is published, as well as other interactions (comments and likes) with the post. This suggests a backfiring effect fuelled by reactions to the rating.

• Tuesday 30 May 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  TARTOVA Desislava (PSE) : Teacher Value-Added in the Absence of Annual Test Scores: Utilising Teacher Networks

  Abstract

  I develop a novel method for estimating teacher value added which controls for non-random student-teacher sorting without having to control for lagged grades in standardised tests. To do so, I exploit networks'' of teachers - teachers from the same subject who are observed in classrooms with a unique link'' teacher from another subject. I measure the relative value added of two teachers in a network as the difference between their classrooms' grades in a standardised exam, unexplained by student characteristics, correcting for the classrooms' grade differential in the subject of the link teacher. I show that the estimated teacher effects are unbiased under plausible assumptions that I confirm in the data. Using exhaustive French administrative data, I find that a 1 SD increase in teacher value added within school improves student scores by 0.17 SD in Math and 0.16 SD in French.

• Tuesday 23 May 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus jourdan

  NEDREGARD Oda (BI Norwegian Business School) : Speech is Silver, Silence is Gold: Trade-offs between local and collective representation

  Abstract

  How does strong party discipline affect MPs’ willingness to represent local interests during times of distress? This paper uses parliamentary speech from Norway together with unique data on parliamentary attendance and politicians’ travels to study how local economic hardship, proxied by unemployment, shapes legislators’ representational efforts in national parliament. Contrary to what one would expect, I find that MPs deliver significantly fewer speeches and talk less about unemployment during economic downturns. Using word embeddings together with recently developed methods to identify choices in high-dimensional data, I show that, conditional on speaking, MPs tend to deviate more in floor speeches when their districts are in distress. Such deviations are favoured by local voters, but penalized financially by the party. These results demonstrate how it can be rational for party elites in well-functioning democracies to restrict MPs from representing local interests because they want to prevent deviations from the party line from compromising the party brand.

• Tuesday 16 May 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  YANG Li (University of Michigan and BREAD) : The long-run political effects of refugee shock: Evidence from post-WWII Germany

  Abstract

  Given the exciting emerging literature on long-run impact of massive forced (im)migration on economic growth and education, the impact of forced migration on people’s political attitude towards to immigrants remains largely unexplored. We contribute to the literature by exploring the persistent impact of one of the largest displacements in human history: the eight million ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. Using both district and municipality level data, we identified significant positive impact of forced migration on today’s extreme voting and anti immigrant/refugees sentiment. Our results are significant though various robustness check. Furthermore, using a unique data set from SOEP (Social and Economic Panel of Germany), we are able to for the first time explore in detail the impact channels of the force migration. Two main findings are in order. First, the second generation of forced migrants (about 17% of the total adult population) are more likely to be anti-immigrant/refugees, this is opposite to the first generation of forced migrants. Second, overall, we find positive but not significant effect of forced migration on extreme voting and anti-immigrant/refugees sentiments of the local German (who is not first or second generation of forced migrants). However, people from the district with high unemployment rate of the forced migrants in 1950, are significantly more likely to vote for Afd and have anti-immigrant/refugees sentiments. Additionally, we also provide several piece of evidence supporting the contact hypothesis. We find in the district with high share of forced migrant tenants, people are less likely to vote for Afd.

• Tuesday 9 May 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-21

  RIBERTH Jonatan (Stockholm University) : Medical scandals and vaccine hesitancy

  Abstract

  In this paper we consider the effects on vaccine hesitancy and health care utilization from an unusual medical scandal. Following the 2009–2010 swine flu pandemic, a small number of individuals developed narcolepsy, a severe neurological disease, as a result of vaccination against the swine flu. We use new individual level data on covid and swine flu vaccinations to measure vaccine hesitancy among the affected individuals. We find a lower covid vaccine uptake among individuals that are exposed to the individuals that developed narcolepsy. These effects are large. Family members of the affected individuals have a 10 percentage point lower covid vaccine uptake. We conclude that previous health scandals can have a lasting impact on future uptake of vaccines which in turn bears relevance for how fast vaccines should be rolled out.

• Tuesday 2 May 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  SCHÜTZ Rafael : Does it Take a Stick to Eat a Carrot? Estimating the Animal Welfare Impacts of Food Consumption and Pigouvian Pricing

  Abstract

  Combining 35 years of household expenditure surveys and aggregate food supply data from the United Kingdom, we compute the animal welfare footprint of consumers' food purchases. Focusing on the extensive margin, we consider three indicators of animal welfare: (1) meat and fish purchase quantities; (2) the number of slaughtered animals and caught fish; (3) the second indicator, weighted by species-specific neuron counts. Throughout the whole time frame (1985 to 2019), there is a large dispersion in animal welfare footprints across individuals. We fit a demand system to simulate the effects of two Pigouvian pricing interventions on aggregate animal welfare and greenhouse gas emissions: carbon pricing of food and an animal welfare levy as envisaged by the German government. Both interventions are predicted to reduce emissions and substantially improve aggregate animal welfare.

• Tuesday 25 April 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  GYLFASON Gísli (PSE) : From Tweets to the Streets: Twitter and Protest Participation in the United States

  Abstract

  This paper investigates whether social media can influence the landscape of political protests beyond the size and frequency of protest events. Using early adoption of Twitter at the 2007 South by Southwest (SXSW) festival as a plausibly exogenous source of variation in county-level Twitter penetration, I find that Twitter penetration increases protest frequency in the United States substantially. I show that the effect is stronger for protest movements where coordination is more challenging, due to the scale of the coordination problem or when organizational capacities are low. However, these heterogeneous effects are not large enough to imply drastic changes in the protest landscape. I do not find evidence for heterogeneous effects depending on the topic of protest. Finally, I find that Twitter penetration increases the relative frequency of the use of violence or attempts at suppression by non-government groups during protest events. I find evidence suggesting that social media increases violence during protest events by easing coordination among those opposing the protest.

• Tuesday 18 April 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  MESLIN Olivier : How Much is your Home Worth? Estimating Housing Wealth using French Administrative Data.

  Mathias André (Insee)

  Abstract

  This paper extends a recent exhaustive database on housing assets owned by French households (Andre and Meslin 2021) by providing estimates of gross housing wealth of French households, based on administrative data. These estimates are obtained in two steps. The market value of all privately-held dwellings located in metropolitan France is estimated using an innovative housing asset valuation methodology. These market value estimates are then combined with the database introduced in Andre and Meslin 2021 to compute gross housing wealth for each household. The asset valuation methodology used in this paper relies on recent machine learning algorithms trained on an exhaustive database of real estate transactions. This methodology reflects accurately the geographical heterogeneity of the real estate markets in metropolitan France and consistently outperforms more traditional econometric approaches (such as hedonic price models). Moreover, we demonstrate that this methodology can reliably be used to estimate housing wealth at both household level and aggregate level. Housing wealth concentration estimates derived from this database are slightly higher than the one derived from wealth surveys. The paper makes three different contributions. First, it highlights several significant methodological contributions of machine learning algorithms compared to more traditional econometric methods. Second, it introduces a new database on housing wealth, opening way to further research. Third, it produces new results on the total amount, distribution and concentration of housing wealth of French households.

• Tuesday 11 April 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  HUBER Kilian (University of Chicago Booth) : Disaggregated Economic Accounts

  Abstract

  We develop and analyze a new system of disaggregated economic accounts. The system breaks down national accounting positions into bilateral flows among consistently defined subgroups of consumers (“consumer cells”), subgroups of producers (“producer cells”), the government, and the rest of the world. We disaggregate the full circular flow of money, including consumption, labor compensation, firm surplus, foreign trade, taxes, and trade in intermediates. The measurement is comprehensive, so that the disaggregated flows add up to national aggregates and fulfill all national accounting identities. We implement the disaggregated system for small region-by-industry cells in Denmark. We present new facts on the structure of disaggregated flows across the economy, for example that spending flows into cities, city residents spend more abroad, and the government on net transfers resources into cities. Using a macroeconomic model, we highlight that disaggregated economic accounts change our understanding of shock propagation in general equilibrium. In particular, we find that the structure of disaggregated flows shapes the aggregate and distributional consequences of export demand shocks.

• Tuesday 4 April 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-02

  SORIA ESPIN Javier (PSE) : Intergenerational mobility and the role of internal migration: new evidence from Spain

  Abstract

  In this paper, I provide the first estimates of intergenerational income mobility in Spain based on new, rich administrative data linking millions of parents and children through tax returns. Three main results arise. First, Spain is located somewhere in the middle between high-mobility countries such as Sweden or Switzerland and low-mobility ones such as the United States, Brazil, or Italy. Second, leveraging the high granularity of the data together with a unique dataset of municipality-level variables, I reveal a high degree of geographical variation explained, to a large extent, by differences in the local characteristics of the areas in which children grow up. Third, exploiting the Spanish context, one of the countries with the highest rates of internal migration in Europe, I show that this type of migration is a powerful driver of upward mobility, with an average effect that amounts to almost 20% of per capita national income (around 9 income percentiles) for low-income background children.

• Tuesday 28 March 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  MOREAU-KASTLER Ninon (ENS Paris-Saclay) : Due Diligence and Legal Havens: Conflict Minerals Exports in Africa’s Great Lake Region

  Abstract

  This paper studies how « conflict minerals » trade flows react to due diligence policies imposing sourcing guidelines for importers, in the presence of legal havens. Dodd-Frank Act Conflict Mineral Rule (2010) imposed sourcing disclosure and name and shame for U.S. importers using 3T (tantalum, tin and tungsten) from conflict areas in Democratic Republic of the Congo and neighbouring countries. Comparing treated 3T trade flows to non-treated products and non-treated exporters within the structural gravity framework, I find that this policy decreased DRC and neighbours 3T exports value, creating a new trade barrier for these exporters. However, 3T flows are diverted to legal havens. Legal havens are countries adopting laws allowing economic agents to « hide illicit activity and to exempt themselves from legal obligations linked to their economic activities ». After the Dodd-Frank Act, D.R.C. and neighboring countries export share of 3T to legal havens increases. 3T trade flows also increase from legal havens to the United States after 2010, which could point to regulation avoidance.

• Tuesday 21 March 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  MIHO Antonela : Small screen, big echo? Estimating the political persuasion of local television news bias using the Sinclair Broadcasting Group as a natural experiment

  Abstract

  This paper investigates the heterogeneous effect of biased local TV news on political outcomes and opinions in the United States, exploiting the timing of the introduction of biased programming of a conservative-leaning broadcasting company, Sinclair Broadcast Group, over the years 1992-2020. First, I document Sinclair's pattern of bias to argue its local news programming exhibits a conservative slant since the 2004 election, though they operate stations since 1971. Using an event study methodology estimated through a two way fixed effect model, I argue that the within county evolution of electoral outcomes would have been the same, absent the change in Sinclair's content. I find that the county-level response to Sinclair bias on electoral outcomes is heterogeneous across time. Exposure to the change in biased content since 2004 corresponds to a 2.5% point increase in the Republican presidential two party vote share during the 2012 election, an effect that doubles during the 2016/2020 election, in addition to Republican gains in Congress in that same period. The associated persuasion rates are 4.7% of its potential audience in 2008-2012, and 14.4% in 2016-2020. Interactions with county characteristics reveal that the effect is concentrated among “isolated” counties, in contrast to economic factors. Individual level survey data reveals a congruent 8% and 10% point increase in the probability to vote for the Republican (presidential and congressional) candidate in 2016. Individual mechanisms suggest educational heterogeneity in the a rise in (self-declared) xenophobic attitudes and tolerance for racial inequality, yet no increases in support for traditionally Republican policy positions or populist rhetoric. A series of robustness checks rule out competing explanations. The totality of our results suggest that political persuasion is a dynamic process that is sensitive to environmental and personal characteristics.

• Tuesday 14 March 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  IRAIZOZ Ander : Incidence and Avoidance Effects of Spatial Fuel Tax Differentials: Evidence using Regional Tax Variation in Spain

  José M. Labeaga

  Abstract

  In this paper, we study the effect of spatial tax differentials on fuel tax pass-though and sales responses. We use two-way fixed effects methods to exploit regional variation in diesel excise taxes in Spain. Using a dataset containing daily diesel prices for the universe of petrol stations in Spain, we find that diesel tax pass-through is asymmetric depending on the sign of tax differentials with bordering regions. Petrol stations bordering with lower tax regions pass-through only 56% of fuel taxes, petrol stations bordering with higher tax regions pass-through 120% of fuel taxes. We provide evidence to attribute the asymmetric spatial incidence of fuel taxes to the market power given by the competitive tax advantage relative to competitors. Furthermore, we use diesel sales data aggregated at the province level and we find significant spatial tax avoidance responses to regional fuel tax differentials.

• Tuesday 28 February 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  FABRE Antoine : Fighting Climate Change: International Attitudes Toward Climate Policies

  Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Tobias Kruse, Bluebery Planterose, Ana Sanchez Chico, and Stefanie Stantcheva

  Abstract

  Using new surveys on more than 40,000 respondents in twenty countries that account for 72% of global CO2 emissions, we study the understanding of and attitudes toward climate change and climate policies. We show that, across countries, support for climate policies hinges on three key perceptions centered around the effectiveness of the policies in reducing emissions (effectiveness concerns), their distributional impacts on lower-income households (inequality concerns), and their impact on the respondents' household (self-interest). We show experimentally that information specifically addressing these key concerns can substantially increase the support for climate policies in many countries. Explaining how policies work and who can benefit from them is critical to foster policy support, whereas simply informing people about the impacts of climate change is not effective. Furthermore, we identify several socioeconomic and lifestyle factors -- most notably education, political leanings, and availability of public transportation -- that are significantly correlated with both policy views and overall reasoning and beliefs about climate policies. However, it is difficult to predict beliefs or policy views based on these characteristics only.

• Tuesday 21 February 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  ELASS Kenza (Aix-Marseille Université) : What do women want in a job? Gender-biased preferences and the reservation wage gap

  Abstract

  Recent explanations of the gender wage gap emphasize the role of gender differences in psychological traits. Nevertheless, there have been only a limited number of studies confirming the relevance of these factors for labour market outcomes. This paper assesses the role of gender-specific preferences in the reservation wage gap during the job search. I use French administrative data from the unemployment insurance agency providing information on job search behaviour and previous outcomes to assess which kind of occupations men and women apply for and the gap in their reservation wages. Employing text analysis, I build a novel dataset classifying occupations with respect to a number of characteristics and examine to which extent men and women differ in the occupation they are looking for. I document widespread gender differences in the occupation characteristics targeted by job seekers. Quantile decomposition methods allow me to document an unequal gap in reservation wage, intensifying along the distribution. After adjusting for occupation characteristics reflecting gender-biased preferences and household constraints, the unexplained part of the reservation wage gap is decreased by half. Investigating unemployment history and outcomes from previous interviews with firms, I do not find evidence of a female risk aversion to previous unemployment shocks or male overconfidence.

• Tuesday 14 February 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  BASELGIA Enea ( University of St. Gallen) : Behavioral Responses to Special Tax Regimes for the Super-Rich: Insights from Swiss Rich Lists

  Isabel Z. Martínez (ETH Zurich)

  Abstract

  We collect, digitize, and supplement Swiss rich lists published in the “BILANZ” business magazine since 1989, to gain new insights on the structure and dynamics of top wealth in Switzerland. We show that 60% of the super-rich are heirs—a fraction twice as large than in the US, where many super-rich are self-made—and that half of the super-rich residing in Switzerland are foreign-born. Based on this new dataset, we estimate the sensitivity of the location choice of super-rich foreigners to a preferential tax scheme, under which wealthy foreigners are taxed on their expenses, rather than their true income and wealth. We are the first to evaluate this infamous policy (which bears similarities with “non-dom” taxation in the UK or Italy), and show that when some Swiss cantons abolished this practice, their stock of super-rich foreigners dropped by 30% as a consequence. We find no response for the unaffected Swiss super-rich.

• Tuesday 7 February 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  ZUCMAN Gabriel (PSE) : Real-Time Inequality

  Thomas Blanchet (University of California), Emmanuel Saez (University of California, Berkeley)

  Abstract

  This paper constructs high-frequency and timely income distributions for the United States. We develop a methodology to combine the information contained in high-frequency public data sources—including monthly household and employment surveys, quarterly censuses of employment and wages, and monthly and quarterly national accounts statistics—in a unified framework. This allows us to estimate economic growth by income groups, race, and gender consistent with quarterly releases of macroeconomic growth, and to track the distributional impacts of government policies during and in the aftermath of recessions in real time. We test and successfully validate our methodology by implementing it retrospectively back to 1976. Analyzing the Covid-19 pandemic, we find that all income groups recovered their pre-crisis pretax income level within 20 months of the beginning of the recession. Although the recovery was primarily driven by jobs rather than wage growth, real wages experienced significant gains at the bottom of the distribution in 2021 and 2022, highlighting the equalizing effects of tight labor markets. After accounting for taxes and cash transfers, real disposable income for the bottom 50% was nearly 20%higher in 2021 than in 2019, but fell in 2022 as the expansion of the welfare state during the pandemic was rolled back. All estimates are available at https://realtimeinequality.org and are updated with each quarterly release of the national accounts, within a few hours.

• Tuesday 31 January 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  GÜNTHER Laurenz (University of Bonn) : Political Representation Gaps in Europe

  Abstract

  Do parliaments in representative democracies represent the policy attitudes of their voters? I examine this question using both data on the policy attitudes of 2,074 parliamentarians and 31,461 citizens who are representative of 27 European countries and a novel estimation framework that I validate with referendum data. I find large and systematic “representation gaps.” Parliaments are more progressive on cultural issues than voters in nearly all countries. On economic issues, they tend to be more market-oriented than voters, but this result varies by country. These results are at odds with the standard assumption of vote-share maximizing politicians. I theoretically and empirically explain the existence of representation gaps through a perceived competence advantage of some politicians that enables them to implement their preferred policies. Representation gaps help explain distrust in democracy and the existence of populist parties, which fill representation gaps. These findings suggest that reversing the rise of populism and increasing trust in democratic institutions requires established parties to close representation gaps. Finally, it informs policymakers on how to reposition themselves to do so.

• Tuesday 24 January 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  OLIVEIRA Florentine (PSE) : The Minimum Wage and the Wage Distribution in Portugal

  Abstract

  Raising the minimum wage can reshape the wage distribution. In Portugal, a sustained rise in the minimum wage over 13 years coincided with a decline in inequality that was equivalent to the US increase in inequality of the 1980s and 90s. Using a semiparametric approach, counterfactual decomposition methods, and an extremely rich administrative dataset of all employees in the country, this paper presents significant visual and quantitative evidence of how changes in the minimum wage shaped the wage distribution over the last three decades. The remarkable minimum wage rise of 2006-19 triggered a compression of the lower half of the wage distribution that was equivalent to the full decline in wage inequality. The rise explained 40% of average wage growth. Spillover effects generated wage gains up to the 54th percentile, explaining more than half of this inequality-reducing effect. Like in many European countries, most workers benefit from collectively bargained wage floors above the national minimum. Wage floors did not react to the rising minimum wage but firms proactively raised wages higher up in the distribution in order to maintain job title premiums, suggesting that spillovers were not contingent on a heavily institutionalised labour market.

• Tuesday 17 January 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  RASTER Tom : Breaking the ice: The persistent effect of pioneers on trade relationships

  Abstract

  There is substantially less trade than is theoretically predicted, and many countries do not trade at all with each other. Pioneers - first movers to new markets - are hypothesized to play an important role in establishing lasting trade relationships and a country 'self-discovering' its comparative advantage. This paper offers a first causal test of the role of pioneers, drawing on millions of captain voyages between the Baltic and North Sea between 1500 and 1855. For identification, I rely on drastic year-to-year variation in sea ice, which exogenously re-routes captains to towns they or their peers had not previously visited. I find that once (randomly) exposed to a new port, captains and their townspeople are very likely to return to this town and that trade flows and the export mix are lastingly altered. These findings highlight the importance of pioneers and policies, such as export promotion, that foster them.

• Tuesday 10 January 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21

  STOSTAD Morten : The Consequences of Inequality: Beliefs and Redistributive Preferences

  Max Lobeck

  Abstract

  What are the societal consequences of economic inequality, and how do concerns for these consequences affect individuals' redistributive preferences? This paper examines beliefs about how economic inequality changes society, and establishes a causal link between such inequality externality beliefs and redistributive preferences. Using two representative surveys of a combined 6,731 U.S. citizens, we show that a majority of respondents believe that inequality leads to negative societal outcomes through channels such as increased crime, deteriorating democratic institutions, and diminished economic growth. We establish a causal link from individuals' inequality externality beliefs to their redistributive preferences by using exogenously provided video information treatments. With this and other methods we estimate that inequality externality beliefs are about two-thirds as impactful for individuals' redistributive preferences as broad economic fairness views. Although Democrats are more likely to believe in the negative consequences of inequality than Republicans, beliefs are surprisingly similar across political parties and less polarized than comparable fairness views. Inequality externality-based arguments cause less anger among respondents than fairness-based arguments, however, indicating structural differences in the two types of arguments.

• Tuesday 3 January 2023 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  GOUPILLE-LEBRET Jonathan (ENS LYON) : Tax Design, Information, and Elasticities: Evidence From the French Wealth Tax

  Bertrand GARBINTI (CREST), Mathilde MUNOZ (UC Berkeley), Stefanie STANTCHEVA (Harvard University), and Gabriel ZUCMAN (UC Berkeley)

  Abstract

  We study a reform of the French wealth tax that dramatically reduced the amount of information that taxpayers must self-report below a certain level of wealth. Combining administrative micro-data with dynamic bunching and difference-in-differences approaches, we find large behavioral responses to this switch to a low-information regime. The reform caused a 0.5 percentage points average decrease in the annual growth rate of wealth reported by treated taxpayers each year following the switch to the low-information regime. This reduction is driven by a 4 percentage points decrease for taxpayers bunching at the information discontinuity threshold. Consistent with opacity leading to lower compliance, treated households do not experience a real change in their (third-party) reported labor and capital income. The wealth tax base becomes much more elastic in the low-information regime, illustrating the first-order role of information policy choices for tax base elasticities.

• Tuesday 13 December 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  HARHOFF ANDERSEN Lars (University of Copenhagen) : Collective memory: Evidence from first names

  joint with Tom Raster (PSE)

  Abstract

  How do historical events change individuals' values, and when do they enter collective memory? A fundamental problem is measuring values when surveys are lacking. To tackle this problem, a promising recent literature uses first names as proxies for values, however, we argue and demonstrate that the scope and systematization of this approach can be broadened. To this end, we develop new methods to derive a broad set of values from first names. Our methods leverage parents’ tendency to name their children for groups in society that they sympathize with because those groups represent their values. Drawing on all available US full-count censuses, we use professions (e.g., military personnel, entrepreneurs, or scientists) as indicators for different values (e.g., militarism, entrepreneurialism, or scientific values). For each first name in the censuses, we measure how associated it is with a given profession and, thus, which values it represents. We then merge the value measure of first names with the names parents give their children. This provides us with proxies of values for millions of US parents from 1790 to 1940. Furthermore, the rich information in the censuses allows us to differentiate the effect of values we measure from those of occupation, geography, and demography. We then turn to applying our first-name based value measure. First, we show that the effect of early Irish and Scottish migration on today’s crime rates, as described in Grosjean (2014), disappears once we control for differences in military values. In a second application, we demonstrate that the experience and collective memory of fighting in the American Civil War affects military values in the following decades.

• Tuesday 6 December 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  PLANTEROSE Bluebery (PSE) : Who Owns Offshore Real Estate? Evidence from Dubai

  Annette Alstadsæter (NMBU), Andreas Økland (NMBU) and Gabriel Zucman (UC Berkeley)

  Abstract

  This paper analyzes a unique micro-dataset capturing the ownership of about 800,000 properties in Dubai. We use this dataset to document patterns in cross-border real estate investments, a blind spot in the analysis of financial globalization. We obtain four main findings. First, offshore real estate in Dubai is large: at least $146 billion in foreign wealth is invested in the Dubai property market. Second, geographical proximity and historic ties are key determinants of foreign investments in Dubai. About 20% of offshore Dubai real estate is owned by investors from India and 10% by investors from the United Kingdom; other large investing countries include Pakistan, Gulf countries, Iran, Canada, Russia, and the United States. These patterns hold when focusing on the most affluent neighborhoods, with the main difference that Indian investments become relatively smaller and Russian investments larger. Third, a number of conflict-ridden countries and autocracies have large holdings in Dubai relative to the size of their economy, equivalent to 5%–10% of their GDP. This suggests that the official net foreign asset position of a number of low- income economies is significantly under-estimated. Last, by matching properties owned by Norwegians to administrative tax records in Norway, we find that the probability to own offshore real estate rises with wealth, including within the very top of the wealth distribution. About 70% of Dubai properties owned by Norwegian taxpayers were not reported for tax purposes in 2019. These results suggest that the lack of cross-border exchange of information on real estate ownership is a significant issue for tax enforcement.

• Tuesday 29 November 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09

  WOO MORA Guillermo (PSE) : On the other side of the creek: The persistence and evolution of colonial ethno-racial segregation

  Abstract

  This paper exploits a natural experiment of indigenous zoning in colonial Mexico to show evidence of the long-term effects of ethno-racial segregation on within-city sorting patterns. Guadalajara city was divided into two settlements in its colonial foundation: one for the Spaniards and Indigenous colonists and the second for the region's Indigenous population. Divided by a creek, there were no formal institutions or location fundamentals differences between the settlements. I use a historical census to show that individuals with lower caste and social status agglomerated in the indigenous zoning area, even when the zoning policy was not strictly enforced. Moreover, I use recent block-level data and a Geographic Regression Discontinuity design to show that contemporary blocks in the indigenous zoning area have lower years of schooling and household asset index. The mechanisms are the unequal provision of public goods and amenities.

• Tuesday 22 November 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.15, Campus Jourdan

  REUTZEL Fabian (PSE) : Internet Access and Educational Attainment: Evidence from India

  Felix Rusche (University of Mannheim)

  Abstract

  Expansion of internet access to disadvantaged groups has been promoted in many developing countries to foster economic growth and equalize opportunities. While education is a key vehicle for economic mobility, evidence on the effects of internet access on educational opportunities remains scarce and inconclusive. Exploiting a massive shock to internet access across all of India and drawing on geocoded data, we investigate whether internet access has reshaped educational disparities. Exploiting both time and spatial variation by combining a DiD approach with a spatial RDD approach (Dell, 2010), we find significant negative effects for internet access on educational attainment which exhibit strong heterogeneity along multiple dimensions. Effects are larger for girls and negative effects are driven by more advantaged children, i.e. those of higher castes and whose parents have higher levels of education. On the other hand, we find positive effects for Muslims, a strongly disadvantaged group with little economic mobility (Asher et al., 2021). Results are confirmed when resorting to DiD approach with a restricted sample of individuals close to the internet coverage area’s border (Hjort and Poulsen, 2019) as well as by a district-level analysis using a DiD approach with continuous treatment (Callaway et al., 2021). Further, we exploit potential channels driving these results such as attitudes towards women, fertility and labor force participation.

• Tuesday 15 November 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09

  RICKNE Johanna (Stockholm University) : The class ceiling in politics

  Abstract

  The working class is under-represented in political office worldwide. We study factors that help workers enter and advance in politics by leveraging detailed microdata from Sweden, a best performer in this aspect of democracy. We document that workers in politics face a “class ceiling” in the form of a smaller likelihood to advance from lower to higher office conditional on observable measurements of qualifications. While trade unions are important vehicles for workers’ entry and advancement in politics, even strong union ties do not fully compensate for the class ceiling. We end with a broader discussion about factors that may have shifted segments of the working class from political mobilization into parties on the ideological left toward mobilization for the radical right.

• Tuesday 8 November 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  BONNEAU Cécile (PSE) : Competitive Educational Environment and Female Students’ Success:Evidence from the French Elite Scientific Higher Education

  Léa Dousset

  Abstract

  Despite an increase in women’s educational attainment, they remain largely underrepresented in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). This selection between majors partly explains the gender pay gap, but little is known about the persistence and success of female students who decide to pursue STEM studies and careers. In this paper, we use a novel comprehensive administrative dataset on highly selective STEM programs in France to study the relative performance of male and female students’ in a real-life competitive scientific educational environment. Although they self-select more than male students to enter these selective STEM programs, we show that female students benefit less from the competitive environments created by the organization of these programs than their male counterparts. We find that a higher level of competitiveness reduces the chances of female students relative to male students to enter the most selective engineering schools by about 10 to 20 percent. We investigate potential mechanisms explaining this gap.

• Tuesday 25 October 2022 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, R1.09

  LOCKS Gedeão (University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) : Behavioral Responses to Inheritance Taxes: Evidence from Brazil

  Abstract

  In this paper, I examine behavioral responses to inheritances and gifts taxes in Brazil using inheritance tax microdata (2014-2020). Using bunching and differencesin-differences (DD) techniques, I provide compelling evidence that individuals react to tax hikes by re-timing their wealth transfers. I leverage intra-national variation from six reforms that modified the inheritances and gifts tax design to identify how they shape individual responses. I find that anticipatory effects respond mostly to the underlying variation in gifts taxes and changes in the tax system (flat versus progressive rates). Moreover, I use the DD approach to investigate the reform’s medium-run effects. I find that evasion increased, as the number of declared bequests dropped substantially after the reforms were implemented. I rule out the possibility that this effect is driven by migration. Lastly, I find that that reforms did not impact inheritance and gift tax revenues up to 5 years after the reform implementation. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that roughly 30% of the projected tax revenue increase is lost through re-timing responses.

• Tuesday 18 October 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  RICHARD Marion (PSE) : Who Feels Poor? Transitions into Poverty and Subjective Well-Being

  Abstract

  Identifying who is poor with the help of meaningful poverty lines is of major interest from a public policy perspective. Yet, the level of monetary poverty line at 60% used by most OECD countries is never discussed. Using detailed panel administrative data for France, I question the level of this threshold by comparing the income trajectories of households to the evolution of their well-being, and I find that individuals’ satisfaction is not affected by transitions into poverty at 60% of the median income. I show that falling below 80% of the median income leads to a significant drop in satisfaction for respondents, thus making this threshold a subjective line of poverty. Extending the analysis to a set of countries, I find the same result for Australian households, but not for British and German households, whose well-being exhibits a different profile around negative income shocks.

• Tuesday 11 October 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  IGNACIO MERCATANTE Juan (PSE) : Food access or energy security? The case of biofuels in Argentina

  Abstract

  Biofuels are an alternative source of energy that is renewable and less polluting than traditional fuels. However, their production is strongly linked to food access conditions since it requires the use of primary inputs that could be alternatively used for food production. The most widely applied policy around the world regarding biofuels is the mandatory blend of fuels and biofuels in a fixed proportion set by the law. This work proposes the application of a new biofuel policy: the flexible blend. The idea behind this proposal is to exploit the substitutability between fossil fuels and biofuels to improve the productive, distributive, and environmental performance of the economy. It is also addressed the impact of this flexible blend in terms of energy security and food access. The first research question is: how does the flexible blend performs compared to other biofuel mandates under a business-as-usual scenario? The second one is: how do these types of blends react under different contexts? I evaluate four scenarios: (i) an increase in the international price of oil, (ii) an increase in the international price of agricultural commodities, (iii) a carbon tax, and (iv) a fall in the productivity of the agricultural sector (i.e., drought or floods). For that purpose, I have developed a Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated with an own elaborated Social Accounting Matrix of Argentina in 2018. The main results suggest that a flexible blend has positive impact on the economic activity and the national welfare. Moreover, it improves energy and food access conditions to households. Finally, this flexible energy policy allows cushioning the unwanted effects of different external socks and other domestic policies.

• Tuesday 4 October 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan

  ÖZGÜZEL Cem (CES & IZA) : Trusting Immigrants

  Cevat Giray Aksoy (King’s College London)

  Abstract

  We consider the role of early life experience in shaping political trust. We focus on immigrants encountering different political institutions in their native country and country of immigration. Individuals exposed to higher levels of political corruption before migrating vest more trust in the political institutions of their new country. We interpret this in terms of Kahneman and Tversky’s reference-point thesis, according to which corruption in an immigrant’s home country serves as a reference point for evaluating corruption in the host country. Large differences in levels of income and democracy in the immigrant’s countries of origin and destination amplify the impact of home-country corruption on evaluations of institutional performance in the destination country. Media exposure providing independent information about institutional performance in the destination country diminishes the effect.

• Tuesday 27 September 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  KNEBELMANN Justine (Sciences Po) : Widening the Tax Net when Information is Scarce: the Role of Agents’ Discretion

  Victor Pouliquen (Oxford), Bassirou Sarr (Ministry of Finance, Senegal)

  Abstract

  Administrations in developing countries are challenged by the lack of comprehensive information to successfully implement policies that require individual-level tailoring, such as taxation. In collaboration with the Senegalese national tax administration, we developed a property tax census program relying on a new digital tool, currently being rolled-out at scale in Dakar. We experimentally vary the extent to which agents have discretion in the valuation of the tax base: in “discretionary” areas, agents use their own judgement to estimate property values, while in “formula” areas predicted property values are computed based on observable characteristics. Using certified real estate assessments as a benchmark for the true value of the tax base, we study how rules versus discretion compare in terms of targeting, valuations, and equity, and try to characterize the types of agent biases that are at play.

• Tuesday 20 September 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  DOMÈNECH ARUMÍ Gerard : Measuring Inequality with Cadastral Data: The Reasons Why and Three Applications

  Abstract

  I measure and study housing inequality with cadastral data. Cadastral data is ideal for studying inequality due to at least four reasons: (1) relevance of housing as an asset and consumption good throughout the income distribution; (2) homogeneity of the data and replicability across settings; (3) independence of administrative boundaries; and (4) facility to study inequality dynamics from cross-sectional data. I illustrate these advantages through three applications. The first application provides novel estimates of housing inequality in Massachusetts across different levels of aggregation and over time. The second application studies the relationship between local inequality and perceived national-level inequality in Barcelona (Spain) by introducing a novel inequality measure capturing housing disparities in the surroundings of a building. The third application analyzes the long-run consequences of inheritance customs before the French Revolution on housing characteristics in France today. In ongoing and future work, I will produce housing inequality estimates at different aggregations and over time for the rest of the US, Belgium, and Spain. I will publish them on a website for policymakers and inequality researchers to freely use.

• Tuesday 13 September 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  FRANÇOIS Manon (PSE) : The complexity of multinational entreprises and tax avoidance

  Vincent Vicard (CEPII)

  Abstract

  Does the complexity of multinational enterprises’ (MNEs) ownership structure serve tax avoidance? We use cross-country firm-level data to show that affiliates belonging to more complex MNEs are more likely to bunch around zero profit, consistent with complexity enabling tax avoidance by multinational firms. Our results show that only more complex MNEs shift profits away from their high-tax affiliates, while MNEs with flat ownership structures do not display such pattern. Our analysis also shows that affiliates directly held through tax havens are more likely to report zero profit than other affiliates in more complex MNEs.

• Tuesday 6 September 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  HUANG Yuchen (PSE) : What motivates political and charitable donations? Evidence from a survey experiment

  Julia Cagé and Moritz Hengel

  Abstract

  In many countries, both charitable and political donations benefit from generous - and often similar - tax incentives. While a large literature has studied the tax-price elasticity of charitable giving, little is known on political donations. Using a large-scale survey experiment runned one week before the French Presidential elections, we study the characteristics of the donors, in particular whether they know the existing tax schemes and investigate whether it varies depending on political preferences. We show in particular that - conditional on controlling for a large set of covariates, far-right voters tend to give less to charities, but not to political parties. We then investigate the relative efficiency of different tax schemes, and document that repealing the existing non refundable income-tax credit decreases charitable donations but not the political ones, pointing toward more fiscal incentives behind charitable giving. Matching increases the amount received by both political parties and charities.

• Tuesday 28 June 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09 PSE

  LANDAIS Camille (LSE) : Wealth and Property Taxation in the United States

  Sacha Dray, Stefanie Stantcheva

  Abstract

  We study the history and geography of wealth accumulation in the US, using newly collected historical property tax records since the early 1800s. The property tax in the US was a comprehensive tax on all kinds of properties (real estate, personal property, and financial wealth), making it one of the first “wealth taxes.” Our new data allows us to reconstruct wealth series at the city, county, and state levels over time and to study the effects of property taxes on property values, migration, and investment. We first document the long-term evolution of household wealth in the US since the early 1800s, offering new fine-grained and high-frequency estimates of household wealth over a long period of time. The US had significantly lower wealth than Europe and only caught up with Europe after WW1, despite GDP per capita having been larger than that of France or the UK since the late 1870s. Second, we study the spatial allocation of wealth in the US over the long run. The geography of wealth is highly persistent and factors related to geography and demographics correlate strongly with wealth at the city, county, and state levels. Finally, we study the role of the property tax (i.e., a “wealth tax”) on wealth accumulation, using the large variation in property tax rates across more than 300 municipalities. We find an implied elasticity of capital income with respect to the net-of-tax rate on income of about .70 after 10 years. This elasticity can be broken down into an (extensive) elasticity of migration of about .26 and an (intensive) elasticity of per capita income of about .44. The intensive margin elasticity appears to be driven in part by reporting and avoidance responses, but also by significant capitalization of property taxes in local real estate prices.

• Tuesday 21 June 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.15 PSE

  LOBECK Max ( University of Konstanz) : Inequality Externality Beliefs and Redistributive Preferences

  Morten Stostad

  Abstract

  This paper explores beliefs about how economic inequality changes society and establishes a causal link between such inequality externality beliefs and redistributive preferences. Using a representative survey of 4,371 U.S. citizens, we show that essentially every individual believes that inequality affects society in one way or another. Large and consistent majorities believe inequality leads to more negative societal outcomes through channels such as increased crime or worsening economic factors. These beliefs are widespread across incomes and party lines, contrasting to more narrowly held fairness concerns. We establish a causal link to individuals' redistributive preferences by using exogenously provided video information treatments, and estimate the importance of externality beliefs for redistributive preferences to be roughly two-thirds that of fairness views. Externality-based arguments induce less anger and are more broadly convincing across the income distribution than fairness-based arguments, indicating that focusing on inequality's societal effects is less polarizing than classic fairness discussions.

• Tuesday 14 June 2022 12:30-13:30

  R2.01 PSE

  BERMAN Yonatan (King's College London) : The Electoral Response to Inequality-Increasing Policy: Evidence from Israel, 2003-2006

  Abstract

  We exploit panel microdata on voting in Israel to test the causal effect of inequality-increasing welfare and tax reforms on elections. Following a severe recession, the 2003 elected government cut welfare benefits and decreased tax progressivity. Low-income voters and parents to several children were negatively treated. High-income voters were positively treated. Using individual-level data for the 2003 and 2006 elections, we find that the reforms had no significant effect on voting behavior. Surprisingly, we document evidence for an increase in relative support for the incumbent government among negatively-treated groups. We explain our results by the salience of social identity, in contrast to standard models of voting behavior. The results provide a uniquely well-identified support to the literature on redistributive preferences.

• Tuesday 7 June 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01 PSE

  LEITE NEVES David (PSE) : Do Managers Shift Personal Expenditures to Firm Expenses? Evidence from Electronic Invoicing Data

  Abstract

  This paper studies tax evasion due to shifting of managers’ personal expenditures to firm accounts using (i) administrative monthly micro-data of personal expenditures from an electronic invoice program in Portugal (e-Fatura); (ii) social security registers; (iii) personal income tax returns. Drawing on this unique combination of data, I demonstrate empirically that managers shift by about 1/3 of their personal expenditures to firms and by about 1/4 of their household expenditures. The shift is driven by expenditures in sectors that lie on the border between business and personal consumption, specifically hotels and restaurants, retail trade and consultancy services. The strategy of consuming through the firm is spread all over the income distribution, but it is particularly concentrated between the 5th-8th deciles. At the top income decile, expenditure shifting amounts to 1/5 of household consumption. Back of the envelope computations suggest that the scale of personal income tax losses due to expenditure shifting amount to 1.68% of the GDP

• Tuesday 31 May 2022 12:30-13:30

  R2.01 (PSE)

  FRÉMEAUX Nicolas (LEMMA, Université Paris Panthéon-Assas) : A justice rendered by women for women? What judicial intervention does to gender wealth gap

  Sibylle Gollac

  Abstract

  In order to understand the role of law and justice in the gender wealth gap in contemporary France, we study the influence of the judges' gender on decisions related to marital separations. We use a unique dataset of 3,000 judicial cases with detailed information about both the judges and the cases. We do not find any systematic effect of the judges' gender. The latter does not affect the decisions related to child physical custody and child support. However, female judges tend to grant a lower share of spousal compensatory benefits but when a benefit is granted, its value is larger than those granted by male judges. Moreover, we do not detect that decisions rendered by male or female judges are systematically closer to one of the litigants' claim. The limited effect of judicial intervention on gender inequality between separated men and women is not due to the discretion of judges but rather due to the litigants' claims and the importance that female as male judges give to these claims in their decision-making process. Information used and organizational constraints faced by judges as well as peer effects can explain these results, which question the hypothesis of a feminist justice or a justice “rendered by women for women”.

• Tuesday 24 May 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01 PSE

  PAUL-VENTURINE Julia : Can central governments promote density ? Evidence from the removal of floor area ratio in France

  Abstract

  In this paper, we study the impact of a national-level reform that abolished locally set floor area ratios (FAR) in France. FAR is a piece of regulation that local policy makers use to prevent urban densification. The goal of the reform was to foster the supply of housing projects in cities while reducing the consumption of agricultural land by densifying urban places. To identify its impact on the Paris metropolitan area, we use a difference-in-difference (DID) framework comparing housing blocks where a maximum FAR existed before the reform with the closest blocks where no FAR existed. We find that treated areas, in which FAR were removed, didn't experiment any change in their density and no particular dynamic in their price. This suggests that the suppression of FAR imposed by the central government didn't have any positive impact on the housing supply. Preliminary results on observed heights of new buildings suggest that local authorities might have compensated the disappearance of FAR using alternate tools that still were available as maximum heights.

• Tuesday 17 May 2022 12:30-13:30

  R2.01 PSE

  BENVENISTE Stéphane (INED-AMSE) : Like Father, Like Child: Social Reproduction in the French Grandes Ecoles throughout the 20th Century

  Abstract

  Educational systems expanded over the 20th century in developed countries, and while most scholars found that it promoted social mobility, some argue that the top of the social hierarchy remains shielded over generations. In France, the most prestigious Grandes Ecoles are elite institutions for higher education. They constitute the main pathway to top positions in the public and private sectors. The present work provides the first results on intergenerational social reproduction in these schools over more than a century. We construct an exhaustive nominative dataset of 224,264 graduate students from ten of the leading Grandes Ecoles, spanning over five cohorts born between 1866 and 1995. We develop a new methodology within the literature using surnames to track lineages and find that families from ancient aristocratic lineage, Parisians, as well as descendants of graduates are highly over-represented in the top Grandes Ecoles, throughout the 20th century. Across cohorts, children of Grandes Ecoles’ graduates are 72 to 154 times more likely to be admitted, and up to 450 times to the exact same school than their father. This advantage appears remarkably stable for all cohorts born since 1916 and persists across multiple generations, emphasizing the existence of a “glass floor” for the French elites.

• Tuesday 10 May 2022 12:30-13:30

  R2.01 PSE

  CHAROUSSET Pauline (PSE) : How Do Elite Post-Secondary Programs Select their Students?

  Gabrielle Fack, Julien Grenet and Yinghua He

  Abstract

  This paper uses data from the centralized system of college admissions in France to estimate selective programs' preferences over applicants. To assess how selective programs weigh each applicant's characteristic when making admissions decisions, we assume that they rank applicants based on a score value that depends linearly on their grades and demographic characteristics, among which gender, social background and geographical origin. Using a program-specific logistic lasso estimation, we find that selective programs give preferential treatment to geographically-close applicants. Applicants to selective programs located in their own high school or district are given an advantage that is equivalent to a 0.3 standard deviation increase in each of the applicant's grades, for the programs with the highest preference for geographically-close applicants. To assess how programs' preferences for applicants' demographic characteristics affect the diversity of their student body, we simulate the impact of a policy ban on demographic characteristics, and find that the ban only moderately affects the average composition of admitted students to selective programs, but can have substantial effects on the geographical composition of the student body for some types of programs.

• Tuesday 3 May 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01 PSE

  KERSTING Felix (Humboldt University Berlin) : Welfare Reform and Repression in an Autocracy: Bismarck and the Socialists

  Abstract

  This paper studies the effect of a welfare reform, a repressive law and its interaction on the vote share for the opposition in an autocratic country in times of social unrest. I examine Bismarck’s policies of introducing social insurance and the anti-socialist law in late 19th century Germany. The socialist party, I find, increases its vote share in constituencies more affected by Bismarck’s policies. For identification, I exploit local and industry-specific variation in treatment intensity due to ex-ante existing local healthcare and detailed lists on forbidden socialist organizations. This variation allows me to use a dynamic difference-in-differences as well as a shift-share approach. As mechanisms, I highlight that the socialist party evaded the repression and dominated the narrative about the social reform. My results suggest that dominating the narrative is a crucial complementarity for the political success of social reforms.

• Tuesday 26 April 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01 PSE

  BOMARE Jeanne : Will we ever be able to track offshore wealth? Evidence from the offshore real estate market in the UK

  Abstract

  This paper provides evidence of the importance of real estate assets in offshore portfolios by studying the implementation of the first multilateral automatic exchange of information norm, the Common Reporting Standard (CRS). Exploiting administrative data on property purchases made by foreign companies in the UK, we show that the implementation of the CRS led to a significant increase of real estate investments from the tax havens that were the most exposed to the policy. We confirm that this increase comes from residents of countries committing to the new standard by comparing the list of purchasing companies to the Panama Papers and other leaked datasets. As real estate assets are excluded from the scope of the CRS, this indicates that tax evaders purchased properties to avoid the new reporting requirements. We estimate that between £16 and £20 billion were invested in the UK real estate market between 2013 and 2017 in reaction to the CRS, suggesting that at the global scale at least 9% of the money that fled tax havens following this policy were ultimately invested in properties.

• Tuesday 19 April 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09 PSE

  AHMED Resuf : Does Political Quota Lead to Development? Evidence from India

  Abstract

  This paper studies the impact of political quotas on development. I exploit an exogenous variation provided by the redistricting of the electoral constituencies in 2008: almost 20% of all Indian villages changed their quota status. I employ novel village-level data on nightlights, electrification, road (re)construction, and school enrollment. The findings are threefold: (i) redistricting leads to more development in villages directly affected, (ii) villages that get the quotas for the first time experience a higher development as opposed to villages that loses the political quotas, (iii) share of the (SCs) minority in the village in addition to political quotas plays an instrumental role for the development. Furthermore, losing political quotas does not result in a lower level of development implying that there is a persistence of quota mandate.

• Tuesday 12 April 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09 PSE

  RASTER Tom : When Labor Scarcity Raises Coercion: Evidence from the Great Northern War Plague

  Abstract

  Labor scarcity is hypothesized as one of the main drivers of coercion. However, its effects on coercion are ambiguous and depend on two competing channels. Scarce labor demands a higher wage, which incentivizes employers to coerce laborers instead of matching their wage demands. Yet, labor may also be scarce in other sectors, presenting laborers with an outside option, which limits employers' ability to coerce them. This paper provides the first estimate of the causal effect of labor scarcity on coercion intensity. Compiling detailed data on Estonian serfs, I show that the Great Northern War plague (1710-12) created variation in labor scarcity that is locally quasi-exogenous, as it cannot be predicted by a host of pre-plague characteristics. I find that localities that saw more plague deaths experienced higher levels of coercion in subsequent years, suggesting that outside options in other sectors were limited. As a final step, I instrument labor coercion with plague deaths in order to obtain causal estimates of the effects of coercion on outcomes before and after the abolition of serfdom in 1816-19. My results show that coercion leads to lower education and trust.

• Tuesday 5 April 2022 12:30-13:30

  R.1.09 Jourdan

  CASTILLO GARCÍA César (The New School for Social Research & PSE) : Factor income shares and capital accumulation in Peru: 1940-2019

  Abstract

  A common problem with Latin American economies is the lack of long-run official statistical data for factor income shares. Nevertheless, several proposals have intended to proxy the macroeconomic income distribution in the region. This study focuses on the functional income distribution of the Peruvian economy. It aims to show time series for the wage, profits, and mixed-income shares for the period 1942-2019. The evolution of the wage and profits shares relates to the structural transformations of the Peruvian economy and the impact of economic policy in the distributive cycles. This reconstructed data allows (i) to decompose the wage share to obtain the average wage, the average productivity of workers, and the salaried employment ratio, and (ii) to estimate a general gross rate of profit for the Peruvian economy.

• Tuesday 29 March 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09 PSE

  NEEF Theresa (Halle Institute for Economic Research & World Inequality Lab) : When capitalism takes over socialism: (missing) capital and East-West-German income inequality

  Stefan Bach (DIW Berlin), Charlotte Bartels (DIW Berlin)

  Abstract

  Thirty years after the German reunification, differences in income, wealth and living standards between East and West German households persist. Economic convergence is slowing down, while resentment and extreme voting behaviour are on the rise. In recent years, a critical debate about the adequacy of policies accompanying the German reunification has rekindled. This paper explores the reasons behind the persisting income differences by constructing Distributional National Accounts (DINA) for East and West Germany. We use the universe of individual income taxpayers, complement it with information on non-filers recorded in SOEP survey data and align incomes with National Accounts aggregates. This allows us to study the distribution of pre-tax income since 1990. We find that East German residents are still underrepresented at the top of the national income distribution and relate this finding to a lack of capital ownership among East Germans. At the macro level, this phenomenon is mirrored by capital income generated in East Germany flowing to West German capital owners.

• Tuesday 22 March 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09 PSE

  ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE) : Independent Media, Propaganda, and Religiosity

  Irena Grosfeld, Seyhun Orcan Sakalli, and Etienne Madinier

  Abstract

  Can media affect religious behavior? We study the effect of a drastic change in the media landscape on religious participation in Poland, a country, where the vast majority of the population considers itself Catholics. Before 2015, news on mainstream public and private media outlets had a similar moderately-liberal slant. In 2015, a right-wing populist party Law and Justice (PiS) came to power and took control of the editorial policy of public media, introducing a substantial conservative pro-government and pro-Church bias in public-media broadcast. A private TV network, TVN, remained the main source of freely available independent-from-the-government news on Polish television. In a difference-in-differences setting, we exploit spatial variation in TVN signal, sufficiently good for reception in about two-thirds of the country, and the overtime change in the content of the major state-owned TV network, which has good reception almost everywhere. We document that, after PiS came to power, religious participation fell more in municipalities with access to TVN compared to municipalities receiving only state TV signal. Using a large-scale online randomization experiment, we examine the effects of exposure to different types of content available only via independent media. We show that exposing both the pedophilia within the Church and the mutual financial and political support between the Church and the ruling PiS party decreases trust in religious institutions, but the effect of exposing pedophilia scandals is stronger. The experiment's results persist for at least three weeks.

• Tuesday 15 March 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  BARRERA Oscar (Paris School of Economics) : Information and Normative Economics on Attitudes Towards the Top one Percent

  Emmanuel Chavez

  Abstract

  We study the effects of providing quantitative information and normative economics about top earners on people's attitudes towards the richest 1 percent. We conduct an online experiment with 2000 French participants assigned randomly to either only quantitative information on top earners' income levels and their respective sources of income (capital vs. labor), or to quantitative information plus normative egalitarian interpretations. We find that: (i) respondents overestimate the income of the richest 1 percent and want them to pay a higher income tax rate than the current one. (ii) Quantitative information shifts attitudes about top earners towards the unfavorable spectrum. This effect comes mainly from information on the sources of income. (iii) Quantitative information by itself does not affect preferences towards the top income tax rate. In contrast, (iv) quantitative and normative egalitarian interpretations lead respondents to choose a higher income tax rate for the richest 1 percent.

• Tuesday 8 March 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09 PSE

  SOUIDI Youssef (PSE) : Is the redrawing of catchment areas an effective tool for fighting against school segregation? Evidence from France

  Abstract

  Default school assignment is often set through catchment areas. Usually drawn around schools, they are likely to reflect residential sorting. This paper focuses on the French context, where one third of students bypass the default assignment by resorting to opt-out options. Using novel geographic information data, I first show that neighboring schools sometimes dramatically differ in the social composition of their catchment area. It suggests that, despite residential sorting and current school siting, there is room for reducing segregation across schools' recruitment pools. In the second part of the paper, I evaluate the causal impact of a change in catchment areas’ boundaries on families’ short-term behavioral reactions using a difference-in-differences strategy. Preliminary results show that changing such boundaries does not necessarily translate into more socially diverse schools. I find that, when assigned a lower performing school, both high-SES and low-SES families react by using opt-out options, but behavioral reactions are much stronger for high-SES families.

• Tuesday 22 February 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01 PSE

  BOZIO Antoine (PSE/EHESS) : Do Billionnaires pay taxes?

  Laurent Bach, Arthur Guillouzouic and Clément Malgouyres

  Abstract

  Using French tax data linking personal and corporate returns, we measure the effective tax rates of households at the top of the comprehensive income distribution and particularly billionaires, i.e. those at the top 0.0001%. Personal tax rates fall with income within the top 1%, down to almost 0% among billionaires. The wealth tax is barely less regressive than the income tax because business assets are exempted from it and because it is capped in proportion to personal, not comprehensive, income. The corporate tax appears to nearly offset the regressivity of personal taxes, making it effectively the only tax on billionaires.

• Tuesday 15 February 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09 PSE

  SCHAFF Felix (LSE) : The Unequal Spirit of the Protestant Reformation: Particularism and Wealth Distribution in Early Modern Germany

  Abstract

  This paper studies the impact of the Protestant Reformation on wealth distribution and inequality in confessionally divided Germany, between 1400 and 1800. The Reformation expanded social welfare, but provided it in a particularistic way to insiders only. This gave Protestantism an ambiguous character in terms of redistribution and its impact on inequality. I model that trade-off theoretically and test its implications empirically, using a Difference-in-Differences and an Instrumental Variable strategy. In line with the theoretical framework, I document that the Reformation exacerbated inequality overall, by making marginal poor people relatively poorer. The result is driven by the introduction of particularistic poor relief institutions in Protestant communities. These brought about a new low-redistribution equilibrium. The inegalitarian character of Protestantism, typically found in contemporary societies, can be traced back to the beginning of the Reformation in the sixteenth century.

• Tuesday 8 February 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09 PSE

  CHAVEZ Emmanuel (PSE) : Who Pays for a VAT Hike at an International Border? Evidence from Mexico

  Cristobal Domínguez

  Abstract

  This research studies the effects of a value added tax (VAT) reform at Mexico's international frontiers. The reform raised the VAT rate from 11 to 16 percent at localities close to the international borders. We use the traditional static difference-in-differences methodology as well as dynamic difference-in-differences. The treatment group is composed of municipalities in the area where the VAT increased, and the control group is composed of municipalities close to the treatment group. We find that the VAT hike had a positive effect on prices of around half the size of the full pass-through conterfactual. In addition, the reform had a negative effect on workers' wages and no effect on employment. The negative effect on workers' real incomes is not smoothed out with credits. We find evidence of a negative effect on consumption at Mexico's northern border due to the reform. However, we find no evidence of an increase in shopping at the United States side of the border.

• Tuesday 1 February 2022 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09 PSE

  GIGNOUX Jérémie (PSE) : Learning About Opportunity: Spillovers of Elite School Admissions in Peru

  Ricardo Estrada, Agustina Hatrick

  Abstract

  This paper studies how the admission of a student to an elite school changes the schooling outcomes of younger cohorts in the student’s origin school in Peru. Using a sharp regression discontinuity design, the analysis finds that the admission of an older schoolmate increases the probability that students in origin schools will apply and gain admission to the same elite school system. The effect is concentrated among students whose parents have low education levels, which indicates a process of information diffusion. Furthermore, there is a slightly positive effect on the learning achievement of potential applicants and no negative effect on the learning of students who are ineligible to apply. Overall, the findings show that selective schools can have effects that go beyond their own students and indicate that role models can be an effective mechanism for increasing the demand from high-achieving, low-income students for high-quality education.

• Tuesday 25 January 2022 12:30-13:30

  R1.09 Jourdan

  ZABROCKI Leo (PSE) : Unbiased but Inflated Causal Effects

  Vincent Bagilet (Columbia University)

  Abstract

  In this paper, we bridge two existing ideas. On the one hand, to avoid confounders, most identification strategies throw out variation and can inherently lead to a reduction in statistical power. On the other hand, when power is low, published estimates may overestimate true effects sizes. Using fake data simulations, we show that in a wide range of situations, neat causal identification strategies may produce inflated effects. As a consequence, there could be a trade off between avoiding confounders and overestimating true effect sizes due to low power issues. We discuss potential avenues to address this underrated issue.

• Tuesday 18 January 2022 12:30-13:30

  Jourdan R1.09

  EYQUEM Aurélien (Université Lumière Lyon 2) : Explaining Income and Wealth Inequality over the Long Run: The Case of France

  Stéphane Auray, Bertrand Garbinti, Jonathan Goupille

  Abstract

  We incorporate microeconomic evidence for France using distributional accounts into a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous workers, endogenous labor supply, entrepreneurs, three assets (deposits, housing and capital), heterogeneous discount factors and wealth in the utility. Calibrated using 1984 data, the initial stationary distribution matches the observed levels of income and wealth inequalities up to the top 1\%, as well as the aggregate wealth-income ratio. It also fits the observed composition of wealth along the distribution, which makes returns on wealth increase with wealth levels, as in the data. From 1985 to 2018, we feed the model with exogenous changes in taxes and transfers, firms' markups, aggregate productivity, capital depreciation and equity and housing capital gains. The model replicates the observed dynamics of income and wealth inequalities as well as the dynamics of most macroeconomic aggregates. Counterfactual experiments suggest that markups and the tax system are the main interacting drivers of rising income and wealth inequalities over the last 40 years in France.

• Tuesday 11 January 2022 12:30-13:30

  R2.01 Jourdan

  FISHER-POST Matthew (PSE) : Globalization and Factor Income Taxation

  Pierre Bachas (World Bank), Anders Jensen (HKS), Gabriel Zucman (UC Berkeley)

  Abstract

  How has globalization affected the relative taxation of labor and capital? We address this question by constructing and analyzing a database of effective macroeconomic tax rates covering 150 countries since 1965, obtained by combining national accounts data with government revenue statistics. We obtain 5 main findings. 1) The average effective labor and capital tax rates have converged globally, due to a 10 points increase in labor taxation and 5 points decline in capital taxation since the 1960s. 2) The decline in capital taxation is concentrated in high-income countries and driven by the collapse of corporate profits taxation. 3) By contrast, capital taxation has increased in developing countries since the 1990s, especially in large economies. 4) Using a variety of research designs, we find that the rise in effective capital tax rates in developing countries follows the rise of trade openness, while trade has a negative effect on capital taxation in developed countries. In both groups of countries, trade leads to an increase in effective labor taxation. 5) Countries with higher trade have a larger share of output produced in the corporate sector (where income is easier to observe and therefore to tax) and less self-employment. Globalization thus appears to have had asymmetric effects on tax structures, contributing to the decline in tax progressivity in rich countries but also to the growth of tax capacity in developing countries.

• Tuesday 4 January 2022 12:30-13:30

  R2.01 Jourdan

  MADINIER Etienne (PSE) : Explaining the heterogenous effect of Internet on elections: evidence from France

  Abstract

  The paper estimates the effect of Internet availability at the municipality level on the electoral performance of the candidates to the French presidential elections. I separate the effect of mobile and stationary internet (respectively through 3G and ADSL). Applying the generalized random forest (Athey et al. 2019) algorithm to estimate the treatment effect allows to describe the effect both as a function of the candidates political platforms and the municipality's characteristics.

• Tuesday 14 December 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan

  VAN DER WEELE Joël (University of Amsterdam) : Fair Shares and Selective Attention

  Dianna Amasino, Davide D. Pace

  Abstract

  Fairness views often serve to justify economic privilege. To understand the formationof such views, we experimentally investigate how subjects allocate their visual atten-tion to the contributions of merit and luck in the generation of a surplus, and how theydecide on its division. We find that subjects who randomly obtained an advantagedposition pay less attention to information about true merit and retain more of thesurplus. Both the attentional and behavioral patterns persist when dictators subse-quently divide money between pairs of advantaged and disadvantaged subjects in therole of a benevolent judge. Moreover, attention has a substantial causal effect: forcingsubjects to look for one second more at merit information relative to overall outcomesreduces the effect of having an advantaged position on allocations by about 25%. Thesefindings suggest that attention-based policy interventions may be effective in reducingpolarized views on inequality.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 7 December 2021 12:30-13:30

  R1.09 Jourdan

  JOHANNESEN Niels (University of Copenhagen, EU Tax Observatory) : Bailing out the Kids: New Evidence on Informal Insurance from one Billion Bank Transfers

  Asger Lau Andersen, Adam Sheridan

  Abstract

  We combine transaction-level data from the largest retail bank in Denmark and individuallevel data from government registers to study informal insurance within social networks. Accounting for transfers in cash (money transfers) and in kind (cohabitation), we estimate that family and friends jointly replace around 7 cents of the marginal dollar lost within the bottom income decile, but much less at higher income levels. We document that informal insurance covers other adverse events than income losses: expenditure shocks, family ruptures and financial distress. Parents appear to be the key providers of informal insurance with a small amount of insurance coming from siblings and virtually none from grandparents and friends. Replacement rates vary monotonically with parent economic resources.

• Tuesday 30 November 2021 12:30-13:30

  R1.09 Jourdan

  AVVISATI Francesco (J-PAL) : The learning gain over one school year among 15-year-olds: An international comparison based on PISA

  Pauline Givord (INSEE-CREST-LIEPP)

  Abstract

  We compare the learning gain over one year of schooling among 15-year-old students in Austria, Brazil, Malaysia, Scotland (United Kingdom) and Singapore. Common metrics for reading, mathematics and science learning, as established by the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), are used. In order to overcome the limitations of a cross-sectional, single-cohort design, we combine multiple vintages of PISA data and exploit the fact that the testing period in these countries varied over the years. The results show that students’ yearly learning progress around the age of 15 varies from about one-tenth of a standard deviation in students’ test scores in Malaysia to about one-fourth of a standard deviation or more in Austria and Scotland.

• Tuesday 23 November 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  COLY Caroline (PSE) : It's a man's world: culture of abuse, #MeToo and worker flows

  Cyprien Batut, Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski

  Abstract

  Sexual harassment and sexists behaviors are pervasive issues in the workplace. Around 12% of women in France have been subjected to toxic behaviors at work in the last year, including sexist comments, moral, sexual or physical harassment, or violence. Such toxic behaviors can not only deter women from entering the labor market, but can also lead them to leave toxic workplaces at their own expense. This article is one of the first to examine the relationship between toxic behaviors and worker flows. We use the #MeToo movement as an exogenous shock to France's workplace norms regarding toxic behaviors. We combine survey data on reported toxic behaviors in firms with exhaustive administrative data to create a measure of toxic behaviors risk for all French establishments. We use a triple-difference strategy comparing female and male worker flows in high-risk versus low-risk firms before and after \#MeToo. We find that #MeToo increased women's relative quit rates in higher-risk workplaces, while men's job flows remained unaffected. This demonstrates the existence of a double penalty for women working in high-risk environments, as they are not only more frequently the victims of toxic behaviors, but are also forced to quit their jobs in order to avoid them.

• Tuesday 16 November 2021 12:30-13:30

  R1.09 Jourdan

  ZABROCKI Leo (PSE) : Why Acute Health Effects of Air Pollution Could Be Inflated

  Vincent Bagilet (Columbia University)

  Abstract

  Accurate and precise measurements of the short-term effects of air pollution on health play a key role in setting air quality standards. Yet, statistical power calculations are rarely—if ever—carried out. We first collect estimates and standard errors of all available articles found in the standard epidemiology and causal inference literatures. We find that nearly half of them may suffer from a low statistical power and could thereby produce statistically significant estimates that are actually inflated. We then run simulations based on real data to identify which parameters of research designs affect statistical power. Despite their large sample sizes, we show that studies exploiting rare exogenous shocks such as transport strikes or thermal inversions could have a very low statistical power, even for plausibly large effect sizes. Our simulation results indicate that the observed discrepancy in the literature between instrumental variable estimates and non-causal ones could be partly explained by the inherent imprecision of the two-stage least-squares estimator. We also provide evidence that subgroup analysis on the elderly or children should be implemented with caution since the average number of events for an health outcome is a major driver of power. Based on these findings, we build a series of recommendations for researchers to evaluate the design of their study with respect to statistical power issues

• Tuesday 9 November 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  CHAMPALAUNE Pascale (PSE) : Inequality in Exposure to Air Pollution in France: Evidence from a City-Level Public Policy

  Abstract

  I combine measures of neighbourhood characteristics with high-resolution remote-sensing data to provide the first national-scale study of cross-sectional and longitudinal inequality in exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in France. First, descriptive evidence reveals a U-shaped relationship between income and PM2.5 exposure at the national level. However, within urban areas, poorer neighbourhoods are overexposed - a finding confirmed by fixed-effect models In addition, longitudinal inequality measures suggest that, in relative terms, recent air quality improvements accrued predominantly to areas that had a lower initial exposure, and intermediate income. In a second step, I exploit a change in air quality schemes at the level of urban areas in an event-study framework, so as to shed light on potentially unequal benefits from the induced reduction in exposure. I argue that paying specific attention to the issue of spatial autocorrelation is particularly important in a setting where the dependent variable is spatially continuous, and thus control for a spline of census-block geographic coordinates in preferred specifications. Results suggest that the adoption of new air quality schemes accounted for about a third of the drop in exposure over the period. I find that initially higher-income areas experienced larger improvements than lower-income ones, and that suburbs received larger improvements than city centres. This last finding hints at differences in the relative effectiveness of the measures taken to improve air quality.

• Tuesday 2 November 2021 12:30-13:30

  R1.09 Jourdan

  NICOLAIDES Panayiotis (EU Tax Observatory, Hertie School Berlin) : Income Tax Incentives for Electronic Payments: Evidence from Greece’s Electronic Consumption Tax Discount

  Abstract

  How effective are features of the income tax in incentivising a change in behaviour? I study how Greek taxpayers respond to a novel third-party reporting policy, which conditions their personal tax allowance on electronic consumption, requiring specific amounts to be reached during the financial year. Aimed at incentivising a change from cash to electronic payments, the policy includes almost all taxpayers by default, generates monthly electronic spending information and pre-fills the annual amounts spent in tax returns. Using a unique administrative dataset of 50,000 randomly-drawn taxpayers, I document (a) strong responses to the policy during tax filing, with 92% reporting the required amounts to gain the full tax discount, (b) evidence of increased reported amounts if consumption is lower than required, (c) economically and statistically significant electronic consumption responses in some taxpayers as the end-of-year deadline approaches. Adjustment costs in the form of policy inattention, liquidity constraints and low perceived costs of audit can explain the mixed policy outcome. The results suggest that linking incentives to existing features of the income tax system can trigger large responses, but the overall effect depends on adjustment costs in the taxpayer population.

• Tuesday 26 October 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan

  CLARKE Philip (University of Oxford) : The comparative mortality of an elite group in the long run of history: an observational analysis of politicians from 11 countries

  An Tran-Duy, Laurence S J Roope, Jay A Stiles, Adrian Barnett

  Abstract

  Substantial evidence has emerged regarding growing long-run trends in inequalities in income and wealth in recent years, but much less is known about comparable tends in disparities in health including life expectancy. This study aimed to compare the mortality rate and life expectancy of politicians with that of the age and gender-matched general populations for 11 developed countries (Australia, Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Politicians were members of national parliaments in countries with available data on dates of birth, death and election, gender, and life tables. Our sample included 2.6 million years of follow-up on 57,561 politicians (with follow-up period ranging from 1816–2016 for France to 1949–2017 for Germany). Relative mortality differences as Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) and absolute differences as gaps in life expectancy between politicians and the general populations over time were used to capture trends inequalities over time. At the turn of the 20th Century politicians had a survival advantage over the general population in only one country (United Kingdom), but inequalities widened considerably over the second half of the 20th century. Peak life expectancy gaps ranged from politicians living on average 4.4 (95% CI, 3.5–5.4) years longer in the Netherlands to 7.8 (95% CI, 7.2–8.4) years in the US. In the United States the survival advantage for politicians is greatest it has been in more 150 years. Finding effective ways to reduce these gaps should be a priority.

• Tuesday 19 October 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan

  MO Zhexun : Determinants of Redistributive Preferences in Contemporary China: Evidence from an Online Experiment

  Yuchen Huang (PSE), Yuqian Chen (Harvard University)

  Abstract

  Previous research suggests that Chinese citizens hold a set of seemingly contradictory beliefs: they are tolerant of large income inequalities and regard the rich to be deserving, but also demand strong government intervention to reduce the income gap. We conducted a pilot online experiment, with a representative sample of 2,500 adult individuals in mainland China in September 2021, in order to better understand the sources of such preference combinations. Preliminary results suggest that on the whole, Chinese citizens exhibit rather strong support for real-stake inequality-reducing policies, as well as the government's duty to regulate income distribution. However, surprisingly, priming the “luck component” of the income generating process in either becoming rich or staying poor makes them significantly less supportive of redistributive policies specifically targeted at taxing the rich, and also less supportive of government duties in regulating the income gap. This effect is mainly driven by a part of the population who self-reported to have relatively low economic pressure. We conjecture that such “libertarian” fairness views, as well as the strong demand for government intervention to “redistribute”, could both originate from extreme poverty aversion / wealth aspiration. On the one hand, poverty aversion drives a desire for property ownership, thus making it more likely to justify any means in acquiring property; on the other hand, poverty aversion also calls for strong government intervention in lifting the poor up. We argue that such a mechanism could be most saliently exemplified in the Chinese economic regime with highly sustained growth rates as well as high social mobility over the past four decades.

• Tuesday 12 October 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan

  ANDREESCU Marie (PSE) : The economic cost of size-dependent firm regulations in France: a reassessment

  Philippe Askenazy, Vladimir Pecheu

  Abstract

  Several additional regulations apply to French firms when they reach the size threshold of 50 employees. We show that several firms having slightly more than 50 employees under-declare their true number of workers and by doing so, they can avoid (some of) the regulations. This implies that the very high economic costs of the regulations estimated in former papers should be considered with caution.

• Tuesday 5 October 2021 12:30-13:30

  R1.09

  WIDMER Philine (PSE) : Text Semantics Capture Political and Economic Narratives

  Elliott Ash, Germain Gauthier

  Abstract

  Social scientists have become increasingly interested in how narratives -- the stories in fiction, politics, and life -- shape beliefs, behavior, and government policies. This paper provides a novel, unsupervised method to quantify latent narrative structures in text, drawing on computational linguistics tools for clustering coherent entity groups and capturing relations between them. After validating the method, we provide an application to the U.S. Congressional Record to analyze political and economic narratives in recent decades. Our analysis highlights the dynamics, sentiment, polarization, and interconnectedness of narratives in political discourse.

• Tuesday 28 September 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  SOUIDI Youssef (PSE) : Optional course enrollment as a mechanism for within-school segregation : Evidence from a French reform

  Abstract

  In this paper, I study how optional course taking shapes within-school segregation in French middle-schools, an education system with no tracking policy. Enrollment in these courses is correlated with students’ social background : using this information in the class assignment process is therefore a likely driver of imbalances in the social composition of classes. I estimate the impact of a 2016 reform affecting the supply of some of these courses in Grades 6 and 8 on within-school segregation. I apply a difference-in-differences strategy to administrative data covering the universe of students enrolled in French middle-schools, exploiting the fact that only part of the middle-schools provided these optional courses before their removal. I find that the reform significantly decreased within-school social segregation among treated middle schools - those which used to offer optional courses. While they had a higher segregation level than non-treated schools before the reform, the gap is completely closed in Grade 6 the year of the reform. In Grade 8, the gap narrows down but does not close, indicating that the optional courses under study explain only part of the excess level of within-school social segregation for that grade. Importantly, the reform was particularly effective at reducing the level of segregation in the most segregated middle-schools.

• Tuesday 21 September 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  GUILLOT Malka : Is Charitable Giving Political? New Evidence from Wealth and Income Tax Returns

  Julia Cagé

  Abstract

  What are the determinants of philanthropic and political giving? Are donations to charities and parties driven by the same incentives? In this article, we use new administrative household panel data to quantify empirically the motivations for giving, depending on donors’ characteristics and tax incentives. Our dataset includes all the households filling their income tax and/or their wealth tax returns in France between 2006 and 2019. In France, both charitable and political donations benefit from income tax deductions, but only the charitable ones are eligible to the wealth tax credit. We exploit the 2018 wealth tax reform – a change in the taxable base that led to a drop by two thirds in the number of liable households – to estimate the cross-price elasticity of charitable and political giving at different levels of the income and wealth distributions. We provide new evidence of substituability between charitable and political donations: according to our estimates, a one-percent increase in the price of charitable giving leads to a 19 to 25% increase in political donations. The magnitude of this effect is particularly strong among the top 20% of the wealth taxpayers.

• Tuesday 14 September 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan

  SIRUGUE Louis (PSE) : The Anatomy of Intergenerational Income Mobility in France and its Spatial Variations

  Gustave Kenedi

  Abstract

  We provide new estimates of intergenerational income mobility in France for children born in the 1970s using rich administrative data. Since parents' incomes are not observed, we employ a two-sample two-stage least squares estimation procedure. At the national level, every measure of intergenerational income persistence (intergenerational elasticities, rank-rank correlations, and transition matrices) suggests that France is characterized by a particularly strong persistence relative to other developed countries. Children born to parents in the bottom 20% of their income distribution have a 10.1% probability of reaching the top 20% as adults. This probability is of 39.1% for children born to parents in the top 20%. At the local level, we find substantial spatial variations in intergenerational mobility. It is higher in the West of France and particularly low in the North and in the South. Within urban areas, intergenerational mobility decreases with distance to the urban center. We uncover significant relationships between intergenerational mobility and characteristics of the environment an individual grew up in, such as the unemployment rate, population density, and income inequality.

• Tuesday 7 September 2021 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan

  PASTORE Thomas : The Belle-Epoque of Portfolios?

  Abstract

  I reconstruct in this paper the historical performance of individual portfolios owned by Parisian investors in 1912, during the French Belle-Epoque, characterized by a massive concentration of wealth. Despite not bearing additional idiosyncratic risk and maintaining a low correlation with the market, the wealthier investors received higher risk-adjusted returns and captured a positive alpha. This relatively greater performance of large portfolios was achieved through the larger geographic and sectorial scope of their investments, higher returns on equity, corporate bonds and foreign assets, and a portfolio composition tilted toward expensive assets with positively skewed returns.

• Tuesday 29 June 2021 12:30-13:30

  LUKSIC Juan : Can immigration affect neighborhood effects? Accounting for the indirect effects of immigrants on native test scores

  Abstract

  Migratory waves can substantially transform neighborhoods. The arrival of immigrants to a neigh-borhood not only mechanically changes the characteristics of the local population but also can triggerrelocation responses from natives, further increasing the changes. Ignoring this indirect effect couldunderestimate the effect of immigrants on the natives who remain in the neighborhood. This paper usestwo different strategies to estimate the effect of immigrants on children’s test scores and shows that theresponses of natives are indeed important. I exploit rich administrative data from Chile and variation inthe neighborhood composition generated by a large increase in the number immigrants arriving to thecountry between 2013 and 2019. Using a shift-share instrument, I show that foreign students worsenneighborhood effects on test scores. An increase of 1 standard deviation in the share of immigrants ina municipality causes a 1.2 percentile decrease in student test scores per year spent. Then, I estimatethe immigrant peer effects and find a precise zero. These results indicate that indirect effects can berelevant. In fact, native flight and an increase in socioeconomic segregation across schools seem to beimportant drivers of my results.

• Tuesday 22 June 2021 12:30-13:30

  WRONSKI Marcin (SGH Warsaw School of Economics ) : The impact of social security wealth on the distribution of household wealth in the European Union. Evidence from the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey.

  Abstract

  Social security wealth has an important role in securing consumption in old-age. Therefore public pension entitlements are an important part of the household wealth portfolio. Existing literature studies find that social security wealth reduces wealth inequality. We use a novel data source – the Eurosystem Household and Finance Consumption Survey – to compare the impact of the public pension system on wealth inequality in 19 European countries. To assess the equalizing impact of the public pension system we apply inequality decomposition techniques. Although in all countries social security wealth reduces wealth inequality, the strength of the impact varies strongly across countries. The equalizing impact of social security wealth on augmented wealth inequality is strongest in Austria, Estonia, Germany, Netherlands, and Cyprus. In Slovenia, Greece, and Croatia the equalizing impact is rather weak. The evidence on the impact of social security wealth on cross-country differences in wealth is mixed. On the one hand, cross-country wealth gaps assessed at chosen percentiles of the augmented wealth distribution, are smaller than in the case of private wealth distribution. On the other hand, however, the decomposition shows that augmented wealth inequality is to a larger extent generated by between-country inequality than private wealth inequality.

• Tuesday 15 June 2021 12:30-13:30

  IRAIZOZ Ander : Saving for retirement through the public pension system: Evidence from the self-employed in Spain

  Abstract

  Using the fact that the Spanish self-employed voluntarily choose their contributions to Social Security, I study the effect of financial incentives on public pension savings for self-employed workers in Spain. For this, I implement a difference-in-differences approach exploiting the change in public pension saving incentives induced by the 1997 pension reform. I find that the Spanish self-employed significantly respond to the financial incentives for public pension savings. However, the estimated response could be considered modest relative to the magnitude of the return to contributions provided by pension formulas in Spain. I provide evidence suggesting that the lack of salience of the return to contributions could be one of the main drivers of such a modest response, highlighting the importance of information and salience on the responsiveness of self-employed workers to saving incentives.

• Tuesday 8 June 2021 12:30-13:30

  FILIPPUCCI Francesco : Who Profits from Training Subsidies? Evidence from a French Individual Learning Account

  Abstract

  Training subsidies, and particularly Individual Learning Accounts, are an increasingly popular tool to support lifelong investment in human capital. However, the incidence of subsidies crucially depends on the market reaction, hence on price and quantity reactions to them. We study the 2019 reform of the French Compte Personnel de Formation, which switched from a system in which each industry self-determined the value of the subsidy to a centralized uniform subsidy. We find that, on average, a 1% cut in the subsidy determines a 0.55% decrease in the per-hour price of training, while the effect on the hours amount and duration of training is insignificant. We also find that the cut in the subsidy generates a small but significant decrease in revenues and production costs on average. For training centers more heavily relying on CPF the effect on revenues is larger, while the effect on costs is smaller, so that we find a significant reduction in profits following the cut of CPF subsidies. This findings suggest that supply of training is relatively inelastic, so that the incidence of subsidies tends to fall on suppliers of training, especially marginal ones.

• Tuesday 1 June 2021 12:30-13:30

  ASSOUAD Lydia (PSE) : The long-run effect of nationalistic infrastructures: evidence from the 'People’s Houses' in Turkey

• Tuesday 25 May 2021 12:30-13:30

  HARPEDANNE Louis-Marie : Mediating Financial Intermediation

  Aymeric Bellon and Noemie Pinardon Touati

  Abstract

  This paper studies the resolution of disputes between firms and their lenders through external mediators, who suggest a non-legally binding solution to resolve a disagreement after commu- nicating with all parties. We exploit an administrative database on firms’ outcomes matched to the French credit registry and plausible exogenous variation in eligibility to public media- tors across counties for identification. Credit, employment and investment increase following the mediation, causing an overall reduction in firms’ liquidation of 34.6%. All the effects are driven by firms that borrow from more than one financial institution, supporting the view that mediators solve coordination problems between lenders.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 18 May 2021 12:30-13:30

  CAGE Julia (Sciences Po) : Hosting Media Bias. Evidence from the Universe of French Television and Radio Shows, 2002-2020

  Moritz Hengel (Sciences Po Paris), Nicolas Hervé (INA) et Camille Urvoy (Sciences Po Paris)

• Tuesday 11 May 2021 12:30-13:30

  SANTINI Paolo : Team up against inequality: the effect of peer salaries on academic collaborations

  *

  Abstract

  Pay transparency has emerged as an effective tool to reduce inequalities, but it might carry some unintended consequences. Using comprehensive data on the salary and the academic production of economic faculties in the US, I investigate the effect of pay transparency on the endogenous probability of collaborating. Exploiting exogenous shocks on the information of coworkers’ pay, I show that exposing pay differences does harm team formation, but only when the differences in remuneration are not justified by underlying productivity differences or when the unjustified gaps cannot be closed by a change in the compensation policy. The effect is sizeable: a 100K $ difference, which represents the inter-quantile difference in compensations, reduces the probability of two authors co-writing a paper by 18 %. These findings are consistent with the idea that relative income concerns have broad social and labor market implications, particularly on cohesion, and that hence exposing inequalities might come at a cost.

• Tuesday 4 May 2021 12:30-13:30

  GETHIN Amory (PSE) : Inequality, Redistribution, and Growth: Evidence from South Africa, 1993-2019

  Léo Czajka and Aroop Chatterjee

  Abstract

  Can government redistributive policies successfully curb rising inequality and promote inclusive growth in emerging economies? This paper sheds new light on this question by combining survey, tax, and historical administrative data to evaluate the impact of taxes and transfers on the distribution of growth in South Africa since the end of the apartheid regime. Our new database is fully consistent with macroeconomic totals reported in the national accounts and allocates the entirety of government revenue and expenditure to individuals, including indirect taxes and in-kind transfers, with unprecedented level of detail. We document a dramatic divergence in the growth of top and bottom income groups: between 1993 and 2019, the pretax income of the top 1% rose by 50%, while that of the poorest 50% fell by a third. However, the widening of pretax income gaps has been almost fully compensated by the growing size and progressivity of the tax-and-transfer system, effectively mirroring a “chase between rising inequality and enhanced redistribution”. The decline of racial inequalities since the end of apartheid has been entirely driven by the boom of top Black income groups and is only marginally reduced by taxes and transfers. Our results have important implications for fiscal policy, the measurement of poverty, and the analysis of the link between inequality and growth.

• Tuesday 27 April 2021 12:30-13:30

  MEHMOOD Sultan : Training Effective Altruism

  D. Chen

  Abstract

  Randomizing different schools of thought on cultivating prosociality among high-stakes decision makers in Pakistan suggests that training the utilitarian value of empathy elevates prosociality. One month after training, treated civil servants display 0.4-0.6 sigma greater altruism; two to four months after, orphanage visits and blood donations double. Field and lab results suggest improved theory of mind in strategic dilemmas: blood donations only increased when treated individuals were requested their exact blood type, and training improved cooperation, coordination, honesty and guessing the decisions of others (Nagel 1995). Treated individuals were more likely to choose a book on empathy in a book lottery, score higher on a soft-skills course, and increase language of social cohesion in social media. Training a school of thought on malleability of the self had no effects relative to the placebo, even in conjunction with the utilitarian value of empathy. We interpret these null effects through the lens of self-image models because malleability of identity breaks the link from actions to perceptions of prosociality.

• Tuesday 20 April 2021 12:30-13:30

  BLANC Guillaume (University of Manchester) : The Origins of Common Language in Nations: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in France

  Masahiro Kubo

  Abstract

  This paper studies the evolution of language in the process of nation-building. We identify the institutional origins and consequences of the advent of common language in the course of the emergence of nation-states in the nineteenth-century. In France, at the time of the French Revolution, less than fifteen percent of the population spoke standard French—a dialect of langue d’oil and only one of forty-six different languages spoken historically. Today, French is the only official language and a first language to most Frenchmen. In order to empirically study this for the first time, we digitize a novel, detailed town-level dataset on spoken languages in France in 1900. We explore the role of state-sponsored education in a regression discontinuity framework exploiting quasi-experimental variation in school building and show that schools played a substantial role in the widespread adoption of standard French language. We additionally find that elites and secular public education were important vectors of homogenization, while places with low returns to education were less likely to adopt standard language. Finally, we document an association of linguistic distance with trade and migration, and show that the nation-building policy influenced the salience of national identity in the twentieth century.?

• Tuesday 13 April 2021 12:30-13:30

  GAUTHIER Stephane (PSE) : Height Growth from Exhaustive Historical Panel Data

  Abstract

  This article shows that two widely used data sources from the French military administration pertain to two different enlistment stages and combines these sources to build a quasi-exhaustive panel of young men around their 20s. The panel is applied to measure height growth of men born at the end of the 19th century in an economically backward small rural area of France. The one-year growth is 0.39cm and only concerns the shortest men; the tallest men already reached adult maturity. Industrial pollution imposes a growth penalty that overcomes the enhancing impact of industrial development.

• Tuesday 6 April 2021 12:30-13:30

  COTTET Sophie (University of Stavanger, Norway) : Payroll Tax Reductions for Minimum Wage Workers: Relative Labor Cost or Cash Windfall Effects?

  Abstract

  This paper uses administrative employer-employee data to uncover the effects of a large payroll tax reduction for minimum-wage workers in France in the 1990s. Exploiting the change in labor costs both at the job level and at the firm level, I find that the number of minimum-wage jobs increases but that these additional jobs stem exclusively from firms which had previously very few, or none, minimum wage workers. On the contrary, firms which already employed workers at minimum-wage levels, and thus benefit ex ante from a cash windfall, increase employment irrespective of wage levels.

• Tuesday 30 March 2021 12:30-13:30

  DUFLO Esther (MIT) : Street mathematicians

• Tuesday 23 March 2021 12:30-13:30

  via zoom

  BANERJEE Abhijit (MIT) : Does Poverty Increase Labour Supply ? Evidence from Multiple Income Effects and 115,579 Bags

  Abstract

  *

• Tuesday 16 March 2021 12:30-13:30

  GETHIN Amory (PSE) : Political Cleavages in Western Democracies, 1948-2020

  Clara Martinez-Toledano, Thomas Piketty

  Abstract

  This paper exploits a new dataset on the determinants of voting behaviors in over 300 elections held between 1948 and 2020 to document the long-run transformation of political cleavages in 21 Western democracies. In the 1950s-1960s, the vote for left-wing (social democratic and affiliated) parties was associated with lower-educated and low-income voters. It has gradually become associated with higher-educated voters, giving rise to “multi-elite party systems” in the 2000s-2010s: high-education elites now vote for the “left”, while high-income elites still vote for the “right”. This transition has been reinforced by the rise of green and far-right parties since the 1980s and by the emergence of a new "libertarian-authoritarian" axis of political conflict. We also analyze the evolution of other dimensions of political conflict related to age, gender, religion or geography, and provide evidence that the reversal of the educational cleavage is the most significant change, common to nearly all Western democracies, that the structure of electoral behaviors has undergone in the past decades.

• Tuesday 9 March 2021 12:30-13:30

  FABRE Antoine : Udapting rental values for local taxation : an ex ante evaluation in the French context

  Guillaume Chapelle, Chloé Lallemand

  Abstract

  Rental values used for French local taxation on real estate are currently drawn from a 1970 evaluation, and a recent law plans to update them. This will imply a reallocation of these values between households, and then a reallocation of the tax burden. This paper provides an ex ante evaluation of this update, focusing on the biggest French urban areas. We use exhaustive administrative data on local taxation and housing market transactions in order to estimate for each dwelling the difference between the current administrative rental value and an updated one. The year of construction is a significant factor of this difference according to the results. Values of dwellings built before 1950 would increase by 15% on average, while values of the those built after this period would decrease by 16%. Our results also predict substantial increases in values in further suburbs. This could be interpreted as the result of urban sprawl observed over the last 50 years. On average, values of households in the first decile of income would decrease by 5.6%, while those of households in the last decile would increase by 9%.

• Tuesday 2 March 2021 12:30-13:30

  JAFFRELOT Christophe : The deepening and diversification of inequalities in India

  Abstract

  Traditional forms of inequalities along class lines and the urban/rural divide have increased in post-liberalisation India (which did not necessarily mean - till recently - that the poor were getting poorer). But new forms of inequality have also crystallised. In this presentation, I will focus on two recent phenomena: the making of class differentiation within caste groups and the relative socio-economic decline of Muslims vis-à-vis other religious communities.

• Tuesday 23 February 2021 12:30-13:30

  LOJKINE Ulysse (PSE, Université de Nanterre) : Unhappy in its own way. Deunionization in four European countries

  Cyprien Batut, Paolo Santini

  Abstract

  Unionization rates have fallen dramatically in most developed countries. Despite this common fate, de-unionisation is not a uniform phenomenon. In this paper, we look at the evolution of the selection into union in four European countries: France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. Using unexploited micro data coming from post electoral, labor, and household surveys, we first revisit commonly accepted unionization levels from the past 50 years. We find that, for France and Italy, union density was at time under- and over- esti-mated respectively. Second, we present long run evidence on the evolution of the composition of unions in terms of different characteristics (occupation, education, public or private sector,gender). Two pattern of de-unionisation emerge from this analysis, one in which characteristics of union members have remained stable (France and Italy) and one in which they have dramatically changed over time (the UK and Germany). We argue these two trends come from the institutional characteristics in each country.

• Tuesday 16 February 2021 12:30-13:30

  EL HERRADI Mehdi : Inflation and the Income Share of the Rich: Evidence for 14 OECD Countries

  Jakob de Haan and Aurélien Leroy

  Abstract

  This paper examines the distributional implications of inflation on top income shares in 14 advanced economies using data over the period 1920-2016. We use Local Projections to analyze how top income shares respond to an inflation shock, and panel regressions in which all variables are defined as five-year averages to examine the impact of inflation on the position of the top-one-percent in the long run. Our findings suggest that inflation reduces the share of national income held by the top one percent. Furthermore, we find that inflation shocks and long-run inflation have similar effects on top income shares.

• Tuesday 9 February 2021 12:30-13:30

  BHARTI Nitin (PSE) : The Effect of Early Childhood Exposure to Communal Violence on Bail decisions : Evidence from Hindu Muslim Riots in India

  Sutanuka Roy

  Abstract

  Evidence from Early Childhood Exposure to Hindu-Muslim Riots in India : In this paper we estimate the causal impact of exposure to communal riots in early childhood in judicial setup. Our baseline result is that judges exposed to communal violence between ages 0- and 6 years are 16 percent more prone to deny bail than the average judge. Heterogeneity analyses show that the impact is stronger for the experience of riots between the age 3- and 6 years and the age at first exposure at 4 and 5 years. The early exposure effect is further driven by judges exposed to riots that have resulted in lower casualties or duration. We conjecture that exposure to the state’s riot deescalation efforts during formative years has lasting effects on social preferences for strong law and order.

• Tuesday 2 February 2021 12:30-13:30

  ASAI Kentaro (PSE) : Consequence of Hometown Regiment: Gender Imbalance and Industrial Structure in the Post-war Japan

  Ryo Kambayashi (Hitotsubashi University)

  Abstract

  War sometimes made a huge gender imbalance in certain cohort and in certain areas. While such gender imbalance may have moved the trajectory of economic development, the controversy is still inconclusive, because the market economy has a strong restoring force. We intend to contribute to this literature by introducing the Japanese experience during the second world war. Japan lost more than 2 million soldiers eternally between 1938 and 1945. In addition, since the Japan Imperial Army organized its main force as hometown regiment, the loss of young male is concentrated in certain cohort of certain geographical areas. By exploiting the variation of changes in gender balance cohort-by-prefecture, we examined the loss of young male may affect the post-war industrial structure. What we found so far is that the reduction of gender ratio may have led to slower industrialization, though it is only to a limited degree in terms of quantity.

• Tuesday 26 January 2021 12:30-13:30

  BHARTI Nitin (PSE) : Human Capital Accumulation in China and India: 1900-2020

  Li Yang

  Abstract

  In this paper we study the evolution of modern education in China and India and compare several quantitative and qualitative educational outcomes in the last 100-120 years. The interesting patterns we highlight are: China’s bottom-up approach versus India’s top-down approach, China's broad-based vocational education whereas poorly developed vocational education system of India, China producing more engineering graduates versus India producing more humanities graduates. We conjecture that engineering and vocational graduates helped China in developing the manufacturing sector, whereas elitist education of India created a niche economic sector like IT. Further we show a high skill premium for higher education in India compared to China is fuelling more income inequality in India.

• Tuesday 19 January 2021 12:30-13:30

  ANDREESCU Marie (PSE) : Labor facing capital in the workplace: the fate of worker representatives

  with Jérôme Bourdieu, Vladimir Pecheu

  Abstract

  The paper studies how the personal career of union (or worker) representatives is tied to the conditions in which revenues are shared between labor and capital at the firm-level. We argue that employers can have a strategic interest in either favoring or discriminating against union representatives in order to lower workers’ bargaining power. The first strategy (favoritism) amounts to “buying the social peace” and can only be implemented with willing representatives. The second (discrimination) is a way to stigmatize vindictive representatives and curb their demands, notably by discouraging other workers to join the union. The behavior of union representatives during firm negotiations and the stake of those negotiations will influence employers’ willingness to use one or the other of those strategies. This is confirmed by data for France in 2017: for example, union representatives that are most active during their mandate or represent the most campaigning unions have much worse careers than their colleagues, while those that do not participate in strikes experience a large wage premium. Workers are also more likely not to join a union because they fear for their career in firms where union representatives are penalized. Based on the theory and the results, we conclude that the employer ability to substantially affect representatives’ careers can seriously impair the quality of workers’ representation and workers’ ability to organize collectively in order to take effectively part in the firm decision-making process.

• Tuesday 12 January 2021 12:30-13:30

  DARCILLON Thibault : The Brahmin Left, the Merchant Right, and the Bloc Bourgeois

  Bruno Amable (Université de Genève)

  Abstract

  In a recent paper, Piketty (2018) argues that the vote for the left in France, the UK and the USA tends increasingly to be associated with a high education level whereas a traditional class- or income-based divide separated left from right individuals in the 1950s and 1960s. The current situation would be characterized by a dominance of “elites” in left and right constituencies: financially rich elites vote for the right (merchant right), high-education elites vote for the left (brahmin left). Using ISSP data for 17 countries, this paper tests the influence of income and education inequalities on political leaning and a variety of policy preferences: the support for redistribution, for investment in public education, for globalisation and immigration. Results show that income levels are still relevant for the left-right divide, but the influence differs across education levels. Our findings also point to a certain convergence of opinion among the Brahmin left and the merchant right, which could lead to a new political divide beyond the left and the right, uniting a bloc bourgeois.

• Tuesday 5 January 2021 12:30-13:30

  RO'EE LEVY Jonathan (Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics) : If you build it, will they come? Equilibrium effects of subsidizing housing supply

  Abstract

  To reduce rents without stifling housing investment, governments increasingly subsidize privately owned rental housing, conditional on affordability. A simple model suggests that these policies may trigger new investment, but have heterogeneous effects across locations. I exploit quasi-experimental evidence from a tax break for individual landlords in France, and nationwide administrative data covering the universe of transaction deeds, property registries, and building permits. I show that subsidizing private rental housing increased new dwelling sales, promoted additional construction, and shifted the composition of the local housing stock towards rental and multi-family units. Preliminary evidence suggests it may have raised employment, in-migration, and social diversity in targeted areas. However, it led to substantial capitalization into land prices and developer profits, and increased urban sprawl. I plan to use the quasi-experimental results to quantify optimal tax expenditures in spatial equilibrium, where housing subsidies may help correct labor or housing market distortions, but exhibit regressive properties and significant deadweight losses.

• Tuesday 15 December 2020 12:30-13:30

  via ZOOM

  LAVEST Chloé (CAE) : Consumption Dynamics in the COVID Crisis: Real Time Insights from French Data

  Camille Landais (LSE), Etienne Fize (CAE)

  Abstract

  We use anonymised transaction and bank data from France to document the evolution of consumption and savings dynamics since the onset of the pandemic. We find that consumption has dropped very severely during the nation-wide lock- down but experienced a strong and steady rebound during the Summer. The effect of the second lockdown on consumption was significantly smaller. We also document a significant increase in aggregate households’ net financial wealth. This excess savings is extremely heterogenous across the income distribution: 50% of excess wealth accrued to the top decile. Households in the bottom decile of the income distribution experienced a severe decrease in consumption, a decrease in savings and an increase in debt. We estimate marginal propensities to consume and show that their magnitude is large, especially at the bottom of the income and liquidity dis- tributions.

• Tuesday 8 December 2020 12:30-13:30

  via ZOOM

  ASSOUAD Lydia (PSE) : Charismatic Leaders and Nation-Building

  Abstract

  Can leaders shape identity and legitimize new political orders? I address this question by studying the role of Mustafa Kemal, the founder of modern Turkey, in spreading a new national identity. Using a generalized difference-in-differences design that exploits time and geographic variation in Kemal’s visits to districts, I test whether exposure to a charismatic leader affects citizens’ take-up of the new Turkish identity. I find that people living in visited districts are more likely to embrace the national identity, as proxied by the adoption of first names in Pure Turkish, the new language introduced by the state. I show that Kemal was more efficient in rallying people, compared to Ismet Inonu, his Prime Minister, suggesting that he had an idiosyncratic effect. Results are mostly driven by districts where he met with local elites, rather than with the mass, and where he held a speech. Overall, the findings are consistent with the Weberian view that charismatic authority can legitimize new political orders.

• Tuesday 1 December 2020 12:30-13:30

  via ZOOM

  RASTER Tom : The Hanseatic League versus its competitors: Evidence from millions of shipments

  Abstract

  Long-distance trade has emerged and expanded throughout history despite abundant obstacles. How trade regimes, such as merchant guilds, were able to operate under such circumstances has attracted attention from scholars of institutions and market imperfections. However, whether merchant guilds were conducive to overall growth or only benefited a few members of society remains disputed; as is their use of formal versus informal rules in their internal functioning (e.g. Greif, 1989; Ogilvie, 2011). To the best of my knowledge, this paper is the first to quantitatively study how the trade of a merchant guild compares to that of their competitors who do not belong to any guild. I focus on the Hanseatic League (1100s-1669), a trade confederation of, at its peak, almost 200 towns in the German Lands and surrounding areas. Newly collected archival data reveals the extent and timing of each town’s participation in the League’s meetings. I combine this information with expansive, novel data of nearly all maritime trade (1.5 million shipments) between the Baltic and North Sea areas from 1497 to 1700. During this crucial period in history, institutions of the First Commercial Revolution gave way to those of the Second, which oversaw the beginning of Atlantic trade. In the empirical analysis, I exploit features of the trade data to distinguish, for each shipment, whether the trade was conducted by the Hanseatic League, more independent Dutch traders, or by another trading regime. I then compare trade across these regimes along various dimensions, such as trade value, prices (volatility), and type of goods (including new luxuries). In doing so, I test various hypotheses raised in the literature, including the relationship between trade regimes and growth. Preliminary findings suggest marked differences across trade regimes and contribute to our understanding of trade institutions, historical and contemporary, that operate in environments where coordination is difficult.

• Tuesday 24 November 2020 12:30-13:30

  via ZOOM

  ROUSSILLE Nina (UC Berkeley) : The central role of the ask gap in gender pay inequality

  Abstract

  The gender ask gap measures the extent to which women ask for lower salaries than comparable men. This paper studies the role of the ask gap in generating wage inequality using novel data from Hired.com, a leading online recruitment platform for full time engineering jobs in the United States. To use the platform, job candidates must post an ask salary, stating how much they want to make in their next job. Firms then apply to candidates by offering a bid salary they are willing to pay the candidate. If the candidate is hired, a final salary is recorded. After adjusting for resume characteristics, the ask gap is 3.3%, the bid gap is 2.4% and the gap in final offers is 1.8%. Remarkably, further controlling for the ask salary explains all of the gender gaps in bid and final salary on the platform. To estimate the market-level effects of an increase in women’s ask salary, I exploit a sudden change in how candidates were prompted to provide their ask salary. For a subset of candidates, in mid-2018, the answer box used to solicit the ask salary went from an empty field to a pre-filled entry with the median salary on the platform for a similar candidate. Comparing candidates creating a profile before and after the feature change, I find that this change drove the ask gap and the bid gap to zero. In addition, women received the same number of bids before and after the change, suggesting they face little penalty for demanding wages comparable to men.

• Tuesday 17 November 2020 12:30-13:30

  Via Zoom

  URVOY Camille : Political Profit from Nonprofits? Evidence from Governmental Transfers

  Abstract

  Do politicians give money to nonprofit organizations to improve their electoral prospects? In this paper, I study how politicians allocate governmental transfers to nonprofit organizations in France, where they cannot make campaign contributions by law, and campaign spending is limited. To identify electorally motivated transfers, I test whether government officials channel more resources to organizations in municipalities headed by a political ally. Using close elections providing quasi-random variation in mayors’ political affiliation, I show that the government grants significantly more transfers to nonprofit organizations where a well-connected political ally is electorally at risk. Politicians favor ideologically close and influential organizations. The extra amount nonprofit organizations receive dwarfs that spent on campaigning by the average mayoral candidate. Finally, I show that money granted to nonprofit organizations contributes to increasing the lead of ruling party candidates in local elections. My results document a new way politicians use money to sway voters, and provide a more complete picture of how money impacts politics.

• Tuesday 10 November 2020 12:30-13:30

  via ZOOM

  LEROUTIER Marion (PSE) : Maritime Traffic, Air Pollution and Short-Term Health: Evidence from a Large Port City

  with Léo Zabrocki and Marie-Abèle Bind

  Abstract

  Maritime traffic is expected to increase in the coming years due to the growth in international trade and tourism. Today's inhabitants of port cities benefit from the economic activity induced by maritime activities, but they also suffer from local air pollution externalities. These externalities spur protests and are subject to different regulations across the globe. We exploit the quasi-random nature of boat traffic and use a matching procedure to estimate the impact of maritime traffic on local air pollution and health outcomes in Marseille port (France's largest port city). We find that hourly boat traffic variations are associated with small but statistically significant increases in air pollutants known to affect health in both the short- and long-run. We however do not detect any significant impact of daily boat traffic on contemporaneous mortality and hospital emergency admissions. We discuss implications for policies regulating local air pollutants.

• Tuesday 3 November 2020 12:30-13:30

  via ZOOM

  BEHAGHEL Luc (PSE) : Social learning in agriculture: does smallholder heterogeneity impede technology diffusion in Sub-Saharan Africa?

  Karen Macours & Jérémie Gignoux (INRAE/PSE)

  Abstract

  Evaluating a large-scale program for dairy farmers in Uganda, we show that a simple version of the “contact farmer” extension model can meaningfully increase smallholder farmers’ revenues. While the program provides no monetary incentives, we find evidence that two other ingredients – backstopping by professional extension agent and advertising pro-social motivation – reinforce its impacts. Though it has been hypothesized to be a major impediment to social learning in Sub-Saharan African agriculture, we do not find smallholder heterogeneity to condition the effectiveness of the approach: farmer trainers trained to take this heterogeneity into consideration do not perform better; moreover, we find no statistical evidence that program effects vary by farmers’ characteristics.

• Tuesday 27 October 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan sur inscriptions et via ZOOM

  LANDAUD Fanny (NHH) : Where Does Wealth Come From? The Determinants of Wealth over the Lifetime

  with Sandra Black, Paul Devereux and Kjell Salvanes

  Abstract

  There has been much attention given to rising wealth inequality in recent decades. However, understanding this trend requires an understanding of where wealth comes from. Using administrative data from Norway, we create a measure of potential wealth—which abstracts from differential consumption and spending behavior—to examine the role played by different components of wealth in the distribution of potential wealth. We then examine the relationship between potential wealth and observed net wealth. We find that persons in different parts of the potential wealth (or actual wealth) distribution get their wealth from very different sources. Labor income is the most important determinant of wealth, except among the top 1% where capital income and capital gains on financial assets become important. Inheritances and gifts are not an important determinant of wealth, even at the top of the wealth distribution.

• Tuesday 20 October 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan sur inscriptions et via ZOOM

  MESLIN Olivier : Housing Wealth and Redistributive Effects of Property Tax : a Microsimulation Approach on French Data

  ANDRE Mathias

  Abstract

  The property tax on built properties constitutes the main tax on households wealth, and the preponderant role it plays in local taxation has been reinforced by the partial abolition of the housing tax in France. However, the property tax is little studied in France and its redistributive properties remain poorly understood. The contribution of our study is multiple. First of all, it presents a new comprehensive database on household real estate assets from various administrative sources such as the land register (“cadastre”), tax and social income, real estate transactions and data on trading real estate companies (“SCI”). Based on the Fidéli directory developped by Insee, this new source allows a detailed analysis of the concentration of real estate assets. It then details the redistributive properties of the property tax on housing and outbuildings properties. It aims in particular to measure the share of the property tax in the income and in the property holdings of households. We also document the heterogeneity of the receipts of this tax at a fine geographic level. Finally, it offers an analysis of household multi-ownership including real estate companies (“SCI”).

• Tuesday 13 October 2020 12:30-13:30

  Via Zoom

  HU Irène (PSE) : Man Overboard! Industrial Fishing as a Driver of Out-Migration in Africa

  François Libois (PSE/INRAE)

  Abstract

  Environmental drivers of migration attract more and more attention. This article focuses on the effect of fish stock depletion on migration in Africa and uses a novel dataset on fishing intensity (Kroodsma et al., 2018). Based on a panel of the 37 African countries with access to the sea over the period 2012-2018, we show that within country variation in fishing intensity increases migration to OECD countries. We find strong evidence that the competition created by industrial fishing vessels overfishing African seas and depleting fish stocks, increase the number of asylum seekers to OECD in general and of male asylum seekers to European OECD countries in particular. A 1% increase in the previous year’s fishing effort along an African country’s coast increases the number of asylum seekers towards the OECD by 0.05% and by 0.06% the number of male asylum seekers to European OECD countries. We then show that findings at the macro level are consistent in terms of mechanisms with micro level estimates using household level demographic data.

• Tuesday 6 October 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  GETHIN Amory (PSE) : Estimating the Distribution of Household Wealth in South Africa

  Aroop Chatterjee, Léo Czajka

  Abstract

  This paper estimates the distribution of personal wealth in South Africa by combining tax microdata covering the universe of income tax returns, household surveys and macroeconomic balance sheets statistics. We systematically compare estimates of the wealth distribution obtained by direct measurement of net worth, rescaling of reported wealth to balance sheets totals, and capitalisation of income flows. We document major inconsistencies between available data sources, in particular regarding the measurement of dividends, corporate assets and wealth held through trusts. Both household surveys and tax data remain insufficient to properly capture capital incomes. Notwithstanding a significant degree of uncertainty, our findings reveal unparalleled levels of wealth concentration. The top 10 per cent own 86 per cent of aggregate wealth and the top 0.1 per cent close to one third. The top 0.01 per cent of the distribution (3,500 individuals) concentrate 15 per cent of household net worth, more than the bottom 90 per cent as a whole. Such high levels of inequality can be accounted for in all forms of assets at the top end, including housing, pension funds and other financial assets. Our series show no sign of decreasing wealth inequality since apartheid: if anything, we find that inequality has remained broadly stable and has even slightly increased within top wealth groups.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 September 2020 12:30-13:30

  Unequal access to higher education based on parental income: evidence from France

• Tuesday 29 September 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  BONNEAU Cécile (PSE) : Unequal access to higher education based on parental income: evidence from France

  Abstract

  We study for the first time in France inequalities of access to higher education according to parental income. We are using the National Youth Resources Survey (ENRJ, Enquête Nationale sur les Ressources des Jeunes, Drees-Insee, 2014; N = 5,200), income-tax data on parental income matched with a survey on the young adult's situation and resources. Strong differences in access to higher education, student aspirations, path followed and diploma obtained according to parents' income are observed, particularly within the last decile and up to the last percentile. Our results indicate a level of inequality close to that observed in the United States. We propose descriptive ways of decomposing within the effect of parental income on access to higher education, the share linked to financial transfers and the share linked to human capital.

• Tuesday 22 September 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  SCHNEIDER-STRAWCZYNSKI Sarah (PSE) : Can Natives Change their Mind? Hosting Refugees and Far-right Support in France

  Abstract

  This paper examines the political economy of refugee-hosting. Using the opening of refugee centers in France between 1995 and 2017, I show that the voting for far-right parties has decreased by about 2 percent in cities with such an opening between two presidential elections. I demonstrate that this can not be explained by an economic channel, but rather by the composition and contact channels. I consider the contact theory in relation to the threshold theory, to provide suggestive evidence that too-disruptive contacts, as measured by the magnitude of the flows, geographical distance from natives, cultural distance and media salience of refugees, can mitigate the beneficial effects of contact on the reduction of far-right support.

• Tuesday 15 September 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan

  KNEBELMANN Justine (Sciences Po) : The (Un)Hidden Wealth of the City: Property Taxation under Weak Enforcement in Senegal

  Abstract

  Property taxes are in theory easy to enforce in their simplest form due to their tangible tax base, and are considered an equitable means to raise revenue in low-income countries. In spite of these features, African countries, where cities are growing at an unprecedented pace and need additional resources to fund local public goods, are raising only 2 percent of fiscal revenue in property taxes, against around 9 percent in OECD countries, and this figure is at 0.7 percent in Senegal. Focusing on Dakar, the capital city where real estate has been buoyant over past decades, I document the extent and nature of the property tax gap. Using both administrative and survey data, as well as satellite images for property valuation purposes, I estimate that less than 20 percent of property owners are in the tax net, and that only 10 percent of tax potential is being collected. I put this weak performance into historical perspective with novel data on the colonial period and show that fiscal pressure peaked in the 1930s, at twice today’s levels. Finally, using real estate values, I compare the observed distribution of the tax burden with the theoretical one under full compliance, and find that weak enforcement leads to a tax profile that is more regressive than what is provided for ‘on paper’: the share of liability being recovered and the effective tax rate decrease with property value. This reinforces the justification for reform and modernization. This paper is a preliminary study for an ongoing field experiment, in which a modernized property tax management program is introduced to address these challenges.

• Tuesday 8 September 2020 12:30-13:30

  * * : Workers Across Borders: Equity-Efficiency Trade-Offs in Mobility Policies

  Abstract

  This paper studies coordinated public policies designed to boost the cross-border mobility of workers. I exploit the unique setting provided by a Europe-wide mobility scheme, exempting workers “posted abroad by firms from tax and social contributions in their destination country. I assemble novel and exhaustive administrative data from several countries on sending and receiving firms, as well as mobile and domestic workers affected by the policy, to study its effects on labour market and fiscal outcomes. Drawing on rich exogenous variations in mobility incentives and regulations, I examine the potential wage and profits mobility premia, to understand how the efficiency surplus from increased integration is shared between workers, government and firms, within and across countries. My analysis highlights the efficiency-equity trade-offs faced by policy-makers in the design and implementation of these policies. I use my results to shed light on government incentives to coordinate or defect in free-movement areas, and to discuss the overall welfare implications of international workers' mobility.

• Tuesday 30 June 2020 16:00-17:00

  Zoom

  DERENONCOURT Ellora (Berkeley) : Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration

  Abstract

  This paper shows that racial composition shocks during the Great Migration (1940-1970) lowered black upward mobility in the northern United States. I identify northern black population increases using a shift-share instrument, interacting pre-1940 black migrants’ location choices with predicted southern county out-migration. The Migration’s effects on children are driven by locational factors, not negative selection of families. Using data I assembled on destinations from 1920-2015, I show the Migration led to persistent segregation and higher police spending, crime, and incarceration from the 1960s onwards. The changes induced by the Migration explain 27% of the region’s racial upward mobility gap today.

• Tuesday 9 June 2020 13:00-14:00

  Zoom

  ALMEIDA Vanda : Accounting for the distributional effects of the 2007-2008 crisis and the Economic Adjustment Program in Portugal

  Abstract

  This paper develops a new method to model the household disposable income distribution and decompose changes in this distribution (or functionals such as inequality measures) over time. It integrates both a micro-econometric and microsimulation approaches, combining a flexible parametric modelling of the distribution of market income with the EUROMOD microsimulation model to simulate the value of taxes and benefits. The method allows for the quantification of the contributions of four main factors to changes in the disposable income distribution between any two years: (i) labour market structure; (ii) returns; (iii) demographic composition; and (iv) tax-benefit system. We apply this new framework to the study of changes in the income distribution in Portugal between 2007 and 2013, accounting for the distributional effects of the 2007-2008 crisis and aftermath policies, in particular the Economic Adjustment Program (EAP). Results show that these effects were substantial and reflected markedly different developments over two periods: 2007-2009, when stimulus packages determined important income gains for the bottom of the distribution and a decrease in income inequality; 2010-2013, when the crisis and austerity measures took a toll on the incomes of Portuguese households, particularly those at the bottom and top of the distribution, leading to an increase in income inequality.

• Tuesday 2 June 2020 14:00-15:00

  Zoom

  DAGEFÖRDE Mirjam (Sciences-Po, Humboldt University) : Against the ‘common wisdom’? How voters evaluate representation in diverging electoral contexts

  Abstract

  This article argues that the debate on representation and the electoral context lacks both (1) a notion of citizens’ individual representational judgments and (2) a focus on the representational link between citizens and parliamentary parties. Hence, it develops a typology of congruence between citizens and parliamentary parties by presenting micro concepts of congruence. (3) The article refers to recent contradictory findings with regard to the relation of electoral systems and congruence, revisiting the debate on context and congruence when putting citizens center stage. The article proceeds as follows: first, it theorizes how a citizen evaluates representation; second, it formulates normative criteria for judging representation, developing empirical indicators for measuring congruence at the micro level by presenting a typology; third, it shows how the micro perspective refutes the ‘common wisdom’ of comparative politics by pointing out that under some conditions, proportional systems lead to lower degrees of congruence than majoritarian systems.

• Tuesday 26 May 2020 14:00-15:00

  Zoom

  GALBIATI Roberto (Sciences-Po) : Wealth Accumulation and Institutional Capture: the Rise of the Medici and the Fall of the Florentine Republic

  Marianna Belloc, Francesco Drago and Mattia Fochesato

  Abstract

  We study the rise of the Medici family and the fall of the Florentine Republic in the 15th century. In this period, political offices were assigned by a system which combined elections and selection by lot. During the 1420s, the Medici family increased its influence and de facto captured the system of office allocation while leaving the political institutions formally unchanged. We use data on the results of the drawings for the four main government offices of the city between 1395 and 1457 and match them with data on individual wealth at different points in time in the 15th century. Our analysis documents the systematic capture of the process of office allocation in favor of individuals belonging to the Medici’s network. When we move to the analysis of the relationship between wealth and political office holders, we show that after the Medici’s institutional soft-capture, holding a political office is strongly and directly associated with individual wealth accumulation, especially for office holders from the Medici faction. By contrast, we find a very limited effect between the number of terms in office and individual wealth before the rise of the Medici to political power. By comparing results for the two periods, before and after the institutional capture, and using complementary data sources, we provide several pieces of evidence that explain our findings in terms of collusion and rent extraction.

• Tuesday 19 May 2020 12:00-13:00

  Zoom

  LACROIX Jean (Université Paris-Saclay) : Democratic purges in 1945 France: Was it all about separating the wheat from the chaff?

  Toke S. Aidt and Pierre-Guillaume Méon

  Abstract

  To facilitate their consolidation, new democracies often purge supporters of former regimes. We refer to such purges as democratic purges. As opposed to purges in autocracies, democratic purges must strike a balance between annihilating the threats from the associates of the former regime and following the rule of law. How do new democracies strike this balance? In 1945, France set up an extraordinary Court aimed at legally purging the members of the Vichy regime: the Jury d’Honneur. In this paper, we investigate the bias of the Jury d’Honneur to clear politicians. To distinguish statistical discrimination from taste-based discrimination, we see if the cases in which the Jury d’Honneur overruled the opinions of local courts exhibit the same characteristics. As we observe that the Jury d’Honneur biased its decision towards different groups, we focus on the in-group bias it had towards law graduates, a historically powerful group in French politics. The Jury overruled the decision of local courts to purge law graduates in 26.47 percent of the cases whereas it did so in 13.49 percent of the cases for other defendants. In front of the Jury, the clearance rate of law graduates was 8 percentage points higher than other politicians’ whereas it was 2 percentage points lower in front of local courts. A network analysis of documents contained in individual files moreover points to the connections of law graduates as a factor explaining the bias of the Jury d’Honneur. This bias was not unconsequential as it appeared mainly in electoral litigations cases.

• Tuesday 12 May 2020 14:00-15:00

  Zoom

  MARTÍNEZ-TOLEDANO Clara (Imperial College London) : Paraísos Fiscales, Wealth and Mobility

  David Agrawal and Dirk Foremny

  Abstract

  Historically, Spain had a centralized wealth tax, but since the late nineties the authority to set wealth taxes was decentralized to the regions. However, it was only following a brief suppression during the recent financial crisis that regions started to take substantial advantage of this decentralization. Although most regions levied top tax rates of 2.5% to 3.75%, Madrid elected not to adopt a wealth tax. This provides a unique opportunity to study the mobility of taxable wealth. We exploit administrative data on individual wealth tax returns prior to the decentralization, along with longitudinal data on individual capital income tax returns and residential locations. Exploiting a generalized difference-in-differences design, we find that regional wealth taxes substantially affect the location of taxable wealth. By four years following the decentralization, the share of wealth tax filers and the share of taxable wealth in Madrid increased by approximately 7%. We then turn to an individual location choice model and find that a one percentage point increase in the net-of-tax rate for a region increases the probability of relocating wealth to that region by 8 percentage points. The effects of wealth taxes are largest for older individuals, but do not depend on the amount of real estate, suggesting that the relocation of wealth is driven by tax evasion rather than real relocations. Overall, our results have important implications for the design of wealth taxes, as recently proposed in several countries.

• Tuesday 5 May 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SCARELLI Thiago (PSE) : Constrained Own-Account Work in Developing Markets: Evidence from Brazil - Reporté

  Abstract

  This study explores a fundamental trade-off imposed by imperfect labor markets: individuals may work on their own at any time, but they can only occupy a potentially more productive wage job after a search period. We formalize this intuition using a simple extension of the canonical job search framework, which leads to a set of implications that can help to explain the prevalence of own-account work in developing labor markets. In particular, we show that a suffciently high time discount rate can rationalize the puzzling choice of own-account work when it offers a lower instantaneous return relative to wage employment. In the second half of this research, we use this theoretical structure to empirically characterize the minimum discount rate that is consistent with the observed occupational decisions of Brazilian own-account workers given the wage employment opportunities they potentially face. In our baseline speciffication, we find that in nearly 70% of the cases the lower bound implied by the observed choices is strictly above the rates available on the credit market, which we interpret as evidence of a financially constrained occupational choice. This result suggests that the majority of own-account work in Brazil is driven by the combination of labor market frictions and financial market failures.

• Tuesday 28 April 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SIGNORELLI Sara (University of Amsterdam) : TBA - REPORTÉ

• Tuesday 21 April 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GUYON Nina (ENS-PSL and PSE) : TBA - REPORTÉ

• Tuesday 14 April 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LEROUTIER Marion (PSE) : TBA - REPORTÉ

  ZABROCKI Leo (PSE)

• Tuesday 7 April 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SACHS Dominik (University of Munich (LMU)) : TBA - REPORTÉ

• Tuesday 31 March 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SCHNEIDER-STRAWCZYNSKI Sarah (PSE) : Do people change their mind ? Hosting Refugees and Far Right Support in France - REPORTÉ

• Tuesday 24 March 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MICHEL Bastien (PSE) : Custodial vs. Non-Custodial Punishments: Measuring the Impact of an Anticipated Reform - REPORTÉ

  Camille Hemet (ENS, PSE)

  Abstract

  We study a reform of the Danish legislation after which most offenders tried for drunk-driving received a non-custodial sanction instead of a custodial one. We show that stakeholders anticipated the consequences of the reform as selection is observed in the nature of the cases tried before and after the reform. To measure its impact, we use an instrumental variable approach exploiting the fact that the closer to the reform a crime was committed, the more likely the defendant was to be tried after. Offenders who received a non-custodial sentence commit fewer crimes and have stronger ties to the labor market.

• Tuesday 17 March 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GALBIATI Roberto (Sciences-Po) : Wealth Accumulation and Institutional Capture: the Rise of the Medici and the Fall of the Florentine Republic - REPORTÉ

  Marianna Belloc, Francesco Drago, Mattia Fochesato

  Abstract

  We study the rise of the Medici family and the fall of the Florentine Republic in the 15th century. In this period, political offices were assigned by a system which combined elections and selection by lot. During the 1420s, the Medici family increased its influence and de facto captured the system of office allocation while leaving the political institutions formally unchanged. We use data on the results of the drawings for the four main government offices of the city between 1395 and 1457 and match them with data on individual wealth at different points in time in the 15th century. Our analysis documents the systematic capture of the process of office allocation in favor of individuals belonging to the Medici’s network. When we move to the analysis of the relationship between wealth and political office holders, we show that after the Medici’s institutional soft-capture, holding a political office is strongly and directly associated with individual wealth accumulation, especially for office holders from the Medici faction. By contrast, we find a very limited effect between the number of terms in office and individual wealth before the rise of the Medici to political power. By comparing results for the two periods, before and after the institutional capture, and using complementary data sources, we provide several pieces of evidence that explain our findings in terms of collusion and rent extraction.

• Tuesday 10 March 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BLANC Guillaume (University of Manchester) : Modernization Before Industrialization: Cultural Roots of the Demographic Transition in France

  Abstract

  This research identifies the origins of the early demographic transition in France, before the French Revolution and more than a century before the rest of Europe. We provide strong empirical evidence suggesting that secularization accounts for the bulk of the decline in fertility and document large, significant, and robust results across specifications, datasets, and estimation methods. We draw on a novel individual-level historical dataset crowdsourced from publicly available genealogies to establish a causal interpretation. This dataset allows to control for time-varying unobservables, to study the effect of secularization before and after demographic change, and to exploit the choice of migrants in the aftermath of the decline in religiosity. Finally, we discuss the roots of the rapid and early process of secularization and suggest that the strength of the Counter Reformation following the demise of Protestantism in France played an important part. Our findings demonstrate that cultural change and the transition to modernity and away from tradition can shape development.

• Tuesday 3 March 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE) : Reading Twitter in the Newsroom: How Social Media affects Traditional-Media Reporting?

  Sophie Hatte, Etienne Madinier

  Abstract

  Do social media affect traditional media reporting? We estimate whether and how the coverage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by US TV channels is affected by the flow of tweets released from Israel and Palestine. For identification, we exploit exogenous variation in internet access in Israel and Palestine and electrostatic discharges during thunderstorms. We find systematic evidence that social media does change the reporting by traditional media. Twitter activity increases both the likelihood and the length of coverage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On average, the Palestinian side of the story is less likely to be reported. We provide some evidence that Twitter helps portray the Palestinian side of the story.

• Tuesday 25 February 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GROBON Sebastien (Dares, INED) : Do public scholarships crowd out parental transfers? Evidence from France

  François-Charles Wolff (Université de Nantes – Lemna)

  Abstract

  We investigate the extent to which means-tested scholarships awarded to higher education students in France crowd out parental financial support, explore the implications of this estimation when testing the parental altruism model, and analyze the incidence of targeted support for youth. Our results provide some of the first causal evidence on the important effect that public transfers have on private transfers in a developed country. We focus on the intensive margin using a sample of 694 scholarship recipients aged 18 to 24, and our instrumental variable estimation exploits the non-linear schedule of the scholarship amount. To estimate a reliable private transfer function and to provide a comprehensive measurement of parental transfers, we use parental fiscal data complemented by a survey of young adults (2014). A substantial part of a student scholarship benefits parents: for each additional euro of scholarship, the private transfer amount is reduced by 0.50 to 0.65 euros. This incomplete crowding out supports the “impure altruism” hypothesis (Andreoni, 1989), while complete crowding out seems to be verified only for separated parents and the youngest children. As parents are secondary beneficiaries of the policy, our results confirm the relevance of considering parental resources in defining policies for young adults before the age of 20–21. As young adults gain more autonomy after these ages, the crowding-out effects seem to diminish and thus limit the possibility of a windfall effect for parents.

• Tuesday 18 February 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CASANUEVA ARTIS Annalí : Can chant on the street change Parliament's tune ?. The effects of the 15M social movement on electoral results

  Abstract

  This paper investigates the causal effects of the main demonstration organized by a wider social movement in Spain (15M) on short and medium-term electoral results. Using a unique self-constructed database of the number of demonstrators in the main demonstration of the 15M movement, I estimate the electoral effects of the movement six months, four, five, six and eights years after the movement took place. Using unpleasant weather (either rainy or too hot) as an instrument for the number of participants in the demonstration of the 19th of June 2011, I find that in regions that hosted relatively bigger demonstrations, voting patterns corresponded more closely to the messages spread by the movement compared to other regions and that those effects last over time, with dynamic differences depending on the political offer in different elections. I also investigate the mechanisms and find evidence supporting an increased concern about corruption as well as the creation of a network on social media around the 15M movement that was used afterwards by the new party Podemos to spread its message. Taken together, these results show that new social movements can have medium term lasting effects and can notably change the composition of a country's Parliament.

• Tuesday 11 February 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PAUL-VENTURINE Julia : Reducing the gender pay gap: can we trust firms to take action?

  Abstract

  All around the world, one of the most common and persistent characteristics of labor markets is that women's earnings are lower than those of men. In France, women earn about 20% less than men and the cost of this discrimination against women is estimated to be substantial. Policies to decrease the gender pay gap are thus key but state intervention is often criticized as creating one-approach-for-all which is inappropriate for the specific difficulties faced by each sector and firm. In this context, France decided in November 2010 to decentralize the level of action by making mandatory for firms of more than 50 employees to negotiate agreements on professional equality between men and women. In this paper, I estimate the causal effect of the signature of such agreements on the wage gap and other measures of gender inequalities. Using a unique combination of administrative datasets, I exploit the staggered signature of agreements over the 2010-2013 period and find that the law had indeed an effect on the signature of those agreements but none on the gender wage gap or on any other measure of inequalities. Those results can be explained by several factors. First, the law made mandatory the signature of agreements but no obligation of results was put in place. Second, the labour inspectors would enforce only the signature of agreements but not their content. Hence, firms did sign agreements but without negotiating any constraining actions, leading to those null effects.

• Tuesday 4 February 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  KNEBELMANN Justine (Sciences Po) : The Long Way to Gender Equality: Gender Differences in Pay in Germany, 1871-2016

  Abstract

  The role of women in the economies of industrialized countries and, thus, their societal status and opportunities have changed radically in the last 150 years. While scholars estimated the long-run development of gender pay differences for the USA, Sweden and the United Kingdom, long-run trends for Germany are scarce. This paper examines the long-run development of the gender pay ratio in Germany from the 1870s until the present day. Using official inquiry reports, contemporary academic works, and publications of the Statistical Offices, it shows that the German path towards gender equality in pay has parallel dynamics to the Swedish case and very different patterns compared to the US-American experience. While the gender pay ratio made a great leap forward during the interwar period, slower growth characterizes the post-war period. Migration of women into white-collar work combined with the progressive institutional framework of the Weimar Republic might be one essential lever for the observed increase in the interwar period.

• Tuesday 28 January 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GUILLOUZOUIC Arthur (IPP) : Follow the money! Combining household and firm-level evidence to untangle the tax-elasticity of dividends

  Laurent Bach, Antoine Bozio, Brice Fabre, Claire Leroy et Clément Malgouyres.

• Tuesday 21 January 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GOVIND Yajna (PSE, WID) : Naturalisation: Passport to better labour market performances? Evidence from mixed marriages in France

  Abstract

  Better integration is beneficial for migrants and the host country. In this respect, granting citizenship is deemed to be an important policy to boost migrants’ integration. In this paper, I estimate the causal impact of obtaining citizenship on migrants’ labor market integration. I exploit a change in the law of naturalization through marriage in France in 2006. This reform amended the eligibility criteria of applicants by increasing the required number of years of marital life from 2 to 4, providing a quasi-experimental setting. Using administrative panel data, I first show evidence of the impact of the reform on the naturalization rates. I then use a dynamic triple-differences model to estimate the labor market returns to naturalization. I find that citizenship leads to increased labor market participation. Among those working, it leads to higher overall earnings associated with both an increased number of hours worked and higher hourly wages. A gender decomposition shows that the effect on the increased probability of working is more relevant for men. On the other hand, among those working, women tend to be the ones benefiting from higher overall earnings as a result of an increased number of hours and hourly wages.

• Tuesday 14 January 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  NAVARRETE H. Nicolas (Paris School of Economics ) : Behind the Veil: the Effect of Banning the Islamic Veil in School

  Abstract

  Immigration from Muslim countries is a source of tensions in many Western countries. Several countries have adopted regulations restricting religious expression and emphasizing the neutrality of the public sphere. We explore the effect of the most emblematic of these regulations: the prohibition of Islamic veils in French schools. In September 1994, a circular from the French Ministry of Education asked teachers and principals to ban Islamic veils in public schools. In March 2004, the parliament took one-step further and enshrined prohibition in law. This paper provides evidence that the 1994 circular contributed to improving the educational outcomes of female students with a Muslim background and to reducing educational inequalities between Muslim and non-Muslim students. We also provide evidence suggesting that the 2004 law has not generated any further improvements.

• Tuesday 7 January 2020 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BERGERON Augustin (Harvard University) : Local Elites as Tax Collectors: Experimental Evidence from the DRC

  Abstract

  Historical states with low capacity often empowered local elites to collect taxes, despite the risk of mismanagement. Could local tax collection raise revenues without undermining government legitimacy in fragile states today? We provide evidence from a field experiment in which the Provincial Government of Kasai Central, in the DR Congo, randomly assigned city neighborhoods to centralized property tax collection, conducted by agents of the tax ministry, or local tax collection, conducted by neighborhood chiefs. Local collection generated 30% higher revenues and 24% lower transaction costs compared to central collection. Although there is evidence of a small increase in bribes, local collection did not undermine citizens’ views of the government; in fact, it increased reported confidence in the formal state. Hybrid treatment arms and survey evidence suggest that local chiefs achieved higher citizen tax compliance because of their informational advantages rather than a differential ability to threaten sanctions, to make salient the public-goods-tax link, or to motivate tax morale.

• Tuesday 17 December 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GLEYZE Simon (PSE) : Segregation and Expectation Formation on the Returns to Schooling

  Philippe Jehiel (PSE/UCL)

  Abstract

  We show that low credit constraints together with high returns to schooling are consistent with low investment in human capital if students form their expectation on the returns to schooling by word-of-mouth learning. Under rational expectations, computing these expected returns requires to know the joint distribution of schooling, ability and wages. Instead, in our model students estimate this joint distribution by sampling their social network with a selection bias toward students with similar ability. The perceived returns to schooling exhibit regression to the mean compared to the opportunity cost, leading to self-selection and equilibrium mismatch. We discuss policy implications and show that quotas might be ineffective. We then derive a new form of bias in the estimated returns to schooling from Mincer equations. It is caused by the equilibrium misallocation of students to schools leading to a downward "mismatch bias" on the estimated returns. Finally, we discuss econometric issues in demand estimation from matching data and show that most identifying assumptions (Nash equilibrium, stability, undominated strategies, etc.) induce biased estimates of structural parameters.

• Tuesday 10 December 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ASSOUAD Lydia (PSE) : Charismatic Leaders and Nation building: Ataturk's visits in Turkey

  Abstract

  Can leaders successfully shape beliefs and social norms? I address this question by studying the role of Mustafa Kemal, the founder of modern Turkey, in spreading a new national identity. Using a generalized difference-in-differences design, that exploits time and geographic variation in Kemal’s visits to cities, I test whether direct exposure to a charismatic leader affects citizens' take-up of the new national identity. I show that cities visited are more likely to embrace the common identity, as proxied by the adoption of first names in "Pure Turkish", the new language introduced by the state. I investigate the mechanisms and find that Kemal was more efficient in spreading a new identity compared to Ismet Inonu his "second man", suggesting that he did not only have a pure informational effect. This is consistent with the Weberian view that "charismatic authority" can play a role in legitimizing new social orders.

• Tuesday 3 December 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GUILLAUD Elvire (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) : The Law of Rank

  Michaël Zemmour (U Paris 1 Pantheon Sorbonne, CES & Sciences Po, LIEPP)

  Abstract

  In comparing tax systems across developed countries, scholars generally stress differences. However, we point to a relationship common to all countries when we consider the link between tax rates and income percentile rather than the link between tax rates and income level. Across all countries, this relationship is (1) remarkably linear, (2) with a uniform slope of 3%. The additional tax that one has to pay when climbing in the income ladder is therefore the same everywhere. We call this common shape of taxation the ’Law of rank’. We establish this stylized fact for 22 OECD countries over 17 years, using LIS dataset supplemented with OECD tax data. Combined with the different pretax income distributions and the various average tax rates across developed economies, this ’Law of rank’ has important theoretical implications, as it allows us to predict the well-known properties of existing tax schedules: (i) Local progressivity in taxation is higher when income inequality is low (i.e. when the gap in income from one fractile to the next is small); (ii) Marginal tax rates are increasing in income, before to decrease for top incomes in every country – yet at different paces; (iii) Global pro- gressivity in taxation (Kakwani disproportionality measure) decreases with the country average tax rate.

• Tuesday 26 November 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BAU Natalie (UCLA) : Misallocation and Capital Market Integration: Evidence from India

  Adrien Matray (Princeton)

  Abstract

  Using the staggered liberalization of access to foreign capital across highly disaggregated Indian industries, we show that capital misallocation is an important contributor to low aggregate productivity. The natural policy experiment allows us to credibly identify changes in firms’ input wedges, addressing major challenges in the measurement of misallocation. For domestic firms with initially high marginal revenue products of capital (MRPK), liberalization increased revenues by 18%, physical capital by 60%, wage bills by 26%, and reduced the marginal revenue product of capital by 43%. There were no effects on firms with low MRPK. The effects of liberalization are largest in areas with less developed local banking sectors, indicating that foreign investors may substitute for an efficient banking sector. Finally, we develop a new method to use natural experiments to estimate the lower bound effect of changes in misallocation on manufacturing productivity and conclude that the liberalization increased the aggregate productivity of the Indian manufacturing sector by at least 7.6%.

• Tuesday 19 November 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BAUMARD Nicolas : The Origins of Romantic Love and Asceticism : How Economic Prosperity Changed Human Psychology in Medieval Europe

  Elise Huilerie, Léo Zabrocki

  Abstract

  In this paper, we study the effect of economic development on human psychology during the Middle Ages (600-1600) in a panel of European countries. We show that the increasing prosperity enjoyed by Europeans during this period transformed their psychology and shifted their preferences away from purely materialistic motivations toward higher motivations which include strong emotional attachment, commitment, self-discipline, renunciation of material possessions for spiritual goals, and intrinsic motivation. To test this idea, we construct a unique database on two behaviors that express these motivations romantic love and asceticism from relatively homogenous sources over the long-term: the biographies of the saints for asceticism, and the topics of narrative fictions for romantic love. We use the introduction of the heavy plow as an instrument for economic prosperity (in the form of population density) to identify the causal impact of economic prosperity on these behaviors. Our results show that higher population density caused a rise in love and asceticism, which provides first macro-economic and historical evidence that economic development had a causal effect on human psychology in medieval Europe.

• Tuesday 12 November 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  YANG Li (ZEW Mannheim and WIL) : From workers to capitalists in less than two generations: A study of Chinese urban elite transformation between 1988 and 2013

  Filip Novokmet, Branko Milanovic

  Abstract

  Economic and social transformation of China during the past 40 years is without precedent in human history. While the economic transformation was extensively studied, social transformation was not. In this paper, we use for the first time harmonized household surveys covering the period 1988-2013 to study the changes in the characteristics the richest 5 percent of China’s urban population. We find that the elite changed from being composed of high government officials, clerical staff, and workers in 1988 to professionals and small and large business owners in 2013. The educational level of the elite increased substantially. Membership in CCP has a positive (albeit small) effect on one’s income but is particularly valuable to large business owners.

• Tuesday 5 November 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  JOHNSEN Gudrun : The Fall of the Icelandic Banking System and the Wages of Failure

  Abstract

  Iceland’s banking collapse has been the largest, relative to the size of the economy, suffered by any country in modern economic history. In this seminar, Guðrún Johnsen provides an overview of the methodology and conclusions of the Icelandic Parliament's Special Investigation Commission on the causes and events leading up to the fall of the Icelandic banking system. She will also describe the executive compensation arrangements in the failed banks and how incentive schemes led to misreporting of profits and equity levels, embezzlement of the funds of publicly owned companies and massive market manipulation, keeping the promises of the incentives schemes alive for the bankers, whilst the investing public was defrauded and financial supervisors derailed by false market signals.

• Tuesday 29 October 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BLANCHET Thomas : Modelling the Dynamics of Wealth Inequality in the United States: 1962–2100

  Abstract

  I decompose the dynamics of the wealth distribution using a simple dynamic stochastic model that separates the effects of consumption, labor income, rates of return, growth, demographics and inheritance. Based on two results of stochastic calculus, I show that this model is nonparametrically identified and can be estimated using only repeated cross-sections of the data. I estimate it using distributional national accounts for the United States since 1962. I find that, out of the 15 pp. increase in the top 1% wealth share observed since 1980, about 7 pp. can be attributed to rising labor income inequality, 6 pp. to rising returns on wealth (mostly in the form of capital gains), and 2 pp. to lower growth. Under current parameters, the top 1% wealth share would reach its steady-state value of roughly 45% by the 2040s, a level similar to that of the beginning of the 20th century. These conclusions apply to a wide class of models of the wealth distribution, regardless of the specific ways in which they model, say, consumption or the labor market.

• Tuesday 22 October 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MEHMOOD Sultan : Judicial Independence and Development: Evidence from Pakistan

  Abstract

  To what extent does the Presidential appointment of judges impact judicial decision making? This paper provides causal evidence that the institution of Presidential appointment exerts considerable influence on judicial decision making in Pakistan. We find that a change in selection procedure of judges from Presidential appointment to appointment by a judicial commission (consisting of peer judges) significantly reduces rulings in favor of the government and that this reduction reflects an improvement in the quality of judicial decisions. Using mandatory retirement age as an instrument for new appointments allows us to estimate the causal effect of the reform. We test for, and provide evidence against, potential threats to identification and alternative explanations to our findings. The analysis of case content reveals that the results are explained by rulings in politically salient cases. We find evidence of selection effects mechanism: judges appointed by the President are more likely to have been politically active prior to their appointment. We also find a positive welfare effect of the reform, with lower expropriation risk leading to increased investment in the construction industry and higher house prices.

• Tuesday 15 October 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CARPETTINI Bruno (University of Zurich ) : The electoral impact of wealth redistribution: Evidence from the Italian land reform

  Lorenzo Casaburi

  Abstract

  Governments often implement large-scale redistribution policies to gain political support. However, little is known on whether such policies generate sizable gains, whether these gains are persistent, and why. We study the political consequences of a major land redistribution program in Italy. Using a panel spatial regression discontinuity design, we show that the reform generated large electoral gains for the incumbent Christian Democratic party, and similarly large losses for the Communist party. The electoral effects persist over four decades, during a period in which the agricultural sector shrank dramatically. We explore several mechanisms for this persistence. Analysis of fiscal transfers, public sector employment, and referendum outcomes suggests that the reform initiated a repeated exchange: the incumbent party continued promoting the interests of treated towns even after the land redistribution ended and the voters continued supporting this party. Additional analysis finds less support for other potential mechanisms, including voters' long-term memory, changes in voters' beliefs, and mechanical correlation in voting over time.

• Tuesday 8 October 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SIDOIS Charles-Louis (Mannheim ) : Silence the Media or the Story? Theory and Evidence of Media capture.

  Elisa Mougin (Sciences-Po)

  Abstract

  We explore a theory of media capture where a principal can either influence journalistic investigation (internal capture) or let the media investigate and pay to suppress news stories before publication (external capture). We predict that the likelihood of internal capture increases with perceived corruption while competition on the media market favors external capture. Exploiting new individual survey data from Reporters Without Borders, we use the revelation of the Panama Papers in 2016 as a shock to perceived corruption. With a differences-in-differences identification strategy that exploits the cross-country variation in exposure to the shock, we show that internal capture increases with perceived corruption.

• Tuesday 1 October 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ARIELL Reshef : Are Your Labor Shares Set in Beijing? The View through the Lens of Global Value Chains

  Abstract

  We study the evolution of labor shares while taking into account international trade based on value added concepts. On average, labor shares decline significantly in 1995-2007 and then recover somewhat in 2007-2014. Skilled labor shares increase strongly and uniformly throughout 1995-2014. Globalization consistently pushes labor shares down due to greater reliance on intermediate input trade, which is relatively capital intensive; complex global value chains are an important dimension of this process. Within-industry changes account for the reversal in the decline in labor shares after 2007, and almost all of the increase in skilled labor shares; we explain this by declines in the price of capital in the presence of capital-skill complementarity, together with within-industry forward GVC integration. Compared to shares in GDP, labor shares in gross national product (GNP) are higher in countries with positive net FDI positions; the uneven spread of multinational activity contributes to greater inequality through this channel.

• Tuesday 24 September 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PROVENZANO Sandro (LSE) : Capital City Isolation in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Paradox of the Isolated Poor

  Abstract

  We put forward the geographic positioning of areas relative to the political center within the country, the capital city, as an important determinant of economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. We exploit the fact that African boundaries divide pre-colonial ethnic homelands with similar geographical characteristics to obtain a quasi-random variation in distance to the capital city. Using VIIRS nightlights as a proxy for economic activity, we isolate a negative causal impact of isolation to the capital city on economic performance. In contrast, isolation from other major cities turns out insignificant. This supports the view that distance to the political center is the driving force behind the effects. Regarding the economic link between capital city isolation and economic activity, we document a lower level of public goods provision in isolated areas. However, despite being discriminated against, people in isolated areas, paradoxically, exhibit a higher level of trust in their political leaders.

• Tuesday 17 September 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LOPEZ-FORERO Margarita (Université d’Evry, Paris-Saclay) : Productivity, Labor Shares and Tax Havens: things are not always what they seem

  Samuel Delpeuch (Sciences-Po)

• Tuesday 10 September 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan, 48 Bd jourdan 75014 Paris

  SCHMUTZ Benoit (Crest,IPP,Polytechnique) : The political economy of public housing"

  Abstract

  In many European and Asian countries, public housing accounts for a large share of housing and its allocation is controlled by municipalities. Using French data, we investigate whether mayors use public housing to change the composition of their municipality and attract more favorable voters. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits close elections to identify a causal effect of electing a left- instead of a right-wing mayor on the population of housing projects. The results indicate that about six years after the initial election, before the next election, municipalities that elected a left-wing mayor have a larger share of immigrants and a lower share of retired natives in public housing. In the medium-run and long-run, the differences in composition are twice as large but also more imprecise. We also find evidence of similar but less intense changes in composition in the population in private housing but only in municipalities with a large public housing supply. In these municipalities, the election of a left-wing mayor is associated with higher incumbency advantage, but also more far-right votes in the first-round and a decline in electoral participation in municipal elections.

• Tuesday 3 September 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  TRICAUD Clémence (Ecole Polytechnique) : Better alone? Evidence on the costs of intermunicipal cooperation

  Abstract

  While central governments encourage intermunicipal cooperation to achieve economies of scale, municipalities are generally reluctant to integrate. This paper provides new evidence on the costs of integration by assessing the causal impact of integration on municipalities resisting cooperation. Exploiting a 2010 reform in France that forced non-integrated municipalities to enter an intermunicipal community, I show that the loss of autonomy over urban planning plays a key role in explaining their opposition. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I find that municipalities forced to integrate experienced a 12.2 percent increase in the number of building permits delivered. Additional results suggest that municipalities were resisting further urban development to avoid congestion rather than to exclude minorities or prevent housing prices to fall. Exploring the impact of integration on fiscal revenues and public services, I find that, while congestion costs appear key in understanding urban municipalities’ resistance, rural municipalities’ opposition seems mainly driven by the loss of access to local public services. Overall, these results shed new light on the tension between the potential aggregate benefits sought by governments and local negative externalities driving municipalities’ opposition.

• Tuesday 2 July 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  NERI Lorenzo (Queen Mary University) : The Unintended Consequences of Housing Regeneration Projects

  Abstract

  The demolition of public housing estates is often seen as a way to deal with the shortage of houses. In London, many public estates have been demolished between 2002 and 2015 to pave the way for new developments with higher housing density, leading to the creation of 30,000 new houses. I have constructed a novel database with all demolitions in the Greater London area using administrative records from the London Development Database. A difference in difference analysis reveals that the demolition of an estate affects the surrounding neighborhood in terms of economic development, house prices and local businesses. I will study how these effects spill over to the preference of parents for local schools, and whether there are broader social costs of demolitions for communities and children in particular.

• Tuesday 25 June 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MARTÍNEZ-TOLEDANO Clara (Imperial College London) : Housing Bubbles, Wealth Inequality and Capital Income Taxation

  Abstract

  This paper combines different sources (tax records, national accounts, wealth surveys) to construct wealth distribution series for Spain since the mid-eighties until the present. The wealth inequality series and a new asset-specific accumulation decomposition are then used to analyze how housing booms and busts shape the wealth distribution. Wealth concentration dropped in Spain since the eighties until the end of the housing boom of the 2000s and it increased afterwards during the years of the housing bust. My findings suggest that differences in rates of return and capital gains drive wealth inequality dynamics during housing booms and busts, but saving rates only play a role during busts. Rich individuals diversify their portfolio during the housing bust substituting housing for financial assets, contributing to revert the decreasing trend in wealth concentration of the housing boom. The importance of saving rates on financial assets was exacerbated during the bust due to a large capital income tax reform that created a wedge between the taxation of financial income (interest and dividends) and housing rents. These results provide the type of evidence needed to discipline macroeconomic theories of wealth inequality, asset price changes and capital income taxes.

• Tuesday 18 June 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SEIBOLD Arthur (Mannheim ) : Reference Points for Retirement Behavior: Evidence from German Pension Discontinuities

  Abstract

  This paper documents and analyzes an important and puzzling stylized fact about retirement behavior: the large concentration of job exits at specific ages. In Germany, almost 30% of workers retire precisely in the month when they reach one of three statutory retirement ages, although there is often no incentive or even a disincentive to retire at these thresholds. To study what can explain the concentration of retirements around statutory ages, I use novel administrative data covering the universe of German retirees, and I take advantage of unique variation in financial retirement incentives as well as statutory ages across individuals in the German pension system. Measuring retirement bunching responses to 644 different discontinuities in pension benefit profiles, I first document that financial incentives alone fail to explain retirement patterns in the data. Second, I show that there is a direct effect of "presenting" a threshold as a statutory retirement age, which is substantially larger than that of financial incentives. Further evidence on mechanisms suggests the framing of statutory ages as reference points for retirement as a potential explanation. A number of alternative channels including firm responses are also discussed but they do not seem to drive the results. Finally, a model of retirement with reference points is employed to interpret the observed patterns. Counterfactual simulations highlight that shifting statutory ages via pension reforms can be an effective policy to increase actual retirement ages with a positive fiscal impact.

• Tuesday 11 June 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BATUT Cyprien (Paris School of Economics) : Local economic impact of refugee arrival: evidence from France

  Sarah Schneider

• Tuesday 4 June 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GEEROLF François (UCLA) : Reassessing Dynamic Efficiency

  Abstract

  Since Abel et al. (1989), it is generally assumed that the net marginal product of capital is higher than the growth rate, a situation called “dynamic efficiency”, where increasing aggregate saving is beneficial in the long run. In this paper, I revisit this question methodologically and empirically, leveraging the availability of new and better data. I contrast marginal and average returns, accumulation and valuation effects, finite and infinitely-lived assets, realized and expected returns, the returns to produced assets and other components of capital income (land and monopoly rents). My preferred estimate is that the net marginal product of capital is everywhere lower than the growth rate. Under neoclassical assumptions, the capital stock and investment are too high, and lower aggregate saving crowds out excess capital accumulation. If aggregate investment is not interest elastic as in early Keynesian growth models, consistently with most microeconomic evidence, then excess saving leads to persistently low output (“secular stagnation”) instead of excess capital accumulation; and lower aggregate saving boosts output permanently.

• Tuesday 28 May 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PASINI Elisabetta (Queen Mary University) : Migration and competition for schools: evidence from primary education in England

  Abstract

  This is the most updated abstract: The paper investigates the impact of immigration on the school system in England. I exploit the post-2004 inflow of migrants from A8 countries to investigate the impact on natives’ allocation in primary schools. In particular, because of their faith, the rapid increase in Polish-born residents has increased competition for Catholic schools, which are on average better performing and oversubscribed. This quasi-experimental setting enables me to estimate the impact of a school demand shock on natives’ allocation. I deal with the endogenous sorting of Polish migrants by adopting a novel version of the shift-share instrument. The results suggest that the presence of non-natives lowers the probability of natives attending Catholic schools. I observe that natives resident in areas characterized by larger inflows of Polish migrants, if displaced, substitute Catholic with equally good performing non-faith schools. Moreover, a further investigation on natives’ allocation reveals that parents are more willing to sacrifice peer composition of the school rather than distance. Finally, I look at natives’ performance three years after the enrollment date and find no evidence of negative impact on test scores, thus suggesting that changes in allocation do not have detrimental effects on natives.

• Tuesday 21 May 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CAGE Julia (Sciences Po) : It Takes Money to Make MPs: New Evidence from 150 Years of British Campaign Spending

  Edgard Dewitte (Sciences Po Paris)

  Abstract

  What is the price of a vote and how did it evolve over time? In this paper, we study the impact of campaign spending on electoral results in the United Kingdom over the last 150 years, a period that covers the emergence of different campaigning technologies. We build a new exhaustive dataset on campaign spending and votes since 1857, including not only detailed election expenses for 62,248 election-constituency-candidates, but also extensive candidates’ characteristics as well as constituency-level controls. Beyond this important data collection effort, our contribution to the literature is threefold. First, we propose two new instruments based on historical events to estimate the causal impact of spending on votes. Second, we investigate whether the introduction of new campaigning technologies has affected the relationship between spending and votes. Finally, we exploit the multiparty nature of the U.K. electoral data and examine whether the efficiency of campaign spending varies depending on the political parties. We show that there is a positive effect of spending on votes, and that this effect is becoming stronger over time, reflecting an higher efficiency of new campaigning technologies. Furthermore, we document that while historically, campaign expenditures were relatively less efficient for the UK Independence Party, there is a convergence over time. This may reflect a decrease in the stigma associated with the UKIP vote, and help to improve our understanding of the determinants of the rise of right-wing populism.

• Tuesday 14 May 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  VALSECCHI Michele (New Economic School ) : To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Elections

  Abstract

  Do economic sanctions weaken the support for incumbent governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia after 2014 and estimate their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. For identification, we use cross-regional variation in (pre-determined) trade exposure to sanctioning and non-sanctioning countries and before-after voting data at both regional and district level. The sanctions caused an increase in support for the incumbent. This result is robust to alternative measures of sanction exposure, including a measure of trade loss, i.e., the difference between observed trade flows and counter-factual trade flows computed via a full-general-equilibrium gravity model. Absence of pre-trends, as well as several placebo estimations, supports the validity of the identification assumption. We then explore several potential mechanisms, including propaganda, electoral fraud as well as standard demand-supply effects. Overall, while it is hard to evaluate all the potential motives that sanctioning countries might have had, our results suggest that economic sanctions are not an effective tool for reaching one of their primary goals and can actually backfire.

• Tuesday 7 May 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MALGOUYRES Clement (CREST) : Incidence and Behavioral Responses to Changes in Local Business Taxation: Lessons from a Large Reform in France

  Clément Carbonnier, Antonin Bergeaud, Edouard Jousselin

• Tuesday 30 April 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  UNGARO Stefano : The Real Effects of the 1930-1931 Banking Crisis in France

• Tuesday 23 April 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MATRAY Adrien (Princeton University) : Higher Dividend Taxes, No Problem? Evidence From France

  Charles Boissel

  Abstract

  We exploit one of the largest reform of dividend taxation in France in 2012 to estimate the effect of an increase in dividend tax rate on corporate policies, using administrative data covering the universe of firms and employees. In a difference-in-difference setting, we find that exposed firms swiftly cut dividend payments, both at the extensive and intensive margin, with an implied elasticity of -0.6. We find that treated firms build up considerable amount of cash reserves after reducing their dividend payment but do not change their investment policies. We report a precisely estimated null effect of dividend taxes on investment rate, with an implied elasticity around 0.04.

• Tuesday 16 April 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ROVNY Jan (Sciences Po) : Circumstantial Liberals: Ethnic Minorities and Political Competition

  Abstract

  Ethnic minorities make contemporary Europe increasingly diverse. The prevailing wisdom in research on ethnic politics is that ethnicity is a trouble-maker disrupting programmatic universal politics – it tends to prioritize group identity over ideology, polity or policy, principle over compromise. In short, ethnicity is expected to be a source of particularistic tension. This project takes a theoretical step back. Approaching ethnic politics as a component of normal politics, it investigates the ideological potential of ethnicity, and examines the conditions that determine the formation of diverse preferences and behavior among ethnic groups and their representatives. The project seeks to answer central questions: What are the political preferences of ethnic minority groups and their representatives? Under what circumstances do ethnic minority groups and representatives prefer to cooperate with the majority, and under what circumstances is this preference undermined? The project proceeds from the expectation that ethnic minorities seek group preservation. It hypothesizes that the search for group preservation may induce ethnic minorities to champion rights and liberties, translating into broader ideological preferences and political behavior. Simultaneously, conditional factors cross-pressure the search for rights and liberties, potentially leading ethnic groups and members towards exclusionary extremism instead. The identification of these conditions is of central theoretical importance, as well as of practical use. The project combines the study of ethnic politics with research on electoral behavior and party competition, while studying both minorities in eastern Europe comparison with dominant majorities. The project collects novel data sources, which it analyses using mixed quantitative and qualitative methods. It is divided into two parts, one focusing on large-N quantitative comparative analyses, and one carrying out three in depth case studies.

• Tuesday 9 April 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE) : Diffusion of Gender Norms: Evidence from Stalin's Ethnic Deportations

  Alain Blum (EHESS), Alexandra Jarotschkin (World Bank)

• Tuesday 2 April 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  NOLAN Brian (Oxford) : Inequality and Real Income Growth in Rich Countries

• Tuesday 26 March 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  TURATI Riccardo (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona) : SKILL OF THE IMMIGRANTS AND VOTE OF THE NATIVES: IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALISM IN EUROPEAN ELECTIONS 2007-2016

  Simone Moriconi, Giovanni Peri

  Abstract

  In this paper we document the impact of immigration at the regional level on Europeans’ political preferences as expressed by voting behavior in parliamentary or presidential elections between 2007 and 2016. We combine individual data on party voting with a classification of each party's political agenda on a scale of their "nationalistic" attitudes over 28 elections across 126 parties in 12 countries. To reduce immigrant selection and omitted variable bias, we use immigrant settlements in 2005 and the skill composition of recent immigrant flows as instruments. OLS and IV estimates show that larger inflows of highly educated immigrants were associated with a change in the vote of citizens away from nationalism. However the inflow of less educated immigrants was positively associated with a vote shift towards nationalist positions. These effects were stronger for non-tertiary educated voters and in response to non-European immigrants. We also show that they are consistent with the impact of immigration on individual political preferences, which we estimate using longitudinal data, and on opinions about immigrants. Conversely, immigration did not affect electoral turnout. Simulations based on the estimated coefficients show that immigration policies balancing the number of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants from outside the EU would be associated with a shift in votes away from nationalist parties in almost all European regions.

• Tuesday 19 March 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MACOURS Karen (PSE & CEPR) : Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years

  Caridad Araujo

  Abstract

  In 1997 the Mexican government designed the conditional cash transfer program Progresa, which became the worldwide model of a new approach to social programs, simultaneously targeting human capital accumulation and poverty reduction. Since then, a large literature has documented the short and medium-term impacts of the Mexican program and its successors in other countries. Using Progresa’s experimental evaluation design originally rolled out in 1997-2000, and a tracking survey conducted 20 years later, this paper studies the differential long-term impacts of exposure to Progresa at critical moments in childhood. To do so, we focus on two cohorts of children: i) those that during the period of differential exposure were in-utero or in the early years of life, and ii) those who during the period of differential exposure were transitioning from primary to secondary school. Results for the older cohort, in their early 30s at endline, show that the short-term impacts of differential exposure to Progresa on schooling are sustained in the long-run and manifest themselves in larger labor incomes, more international migration, and delayed fertility. The younger cohort, 17-20 shows similar differential impacts to those of the older cohort on schooling and a positive effect of differential exposure to Progresa on labor income expectations, pointing to the importance of exposure in very early childhood.

• Tuesday 12 March 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PITON Sophie (PSE) : Revisiting the Global Decline of the Labor Share

  Germán Gutiérrez (NYU Stern)

  Abstract

  We study the evolution of labor shares in the United States and Europe since 1950. Contrary to common wisdom, we show that the non-housing gross labor share remained stable in Europe, and declined only in the US. The divergence with prior research is due to the treatment of Residential Real Estate in sector accounts. While US accounts exclude all housing income from the nonfinancial corporate sector, European accounts include some rental activities. In fact, 19% of the capital stock of EU nonfinancial corporations are dwellings. The inclusion of housing income substantially biases the corporate labor share. Controlling for these differences, the labor share has remained stable in Europe and declined only in the US.

• Tuesday 5 March 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MEHMOOD Sultan : The Dictator, the Imam and the Judge: Tracing the impact of religion on the courts

  Abstract

  How does religion impact the courts? In this paper, we document a substantial impact of religious leaders on judicial decision making in Pakistan. Utilizing a unique dataset on the holy Muslims shrines across Pakistan, we show that districts where historically the shrine density was high, a military coup in 1999 induced a large decline in judicial independence and quality of judicial decisions. We present evidence consistent with the mechanism that increased political power of religious leaders allowed them to influence the courts. The analysis of the type of cases driving the results show that more favourable rulings for the government in land expropriation and human rights cases explain these results. We also show a judicial selection reform that changed the appointment procedure to select judges from presidential appointment to selection by a judicial commission consisting of peer judges mitigates the effect of historical shrine density on judicial outcomes.

• Tuesday 26 February 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SCHWAB Jakob (German Development Institute ) : Accounting for Intergenerational Social Mobility in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

  Fabian Könings

• Tuesday 19 February 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  *

• Tuesday 19 February 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  *

• Tuesday 19 February 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  KSEBI Ilham : Measuring Unemployment by means of Official Data and Administrative Records: Empirical and Theoretical Perspectives

  Abstract

  This paper addresses the measurement of unemployment in the Italian regional context. Specifically, retrieving data from Tuscany, we compare the picture of unemployment that emerges by exploring official data and administrative records over the period after the burst of the Great Recession. Consistently with previous findings, we find that registered unemployment is higher, more persistent and more concentrated on women than its official measure. However, despite those heterogeneities, we show that the cyclical behaviour of registered job seekers is similar to the one of official job seekers. Moreover, we provide a way to reconcile the two measures of unemployment. Thereafter, we develop a model that provides a rationale for the coexistence of official and registered job seekers and we explore how it reacts to productivity shocks and its policy implications. Finally, we offer some insights about the desirability of an integrated use of those data.

• Tuesday 12 February 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CASSAN Guilhem (University of Namur) : Voting Power and the Supply of News Media: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from India

  Julia Cagé (Sciences-Po), Francesca Jensenius (Oslo)

  Abstract

  In this paper, we investigate how media owners react to changes in the political importance of vote choices - voting power - in different areas. Whereas "one person, one vote" is often considered the guiding principle of democracies, there is in fact great variation across the democratic world in the extent to which votes matter at all, the extent to which they translate directly into seats or affect elections in a more indirect manner (such as through electoral colleges), and the weight given to one vote compared to another (e.g., votes in densely populated areas counting for less). As the voting power of an area increases, influencing the political behavior of the electorate also becomes increasingly important for actors seeking political influence. As a result, controlling the quantity and bias of the news media that voters are exposed to becomes a serious challenge. One may therefore expect changes in the voting power of an area to be associated with an increase in the supply of news media. To tackle this question, we analyze how the Indian newspaper market reacted to changes in the voting power of diff erent areas, by investigating changes in the number of newspapers, the circulation of these newspapers (both on average and aggregated), as well as the identify and nature of the owners.

• Tuesday 5 February 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PRESIDENTE Giorgio : The Redistributive Role of Automation

• Tuesday 29 January 2019 12:30-13:30

  salle R2-01, campus Jourdan - 48 bd Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SEROR Marlon (University of Bristol) : Industrial clusters in the long run: Evidence from Million-Rouble plants in China

  Abstract

  This paper exploits the short-lived economic and scientific cooperation between the U.S.S.R. and China, which led to the construction of 156 "Million-Rouble plants" between 1953 and 1958. We isolate exogenous variation in location decisions due to the relative position of allied and enemy airbases and study the long-run impact of these factories on the spatial distribution of economic activity. While the "156" program accelerated structural transformation in treated counties until the end of the command-economy era, this significant advantage eroded in the subsequent period. We explore the nature of the local spillovers responsible for this pattern, and provide evidence about the following externalities: over-specialization, human capital accumulation and competition for skills, and changes in the supply of entrepreneurs.

• Tuesday 22 January 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  FERNANDEZ-SANCHEZ Martin (PSE) : Mass Migration and Education over a Century: Evidence from the Galician Diaspora

  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the impact of mass migration on human capital accumulation at origin over a century. I examine one of the largest migration episodes in the XX century, the Galician diaspora in Latin America. Using data from different historical sources I build a unique database of all Galician villages from 1860 to today with information on migration, literacy rates, migrants' associations and their investments at origin. To infer causality I exploit the fact that the distance to a few ports was a key determinant of migration intensity, especially in times of good economic conditions at destination. The results show that in the short run, migration significantly increased literacy rates due to the selection of illiterate into migration and an increase in the stock of literate. In the long run, migration led to more schools per capita, higher enrolment rates and higher schooling levels. These findings are largely explained by migrants associations financing the construction of schools, by the return of educated migrants, and by a change in perceptions about the value of education.

• Tuesday 15 January 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BARRERA Oscar : Voting for war. The effect of electoral outcomes on conflict, evidence from Colombia

  Abstract

  The Colombian conflict experienced a dramatic intensification after 2002 when the national government implemented the Democratic Security policy spearheaded by the Colombian’s Conservative leader Alvaro Uribe. This study examines the direct effects of putting into practice the Democratic Security policy on local violence towards civilians. A regression discontinuity approach shows that the number of civilian victims by Guerrilla bands increases substantially after close elections in municipalities where mayors sharing the DS policy won, whereas no effect of the civilian victims by other bands or official forces was observed. Empirical evidence suggests that the violence reflects either an anticipation strategy followed by the Guerrilla or a manipulation of the scores by the local offices.

• Tuesday 8 January 2019 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BLANCHET Thomas : Divided Behind and Beyond Borders? Income inequality in Europe, 1980-2017

  Lucas Chancel, Amory Gethin

  Abstract

  This paper estimates the evolution of income inequality in 38 European countries from 1980 to 2017 by combining surveys, tax data and national accounts in a systematic manner. We develop a harmonized methodology (based on machine-learning, nonlinear survey calibration and extreme value theory) in order to produce homogeneous pre-tax and post-tax income inequality estimates, comparable across countries and coherent with official national income growth rates. Our findings reveal that income inequalities within European countries increased significantly, while inequalities between countries remained broadly stable over the period. As a result, income disparities in Europe as a whole increased significantly: over the period, bottom 50% earners saw their incomes grow four times slower than the top 0.001%. Income gaps are however substantially wider and have increased much more rapidly in the United States than in the old continent. In 1980, Europe and the US shared similar levels of inequality; in 2017, by contrast, the share of national income accruing to top 1% earners was two times higher in the US. Our findings also stress the need for more transparency on inequality statistics in Europe and continued efforts towards the production, dissemination and analysis of distributional measures of economic growth.

• Tuesday 18 December 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LE PENNEC Caroline (HEC Montréal) : Electoral competition, campaign messages and commitment: Evidence from French Legislative Elections (1958-1993)

  Abstract

  Do politicians strategically adjust their campaign messages under electoral competition and do these messages matter? In this paper we assess the extent to which politicians' discourse responds to natural variation in the set of competitors they face in two-round elections. We exploit a unique dataset of about 30,000 manifestos circulated by candidates to the French legislative elections before each election round between 1958 and 1993. Using computational text analysis methods to scale these manifestos on a left-to-right axis, we show that candidates who make it to the runoff tend to become more neutral and similar to each other in the second round. This is particularly true among candidates who were more extreme in the first round but less so among incumbent and elected candidates. We further explore several dimensions along which the content of manifestos changes between election rounds and find that candidates tend to drop policy platform elements, add mentions of local places in their district and use words related to communal moral values relatively more often than words related to universal ones. We next collect the written questions to the government issued by elected representatives to voice their voters' concerns on specific topics or policies. We use various approaches to compare manifestos to questions' content and find weak to zero correlation between the two, suggesting that neither campaign messages nor their adjustment under electoral competition are binding once politicians are elected.

• Tuesday 11 December 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  YANG Li (ZEW Mannheim and WIL) : Robin Hood or Crony Capitalism? Income inequality trend in Malaysia (1984-2014) under long standing affirmative action program

  Abdul Khalid Muhammed

  Abstract

  By combining national account, fiscal data, surveys, and demographic statistics, in this paper we build the first Distribution National Accounts (DINA) for Malaysia for the period of 2002-2014. Under the DINA framework, we systemically analysis the impact of long-lasting affirmative policies in Malaysia on inequality trend among and within different ethnic groups, e.g. Bumiputera, Chinese, and Indians. Our findings show that while the affirmative policies significant increase the income of the Bumiputera in the bottom (e.g. In the bottom 50%) from 2002 to 2014 , it is the Bumiputera on the top (e.g. In the top 1%) who benefit the most from the policies.

• Tuesday 4 December 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  POULHES Mathilde (Sciences Po) : Increasing Housing Transfer Taxes: Buy Now or Foot the Bill Later

  Abstract

  This paper estimates the impact of the rise of housing transfer tax in France. It exploits both time and geographical discontinuities in the implementation of the 2014 reform that allowed local authorities to raise housing transfer tax. On the short term, we provide evidence that buyers anticipate the reform to avoid the additional tax burden. We find some evidence of a long-term negative effect of the tax increase on the number of transactions, only in markets where supply is high relative to demand. Finally, we find no effect on pre-tax sales prices, meaning that the burden of the transfer tax rests on the buyer. Our findings highlight the strong inelasticity of the French housing market and suggest the existence of price frictions potentially due to loss aversion.

• Tuesday 27 November 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LEBRIS David (TSE) : Testing the Tax-Loss Selling Explanation of the January Effect: Evidence from a 'Confiscatory' Tax Implemented in France in 1921

  Abstract

  For almost a century, we document a significant January effect on the French equity market. We find strong evidences in favor of the tax-loss selling explanation for this phenomenon. Indeed, the January effect was insignificant before the introduction of a “confiscatory tax” on capital gains in 1921, and became strongly significant afterward. Moreover, the rate of taxation is statistically significant to explain the strength of the January effect over time. Studying individual stock returns, a DiffInDiff investigation shows that past losers, outperform past winners at the turn of the year but only after 1921, which reinforces further the tax-loss selling explanation of the January effect.

• Tuesday 20 November 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  DELATTE Anne Laure (CNRS, University Paris Dauphine) : Private Credit Under Political Influence. Evidence from France.

  Adrien Matray (Princeton), Noémie Pinardon-Touati (HEC)

• Tuesday 13 November 2018 12:30-13:30

  R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  POTTIER Antonin (CERNA - PSL) : Integrated assessment of climate and population change: A first evaluation

  Abstract

  We develop an integrated assessment model with endogenous population dynamics accounting for the impact of global climate change on mortality. An age-dependent endogenous mortality rate, which depends linearly on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three scenarios (a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, a 3 ?C scenario and a 2 ?C scenario) and find that climate-induced deaths per annum range from 160,000 (in the near term) to more than 300,000 (at the end of the century). We examine the number of life-years lost because of climate change in a given year and find figures ranging from 5 to 13 millions annually. Interestingly, the number of life-years lost is constant (BAU) or decreasing (3 ?C and 2 ?C scenarios) through time due to changes in the age-composition of future population. Using standard levels of the value of a statistical life, we can estimate that climate change-induced mortality is equivalent to a monetary loss between 0.2% and 0.5% of world GDP each year.

• Tuesday 6 November 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ESTEVEZ BAULUZ Luis : From Manufacturing to Services: The impact of Structural Change on the value of Housing

  Abstract

  This paper connects the striking rise of national housing-to-national income ratios experienced by rich countries over the last decades decades with the transformation of the productive system: from manufacturing to services. It explores two factors: the increase in countries’ spatial concentration of economic activity and the negative shocks to manufacturing-specialized regions. To explore the first factor, I present new series of housing wealth and of spatial concentration of economic activity in seven developed economies: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, UK and USA. Results show that rising housing wealth is the consequence of higher urban land values, with this increase being tightly connected with larger concentration of market-oriented services. The second factor is investigated using urban-level data in England and Wales, thus analyzing how macro trends in house-income ratios emerge from the local level. I find that rising national values are largely the result of higher dispersion of local house prices, but not of incomes per capita. The best predictor of how house prices changed is the city-level specialization of the productive system. I estimate that one quarter of the dispersion in local house prices is explained by manufacturing output declining at the national level. A simple theoretical model is used to rationalize these two factors.

• Tuesday 30 October 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SICSIC Michaël : The elasticity of labor income: evidence from French tax and benefit reforms, 2006-2015

  Abstract

  I provide estimates of the elasticity of labor income with respect to the marginal net-of-tax rate (MNTR) on the 2006-2015 period for France. I follow the methodology of the ETI literature using panel data, with several contributions. I exploit not only income tax reforms but also means-tested benefits reforms in order to compare these elasticities. Over the 2006–2015 period covered, the reforms went to different directions (leading to up and downs of MNTR) and some reforms affected MNTR differently for individuals with the same level of income depending on family configuration, which provide good source identification. This variety of reforms enables me to estimate different elasticities for different types of people. I focus on the individual response of labor income but I also compute cross elasticities of other income of the household (spouse labor income and capital income). Finally, I also test various ways to deal with means reversion, heterogeneous income trend, and endogeneity of MNTR, and add lots of controls since the data used provides a great variety of socio-demographic covariates. Estimation yields compensated elasticities of approximately 0.1 for all reforms, 0.2 for income tax reforms, 0.1 for in-work reforms (RSA activité), and not significant for other means-tested benefits (family allowance). This can be explained by the fact that income tax reforms are more salient than benefit reforms. Other results include the fact that the elasticities are higher for the top decile, for single people, and for people between 20 and 30 years old. Moreover, cross elasticities are negative, which is consistent with income shifting.

• Tuesday 23 October 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SEGAL Paul (KCL ) : Inequality as Entitlements over Labour

  Abstract

  The study of economic inequality is fundamentally concerned with differing entitlements over goods and services. Economists of inequality have neglected a different aspect of economic inequality discussed by social commentators at least since Rousseau: that it also implies that one person is entitled to command the labour of another person for their own consumption purposes. I call this inequality as entitlements over labour. I propose a measure called the service ratio, which calculates the extent to which the rich can afford to buy the labour of their compatriots. Unlike standard measures of economic inequality the service ratio is not welfarist, but instead has its normative basis in the economic relations between people. I estimate service ratios in a selection of countries over time, and illustrate the relationship between this measure and standard measures of inequality. Beyond its normative interpretation, I argue that inequality as entitlements over labour is salient in two dimensions. First, it is sociologically salient because the ability to employ domestic service is essential to conceptions of upper middle class lifestyles. Relatedly, it has also underpinned rising female labour market participation. Second, it is politically salient because the extent of domination through command over labour is a zero-sum game between the rich and the non-rich.

• Tuesday 16 October 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  VISKANIC Max (Sciences Po) : Dismantling the Jungle: Migrant Relocation and Extreme Voting in France

  Abstract

  Can a small scale inflow of migrants a.ect electoral outcomes? We study whether the relocation of migrants from the Calais "Jungle" to temporary migrant-centers (CAOs) in France a.ected the results of the 2017 presidential election. Using an instrumental variables approach that relies on the size of holiday villages present in municipalities, we .find that in the presence of a CAO, the percentage growth rate of vote shares for the main far-right party (Front National) between 2012 and 2017 is reduced by about 15.7 percentage points. Given that the FN vote share increased by 20% on average between 2012 and 2017 in French municipalities, this estimation suggests that the growth rate of FN vote in municipalities with a CAO was only 25% the one of municipalities without a CAO (which corresponds to an increase lower by 4 percentage points). These e.ffects, which dissipate spatially and depend on city characteristics and on the size of the inflow, point towards the contact hypothesis (Allport (1954))

• Tuesday 9 October 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MURARD ELIE (IZA) : Immigration and Attitudes toward Redistribution in Europe

  Alberto Alesina, Hillel Rapoport

  Abstract

  We examine the relationship between immigration and attitudes to redistribution by assembling a new dataset of immigrant stocks at the regional level in 140 regions of 16 Western European countries. We combine census and population register records with attitudinal data from the biannual 2002-2016 rounds of the European Social Survey. We find that center and rightwing natives display lower support for redistribution when the share of immigrants in their region of residence is higher. This holds particularly in regions of countries with relatively large Welfare-States. This negative relationship between immigration and support for redistribution is robust to the inclusion of a rich set of regional and individual controls, as well as to using alternative measures of preferences for redistribution. All these effects are stronger for immigration originating from non-European countries.

• Tuesday 2 October 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GOUPILLE-LEBRET Jonathan (ENS LYON) : Inequality and Redistribution in France

  Antoine Bozio, Bertrand Garbinti, Malka Guillot et Thomas Piketty.

• Tuesday 25 September 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LIPPMANN Quentin : Gender and Lawmaking in Times of Quotas. Evidence from the French Parliament

  *

  Abstract

  This article investigates whether female legislators defend the interests of women more than their male counterparts. I collected data from more than 300,000 amendments discussed in the French Parliament during the 2001-2017 period and combine quasi-experimental variations with text analysis. First, I exploit mixed-gender close races in the Lower House to show that female legislators are twice more likely to initiate and to co-sponsor gender-related amendments. Second, as compared to other topics, I establish that gender issues constitute the key topic on which women are more active relatively to men, followed by health and child issues. At the other end of the spectrum, men are more involved in war issues. Third, I investigate the mechanisms and provide evidence that the activity of female legislators cannot be entirely explained by constituencies' demographics or political parties' strategies but stems from individual preferences of parliamentarians. Fourth, I replicate these findings in the Upper House using a difference-in-differences strategy that directly exploits the introduction of a gender quota. I obtain similar results.

• Tuesday 18 September 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  YAKOVLEV Evgeny (NES ) : Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Sizable Conditional Child Subsidy

  Ilia Sorvachev

  Abstract

  The paper documents the strong effect of sizable child subsidy on fertility. The effect is significant in the short run and facilitates in the long run. To identify the causal effect of the subsidy in the short run, we apply Regression Discontinuity strategy within a short time interval near child subsidy's adoption. The long-run effect is documented using various Dif-in-Dif estimates, where we 1) compare fertility across Russian regions that implemented different regional child subsidies; 2) compare Russia with Eastern European countries that showed similar pre-reform trends in fertility. The subsidy is conditional and can be used mainly to buy apartments (houses). We find that fertility grew faster in regions with a shortage of housing, with a higher ratio of subsidy to price of apartments, as well as in poorer regions. At the individual level, in regions outside Moscow, the subsidy affects the fertility decisions of families with higher (relative to the regional average) level of income and higher education more. Finally, we find that the subsidy has substantial general equilibrium effect. It affected family stability. It results in the decrease of the share of single mothers, and in higher marriage rates. It also affected the housing market. We find that housing prices and the supply of new houses increased significantly as a result of the reform

• Tuesday 11 September 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  FRYER Roland G. (Harvard University) : Understanding Intergenerational Mobility. A Machine Learning Approach.

• Tuesday 4 September 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  COULOMB Renaud (University of Melbourne) : Political Connections and White-collar Crime: Evidence from Insider Trading in France

  Marc Sangnier, Thomas Bourveau

  Abstract

  This paper investigates whether political connections affect individuals’ propensity to engage in illegal activities in financial markets. We use the 2007 French presidential election as marker of change in the value of political connections, in a difference-indifferences research design. We examine the behavior of directors of publicly listed companies who are connected to the future president through campaign donations or direct friendships, relative to that of other non-connected directors, before and after the election. We uncover indirect evidence that connected directors do more illegal insider trading after the election. More precisely, we find that purchases by connected directors trigger larger abnormal returns, and that connected directors are more likely not to comply with trading disclosure requirements and to trade closer to major corporate events.

• Wednesday 15 August 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  *

• Wednesday 8 August 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  *

• Tuesday 3 July 2018 12:30-13:30

  R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MACOURS Karen (PSE & CEPR) : Young Women’s Labor Market and Fertility Outcomes 10 years after a CCT

  Tania Barham, John Maluccio

  Abstract

  Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are some of the most popular policy instruments to increase investment in nutrition, health, and education in developing countries. The principal motivation underlying CCTs has implicitly and often explicitly been that investment in human capital will help improve the lives of the poor in the longer term, with the expectation that it can lead to higher income generating potential in adulthood for beneficiary children. Whether and how such potential materializes remains an open question. For girls of school-going ages, CCT do not only provided incentives and means to stay in school longer, but also may affect fertility outcomes through improved nutrition (with implications for the onset of puberty). Understanding the later mechanism is important, as young women’s decisions regarding economic and reproductive activities tend to be closely intertwined. This paper exploits an experimental design and a 10-year tracking survey for a CCT program in Nicaragua that introduced random variation in the age of exposure that allows isolating the fertility mechanism. For a cohort of 9 to 12 year old girls, the variation in age of exposure does not lead to differences in educational outcomes, but leads to differential impacts on fertility, and subsequent long-term labor market outcomes and income. While the differential impacts are modest, they suggest that health and nutrition components of CCT programs are important to account for when analyzing long-term impacts on labor market outcomes.

• Tuesday 26 June 2018 12:30-13:30

  R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ZHU Junyi (Bundesbank) : Love and money with inheritance: marital sorting by labor income and inherited wealth in the modern partnership

  PASTEAU Etienne (PSE)

  Abstract

  As the importance of capital is resurging in rich countries, the dynamics of wealth inequality are being increasingly affected by inheritance distribution. The relative attraction derived from inherited wealth and acquired human capital in marital choices may be undergoing change. We expand the traditional dimension of assortative mating through only labor income to cover both labor income and inheritance. This paper studies the concentration and substitutability of these two traits in forming partnerships using data for Germany from the Panel on Household Finances (PHF). Relative to France, Germany’s aristocratic wealth has experienced more negative shocks since WWII, social stratification is perceived as less acute, and half of the country went through decades of communism. However, our results come quantitatively close to the distributional outcomes seen in France. By assuming a sequential revelation of inheritance and labor income in marital sorting, we develop a stylized multidimensional matching model which adequately replicates the sorting pattern observed using marginal distributions of these two traits from either gender. Our estimate suggests inheritance is about two and a half times more important than labor income in explaining marriage choice. This quantitative result seems to characterize the expected lifetime inheritance and labor income after marriage for Germany under the actual rate of return, growth rate, demographics as well as rapid expansion of bequest flows in recent history.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 19 June 2018 12:30-13:30

  R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SOTURA Aurélie (BdF) : Spatial disparities - France - 1960-2014

  BONNET Celine (Toulouse School of Economics, INRAE)

  Abstract

  This study explores the evolution of spatial inequality in France from 1960 to 2014. It builds on works by Combes & al. (2011) and Roses & al. ( 2016) and shed new light on living standards convergence by using a new and unique database on income distribution of each French \textit{départements} since 1960. We have constructed this database using 4500 fiscal tabulations collected in the archives of the French Ministry of Finance, a new demographic database by Bonnet (2018), and income distribution for France computed by Garbinti $\&$ al. (2018). First we show that total income inequality in France comes mostly from within \textit{départements} inequality and that between \textit{départements} income inequality has strongly decreased during the 20th century. Second, while value added per capita inequality, after following an inverted U-shaped relationship from the middle of the 19th century since the 80's, has considerably increased in the last decades, income inequality has decreased then stabilized. We argue that value added per capita inequality in the last decades has increased because value added has concentrated. This, we suspect, stems from agglomeration economies and skill-biased technical change in big cities. We cannot prove it with our data but we do find some evidence such as the fact that top earners have concentrated in urban \textit{départements} with big cities in the last decades. Increasing value added per capita inequality did not lead to increasing income divergence between \textit{départements} for two reasons: first, retirees relocating to non productive but attractive places have homogenized income sources over the French territory. Second, as we know from Guillot & al. (2016), net wage inequalities have decreased while labor cost inequalities have increased over the 1976-2010 period. Therefore, we believe that taxation has mitigated labor cost inequality leading to smaller spatial income inequality than value added per capita inequality.

• Tuesday 12 June 2018 12:30-13:30

  R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LARDEUX Raphael (CRED PARIS 2) : Who Understands The French Income Tax ? Bunching Where Tax Liabilities Start

  Abstract

  Lack of tax transparency may strongly impact taxpayers’ behavior. This pa- per disentangles responses to incentives from attention to taxes at the level where French income tax liabilities start. When reporting their earnings, tax filers may be confused between two potential thresholds: the true Tax Collection Threshold (TCT), a notch, and a wrong Taxation Threshold (TT), which is a kink. Using a comprehensive dataset on individual income tax returns from 2008 to 2015, I highlight significant bunching in the taxable income distribution at both thresholds. Within a model of tax misperception, I estimate that taxpayers are far from paying full attention to the income tax system, yet display strong reactions to the marginal tax rate they perceive. This framework can account for behavioral responses to a rise in the virtual marginal tax rate at the wrong threshold and may prove useful to detect policies improving attention to taxes. Contrasting hard-copy and online tax filers, the misperception model reveals a better understanding of the tax system by the latter.

• Tuesday 5 June 2018 12:30-13:30

  R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  * * : The effect of labour taxation on top earners mobility: Evidence from Europe

  Abstract

  As a geographic zone with no internal barriers to migration but substantially different levels of taxation, the European Union provides a unique laboratory to examine the effect of taxation on migration. This paper analyses the effects of top earnings tax rates on the mobility of top earners in Europe. Building a detailed micro-level dataset from the largest European labour survey, I investigate how heterogenous levels of taxation affect the migration behaviour of top income migrants and top earners mobile workers. Exploiting country-by-year variation in top marginal tax rates and differential impacts of changes in top tax rates on workers of different earnings level, I estimate macro and micro-level elasticities of migration with respect to taxation.

• Tuesday 29 May 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BACH Maria (Lausanne) : From Saving Comes Having? Disentangling the Impact of Saving on Wealth Inequality

  Abstract

  This paper investigates the channels through which saving flows impact the dynamics of wealth inequality. The analysis relies on an administrative panel that reports the assets and income of every Swedish resident at the yearly frequency. We document that the saving rate, defined as saving from labor income divided by net worth, is on average a decreasing function of net worth itself. The saving rate is also highly heterogeneous within net worth brackets. Heterogeneity across and within net worth brackets have conflicting effects on wealth inequality. As a result, saving rate heterogeneity is measured to have a strong impact on social mobility but only a weak impact on the distribution of net worth. Heterogeneity in wealth return is instead the main driver of the recent increase in top wealth shares.

• Tuesday 22 May 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PONTHIÈRE Grégory : Premature deaths, accidental bequests and fairness

  Marc Fleurbaey, Marie-Louise Leroux, Pierre Pestieau, Stephane Zuberk

  Abstract

  While little agreement exists regarding the taxation of bequests in general, there is a widely held view that accidental bequests should be subject to a confiscatory tax. We propose to reexamine the optimal taxation of accidental bequests in an economy where individuals care about what they leave to their offspring in case of premature death. We show that, whereas the conventional 100 % tax view holds under the standard utilitarian social welfare criterion, it does not hold under the ex post egalitarian criterion, which assigns a strong weight to the welfare of unlucky short-lived individuals. From an egalitarian perspective, it is optimal not to tax, but to subsidize accidental bequests. We examine the robustness of those results in a dynamic OLG model of wealth accumulation, and show that, whereas the sign of the optimal tax on accidental bequests depends on the form of the joy of giving motive, it remains true that the 100 % tax view does not hold under the ex post egalitarian criterion.

• Tuesday 15 May 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE) : Facts, Alternative Facts, and Fact Checking in Times of Post-Truth Politics

  BARRERA Oscar

  GURIEV Sergei (Science Po)

  HENRY Emeric (Penn State University)

  Abstract

  How persuasive are “alternative facts,” i.e., misleading or outright false statements by populist politicians, in convincing voters? How effective is fact checking in countervailing the alternative facts? We conduct a randomized online experiment to address these questions in the context of the 2017 French presidential election campaign. Marine Le Pen (MLP), the extreme-right candidate who reached the runoff, regularly used misleading arguments in support of her policy proposals, to which mainstream media responded with systematic fact checking. We expose randomly selected subgroups of a sample of 2480 voting-age French to quotes from MLP containing misleading information about immigration and/or to facts from official sources. We find that alternative facts are highly persuasive: voters exposed to MLP rhetoric move their policy conclusions and voting intensions toward MLP. Fact checking does nothing to undo these effects despite improving factual knowledge of voters. In contrast, without fact-checking, exposure to MLP’s quotes moves posteriors on facts toward more extreme views away from the truth. Being exposed only to official facts increases political support for MLP while moving factual knowledge toward the truth.

• Tuesday 24 April 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  FRÉMEAUX Nicolas (LEMMA, Université Paris Panthéon-Assas) : The individualisation of wealth - Evidence from France

  LETURCQ Marion (INED)

• Tuesday 17 April 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  FABRE Adrien (PSE) : French Favored Redistribution Derived From Surveys: A Political Assessment of Optimal Tax Theory

  Abstract

  An original method of estimating desired income tax rates ispresented, which is in turn usedto assess the political acceptability of the optimal tax theory. Two surveys have been conductedin 2016 to quantify French preferences for income redistribution. In the first survey, respondentspicked their preferred values for parameters which were used to determine the shapes of redistri-butions. These parameters included the proportion of winners and losers from a tax reform, andthe minimum guaranteed income. Using different algorithms,several redistributions were derivedfrom the interpolation of the median choices of each parameter (50% of winners, 10% of losersand a monthly demogrant of 800€). They resulted in transfersfrom high to low incomes of onetenth of the national disposable income. In the second survey, a majority of respondents agreed onimplementing these redistributions. These results are in line with previous literature and robustto alternative specifications. Interestingly, the averagedesired redistribution corresponds closelyto the shape of the optimal taxation derived from an utilitarian criterion. This allowed to showthat this redistribution fails to obtain a significant majority support (contrarily to others), despiteits good reception in a setting inhibiting self-interest. Finally, this study provides evidence thatFrench citizens support a more direct democratic procedureto define the income tax rates, andproposes a way to do so.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 10 April 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE) : Forced Migration and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers

  BECKER Maja (Université de Toulouse )

  IRENA Grosfled (PSE)

  NICO Voigtlaender (UCLA)

  Sascha O. Becker, Irena Grosfeld, and Nico Voigtlaender

  Abstract

  We exploit a unique historical setting to study the long-run effects of forced migration on investment in education. As a result of World War II, the Polish borders were redrawn, resulting in large-scale migration. Poles were forced to move from the Kresy territories in the East (taken over by the USSR) and were resettled mostly to the newly acquired Western Territories, from which Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that Poles with a family history of forced migration are significantly more educated today, while there were no pre-WWII differences in education. This result holds when we restrict ancestral locations to a subsample around the former Kresy border, and when including fixed effects for the destination of migrants. The historical setting also allows us to narrow the comparison to forced migrants vs. voluntary migrants. The latter arrived from Central Poland, attracted by government programs to settle the largely emptied Western Territories. We find that -- even within municipalities -- descendants of forced migrants are more educated than the descendants of voluntary migrants. This difference is not driven by the selection of either group of migrants or by pre-war differences. Instead, survey evidence suggests that forced migration led to a shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in mobile assets such as human capital. The effects persist over three generations.

• Tuesday 3 April 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GODECHOT Olivier (Sciences Po) : The Great Separation. Job Polarization in Six (and more) Countries

  With Feng Hou (Canada), Martin Hallsten (Sweden), Lasse Henriksen (Denmark), Are Hermansen (Norway), Naomi Kadoma (Japan), Max Thaning (Sweden), Nina Bandelj, Irene Boeckmann, István Boza, David Cort, Avent-Holt Dustin, Gergely Hajdu, Andrea Hense, Jiwook Jung, Aleksandra Kanjuo-Mr?ela, Joseph King, Alena Krizkova, Zoltán Lippényi, Silvia Maja Melzer, Eunmi Mun, Andrew Penner, Trond Petersen, Andreja Poje, William Rainey, Mirna Safi, Donald Tomaskovic-Devey, Zaibu Tufail

  Abstract

  Growing inequality comes also with growing separation between the top and the bottom. Analyses of social cohesion have documented this phenomenon mainly through the study of school and residential segregation. This increased separatism between majority group and minorities, or between upper classes and lower classes is therefore interpreted as a growing avoidance of deprived groups by privileged ones. However this process neglects a major sphere of social life where people spend most of their daily time: work. In this article, we study thanks to linked employer employee panel administrative database the evolution of the probability of working in the same establishment for groups defined along several socio-economic dimensions —wage, occupation, education, age, gender, migratory status— in six countries: Canada, Denmark, France, Japan, Norway, and Sweden (results from Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Slovenia, and South Korea are forthcoming). For wage fractile groups, we utilize traditional measures of exposure (and respectively of isolation) with the “drop one” rule. For other groups, whose size varies throughout the period, we propose a relative net exposure. We find that the most dramatic shift is the growing separation of the top 1% earners at work and the decline in the exposure of this group to the bottom 25% and vice versa. This trend is particularly pronounced for France, Denmark and Sweden. The growing separation at work of top and bottom earners surpasses that of migrant and non-migrant, or that of male and female workers. We don’t find a similar isolation of the bottom 25%. The latter generally increases its intertwining with mid quartiles. These results show that the assortative matching mechanisms invoked for explaining the growing job polarization between high paying and low paying firms (Card et al., 2013; Song et al., 2015) may only be present at the very top of the wage hierarchy. We explore some of the mechanisms driving this trend: it takes place much more between firms than within firms with multiple establishments. Financialization, global cities, decrease in firm and establishment size also partly account for this evolution. We then look at some of the consequences of growing separation at work on social cohesion. We find also that residential segregation is also growing, although slower than segregation at work, with top earners increasingly living in different municipalities than bottom and median earners. Work segregation and residential segregation are correlated. We show that the former contributes to the later. This renews are understanding of residential segregation which is not only due to individual reluctance to interact but also to socio-economic process structuring work and territories.

• Tuesday 27 March 2018 12:30-13:30

  R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  RAVALLION Martin (Georgetown University) : Bounds on Welfare-Consistent Global Poverty Measures

  CHEN Stéphanie (University of Chicago)

  Abstract

  New measures of global poverty are presented that take seriously the idea of relative-income comparisons but also acknowledge a deep identification problem when the latent norms defining poverty vary systematically across countries. Welfare-consistent measures are shown to be bounded below by a fixed absolute line and above by weakly-relative lines derived from a theoretical model of relative-income comparisons calibrated to data on national poverty lines. Both bounds indicate falling global poverty incidence, but more slowly for the upper bound. Either way, the developing world has a higher poverty incidence but is making more progress against poverty than the developed world.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 20 March 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PIKETTY Thomas (EHESS-PSE) : Brahmin Left vs Merchant Right. Rising Inequality and the Changing Structure of Political Conflict (Evidence from France, Britain and the US, 1948-2017)

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 13 March 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PERSAUD Alexander (University of North Carolina Asheville) : A (Paid) Passage to India:Migration and revealed willingness to pay for upper-caste status

  Abstract

  How much are upper-caste individuals willing to pay for upper-caste status? Traditional dis-crimination models view discrimination from the vantage point of a group that receives worsetreatment due to its non-economic characteristics vis-a-vis a reference group. Discriminatedgroups pay a cost in the labor market for these characteristics. However, the corollary may betrue: a privileged group may pay a fee in order to receive better, rather than equal, treatment.In the case of caste, I hypothesize that high-caste Indians abroad are willing to pay more toreturn to India and reap the labor and non-labor benefits of high-caste status. I utilize uniquedata on indentured Indians in Fiji in the late nineteenth/early twentieth centuries. This contextremoves confounding labor-market factors and cleanly identifies the gross value of upper castes.I show that the lower bound of the value of the highest castes in north India roughly 2.5 years’gross wages. Robustness using hypothesized inter-caste hierarchies lead to the same orderingand diminishing effects as caste status falls. The effects are entirely driven by men, as women’scaste status appears delinked from return migration. My results show some of the first evidencequantifying a caste’s value and speak to caste’s persistence today.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 6 March 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ELLISON Sara (MIT) : The efficiency of Race-Neutral Alternatives to Race-Based Affirmative Action: Evidence from Chicago's Exam Schools

  PATHAK Parag (MIT)

  Parag Pathak

  Abstract

  Several public K-12 and university systems have recently shifted from race-based affirmative action plans to race-neutral alternatives. This paper explores the degree to which race-neutral alternatives are effective substitutes for racial quotas using data from the Chicago Public Schools (CPS), where a race-neutral, place-based affirmative action system is used for admissions at highly competitive exam high schools. We develop a theoretical framework that motivates quantifying the efficiency cost of race-neutral policies by the extent admissions decisions are distorted more than needed to achieve a given level of diversity. According to our metric, CPS’s race-neutral system is 24% and 20% efficient as a tool for increasing minority representation at the top two exam schools, i.e. about three-fourths of the reduction in composite scores could have been avoided by explicitly considering race. Even though CPS’s system is based on socioeconomic disadvantage, it is actually less effective than racial quotas at increasing the number of low-income students. We examine several alternative race-neutral policies and find some to be more efficient than the CPS policy. What is feasible varies with the school’s surrounding neighborhood characteristics and the targeted level of minority representation. However, no race-neutral policy restores minority representation to prior levels without substantial inefficiency, implying significant efficiency costs from prohibitions on affirmative action policies that explicitly consider race.

• Tuesday 27 February 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ANGELUCCI Charles (MIT Sloan School of Management) : The Medieval Roots of Inclusive Institutions: From the Norman Conquest of England to the Great Reform Act

• Tuesday 20 February 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  VERHAGEN Annelore (Maastricht University) : Does Active Living affect school performance?

  Abstract

  This paper investigates whether stimulating physical activity in everyday life affects primary school performance. We use data from the Active Living field experiment, which aims to increase active transportation and active play among 8-12 year-olds living in low-SES areas in the Netherlands. Difference-in-differences estimations reveal that while Active Living increases time spent on physical activity during school hours, it negatively affects school performance, especially among the worst-performing students. Our results suggest that although physical exercise may be beneficial for health, stimulating active play can have negative effects on educational outcomes.

• Tuesday 13 February 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SANTINI Paolo : Do unions have egalitarian wage policies for their own employees? Evidence from exhaustive earnings data in the US

  ANDREESCU Marie (PSE)

  BRYSON Alex (University College London)

• Tuesday 6 February 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ALSTADSAETER Annette (NMBU) : Accounting for Business Income in Measuring Top Income Shares: Integrated Accrual Approach Using Individual and Firm Data from Norway

  Abstract

  Business income is important in the upper tail of the personal income distribution, but the extent to which it is captured by measures of personal income varies substantially across tax regimes. Using linked individual and firm data from Norway, we are able to attribute business income to personal owners as it accrues rather than when it is realized. This adjustment leads to an increase in top income shares, and the size of this effect varies dramatically depending on the tax regime in place. After a tax reform in 2005 that created strong incentives to retain earnings within businesses, the increase was massive: accounting for earnings retained in the corporate sector leads to more than doubling of the share of income of top 0.1% in some years. Furthermore, adjusting for retained earnings stabilizes the composition of the top income group before and after the reform. We also show that the response is driven by majority owners in closely held firms and facilitated through indirect ownership. As the result, traditional measures of top income shares become misleadingly low (even when accounting for capital gains). We speculate on the implications of our findings for levels and trends in top income shares observed in other countries. In particular, we note that the major tax reforms of the 1980s in the United States correspond to a shift toward business income being passed through to personal owners, and argue that top income shares constructed using income tax statistics before 1987 are likely to be significantly understated relative to those afterwards.

• Tuesday 30 January 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CARBONNIER Clément (U. Paris 8 Vincennes-St Denis, LED & Sciences Po, LIEPP) : Wage Incidence of Corporate Income Taxes: market equilibrium versus rent sharing

  MALGOUYRES Clement (CREST)

  PY Loriane (Banque de France & IPP)

  URVOY Camille

  Abstract

  We take advantage of the introduction of a large tax credit (Competitiveness and Employment Tax Credit - CETC) in France in 2013 to assess the wage incidence of corporate income tax. The eligibility rules of the scheme - proportional to the wagebill for individual compensations lower than 2.5 minimum wage - generate a strong discontinuity, upon which we build our identification strategies. Thanks to the match of employer and employee exhaustive admistrative databases, we are able to contrast the corporate income tax incidence on wages at individual and firm levels. The individual-data based analysis studies the deformation of the distribution of wages and hires around the notch, following bunching literature. The firm-level analysis consists in difference-in-difference between firms matched within cells defined according to their wage cumulative density function. The source of variation in treatment intensity stems from pre-reform wage differences in a tight window around the threshold. We show that there exists a discrepancy between the absence of bunching at the individual level and the substantial incidence on wages at the firm level, espcially for high-skill workers. This suggests that rent-sharing or other firm-level wage setting mechanisms are key to fully understand the incidence of such tax credit policy.

• Tuesday 23 January 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ROY Sutanuka (Australian National University) : Disruptive Effects of Preferential Policies: Evidence from Large Scale Field Experiments in India

  Abstract

  This paper reports on the first large-scale randomized field experiment (which includes 14,190undergraduate students) involving legally-recognized minorities to examine the causal effects ofproviding performance based financial incentives to disadvantaged students on high stakes universitytest scores. Two definitions of being disadvantaged are examined separately: 1) income disadvantage2) social disadvantage of belonging to minority groups, i.e., the lower caste groups. The aim ofthe paper is to measure the impact of two types of affirmative action policies on the disadvantagedgroups that the policies target and on the excluded relatively advantaged peers. When only poorstudents were given the opportunity to win the prize incentives, the average test scores of wholecohort decreased by .14 standard deviations. There is a negative spillover effect on the test scores ofthe nonpoor peers who are excluded from the opportunity to win the prize incentives. Mechanisms ofacademic non co-operation as a response to preferential policies are explored. The paper providesevidence of social tension and consequent non-cooperation among peers when only poor students areincentivized and majority of the peers, who happen to be non poor, are excluded.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 16 January 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CASSAN Guilhem (University of Namur) : Deprivation measures combining poverty and mortality: Theory and global evidence

  BALAND Jean Marie (University of Namur)

  DECERF Benoit (University of Namur)

  LUO Yiyang (University of Essex)

• Tuesday 9 January 2018 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  JANNIN Nicolas (Paris School of Economics) : The impact of local taxes on the French housing markets

  Aurélie Sotura

• Tuesday 19 December 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SCHMUTZ Benoit (Crest,IPP,Polytechnique) : Frictional Labor Mobility

  Modibo Sidibe (Duke university)

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 12 December 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  DUFLO Esther (MIT) : Comparing two programs evaluated on different populations: Evidence from two entrepreneurship programs in France

  Bruno Crépon, Elise Huilery, William Pariente, Juliette Seban

  Abstract

  TBA

• Tuesday 12 December 2017

  *

• Tuesday 5 December 2017

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ALAN M. Taylor : The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 28 November 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BERMAN Yonatan (King's College London) : Drivers of wealth inequality in the United States: the surprising impact of savings.

• Tuesday 21 November 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ASSOUAD Lydia (PSE) : Measuring lnequality in the Middle East 1990-2016: The World’s Most Unequal Region?

  F. Alvaredo and T. Piketty

  Abstract

  In this paper we combine household surveys, national accounts, income tax data and wealth data in order to estimate the level and evolution of income concentration in the Middle East for the period 1990-2016. According to our benchmark series, the Middle East appears to be the most unequal region in the world, with a top decile income share as large as 61%, as compared to 36% in Western Europe, 47% in the USA and 55% in Brazil. This is due both to enormous inequality between countries (particularly between oil-rich and population-rich countries) and to large inequality within countries (which we probably under-estimate, given the limited access to proper fiscal data). We stress the importance of increasing transparency on income and wealth in the Middle East, as well as the need to develop mechanisms of regional redistribution and investment

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 14 November 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LOPEZ-FORERO Margarita (Université d’Evry, Paris-Saclay) : International Sourcing and Employment in Times of Financial Crisis: The case of France

  Jean-Charles Bricongne and Fabrizio Coricelli

• Tuesday 7 November 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BEHNENDA Asma (PSE) : Absence, Substitutability and Productivity: Evidence from Teachers

  Abstract

  Worker absence is a frequent phenomenon but little is known on its effects on productivity nor on organizations’ strategies to cope with this temporary disruptive event through substitute workers. Using a unique French administrative dataset matching, for each absence spell, each missing secondary school teacher to her substitute teacher, I find that the expected loss in daily productivity from teacher absences is on par with replacing an average teacher with one at the 15th percentile of the teacher value-added distribution. On average, tenured substitute teachers are able to compensate 30 % of this negative impact while contract substitute teachers do not have any statistically significant impact. This result has important implication for public policy in the context of the shortage of tenured teachers in disadvantaged areas, where contract teachers are more and more concentrated.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 31 October 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  RANJBAR RAVASAN Farshad (PSE) : The excess burden of collateral

  Abstract

  Developing a model of adverse selection with heterogeneous borrowers across risk and return dimensions, this paper shows that in developing countries that have poor institutional quality of collateral and bankruptcy laws, the aggressive collateralization makes the risk taking behavior of borrowers suboptimally more costly. This discourages entrepreneurship activities and thus hinders the potential growth among young firms with high impact on job creation in the economy. I provide the empirical evidence by investigating the performance of 76 cohorts of firms that entered the market between 1934 to 2009 during the fiscal year of 2012 in four MENA economies with weak collateral and bankruptcy laws. Matching data on the location of firms and bank branches, I construct the index for local collateral policy that prevails in the vicinity of each firm. I find that new enterprises expand their employment faster when they are located in areas in which banks with less stringent collateral policy have a stronger presence. They are also less likely to be discouraged from applying for a loan, more likely to have access to bank finance and more likely to make investments.

• Tuesday 24 October 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  FERNANDEZ SANCHEZ Martin (LISER) : School Segregation and Long-term Happiness: Evidence from the 1981 Privatization Reform in Chile

  Abstract

  In 1981 the Chilean Military Government introduced a new system of school financing and choice that led to an exodus of middle-class students from public to subsidized private schools. Using contemporaneous household surveys and historical administrative data of enrollment before and after the reform, I examine the long-term impact of increasing subsidized private enrollment –and thereby segregation- on subjective well-being. The results show that children from poor families were negatively affected by the policy change. On average, being exposed to a 10 percentage point increase in subsidized private enrollment during childhood is associated with a drop in adult life satisfaction of 6% of a standard deviation, an effect equivalent to a fall in household income of 30%.

• Tuesday 17 October 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09 Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MEHMOOD Sultan : Judiciary’s Achilles Heel: Executive Control via Appointment Power

  Abstract

  How does an increase of executive constraints impact the judiciary? We exploit a change in judicial selection procedure in a weak democracy, from the president selecting the judges to the selection of judges through a judicial commission, to ascertain the causal effects of an increase in executive constraints on judicial independence. By exploiting the across-district and over-time variation in reform exposure generated by random exit of judges, we are able to ascertain the causal effect of this reform on judicial outcomes. We find that this reform has a large effect on judicial independence. In particular, we show that the change in the selection procedure of judges caused a 20% reduction in state victories. This increase in independence does not come at the expense of increased case delay. Furthermore, the analysis of mechanisms reveal that the steepest fall in state victories occurred in less politically connected districts. We also provide suggestive evidence that the new appointment procedure also incentivised the incumbent judges to adjudicate against the state more often, though less so than the judges appointed under the new selection procedure.

• Tuesday 10 October 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ROTUNNO Lorenzo (AMSE) : Trade in unhealthy foods and obesity: Evidence from Mexico

  Osea Giuntella and Matthias Rieger

• Tuesday 3 October 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BANERJEE Abhijit (MIT) : How important are matching frictions in the labor market? Experimental & non-experimental evidence from India

  Gaurav Chiplunkar

  Abstract

  This paper provides evidence of substantial matching frictions in the labor market in India. In particular, placement officers in vocational training institutes have very little information about the job preferences of candidates they are trying to place in jobs. In the first part of this study, we adopt a number of methods to elicit genuine preferences of candidates over different types of jobs. In the second part, we find that providing placement officers with these preference information leads to a substantial improvement in matching candidates to jobs interviews and hence subsequent employment outcomes for up to six months after initial placement.

• Tuesday 26 September 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ZHU Yinchu (Brandeis University) : Earnings, Income, and Wealth Distributions in China: Facts from the 2011 China Household Finance Survey

  Jijun Tan, Ting Zeng

  Abstract

  We use 2011 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data to describe inequality of earnings, income, and wealth in China. We finnd high inequality of labor earnings, income, and wealth in China. We also find that the business income comprises a large share of incomes among top groups. Households with young heads tend to be rich in earnings and incomes, and their incomes are largely generated from businesses. We find that the top 1 percent income share in China in 2010 is comparable to that in the United States in 1928. In 1928 the social security system was still absent in the United States. This comparison gives us hints that the high inequality level in current China is probably due to the ine§ectiveness of redistribution policies in China.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 19 September 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SOLOW Ben : Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from Tax Notches

  Kavan Kucko & Kevin Rinz

  Abstract

  States that declined to raise their Medicaid income eligibility cutoffs to 138 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) created a “coverage gap” between their existing, often much lower Medicaid eligibility cutoffs and the FPL, the lowest level of income at which the ACA provides refundable, advanceable “premium tax credits” to subsidize the purchase of private insurance. Lacking access to any form of subsidized health insurance, residents of those states with income in that range face a strong incentive, in the form of a large, discrete increase in post-tax income (i.e. an upward notch) at the FPL, to increase their earnings and obtain the premium tax credit. We investigate the extent to which they respond to that incentive. Using the universe of tax returns, we document excess mass, or bunching, in the income distribution surrounding this notch. Consistent with Saez (2010), we find that bunching occurs only among filers with self-employment income. Specifically, filers without children and married filers with three or fewer children exhibit significant bunching. Analysis of tax data linked to labor supply measures from the American Community Survey, however, suggests that this bunching likely reflects a change in reported income rather than a change in true labor supply. We find no evidence that wage and salary workers adjust their labor supply in response to increased availability of directly purchased health insurance.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 12 September 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GUYON Nina (ENS-PSL and PSE) : Is Desegregation Possible? Evidence from Social Housing Demolitions in France

• Tuesday 5 September 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  TEYSSIER Geoffrey : Inequality of Opportunity: New Measurement Methodology and Impact on Growth

• Tuesday 4 July 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BERGEAUD Antonin : Innovation, Firms and Wage Inequality

  Philippe Aghion, Richard Blundell, Rachel Griffith

  Abstract

  This paper uses matched employee-employer data from the UK that we augment with information on R&D expenditures, to analyze the relationship between innovativeness and average wage income across firms. And indeed, we show that more R&D intensive firms pay higher wages on average. Our second finding is that the premium to working in more R&D intensive firms seems to be higher for low-occupation workers than for high-occupation workers. To account for these findings, we develop a simple model of the firm where the complementarity between *high-occupation* and *low-occupation* employees within the firm increases with the firm's degree of innovativeness. An additional prediction of the model, which is also confirmed by the empirical analysis, is that low-occupation workers stay longer in more innovative firms.

• Tuesday 27 June 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LAVEST Chloé (CAE) : The value of unemployment insurance

  Johannes Spinnewijn

• Tuesday 20 June 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  VISKANIC Max (Sciences Po) : What's in the Way of Women? Evidence of the Incumbency Disadvantage from French Politics

• Tuesday 13 June 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BLANCHET Thomas : Generalized Pareto Curves: Theory and Applications

  Juliette Fournier and Thomas Piketty

  Abstract

  We define generalized Pareto curves as the curve of inverted Pareto coefficients b(p), where b(p) is the ratio between average income or wealth above rank p and the p-th quantile Q(p) (i.e. b(p) = E[X|X > Q(p)]/Q(p)). We use them to characterize and visualize power laws. We develop a method to nonparametrically recover the entire distribution based on tabulated income or wealth data as is generally available from tax authorities, which produces smooth and realistic shapes of generalized Pareto curves. Using detailed tabulations from quasi-exhaustive tax data, we demonstrate the precision of our method both empirically and analytically. It gives better results than the most commonly used interpolation tech- niques. Finally, we use Pareto curves to identify recurring distributional patterns, and connect those findings to the existing literature that explains observed distributions by random growth models.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 6 June 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MONTIALOUX Claire (CREST) : The pass-through of minimum wage increases into US retail prices

  Tobias Renkin (University of Zurich (UZH)) et Michael Siegenthaler (ETH KOF)

• Tuesday 30 May 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  RUEDA Valeria (Oxford) : Sex and the Mission : the conflicting long-term effects of missionary activity on HIV prevalence

• Tuesday 23 May 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ARTOLA Miguel (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) : Executive Remuneration in Europe: From gentlemanly capitalism to the rise of the super-manager (1920-2000)

• Tuesday 16 May 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GASPARE TORTORICI (Trinity College Dublin) : Globalisation, agricultural markets, and mass emigration, 1876 - 1912

• Tuesday 9 May 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MONTALBAN-CASTILLA José (PSE) : The role of need-based grants on higher education achievement

  Abstract

  Little evidence exists on the specific contribution of performance-based incentive components to the effect of need-based financial aid on student's outcomes. This paper aims at elucidate the causal effect of financial aid on the academic performance of low-income students in higher education, using administrative micro-data from Carlos III University of Madrid. Under the propitious Spanish national means-tested grant program, I am able to disentangle the impacts from two different grant schemes with different intensities of performance-based incentives. I use the sharp discontinuities that are induced by family income thresholds to estimate the effect of being eligible to different categories of scholarships, and exploit the fact that academic performance requirements (i.e. having passed a certain number of credits in the previous academic year) became more stringent for students who applied for the Spanish need-based grant after 2012. I find no effects of the large means-tested grant on students' academic performance with weak achievement component. However, I find positive effects on students' academic performance when the achievement component is more demanding, for those students who are more entitle to the grant. Students' also enhance their fraction of turned-up exams and their average GPA on subjects showed-up to final exam. No evidence is found on students' subjects selection and dropout effects that might contaminate the results.

• Tuesday 2 May 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BEKKOUCHE Yasmine (PSE) : The Price of a Vote: Evidence from France, 1993-2014

  Julia Cagé (Sciences Po Paris)

• Tuesday 25 April 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GEORGES-KOT Simon (Insee-Crest) : Credit constraints, self-employment and entrepreneurship in France, 1945-2014

  Arthur Bauer et Bertrand Garbinti

• Tuesday 18 April 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  KHOURY Laura (Paris School of Economics) : The impact of unemployment benefits on the timing of economic dismissals

• Tuesday 11 April 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MUROGA Kiho (University of Tokyo) : To Work at the Office or Home? Mincer's Hypothesis and the Labor Supply Elasticity of Married Women in Japan

  Abstract

  In this study, we empirically tested Mincer's (1962) hypothesis, which holds that the reason for an observed higher labor supply elasticity of married women than for men or single women is their longer household hours, which are highly substitutable with working hours. Using a time-use survey of Japanese working married women and the exogenous income tax shock that formed a natural experiment, we found that married women in Japan increased their working hours and decreased their household hours when taxes decreased, with an estimated compensated wage elasticity of market work of 0.13 to 0.30 and of housework -0.31 to -0.02. The results, particularly the near perfect substitutability of household and market work, confirm Mincer's hypothesis.

• Tuesday 4 April 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  RAPOPORT Hillel : Minimum Wages and the Labor Market Effects of Immigration

  EDO Anthony (CEPII)

• Tuesday 28 March 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  WALDENSTROM Daniel (Paris School of Economics) : Global earnings inequality, 1970-2015: Evidence from a new database

• Tuesday 21 March 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  STEGER Thomas (Leipzig University) : Das House-Kapital: A Long Term Housing & Macro Model

  Volker Grossmann (University of Fribourg)

• Tuesday 14 March 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE) : Middleman Minorities and Ethnic Violence: Anti-Jewish Pogroms in Eastern Europe

  Joint with Irena Grosfeld and Seyhun Orcan Sakalli

  Abstract

  Abstract: We present evidence to reconcile two seemingly contradictory observations: on the one hand, minorities often choose middleman occupations such as traders and creditors as a safeguard against violence; on the other hand, middleman minorities do become targets of persecution and ethnic violence. Using panel data on anti-Jewish pogroms in Eastern Europe between 1800 and 1939, we document that ethnic violence breaks out when income shocks hit at the times of a sharp increase in political uncertainty. In contrast, in times of a relative political stability, economic shocks do not instigate violence against middleman minorities. We also show that pogroms primarily affected localities where Jews dominated the credit sector as opposed to any other intermediary professions, including trade in agricultural or non-agricultural goods, suggesting that it is not the middlemen nature of the occupations of minorities that drove ethnic violence in times of economic and political crises, but the long-term character of the lending transactions.

• Tuesday 7 March 2017 12:30-13:30

  salle R2-20, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  HOUNGBONON Georges (TSE-IDEI) : Winners or Losers from Broadband Internet

  Julienne LIANG (Orange)

  Abstract

  Skill-biased technological change is identified as one of the drivers of worsening in-equality and unemployment in high-income countries. However, not all technologies are skill-biased. In this paper, we investigate the effects of fixed broadband Internet adoption on income inequality and employment in France. Using a unique town-level data, we find that broadband adoption raises income, lowers within-town inequality, particularly when the adoption rate reaches a critical mass of 30%, but widens the income gap between towns. Furthermore, broadband adoption has no significant effect on unemployment rate, but comes with jobs creation and destruction in specific economic sectors. These results are robust to the estimation strategy, and accord well with the findings of previous studies. In particular, our estimates imply that 10% increase in broadband penetration raises gross national income per capita by 2%, very close to existing cross-country estimates.

• Tuesday 28 February 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SUARI-ANDREU Eduard (University of Groningen) : Giving With a Warm Hand: Evidence on Estate Planning and Bequests

  Raun van Ooijen, Rob J.M. Alessie, and Viola Angelini

  Abstract

  In this paper we contribute to the literature by empirically studying the presence of a bequest motive for saving using administrative data for the Netherlands. Building upon and expanding the previous work by Kopczuk (2007), we empirically identify the bequest motive by studying how terminally ill individuals manage their estate in the last instances of their life. We regress net worth at the end of life on length of terminal illness, while controlling for age and lifetime income. We hypothesize that a negative relationship reflects a decrease in net worth due to early bequests resulting from estate planning triggered by the onset of a terminal illness. Employing quantile regression, we find that having a terminal illness of above ten years has a considerable impact on net worth at death, specially for married males who are at the top of the net worth distribution. Among this group, we find that the effect is specially strong for younger individuals (below 65 years), and for individuals with children who are at the bottom quartile of the income distribution. We conclude that the effects we find reflect the presence of an underlying bequest motive for saving.

• Tuesday 21 February 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  TENAND Marianne : Pay less, consume more? Estimating the price elasticity of home care demand of the disabled elderly

  Quitterie Roquebert (PSE)

  Abstract

  Although the consumption of home care is increasing with population ageing, little is known about its price sensitivity. This paper estimates the price elasticity of the demand for home care of the disabled elderly. We use an original dataset collected from a French County Council on the beneficiaries of the French home care program (Allocation personnalisée d'autonomie, “APA”). This cash-for-care allowance works as an hourly subsidy reducing the price of home care. APA administrative records provide unique information on out--of--pocket payments and home care consumption. Identification primarily relies on inter--individual variations in producer prices. Price endogeneity may arise if APA beneficiaries non--randomly select into a producer; we address this potential issue by exploiting the unequal spatial distribution of producers in the district. Our results point to a price elasticity lower than unity, around -0.4: a 10% increase in the out-of-pocket price is predicted to lower consumption by 4%, or 37 minutes per month for the median consumer. Copayment rates thus matter for allocative and dynamic efficiencies, while the generosity of home care subsidies also entails redistributive effects.

• Tuesday 14 February 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CYRUS CHU (WTO) : Income and wealth inequality in Taiwan

• Tuesday 7 February 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  YANG David (PSE) : Capital accumulation, private property and rising inequality in China, 1978-2015

  T. Piketty and G. Zucman

• Tuesday 31 January 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BRIOLE Simon (Paris School of Economics) : From teacher quality to teaching quality: Instruction time, teaching practices and student achievement in the US

  Abstract

  Though teachers are consistently found to play a major role in shaping student learning, the determinants of instructional productivity remains a puzzle. In this paper, I implement a within-student between (math) topics strategy on TIMSS 2011 US student test scores to assess the average mathematics instructional productivity in the US. Then, I investigate the role of a largely unexplored and yet intuitive input of teachers’ productivity, namely the teaching prac- tices they implement in the classroom. I find that, on average, one weekly hour of mathematics instructional time increases test scores by 4.4% of a standard deviation, and that the use of practices emphasizing student active participation in the lesson is positively and strongly corre- lated to instructional productivity. A one standard deviation increase in the relative use of these practices is related to a 0.08 standard deviation increase in student test scores over the year, which is equivalent to half the effect of a standard deviation increase in teacher value-added estimates from previous studies. Finally, I find suggestive evidence that teachers implementing these kind of practices are also better at improving student non cognitive skills related to math learning, and that they are particularly efficient with female students.

• Tuesday 24 January 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MARTNEZ-TOLEDANO Clara (PSE) : The distribution of wealth in Spain: Evidence from capitalized income tax data (1984-2013)

  Abstract

  This paper combines different sources (income tax data, national accounts, wealth surveys) and the capitalization method in order to deliver consistent, unified wealth distribution series and their asset composition for Spain over the 1984-2013 period, with detailed breakdowns by age and gender over the 1999-2013 sub-period. My findings point out a moderate decrease in the top 10% wealth share from the mid-eighties until beginning of the 1990s, at the expense of the increase in both the middle 40% and the bottom 50% of the distribution. The top 10% wealth then starts to increase again, reaching a similar level to the mid-eighties in 2008, and then it stabilizes. The bulk in both housing and offshore wealth, together with rising inequality in rates of return and savings rates have pushed toward rising wealth concentration.

• Tuesday 17 January 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  HE Yinghua (Rice U) : Absence, Substitutability and Productivity: Evidence from Teachers

  Abstract

  Worker absence is a frequent phenomenon but little is known on its effects on productivity or on organizations’ strategies to cope with this temporary disruptive event through substitute workers. Using a unique French administrative dataset on teacher absences and substitute teachers, the aim of this paper is (a) to estimate the effect of teacher absence on student achievement; (b) to analyze substitute teachers’ assignment policies both across schools and within school, across classrooms; (c) to study how the effect of teacher absence can be mitigated through the assignment and quality of substitute teachers. Preliminary results suggest that the expected loss in daily productivity from teacher absences is on par with replacing an average teacher with one at the 15th percentile of the teacher value-added distribution. The effect on student test scores of the assignment of a tenured substitute teacher for a year is on par with replacing an average teacher with one at the 35th percentile. The effect of the assignment of a contract teacher for a year is on par with replacing an average teacher with a one at the second percentile. These results have major implications for educational inequality as contract teachers are mainly concentrated in disadvantaged areas.

• Tuesday 10 January 2017 12:30-12:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BELLET Clément (Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam) : The Paradox of the Joneses: Superstar Houses and Mortgage Frenzy in American Suburbs

  Abstract

  Despite a major upscaling of suburban houses over the last decades, average house satisfaction has remained steady in the United States. I show that upward comparison in size can explain this paradox, as top housing size mirrored the U-shaped pattern of top income inequality. Combining data from the American Housing Survey from 1984 to 2009 with an original dataset of three millions suburban houses built between 1920 and 2009, I find that suburban owners who experienced a relative downscaling of their home due to the building of bigger units in their suburb record lower satisfaction and housing values. These homeowners are more likely to upscale and subscribe to extra mortgage loans. Results are robust to household fixed effects and concentrated in counties with low levels of segregation, suggesting a causal link between inequality and mortgage debt.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 3 January 2017 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  JARAVEL Xavier (Stanford University) : The Unequal Gains from Product Innovations: Evidence from the US Retail Sector

  Abstract

  Using detailed product-level data in the retail sector in the United States from 2004 to 2013, this paper shows that product innovations disproportionately benefited high-income households due to increasing inequality and the endogenous response of supply to market size. Annualized quality-adjusted inflation was 0.65 percentage points lower for high-income households, relative to low-income households. Using national and local changes in market size driven by demographic trends plausibly exogenous to supply factors, the paper provides causal evidence that a shock to the relative demand for goods (1) affects the direction of product innovations, and (2) leads to a decrease in the relative price of the good for which demand became relatively larger (i.e. the long-term supply curve is downward sloping). A calibration shows that this channel explains most of the observed difference in quality-adjusted inflation rates across the income distribution.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 13 December 2016 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BERTOLI Simone (CERDI) : Unemployment Insurance and Reservation Wages: Evidence from Administrative Data

• Tuesday 6 December 2016 12:30-13:30

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LE FORNER Héléne : What are the consequences of parents' separation on children ? An educational attainment perspective. Evidence from France

• Tuesday 29 November 2016 12:30-13:30

  MARTINEZ Isabel (KOF (ETH Zurich), CEPR, CESifo) : Beggar-Thy-Neighbour Tax Cuts: Mobility in Response to a Regressive Income Tax Reform in Switzerland.

• Tuesday 22 November 2016 12:30-13:30

  LABONNE Claire (ACPR-PSE) : Cheap Credit, Affordable Housing? Evidence from the French Interest-Free Loan Policy

  Cécile Welter-Nicol (INSEE)

  Abstract

  We use an arguably exogenous shift in credit to assess how borrowers’ characteristics and house prices vary with credit conditions. We identify credit supply shifts using within ZIP-code variations in the Interest-Free Loan (IFL) policy in France between 2009 and 2011. We sample ZIP-codes in which the IFL policy is exogenous to both contemporaneous and expected house prices. IFL policy zoning and subsidy size reforms are not simultaneous which allows ruling out local demand-based reforms. These credit supply shocks alleviate loan-to-value conditions. This in turn reduces the difference between borrowers’ and average incomes. Credit supply shifts are also channelled into housing prices. We find a high short-term elasticity of housing prices to credit (close to 0.7).

• Tuesday 15 November 2016 12:30-13:30

  COMMAULT Jeanne (CREST) : How Does Consumption Respond to a Transitory Income Shock? Reconciling Natural Experiments and Structural Estimations

  Abstract

  Results from natural experiments show that consumption responds strongly and significantly to a transitory variation in income such as a tax rebate or a lottery gain, while structural methods relying on theoretical restrictions to identify this response in survey data find that it is small and not statistically significant. I account for this discrepancy by showing that structural estimation methods neglect the correlation between log-consumption growth and past shocks induced by precautionary behavior in the baseline model, and reinforced by borrowing constraints, habit persistence or illiquid wealth in more general frameworks. This correlation undermines the validity of the restrictions used to identify the elasticity of consumption to a transitory shock and generates a downward bias. I develop a robust estimator that allows past shocks to affect log-consumption growth. The elasticity to a transitory shock becomes statistically significant and the results imply that, on average, 20% of a transitory gain in net income is consumed within the following year, which is comparable to the findings of the literature based on natural experiments.

• Tuesday 8 November 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  IARIA Alessandro (CREST) : Frontier Knowledge and the Creation of Ideas: Evidence from the Collapse of International Science in the Wake of World War I

• Tuesday 25 October 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LANDAUD Fanny (NHH) : Competitive schools and the gender gap in the choice of field of study

  Son-Thierry Ly et Eric Maurin

  Abstract

  *

• Tuesday 18 October 2016 12:30-13:30

  FOREMNY Dirk (Universitat de Barcelona and Intitut d'Economia de Barcelona) : Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes from Spanish Reforms

  David Agrawal (University of Kentucky)

  Abstract

  We quantify the importance of mobility as a response to top tax rate changes in a country where migration is relatively low. A recent Spanish tax reform granted states the authority to set income tax rates for the first time. This Spanish tax reform resulted in substantial tax differences across states for high-income tax payers. To study the effect of these tax changes, we use individual-level information from Social Security records over a period of one decade. The reform increases the probability of moving. In addition, conditional on moving, taxes have a significant effect on the location choice. A one percent increase in the net of tax rate for a region relative to others increases the probability of moving to that region by 1.7 percentage points.

• Tuesday 11 October 2016 12:30-13:30

  HUSSAIN Iftikhar (University of Sussex) : Consumer Response to Short-Term Innovations in School Productivity: Evidence From the Housing Market and Parents' School Choices

• Tuesday 4 October 2016 12:30-13:30

  FLÉCHE Sarah (LSE) : Teacher quality, test scores and non-cognitive skills: Evidence from primary school teachers in the UK

• Tuesday 27 September 2016 12:30-13:30

  RANALDI Marco (PSE) : On the Measurement of Functional Income Distribution

• Tuesday 20 September 2016 12:30-13:30

  HYPPOLITE Paul-Adrien : Towards a theory on the causes of the Greek crisis: an investigation of national balance sheet data (1997-2014)

• Tuesday 13 September 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LEHMANN Etienne (CRED, University Panthéon-Assas Paris II) : Optimal Income Taxation with Unemployment and Wage Responses: A Sufficient Statistics Approach

  Kory KROFT (University of Toronto, NBER), Kavan KUCKO (Boston University) and Johannes SCHMIEDER (Boston University, NBER and IZA)

  Abstract

  We derive a sufficient statistics optimal tax formula in a general model that incorporates unemployment and endogenous wages, to study the shape of the tax and transfer system at the bottom of the distribution. The sufficient statistics are the macro employment response to taxation and the micro and macro participation responses. We estimate these statistics using policy variation from the U.S. tax and transfer system. Our results suggest that the optimal tax more closely resembles a Negative Income Tax than an Earned Income Tax Credit relative to the case where unemployment and wage responses are not taken into account.

• Tuesday 5 July 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  EFFENTERRE Clémentine (PSE) : How Does Maternal Labor Supply Respond to Changes in Children’s School Schedule?

  Emma Duchini

  Abstract

  In this paper we analyze mothers’ labor supply response to a reorganization of children’s school schedule. Until 2013, French children between two and eleven years old had their class time spread over four days and they did not go to school on Wednesday. In 2013 a national reform shortened each school day by an average of 45 minutes and reallocated the resulting three hours to Wednesday morning. We look at the short-run impact on mothers’ labor supply, exploiting variation in the implementation of this reform over time and across the age of the youngest child. We provide evidence of a reallocation of working hours over the week and no effect on the total number of hours worked. These results are driven by women who have a stronger bargaining power and face a low cost of flexibility at work.

• Tuesday 28 June 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  SANTAMARIA Marta (U. Warwick) : Intergenerational Mobility and Preferences for redistribution.

  Alberto Alesina (Harvard) et Edoardo Teso (Harvard)

• Tuesday 21 June 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  GARBINTI Bertrand (CREST) : Inequality Dynamics in France 1910-2013: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts (DINA)

  J. Goupille et T. Piketty

• Tuesday 14 June 2016 12:30-13:30

  NIEDDU Marco (Upf, Barcelona) : Bocconi or Camerino? Students’ choices over quality of postgraduate education

• Tuesday 7 June 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  RABATÉ Simon (PSE) : Can I Stay or Should I Go? Mandatory Retirement and Labor Force Participation of Older Workers

  Abstract

  The growing pressure for reforming ?nancially unstable pension systems makes it crucial to understand the determinants of retirement decision. This article focuses on a paramount though often disregarded channel, namely demand-side induced retirement. Labor supply and demand determinants of retirement are often di?cult to disentangle. In this paper, I take advantage of a unique natural experiment, the progressive ban of mandatory retirement in France in the 2000s. Drawing on an extensive administrative dataset, I use inter-industry reform-induced variations in mandatory retirement legislation, to insulate this factor from other determinants of retirement, such as ?nancial incentives. I ?nd that demand-side determinants through mandatory retirement do play a role in retirement behavior, as the repeal of mandatory retirement increased employment of older workers. Exit rates from employment are estimated to be 6% higher when mandatory retirement is possible. Secondly, as in the French pension system the mandatory retirement age coincided with the full rate age, I exhibit a previously uncovered determinant of the large spike in retirement distribution at this age. Mandatory retirement is estimated to explain around 12.5% of the observed bunching at the full rate

• Tuesday 31 May 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  CARBONNIER Clément (U. Paris 8 Vincennes-St Denis, LED & Sciences Po, LIEPP) : Progressive profile of local taxes and territorial disparities of public goods and purchasing power

  Abstract

  Local taxes'progresive profile may be determined through three main channels: i) the way tax bases are calculated, ii) the schedules of rates and iii) the differences of taxation between territories partially segregated on income. The present paper aims at documenting these issues, taking profit of local government accounting data, aggregate tax returns at the level of these jurisdictions and the European SILC survey on households living conditions. Housing tax has globally a slightly progressive profile because of exemptions and reductions (ii) and positive correlation between local tax burden per capita and local mean income (iii). This second progressivity determinant is driven by two causes: on the one hand, the central government equalization between local jurisdictions through an overall operating grant depending on local mean income; on the other hand, the positive correlation between the size of territories and both the mean income and the local public expenditure. Nevertheless, due to a regressive tax base (i) and a larger number of exempted households in lower income territories (iii), housing tax is regressive among non-exempted households. Similar qualitative results are found for land taxes, with a globally more regressive pattern. Taking local purchasing power into account leads to progressivity attenuation (or regressivity accentuation), but the qualitative results stands.

• Tuesday 24 May 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  GOUPILLE-LEBRET Jonathan (ENS LYON) : Measuring the Distribution of Wealth: Methods and Evidence for France 1800-2013

  B. Garbinti et T. Piketty

• Tuesday 17 May 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  BARTELS Charlotte (DIW Berlin) : Top incomes in Germany, 1871-2011

• Tuesday 10 May 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  DURANTE Ruben (UPF) : One Team, One Nation: Football, Ethnic Identity, and Conflict in Africa

  E. Depetris-Chauvín

  Abstract

  Can successful collective experiences that prime patriotic sentiments reduce inter-ethnic tensions and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa? We examine this question by looking at the case of football. Combining survey data for over 35,000 respondents in 20 countries with information on over 70 official games by African national football teams between 2000 and 2015, we document that individuals interviewed in the days following a victory of their country's national team are 3 to 4% less likely to report a strong sense of ethnic identity than those interviewed in the days before the match. The estimated effect is sizeable (i.e. a 20% decrease in the average probability of ethnic self-identification), and robust to controlling for country-year, language group, and even match fixed effects. National team's victories are also associated with an increase in trust in others, especially in people of different ethnicity, but have no impact on trust in the government or support for the incumbent. We also find that social unrest (i.e, riots, strikes, protests, and repression) significantly decreases in the two weeks following a victory in the Africa Cup of Nations or the FIFA World Cup finals. Finally, using exogenous variation from close qualification to the CAN tournament, we find that countries whose teams (barely) qualified experience significantly less internal conflict in the six months following the qualification than countries whose teams (barely) did not; this effect is particularly large for unexpected qualifications. Our findings suggest that, even in regions where ethnic tensions have deep historical roots, transitory patriotic shocks can reinforce national identity, reduce inter-ethnic mistrust and have a tangible impact on conflict intensity.

• Tuesday 3 May 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  JULIA CAGE : The Production of Information in an Online World

  Nicolas Hervé (INA) ; Marie-Luce Viaud (INA)

  Abstract

  Information is costly to produce but cheap to reproduce. Who are the main providers of original news in the online world, and how are they rewarded for this? What are the benefits of breaking out a story, and how does information propagate? This paper addresses these issues by exploiting a unique dataset including all online content produced in French language by the universe of general information media outlets in France during year 2013. We develop a topic detection algorithm that identifies each news story, trace the timeline of each story and perform a plagiarism detection algorithm to distinguish between original reporting and copy-and-paste. We then merge this content data with data on investment in news gathering and daily audience to investigate the costs and benefits of information production. We first show that about 50% of all online information is copy-and-paste, with large variations across media outlets. We then highlight the specific role played by the French news agency: AFP has the largest newsroom and is the main provider of original information, reflecting the use of an adequate copyright system. We next find a positive relationship between the number of journalists and the quantity of original news production. Using daily-level variations, we finally show that producing original news leads to a statistically significant increase in online audience, but that the magnitude of this audience effect is very low. This illustrates the need to develop new paywall or copyright models.

• Tuesday 26 April 2016 12:30-13:30

  MARGOLIS David (PSE) : Taxes and Technological Determinants of Wage Inequalities: France 1976-2010

• Tuesday 19 April 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  ROUSSILLE Nina (UC Berkeley) : Tax evasion and the “Swiss cheese” regulation

• Tuesday 12 April 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LEPINTEUR Anthony : Working time regulation and subjective well-being: evidence from Portugal and France

• Tuesday 5 April 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  AKIKO Suwa-Eisenmann (PSE) : Intergenerational wealth mobility in France,19th and 20th century

  Jérôme Bourdieu (PSE-INRA and EHESS) Lionel Kesztenbaum (INED and PSE), Gilles Postel-Vinay (PSE)

• Tuesday 29 March 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  MARKEVICH Andrei (New Economic School; Hoover Institution Stanford University) : The Economic Effects of the Abolition of Serfdom: Evidence from the Russian Empire

  Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (PSE)

  Abstract

  We document a very large increase in agricultural productivity, peasants’ living standards, and industrial development in late 19th century Imperial Russia as a result of the abolition of serfdom in 1861. A counterfactual exercise shows that if serfs were freed in 1820, by 1913 Russia would have been more than one-and-a-half times richer, compared to what it actually was. We construct a novel province-level panel dataset of development outcomes, and conduct a difference-in differences analysis of the effects of the abolition of serfdom, relying on cross-sectional variation in the shares of serfs and the timing of the different stages of reform, controlling for unobserved variation across provinces and over time, as well as province-specific development trends. We disentangle the two stages of the abolition of serfdom: the emancipation of serfs and the subsequent land reform. We show that, in contrast to the large positive effect of emancipation, land reform negatively affected agricultural productivity. We provide evidence that a shift to more marketable crops from traditional non-marketable crops is the main mechanism behind the positive effect of emancipation, and the increase in the power of re-partition peasant communes is the main mechanism behind the negative effect of land reform.

• Tuesday 22 March 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  BACH Maria (Lausanne) : Rich Pickings? Risk, Return, and Skill in the Portfolios of the Wealthy

  Laurent Calvet et Paolo Sodini

• Tuesday 15 March 2016 12:30-13:30

  SEGÚ ARTÉS Mariona (Laboratoire RITM Université Paris-Sud, Paris Saclay) : Taxing Vacant Apartments: Can fiscal policy reduce vacancy?

• Tuesday 8 March 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LAVEST Chloé (CAE) : Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark

  Henrik Jacobsen Kleven, London School of Economics and Jakob Egholt Søgaard, University of Copenhagen

  Abstract

  Despite considerable gender convergence over time, substantial gender inequality persists in all countries. Using Danish administrative data from 1980-2011, we show that most of the remaining gender inequality can be attributed to the dynamic effects of having children. The arrival of children leads to a long-run penalty in female earnings of 21% driven in roughly equal proportions by labor force participation, hours of work, and wage rates. Underlying this child penalty, we find clear dynamic effects of child birth on occupation, promotion to manager, and the family friendliness of the firm for women relative to men. The fraction of aggregate gender inequality that can be explained by children is strongly increasing over time— from 30% in 1980 to 80% in 2011—showing that non-child reasons for gender inequality have largely disappeared. Conditional on rich observables, the female child penalty in earnings is increasing in the relative skill of the female in the family, suggesting that mechanisms other than comparative advantage are at play. We probe into the potential role of “gender identity” effects by showing that the female child penalty is strongly related to the relative labor supply history of her parents. This is consistent with the notion that gender attitudes surrounding family and career are shaped in part by the environment in which individuals grow up.

• Tuesday 1 March 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  GONZALES GARCIA Ignacio (Economics Departement EUI) : Tobin's Q and Inequality

• Tuesday 23 February 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  VISKANIC Max (Sciences Po) : Undoing Gender with Institutions. Lessons from the German Division and Reunification.

  Alexandre Georgieff and Claudia Senik

  Abstract

  Social scientists have provided empirical evidence that “gender trumps money”, in the sense that gender norms can be more powerful then economic rationality in shaping daily arrangements between spouses. In particular, it has been shown that when they deviate from the “male breadwinner” norm, women react by “doing gender”, i.e. overplaying their feminine role by increasing the number of housework hours that they accomplish. It has also been shown that the risk of divorce increases when a woman earns more than her husband. This paper shows that, however powerful, these norms are cultural and can be trumped by institutions. We use the 41-year division of Germany as a natural experiment and look at differences between East and West Landers in terms of gender behavior after the German reunification. As most countries of the socialist bloc, the former GDR had designed institutions that were much more gender equalizing than their counterpart in the former FRG. We show that these institutions have created a culture that keeps influencing behavior up to the current period. In particular, in East Germany differs from West Germany in the sense that a woman can earn more than her husband without “doing gender” and without putting her marriage at risk.

• Tuesday 16 February 2016 12:30-14:00

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  FRANCESCO Furlanetto (Norges Bank, OSLO) : Learning mathematical problem solving through practice: a randomised field experiment on a global scale

• Tuesday 9 February 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  CHANCEL Lucas : Carbon and inequality: from Kyoto to Paris. Trends in the global inequality of carbon emissions (1998-2013) and prospects for an equitable adaptation fund

• Tuesday 2 February 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  HE Yinghua (Rice U) : Stay a Little Longer ? Teacher Turnover, Seniority and Quality in French Disadvantaged Schools

  Julien Grenet

• Tuesday 26 January 2016 12:30-13:30

  GEORGIEFF Alexandre : Employment protection and subjective well-being: Evidence from Germany

• Tuesday 19 January 2016 12:30-13:30

  HILLION Mélina (Paris School of Economics) : The happy survivors: Teaching accreditation exams reveal grading biases systematically favor women in male-dominated disciplines

  Abstract

  Discrimination is seen as one of the possible causes behind the underrepresentation of women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). However, existing experiments and studies find contrasting results. We hypothesize that these discrepancies are explained by strong variations in evaluation biases according to both the extent of underrepresentation of women in each STEM and non STEM subject and the level at which the evaluation takes place. This is tested using as natural experiments French competitive teaching exams in 11 different fields and at 3 different levels of qualification. Comparisons of oral non gender-blind tests with written gender-blind tests reveal a bias in favor of women that is strongly increasing with the extent of its male-domination. The bias turns from pro-male in literature and foreign languages to strongly pro-female in math, physics or philosophy. The phenomenon is strongest at the highest level, suggesting that discrimination does not impair hiring chances of female students in STEM fields at the very end of their curriculum, although it may do so at earlier stages (e.g. middle school, high school and college).

• Tuesday 12 January 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  WREN-LEWIS Liam (PSE) : The impact of school peers on interracial adult relationships

• Tuesday 5 January 2016 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  POULHES Mathilde (Sciences Po) : Are Enterprise Zones Benefi ts 'Capitalized' into Commercial "Property Values"? The French case

• Tuesday 15 December 2015 12:30-13:30

  STEIN Mattea (PSE) : Reforming the Speed of Justice: Evidence from an Event Study in Senegal

  Coauthor : Florence Kondylis (World Bank)

• Tuesday 8 December 2015 12:30-13:30

  MULLEROVA Alzbeta : Family Policy and Maternal Employment in the Czech Transition: A Natural Experiment

• Tuesday 1 December 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  VINAS Frederic (PSE) : The real effects of universal banking on firms’ investment : Micro-evidence from 2004-2009

• Tuesday 24 November 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  FABRE Brice : The impact of local income inequality on local public finance: evidence from French municipalities

• Tuesday 17 November 2015 12:30-13:30

  SPAENJERS Christophe : Real Estate as a Luxury Good: Non-Resident Demand and Property Prices in Paris

  Dragana CVIJANOVI (University of North Carolina Kenan-Flagler Business School)

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 10 November 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  ALMEIDA Vanda : Income inequality and redistribution in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 crisis: the US case

• Tuesday 3 November 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  HIJZEN Alexander : More Unequal, but More Mobile? Earnings Inequality and Mobility in OECD Countries.

  Andrea Garnero and Sebastien Martin (OCDE).

• Tuesday 27 October 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  DUPRAZ Yannick (University College Dublin) : Public Finances in Colonial West Africa: British and French compared

  Denis Cogneau et Sandrine Mesplé-Somps

• Tuesday 20 October 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  GARROUSTE Manon (University of Lille) : More harm than good? Sorting effects in a compensatory education program

  Laurent Davezies

• Tuesday 13 October 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  MURTIN Fabrice (OECD) : The OECD Wealth database

• Tuesday 6 October 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  DAHL Gordon (Department of Economics UC San Diego) : Do Politicians Change Public Attitudes?

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 September 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  DUPAS Pascaline (Stanford University) : Decentralization and Efficiency of Subsidy Targeting: Evidence from Malawi's Local Chiefs (joint with Pia Basurto and Jonathan Robinson)

• Tuesday 22 September 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  NUR Jamil (PSE) : Contracting Tenure in a Dual Labor Market

• Tuesday 15 September 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  CHRISTIAN Sikandra (Berkeley) : Community Based Preferences for Project Choice

• Tuesday 8 September 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  WALDENSTROM Daniel (Université Paris Ouest) : Intergenerational wealth mobility and the role of inheritance: Evidence from multiple generations

• Tuesday 7 July 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  ESTEVEZ BAULUZ Luis (PSE) : TBA

• Tuesday 30 June 2015 12:30-13:30

  BACH Laurent : TBA

• Tuesday 23 June 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  TERRIER Camille (PSE) : The Design of Teacher Assignment: Theory and Evidence.

• Tuesday 16 June 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  SCHINKE Christoph (ifo Institut ) : Inter vivos transfers in German family firms

• Wednesday 10 June 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  GABAIX Xavier (NYU, CEPR and NBER) : Optimal Taxation with Behavioral Agents

  Co-author(s) : Emmanuel Farhi (Harvard, CEPR and NBER)

  Abstract

  This paper develops a theory of optimal taxation with behavioral agents. We use a general behavioral framework that encompasses a wide range of behavioral biases such as misper- ceptions and internalities. We revisit the three pillars of optimal taxation: Ramsey (linear commodity taxation to raise revenues and redistribute), Pigou (linear commodity taxation to correct externalities) and Mirrlees (nonlinear income taxation). We show how the canonical optimal tax formulas are modi?ed and lead to a rich set of novel economic insights. We also show how to incorporate nudges in the optimal taxation frameworks, and jointly character- ize optimal taxes and nudges. Under some conditions, the optimal tax system is simple, in the sense that all tax rates are equal. For instance, all goods are optimally taxed at the same rate (or a few di¤erent rates), and the optimal income tax features just one marginal tax rate (or a few di¤erent marginal tax rates). This contrasts with the traditional optimal tax results, that generically features complex tax systems that depend on the details of the environment. Finally, we explore the Diamond-Mirrlees productive e¢ ciency result and the Atkinson-Stiglitz uniform commodity taxation proposition, and ?nd that they are more likely to fail with behavioral agents

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 9 June 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LETURCQ Marion (INED) : Fertility and Labour Supply: New Evidence from the UK

• Tuesday 2 June 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  BIONDI Yuri (CNRS) : Inequality and the Financial Accumulation Process: A Computational Economic Analysis of Income and Wealth Dynamics

• Tuesday 12 May 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LIBOIS François (Centre of Research in the Economics of Development - CRED - Namur) : Households in times of war: Adaptation Strategies during the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal

  Abstract

  Households in times of war modify their behaviour. We identify short-term adaptation strategies of rural households in Nepal to different violence level during the Maoist insurgency. Using rich household level data collected before, during and after the war combined with time and geo-localized information on conflict related casualties, we show that economic opportunities outside agriculture decline with almost no compensation in agriculture. Out-migration is especially important for high castes. On the consumption side, food expenditures are stable while education and health expenses went down. In the long-run, out-migration and its associated remittances appears as a bounty for more severely affected area.

• Tuesday 5 May 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  DAVID Géraldine (Université Libre de Bruxelles, CEB & Tilburg University, CentER) : Is art really a safe-haven? Evidence from the First World War in France

  Abstract

  During crisis art is often considered as a safe haven both by the scientific literature and the financial advisors. For example, during WWII art markets encountered a massive boom in occupied countries. This paper questions this vision of art as a safe investment providing evidence that art has not always supplied a safe investing way during crisis. To do so it constructs, on basis of an original database of 22,000 entries, an art price index for the French art market during WWI and the postwar period in France (1911-1925). . The results show that the WWII boom mostly reflected the specificities of the occupation economy imposed by the Nazis. Indeed during WWI artworks underperformed gold, real-estate, bonds and stocks in terms of risk-return performances. This underperformance can be explained by several peculiarities of the market. Investors tended to prefer cheap artworks and old masters during WWI as these were less volatile at the time

• Tuesday 21 April 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  HEMOUS David (INSEAD) : Innovation and Top Income Inequality

  Co-author(s) : Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Antonin Bergeaud and Richard Blundell

  Abstract

  In this paper we use cross-state panel data to show a positive and significant correlation between various measures of innovativeness and top income inequality in the United States over the past decades. Yet, the correlation between innovativeness and non-top income inequality appears to be negative and/or non-significant. Two distinct instrumentation strategies suggest that this correlation (partly) reflects a causality from innovativeness to top income inequality, and the effect is significant: for example, when measured by the number of patent per capita, innovativeness accounts on average across US states for around 17% of the total increase in the top 1% income share between 1975 and 2010. Next, we show that the positive effects of innovation on the top 1% income share are dampened in states with higher lobbying intensity. Finally, from cross-section regressions performed at the CZ level, we find that: (i) innovativeness is positively correlated with upward social mobility; (ii) the positive correlation between innovativeness and social mobility, is driven mainly by entrant innovators and less so by incumbent innovators, and it is dampened in states with higher lobbying intensity. Overall, our findings vindicate the Schumpeterian view whereby the rise in top income shares is partly related to innovation-led growth, where innovation itself fosters social mobility at the top through creative destruction.

• Tuesday 14 April 2015 12:30-13:30

  VALFORT Marie-Anne (PSE - Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne University) : Religious discrimination in the French labour market

• Tuesday 7 April 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  COULOMB Renaud (LSE) : The Grey Paradox: How Fossil-fuels Owners Can Benefit >From Carbon Taxation.

  Abstract

  This paper studies the distributional impacts of optimal carbon taxation on fossil-fuels owners. We show that optimal carbon taxation can increase the profits of owners of a carbon-emitting exhaustible resource. Such phenomenon contrasts with claims from fossil-fuels owners -especially from OPEC member countries- that carbon taxation will undermine their profits. We build a theoretical model of resource extraction where a polluting exhaustible resource competes with a dirtier abundant resource and a clean backstop. The atmospheric CO2 concentration has to be kept under a carbon ceiling and the optimal extraction path is decentralized by a carbon tax. As the carbon ceiling is tightened, the exhaustible-resource rent, and thus profits, is partly captured by the tax levier (the "capture effect"), but the dirtier resource is made less competitive (the "competition effect"). We determine conditions under which profits increase as the ceiling falls. The role of resource endowments, pollution contents, extraction costs and demand elasticity is analyzed. Calibrating the model for the transportation sector, we find that limiting cumulative new emissions in this sector between 322.7 and 637.5 GtCO2 increases profits of conventional-oil owners.

• Tuesday 24 March 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  YAKOVLEV Evgeny (HSE - Moscou) : The Causal effect of Serving in the Army on Health: Evidence from Regression Kink Design and Russian Data

  Co-author(s) : David Card

  Abstract

  The paper estimates the causal effect of serving in the Russian Army on health. We explore a kink in the year-of-birth profile of the probability of compulsory service that happened as a result of the demilitarization process initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev. We find that serving in the Russian Army significantly increases rates of alcohol consumption and smoking ; it also results in a higher chance of getting hepatitis and tuberculosis, related to alcohol consumption and smoking chronic diseases and general health issues.

• Tuesday 17 March 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  NOVOKMET Filip (PSE) : From public to private capital in Central-Eastern Europe

• Tuesday 10 March 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  UEDA Kozo (School of Political Science and Economics Waseda University ) : Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective

  Co-authors : Mitsuru Katagiri and Hideki Konishi

  Abstract

  Negative correlations between inflation and demographic aging were observed across developed nations recently. To understand the phenomenon from a politico-economic perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model. In the model, successive short-lived governments choose income tax rates and bond issues considering the political influence of existing generations and the policy response of future governments. The model sheds new light on the traditional debate about the burden of national debt. Because of price adjustments, the accumulation of government debt does not become a burden on future generations. Our analysis reveals that the effects of aging depend on its causes. Aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. Numerical simulation shows that aging over the past 40 years in Japan generated deflation of about 0.6 percentage points annually.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 3 March 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  CAGE Julia (Sciences Po) : Newspapers in Times of Low Adversiting Revenues

  Co-author(s) : Charles Angelucci (Columbia University)

  Abstract

  We investigate theoretically and empirically the determinants of second-degree price discrimination in two-sided markets. We build a model in which a newspaper must attract both readers and advertisers. Readers are uncertain as to their future benefit from reading, and heterogeneous in their taste for reading. Advertisers are heterogeneous in their outside option, taste for subscribers, and taste for occasional buyers. To estimate empirically the effect of the advertisers¹ side of the industry on price discrimination on the readers¹ side, we use a ³quasi-natural experiment². We exploit the introduction of advertisement on French Television in 1968, which we treat as a negative shock on adverting revenues of daily national newspapers (treated group), but not on daily local newspapers (control group). We build a new dataset on French local newspapers between 1960 and 1974 and perform a Differences-in-Differences analysis. We find robust evidence of increased price discrimination as a result of a drop in advertising revenues.

• Tuesday 17 February 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  MENYHERT Balint (Central European University) : Economic growth spurred by diversity: Central Europe at the turn of the 20th century

• Tuesday 27 January 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  HOUNGBONON Georges Vivien (PSE) : The effect of entry and merger on the nonlinear price of mobile telecommunications services

  Abstract

  This paper evaluates the impact of a change in the market structure on nonlinear prices. Based on the entry of Free in France and the merger of Orange in Austria, it finds that neither the entry, nor the merger affects the access price of mobile telecommunications services. However, the entry in the French market has raised the unit price of mobile data services; contrary to the merger in the Austrian market. These results are driven by a bundling discount on the unit price which is lower following the entry; but higher following the merger. They are consistent with the fact that the entry of the fourth mobile operator in France has delayed the investment in new technologies; contrary to the merger from four to three operators in Austria.

• Tuesday 20 January 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  ROGER Muriel (PSE, Banque de France) : Income and Wealth Distributions in the Euro Area

  Co-author(s) : Luc Arrondel and Frédérique Savignac

• Tuesday 13 January 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  GURGAND Marc (PSE) : Ready for Boarding? The effects of a boarding school for disadvantaged students.

  Co-author(s) : Luc Behaghel (PSE) et Clément de Chaisemartin (Warwick)

  Abstract

  Boarding schools substitute school to home, but little is known on the effects this substitution produces on students. We present results of an experiment in which seats in a boarding school for disadvantaged students were randomly allocated. Boarders enjoy better studying conditions than control students. However, they start outperforming control students in mathematics only two years after admission, and this effect mostly comes from strong students. Boarders initially experience lower levels of well-being but then adjust. This suggests that substituting school to home is disruptive: only strong students benefit from the school, once they have adapted to their new environment.

• Tuesday 6 January 2015 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  DE SOUSA Jose (U. Paris Sud, RITM & Sciences Po, Paris, LIEPP) : Labor Mobility and Racial Discrimination

  CXo-author(s) : Pierre Deschamps (Sciences Po, Paris)

  Abstract

  This paper assesses the impact of labor mobility on racial discrimination. We present an equilibrium search model that reveals an inverted U-shaped relationship between labor mobility and race-based wage differentials. We explore this relationship empirically with an exogenous mobility shock on the European soccer labor market. The Bosman ruling by the European Court of Justice in 1995 lifted restrictions on soccer player mobility. Using a panel of all clubs in the English first division from 1981 to 2008, we compare the pre- and post-Bosman ruling market to identify the causal effect of intensified mobility on race-based wage differentials. Consistent with a taste-based explanation, we find evidence that increasing labor market mobility decreases racial discrimination.

• Tuesday 2 December 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  VAN EFFENTERRE Clémentine (PSE) : Understanding gender gap in science: evidence from France

  Co-author(s) : Thierry Ly et Thomas Breda

• Tuesday 25 November 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  GADENNE Lucie (Department of Economics - University College London ) : Non-linear commodity taxation in developing countries: theory and an application to India

  Abstract

  Many developing countries simultaneously tax commodities and subsidize them up to a quota level through ration shops. This particular combination of taxes and subsidies plays an important role in the public budgets of developing countries; India spends 1 GDP point on its ration shop system and levies more than 60% of its revenues through commodity taxes. This paper first studies under what conditions this tax schedule - de facto convex commodity taxes - is welfare improving compared to standard linear taxes once we take into account the relevant characteristics of developing countries. These are i) limited government capacity to observe household incomes and ii) market fragmentation. I find that an inequality-averse government would set convex taxes on a wide range of goods to redistribute and to partially insure households against price risk. Welfare gains to introducing convex taxes are highest for normal goods that most poor households consume. I then take the model to Indian data and find that combining ration shops and commodity taxes is welfare improving for rice, wheat and kerosene, but not for sugar. Setting convex taxes on other goods not currently in the Indian ration shop system would not help the government redistribute across households but would yield small insurance gains.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 18 November 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  GOUPILLE Jonathan (PSE) : Behavioral responses to inheritance tax:Evidence from notches in France

  Abstract

  This paper investigates behavioral responses to inheritance taxation in an inter-temporal framework. Our empirical strategy exploits original quasi-experimental variation created by the French preferential tax scheme for transmission through life insurance. The analysis is based on a unique longitudinal data set of life insurance policies over the period 2003-2013. We obtain two main results. First, we document large bunching at age 70 leading to important timing responses in the short term but modest inter-temporal shifting in the medium term. Second, we find compelling evidence of a negative effect of inheritance taxation on life insurance accumulation at the individual level. Consistent with our estimated elasticity of taxable bequest, we find that optimal inheritance tax rate might be as large as 55%–70%. Our results can be rationalized by an inter-temporal model of transfer taxation with two assets. This model is able to take into account the different behavioral responses to taxation occurring over time and between assets. In this model, individuals face a trade-off between accumulating an asset A for fiscal purposes or enjoying greater utility from an asset B during their lifetime in return for a higher tax burden at death.

• Tuesday 4 November 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  PHILIPPE Arnaud (Paris 1 - CREST) : "No hatred or malice, fear or affection”: How do jurors think?

  Co-author(s) : Aurélie Ouss

  Abstract

  How does the media affect judicial decisions? We look at the effect of television broadcasting of crime and justice on sentencing decisions, by juries of civilians and professional judges. We find that news on the day before a trial affects sentencing of civilian juries: sentences are longer after coverage of crimes, and shorter after stories on judicial errors. However, this effect does not last over time, and we find no effect of media coverage on professional judges. This indicates that perception of gravity could be reference-dependent in a very contextual manner, rather than jurors reflecting social currents that would also be affected by longer-term media. This paper contributes to expanding the analysis of how the content of media affects public opinion to judges’ and jurors’ choice; and brings to the field questions of extraneous factors in judicial decisions.

• Tuesday 14 October 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  ETILE Fabrice (PSE) : Heterogeneity, Censoring and Endogeneity in Estimates of Response to Soft Drink Tax

• Tuesday 7 October 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  ZIPARO Roberta (PSE) : The Impact of the Matrimonial Regime on Female Education and Labor Supply: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in France

• Tuesday 30 September 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment A, rez-de-chaussée, salle 2

  ALGAN Yann (Sciences Po) : Social Motives and Organizations: Experimental Evidence from Peer-Production

  Abstract

  Most organizations rely not only on monetary incentives, but also on a variety of other motives to elicit effort and encourage production. We rely on the community of open source software (OSS) developers to study how heterogeneous motivations affect the type and the intensity of individual contributions and how it affects success of the projects. Our primary focus is on the role of social motivations, which we elicit experimentally on a stratified sample of 1,194 OSS developers. Our initial finding is that success is positively related to the proportion of altruists, in particular in the role of administrators, and the proportion of reciprocators, in the role of developers. We propose a mechanism underlying these facts and empirical evidence consistent with this story.

• Tuesday 23 September 2014 12:30-13:30

  MOULIN Hervé (University of Glasgow) : Tuition fees and social segregation: lessons from a natural experiment at the University of Paris 9-Dauphine

  David Flacher (Université Paris 13 Sorbonne Paris Cité – CEPN (CNRS UMR 7234)) and Hugo Harari-Kermadec (ENS Cachan – IDHES (CNRS UMR 8533))

  Abstract

  Using a natural experiment (a sharp rise in certain fees at the University of Paris 9-Dauphine), we study the impact of fees on students’ pathways and outcomes. We apply an optimal matching method to the national database of student registrations (SISE) to define a typology of pathways. We then use a non-ordered multinomial logit model to evaluate the impact of the rise in fees on the types of pathways selected by the university. We show that there is a significant impact on these pathways. The fee increase reduces geographic and social mobility, thereby accentuating phenomena of social segregation. Furthermore, contrary to what some of the studies on fees assert, the rise does not appear to encourage greater effort: we find no impact on the graduation success rate.

• Tuesday 9 September 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  TERRIER Camille (PSE) : Giving a Little Help to Girls? Evidence on Grades Discrimination and its Effect on Students Achievement.

  Abstract

  This paper tests whether we observe sex-discrimination in teachers’ grades, and whether such biases affect pupils’ achievement during the school year. I use a unique dataset containing standardized tests, teachers’ attributed grades, and pupil’s behavior, all three at different periods in time. Based on double-differences, the identification of the gender bias in teachers’ grades suggests that (i) girls benefit from a substantive positive discrimination in math but not in French, (ii) girls’ better behavior than boys, and their initial lower achievement in math explain less than 10% of this gender bias. Second, I use the heterogeneity in teachers’ discriminatory behavior to show that classes in which teachers present a high degree of discrimination in favor of girls are also classes in which girls tend to progress more over the school year compared to boys.

• Tuesday 24 June 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LE BARBANCHON Thomas (CREST ) : Partial Unemployment insurance

  Abstract

  Partial unemployment insurance enables UI claimants to take up small jobs and keep part of their unemployment benefits while working. We document that claimants in the US actually bunch at kink points of the partial UI schedule. This enables us to estimate their elasticity of earned income to marginal tax rate, a key parameter of the optimal form of the partial UI schedule. To take into account dynamic aspects of the partial UI schedule, we build a dynamic model of labor supply while on claim. This model shows how to extend standard static bunching estimator to our dynamic setting. We then study the dynamics of bunching along the claim.

• Tuesday 17 June 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  GARBINTI Bertrand (Insee-Crest, PSE) : Living Standards after Divorce: Do Public and Private Transfers Balance Gender Economic Inequalities ?

  Co-author(s) : Carole Bonnet (Ined) and Anne Solaz (Ined)

• Tuesday 10 June 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  IMBERT Clément (Oxford) : Short-term Migration and Rural Workfare Programs: Evidence from India

  Abstract

  Via short-term migration, rural workers gain access to better earnings opportunities outside of the village, but also incur significant monetary and non monetary costs. We use survey data from a high out-migration area in rural India to document the effect of a large public works program on short-term migration. Using cross-state variation in public employment provision for identification and controlling for the demand for work, we find that participation to the program significantly reduces short-term migration. Nationally representative data corroborate this finding. We also document that workers engaged both in short-term migration and public employment report wanting more public employment, despite the fact that earnings outside of the village are nearly two times higher than earnings from the program. We estimate a structural model of migration decisions which suggests that the flow cost of migration may be as high as 59% of daily earnings outside of the village.

• Tuesday 3 June 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  BOUGUEN Adrien (PSE) : Giving content to teacher training programs : Evidence from a non-randomized experiment in French preschools

  Abstract

  General statements on the eciency of teacher training programs is unable to provide valuable information to improve the supply of education. In this article, I look at the impact of a very specic training program given to last year of kindergarten teachers on reading skills. Implemented in France in 2010/2011 in some preschools, the impact of this training program can be assessed using achievement scores collected at the student level. Yet, such approach is compromised if teachers were selected into the program (teacher selection) or if schools dropped out from the experiment (attrition bias). Controlling for these potential sources of bias, I show that while attrition seem not to have biased the results, controlling for some teacher characteristics substantially reduce the estimation, suggesting that more experienced and skilled teachers rst benet from such program. Even when accounting for these corrections, treatment impact remain positive and signicant (+.094 sd on an overall score), consistent with the literature, and is suggested to reduce the gap between weaker and stronger students. Besides, this training program is shown to be a cost-eective solution to improve teacher impact on reading skills.

• Tuesday 27 May 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  PAGE Lionel (Queensland University of Technology) : Estimating Preferences for Fairness: a New Empirical Strategy within a Unifed Theoretical Framework

  Daniel Mueller (University of Mannheim)

  Abstract

  This paper illustrates the nexus between Social Choice Theory, the Social Preferences literature (the study of other-regarding preferences in behavioral game theory) and decision making under risk, all of which study preferences over income distributions. Motivated by this connection we introduce a new functional for capturing preferences for fairness based on rank-dependent expected utility, which we call General Fairness Preferences, that includes most other proposals as special cases. We structurally estimate this functional using an incentivized laboratory experiment in which individuals decide over income distributions in three different treatments. In the first treatment subjects decide over risky prospects whose outcomes are only pay-off relevant for themselves. In the second treatment subjects decide over income distributions under the veil of ignorance, that is over an income distribution for the whole (laboratory) population without knowing their own position beforehand. Lastly, individuals make decisions while knowing their own position in advance. We introduce another novelty to the experimental economics literature as we generally allow for ten distinct lottery outcomes using a novel intuitively appealing lottery design. Our results allow us to disentangle risk aversion and social preferences as well as to test whether decision makers follow certain principles of fairness typically assumed in Social Choice theory.

• Tuesday 20 May 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  PONTHIERE Grégory (ENS - PSE) : Fair retirement under risky lifetime

  Co-author(s) : Marc Fleurbaey, Marie-Louise Leroux and Pierre Pestieau

• Tuesday 13 May 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  ROSSI Pauline (PSE) : Sons as Widowhood Insurance: Evidence from Senegal

  Co-author(s) : Sylvie Lambert

  Abstract

  Exploiting original data from a Senegalese household survey, we provide evidence that fertility choices are partly driven by women's needs for widowhood insurance. We use a duration model of birth intervals to show that women most exposed to the risk of widowhood intensify their fertility until they get a son. Insurance through sons entails substantial health costs : short birth spacing raises maternal and infant mortality rates.

• Tuesday 6 May 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  SAKALLI Seyhun Orcan (PSE) : Coexistence, Polarization, and Development: Armenian Legacy in Modern Turkey

  Abstract

  This paper investigates the impact of historical presence of an ethno-religious minority group, Armenians, on long-term socio-economic and political development in Turkey. Presence of Armenians in Turkey ended as the Ottoman government deportated and persecuted Armenians in 1915-1916 under the pretext of an Armenian plan of insurgence during WWI. I employ Instrumental Variables (IV) strategy and instrument cross-sectional variation in the spatial distribution of Armenians in 1914 with travel distance to Mount Ararat, which is of particular significance for Armenians. I find that residents of localities with a greater historical presence of Armenians support Islamist parties more and perform religious activities more today, compared to residents of other localities. I also find that residents of these localities are less literate, less likely to complete primary school, and poorer today. I provide evidence in favor of the following mechanism: coexistence of different religious groups led to polarization, and perceived threat posed by Christians strengthened the identification of Muslims with their in-group identity, Islam. Additional evidence suggests that a deeper attachment of local Muslims to Islam due to historical Armenian presence translated itself to lower demand for education after secularization of education in 1920s. I test for and rule out alternative mechanisms such as inflow of migrants into former Armenian localities, increased land gini due to deportation of Armenians, and occupational choices of Muslims due to competition with Armenians.

• Tuesday 29 April 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  MARTIN Daniel (PSE) : Bayesian Revealed Preferences

  Abstract

  In this paper I identify a condition on stochastic choices from budget sets, called Bayesian GARP (BGARP), which characterizes the purchases of consumers who base their decisions on noisy signals of price. For a balanced panel of grocery purchases, I show that while most households fail GARP, BGARP is satisfied. In addition, I show that BGARP is restrictive for this data set.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 April 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  PATNAM Manasa (CREST) : Risk Sharing with (Dis)Aggregate Shocks

  Co-author(s) : Emmanouil Kitsios

  Abstract

  In this paper we examine conditions under which optimal risk sharing may not fully insure individuals against idiosyncratic shocks to their endowments or income, even when markets are complete. We analyze the benchmark risk-sharing model, but allow for the possibility that idiosyncratic shocks can induce fluctuations in aggregate resources, affecting, in this way, the Pareto optimal allocation of consumption. In particular, we show that idiosyncratic shocks affect consumption under optimal risk-sharing, when endowments are drawn from a class of power law distributions or when output is produced through input supply networks with star-shape or scale-free architecture. Under these conditions, we document two important features of optimal risk sharing. First, the effect of idiosyncratic risk on consumption growth is heterogeneous, depending on each agent’s contribution to the aggregate resource, and, second, risk sharing involves an exposure to systemic risk that is composite of the undiversified components of idiosyncratic shocks. Additionally, we show that the frequently used empirical tests of risk-sharing which ignore the distributional aspects of income and the network structure of production, may suffer from a specification bias when idiosyncratic shocks do not dissipate in the aggregate. We offer empirical evidence to show that individual consumption growth is affected by a systemic component of risk, such as, for example, the shocks to the top percentiles of the income distribution. Our results have important implications for empirical studies of risk-sharing carried out at the individual, household and national level, irrespective of the size of the reference group, be it the household, the village, or the country.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 April 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  NEUMANN Michael (DIW Berlin) : Earnings Responses to Social Security Contributions: Evidence from Two German Administrative Data Sets

  Abstract

  This paper exploits the discontinuities induced by earnings caps for social security contributions (SSC) in Germany to analyse the effect of SSC on gross labour earnings. Two complementary approaches based on two administrative data sets are conducted. First, I exploit an increase of the East German earnings cap of health and long-term care insurance as a natural experiment. In order to estimate short-term economic incidence a difference-in-differences approach is used to evaluates the effects on yearly changes in gross earnings. Second, I use the kinks in the budget set and cost function to identify labour supply and demand elasticities as well as economic incidence of SSC by analyzing cross-sectional earnings distributions similar to the bunching method. Both approaches robustly find that the burden of SSC is shared equally between employers and employees. I also find that labour supply and demand elasticities are low. Combined, both findings are consistent with a competitive labour market model.

• Tuesday 8 April 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  CASSAN Guilhem (University of Namur) : Affirmative Action, Education and Gender: Evidence from India

  Abstract

  We use a unique natural experiment in order to assess the impact of positive discrimination in India on targeted groups' educational attainment. We take advantage of the harmonization of the Scheduled Castes lists within the Indian states taking place in 1976 to measure the increase of the educational attainment of the new beneciaries. We show that this policy had heterogenous eects across genders, with males beneting from the SC status and females remaining essentially unaected. We show that this translated into a dierential increase in literacy and numeracy, and propose a novel method to measure the latter

• Tuesday 1 April 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  ESTRADA Ricardo (PSE) : Rules rather than Discretion: Teacher Hiring and Rent Extraction"

  Abstract

  There is mounting research evidence on both the importance of teacher quality in the production of learning and on the difficulty of identifying who actually is (can be) a good teacher. The participation of current teachers in the selection of new teachers may ease this informational problem if the former have superior information about teacher quality. However, a simple principal-agent model can show that asymmetric information between administrators and teachers may lead to an agency problem with rent extraction if current teachers have an objective function with different arguments from teacher quality. In this study, I use a recent policy reform in Mexico to evaluate the effect on student outcomes of receiving a teacher hired through a standardized test versus one hired in a discretionary process with strong involvement from the teachers' union. My difference-in-differences results indicate that the allocation of test-hired teachers reduces exam cheating in junior-secondary schools and increases student achievement. I also find that joint committees of state officials and union representatives allocate the discretionary-hired teachers to schools in more "desirable" localities. Taken together, these results suggest the existence of an agency problem with potential rent-extraction that the use of a hiring rule can mitigate.

• Tuesday 25 March 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  HOSHI Takeo (Stanford & NBER) : DEFYING GRAVITY : CAN JAPANESE SOVEREIGN DEBT CONTINUE TOINCREASE WITHOUT A CRISIS ?

  Co-auteur : Takatoshi Ito

• Tuesday 18 March 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LEGRAND Maxime (PSE) : Firms’ efficiency and privatization – New evidence from France

  Abstract

  The question of efficiency and ownership had been the center of numerous debates in the economy. This issue is even more important when the public versus private ownership is in question. The general belief is that private ownership is associated with better performance due to higher capital investment, higher incentives for workers through equity participation and better services at a lower price for consumers. In this paper, we show that, for the French case, the impact of privatization of a firm’s performances depends on the firm’s characteristics such as its sector and that private ownership is not always accompanied by higher economic outcomes.

• Tuesday 11 March 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LY Son Thierry (PSE) : Segregation and Mobility

  Co-author(s) : Arnaud Riegert (PSE - INSEE - CREST)

  Abstract

  Standard segregation indices measure the degree of separation between social groups at a given point of time. But if individuals move between different environments over time, segregation is not as strong as it seems from a cross-sectional perspective. For the first time, this paper examines the implications of mobility on the measurement of segregation. By analogy to the literature on income mobility, we discuss the theoretical meaning of mobility in the case of environment inequality. We propose a simple, intuitive mobility index and discuss its properties. In particular, we show that "long-term" segregation – the level of segregation measured using time-averaged social environments – has a lower bound that increases with the average instantaneous segregation. In the second part of the paper, we provide an application on segregation in French middle schools, using a unique exhaustive and longitudinal dataset. We compare standard measures of instantaneous segregation and long-term segregation that account for mobility between classrooms over years.

• Tuesday 4 March 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  BEASLEY Elizabeth (Sciences Po) : The Long-Term Impact of Social Skills Training at School Entry : A randomized controlled trial

  Abstract

  Early childhood social skills are strong predictors of adult socio-economic success, but little is known about how to improve these social skills, in particular among children the most at risk of engaging in criminal behavior or failing at self-sufficiency as adults. We use data from a long-term randomized evaluation of a childhood social skills training program in Montreal to answer this question. We match detailed data on behavior from adolescence with administrative criminal and educational records and self-reported socio-economic outcomes. As adults, the subjects in the treated group are about 30% less likely to have a criminal record, 50% more likely to have a secondary diploma, have significantly stronger labor market performance than the non-treated group. Self-reported data indicate that the treated group is 16% more likely to be active fulltime in either work or school during ages 17-16, and 68% more likely to have ever belonged to a civic or social group. We distinguish the different potential channels through which this intervention operates, and provide evidence that inattention is explains a substantial portion of increased secondary completion, delinquent behavior explains a substantial portion of reductions in adult criminality, and that generalized trust explains a substantial portion of the improved economic outcomes and social capital. Using conservative assumptions in a simple framework, we estimate overall rate of return of this program in terms of increased wages is 450%, implying that every $1 invested yields $4.5 in benefits.

• Tuesday 25 February 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  *

• Tuesday 18 February 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  BERGERON Augustin (PSE) : Top Incomes and Structural Change: Evidence from India Before 1922

  Co-authors: Facundo Alvaredo & Guilhem Cassan

• Tuesday 11 February 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  FABRE Brice (PSE) : Political alignment between municipalities and counties in France : the effect on the allocation of grants

• Tuesday 4 February 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  ESCUDERO Verónica (International Labour Organization) : Are active labour market policies effective in activating and integrating low-skilled individuals? An international comparison

• Tuesday 28 January 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  HARNOSS Johann (PSE) : Immigration and support for redistribution

  co-author(s) : Alberto Alesina (Harvard University)and Hillel Rapoport (PSE)

  Abstract

  We analyze the effect of immigration on the support for the welfare state in Europe. Using data for 29 European countries from the European Social Survey, we find that native workers lower their sup- port for redistribution if the share of immigration in their country (or occupation) is high. This effect is larger for individuals who hold negative views regarding immigration but is smaller for immigrants that are culturally closer to natives and come from richer origin countries. It also varies with native workers’ and immigrants’ education. In turn, more educated natives support more redistribution if immigrants are also relatively educated. This also holds for alternative measures of education such as job specific human capital and measures of task intensity. To address endogeneity concerns, we restrict identification to within country and within country-occupation variation and also instrument immigration using a gravity model. We interpret our results as indicative of group loyalty and labor market effects. The partial compensation of these two effects suggests that further immigration to Europe will only modestly decrease support for the welfare state in Europe.

• Tuesday 21 January 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  HERGUEUX Jérôme (Harvard & Sciences Po) : Cooperation in a Peer Production Economy - Experimental Evidence from Wikipedia

  Co-author(s) : Y. Algan, Y. Benkler & M. Fuster-Morell

  Abstract

  The impressive success of peer production – a large-scale collaborative model of production primarily based on voluntary contributions – is difficult to explain through the assumptions of standard economic theory. The aim of this paper is to study the prosocial foundations of cooperation in this new peer production economy. We provide the first comprehensive field test of existing economic theories of prosocial motives for contributing to real-world public goods. We use an online experiment coupled with observational data to elicit social preferences within a diverse sample of 850 Wikipedia contributors, and seek to use to those measures to predict subjects’ field contributions to the Wikipedia project. We find that subjects’ field contributions to Wikipedia are strongly related to their level of reciprocity in a conditional Public Goods game and in a Trust game and to their revealed preference for social image within the Wikipedia community, but not to their level of altruism either in a standard or in a directed Dictator game. Our results have important theoretical and practical implications, as we show that reciprocity and social image are both strong motives for sustaining cooperation in peer production environments, while altruism may not be.

• Tuesday 14 January 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  MURTIN Fabrice (OECD) : Beyond GDP : Is There a Law of One Shadow Price ?

  Co-author(s): Romina Boarini, Juan Cordoba & Marla Ripoll

  Abstract

  This paper builds a welfare measure encompassing household disposable income, unemployment and longevity, while using two different sets of “shadow prices” for non-income variables. The valuations of vital and unemployment risks estimated from life satisfaction data (“subjective shadow prices”) and those derived from model-based approaches and calibrated utility functions (“objective shadow prices”) are shown to be broadly consistent once a number of conditions are fulfilled. Subjective shadow prices appear to be inflated by the downward bias on the income variable in life satisfaction regressions conducted at the individual level, while the latter bias is largely removed when running regressions at the country level. On the other hand, objective shadow prices are typically underestimated as: i) the valuation of the unemployment risk is assumed to take place under the veil of ignorance (i.e. for a representative agent that has no information on her current or future unemployment situation); ii) the standard model relies on a Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility function, which has no specific relative risk aversion parameter for unemployment and vital risks; iii) the Value of Statistical Life that is used in standard approaches pertains to the adult lifespan while life expectancy at birth covers the entire lifetime.

• Tuesday 7 January 2014 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  HUILLERY Elise (Sciences Po) : Low Social Background, Low Aspirations at School? Evidence from French Teenagers

• Tuesday 17 December 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  PISTOLESI Nicolas (TSE-GREMAQ) : The effect of advising students at college entrance: Evidence from a French university reform

• Tuesday 10 December 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  MILANOVIC Branko (World Bank Group / University of Maryland) : Global income distribution: from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession

  Co-author(s): Christoph Lakner

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 3 December 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  TO Maxime (Sciences Po) : ccess and Returns to Education and the Ethnic Wage Gap in France

• Tuesday 26 November 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  GURIEV Sergei (New Economic School and Sciences Po) : Effect of Income on Trust: Evidence from the 2009 Crisis in Russia

  Co-author(s): Maxim Ananyev

  Abstract

  In this paper, we use a natural experiment to identify a relationship between income and trust. We use a panel dataset on Russia where GDP experienced a 8% drop in 2009 (the largest decline in G20 during the crisis). The effect of the crisis had been very uneven among Russian regions because of their different industrial structure inherited from the Soviet times. We find that the regions that specialize in producing capital goods and natural resources in 1989, had a more substantial income decline during the crisis. The 1989 variation in the industrial structure therefore allows creating an instrument for the change in income between 2008 and 2009. After instrumenting average regional income we find that the effect of income on trust is statistically and economically signicant. Controlling for conventional determinants of trust, we show that 10 percent decrease in income is associated with 5 percentage point decrease in the level of trust (the share of respondents saying that most people can be trusted). Given that the average level of trust in Russia was only 18 per cent in 2009, this magnitude is substantial. We also find that the effect of income on trust is concentrated in the subsamples of poorer, middle-aged and less educated individuals.

• Tuesday 19 November 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  CHABE-FERRET Bastien (PSE) : Socioeconomic Characteristics, Fertility Norms and the Black-White Fertility Gap in the US

  Abstract

  In this article, I examine the large Black / White fertility gap in the US. I question the "compositional argument" according to which differences in socioeconomic characteristics would be the main driver of this gap. Indeed, once controlled for education, other characteristics such as income, employment and marital status do not help to close the gap. I therefore test whether the difference could stem from the fact that individuals inherit of race-specic fertility norms. I show that Black women who were born in a state where past cohorts of Black women had a high fertility rate tend to have more children. Moreover I have found that this effect diminishes as education increases. The transmission of fertility norms therefore seems to be a good candidate to explain racial differences in fertility in the US, as it is consistent with larger differences for less educated individuals.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 12 November 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LEHMANN Etienne (Université Panthéon Assas & CREST ) : Tax Me If You Can! Optimal Nonlinear Income Tax between Competing Governments

  Co-author(s) : Laurent Simula & Alain Trannoy

  Abstract

  We investigate how potential tax-driven migrations modify the Mirrlees income tax schedule when two countries play Nash. The social objective is the maximin and preferences are quasilinear in income. Individuals differ both in skills and migration costs, which are continuously distributed. We derive the optimal marginal income tax rates at the equilibrium, extending the Diamond-Saez formula. The theory and numerical simulations on the US case show that the level and the slope of the semi-elasticity of migration on which we lack empirical evidence are crucial to derive the shape of optimal marginal income tax. Our simulations show that potential migrations result in a welfare drop between 0.4% and 5.3% for the worst-off and an average gain between 18.9% and 29.3% for the top 1%.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 5 November 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  HEMET Camille (Sciences Po) : Local Diversity and Employment Prospects

  Abstract

  This work aims at determining whether and how the level of diversity of a community in terms of origins affects its members’ employment prospects. Relying on detailed data from the French Labor Force Survey, I measure diversity at two geographic levels: the neighborhood and the local labor market. The correlation between diversity and employment varies accordingly: it is negative at the local level but positive at a larger geographic level. I then tackle the endogenous location selection issue in two ways. Regarding neighborhood diversity, I adopt the strategy developed by Bayer et al. (2008) which takes advantage of the very precise localization of the data. Concerning employment zone diversity, I rely on a more standard instrumental variable approach. After correcting for endogeneity, the positive large scale effect of diversity is driven down to zero, revealing that it was mostly due to self-selection, while the negative effect of local diversity is reinforced. Another key result is that diversity in terms of nationalities (a proxy for cultural diversity) matters more than diversity based on parents’ origins (a proxy for ethnic diversity). These results reveal that local diversity may act as a barrier to communication, preventing job information transmission, and hence reducing employment probability.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 October 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  HENRIET Fanny (PSE) : A stylized applied energy-economy model for France

  Co-author(s): N. Maggiar & K. Schubert

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 October 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  NOVOKME Filip (PSE) : Top incomes in Eastern Europe: the comparison of Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia in the interwar period

• Tuesday 15 October 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  ZUBER Stéphane (CERSES - CNRS and Université Paris Descartes) : Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change

  Co-author(s): Antoine Bommier & Bruno Lanz

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 8 October 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LASLIER Jean-François (PSE) : About political polarization in Africa: An experiment on Approval Voting in Benin

  Co-author(s) : Patoinnéwendé Alda Kabre, Karine Van der Straeten & Leonard Wantchekon

  Abstract

  Uninominal majoritarian voting systems force voters to "choose sides", which might possibly be a factor of exacerbation of political, social, ethnic or religious divisions. Elaborating on this idea, we wanted to know if, in Africa, voters would be willing to vote "by approval", that is with the ability to approve of/vote for several candidates. This article reports on such an experiment, conducted in Benin on the day of the 2011 presidential election.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 1 October 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  RIEGERT Arnaud (PSE) : Persistent Classmates: How Familiarity with Peers Protects from Disruptive School Transitions

  Co-author(s): Son Thierry Ly

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 24 September 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  CHEUNG Diana (Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne) : Intergenerational persistence in China: from the perspective of food consumption

  Co-author(s): Lin Chen

  Abstract

  This article studies intergenerational persistence in China. We use data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey to estimate the intergenerational food consumption and intergenerational income elasticities in China (IFCE and IIE). We demonstrate that IFCE is a good indicator of intergenerational persistence when income data is insufficient to compute an accurate measure of permanent income. We find a particularly high IFCE (0.878) and a lower IIE (0.43), which is close to the one (0.47) estimated by Deng, Gustafsson and Li(2012). Parental food consumption greatly affects offspring food consumption and is homogeneous across individuals having different levels of education or who live in urban or rural areas. Finally, we also show that intergenerational linkages in consumption do not mainly result from the transmission of income but rather from the transmission of taste.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 17 September 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  LAAJAJ Rachid (PSE, INRA) : Savings, Subsidies, and Sustainable Food Security: A Field Experiment in Mozambique

  Co-author(s): Michael Carter et Dean Yang.

• Tuesday 10 September 2013 12:30-13:30

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8

  BEHAGHEL Luc (PSE) : Tax exemptions and rural development: Evidence from a quasi-experiment

  Co-author(s): Adrien Lorenceau & Simon Quantin

• Tuesday 25 June 2013 12:30-13:30

  VARELA Liliana (PSE) : Financial Liberalization, Competition and Productivity

• Tuesday 18 June 2013 12:30-13:30

  CAGE Julia (PSE & Havard University) : Trash Media: How Competition Affects Information

• Tuesday 11 June 2013 12:30-13:30

  JEDWAB Remi (George Washington University) : The Nature and Speed of Urbanization and Economic Development. New Historical Evidence from 40 Developing Countries

  Co-author(s): Luc Christiaensen & Marina Gindeslky

• Tuesday 4 June 2013 12:30-13:30

  ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE) : Historical Legacies in Contemporary Politics: Evidence from the Partitions of Poland

  Co-author(s): Irena Grosfeld

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 28 May 2013 12:30-13:30

  GURGAND Marc (PSE) : Adjusting your dreams? The effects of school and peers on dropout behavior

  Co-author(s): Dominique Goux & Eric Maurin

• Tuesday 21 May 2013 12:30-13:30

  GEEROLF François (SciencesPo) : Dynamic inefficiency and capital taxation

• Tuesday 14 May 2013 12:30-13:30

  TO Maxime (Sciences Po) : Will Sooner Be Better? The Impact of Early Preschool Enrollment on Cognitive and Noncognitive Achievement of Children

  Co-author(s): Denis Fougère & Olivier Filatriau

  Abstract

  In this paper we measure the effect of entering preelementary school at age 2 rather than 3 in France. Our identification strategy relies on ratios between the number of young children and the capacity of preelementary schools observed at the very local level. This information allows us to solve the endogeneity issue due to the potential correlation between unobserved determinants of early enrollment decision and children achievement. We measure this effect on schooling achievement in primary and lower secondary schools. We show that early enrollment in preelementary school improves cognitive and noncognitive skills at age six, and both literacy and numeracy from the third to the ninth grades.

• Tuesday 7 May 2013 12:30-13:30

  LAFFETER Quentin (ENS Lyon) : VAT reduction for restaurant services in France and its effect on consumption prices

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 30 April 2013 12:30-13:30

  BEHAGHEL Luc (PSE) : When anonymous resumes do not help Lakisha and Jamal. A field experiment with real candidates

  Co-author(s): Bruno Crépon & Thomas Le Barbanchon

• Tuesday 23 April 2013 12:30-13:30

  APOUEY Bénédicte (PSE) : Social interactions and malaria preventive behaviors in Sub-Saharan Africa

  Co-author(s): Picone Gabriel

• Tuesday 16 April 2013 12:30-13:30

  BRODEUR Abel (PSE, CEP & IZA) : Giving your Addiction a Second Chance

  Co-author(s): Alejandro Del Valle

  Abstract

  An unanswered question is whether addicts really reengage in their old addiction if they are confronted to their old environment. This paper gives a first piece of evidence that the environment associated with an addiction may trigger relapse after quitting. Our main contribution is to rely on smoking bans in bars, restaurants and workplaces which have been repealed over the last 25 years. Citizens of many cities, counties and the state of Maryland have seen their smoking bans repealed over this period of time. Our preliminary findings seem to indicate that repeals cause former addicts to reengage in their old addiction by reintroducing a situation in which agents are allowed to smoke. The effect is heterogeneous across the types of repeals though. Only repealing a ban in restaurant increases smoking prevalence.

• Tuesday 9 April 2013 12:30-13:30

  GARBINTI Bertrand (CREST, PSE) : Do the High-Income Households Save More?

  Co-author(s): Pierre Lamarche

• Tuesday 2 April 2013 12:30-13:30

  LEFRANC Arnaud (Université de Cergy-Pontoise) : Educational expansion, earnings compression and changes in intergenerational economic mobility: Evidence from French cohorts, 1931-1976

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 26 March 2013 12:30-13:30

  MARGOLIS David N. (CES) : A micro-simulation-based estimation of the effects of minimum wage changes in the Philippines

  Co-author(s): Ximena Del Carpio & Yuko Okamura

• Tuesday 19 March 2013 12:30-13:30

  VANDEN EYNDE Oliver (PSE) : Mining royalties and Maoist Violence: an Iron Logic?

• Tuesday 12 March 2013 12:30-13:30

  DAUVERGNE Roy (ENS) : Who pays indirect taxes? Estimations from a microsimulation model

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 5 March 2013 12:30-13:30

  CAROLI Eve (PSE) : Does job insecurity deteriorate health? A causal approach for Europe

  Co-author(s): Mathilde Godard

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 26 February 2013 12:30-13:30

  GOBILLON Laurent (PSE) : The Costs of Agglomeration: Land Prices in French Cities

  Co-author(s): Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 19 February 2013 12:30-13:30

  MARINESCU Ioana (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy) : Applications, Wages and Skills

  Co-author(s): Ronald Wolthoff.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 12 February 2013 12:30-13:30

  GODZINSKI Alexandre (CREST & PSE) : Incentive Effects of the Lifetime Bonus

• Tuesday 5 February 2013 12:30-13:30

  KURODA Sachiko (Waseda University) : Does downsizing take a toll on retained staff? An analysis of increased working hours during recessions using Japanese micro data

  Co-author(s): Yuji Genda & Souichi Ohta

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 January 2013 12:30-13:30

  DUPREY Thibaut (PSE) : Bank Ownership and Credit Cycle : the lower sensitivity of public bank lending to the business cycle

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 January 2013 12:30-13:30

  FREMEAUX Nicolas (PSE) : More or less married: the evolution of marriage and matrimonial property regimes in France

  Co-author(s): Marion Leturcq

• Tuesday 15 January 2013 12:30-13:30

  SCHWIENBACHER Armin (Université Lille Nord de France -- SKEMA Business School) : Suffrage Institutions and Financial Development: Does the Middle Class Have a Say?

  Co-author(s): Hans Degryse & Thomas Lambert

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 8 January 2013 12:30-13:30

  WREN-LEWIS Liam (PSE) : Accounting for changes in income inequality: Decomposition analyses for Great Britain, 1968-2009

  Co-author(s): Mike Brewer

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 18 December 2012 12:30-13:30

  LECHEVALIER Sébastien (EHESS) : Wage and Productivity Differentials in Japan: The Role of Labor Market Mechanisms

  Co-author(s): Yannick Kalantzis & Ryo Kambayashi

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 11 December 2012 12:30-13:30

  TOFT Christian (University of Kassel) : Pension Reform, Retirement Ages, and Labour Supply in the United States and the European Union (EU15) 1950-2060

  Co-author(s): Edward Whitehouse & Gary Burtless

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 4 December 2012 12:30-13:30

  BARROT Jean-Noel (HEC) : Financial Strength and Trade Credit Provision: Evidence from Trucking Firms

• Tuesday 27 November 2012 12:30-13:30

  GALBIATI Roberto (Sciences Po) : Earthquakes, Religion, and Institutional Change: Evidence from a Historical Experiment

  Co-author(s):Marianna Belloc & Francesco Drago

• Tuesday 20 November 2012 12:30-13:30

  GODECHOT Olivier (Centre Maurice Halbwachs) : Do contacts really help to get a job in the academic labor market ? A natural random experiment with French intellectuals at EHESS

• Tuesday 6 November 2012 12:30-13:30

  GORMSEN Christian (PSE) : Diasporas and Foreign Direct Investments

  Co-author(s): Mariola Pytlikova

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 30 October 2012 12:30-13:30

  RUEDA Valeria (Sciences-Po) : Newspapers and Political Participation: An Historical Approach

  Co-auteur(s) : Julia Cagé

• Tuesday 23 October 2012 12:30-13:30

  CHANCEL Lucas (IDDRI/Sciences Po) : Are younger generations higher carbon emitters than their elders?" Evidence from US and French household budget surveys

• Tuesday 16 October 2012 12:30-13:30

  MATRAY Adrien (HEC Business School) : Banking competition and banking discrimination against poors and racial minorities

  Co-author(s): Claire Célerier

• Tuesday 9 October 2012 12:30-13:30

  ZUCMAN Gabriel (PSE) : Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries, 1870-2010

  Co-auteur(s) : Thomas Piketty

• Tuesday 2 October 2012 12:30-13:30

  FOURNIER Jean-Marc (OCDE) : The determinants of earnings inequality – evidence from quantile regressions

  Co-author(s): Isabell Koske

  Abstract

  Unconditional and conditional quantile regressions are used to explore the determinants of labour earnings at different parts of the distribution and, hence, the determinants of overall labour earnings inequality. The analysis combines several household surveys to provide comparable estimates for 32 countries. The empirical work suggests that, in general, a rise in the share of workers with an upper-secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary degree and a rise in the share of workers on permanent contracts are associated with a narrowing of the earnings distribution. By contrast, a shift in the sector composition of the economy is not found to have a large impact on overall earnings inequality. As for tertiary education, the impact remains ambiguous as there are several offsetting forces.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 25 September 2012 12:30-13:30

  BRODEUR Abel (PSE) : Where the Streets Have a Name: Income Comparisons in the US

  Co-author(s): Sarah Flèche

  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the effects of income comparisons on utility using data on self-reported well-being. We rely on a very large survey (BRFSS) and an unprecedented survey conducted by the City of Somerville in order to study this relationship. These data sets allow us to study income comparisons at the county, ZIP code and street-levels. While there is a negative association between respondents' well-being and median income at the county and street-levels, this is the opposite at the ZIP code-level. We disentangle the effects of pure social comparisons and local public goods by including the relative rank in the income distribution in our model. Conditional on relative rank, there is a positive relationship between well-being and median county income. Last, we find evidence of asymmetry and nonlinearities in the comparison process.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 18 September 2012 12:30-13:30

  STANCANELLI Elena (CES, Universite Paris 1) : Joint Leisure Before and After Retirement: a double Regression Discontinuity approach

  Co-author(s): Arthur van Soest

  Abstract

  In the scant literature on partners' joint retirement decisions one of the explanations for joint retirement is externalities in leisure. In this study, we investigate how retirement affects the hours of leisure together of individuals in a couple. Exploiting the law on retirement age in France, we use a regression discontinuity approach to identify the causal effect of retirement on hours of leisure separate and together of individuals in a couple. We find that the retirement probability increases significantly at age 60 for both partners, supporting our identification strategy. We conclude that retirement of the husband significantly increases own hours of leisure of the husband but it does not increase joint leisure hours of the couple. Retirement of the wife increases joint leisure. This asymmetry in responses is well in line with recent literature on joint retirement and suggests that leisure complementarities may not be the main engine of joint retirement.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 26 June 2012 12:30-13:30

  BACH Laurent (Stockholm School of Economics) : Tax Collection and Corporate Governance: Evidence from French Small Businesses

• Tuesday 19 June 2012 12:30-13:30

  COSTA Francisco J. M. (London School of Economics) : Just Do It: Temporary restrictions and new consumption habits

• Tuesday 12 June 2012 12:30-13:30

  OREOPOULOS Philip (University of Toronto) : *

• Tuesday 5 June 2012 12:30-13:30

  JEDWAB Remi (London School of Economics) : Colonial Investments and African Development: Evidence from Ghanaian Railways

  Co-author(s): Alexander Moradi

  Abstract

  We study the impact of colonial investments in modern transportation infrastructure on agriculture and development in Ghana. Two railway lines were built between 1901 and 1923 to connect the coast to mining areas and the large hinterland city of Kumasi. This unintendedly opened vast expanses of tropical forest to cocoa cultivation, allowing Ghana to become the world's largest producer. Using data at a very ne spatial level, we nd a strong eect of railroad connectivity on cocoa production in 1927, generating rents in the order of 4.5% of GDP. We show that the economic boom in cocoa-producing areas was associated with demographic growth and urbanization. We nd no eect for lines that were not built yet, and lines that were planned but never built. Lastly, railway construction had a persistent impact: railway districts are more developed today despite a complete displacement of rail by other means of transport. JEL classication codes: O18, R4, 013, F1, N17 Keywords: Transportation Infrastructure, Trade Costs, Agriculture, Africa

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 May 2012 12:30-13:30

  COMOLA Margherita (PSE) : The Effect of Financial Access on Networks: Evidence from a field experiment in Nepal

  Co-author(s): Silvia Prina

• Tuesday 22 May 2012 12:30-13:30

  VALFORT Marie-Anne (PSE) : One Muslim is Enough! Evidence from a Field Experiment in France

  Co-author(s): Claire Adida & David Laitin

  Abstract

  Anti-Muslim prejudice is widespread in Western countries. Yet, Muslims are expected to constitute a growing share of the total population in Western countries over the next decades. This paper predicts that this demographic trend, other factors held constant, will increase anti-Muslim prejudice. Relying on experimental games and a formal model, we show that the generosity of rooted French toward Muslims is significantly decreased with the increase of Muslims in their midst, and demonstrate that these results are driven by the activation of rooted French taste-based discrimination against Muslims when Muslim numbers increase. Our findings call for solutions to anti-Muslim prejudice in the West.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 May 2012 12:30-13:30

  MAVRIDIS Dimitris Alexan (Université Paris-Sorbonne) : Can Subjective Well-Being Predict Unemployment Duration?

• Tuesday 24 April 2012 12:30-13:30

  FREMEAUX Nicolas (PSE) : Pour l'amour du risque ? - Preferences for saving and assortative mating

  Co-author(s): Luc Arrondel

• Tuesday 17 April 2012 12:30-13:30

  SENOUCI Mehdi (PSE) : Malthusian Dynamics of Animal Populations

  Co-author(s): Pablo Winant

• Tuesday 10 April 2012 12:30-13:30

  CLAUSING Kimberly A. (Reed College) : In Search of Corporate Tax Incidence

  Abstract

  This paper reviews existing theory and empirical evidence concerning corporate tax incidence. Corporate tax incidence is difficult to establish in theory since the burden of corporate taxation will depend on at least five crucial economic parameters. Further, even if these parameters can be agreed upon, theoretical models of corporate taxation neglect at least seven important considerations. Unfortunately, existing empirical work does not provide clarification, since much of the work either relies on inappropriate tests of general equilibrium tax incidence or suffers from data or methodological limitations. This paper attempts to improve knowledge in this area by undertaking a comprehensive series of analyses of multiple data sources on labor market outcomes and corporate taxation. The analyses are informed by open-economy general equilibrium corporate tax incidence models, and they focus on OECD countries over the period 1981-2009. Results indicate substantial uncertainty regarding what fraction of the corporate tax burden falls on labor, but there is no robust evidence that corporate tax burdens have large depressing effects on wages. These results stand in contrast to findings of other papers; I discuss several possible reasons for this divergence.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 3 April 2012 12:30-13:30

  LEBARZ Claire (PSE) : Income Inequality and the Current Account

  Co-author(s):Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière

• Tuesday 27 March 2012 12:30-13:30

  MESNARD Alice (Institute for Fiscal Studies ) : Sale of Visas: A Smuggler's Final Song ?

  Co-author(s): Emmanuelle Auriol

  Abstract

  We study how smugglers respond to different types of migration policies - legalisation through the sale of migration visas, or more traditional repressive policies through borders' enforcement, employers' sanctions or deportation - by changing the price they propose to illegal migrants. In this context a government that aims at eradicating smugglers and controlling migration flows faces a trade-off. Eliminating smugglers by the sale of visas increases the flows of migrants and may worsen their skill composition. In contrast, repressive policies decrease the flows of illegal migrants and may improve their skill composition but reinforce the smugglers' abusive power as they apply higher prices. We then study how a combination of increased repression -through reinforced external and internal controls- and sale of visas may be effective at eliminating smugglers and controlling migration flows while not weighing on public finances. Simulations allow us to quantify the partial equilibrium effects of the policies under study.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 20 March 2012 12:30-13:30

  GOLLAC Sibylle (Centre Maurice Halbwachs) : Les ambigüités de l’aînesse masculine. Inégalités au sein des fratries en matière de propriété immobilière

• Tuesday 13 March 2012 12:30-13:30

  LECAT Rémy (Banque de France) : Labour relations quality and productivity: An empirical analysis on French firms

  Co-author(s) : Gilbert Cette, Nicolas Dromel & Anne-Charlotte Paret

  Abstract

  This analysis characterizes empirically how good labour relations can alleviate the negative impact on productivity of regulatory constraints or workforce opposition. Our evidence of good labour relations lies in the existence of binding collective agreements, at the firm or at the industry level. The estimations are based on a unique dataset collected by the Banque de France about the obstacles French firms may face in increasing their utilisation of production factors. Data are an unbalanced sample of 9,185 observations, corresponding to 2,134 companies, over the period 1991-2008. Our main results may be summarised as follows: i) workforce or union opposition interacted with regulatory constraints has a negative significant impact on total factor productivity (TFP). Regulatory constraints would become really binding when workers or unions use them as a tool to oppose management’s decisions; ii) workforce or union opposition interacted with firm agreement has a positive significant impact on TFP. Firm agreements, which reflect good-quality local labour relations, would be used by firms to offset the negative impact of local opposition from workers or unions; iii) regulatory constraints interacted with branch agreement has a positive significant impact on TFP. Branch agreements, which can only be obtained if labour relations at the industry level are supportive, would be used by branches to offset the negative impact of regulatory constraints. These results give a strong confirmation that labour relations quality, at the branch or the firm levels, is an important factor of productive performance. Keywords: Labour relation, collective bargaining, trade unions, productivity JEL Classification: J53, J52, J51 a: Banque de France and Université de la Méditer

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 6 March 2012 12:30-13:30

  KESZTENBAUM Lionel (INED) : The democratization of longevity: How the poor became old. Paris, 1880-1940

  Co-author(s): Jean-Laurent Rosenthal

  Abstract

  In the first decades of the 19th century, industrialized countries experienced both a decline in urban mortality and the reversal of the rural-urban mortality differentials, once vastly favorable to rural areas. This process can be linked with two broad phenomena: a rise in income and improved public goods. Here we focus on income and take advantage of the unusual quantity, quality, and variety of statistics computed by the statistical department of the Paris municipality under the lead of Louis-Adolphe and Jacques Bertillon. For the three decades preceding WWI, we have collected and standardized mortality data at the neighborhood (quartier) level. Therefore we have longitudinal data on mortality at a very small scale –Paris has 80 neighborhoods with an average population of 30,000 inhabitants– during the key period of the health transition. Life expectancy in Paris is not very different from the rest of the country –around 50 years at 5 years old– but the difference between the two extremes of the distribution is over 10 years in life expectancy. To explain such huge mortality differential between neighborhood, we add to this dataset various information on income and wealth from fiscal records, especially both the average rents and its distribution within neighborhoods. We document that the disparities in mortality between neighborhoods are strongly related to a variety of income indicators. Over time, mortality fell because of income increases rather than because of a change of the mortality income relationship. Keywords: differential mortality, wealth, urbanisation, Paris JEL codes: N33, N34

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 28 February 2012 12:30-13:30

  GOUJARD Antoine (LSE) : The externalities from social housing, evidence from housing prices

  Abstract

  I investigate the impact of social housing on the sales price of neighboring flats in Paris. I construct a unique dataset including flat sales and social housing projects at the building level. To account for endogenous placement of social housing projects, I use a difference-in-differences strategy that includes fine geographical controls and trending unobservables. In my preferred specifications which control for building fixed effects, a particular spatial pattern emerges: a 10 percentage points increase in the social housing share implies a 1.2% increase in housing value within a radius of 50 meters. However, private properties located farther away from the social projects within a 350 to 500 meter belt experience price decrease by 5.5%. The positive effects appear more important for small dwellings and for properties located in poor neighborhoods while negative impacts dominate in high income neighborhoods and for family dwellings. Further estimates exploit the unexpected win of a left-wing mayor in Paris, which was followed by a sharp increase in social housing units driven by the direct conversion of private rental flats into social units without any accompanying rehabilitation. This natural experiment allows to identify the impact of the inflow into the neighborhood of low income tenants, separately from the effects of social housing on the quality of the existing housing stock. I do not find evidence of a positive impact of the conversion projects on housing prices. Keywords: Social housing, neighborhood eects, housing prices. JEL Classication: J0, H42, R38

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 21 February 2012 12:30-13:30

  SENIK Claudia (PSE) : The French Unhappiness Puzzle

  Abstract

  The main objective of this article is to shed light on the important differences in self-declared happiness across countries of equivalent affluence. It hinges on the different happiness statements of natives and migrants in a set of European countries to disentangle the influence of objective circumstances versus cultural factors. The latter turns out to be of non-negligible importance in explaining international heterogeneity in happiness. In some countries, such as France, they are solely responsible for the country unobserved idiosyncratic source of happiness. JEL Codes: I31, H52, O15, O52, Z10 Keywords: Happiness, Subjective Well-Being, International Comparisons, France, Immigration, European Social Survey

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 14 February 2012 12:30-13:30

  SCHMUTZ Benoît (PSE) : Urban geography and the effectiveness of French enterprise zones

  Co-author(s): Miren Lafourcade & Anthony Briant

  Abstract

  This paper provides the results of a new econometric evaluation of the French enterprise zone program. According to previous evaluations, this program has only had a small positive average impact on firms and jobs creation rates. In addition, this impact was shown to be strongly heterogeneous across the targeted neighborhoods. We investigate here whether the geographical characteristics of these neighborhoods may account for part of these results. To that end, we estimate a series of augmented difference-in-differences models in which we interact the treatment indicator with a series of original indices of spatial isolation, which account for urban severance and transport access, at various scales. Results indicate that spatial isolation does matter to explain spatial differentials in jobs and firms’ creation rates across enterprise zones, especially when the program is less efficient on average. Finally, we examine whether the results of our evaluation differ across sectors with different labor/capital intensities.

• Tuesday 7 February 2012 12:30-13:30

  PHILIPPON Thomas (New York University) : Household leverage and the recession

  Co-author(s): Virgiliu Midrigan

  Abstract

  A salient feature of the recent recession is that regions that have experienced the largest changes in household leverage have also experienced the largest declines in output and employment. We study a cash-in-advance economy in which home equity borrowing, alongside public money, is used to conduct transactions. Declines in home prices tighten the cash-in-advance constraint, triggering recessions. We parameterize the model to match the key cross-sectional features of the data. The model implies that real activity is very sensitive to liquidity shocks, but not to credit shocks, and that monetary policy can significantly reduce the severity of credit-driven recessions.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 31 January 2012 12:30-13:30

  IMBERT Clément (PSE) : Equilibrium Distributional Impacts of Government Employment Programs

  Co-author(s) : John Papp

  Abstract

  This paper presents evidence on the equilibrium labor market impacts of a large rural workfare program in India. Our identification strategy compares changes in outcomes in districts that received the program earlier to districts that received it later. These difference-in-differences estimates reveal that following the introduction of the program, public employment increased by .3 days per prime-aged person per month (1.3\% of private sector employment) more in early districts than in the rest of India. Casual wages increase by 4.5\% more in early districts, and private sector work for low-skill workers falls by 1.6\%. These changes are concentrated in the dry season, during which the majority of public works employment is provided. Estimates are larger for districts in states known to have better implemented the technical and administrative requirements of the act. We use the estimates along with household-level data on labor earnings, payments to hired labor, consumption, and program participation to compute the implied welfare gains of the program by consumption quintile. Our estimates suggest that the welfare gains to the poor from the equilibrium increase in private sector wages are large in absolute terms and large relative to the gains received solely by program participants. We conclude that the equilibrium labor market impacts are a first order concern when comparing workfare programs with other anti-poverty programs such as a cash transfer.

• Tuesday 24 January 2012 12:30-13:30

  BEHAGHEL Luc (PSE) : Private and Public Provision of Counseling to Job-Seekers: Evidence from a Large Controlled Experiment

  Co-auteur(s) : Bruno Crépon et Marc Gurgand

  Abstract

  Contracting out public services to private firms has ambigous effects when quality is imperfectly observable. Using a randomized experiment over a national sample in France, we compare the efficiency of the public employment service (PES) vs. private providers in delivering very similar job-search intensive counseling. The impact of each program is assessed with respect to the standard, low intensity track offered by the PES to the unemployed. We find that job-search assistance increases exit rates to employment by 15 to 35%. But the impact of the public program is about twice as large as compared to the private program, at least during the 6 first months after random assignment. We argue that the observed contract structure with the private providers has not overcome the underlying agency problem. We find no evidence of cream-skimming: rather, it seems that profit maximizing private providers have found it optimal to enroll as many job-seekers as they could, but to make minimum effort on the placement of some of them.

• Tuesday 17 January 2012 12:30-13:30

  LAURENT Thierry (Université Evry Val d'Essonne - UniverSud Paris) : Orientation sexuelle et emploi en France : les gays plus exposés au chômage que les autres ?

  Co-author(s) : Ferhat MIHOUBI

  Abstract

  Ce travail a pour objectif de mesurer la discrimination d’accès à l’emploi liée à l’orientation sexuelle. Il s’agit d’une première, puisqu’au niveau international très peu d’études de ce type ont été réalisées et aucune dans le cas français. L’évaluation économétrique de la discrimination d’accès à l’emploi est réalisée en empilant les données de l’enquête Emploi sur la période 1996-2009 et en identifiant des couples de même sexe à l’aide d’un critère de cohabitation. La probabilité d’être en emploi est modélisée en tenant compte de l’orientation sexuelle et de la sélection endogène mesurée par une équation de participation au marché du travail. Les résultats montrent que le taux de chômage des travailleurs gays serait de 1,6% plus élevé que celui de leurs homologues hétérosexuels, toutes choses égales par ailleurs. Cette mesure de la discrimination d’accès à l’emploi est loin d’être négligeable puisqu’elle dépasse la pénalité subie par les individus nés hors de France ou encore celle subie par les séniors. Nous montrons aussi que cette discrimination affecte prioritairement les gays de moins de 40 ans, puisque la probabilité d’être au chômage excède de 2,4% celle de leurs homologues hétérosexuels. Ce dernier résultat suggère un processus de recherche du «bon emploi» bien plus long pour les travailleurs gays que pour leurs homologues hétérosexuels.

• Tuesday 10 January 2012 12:30-13:30

  ZUCMAN Gabriel (PSE) : The End of Bank Secrecy? An Evaluation of the G20 Tax Haven Crackdown

  Co-auteur(s) : Niels Johannesen

  Abstract

  During the financial crisis, G20 countries compelled tax havens to sign bilateral treaties providing for exchange of bank information. Is it the end of bank secrecy? Exploiting a unique panel dataset, we study how the treaties affected bank deposits in tax havens. Our results suggest that most tax evaders did not respond to the treaties but a minority responded by transferring their deposits to havens not covered by a treaty. Overall, the G20 tax haven crackdown has caused a modest relocation of deposits between havens but no significant repatriation of funds: the era of bank secrecy is not yet over.

• Tuesday 3 January 2012 12:30-13:30

  STANTCHEVA Stefanie (MIT) : Optimal Taxation of Top Labor Incomes: A Tale of Three Elasticities

  Co-author(s) : Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez

  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the problem of optimal taxation of top labor incomes. We develop a model where top incomes respond to marginal tax rates through three channels: (1) the standard supply-side channel through reduced economic activity, (2) the tax avoidance channel, (3) the compensation bargaining channel through efforts in influencing own pay setting. We derive the optimal top tax rate formula as a function of the three elasticities corresponding to those three channels of responses. The first elasticity (supply side) is the sole real factor limiting optimal top tax rates. The optimal tax system should be designed to minimize the second elasticity (avoidance) through tax enforcement and tax neutrality across income forms, in which case the second elasticity becomes irrelevant. The optimal top tax rate increases with the third elasticity (bargaining) as bargaining efforts are zero-sum in aggregate. We then analyze top income and top tax rate data in 18 OECD countries. There is a strong correlation between cuts in top tax rates and increases in top 1% income shares since 1975, implying that the overall elasticity is large. But top income share increases have not translated into higher economic growth, consistent with the zero-sum bargaining model. This suggests that the first elasticity is modest in size and that the overall effect comes mostly from the third elasticity. Consequently, socially optimal top tax rates might possibly be much higher than what is commonly assumed.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 13 December 2011 12:30-13:30

  RANCIERE Romain (PSE) : Credit Standards and Segregation

  Co-auteur(s) : Amine Ouazad

  Abstract

  How do credit standards on the mortgage market affect neighborhood choice and the resulting level of urban segregation? To answer this question, we first develop a model of neighborhood choice with credit constraints. The model shows that a relaxation of credit standards can either increase or decrease segregation, depending on racial income gaps and on races’ preferences for neighborhoods. We then estimate the effect of the relaxation of credit standards that accompanied the 1995–2007 mortgage credit boom on the level of urban and school segregation. Matching a national data set of mortgage originations with annual racial demographics of each of the public schools in the United States from 1995 to 2007, we find that the relaxation of credit standards has caused an increase in segregation.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 6 December 2011 12:30-13:30

  MONNET Eric (PSE) : Financing a planned economy. Institutions and credit allocation in the French Golden age of growth (1954-1974)

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 November 2011 12:30-13:30

  LANDAIS Camille (Stanford University) : Do taxes affect location decision of high-skilled labor? Evidence from Denmark

  Co-author(s) : Henrik Kleven, Emmanuel Saez & Esben Schultz

  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the eects of income taxation on the international migration of top earners using the Danish preferential foreigner tax scheme. This scheme, introduced in 1991, allows immigrants with high earnings (above 103,000 Euros per year as of 2009) to be taxed at a at rate of 25% for a duration of three years instead of the regular progressive schedule with a top marginal tax rate of 59%. Using population wide Danish administrative tax data, we show that the scheme doubled the number of highly paid foreigners in Denmark relative to slightly less paid ineligible foreigners, which translates into a very large elasticity of migration with respect to the net-of-tax rate in excess of one. There is bunching of earnings at the scheme eligibility threshold, evidence of a signicant but quantitatively very small response along the intensive earnings margin (work eort or earnings manipulation through tax avoidance). There is also evidence of sharp bunching of durations of stay at the three year duration limit which translates into a signicant but quantitatively small intensive duration response. In the end, the migration elasticity is much more larger than the conventional within country elasticity of earnings with respect to the net-of-tax rate. Hence, preferential tax schemes for highly paid workers could generate very harmful competition across European countries and severely limit the ability of European governments to use progressive taxation.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 November 2011 12:30-13:30

  MAYNERIS Florian (Université catholique de Louvain, IRES, CORE) : The Impact of Urban Enterprise Zones on Establishment Location Decisions - Evidence from French ZFUs

  Co-auteur(s) : Thierry Mayer & Loriane Py

  Abstract

  Governments increasingly provide geographically-targeted tax incentives to promote the economic development of distressed urban areas. In this paper, we study the impact of a French Enterprise zones program (the ZFU policy) on establishment location decisions. Our empirical analysis is based on a microgeographic dataset which provides exhaustive information on the location of establishments in France over the period 1995-2007 at the census block level. In order to deal with endogeneity issues, we adopt a difference in dif- ference approach which combines spatial and time differencing. We alternately implement a triple difference estimation, using the fact that targeted urban areas have been selected in different waves over time. Finally, we exploit a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria of the policy as an exogenous source of variation to estimate the impact of the treat- ment. Our results show that the French ZFU policy has a positive and sizeable impact on the probability that establishments locate in targeted areas, this effect being robust to different estimation strategies. We then further investigate the mechanisms that drive this positive average effect and find that the impact of the policy is stronger for targeted areas that are initially less distressed and for sectors in which relocation costs are lower. Additionally, ZFU areas tend to attract smaller firms. However, the analysis of the spatial pattern of the effect reveals that the policy does not create economic activity per se at the municipality level, it rather operates as a spatial shifter within municipalities, induc- ing existing establishments, or new establishments to (re)locate in the ZFU part of the municipality.

• Tuesday 15 November 2011 12:30-13:30

  BOZIO Antoine (Institute for Fiscal Studies) : Wealth and Savings of the Lifetime Rich: Evidence from the UK and the US

  Co-author(s) : Carl Emmerson, Gemma Tetlow & Cormac O'Dea

• Tuesday 8 November 2011 12:30-13:30

  MILAZZO Annamaria (Bocconi University) : Social Norms, Inheritance, and Human Capital: Evidence from a Reform of the Matrilineal System in Ghana

  Co-auteur(s) : Eliana La Ferrara

• Tuesday 25 October 2011 12:30-13:30

  PIKETTY Thomas (PSE) : A Theory of Optimal Capital Taxation

  Co-auteur(s) : Emmanuel Saez L'article est consultable en cliquant sur le lien suivant : A Theory of Optimal Capital Taxation

  Abstract

  This paper develops a realistic, tractable normative theory of socially-optimal capital taxation. We present a dynamic model of savings and bequests with heterogeneous tastes for bequests to children and for wealth accumulation per se. We derive formulas for optimal inheritance tax rates expressed in terms of estimable parameters and social preferences. The long-run optimal inheritance tax rate increases with the aggregate steady-state ?ow of inheritances to output, decreases with the elasticity of bequests to the net-of-tax rate, and decreases with the strength of preferences for leaving bequests. For realistic parameters, the optimal inheritance tax rate should be as high as 50%-60% -or even higher for top bequests- if the government has meritocratic preferences (i.e., puts higher welfare weights on those receiving little inheritance). In contrast to the Atkinson-Stiglitz result, bequest taxation remains desirable in our model even with optimal labor taxation because inequal- ity is two-dimensional: with inheritances, labor income is no longer the unique determinant of lifetime resources. In contrast to Chamley-Judd, optimal inheritance taxation is desir- able because our preferences allow for ?nite long run elasticities of inheritance to tax rates. Finally, we discuss how capital market imperfections and idyosincratic shocks to rates of return can justify shifting one-o¤ inheritance taxation toward lifetime capital taxation, and can account for the actual structure and mix of inheritance and capital taxation.

• Tuesday 18 October 2011 12:30-13:30

  KESLAIR François (PSE) : The children of teachers in France

• Tuesday 11 October 2011 12:30-13:30

  GODEFROY Raphael (PSE) : Voter Turnout and Governments Budget

  Co-auteur(s) : Emeric Henry

• Tuesday 4 October 2011 12:30-13:30

  CLARK Andrew (PSE) : Keep on Trucking? Preferences over Pay Profiles in a High-Quit Industry

  Co-auteur(s) : Steve Burks

• Tuesday 27 September 2011 12:30-13:30

  JEDWAB Rémi (PSE) : Why Is Africa Urbanized But Poor? Evidence from Resource Booms in Ghana and Ivory Coast

  Abstract

  Africa is highly urbanized for its level of economic development. I argue that this paradox results from African countries exporting natural resources: resource windfalls drive urbanization, but not necessarily long-term economic growth. I develop a structural transformation model where the Engel curve implies that windfalls are disproportionately spent on urban goods and services. This drives urbanization through a rise of consumer cities. I illustrate the model by studying cocoa booms and urbanization at the district level in Ghana and Ivory Coast over one century. As an identication strategy, I use the fact that cocoa is produced by consuming the forest: (a) for agronomic reasons, farmers have to deforest a new region every 25 years, and (b) for historical reasons, the cocoa frontier has shifted westward in each country. I nd that cities boom in newly producing regions, but persist in old ones despite the fact those regions are poor. I discuss possible explanations for both urban irreversibility and the lack of long-term economic growth. JEL classication codes: O18, R00, O13, R12, N97 Keywords: Urbanization, Structural Transformation, Resource Curse, Africa

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 20 September 2011 12:30-13:30

  GUYON Nina (PSE) : Geographic Income Segregation: Empirical Evidence from France

• Tuesday 13 September 2011 12:30-13:30

  SANGNIER Marc (PSE) : Efficient and inefficient welfare states

  Co-auteur(s) : Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc

• Tuesday 28 June 2011 12:30-13:30

  GURGAND Marc (PSE) : Do labor market policies have displacement effect? Evidence from a clustered random experiment

  Co-auteur(s) : Bruno Crépon, Esther Duflo, Roland Rathelot & Philippe Zamora.

  Abstract

  Active Labor Market policies, where job seekers are given help to identify job offers and receive interview have become popular, particularly in Europe. The impact of job seeker counseling policies on its beneficiaries may be due to a combination of an increase in the number of job offers or to displacement effects. In this paper, we report on the results of a randomized experiment designed to evaluate the impact of reinforced job market counseling on the labor market outcomes of young, educated jobseekers in France. In order to identify both the direct and displacement effects, we use a two-step design. Before the experiment start, the proportions of jobseekers to be assigned to treatment are randomly drawn for each labor market (e.g. cities). Then, in each agency, jobseekers are assigned to treatment randomly, according to this previously drawn proportion. The program significantly improves the chance that a treated job seeker finds a job, but there is no evidence of any crowding-out effects on non-treated job seekers even where the proportion of treated people is high.

• Tuesday 21 June 2011 12:30-13:30

  GADENNE Lucie (PSE) : Tax Me, but Spend Wisely : The Political Economy of Taxes, Evidence from Brazilian Local Governments

• Tuesday 14 June 2011 12:30-13:30

  GRENET Julien (PSE) : Means-tested Grants and Academic Achievement in Higher Education. Evidence from France

• Tuesday 7 June 2011 12:30-13:30

  PETROVA Maria (New Economics School) : Cross-border effects of foreign media: Serbian radio and nationalist in Croatia

  Co-auteur(s) : Stefano DellaVigna, Ruben Enikolopov, Vera Mironova & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 31 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  BANERJEE Abhijit (MIT) : Do Informed Voters Make Better Choices? Experimental Evidence from India

  Co-auteur(s) : Selvan Kumar, Rohini Pande & Felix Su

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 24 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  LY Son Thierry (PSE) : The Happy Few of Higher Education : Evidence of positive discrimination toward the gender in minority

  Co-auteur(s) : Thomas Breda

• Tuesday 17 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  LEHMANN Etienne (CREST - INSEE) : Labor Earnings Respond Differently to Income-Tax and to Payroll-Tax Reforms

  Co-auteur(s) : Laurence Rioux & François Marical

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 10 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  LETURCQ Marion (PSE) : Would you civil union me? Did the reform of income taxation boost civil union in France?

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 3 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  DHERBECOURT Clément (PSE) : fertility rates and capital accumulation in very rich parisian dynasties

• Tuesday 26 April 2011 12:30-13:30

  GODECHOT Olivier (CNRS, CMH, PSE ) : Finance and the rise in inequalities in France

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 19 April 2011 12:30-13:30

  VERDUGO Gregory (Banque de France) : The Great Compression of the Wage Structure in France, 1969-2008

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 12 April 2011 12:30-13:30

  DE LA RUPELLE Maelys (PSE) : Social Status and Inequality Persistence: the Long Term Effect of Mao's Land Reform in China

  Co-auteur(s) : Li Shi

• Tuesday 5 April 2011 12:30-13:30

  JAYARAMAN Rajshri (ESMT Berlin) : The impact of school lunches on primary school enrollment: evidence from India's midday meal scheme

  Co-auteur(s) : Dora Simroth & Francis de Vericourt

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 March 2011 12:30-13:30

  MAURIN Eric (PSE) : Labour Supply Spillovers within Households : Lessons from Mandatory Workweek Reductions

  Co-auteur(s) : Dominique Goux & Barbara Petrongolo

• Tuesday 22 March 2011 12:30-13:30

  GODEFROY Raphael (PSE) : Political Determinants of Local Finances: Evidence from France

  Co-auteur(s) : Emeric Henry

• Tuesday 15 March 2011 12:30-13:30

  ZYLBERBERG Yanos (PSE) : Neither a borrower nor a lender be: resources misallocation in the wake of natural disasters

• Tuesday 8 March 2011 12:30-13:30

  CASSAN Guilhem (PSE) : The impact of reservations in education in India : evidence from a double natural experiment

  Co-auteur(s) : Ashwini Natraj

• Tuesday 1 March 2011 12:30-13:30

  DE CHAISEMARTIN Clément (PSE) : Fuzzy Difference in Differences and Fuzzy Change in Change

• Tuesday 22 February 2011 12:30-13:30

  PIKETTY Thomas (PSE) : Inherited vs Self-Made Wealth: Theory & Evidence from a Rentier Society (Paris 1872-1937)

  Co-auteur(s) : Gilles Postel-Vinay & Jean Laurent Rosenthal

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 February 2011 12:30-13:30

  PAS DE SEANCE

• Tuesday 8 February 2011 12:30-13:30

  FREMEAUX Nicolas (PSE) : Do we choose our spouse according to inheritance or labor income? - An essay on bi-dimensional assortative mating

  Abstract

  This paper investigates the importance of inheritance relative to labor income in marital relations. I find that in France over the period 1992 - 2004, there is a clear positive assortative mating for the two dimensions. More interesting, the source of wealth seems to matter more than the amount. The preference towards a source of wealth depends on the appartenance to one of the two categories : inheritors or workers. Top inheritors men have higher probabilities than top income men to be in couple with top inheritance women. The reverse is true but the partition between the two dimensions is significantly stronger for inheritance. Two complementary reasons may explain this advantage of inheritors : the growing instability of couples and the long run evolution of inheritance.

• Tuesday 1 February 2011 12:30-13:30

  DURANTE Ruben (Sciences Po) : Risk, cooperation and the economic origins of social trust: an empirical investigation

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 25 January 2011 12:30-13:30

  HANLON Walker (Columbia University) : A Theory of Leadership Selection in Small Groups - With Evidence from Ugandan Farmer Association

  Co-auteur(s) : Guy Grossman

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 18 January 2011 12:30-13:30

  CELERIER Claire (Toulouse School of Economics) : Compensation in the Financial Sector: Are all Bankers Superstars?

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 11 January 2011 12:30-13:30

  ROUZET Dorothée (Harvard University) : Company brands and national brands. How reputation affects foreign sales?

  Co-auteur(s) : Julia Cagé

• Tuesday 4 January 2011 12:30-13:30

  PONS Vincent (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) : Pull the bobbin, and the latch will go up - how a 2010 French canvassing campaign reached ethnic minorities disappointed by politics by knocking at their door

  Co-auteur(s) : Guillaume Liegey

  Abstract

  During the campaign for the French 2010 regional elections in Ile-de-France, half of a sample of 1,350 buildings were randomly selected to benefit from a partisan door to door canvassing campaign. The individual turnout of each of the 24,000 voters included in the sample was observed for both rounds of the election. The comparison between the treatment and control groups reveals that the impact of the intervention was significant and high only for voters belonging to ethnic minorities, defined as French people born abroad and in French territories abroad and their children. The heterogeneity of the impact is not explained by observed confounding variables or by differences in the baseline participation of the different groups. The impact is lower on the second stage participation, indicating that an important proportion of the voters that were affected by the intervention are not hard vote abstainers. The intervention did not increase the knowledge of the voters on questions related to the election, as measured by a post-electoral survey administered on a subsample, which possibly points out to other channels that might explain the observed impact.

• Tuesday 14 December 2010 12:30-13:30

  COMOLA Margherita (PSE) : Network Targeting on Information Spillovers: lessons from an educational program in Nepal

• Tuesday 7 December 2010 12:30-13:30

  DOYLE Joseph (MIT) : Measuring Returns to Healthcare

  Co-auteur(s) : John Graves, Jon Gruber & Samuel Kleiner

• Tuesday 30 November 2010 12:30-13:30

  CARBONNIER Clément (Université de Cergy-Pontoise ) : Avantages fiscaux et épargne retraite, les ménages répondent-ils aux incitations ?

• Tuesday 23 November 2010 12:30-13:30

  SOARES Rodrigo (Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro) : The Use of Violence in Illegal Markets: Evidence from Mahogany Trade in the Brazilian Amazon

  Co-auteur(s) : Ariaster Chimeli

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 16 November 2010 12:30-13:30

  MARCASSA Stefania (PSE) : Labor Supply and Taxation in Europe

  Co-auteur(s) : Fabrizio Colonna

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 9 November 2010 12:30-13:30

  VANDEN EYNDE Oliver (LSE) : Military Recruitment and Human Capital Accumulation -Evidence from Colonial India

  Abstract

  The relationship between military service and economic outcomes has received little attention in the context of developing countries. This paper exploits the exogenous increase in military recruitment during World War I in order to estimate the impact of recruitment by the Indian Army on human capital accumulation. Relying on individual records of Indian casualties in WWI, I calculate the number of war deaths at the district-religion level in colonial Punjab. The resulting ratio of war deaths in the male population will be used as a proxy for the intensity of military recruitment. I also collect a panel of literacy outcomes from 1901 until 1931 at the district-religion level. A difference-in-difference approach is used to estimate the effect of military recruitment on literacy. I find that 10 additional WWI recruits per 1,000 of the 1911 male population were on average associated with 6 more literate males per 1,000 in 1931. Further analysis suggests that this improvement in the human capital stock was mainly driven by direct skill acquisition by soldiers. Additionally, military recruitment seems to have raised the literacy rate of children, but only for the religious group that enjoyed higher returns to education.

• Tuesday 2 November 2010 12:30-13:30

  JEDWAB Rémi (PSE) : Urbanization, a Magic Bullet for African Growth? On Cocoa and Cities in Ivory Coast and Ghana

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 26 October 2010 12:30-13:30

  RANCIERE Romain (PSE) : Inequality, Leverage and Crises

  Co-auteur(s) : Michael Kumhof

• Tuesday 19 October 2010 12:30-13:30

  KAMBAYASHI Ryo (Hitotsubashi University and OECD) : Inequalities in Japan

  Co-auteur(s) : Donatella Gatti & Sébastien Lechevalier

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 12 October 2010 12:30-13:30

  ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE) : Persistent anti-market culture: A legacy of the Pale of Settlement and of the Holocaust

  Co-auteur(s) : Irena Grosfeld & Alexander Rodnyansky

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 5 October 2010 12:30-13:30

  TRANDAFIR Mircea (Université de Sherbrooke) : The Effect of Same-Sex Marriage Laws on Different-Sex Marriage: Evidence from the Netherlands

• Tuesday 28 September 2010 12:30-13:30

  DE HOOP Jacobus (Tinbergen Institute) : Selective Secondary Education and School Participation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Malawi

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 21 September 2010 12:30-13:30

  PROST Corinne (PSE) : Teacher mobility: can financial incentives help disadvantaged schools to retain their teachers?

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 14 September 2010 12:30-13:30

  AEBERHARDT Romain (CREST et INSEE) : Discrimination à l'embauche : comment exploiter les procédures de testing ?

  Co-auteur(s) : Denis FOUGÈRE & Roland RATHELOT

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 6 July 2010 12:30-13:30

  CAGE Julia (PSE) : Do Papivores Influence Politics? Local Media Competition and Political Outcomes in France since 1945

  Co-auteur(s) : François Keslair

• Wednesday 30 June 2010 12:30-13:30

  LAURENT Thierry (Université Paris-Evry) : Moins égaux que les autres ? Orientation sexuelle et discrimination salariale en France

  Co-auteur(s) : Ferhat Mihoubi SEMINAIRE EXCEPTIONNEL

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 June 2010 12:30-13:30

  GOURINCHAS Pierre-Olivier (University of California) : Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty

  Co-auteur(s) : Helene Rey & Nicolas Govillot SEMINAIRE JOINT AVEC LE SEMINAIRE DE MACROECONOMIE

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 June 2010 12:30-13:30

  MONNET Eric (PSE) : Credit controls did matter. An evaluation of monetary policy during France’s Golden Age, 1945-1973

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 June 2010 12:30-13:30

  MARINESCU Ioana (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy) : VIH, salaires et productivite du travail

  Co-auteur(s) : Jane Fortson

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 8 June 2010 12:30-13:30

  GODECHOT Olivier (CMH & PSE) : Getting a job in Finance. The strength of collaboration ties

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 1 June 2010 12:30-13:30

  ZUCMAN Gabriel (PSE) : The Missing Wealth of Nations: Evidence from Switzerland, 1976-2008

• Wednesday 26 May 2010 12:30-13:30

  ROBINSON James (Harvard University) : The Monopoly of Violence: Evidence from Colombia

  Co-auteur(s) : Daron Acemogluy & Rafael J. Santos

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 25 May 2010 12:30-13:30

  SOMVILLE Vincent (FUNDP) : Intra-Household Bargaining and Income Concealment: Theory and Evidence from Urban Benin

• Tuesday 18 May 2010 12:30-13:30

  TARASONIS Linas (PSE) : Insurance within the Firm : Evidence from France

  Co-auteur(s) : Thomas Le Barbanchon

  Abstract

  Using matched employer-employee panel data we evaluate the amount of insurance provision within the French firms. The estimation strategy is based on Guiso, Pistaferri, and Schivardi (2005) and allows for both temporary and permanent shocks to firm performance. We find that French workers are exposed to permanent shocks to firm's performance. We then examine factors associated with wage flexibility and find that small firms provide the least amount of insurance against permanent shocks.

• Tuesday 11 May 2010 12:30-13:30

  CASSAN Guilhem (PSE) : The long term impact of having been a allied to the British : evidence from Punjab

• Tuesday 4 May 2010 12:30-13:30

  SCHMUTZ Benoît (PSE et GREQAM ) : Residential Mobility and UnemploymentResidential Mobility and Unemployment of African Immigrants in France

• Tuesday 27 April 2010 12:30-13:30

  BREZIS Elise S. (Bar-Ilan University) : Elites and Economic Development

• Tuesday 20 April 2010 12:30-13:30

  COMOLA Margherita (PSE) : Are gifts and loans between households voluntary?

  Co-auteur(s) : Marcel Fafchamps

• Tuesday 13 April 2010 12:30-13:30

  BEHAGHEL Luc (PSE) : Framing Social Security Reform: Behavioral Responses to Changes in the Full Retirement Age

  Co-auteur(s) : David Blau

• Tuesday 6 April 2010 12:30-13:30

  SPECTOR David (PSE) : Long-term contracts and competition in electricity markets: a model with some calibration from French data

• Tuesday 30 March 2010 12:30-13:30

  ZYLBERBERG Yanos (PSE) : Do tropical typhoons smash community ties? Theory and Evidence from Vietnam

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 23 March 2010 12:30-13:30

  BAZOT Guillaume (PSE) : Finance and Growth: Local Banking, Credit and Innovation in XIXth France. 1881-1911

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 16 March 2010 12:30-13:30

  LLENSE Fabienne (Université Paris I) : French CEOs' compensation: Whay is the cost of a mandatory upper limit?

• Tuesday 9 March 2010 12:30-13:30

  IMBERT Clément (PSE) : Why should public employees always lose from the transition to market economy? A tale from Vietnam

• Tuesday 2 March 2010 12:30-13:30

  CASSAN Guilhem (PSE) : Looking for fresh meat: the price of being an old and wrinkeld woman in the two sided market of love. Evidence for a French matrimonial agency

  Co-auteur (s) : Marion Leturcq

• Tuesday 23 February 2010 12:30-13:30

  MARCASSA Stefania (PSE) : Job Search Effort and Spouse's Income in France

• Tuesday 16 February 2010

  *

  PAS DE SEMINAIRE POUR CAUSE DE SEMINAIRE DE RECRUTEMENT

• Tuesday 9 February 2010 12:30-13:30

  WALDENSTROM Daniel (Research Institute of Industrial Economics) : Intergenerational top income mobility in Sweden: A combination of equal opportunity and capitalistic dynasties

  Co-auteur(s) : Anders Björklund & Jesper Roine

• Tuesday 2 February 2010 12:30-13:30

  JEDWAB Remi (PSE) : Cash Crops and Urbanization in Africa: A Case Study on Ivory Coast 1900-2000

  Abstract

  Under the hypothesis of agglomeration economies, the factors of city formation have a long-term impact on regional development and inequality. To the extent that locational fundamentals (LF) are the most determining of these factors, there is little scope for regional policy as no urban equilibrium can be undone. We explore this issue by investigating the role of two LF-related productive sectors in Africa _ cash crops and mining _ on urbanization. In particular, using district panel data from Ivory Coast for the period 1900-2000, we study the effect of cocoa production on urbanization. Our identification strategy is based on the fact that cocoa is a migrant culture: (a) areas suitable to cocoa production are forested regions, basically the southern half of the country, (b) for agronomic reasons, cocoa producers replant elsewhere when their cocoa trees are dying, and (c) it just happened that the cocoa front started from the (South-)East of the country. This forced the cocoa front to move westward, at a rather constant speed. We can thus instrument cocoa production with being close to the cocoa front interacted with land suitability for cocoa production. Our results suggest that: (i) local cocoa production has a strong impact on local urbanization. In terms of magnitude, this effect accounts for at least one third of urbanization over the period; (ii) local cocoa production explains relatively more city formation than city growth.

• Tuesday 26 January 2010 12:30-13:30

  BREDA Thomas (PSE) : Are unionized workers and union representatives discriminated?

• Tuesday 19 January 2010 12:30-13:30

  SENOUCI Mehdi (PSE) : Oil prices, the 'exorbitant privilege' and international adjustment

• Tuesday 12 January 2010 12:30-13:30

  BOURGUIGNON François (PSE) : Evaluating Global Growth with non-anonymous growth incidence curves

• Tuesday 5 January 2010 12:30-13:30

  RUIZ Nicolas (OCDE) : Peut-on desserrer l'étau fiscal des classes moyennes? Evaluation de réformes de l'impôt sur le revenu en faveur de leur pouvoir d'achat

  Co-auteur(s) : Vanessa Denis

  Abstract

  Cet article étudie l'impact de réformes alternatives d'importances graduées des prélèvements directs en France, et plus particulièrement de l'impôt sur le revenu. Notre cadre de travail lie fiscalité et pouvoir d'achat. Nous partons du constat désormais bien identifié dans le débat public d'un déclassement relatif des classes moyennes dû principalement au fait que ces dernières soient les perdantes relatives de la distribution des gains de pouvoir d'achat sur les dix dernières années. Conjuguée à la caractérisation de l'impact bi-polaire de l'imposition directe en France qui ne modifie que les positions relatives des extrêmes de la distribution des revenus, nous explorons alors les possibilités de réformes fiscales comme mesure de soutien au pouvoir d'achat des classes moyennes, réformes dont les effets doivent être visibles au niveau des ménages. Au final, nous trouvons qu'un élargissement de la base imposable de l'impôt sur le revenu couplé à une baisse significative de ses taux marginaux inférieurs d'imposition bénéficie fortement aux classes moyennes, et comble significativement le déficit redistributif de cet impôt. Les réformes sont menées à l'aide d'un nouveau modèle de microsimulation comportemental dont nous détaillons les caractéristiques. Classification JEL: C63, D31, H24 & H30 Mots-clés: fiscalité directe, pouvoir d'achat, microsimulation, offre de travail, redistribution

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 December 2009 12:30-13:30

  BACH Laurent (PSE) : Why are Family Firms so Small ? Theory and Evidence from France

  Abstract

  In this paper, I ask whether family firms provide stability to their stakeholders at the expense of economic growth. I build a model where current owners of dynastic firms derive private benefits from keeping the control of the firm within the family over the generations. Because these preferences limit the recourse to external finance, they induce family-minded entrepreneurs to invest in smaller and less risky projects. Predictions of the model are tested using a newly constructed firm-level panel dataset covering both private and listed French firms for the period stretching from 1994 to 2006. The main finding is that family firms are on average 30% smaller than regular firms in terms of sales. However, these firms also choose significantly less volatile sales and employment growth paths. The empirical pattern of financial management in family firms is consistent with the model : family firms incur less debt and hold more cash than their regular counterparts, and these differences are statistically and economically very significant. The results hold in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, after careful control for potential confounding factors.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 December 2009 12:30-13:30

  CARLUCCIO Juan (PSE) : Wage Bargaining and the Boundaries of the Multinational Firm

  Co-auteur(s) : Maria Bas

  Abstract

  Do variations in labor market institutions across countries affect the cross-border organization of the firm? Using firm-level data on multinationals located in France, we show that firms are more likely to outsource the production of intermediate inputs to external suppliers when importing from countries with empowered unions. Moreover, this effect is stronger for firms operating in capital-intensive industries. We propose a theoretical mechanism that rationalizes these findings. The fragmentation of the value chain weakens the union’s bargaining position, by limiting the amount of revenues that are subject to union extraction. The outsourcing strategy reduces the share of surplus that is appropriated by the union, which enhances the firm’s incentives to invest. Since investment creates relatively more value in capital-intensive industries, increases in union power are more likely to be conducive to outsourcing in those industries. Overall, our findings suggest that multinational firms use their organizational structure strategically when sourcing intermediate inputs from unionized markets. Keywords: wage bargaining, trade unions, sourcing, multinational firms. JEL Classification: F10, J52, L22.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 8 December 2009 12:30-13:30

  GADENNE Lucie (PSE) : A Tale of Procyclicality Aid Flows and Debt : Government Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa

  Co-auteur(s) : Victor Lledo & Irene Yackovlev

  Abstract

  This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity and applying dynamic GMM techniques, it finds that government expenditures are slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of sharp increase through the 1990s. Greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, and better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, seem to be important in diminishing procyclicality in the region. The role of institutions is less clear cut: changes in political institutions have no impact on procyclicality. JEL Classification Numbers: E62; E32; H30; O55. Keywords: Fiscal policy, government expenditures, business cycles, and sub-Saharan Africa

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 1 December 2009 12:30-13:30

  BEHAGHEL Luc (PSE) : Private and Public Provision of Counseling to Jobseekers: Evidence from a Controlled Social Experiment

  Co-auteur(s) : B. Crépon & M. Gurgand

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 24 November 2009 12:30-13:30

  GODEFROY Raphael (PSE) : Choosing Choices: Agenda-Setting with Uncertain Issues

• Tuesday 17 November 2009 12:30-13:30

  CAGE Julia (PSE) : Asymmetric Information, Rent Extraction and Aid Efficiency

  Abstract

  Official Development Aid flows are volatile, non-predictable and not delivered in a transparent way. All these features reinforce asymmetric information between the citizens and the recipient government about the amount of aid flows received by developing countries. This article uses a political economy model of rent extraction to show how this asymmetry (i) encourages rent extraction by kleptocratic regimes, thus reducing aid efficiency, and (ii) increases the negative impact of aid volatility. It identifies a new channel - the "asymmetric information" channel - through which aid volatility is costly for recipient countries. The empirical relevance of the model is confirmed on a panel data of developing countries. Using various specifications and econometric methods, and developing new yearly estimates of aid volatility, I show that (i) introducing more information increases aid efficiency, that (ii) the negative impact of aid volatility on aid efficiency vanishes once one controls for information, and that (iii) this positive impact of information does not come from the fact that more transparent countries tend to have better institutions. JEL: F35, P16, 010, D82. Keywords: foreign aid, asymmetric information, rent extraction, volatility.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 10 November 2009 12:30-13:30

  DORSCH Michael (The American University of Paris) : A lobbyist's field guide to buying influence over heterogeneous legislators

  Abstract

  This paper estimates the impact that campaign contributions from the financial sector had in influencing U.S. legislators to support the financial sector bailout bill (TARP) passed by the United States Congress in October 2008. After expanding on a classic theory of moral hazard and electoral accountability, I use a probit analysis to estimate the probability that a legislator supported the bailout bill. The primary explanatory variables of interest, which are motivated by the theoretical section, are campaign contributions to legislators from special interest groups and a measure of constituency characteristics. Controlling for heterogeneity of districts follows from the paper’s theoretical advancement, which is to allow for heterogeneous electoral constraints on the legislators’ ability to collect rents from and vote with the financial special interest. The heterogeneity is based on the importance of the financial sector for employment in districts. The probit estimation results are nothing new to Public Choice adherents. Influence over Senators can be bought and this was true of the financial bailout of 2008: all else equal, an additional $100,000 in campaign contributions from the commercial banking interest is estimated to increase the probability that a Senator supported the bailout by 15.4 percentage points.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 3 November 2009 12:30-13:30

  BOBBA Mattéo (PSE) : Credit, Risk, and Entrepreneurial Choices. Evidence from Rural Mexico

  Co-auteur(s) : Milo Bianchi

  Abstract

  We explore the effects of randomly assigned cash transfers on occupational choices in rural Mexico. We report three main findings. First, the treatment significantly increases the probability to become entrepreneur. Second, those who become entrepreneurs due to the treatment are likely to work more, concentrate into one occupation and earn more. Third, occupational choices do not depend on the size of current transfers (above some minimal level), but they are significantly affected by the amount of future transfers. In light of this evidence, we discuss the role of credit and especially insurance constraints in shaping occupational choices.

• Tuesday 3 November 2009 12:30-13:30

  BOBBA Mattéo (PSE) : Credit, Risk, and Entrepreneurial Choices. Evidence from Rural Mexico

  Co-auteur(s) : Milo Bianchi

  Abstract

  We explore the effects of randomly assigned cash transfers on occupational choices in rural Mexico. We report three main findings. First, the treatment significantly increases the probability to become entrepreneur. Second, those who become entrepreneurs due to the treatment are likely to work more, concentrate into one occupation and earn more. Third, occupational choices do not depend on the size of current transfers (above some minimal level), but they are significantly affected by the amount of future transfers. In light of this evidence, we discuss the role of credit and especially insurance constraints in shaping occupational choices.

• Tuesday 27 October 2009 12:30-13:30

  PAYSAN LE NESTOUR Elise (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) : Decision Making In Nonstationary Environments: An Experimental Study Of Human Adaptation

• Tuesday 27 October 2009 12:30-13:30

  PAYSAN LE NESTOUR Elise (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) : Decision Making In Nonstationary Environments: An Experimental Study Of Human Adaptation

• Tuesday 20 October 2009 12:30-13:30

  MICHAU Jean-Baptiste (LSE) : Dynamic Optimal Redistributive Taxation with Endogenous Retirement

  Abstract

  While the participation decision is discrete in a static context, i.e. to work or not to work, such is not the case in a dynamic context where workers choose the fraction of their lifetime that they spend working. In this paper, I therefore characterize the optimal redistributive policy in a dynamic environment with both an intensive and an extensive margin to labor supply. The government should optimally design a history-dependent social security system which induces higher productivity individuals to retire later. Redistribution should be done through the social security system rather than with a non-linear income tax. Keywords: Extensive margin, Optimal social security, Redistribution, Retirement age JEL Classification: E62, H21, H55, J26

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 20 October 2009 12:30-13:30

  MICHAU Jean-Baptiste (LSE) : Dynamic Optimal Redistributive Taxation with Endogenous Retirement

  Abstract

  While the participation decision is discrete in a static context, i.e. to work or not to work, such is not the case in a dynamic context where workers choose the fraction of their lifetime that they spend working. In this paper, I therefore characterize the optimal redistributive policy in a dynamic environment with both an intensive and an extensive margin to labor supply. The government should optimally design a history-dependent social security system which induces higher productivity individuals to retire later. Redistribution should be done through the social security system rather than with a non-linear income tax. Keywords: Extensive margin, Optimal social security, Redistribution, Retirement age JEL Classification: E62, H21, H55, J26

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 13 October 2009 12:30-13:30

  DE CHAISEMARTIN Clément (PSE) : What has been the impact of smoking ban on workplace in France ?

• Tuesday 13 October 2009 12:30-13:30

  DE CHAISEMARTIN Clément (PSE) : What has been the impact of smoking ban on workplace in France ?

• Tuesday 6 October 2009 12:30-13:30

  MARCASSA Stefania (PSE) : Divorce Laws and Divorce Rate in the U.S

• Tuesday 6 October 2009 12:30-13:30

  MARCASSA Stefania (PSE) : Divorce Laws and Divorce Rate in the U.S

• Tuesday 29 September 2009 12:30-13:30

  GUYON Nina (PSE) : Educational effect of school segregation by ability : a natural experiment

  Co-auteur(s) : Eric Maurin & Sandra McNally

• Tuesday 29 September 2009 12:30-13:30

  GUYON Nina (PSE) : Educational effect of school segregation by ability : a natural experiment

  Co-auteur(s) : Eric Maurin & Sandra McNally

• Tuesday 22 September 2009 12:30-13:30

  PIKETTY Thomas (PSE) : On the long-run evolution of inheritance - France, 1900-2050

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 September 2009 12:30-13:30

  PIKETTY Thomas (PSE) : On the long-run evolution of inheritance - France, 1900-2050

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 September 2009 12:30-13:30

  MAUREL Arnaud (ENSAE) : L’impact du travail étudiant salarié sur la réussite et la poursuite des études universitaires

• Tuesday 15 September 2009 12:30-13:30

  MAUREL Arnaud (ENSAE) : L’impact du travail étudiant salarié sur la réussite et la poursuite des études universitaires

• Tuesday 30 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  BACH L. (PSE) : The effect of dynastic motivations on firm development : Theory and Evidence from France

• Tuesday 30 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  BACH L. (PSE) : The effect of dynastic motivations on firm development : Theory and Evidence from France

• Tuesday 30 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  BACH L. (PSE) : The effect of dynastic motivations on firm development : Theory and Evidence from France

• Tuesday 23 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  FRIJTERS P. (Queensland University of Technology) : Groom price and female human capital: some empirical evidence

  Co-auteur(s) : A. Sharma

  Abstract

  This paper examines the effect of female human capital endowment on the groom price or dowry by using a newly available data set that was created by surveying the middleclass residents of Patna, Bihar. The estimates based on the OLS and 2SLS suggest the existence of positive association between the two variables for the sample under study. The result can be viewed as a positive; albeit, a small step towards settling the issue as to whether or not dowry is an obstacle to female human capital formation. Keywords: Dowry JEL Classifications: J12, J16, O12

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 23 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  FRIJTERS P. (Queensland University of Technology) : Groom price and female human capital: some empirical evidence

  Co-auteur(s) : A. Sharma

  Abstract

  This paper examines the effect of female human capital endowment on the groom price or dowry by using a newly available data set that was created by surveying the middleclass residents of Patna, Bihar. The estimates based on the OLS and 2SLS suggest the existence of positive association between the two variables for the sample under study. The result can be viewed as a positive; albeit, a small step towards settling the issue as to whether or not dowry is an obstacle to female human capital formation. Keywords: Dowry JEL Classifications: J12, J16, O12

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 23 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  FRIJTERS P. (Queensland University of Technology) : Groom price and female human capital: some empirical evidence

  Co-auteur(s) : A. Sharma

  Abstract

  This paper examines the effect of female human capital endowment on the groom price or dowry by using a newly available data set that was created by surveying the middleclass residents of Patna, Bihar. The estimates based on the OLS and 2SLS suggest the existence of positive association between the two variables for the sample under study. The result can be viewed as a positive; albeit, a small step towards settling the issue as to whether or not dowry is an obstacle to female human capital formation. Keywords: Dowry JEL Classifications: J12, J16, O12

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 16 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  RATHELOT R. (CREST) : Wrong origin or wrong neighborhood: Explaining lower labor market perfomance of French individuals of African origin

• Tuesday 16 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  RATHELOT R. (CREST) : Wrong origin or wrong neighborhood: Explaining lower labor market perfomance of French individuals of African origin

• Tuesday 16 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  RATHELOT R. (CREST) : Wrong origin or wrong neighborhood: Explaining lower labor market perfomance of French individuals of African origin

• Monday 15 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  CROWE C. (International Monetary Fund) : Irrational Exuberance in the US Housing Market: Were Evangelicals Left Behind?

• Monday 15 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  CROWE C. (International Monetary Fund) : Irrational Exuberance in the US Housing Market: Were Evangelicals Left Behind?

• Monday 15 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  CROWE C. (International Monetary Fund) : Irrational Exuberance in the US Housing Market: Were Evangelicals Left Behind?

• Tuesday 9 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  PRZEWORSKI A. (New York University) : Force, Wealth, and Elections

  Abstract

  Some countries, "failed states," are unable to establish any kind of a peaceful order. A few maintain order without holding elections. Many celebrate peaceful elections in which opposition is either not allowed at all or not given a chance to win. Finally, in some countries elections are competitive and peaceful. During most of modern history, civil peace was maintained when one political force consolidated its military power and potential challengers acquiesced to elections in which they had no chance to win: there is nothing new about "electoral authoritarianism." The shadow of violence fades only when people are wealthy enough that they do not want to bear the costs of ?fighting to increase their incomes. The paper analyzes why civil peace is frequently difficult to establish, why most often it emerges under the dominance of one party, and why some rulers allow competitive elections and leave office when they lose.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 9 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  PRZEWORSKI A. (New York University) : Force, Wealth, and Elections

  Abstract

  Some countries, "failed states," are unable to establish any kind of a peaceful order. A few maintain order without holding elections. Many celebrate peaceful elections in which opposition is either not allowed at all or not given a chance to win. Finally, in some countries elections are competitive and peaceful. During most of modern history, civil peace was maintained when one political force consolidated its military power and potential challengers acquiesced to elections in which they had no chance to win: there is nothing new about "electoral authoritarianism." The shadow of violence fades only when people are wealthy enough that they do not want to bear the costs of ?fighting to increase their incomes. The paper analyzes why civil peace is frequently difficult to establish, why most often it emerges under the dominance of one party, and why some rulers allow competitive elections and leave office when they lose.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 9 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  PRZEWORSKI A. (New York University) : Force, Wealth, and Elections

  Abstract

  Some countries, "failed states," are unable to establish any kind of a peaceful order. A few maintain order without holding elections. Many celebrate peaceful elections in which opposition is either not allowed at all or not given a chance to win. Finally, in some countries elections are competitive and peaceful. During most of modern history, civil peace was maintained when one political force consolidated its military power and potential challengers acquiesced to elections in which they had no chance to win: there is nothing new about "electoral authoritarianism." The shadow of violence fades only when people are wealthy enough that they do not want to bear the costs of ?fighting to increase their incomes. The paper analyzes why civil peace is frequently difficult to establish, why most often it emerges under the dominance of one party, and why some rulers allow competitive elections and leave office when they lose.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 2 June 2009 12:30-13:30

  JEDWAB R. (PSE) : The Political Economy of Roads in Kenya

  Co-auteur(s) : R. Burgess, E. Miguel & A. Morjaria

• Tuesday 26 May 2009 12:30-13:30

  ALGAN Y. (Sciences Po, PSE) : Regulation and Distrust

  Co-auteur(s) : P. Aghion, P. Cahuc and A. Shleifer

• Tuesday 19 May 2009 12:30-13:30

  CHIODI Vera (PSE) : Poverty Traps, Migration and Asset Accumulation in Rural Mexico

• Tuesday 12 May 2009 12:30-13:30

  CASSAN G. (PSE) : Manipulating one's ethnic identity : the Punjab Alienation of Land Act and the caste system

• Tuesday 5 May 2009 12:30-13:30

  DE CHAISEMARTIN C. (PSE) : How much are we ready to pay to fight Climate Change. A choice experiment approach

  Co-auteur(s) : T. Mahé & J. Jamison

  Abstract

  We explore the willingness-to-pay (WTP) to fight climate change in a choice experiment. Since tree planting prevents climate change, subjects are offered to choose between receiving a high amount of money or receiving a lower amount of money plus participating to tree planting action. This allows us to get an individual interval of the WTP to prevent climate change. We also set the experiment to control for framing effects: we measure whether subjects WTP is higher not to prevent a tree planting action (negative framing) than to contribute to it (positive framing). Finally, we measure subjects' individual characteristics like altruism and risk aversion with a questionnaire, to understand the determinants of WTP. The results show that WTP to prevent climate change is high: subjects are ready to give up half their gains to participate to a tree planting action. Women tend to have a higher WTP. We also find that both altruistic and self-interested motives can explain WTP. Surprisingly, their degree of knowledge of climate change related issues do not influence subjects WTP. Finally, when the choice is negatively phrased, WTP increases: subjects are ready to pay more not to make the number of trees planted decrease than to increase it. This suggests that negative eco-labelling might have a greater impact on consumer preferences than positive labels.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 28 April 2009 12:30-13:30

  CALVET L.E. (HEC Paris) : Portfolio diversification and rebalancing by individual investors

  Co-auteur(s) : J. Campbell et P. Sodini

• Tuesday 21 April 2009 12:30-13:30

  GADENNE L. (PSE) : Foreign influence, trade liberalization and the optimal path of tax transition

• Tuesday 14 April 2009 12:30-13:30

  BLASCO S. (CREST) : A Structural Model of the Unemployment Insurance Non Take-up

  Co-auteur(s) : F. Fontaine

• Tuesday 7 April 2009 12:30-13:30

  ETILE F. (INRA-ALISS et PSE) : Food Price Policies and the Distribution of Body Mass Index

  Abstract

  This paper uses French food-expenditure data to examine the effect of the local prices of 23 food-product categories on the distribution of Body Mass Index (BMI) in a sample of French adults. It is shown that the identification of price effects is in general not granted when individual physical activity is unobserved. However, identification is possible, when body weight is stationary, and the prices are orthogonal to both physical activity and the control variables correlated with the latter. Using quantile regressions, unconditional BMI distributions can then be simulated for various price policies. In the preferred scenario, increasing the price of alcohol, soft drinks, breaded proteins, pastries and desserts, snacks, and ready meals by 10%, and reducing the price of fruit and vegetables in brine by 10% would reduce the prevalence of overweight and obesity by 3.8 and 3.9 percentage points respectively.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 31 March 2009 12:30-13:30

  SCHMUTZ B. ( GREQAM) : I don't want you as a neighbour: what will the landlord do? A matching model of housing market discrimination with externalities

  Co-auteur(s) : P.P. Combes, B. Decreuse & A. Trannoy

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 24 March 2009 12:30-13:30

  BOBBA M. (PSE) : Scaling-up effects in social experiments

  Abstract

  The scaling-up process of social programs evaluated under Randomized Control Trials is likely to generate interaction effects among units that would challenge the internal validity of the experimental results. In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the extent to which the potential indirect effects associated with the nation-wide expansion of the Progresa program in Mexico may affect behavioral responses to the policy itself. More specifically, we make use of both the experimental design of the program and variations in the proportion of treated localities across regions in order to identify and estimate average treatment effects at different degrees of within-region treatment intensity. Results show that behavioral responses to the program appear systematically affected by the local geographical density of the treatment.

• Tuesday 17 March 2009 12:30-13:30

  MOGLIANI M. (PSE) : A Long-run Analysis of the Money Demand in Argentina: 1900-2006

  Co-auteur(s) : C. Winograd & G. Urga

• Tuesday 10 March 2009 12:30-13:30

  GUESNERIE R. (PSE) : Ecological intuition vs economic reason

• Tuesday 3 March 2009 12:30-13:30

  PARENT Gwenn (PSE) : Is there an "inverse" gender wage gap in Argentina: Evidence from the crisis period

• Tuesday 24 February 2009 12:30-13:00

  VALDENAIRE M. (PSE) : Are Private Schools More Efficient Than Public Schools? Evidence from France

• Tuesday 10 February 2009 12:30-13:30

  COULOMBEL N. (LVMT) : Tackling the urban sprawl issue - A Monocentric Analysis of Housing Budget Restrictions, Including and Without Transportation

  Abstract

  Considering the last surge in fuel prices, the policy to limit the share of housing expenses in the households’ budget, so as to secure their solvency, has been criticized. Supposedly, it induces people to get farther from the city center in search of cheaper housing prices, but with subsequent increased transportation costs that are often disregarded during the house search process. To address this issue, several researchers have advocated to set a constraint on the share of both housing and transportation expenditure. The present paper analyzes and compares the effects of the two policies on the main features of the city and on the households’ utility. The analysis is carried out within the classic monocentric model of urban economics. After a general analysis, an applied model is specified to capture the effects of each policy in straightforward formulae. I find that constraining housing expenses may increase the well-being of households. Additionally, both policies prove to be effective in reducing urban sprawl and thereby energy consumption. Thus the choice of the optimal policy will depend on the local authorities’ objectives. Keywords: monocentric model, urban economics, housing expenses, transportation expenses, housing policy, location efficient mortgage

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 3 February 2009 12:30-13:30

  BENHABIB J. (New York University) : The distribution of wealth and fiscal policy in economies with finitely lived agents

  Co-auteur(s) : A. Bisin

  Abstract

  We study the dynamics of the distribution of wealth in an overlapping generation economy with ?finitely lived agents and intergenerational transmission of wealth. Financial markets are incomplete, exposing agents to both labor income and capital income risk. We show that the stationary wealth distribution is a Pareto distribution in the right tail.and that it is capital income risk, rather than labor income, that drives the properties of the right tail of the wealth distribution. We also study analytically the dependence of the distribution of wealth, of wealth inequality in particular, on various ?fiscal policy instruments like capital income taxes and estate taxes. We show that, contrary to Becker and Tomes (1979), capital income and estate taxes can significantly reduce wealth inequality. Finally, we study the effects of different degrees of social mobility on the wealth distribution.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 27 January 2009 12:30-13:50

  REMPLACE PAR SEMINAIRE DE RECRUTEMENT

• Tuesday 20 January 2009 12:30-13:30

  CANOVA L. (PSE) : An ex-ante impact evaluation of the implementation of the Revenu de Solidarité Active by microsimulation techniques

  Co-auteur(s) : L. Piccoli et A. Spadaro

• Tuesday 13 January 2009 12:30-13:30

  PONTHIERE G. (PSE) : Optimal tax policy and expected longevity: a mean and variance utility approach

  Co-auteur(s) : M.L. Leroux

  Abstract

  This paper studies the normative problem of redistribution between agents who can influence their survival probability through private health spending, but who differ in their attitude towards the risks involved in the lotteries of life to be chosen. For that purpose, a two-period model is developed, where agents' preferences on lotteries of life can be represented by a mean and variance utility function allowing, unlike the expected utility form, some sensitivity to what Allais (1953) calls the "dispersion of psychological values". It is shown that if agents ignore the impact of their health spending on the return of their savings, the decentralization of the first-best utilitarian optimum requires intergroup lump-sum transfers and group-specific taxes on health spending. Under asym- metric information, we find that subsidizing health expenditures may be optimal as a way to solve the incentive problem. Keywords: longevity, risk, lotteries of life, non-expected utility theory, moments of utility theory, health spending. JEL codes: D81, H21, I12, I18, J18.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 6 January 2009 12:30-13:30

  ZUCMAN G. (PSE) : Les hauts patrimoines fuient-ils l'ISF ? Une estimation sur la période 1995-2006

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 16 December 2008 12:30-13:30

  APOUEY B. (PSE) : Winning Big But Feeling No Better? The effect of Lottery Prizes on Physical and Mental Health

  Co-auteur(s) : A. Clark

• Tuesday 9 December 2008 12:30-13:30

  MOSCHION J. (Université Paris 1-Panthéon-Sorbonne) : Reconciling work and family life: the effect of the French paid parental leave

  Abstract

  In France, having more than two children has a causal negative impact on mothers’ labour supply. The question addressed in this paper is whether the paid parental leave alter this effect. To address this issue, we focus on a reform that modified the conditions in which labour decisions are taken. In July 1994, the Allocation parentale d’éducation was extended to parents of two children (among which one is less than three years old). We show that after the reform, that is when families of two and more than two children have the same incentive to take a paid parental leave, having more than two children has no longer a negative effect on the participation probability of mothers. In addition, this is particularly true for women having no more than the school-leaving certificate, which happen to be the main recipients of the benefit.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 2 December 2008 12:30-13:30

  GAUTHIER S. (ENSAE) : The optimal grouping of commodities for indirect taxation

  Co-auteur(s) : P. Belan & G. Laroque

  Abstract

  Indirect taxes contribute to a sizeable part of government revenues around the world. Typically there are few different tax rates, and the goods are partitioned into classes associated with each rate. The present paper studies how to group the goods in these few classes. We take as given the number of tax rates and study the optimal aggregation (or classification) of commodities of the fiscal authority in a second best setup. The results are illustrated on data from the United Kingdom. Keywords: indirect tax, Ramsey, aggregation. JEL classification numbers: H21, H23

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 25 November 2008 12:30-13:30

  BACH L. (PSE) : What is the effect of additional political mandates on legislators' efforts ? Evidence from France

• Tuesday 18 November 2008 12:30-13:30

  COMOLA M. (PSE) : Testing Unilateral versus Bilateral Link Formation

  Co-auteur(s) : M. Fafchamps

• Thursday 6 November 2008 12:30-13:30

  FALLY T. (PSE) : Global Sourcing under Imperfect Capital Markets

  Co-auteur(s) : J. Carluccio

• Tuesday 4 November 2008

  The session was canceled.

  *

• Tuesday 28 October 2008 12:30-13:30

  GALBIATI R. (Université Bocconi) : The deterrent effects of prison: Evidence form a natural experiment

  Co-auteur(s) : F. Drago & P. Vertova

  Abstract

  In this paper we test for the theory of deterrence. We exploit the natural experiment provided by the Collective Clemency Bill passed by the Italian Parliament in July 2006. As a consequence of the provisions of the bill, expected punishment to former inmates recommitting a crime can be considered as good as randomly assigned. Based on a unique data set on post-release behaviour of former inmates, we find that an additional month in expected sentence reduces the propensity to recommit a crime by 1.24 percent: this corroborates the general deterrence hypothesis. However, this effect depends on the time previously served in prison: the behavioural response to an additional month of expected sentence decreases with the length of the spell in prison. This second result can be hardly reconciled with the specific deterrence hypothesis according to which a stronger past experience of punishment should increase the sensitivity to future expected sanctions.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 21 October 2008 12:30-13:30

  GRENET J. (PSE) : Le mois de naissance influence-t-il les trajectoires scolaires et professionnelles ? Une évaluation sur données françaises

• Tuesday 14 October 2008 12:30-13:30

  ALDASHEV G. (University of Namur) : Awareness and AIDS: A Political Economy Model

  Co-auteur(s) : J.M. Baland

• Tuesday 7 October 2008 12:30-13:30

  OUSS A. (ENS) : The Effects of Incarceration Length on Recidivism: a natural experiment approach, using Bastille Day presidential pardons

  Co-auteur(s) : E. Maurin

• Tuesday 30 September 2008 12:30-13:30

  LANDAIS C. (PSE) : The elasticity of taxable income and the optimal taxation of top incomes in France

  Co-auteur(s) : P.Y. Cabannes

• Tuesday 23 September 2008 12:30-13:30

  HUILLERY E. (PSE) : Les colonies ont-elles coûté cher à la France ? L'exemple de l'Afrique Occidentale Française

  Abstract

  Mots clefs : colonisation, budgets, Afrique de l’Ouest JEL classification: N10, O16, H50

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 1 July 2008 13:00-14:00

  VALDENAIRE M. (EHESS) : *

• Tuesday 24 June 2008 12:30-13:30

  GRENET J. (PSE) : Les managers français connaissent-ils leurs entreprises ? Les leçons de l’enquête REPONSE

  Co-auteur (s) : P. Askenazy

  Abstract

  Dans cet article, nous explorons systématiquement les écueils potentiels liés à l’utilisation des enquêtes sur les pratiques organisationnelles et technologiques des entreprises. Pour cela, nous développons une méthodologie générique pour estimer, sous certaines hypothèses, le niveau de véracité ou de cohérence des déclarations des dirigeants enquêtés, en extrayant l’information issue du rapprochement des réponses de couples ou de triplets de représentants de la direction travaillant dans différents établissements d’une même entreprise. Appliquée à l’enquête française REPONSE pour les aspects généraux de l’entreprise (taille, appartenance à un groupe, structure de l’actionnariat, etc.), notre méthodologie suggère que les dirigeants donnent en général des réponses plutôt cohérentes d’une question prise isolément à une autre et que les réponses sont d’autant plus précises que la question est simple et qu’elle relève du champ de compétences du dirigeant interrogé. On remarque cependant que les réponses aux questions portant sur les relations sociales et la représentation des syndicats dans l’entreprise sont relativement peu fiables et que la prise en compte des erreurs commises par les dirigeants conduit à réviser sensiblement à la fois le niveau et l’évolution d’un certain nombre de variables, telles que le poids des différents syndicats de salariés dans les entreprises. Nos résultats montrent également qu’on ne peut exclure que la subjectivité du répondant oriente les réponses à certaines questions portant sur les pratiques organisationnelles et technologiques : on remarque notamment que les dirigeants classés comme plutôt hostiles aux syndicats déclarent plus souvent la présence simultanée de pratiques et de technologies innovantes que leurs homologues classés comme plutôt favorables aux syndicats. Nous concluons notre étude en suggérant un certain nombre de pistes pour améliorer la fiabilité de ce type d’enquêtes. JEL Classification L23, O33 Mots-clés biais de réponse, clusters managériaux, changement technologique et organisationnel

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 17 June 2008 13:00-14:00

  MARBOT C. (CREST-INSEE) : An Evaluation of the French Tax Reduction for In-Home Services

• Tuesday 10 June 2008 13:00-14:00

  FOURNIER J. M. (PSE) : Migration, risk and alleviation of vulnerability in rural China

• Tuesday 3 June 2008 12:30-13:30

  AVVISATI F. (PSE) : Diploma Free-Riders

  Abstract

  This paper documents large misclassification errors for employer reports of workers' educational attainment in a French employer-employee survey data set. I show that employers' errors have consequences on workers' wages. Results indicate that those who falsely appear as having a given diploma experience significant wage gains. Causal and non-causal interpretations of these estimates are discussed.

• Tuesday 27 May 2008 12:30-13:30

  KAMBAYASHI R. (Hitotsubashi University) : Deferred Compensation: Evidence from Employer-Employee Matched Data from Japan

  Co-auteur (s) : Kyoji Fukao, Daiji Kawaguchi,Hyeog Ug Kwon, Young Gak Kim, and Izumi Yokoyama

  Abstract

  Wage increases, along with job tenure, are one of the most robust empirical regularities found in labor economics. Several theories explain these empirical regularities, and such theories offer sharp empirical predictions for the relation between productivity-tenure and wage-tenure profiles. The human capital model, with cost and benefit sharing between workers and employers, predicts a steeper productivity-tenure profile than wage-tenure profile. The matching quality model predicts that the two profiles will overlap. Theories that involve the information asymmetry between employers and employees predict a steeper wage-tenure profile than productivity-tenure profile to induce workers’ effort and enhance efficiency. This paper first estimate the establishment-level production function using the total wage bill as a measure of labor input using employer-employee matched data from Japan. After conditioning on the total wage bill, those establishments with more of aged workers produce less. Then we estimate the productivity-tenure profile and the wage-tenure profile by estimating the plant-level production function and the wage equation. These estimations offer a comprehensive test for the relative applicability of the two theories on the wage-tenure profile. Estimation results indicate a steeper wage-tenure profile than productivity-tenure profile and point to the relative importance of the deferred wage payment contract. Key Words: Wage, Productivity, Employer-Employee Matched Data, Japan JEL Classification Code: J24, J31, J34

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 20 May 2008 12:30-13:30

  ROY D. (PSE) : Obtention d'une place en crèche, retour à l'emploi des mères et perception du développement de l'enfant : premiers résultats d'une enquête à Grenoble

  Co-auteur (s) : E. Maurin

• Tuesday 13 May 2008 12:30-13:30

  CHARNOZ P. (PSE) : Evaluation du dispositif de Zones franches urbaines à partir de l'enquête emploi

• Tuesday 6 May 2008 12:30-13:30

  CASTANHEIRA M. (Université Libre de Bruxelles) : One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation

  Co-auteur (s) : L. Bouton

  Abstract

  This paper compares the properties of three electoral systems when voters have imperfect information. Imperfect information blurs voter decisions and may divorce the electoral outcome from the true preferences of the electorate. The challenge for electoral design is therefore to translate the (sometimes contradictory) elements of information dispersed in the electorate into the most efficient aggregate outcome. We propose a novel model of multi-candidate elections in Poisson games, and show that Approval Voting produces a unique equilibrium that is fully efficient: the candidate who wins the election is the one preferred by a majority of the electorate under full information. By contrast, traditional systems such as Plurality and Runoff elections cannot cope satisfactorily with information imperfections. JEL Classification: C72, D72, D81, D82 Keywords: Information Aggregation; Multicandidate Elections; Approval Voting; Poisson Games

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 April 2008 12:30-13:30

  OUAZAD A. (PSE) : The White Flight: Strategies of Real Estate Brokers

• Tuesday 22 April 2008 12:30-13:30

  BOSSUROY T. (PSE) : Ethnicity and election outcomes in Africa: empirical evidence from Ghana

• Tuesday 15 April 2008 12:30-13:30

  LEQUIEN L. (INSEE) : The impact of parental leave duration on later career

  Abstract

  We investigate the existence of causal mechanisms from parental leave duration to subsequent wages. Our instrumental variable is a French reform giving financial incentives to take a parental leave. Two administrative datasets provide us with information on wages and familial background from 1976 to 2005. In our context, panel data estimations potentially suffer from unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity and selection. We implement an innovative procedure proposed by Semykina and Wooldridge (2005) to take into account these three problems simultaneously. We find that parental leave duration has a significant negative causal impact on later wages. Keywords: Parental leave duration, wages, selection, endogeneity, panel data JEL Classification: C23, J38, J68

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 8 April 2008 12:30-13:30

  MOCCERO D. N. (EHESS) : Foreign Bank Presence and Credit Volatility: The Case of Latin American Countries

  Co-auteur (s) : M. Haouat & R. Sosa Navarro

• Tuesday 1 April 2008 12:30-13:30

  GURGAND M. (PSE) : A large scale experiment: wages and educational expansion in France

  Co-auteur (s) : E. Maurin

• Tuesday 25 March 2008 12:30-13:30

  JEDWAB R. (PSE) : Household Income and Investments in Child Health and Education in Ivory Coast

  Co-auteur (s) : D. Cogneau

  Abstract

  We study the drastic cut of the administered cocoa producer price in 1990 Cote d’Ivoire and investigate the extent to which cocoa producers’ children suffered from this severe income shock in terms of school enrollment, increased labor, height stature and sickness. Comparing pre-crisis (1985- 88) data and post-crisis (1993) data, we propose a difference-in-difference within-village strategy in order to identify the causal effect of family income on children outcomes. We find a strong impact of family income variation for at least two out of the four variables we examine. JEL classification codes: I21, I12, J13, J22, 012, O15, Q12

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 18 March 2008 12:30-13:30

  RECUERO VIRTO L. (Télécom Paristech - SES) : Cellular demand analysis in South Africa: Urban vs rural patterns of consumption

  Co-auteur (s) : F. Gasmi & M. Ivaldi

  Abstract

  We analyze demand for prepaid cellular voice and short message service (SMS) in South Africa by means of a demand-and-supply structural model based on a multinomial specification fitted to a cross-sectional data set on Vodacom customers collected in 2005. We find that consumers are very sen- sitive to changes in prices, with higher price elasticities than those typically found in developed countries. Consumers attach a higher value to commu- nications during peak hours but since these are priced highly, they are as much as twice more elastic than off-peak communications. In relative terms, demand for communications during peak hours is more elastic for urban than for rural consumers, while the reverse can be said about demand for off-peak hours. The highest valuations are those placed by rural consumers on work- ing hour communications. A policy implication of our analysis is that while in terms of access cellular deployment in South Africa has gone a long way into bridging the gap between the first and second economies, in terms of usage if market organizations or regulatory institutions were to encour- age further investment in network availability in rural areas this could be rewarding both for the firm and its rural customers. JEL-codes: C31, D12, D40, L96, R00 Key words: Cellular demand, discrete choice model, price elasticity November 2007

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 11 March 2008 12:30-13:30

  STICHNOTH H. (PSE) : Good-bye Lenin on Our Bank Account? Within-Household Allocation in East and West German Couples

• Tuesday 4 March 2008 12:30-13:30

  FORSE M. (CMH) : Perceptions des inégalités économiques et sentiments de justice sociale

• Tuesday 26 February 2008 12:30-13:30

  CHARLOT S. (INRA) : The impact of Local Taxation on Property Prices

  Co-auteur (s) : S. Paty & M. Visalli

  Abstract

  This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of local taxation on property prices in two French urban areas: Dijon and Besançon, using data on property taxation and real estate transactions over the period 1994-2004. Our empirical methodology pairs transactions in the same spatial environment to estimate the impact of property taxation, controlling the local public spending effect. Spatial differencing and IV method allow us to compare sales across municipalities boundaries and to control for the endogeneity of local taxation and public spending. Our estimation results suggest that local property taxation has the expected negative impact on property prices, but not significant. Key words: fiscal capitalisation, local taxation, property prices, borders. JEL classification: H2; R2

  Full text [pdf]

• Sunday 24 February 2008 12:30-13:30

  *

• Tuesday 19 February 2008 12:30-13:30

  GREULICH A. (IRES) : Macroeconomic growth and the impact on female labor participation. Does panel data confirm the hypothesis of a Feminization U?

• Tuesday 12 February 2008 12:30-13:30

  MAYER T. (Univ. de Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) : Detection Of Local Interactions From The Spatial Pattern Of Names In France

  Co-auteur (s) : K. Head

  Abstract

  Using data on the geographic distribution of names in France, we investigate the social transmission of parental preferences. Drawing on recent work on nonmarket interactions, we develop a linear discrete choice model that relates choices made in one location to those made in nearby areas. We explain the shares of parents that give their children Saint, Arabic, and American-type names. We also examine the effect of distance between locations on differences in naming patterns. We find that the importance of geographic distance is declining over time while differences in class and national origins have increasing explanatory power.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 5 February 2008 12:30-13:30

  ETILE F. (INRA-ALISS) : Social Norms, Ideal Body Weight and Food Attitudes

  Abstract

  This paper uses French data on ideal body weight and food attitudes to analyse the role of social norms in the individual's weight control problem. A proxy measure of social norms is calculated by averaging individual perceptions of the ideal body mass index (BMI) over all observations within a reference group. Testing for dfferent definitions of the reference group, we find that individual representations of ideal body shape are differentiated mainly along gender and age lines. Social norms regarding body shape have a significant effect on perceptions of ideal BMI only for those women who want to lose weight, with an elasticity close to 0.5. For many women and for all men, ideal BMI is almost exclusively determined by habitual BMI. Last, ideal BMI predicts a number of attitudes toward food, while social norms do not. These results suggest that promoting medical norms regarding body shape should have little effect on individual food attitudes. JEL codes: C21, D11, D12, I10, Z13. Keywords: obesity, body mass index, ideal weight, social norms, social interactions.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 January 2008 12:30-13:30

  DO Q. A. (Harvard University) : Keeping dictators honest: The role of population

  Co-auteur (s) : F. R. Campante

  Abstract

  In order to explain the apparently paradoxical presence of acceptable governance in many non-democratic regimes, economists and political scientists have focused mostly on institutions acting as de facto checks and balances. In this paper, we propose that population plays a similar role in guaranteeing the quality of governance and redistribution. We argue and demonstrate with historical evidence that the concentration of population around the policy making center serves as an insurgency threat to a dictatorship, inducing it to yield to more redistribution and better governance. We bring this centered concept of population concentration to the data through the lenses of four natural axioms, prove the existence and uniqueness of its measure, and show its empirical superiority to existing measures. The evidence supports our predictions: only in the sample of autocracies, population concentration around the capital city is positively associated with better governance and more redistribution (proxied by post-tax inequality), in OLS and IV regressions. Finally, we provide arguments to dismiss possible reverse causation as well as alternative, non-political economy explanations of such regularity, discuss the general applicability of our index and conclude with policy implications.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 January 2008 12:30-13:30

  LEDEZMA I. (PSE) : Competition, innovation and distance to frontier

  Co-auteur (s) : B. Amable & L. Demmou

• Tuesday 15 January 2008 12:30-13:30

  *

  LE SEMINAIRE EST ANNULE SUITE A LA PRESENTATION DU NOUVEL OPUSCULE DU CEPREMAP (N°10 : LES PÔLES DE COMPETITIVITE)

• Tuesday 8 January 2008 12:30-13:30

  HUILLERY E. (PSE) : The long term effect of European settlement within former French West Africa: Did prosperous areas fall behind?

• Tuesday 18 December 2007 12:30-13:30

  ALEKSYNSKA M. (Universita Luigi Bocconi) : Civic Participation of Immigrants: Culture Transmission and Assimilation

  Abstract

  This paper studies culture transmission and assimilation of immigrants in the European Union with respect to civic participation. Culture assimilation is analysed within synthetic cohort methodology and by testing whether civic participation of natives affects immigrants’ participation. Culture transmission is studied by testing whether civic participation at the origin matters as well. To account for immigrants’ self-selection and to construct relevant reference groups, immigrants are matched to natives and compatriots who did not migrate. There is limited evidence for transmission of civic participation culture, although certain home country characteristics continue influencing participation behaviour of migrants. Instead, culture assimilation takes place. JEL Classification: J61, Z13 Keywords: immigration, civic participation, assimilation, culture transmission, social capital

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 11 December 2007 12:30-13:30

  LETURCQ M. (EHESS) : Le PaCS. La réforme de l'imposition des partenaires de 2005. Analyse des effets aux niveaux national et régional

• Tuesday 4 December 2007 12:30-13:30

  BEHAGHEL L. (INRA) : Innovation and Skill Upgrading: The Role of External vs Internal Labour Markets

  Co-auteur (s) : E. Caroli et E. Walkowiak

• Tuesday 27 November 2007 12:30-13:30

  CARBONNIER C. (THEMA - Université de Cergy-Pontoise) : Spouse labor supply: fiscal incentive and income effect, evidence from French fully joint income tax system

  Abstract

  The aim of the present paper is to measure the labor market participation elasticity with respect to income tax rates. A very complete data base of more than 500 000 observations a year is used. This data base is a large sample of the French income tax returns. The case of spouses is studied by comparing - for very similar couples - the probability of the secondary earner to participate in the labor market depending on the other foyer incomes on the one hand and depending on the tax rate which would apply on the income of this potential work on the other hand. Results find labor market participation elasticity with respect to income tax rate equal to -0.04 and with respect to income equal to -0.30. That for, it is outlined that joint income tax schedules have a negative impact on the secondary earners participation to labor market. As secondary earners are mainly women in France, joint income tax schedules have a negative impact on women participation to the labor market. Moreover, differences are detailed. Different elasticities are measured for the different population categories. Two facts appear, they confirm each other partially. On the one hand, there is a difference between spouses more or less constrained to participate in the labor market. The more constrained ones present elasticities weaker than the less constrained ones. On the other hand, there is a major difference between the capital holders and the others. The capital holders’ elasticity with respect to income tax rate is higher than their elasticity with respect to income. The opposite occurred for the other households. Key words: Labor supply; Time allocation; Fiscal incidence. JEL classification: H22; H31; J32.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 20 November 2007 12:30-13:30

  DE LA RUPELLE M. (PSE) : Social Status, Land Rights and Rural-Urban Migration: the Case of China

• Tuesday 13 November 2007 12:30-13:30

  KESLAIR F. (London School of Economics and Political Science) : Special Educational Needs : Evaluation d'une politique destinée aux élèves en difficulté en Angleterre

  Co-auteur (s) : E. Maurin et S. McNally

• Tuesday 6 November 2007 12:30-13:30

  KAMINSKI J. (Toulouse School of Economics) : Cotton Reform and Cotton Boost: an Empirical Analysis in Burkina Faso

  Co-auteur (s) : A. Thomas

  Abstract

  Over the last 10 years, Burkina Faso experienced a reform of its cotton sector, and is now the first African cotton producer and exporter. The cotton boost consisted of a fast expansion of cotton areas through the growth of land shares allocated to cotton (and new producers), together with a global increase in total cultivated land. In this paper, we present an empirical setting to determine the contribution of total farmland changes in the increase of land dedicated to cotton, where both processes are represented by ordered endogenous variables. We apply this setting to the data that we collected in rural Burkina Faso in March 2006. From observed and subjective variables about the evolution of farming systems, we are able to identify both direct and indirect effects of the cotton reform on the extensive growth of cotton seed production: mechanization and technical assistance, labour intensification, enhanced managerial abilities (learning by doing and better environment for farmers), production incentives arising from the new local organizations of producers, guarantees and confidence stemming from the sector and an easier access to agricultural inputs. JEL Codes: N57, 013, O33, Q15, Q18 Keywords: Parastatal, Burkina Faso’s cotton, land extension, privatization

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 30 October 2007 12:30-13:30

  DE CURRAIZE Y. (Institut National de la Jeunesse et de l'Education Populaire (INJEP)) : Une expérience naturelle sur l'offre de travail des mères isolées: l'introduction de l'API en 1976

  Co-auteur (s) : H. Périvier

• Tuesday 23 October 2007 12:30-13:30

  BIANCHI M. (PSE) : Financial development, entrepreneurship, and job satisfaction

  Abstract

  In this paper, I show both theoretically and empirically that greater ?nancial development increases the job satisfaction of the self-employed, relative to employees. Financial development favors both job cre- ation and matching between talents and occupations. Hence, in more ?nancially-developed countries, individuals choose to become self-employed because of their talent, rather than for a lack of better opportunities. In addition, the e¤ects of ?nancial development are not only mone- tary. Increasing ?nancial development makes the self-employed rela- tively more satis?ed mainly because it allows them to enjoy greater independence in their job. Keywords: Financial development; entrepreneurship; job satisfac- tion. JEL codes: G20, J23, J28.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 16 October 2007 12:30-13:30

  BAS M. (PSE) : Trade, Technology Adoption and Wage Inequalities

• Tuesday 9 October 2007 12:30-13:30

  BACH L. (PSE) : Quel est l'impact des transmissions familiales sur la performance des entreprises ? Le cas de la France entre 1997 et 2002

• Tuesday 2 October 2007 12:30-13:30

  PHILIPPON T. (New York univ.) : Financiers vs. Engineers: Should the Financial Sector be Taxed or Subsidized?

• Tuesday 25 September 2007 12:30-13:30

  BREDA T. (ENS) : L'effet des syndicats français sur le niveau des salaires

• Tuesday 18 September 2007 12:30-13:30

  OUAZAD A. (EHESS) : Assessed by a Teacher Like Me: Race, Gender and Subjective Evaluations

• Tuesday 17 July 2007 12:30-13:30

  BILGEL F. (EHESS) : The Political Economy of Presumed Consent: A Cross-country Analysis of Cadaveric Donation

• Tuesday 10 July 2007 12:30-13:30

  GUECHEVA M. (PSE) : Experience and Growth

• Tuesday 26 June 2007 13:00-14:00

  LANDAIS C. (PSE) : Les hauts revenus en France (1998-2006) : Une explosion des inégalités ?

• Tuesday 12 June 2007 12:30-13:30

  SAFIR A. (EHESS) : Temporary migration and labor supply responses to climatic shocks in rural India

  Séance initialement prévue le 05/06/2007

• Tuesday 5 June 2007 12:30-13:30

  SAUZE D. (Univ. de Paris 1) : Les stratégies de recours par les entreprises des CDD en France : une analyse économétrique sur données d'entreprise (1985-2000)

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 May 2007 12:30-13:30

  ANDRE P. (EHESS) : Redoublement et déscolarisations au Sénégal

• Tuesday 22 May 2007 12:30-13:30

  MAHJOUB M. B. (Univ. de Paris 1) : The Treatment Effect of Grade Repetitions

• Tuesday 15 May 2007 12:30-13:30

  GROSSMAN J. (Princeton univ.) : The effects of mentoring children in schools

• Tuesday 24 April 2007 12:30-13:30

  LINNEMAYR S. (PSE) : Reducing Child Malnutrition in Senegal through Community Intervention Programs: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

• Tuesday 17 April 2007 12:30-13:30

  FACK G. (PSE) : Are Fiscal Incentives towards Charitable Giving Efficient ? Evidence from France

• Tuesday 3 April 2007 12:30-13:30

  Le lunch séminaire d'économie appliquée est remplacé par la présentation du nouvel opuscule du CEPREMAP de J.P. LAFFARGUE

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 27 March 2007 12:30-13:30

  ZUBER S. (GREMAQ) : Transferts entre générations et équité

  Co-auteur (s) : A. Bommier, J. Bourdieu, R. Lee, T. Miller & A. Suwa-Eisenmann

  Abstract

  The Welfare State is generally thought to transfer resources from young and future generations to old ones. This opinion is however based on a narrow view of the transfer system that focuses on pensions and elderly care programs. Our paper shows that taking into account downward educational transfers modifies the intergenerational picture. Generations born between 1910 and 1920 who benefitted most of the public pension scheme also paid large educational transfers to their children and grand-children. Younger generations (born between 1990 and 2000) who will pay substantial upward transfers to their parents are going to receive educational transfers of similar size. Ultimately, generations born between 1950 and 1960 are the least favoured but their losses remain low compared to the income growth that educational investments have presumably created. Sensitivity analysis partially changes the magnitude and the timing of transfers but the general picture remains the same: when upward and downward transfers are both included, there is no glaring evidence that younger generations are treated unfairly. Keywords: intergenerational transfers, generational accounts, education, pensions. JEL Classification: H0, H52, H55.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 20 March 2007 12:30-13:30

  VALDENAIRE M. (PSE) : Pupil Mobility and School Choice. Theory and evidence from England and France

• Tuesday 13 March 2007 12:30-13:30

  LE GRAND F. (PSE) : Imperfect market and the yield curve

  Co-auteurs : E. Challe, X. Ragot

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 6 March 2007 12:30-13:30

  PARENT G. (PSE) : Wage Inequalities Decompositions in Argentina (1999-2003): Analysis by regions, industries, education and gender

• Tuesday 27 February 2007 12:30-13:30

  AVVISATI F. (ENS) : Job Flows and Worker Flows in France (1996-2005): New Evidence and Micro-Macro Links

  Abstract

  In dynamic labour markets the yearly employment growth rate con- ceals massive worker flows in and out of establishments and results from pronounced heterogeneity of behaviour at the establishment-level. We document the magnitude of labour market flows for France, based on an employer-employee data set spanning 10 years from 1996 to 2005. This leads to new results related to the time-series behaviour of our measures. We find that job reallocations are strongly procyclical, and document a marked increase in job instability over the last ten years, related to the rise of employment and instability within the tertiary sector. Finally, we test some hypotheses about how the evolution of aggregate flows over the business cycle results from plant-level behaviour. JEL Classification: J23, J63; D21; E32. Keywords: accessions, separations, job creations, job destructions, em- ployment instability.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 20 February 2007 12:30-13:30

  BOSSUROY T. (EHESS) : Intergenerational mobility across time in five African countries

  Co-auteur (s) : D. Cogneau &V. Hiller

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 13 February 2007 12:30-13:30

  PUHANI P. A. (Leibniz Universität Hannover) : Privatization and changes in the wage structure

  Co-auteur (s) : B. Melly

  Abstract

  We investigate wage and employment effects using person-level firm based data sets in a privatised and non-privatised public sector firm in the same country. Our observation period covers the years immediately before and after privatisation. Hence we can analyse before-after effects of privatisation controlling for individual and time fixed effects and allowing for firm specific trends. The investigated situation comes very close to a natural experiment for switching workers from the public to the private sector, as the change in the wage regime coincides with substantial losses in market share of the privatised firm but not of the non-privatised firm. We find significant changes in the wage structure in the privatised, but not in the non-privatised firm. The distribution of wages and of wage growth became significantly wider after privatisation. Conditioning on the characteristics of the workers, we find that younger employees and those with shorter tenure had gained from privatisation. There is also evidence that highskilled gained relative to middle-skilled workers. Surprisingly, low-skilled workers also gained; this seems to be a compensation given by the firm in order to increase the acceptance of privatisation. JEL classification: J3, J45, L33 Keywords : privatisation, competition, labor markets, wages, wage distributions

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 6 February 2007 12:30-13:30

  TOUBAL F. (Univ. de Paris 1) : Cultural proximity and trade

  Co-auteurs : G. J. Felbermayr

  Abstract

  Cultural proximity may influence bilateral imports through a preference and a tradecost channel. In empirical gravity models, conventional measures such as common language or religion fail to separately identify those channels. We use bilateral score data from the Eurovision Song Contest, a huge pan-European television show, to construct a measure of cultural proximity that correlates strongly with conventional indicators. Its statistical properties allow to identify the trade-cost and preference channels. For trade in differentiated goods, we find evidence for both channels, with the former accounting for about 65% of the total effect. There is no preference effect for homogeneous goods. (JEL Codes: F12, F15, Z10. Keywords: International Trade, Gravity Equation, Cultural Proximity, Identification.)

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 30 January 2007 12:30-13:30

  HUILLERY E. (PSE) : Le poids de l'histoire : l'impact des investissements coloniaux sur les trajectoires de développement en Afrique de l'Ouest

  Abstract

  To what extend did colonial public investments influence current regional inequalities in French-speaking West Africa? This paper uses the differences in development outcomes across areas of the former French West Africa to show the existence of colonial long term effects on development paths. It innovates in underlying the role of public investments rather than the more general role of institutions. To correct from potential biases, I take carefully into account the districts’ geographical and pre-colonial characteristics and use the spatial discontinuities of colonial investments policy to control for potential districts’ unobservable characteristics. Results show that colonial investments in education, health and public works are a strong determinant of current development of former French West Africa’s districts. They explain 12% of current stunting rate, 32% of current school attendance rate, and around 40% of current electricity, water tap and modern combustible equipment rates. The nature of public investments also matters: each type of current performance has been more specifically determined by the corresponding colonial investments. Colonial public policies had thus very persistent effects and played a strong spatial discriminating role.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 23 January 2007 12:30-13:30

  Séance remplacée par la présentation du nouvel ouvrage du CEPREMAP

• Tuesday 16 January 2007 12:30-13:30

  COMOLA M. (Univ. Pompeu Fabra) : Network Structure in Risk Sharing Arrangements: Evidence from Rural Tanzania

  Abstract

  Rural households in developing countries manage their exposure to risk and stabilize consumption through informal insurance arrangements. This paper approaches risk-sharing arrangements from a network perspective, investigating how risk-sharing networks are formed. When agents form a new link they also gain access to the larger network of partner’s friends and friends of these friends. I test the hypothesis that agents not only take into account the wealth of their direct partners, but also consider the benefits they would get from the net of indirect contacts. A network formation model with full heterogeneity among agents is first presented, following Jackson and Wolinsky (1996), an estimation procedure is then proposed and applied to data on rural Tanzania. Results show that agents take into account not only potential partners’ characteristics, but also their social connections. This suggests that risk sharing partners are not short-sighted, but actually consider the net advantage of potential links, evaluating also indirect benefits deriving from changes in their relative position with respect to all other agents. This paper contributes to both network theory and literature on risk sharing, in that it proposes an innovative procedure to estimate endogenous network formation models, and also provides evidence that indirect contacts have an explanatory value disregarded by all previous studies which are focused on direct relations only.

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 9 January 2007 12:30-13:30

  LECHEVALIER S. (EHESS) : Collaborative R&D in the robot technology in Japan : an inquiry based on patent data analysis (1991-2004)

  Co-auteur(s) : Y. IKEDA & J. NISHIMURA

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 19 December 2006 12:30-13:30

  AUBIER M. (PSE) : Could workplace accidents foster employment? The incentive role of the tarification of workers’ compensation

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 12 December 2006 12:30-13:30

  FALLY T. (PSE) : Credit Constraints as a Barrier to the Entry and Post-Entry Growth of Firms: Lessons from Firm-Level Cross Country Panel Data

  Co-auteur (s) : P. Aghion et S. Scarpetta

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 5 December 2006 12:30-13:30

  LEUVEN E. (CREST) : *

• Tuesday 28 November 2006 12:30-13:30

  OUAZAD A. (PSE) : What Makes a Grade ? Respective Contributions of Pupils, Peers and Schools in Achievement

• Tuesday 21 November 2006 12:30-13:30

  BACH L. (PSE) : Optimal savings' tax credits with credit constraints: theory and evidence

• Tuesday 14 November 2006 12:30-14:00

  COGNEAU D. (DIAL) : L’Afrique des Inégalités : où conduit l’histoire

  La discussion sera introduite par J. F. BAYART (Directeur de recherche CNRS/CERI)

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 7 November 2006 12:30-13:30

  DOBBELAERE S. (Ghent univ.) : Cross-sectional heterogeneity in production function coefficients and market imperfections

  Co-auteurs : J. Mairesse

• Tuesday 24 October 2006 12:30-13:30

  HAAN P. (German institute for economic research) : Optimal income taxation of lone mothers: an empirical comparison for Britain and Germany

  Co-auteurs : R. Blundell, M. Brewer and A. Shephard

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 17 October 2006 12:30-13:30

  CARBONNIER C. (PSE) : Décentralisation, agglomération de communes et concurrence fiscale locale, illustrations théoriques

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 10 October 2006 12:30-13:30

  D'AUTUME A. (Univ. de Paris 1) : Comment imposer le capital ?

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 26 September 2006 12:30-13:30

  MURTIN F. (PSE) : American Economic Development Since the Civil War

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 11 July 2006

  CARBONNIER C. (PSE) : La concurrence fiscale au niveau local, influence des facteurs publics de production, France 2002-2004

• Tuesday 4 July 2006

  SOMMEILLER E. (Univ. de Lyon 2) : Regional Income Inequalities in the United States, 1913-2003

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 27 June 2006

  CORCOS G. (PSE) : Productivity and Firm Selection: Intra-National vs Inter-National Trade

  Co-auteur(s) : M. del Gatto, G. Mion et G. Ottaviano

• Tuesday 20 June 2006

  STICHNOTH H. (PSE) : Immigration and Attitudes Towards the Social Security System: Evidence from Germany

• Tuesday 13 June 2006

  FACK G. (PSE) : Do better schools raise housing prices? Evidence from Paris school zoning

• Tuesday 6 June 2006

  KHARROUBI E. (Banque de France) : Labor Market Flexibility and Growth

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 30 May 2006

  GABLER A. (European university institute) : Is One Shock Enough? The Relative Price of Investment in the Short Run

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 23 May 2006

  FORSE M. (CNRS) : La ségrégation urbaine selon Schelling

  Co-auteur : M. Parodi

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 16 May 2006

  BAS M. (PSE) : The impact of trade reform and the patterns of export specialization

  Co-auteur(s) : Y. Ledezma

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 9 May 2006

  ALGAN Y. (PSE) : Monetary policy with heterogeneous agent models and credit constraints

  Co-auteur(s) : X. Ragot

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 25 April 2006

  BOULHOL H. (Univ. de Paris 1) : Do capital market and trade liberalization trigger labor market deregulation?

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 18 April 2006

  NEFUSSI B. (EHESS) : An assessment of the export vs FDI trade off

• Tuesday 11 April 2006

  HOMBERT J. (PSE) : Upstream-Downstream Competition with Integrated Firms and the Emergence of Competitive Intermediate Markets

  Co-auteur(s) : M. Bourreau, J. Pouyet & N. Schutz

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 4 April 2006

  DEMMOU L. (Univ. de Rotterdam) : Sector Specializations, Nonhomothetic demand and Welfare

  Co-auteur(s) :

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 28 March 2006

  SRAER D. (INSEE) : Bottom up Corporate Governance

• Tuesday 21 March 2006

  TRESSEL T. (International monetary fund) : Foreign Banks in Poor Countries: Theory and Evidence

  Co-auteur(s) : E. Detragiache & P. Gupta

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 14 March 2006

  MOCCERO D. (ENS) : Argentina's exports to Brazil and to the rest of the world: which impact of real exchange rate volatility?

• Tuesday 7 March 2006

  RANCIERE R. (Univ. Pompeu Fabra) : Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development

  Co-auteur(s) : P. Aghion, P.Bacchetta & K. Rogoff

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 28 February 2006

  FALL F. (Univ. de Paris 1) : Distribution du Capital Humain, R et D, et croissance dans les pays développés

  Co-auteur(s) : J. L. Esso

• Tuesday 21 February 2006

  LE GRAND F. (PSE) : Nelson and Siegel, no-arbitrage and risk premium

• Tuesday 14 February 2006

  JARA MORONI P. (PSE) : Strategic Complementarity, Heterogeneity and Eductive Stability

• Tuesday 7 February 2006

  JACQUEMET N. (Univ. de Lyon 2) : The Reliability of the Bertrand Curse: An Experimental Investigation of Leniency Programs for Underground Work

• Tuesday 31 January 2006

  ALVAREDO F. (PSE) : Income and Wealth Concentration in Spain in Historical Perspective

  Co-auteur(s) : E. Saez

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 24 January 2006

  KOENIG P. (Univ. de Paris 1) : Immigration and the Export Decision to the Home Country

• Tuesday 17 January 2006

  MACCHIAVELLO R. (London school of economics and political science) : Contractual Imperfections, Credit Markets and Vertical Integration: Theory and Evidence

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 10 January 2006

  BOZIO A. (EHESS) : Le chômage et les retraites en France: 30 ans de politique malthusienne

• Tuesday 3 January 2006

  PROST C. (EHESS) : Teachers' Training, Class Size and Students' Outcomes: Evidence from Third Grade Classes in France

  Co-auteur(s) : P. Bressoux & F. Kramarz

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 13 December 2005

  BACH L. (PSE) : Dans quelle mesure les entreprises françaises font-elles face à des contraintes de crédit ?

• Tuesday 6 December 2005

  DONNI O. (Univ. de Cergy-Pontoise) : Targeting Rotten Kids

  Co-auteur(s) : O. Bargain

• Tuesday 29 November 2005

  DUPAS P. (EHESS) : Perceived Health Risk, Peer Effects and the Choice of Sexual Partners: Evidence from Kenya

• Tuesday 22 November 2005

  MARZO F. : HIV/AIDS indigenous transfers and public food aid: impacts and implications

  Co-auteur(s) : F. Murtin

• Tuesday 15 November 2005

  AZMAT G. : The Incidence of an Earned Income Tax Credit: Evaluating the Impact on Wages in the UK

• Tuesday 8 November 2005

  VIDA P. (PSE) : A Detail-free Mediator

• Tuesday 25 October 2005

  CORCOS G. (ENS) : Public policy towards FDI with an endogenous choice between acquisition and greenfield investment

• Tuesday 18 October 2005

  OLIVIER A. (ENS) : Evaluation de l'impact sur les ménages de la hausse du tarif de l'eau à Manaus (Brésil)

• Tuesday 11 October 2005

  LAURENT R. (ENS) : Un modèle de duopole avec elimination by aspects

• Tuesday 4 October 2005

  MURTIN F. (PSE) : The World Distribution of Human Capital, 1870-2000

  Co-auteur(s) : C. Morrisson

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 27 September 2005

  COEURDACIER N. (ENS) : Do trade costs in goods markets lead to home bias in equities ?

• Tuesday 20 September 2005

  HUILLERY E. (PSE) : Institutions coloniales et inégalités régionales dans les pays d'Afrique de l'Ouest

• Tuesday 21 June 2005

  ESPANOL P. : Contrainte financière, investissement et structure productive : une étude de cas sur des firmes argentines

• Tuesday 21 June 2005

  ESPANOL P. : Contrainte financière, investissement et structure productive : une étude de cas sur des firmes argentines

• Tuesday 14 June 2005

  ALGAN Y. (Univ. de Paris 1) : The Roots of Low European Employment : Familiy Culture ?

  Co-auteur(s) : P. Cahuc

• Tuesday 14 June 2005

  ALGAN Y. (Univ. de Paris 1) : The Roots of Low European Employment : Familiy Culture ?

  Co-auteur(s) : P. Cahuc

• Tuesday 7 June 2005

  HENRY E. : Disclosure of research results

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 7 June 2005

  HENRY E. : Disclosure of research results

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 31 May 2005

  DE ROSA D. : Natural Resources and Institutional Quality: Evidence from Russia

• Tuesday 31 May 2005

  DE ROSA D. : Natural Resources and Institutional Quality: Evidence from Russia

• Tuesday 24 May 2005

  VALDENAIRE M. : Les enfants plus grands ont-ils moins besoin de classes plus petites ? Estimation de l’impact des tailles de classes sur la réussite scolaire dans les écoles primaires, les collèges et les lycées

• Tuesday 24 May 2005

  VALDENAIRE M. : Les enfants plus grands ont-ils moins besoin de classes plus petites ? Estimation de l’impact des tailles de classes sur la réussite scolaire dans les écoles primaires, les collèges et les lycées

• Tuesday 17 May 2005

  LINNEMAYR S. : Consumption smoothing and HIV/AIDS : evidence from South Africa

  Co-auteur(s) : S. Freire

• Tuesday 17 May 2005

  LINNEMAYR S. : Consumption smoothing and HIV/AIDS : evidence from South Africa

  Co-auteur(s) : S. Freire

• Tuesday 10 May 2005

  MARTIN P. (Univ. de Paris 1) : Make Trade, not War?

  Co-auteur(s) : T. Mayer et M. Thoenig

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 10 May 2005

  MARTIN P. (Univ. de Paris 1) : Make Trade, not War?

  Co-auteur(s) : T. Mayer et M. Thoenig

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 3 May 2005

  TURNER L. : Individual Differences in Scientific Research Productivity: How important are Institutional and Individual Determinants? An Econometric study of French CNRS Physicists' publications and citations (1980-1997)

  Co-auteur(s) : J. Mairesse

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 3 May 2005

  TURNER L. : Individual Differences in Scientific Research Productivity: How important are Institutional and Individual Determinants? An Econometric study of French CNRS Physicists' publications and citations (1980-1997)

  Co-auteur(s) : J. Mairesse

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 19 April 2005

  POUGET J. : Who wants to be a « fonctionnaire » ? The effects of individual wage differentials and unemployment probabilities on the queues for public sector jobs

  Co-auteur(s) : D. Fougère

• Tuesday 19 April 2005

  POUGET J. : Who wants to be a « fonctionnaire » ? The effects of individual wage differentials and unemployment probabilities on the queues for public sector jobs

  Co-auteur(s) : D. Fougère

• Tuesday 12 April 2005

  The session was canceled.

  GEOFFARD P.Y. : Assurance-maladie : séparation des effets de sélection et d’incitation

• Tuesday 12 April 2005

  The session was canceled.

  GEOFFARD P.Y. : Assurance-maladie : séparation des effets de sélection et d’incitation

• Tuesday 5 April 2005

  MAURIN E. : Vive la révolution ! Long term return of 1968 to the angry students

  Co-auteur(s) : S. Mc Nally

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 5 April 2005

  MAURIN E. : Vive la révolution ! Long term return of 1968 to the angry students

  Co-auteur(s) : S. Mc Nally

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 29 March 2005

  RAGOT X. : Equivalence ricardienne et neutralité de l'inflation

• Tuesday 29 March 2005

  RAGOT X. : Equivalence ricardienne et neutralité de l'inflation

• Tuesday 22 March 2005

  COEURDACIER N. (ENS) : International equity holdings and stock returns correlation : a paradox and its resolution

  Co-auteur(s) : S. Guibaud

• Tuesday 22 March 2005

  COEURDACIER N. (ENS) : International equity holdings and stock returns correlation : a paradox and its resolution

  Co-auteur(s) : S. Guibaud

• Tuesday 15 March 2005

  STASAVAGE D. (LSE) : Religion and preferences for social insurance

  Co-auteur(s) : K. Scheve

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 March 2005

  STASAVAGE D. (LSE) : Religion and preferences for social insurance

  Co-auteur(s) : K. Scheve

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 8 March 2005

  MURTIN F. (PSE) : Computing the ability bias of the college premium: an application of linear mixed models with regime switching

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 8 March 2005

  MURTIN F. (PSE) : Computing the ability bias of the college premium: an application of linear mixed models with regime switching

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 1 March 2005

  DEFEVER F. : Functional Specialization and the Location of Multinational Firms in the Enlarged Europe

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 1 March 2005

  DEFEVER F. : Functional Specialization and the Location of Multinational Firms in the Enlarged Europe

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 February 2005

  JOLIVET G. : Job-to-Job Mobility and Compensating Differentials

  Co-auteur(s) : S. Bonhomme

• Tuesday 15 February 2005

  JOLIVET G. : Job-to-Job Mobility and Compensating Differentials

  Co-auteur(s) : S. Bonhomme

• Tuesday 8 February 2005

  CORCOS G. (ENS) : Globalisation, Vertical Linkages and 'Relational Contracts

• Tuesday 8 February 2005

  CORCOS G. (ENS) : Globalisation, Vertical Linkages and 'Relational Contracts

• Tuesday 1 February 2005

  DE ROSA D. : Firm Characteristics and External Conditions : Explaining Russian Manufacturing Export

• Tuesday 1 February 2005

  DE ROSA D. : Firm Characteristics and External Conditions : Explaining Russian Manufacturing Export

• Tuesday 25 January 2005

  STANCANELLI E. : Evaluating the impact of the French tax credit programme “Prime pour l’emploi”: a difference-in-difference model

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 25 January 2005

  STANCANELLI E. : Evaluating the impact of the French tax credit programme “Prime pour l’emploi”: a difference-in-difference model

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 18 January 2005

  BOULHOL H. : Pro-competitive policies and convergence of markups

• Tuesday 18 January 2005

  BOULHOL H. : Pro-competitive policies and convergence of markups

• Tuesday 11 January 2005

  FALL F. : Endogenous Persistent Inequality when Markets are Perfect

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 11 January 2005

  FALL F. : Endogenous Persistent Inequality when Markets are Perfect

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 4 January 2005

  COUPET M. : Revisiting the Dornbush's overshooting with a constrained structural VECM approach

• Tuesday 4 January 2005

  COUPET M. : Revisiting the Dornbush's overshooting with a constrained structural VECM approach

• Tuesday 14 December 2004

  DELL F. (PSE) : Wealth Mobility and Wealth Taxation - Evidence from French Panel Data

  Co-auteur(s) : D. Echevin

• Tuesday 14 December 2004

  DELL F. (PSE) : Wealth Mobility and Wealth Taxation - Evidence from French Panel Data

  Co-auteur(s) : D. Echevin

• Tuesday 7 December 2004

  DUMAS C. (PSE) : Mobilité scolaire au Sénégal

• Tuesday 7 December 2004

  DUMAS C. (PSE) : Mobilité scolaire au Sénégal

• Tuesday 30 November 2004

  STECLEBOUT E. (PSE) : Pourquoi est-il si difficile de réformer le Pacte de stabilité et de croissance ?

• Tuesday 30 November 2004

  STECLEBOUT E. (PSE) : Pourquoi est-il si difficile de réformer le Pacte de stabilité et de croissance ?

• Tuesday 23 November 2004

  JAKUBOWICZ M. (PSE) : Retraite universelle et travail des jeunes. Le cas du Brésil rural

• Tuesday 23 November 2004

  JAKUBOWICZ M. (PSE) : Retraite universelle et travail des jeunes. Le cas du Brésil rural

• Tuesday 16 November 2004

  ALDASHEV G. (PSE) : Voter turnout and political rents: theory and evidence

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 16 November 2004

  ALDASHEV G. (PSE) : Voter turnout and political rents: theory and evidence

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 9 November 2004

  DIRER A. (PSE) : Lottery Game Design and Preference under Risk

• Tuesday 9 November 2004

  DIRER A. (PSE) : Lottery Game Design and Preference under Risk

• Tuesday 2 November 2004

  DUBEY P. (PSE) : Grading Exams : 100, 99,...., 1 or A, B, C ? Incentives in Games of Status

• Tuesday 2 November 2004

  DUBEY P. (PSE) : Grading Exams : 100, 99,...., 1 or A, B, C ? Incentives in Games of Status

• Tuesday 26 October 2004

  CARBONNIER C. (PSE) : Qui paie la TVA? Existence d’un hystérésis dans l’ajustement des prix aux variations de TVA en France, 1990-2000

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 26 October 2004

  CARBONNIER C. (PSE) : Qui paie la TVA? Existence d’un hystérésis dans l’ajustement des prix aux variations de TVA en France, 1990-2000

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 19 October 2004

  DOBROTKOVA Z. : Stable matchings in an economy with strong and weak agents

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 19 October 2004

  DOBROTKOVA Z. : Stable matchings in an economy with strong and weak agents

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 12 October 2004

  DESBONNET A. (EUREqua) : Inégalités de patrimoine et progressivité de l'impôt

  Co-auteur(s) : J.O. Hairault

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 12 October 2004

  DESBONNET A. (EUREqua) : Inégalités de patrimoine et progressivité de l'impôt

  Co-auteur(s) : J.O. Hairault

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 5 October 2004

  BOZIO A. (PSE) : Quel est l'impact de l'augmentation de la durée de cotisation lors de la réforme des retraites de 1993 ?

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 5 October 2004

  BOZIO A. (PSE) : Quel est l'impact de l'augmentation de la durée de cotisation lors de la réforme des retraites de 1993 ?

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 28 September 2004

  NATICCHIONI P. (PSE) : Volatility, higher education and inequality in Latin America. Micro and macro evidence from Argentina and Brazil

  Co-auteur(s) : D. Panigo

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 28 September 2004

  NATICCHIONI P. (PSE) : Volatility, higher education and inequality in Latin America. Micro and macro evidence from Argentina and Brazil

  Co-auteur(s) : D. Panigo

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 June 2004

  BARGAIN O. (PSE) : In-work policies in Europe : killing two birds with one stone

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 22 June 2004

  BARGAIN O. (PSE) : In-work policies in Europe : killing two birds with one stone

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 June 2004

  HAUTCOEUR P.C. (DELTA) : The Paris Bourse in the interwar period : a tale of various indices

  Co-auteur(s) : M. Petit

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 15 June 2004

  HAUTCOEUR P.C. (DELTA) : The Paris Bourse in the interwar period : a tale of various indices

  Co-auteur(s) : M. Petit

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 8 June 2004

  DELL F. : Pourquoi les hauts revenus sont-ils plus concentrés en Allemagne qu’en France ?

• Tuesday 8 June 2004

  DELL F. : Pourquoi les hauts revenus sont-ils plus concentrés en Allemagne qu’en France ?

• Tuesday 1 June 2004

  BEGORRE BRET M. (DELTA) : Education Investment and Globalization in a Heterogenous Population

• Tuesday 1 June 2004

  BEGORRE BRET M. (DELTA) : Education Investment and Globalization in a Heterogenous Population

• Tuesday 25 May 2004

  RUSSO G. : Voting on mass immigration restriction

  Co-auteur : Francisco Magris

• Tuesday 25 May 2004

  RUSSO G. : Voting on mass immigration restriction

  Co-auteur : Francisco Magris

• Tuesday 18 May 2004

  XENOGIANI T. : Demand for education and labour market outcomes: lessons from the abolition of compulsory conscription in France

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 18 May 2004

  XENOGIANI T. : Demand for education and labour market outcomes: lessons from the abolition of compulsory conscription in France

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 11 May 2004

  LOISEL O. : Simulation of the UK Business Cycle Under EMU Membership

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 11 May 2004

  LOISEL O. : Simulation of the UK Business Cycle Under EMU Membership

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 4 May 2004

  BEHAGHEL L. : Les effets de la contribution Delalande sur le chômage des travailleurs âgés: évaluation dans un modèle d'appariement

• Tuesday 4 May 2004

  BEHAGHEL L. : Les effets de la contribution Delalande sur le chômage des travailleurs âgés: évaluation dans un modèle d'appariement

• Tuesday 27 April 2004

  KESZTENBAUM L. (INRA-LEA) : Comportement d’accumulation et mobilité de cycle de vie en France, 1870-1940

• Tuesday 27 April 2004

  KESZTENBAUM L. (INRA-LEA) : Comportement d’accumulation et mobilité de cycle de vie en France, 1870-1940

• Tuesday 20 April 2004

  GUIBAUD S. : International Risk Sharing, Financiel Integration and Trade

• Tuesday 20 April 2004

  GUIBAUD S. : International Risk Sharing, Financiel Integration and Trade

• Tuesday 6 April 2004

  GRENET J. : Suffit-il d’allonger la scolarité obligatoire pour augmenter les salaires ? Le cas de la réforme Berthoin (1959-1967)

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 6 April 2004

  GRENET J. : Suffit-il d’allonger la scolarité obligatoire pour augmenter les salaires ? Le cas de la réforme Berthoin (1959-1967)

  Full text [pdf]

• Tuesday 30 March 2004

  KALANTZIS Y. (DELTA) : Modele de crise financière dans un régime de croissance soutenu par l'endettement externe

• Tuesday 30 March 2004

  KALANTZIS Y. (DELTA) : Modele de crise financière dans un régime de croissance soutenu par l'endettement externe

• Tuesday 23 March 2004

  AVIAT A. (DELTA) : En quoi les flux d’actifs suivent-ils un modèle de gravité ?

  Co-auteur(s) : N. Coeurdacier

• Tuesday 23 March 2004

  AVIAT A. (DELTA) : En quoi les flux d’actifs suivent-ils un modèle de gravité ?

  Co-auteur(s) : N. Coeurdacier

• Tuesday 16 March 2004

  MASSON A. (DELTA) : Préférences face au risque et à l'avenir: types d'épargnants

  Co-auteur(s) : L. Arrondel et D. Verger

• Tuesday 16 March 2004

  MASSON A. (DELTA) : Préférences face au risque et à l'avenir: types d'épargnants

  Co-auteur(s) : L. Arrondel et D. Verger

• Tuesday 9 March 2004

  NOUVEAU C. : Non-emploi régional et transitions sur le marché du travail

• Tuesday 9 March 2004

  NOUVEAU C. : Non-emploi régional et transitions sur le marché du travail

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  ARIELL Resheff (PSE) : *

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  GABRIELLI Maria Valentina (PSE, ENPC) : Intergenerational Mobility in Latin America

  Abstract

  This paper presents the first cross-country analysis of intergenerational economic mobility in Latin America. I exploit information on self-reported economic status for respondents and their parents, from an untapped dataset covering individuals born in 1940 to 1990 in 18 Latin American countries. In line with previous studies, the average intergenerational elasticity in the region is 0.66, indicating a strong intergenerational persistence of economic status. However, I find substantial country heterogeneities in terms of absolute and relative mobility across the countries in the sample. Richer countries are more likely to be more mobile. Furthermore, I show evidence of a decrease in both absolute and relative mobility across cohorts for most countries in the sample. From a public policy perspective, it is worrying that intergenerational mobility is low and that it has been decreasing over time because this implies the deepening of unequal opportunities. These findings, from a previously unused data source, point to new directions for future research.

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  LAGO RODRÍGUEZ Manuel Estevo : *

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  FABRE Antoine : Udapting rental values for local taxation : an ex ante evaluation in the French context

  Guillaume Chapelle, Chloé Lallemand

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  R2-01 Jourdan

  *

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  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  Accounting for Business Income in Measuring Top Income Shares: Integrated Accrual Approach Using Individual and Firm Data from Norway

  Abstract

  Business income is important in the upper tail of the personal income distribution, but the extent to which it is captured by measures of personal income varies substantially across tax regimes. Using linked individual and firm data from Norway, we are able to attribute business income to personal owners as it accrues rather than when it is realized. This adjustment leads to an increase in top income shares, and the size of this effect varies dramatically depending on the tax regime in place. After a tax reform in 2005 that created strong incentives to retain earnings within businesses, the increase was massive: accounting for earnings retained in the corporate sector leads to more than doubling of the share of income of top 0.1% in some years. Furthermore, adjusting for retained earnings stabilizes the composition of the top income group before and after the reform. We also show that the response is driven by majority owners in closely held firms and facilitated through indirect ownership. As the result, traditional measures of top income shares become misleadingly low (even when accounting for capital gains). We speculate on the implications of our findings for levels and trends in top income shares observed in other countries. In particular, we note that the major tax reforms of the 1980s in the United States correspond to a shift toward business income being passed through to personal owners, and argue that top income shares constructed using income tax statistics before 1987 are likely to be significantly understated relative to those afterwards.

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  VISKANIC Max (Sciences Po) : Undoing Gender with Institutions. Lessons from the German Division and Reunification.