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Migration is a major aspect of globalization and is increasingly at the center of the public and policy debate. How does climate change affect migration ? What is the relationship between migration, other dimensions of globalization, and development ? What are the public finance and demographic effect of immigration for the host countries ? What are the effects of immigration on the labor market ? How do host societies adapt to increasingly diverse population ? We will address these questions, as well as the econometric challenges of identifying them.

Structure

Migration, Globalization and Development : Political Economy and Cultural Economics, Hillel Rapoport (6 hours) ;
Migration and Climate Change, Katrin Millock (6 hours) ;
Immigration, Labor Markets, Productivity, Entrepreneurship and Firms, Giovanni Peri (3 hours) ;
Assessing the causal effect of immigration : focus on methods, Giovanni Peri (3 hours) ;
Identifying the development impacts of migration, David McKenzie (6 hours).

Workshop : present your paper
Participants will have the opportunity to submit a paper to be presented within this program. The submitted paper should be a work produced by the participant (e.g. Master’s dissertation, policy work or research paper for PhD students). Selected pieces will be presented (in 30 minutes) in front of participants and faculty over three slots of 1.5 hours each.

Migration and Climate Change – Katrin Millock

Overview
This course aims at understanding mobility responses to climate change and migration as a means of adaptation to climate change.
The course will focus on the measures of climate change and weather variations and the main econometric methods that are used to identify their influence on migration. We will study theoretical models that depart from standard models of migration decisions by including temperature shocks and/or climatic extreme events as a parameter. The spectrum of models covered will include the random utility model and its empirical counterpart (the gravity model), and general equilibrium models. We will also discuss predictions of future migration flows linked to climate change and to what extent such predictions are reliable. Participants will learn about recent approaches to better model the mechanisms underlying this specific form of adaptation, and the relation of migration to other adaptation strategies.
The course thus intends to give participants an understanding of the methods currently used to predict future climate-related migration, and the remaining challenges in identifying mobility responses to climate change.

Structure

How do we measure climate change impacts on migration using weather data ? Theory and empirical identification.
Who are the climate migrants ? What are the implications for the economy ? Going from macro migration flows to micro-economic evidence.
Is it possible to project future flows of climate migrants ? The use of general equilibrium models.
Migration as climate change adaptation : modelling the underlying mechanisms and in situ adaptation choices

Selected key references
Beine M., Parsons, C, (2015), « Climatic factors as determinants of international migration ». The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 117(2) : 723-767.

Benonnier, T., Millock, K., Taraz, V, (2022), « Long-term Migration Trends and Rising Temperatures : The Role of Irrigation », Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy 11(3) : 307-330.

Burzynski, M., Docquier, F., Duster, C., de Melo, J, (2022), « Climate change, inequality and human migration ». Journal of the European Economic Association 20(3), 1145-1197.

Cattaneo, C., Peri, G, (2016), « The migration response to increasing temperatures ». Journal of Development Economics 122(C) : 127-146.

Cattaneo, C., Beine, M, Fröhlich, C., Kniveton, D., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Mastrorillo, M., Millock, K., Piguet, E, Schraven, B, (2019), « Human migration in the era of climate change ». Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 13(2) : 189-206.

Dallmann, I., Millock, K, (2017), "Climate variability and inter-state migration in India”. CESifo Economic Studies 63(4) : 560-594.

Hornbeck, R, (2020), « Dust Bowl Migrants : Identifying an Archetype ». NBER Working Papers 27656.

Mahajan, P., Yang, D, (2020), « Taken by storm : hurricanes and migrant networks ». American Economic Journal : Applied Economics 12(2) : 250-277.

I. Immigration, Labor Markets, Productivity, Entrepreneurship and Firms – Giovanni Peri

Overview
The aim of these two classes will be to understand the consequences of immigrants on the labor market of the host country. Immigrants can act as substitute or complement to natives, which may affect labor supply and wages in different ways. In addition, by bringing new or complementary skills to the host labor market, immigrants may influence firm productivity. Overall, immigrants are likely to have large and sizable effects on the structure and the functioning of firms and the labor market more generally in the host country. We will investigate these questions both theoretically and empirically, paying particular attention to the methodological challenges raised by these questions.

Structure

Basic model of labor market effect of immigrants : Labor markets and skills
The task approach
Dynamic responses in the labor markets
Impact on productivity, entrepreneurship and firms : empirical analysis and results

Selected key references
Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, (2012.), « Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages, » Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 152-197, February.

Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, (2009), « Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages, » American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 135-169, July.

Cristina Cattaneo, Carlo V. Fiorio and Giovanni Peri, (2015), « What Happens to the Careers of European Workers When Immigrants Take Their Jobs ?, » Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 655-693.

Mette Foged and Giovanni Peri, (2016), « Immigrants’ Effect on Native Workers : New Analysis on Longitudinal Data, » American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.

Andreas Beerli & Jan Ruffner & Michael Siegenthaler & Giovanni Peri, (2021), « The Abolition of Immigration Restrictions and the Performance of Firms and Workers : Evidence from Switzerland, » American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 976-1012, March.

Gianluca Orefice & Giovanni Peri, (2020), « Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching, » NBER Working Papers 26860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

II. Assessing the causal effect of immigration : focus on methods – Giovanni Peri

The aim of these two classes is to dig deeper into the methods used in estimating the impact of immigration. First, we will analyze the instrumental variable method using a shift-share and we will follow the criticism and the recent evolution of this IV strategy. Then we will introduce methods used to analyze natural quasi-experiment and policies as tools to learn about the impact of immigration.

Structure :

The shift-share IV method
Criticism and evolution of shift-share
Quasi-experiments

Selected key references
Giovanni Peri & Kevin Shih & Chad Sparber, (2015), « STEM Workers, H-1B Visas, and Productivity in US Cities, » Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(S1), pages 225-255.

Jaeger, Ruist, Stuhler, (2017), “Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration” NBER Working Paper, November 2017.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, (2020), « Bartik Instruments : What, When, Why, and How, » American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.

Giovanni Peri & Vasil Yasenov, (2019), « The Labor Market Effects of a Refugee Wave : Synthetic Control Method Meets the Mariel Boatlift, » Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 267-309.

Michael A. Clemens & Ethan G. Lewis & Hannah M. Postel, (2017), « Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy : Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion, » NBER Working Papers 23125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Migration, Globalization and Development : Political Economy and Cultural Economics - Hillel Rapoport

Overview
How does migration affect the political and cultural evolution of countries ? This short course will address the following questions : how does emigration affects the political evolution of sending countries ? And : Does migration make sending and receiving countries culturally more similar or more dissimilar (cultural convergence/divergence). To answer the first question we will rely on two emigration historical episodes, one characterized by strong political self-selection (Hirschman’s “exit”) and one by social remittances. To answer the second question we use a theoretical model of cultural transmission with migration allowing to disentangle various candidate mechanisms and test the predictions of that model on cross-country bilateral data.

Structure

Emigration and Political Change
Migration and Cultural Integration

Selected key references
Students must prepare for the class by reading the required articles (denoted by **).

Part 1 : Emigration and Political Change
**Barsbai, Toman, Hillel Rapoport, Andreas Steinmayr and Christoph Trebesch, (2017), « The effect of labor migration on the diffusion of democracy : evidence from a former Soviet Republic », American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, July.

**Barsbai, Toman and Hillel Rapoport, (2020), "Exit and Voice : Germany, 1848-1933”, Mimeo (presentation slides).

Batista, C., and P. Vicente, (2011), « Do Migrants Improve Governance at Home ? Evidence from a Voting Experiment ». World Bank Economic Review, 25(1), 77-104.

Bazzi, S., Fiszbein, M., & Gebresilasse, M, (2020), "Frontier culture : The roots and persistence of “rugged individualism” in the United States. Econometrica.

Chauvet, L., and M. Mercier, (2014), « Migration and Elections in Mali. Does Migration Promote Democratization in Africa ? », Journal of Comparative Economics.

Docquier, F., E. Lodigiani, H. Rapoport, and M. Schiff, (2016), « Emigration and Democracy », Journal of Development Economics.

Spilimbergo, A, (2009), « Foreign students and democracy », American Economic Review.

Part 2 : Migration and cultural integration
**Rapoport, H., A. Silve and S. Sardoschau (2021) : « Migration and cultural change ». IZA Discussion Paper No 14772, October 2021.

Abramitzky, R., Boustan, L. P., & Eriksson, K, (2014), « A nation of immigrants : Assimilation and economic outcomes in the age of mass migration ». Journal of Political Economy, 122(3).

Alesina, A. & Giuliano, P, (2015), « Culture and institutions ». Journal of Economic Literature, 53(4), 898–944.

Beck Knudsen, Anne-Sofie, (2020), « Those who stayed : Individualism, self-selection and cultural change during the age of mass migration », Working Paper, Lund University.

Beine, M., F. Docquier, and M. Schiff, (2013), « International Migration, Transfer of Norms and Home Country Fertility », Canadian Journal of Economics.

Casari, Marco, Andrea Ichino, Moti Michaeli, Maria De Paola and Vincenzo Scoppa, (2019), « Civicness drain », CEPR Discussion Paper 13311, November.

Clingingsmith, D., A. Khwaja, and M. Kremer, (2009), « Estimating the Impact of the Hajj : Religion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Gathering », Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Daudin, Guillaume, Raphael Franck and Hillel Rapoport, (2019), « Can intenal migration foster the convergence in regional fertility rates ? Evidence from 19th century France ». Economic Journal.

Giuliano, Paola and Marco Tabellini, (2021), « The seeds of ideology : historical immigration and political preferences in the United States », Working Paper.

Jarotschkin, Alexandra, Antonela Miho and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, (2021), « Diffusion of Gender Norms : Evidence from Stalin’s Ethnic Deportations ».

Karadja, Mounir and Erik Prawitz, (2019), « Exit, Voice and Political Change : Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States », Journal of Political Economy.

I. Immigration, Labor Markets, Productivity, Entrepreneurship and Firms – Giovanni Peri

Structure

Basic model of labor market effect of immigrants : Labor markets and skills
The task approach
Dynamic responses in the labor markets
Impact on productivity, entrepreneurship and firms : empirical analysis and results

Selected key references
Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, (2012), « Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages », Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 152-197, February.

Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, (2009), « Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages », American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 135-169, July.

Cristina Cattaneo, Carlo V. Fiorio and Giovanni Peri, (2015), « What Happens to the Careers of European Workers When Immigrants Take Their Jobs ? », Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 655-693.

Mette Foged and Giovanni Peri, (2016), « Immigrants’ Effect on Native Workers : New Analysis on Longitudinal Data », American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.

Andreas Beerli & Jan Ruffner & Michael Siegenthaler & Giovanni Peri, (2021), « The Abolition of Immigration Restrictions and the Performance of Firms and Workers : Evidence from Switzerland », American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 976-1012, March.

Gianluca Orefice & Giovanni Peri, (2020), « Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching », NBER Working Papers 26860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

II. Assessing the causal effect of immigration : focus on methods – Giovanni Peri

Structure :

The shift-share IV method
Criticism and evolution of shift-share
Quasi-experiments

Selected key references
Giovanni Peri & Kevin Shih & Chad Sparber, (2015), « STEM Workers, H-1B Visas, and Productivity in US Cities », Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(S1), pages 225-255.

Jaeger, Ruist, Stuhler, (2017), “Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration” NBER Working Paper, November 2017.

Identifying the development impacts of migration – David McKenzie (6 hours).

There has been an explosion in interest in the potential for migration to lift people out of poverty. The focus of much of the rhetoric has been on remittances, yet migration involves a lot more than money transfers. Moreover, identifying the impact of migration or remittances on households is hard since migrants self-select – so that households without migrants are likely quite different from those with migrants with which they are often compared. Estimating the microeconomic impacts of migration therefore requires thinking about who chooses to migrate, and how to estimate what would have happened had this person or household not migrated. The aim of these two classes is to address this challenge of identifying the microeconomic impacts of migration on development outcomes. We will discuss the various channels through which migration has a measurable impact on the migrant household, the key obstacles to being able to attribute effects to migration itself, and different empirical methods that can be used to identify the impacts of migration.

Selected key references
Adams, Richard and John Page, (2005), « Do International Migration and Remittances Reduce Poverty in Developing Countries ? », World Development 33(10) : 1645-69.

Baseler, Travis, (2021), « Hidden Income and the Perceived Returns to Migration ». SSRN (3534715).

Barham, Bradford and Stephen Boucher, (1998), « Migration, remittances, and inequality : estimating the net effects of migration on income distribution », Journal of Development Economics 55 : 307-31.

Beegle, Kathleen, Joachim de Weert and Stefan Dercon « Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania : Evidence from a Tracking Survey », (2011), Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(3) : 1010–1033.

Bryan, G., S. Chowdhury, and A. M. Mobarak, (2014), « Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology : The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh ». Econometrica 82, 1671_1748.

Clemens, Michael, Claudio Montenegro and Lant Pritchett, (2019), « The Place Premium : Wage Differences for Identical Workers Across the U.S. Border », Review of Economics and Statistics 101(2).

Clemens, Michael and Erwin Tiongson, (2017), « Split Decisions : Family finance when a policy discontinuity allocates overseas work », The Review of Economics and Statistics 99(3), 531–543.

Gibson, John and David McKenzie, (2014), « The Development Impact of a Best Practice Seasonal Worker Policy », Review of Economics and Statistics, 96(2) : 229-43.

Gibson, John, David McKenzie and Steven Stillman, (2013), « Selectivity and the Estimated Impact of Emigration on Incomes and Poverty in Sending Areas : Evidence from the Samoan Quota Migration Lottery ». Economic Development and Cultural Change, 61(2) : 248-280.

Hamory, J., M. Kleemans, N. Li, and E. Miguel, (2021), « Reevaluating Agricultural Productivity Gaps with Longitudinal Microdata ». Journal of the European Economic Association 19(3), 1522–1555.

McKenzie, David, (2005), « Beyond Remittances : The effects of Migration on Mexican households », pp123-148 in C. Özden and M. Schiff (eds) International Migration, Remittances and the Brain Drain, The World Bank : Washington D.C. 2005.

McKenzie, David, John Gibson, and Steven Stillman, (2010), « How Important is Selection ? Experimental Vs Non-experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migration ». Journal of the European Economic Association, 8(4) : 913-45.

McKenzie, David, Caroline Theoharides and Dean Yang, (2014), « Distortions in the International Migrant Labor Market : Evidence from Filipino Migration and Wage Responses to Destination Country Economic Shocks », American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, 6(2) : 49-75.

McKenzie, David, (2022), « Fears and Tears : Should more people be moving within and from developing countries, and what stops this movement ? », World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. 10128.

McKenzie, David and Dean Yang, (2022), « Field and Natural Experiments in Migration », prepared for Handbook of Research Methods on Migration, Second edition.

Contents – Migration Economics