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Migration is a major aspect of globalization and is increasingly at the center of the public and policy debate. How does climate change affect migration ? What is the relationship between migration, other dimensions of globalization, and development ? What are the public finance and demographic effect of immigration for the host countries ? What are the effects of immigration on the labor market ? How do host societies adapt to increasingly diverse population ? We will address these questions, as well as the econometric challenges of identifying them.

Structure

  • Political Economy of Migration, Hillel Rapoport (6 hours) ;
  • Migration and Climate Change, Katrin Millock (6 hours) ;
  • Immigration, Labor Markets, Productivity, Entrepreneurship and Firms, Giovanni Peri (3 hours) ;
  • Assessing the causal effect of immigration : focus on methods, Giovanni Peri (3 hours) ;
  • Identifying the development impacts of migration, Clément Imbert (6 hours).

Workshop : present your paper
Participants will have the opportunity to submit a paper to be presented within this program. The submitted paper should be a work produced by the participant (e.g. Master’s dissertation, policy work or research paper for PhD students). Selected pieces will be presented (in 30 minutes) in front of participants and faculty over three slots of 1.5 hours each.

Migration and Climate Change - Katrin Millock

Overview
This course aims at understanding mobility responses to climate change and migration as a means of adaptation to climate change.

The course will focus on the measures of climate change and weather variations and the main econometric methods that are used to identify their influence on migration. We will study theoretical models that depart from standard models of migration decisions by including temperature shocks and/or climatic extreme events as a parameter. The spectrum of models covered will include the random utility model and its empirical counterpart (the gravity model), and general equilibrium models. We will also discuss predictions of future migration flows linked to climate change and to what extent such predictions are reliable. Participants will learn about recent approaches to better model the mechanisms underlying this specific form of adaptation, and the relation of migration to other adaptation strategies.

The course thus intends to give participants an understanding of the methods currently used to predict future climate-related migration, and the remaining challenges in identifying mobility responses to climate change.

Structure

  1. How do we measure climate change impacts on migration using weather data ? Theory and empirical identification.
  2. Who are the climate migrants ? What are the implications for the economy ? Going from macro migration flows to micro-economic evidence.
  3. Is it possible to project future flows of climate migrants ? The use of general equilibrium models.
  4. Migration as climate change adaptation : modelling the underlying mechanisms and in situ adaptation choices.

Selected key references

  • Beine M., Parsons, C. (2015). “Climatic factors as determinants of international migration.” The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 117(2) : 723-767.
  • Benonnier, T., Millock, K., Taraz, V. (2022). « Long-term Migration Trends and Rising Temperatures : The Role of Irrigation », Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy 11(3) : 307-330.
  • Burzynski, M., Docquier, F., Duster, C., de Melo, J.(2022). “Climate change, inequality and human migration.” Journal of the European Economic Association 20(3), 1145-1197.
  • Cattaneo, C., Peri, G. (2016). “The migration response to increasing temperatures.” Journal of Development Economics 122(C) : 127-146.
  • Cattaneo, C., Beine, M., Fröhlich, C., Kniveton, D., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Mastrorillo, M., Millock, K., Piguet, E, Schraven, B. (2019). “Human migration in the era of climate change.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 13(2) : 189-206.
  • Dallmann, I., Millock, K. (2017). “Climate variability and inter-state migration in India.” CESifo Economic Studies 63(4) : 560-594.
  • Hornbeck, R. (2020). “Dust Bowl Migrants : Identifying an Archetype.” NBER Working Papers 27656.
  • Mahajan, P., Yang, D. (2020). “Taken by storm : hurricanes and migrant networks.” American Economic Journal : Applied Economics 12(2) : 250-277.

Political Economy of Migration - Hillel Rapoport

Overview
This short course will ask whether and how migration affects the political and cultural evolution of countries. It will present a general framework to think about these issues and then present in depth recent research papers focusing on a particular question and context. It will focus on the question of political and cultural selection into migration and on how political and cultural change arise through compositional and cultural transmission channels such as the dissemination of immigrants’ culture or through social remittances. It will on theoretical intuition and modelling as well as (and mostly) on empirical analyzes using mostly natural experiments and cross-country comparisons.

Structure

  1. Introduction : migration and political and cultural change – a general framework
  2. Emigration and political change : exit v. political remittances
  3. Migration and cultural change : dissemination v. Malthusian remittances

Selected key references
Students must prepare for the class by reading the required articles (denoted by **).

Part 1 : Introduction – a general framework

  • Alesina A. & Giuliano P., 2015, « Culture and institutions », Journal of Economic Literature, 53(4).
  • **Rapoport H., Silve A. & Sardoschau S., 2021, « Migration and cultural change », IZA Discussion Paper No 14772.

Part 2 : Emigration and Political Change

  • **Barsbai T., Rapoport H., Steinmayr A. & Trebesch C., 2017, « The effect of labor migration on the diffusion of democracy : evidence from a former Soviet Republic », American Economic Journal : Applied Economics.
  • **Barsbai T. & Rapoport H., 2020, « Exit and Voice : Germany », 1848-1933, Mimeo (presentation slides).
  • Docquier F., Lodigiani E., Rapoport H. & Schiff M., 2016, « Emigration and Democracy », Journal of Development Economics.
  • Karadja M. & Prawitz E., 2019, « Exit, Voice and Political Change : Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States », Journal of Political Economy.
  • Spilimbergo A., 2009, « Foreign students and democracy », American Economic Review.

Part 3 : Migration and cultural change

  • Abramitzky R., Boustan L. & Eriksson K., 2014, « A nation of immigrants : Assimilation and economic outcomes in the age of mass migration », Journal of Political Economy, 122(3).
  • **Bazzi S. et al., 2023, « The confederate diaspora », NBER Working Paper 31331, June.
  • Beck Knudsen A.-S., 2020, « Those who stayed : Individualism, self-selection and cultural change during the age of mass migration », Working Paper, Lund University.
  • Casari M., Ichino A., Michaeli M., De Paola M. & Scoppa V., 2022, « Civicness drain », Economic Journal.
  • Giuliano P. & Tabellini M., 2021, “The seeds of ideology : historical immigration and political preferences in the United States”, Working Paper.
  • Jarotschkin A., Miho A. & Zhuravskaya E., 2024, « Diffusion of Gender Norms : Evidence from Stalin’s Ethnic Deportations », Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming.
  • **Melki M., Rapoport H., Spolaore E. & Wacziarg R., 2023, « Cultural remittances and modern fertility », UCLA Anderson School Working Paper.

I. Immigration, Labor Markets, Productivity, Entrepreneurship and Firms - Giovanni Peri

The aim of these two classes will be to understand the consequences of immigrants on the labor market of the host country. Immigrants can act as substitute or complement to natives, which may affect labor supply and wages in different ways. In addition, by bringing new or complementary skills to the host labor market, immigrants may influence firm productivity. Overall, immigrants are likely to have large and sizable effects on the structure and the functioning of firms and the labor market more generally in the host country. We will investigate these questions both theoretically and empirically, paying particular attention to the methodological challenges raised by these questions.

Structure :

  • Basic model of labor market effect of immigrants : Labor markets and skills
  • The task approach
  • Dynamic responses in the labor markets
  • Impact on productivity, entrepreneurship and firms : empirical analysis and results

Selected key references

  • Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2012. « Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages, » Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 152-197, February.
  • Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2009. « Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages, » American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 135-169, July.
  • Cristina Cattaneo, Carlo V. Fiorio and Giovanni Peri, 2015. « What Happens to the Careers of European Workers When Immigrants Take Their Jobs ?, » Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 655-693.
  • Mette Foged and Giovanni Peri, 2016. « Immigrants’ Effect on Native Workers : New Analysis on Longitudinal Data, » American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.
  • Andreas Beerli & Jan Ruffner & Michael Siegenthaler & Giovanni Peri, 2021. « The Abolition of Immigration Restrictions and the Performance of Firms and Workers : Evidence from Switzerland, » American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 976-1012, March.
  • Gianluca Orefice & Giovanni Peri, 2020. « Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching, » NBER Working Papers 26860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

II. Assessing the causal effect of immigration : focus on methods - Giovanni Peri

Overview
The aim of these two classes is to dig deeper into the methods used in estimating the impact of immigration. First, we will analyze the instrumental variable method using a shift-share and we will follow the criticism and the recent evolution of this IV strategy. Then we will introduce methods used to analyze natural quasi-experiment and policies as tools to learn about the impact of immigration.

Structure

  • The shift-share IV method
  • Criticism and evolution of shift-share
  • Quasi-experiments

Selected key references

  • Giovanni Peri & Kevin Shih & Chad Sparber, 2015. « STEM Workers, H-1B Visas, and Productivity in US Cities, » Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(S1), pages 225-255.
  • Jaeger, Ruist, Stuhler (2017) “Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration” NBER Working Paper, November 2017.
  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. « Bartik Instruments : What, When, Why, and How, » American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
  • Giovanni Peri & Vasil Yasenov, 2019. « The Labor Market Effects of a Refugee Wave : Synthetic Control Method Meets the Mariel Boatlift, » Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 267-309.
  • Michael A. Clemens & Ethan G. Lewis & Hannah M. Postel, 2017. « Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy : Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion, » NBER Working Papers 23125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Identifying the development impacts of migration - Clement Imbert

Overview
Migration is a key feature of economic development, with workers leaving agriculture in rural areas to work in manufacturing and services in urban areas. As a result, the majority of the world’s migrants come from rural areas of developing countries. While most of them live in cities within the same country, many also live abroad. What are the consequences of rural-urban migration for the migrants themselves ? For the cities of destination ? For the villages of origin ? We will discuss the economic literature on rural migrants from developing countries, whether internal or international, permanent or seasonal migrants, and present experimental and non-experimental evidence.

Selected key references

  • Bryan, G., S. Chowdhury, and A. M. Mobarak (2014). Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology : The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh. Econometrica 82, 1671_1748.
  • Bryan, G. and M. Morten (2019). The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration : Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Political Economy 127 (5), 2229_2268.
  • Bustos, P., J. M. Castro Vincenzi, J. Monras, and J. Ponticelli (2018, December). Structural Transformation, Industrial Specialization, and Endogenous Growth. CEPR Discussion Papers 13379, .
  • Dinkelman T. and M. Mariotti (2016). The Long-Run Effects of Labor Migration on Human Capital Formation in Communities of Origin, American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 1-35, October.
  • Imbert, C. and J. Papp (2020). Costs and benefits of rural-urban migration : Evidence from India. Journal of Development Economics 146 (C).
  • Imbert, C. and J. Papp (2020). Short-term Migration, Rural Public Works, and Urban Labor Markets : Evidence from India. Journal of the European Economic Association 18 (2), 927_963.
  • Imbert, C., M. Seror, Y. Zylberberg, and Y. Zhang (2023). Migrants and Firms : Evidence from China. American Economic Review. Vol. 112, No. 6 p. 1885-1914.
  • Imbert, C. and G. Ulyssea (2023) Rural Migrants and Urban Informality : Evidence from Brazil. C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers No. 18160.
  • Khanna, G., Murathanoglu, E., Theoharides, C. B., and D. Yang (2022) Abundance from Abroad : Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development. NBER Discussion papers No. 29862.
  • Mobarak, A. M., I. Sharif I. and M. Shrestha, “Returns to International Migration : Evidence from a Bangladesh-Malaysia Visa Lottery,” CEPR Discussion Papers 15990.
  • Lagakos, D., S. Marshall, A. M. Mobarak, C. Vernot, and M. E. Waugh (2020). Migration costs and observational returns to migration in the developing world. Journal of Monetary Economics 113 (C), 138_154.
  • Lagakos, D., M. Mobarak, and M. Waugh (2018). The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration. Working Papers 2018-002, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  • Lagakos, D. (2020). Urban-Rural Gaps in the Developing World : Does Internal Migration Offer Opportunities ? Journal of Economic Perspectives 34 (3), 174192.
  • Tian, Y., J. Xia, and R. Yang (2020). Trade-induced urbanization and the making of modern agriculture. Discussion Papers 2020-16, University of Nottingham, GEP.
  • Yang, D. (2011, Summer). Migrant Remittances. Journal of Economic Perspectives 25 (3), 129152.

Contents – Migration Economics