### Séminaires

# Séminaire d’économétrie

Ce séminaire bimensuel porte sur l’économétrie théorique et appliquée. Il a lieu le lundi à 16h sur ZOOM sauf indication contraire.

- Responsables scientifiques : Xavier d’Haultfœuille (CREST) and Philipp Ketz (PSE)
- Responsable administratif :

Pour vous inscrire à la liste du séminaire Econométrie et recevoir par email les annonces des sessions avec le lien ZOOM : suivre ce lien

Ce séminaire bénéficie d’une aide de l’État gérée par l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche au titre du programme d’Investissement d’avenir portant la référence ANR-17-EURE-0001.

## Prochainement

**Lundi 12 septembre 2022 16:00-17:15****SEMENOVA Vira**(Berkeley) :__TBA__

## Archives

**Lundi 27 juin 2022 16:00-17:15****YOUNG Alwyn**(LSE) :__Consistency without Inference: Instrumental Variables in Practical Application__- RésuméI use Monte Carlo simulations, the jackknife and multiple forms of the bootstrap to study a comprehensive sample of 1309 instrumental variables regressions in 30 papers published in the journals of the American Economic Association. Monte Carlo simulations based upon published regressions show that non-iid error processes in highly leveraged regressions, both prominent features of published work, adversely affect the size and power of IV tests, while increasing the bias and mean squared error of IV relative to OLS. Weak instrument pre-tests based upon F statistics are found to be largely uninformative of both size and bias. In published papers IV has little power as, despite producing substantively different estimates, it rarely rejects the OLS point estimate or the null that OLS is unbiased, while the statistical significance of excluded instruments is exaggerated.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 20 juin 2022 16:00-17:15**- CREST, 5 Av. Le Chatelier, 91120 Palaiseau
**MAUREL Arnaud**(Duke University) :__Heterogeneity, Uncertainty and Learning: A Semiparametric Identification Analysis__**Co-authors: J. Bunting and P. Diegert**- RésuméIn this paper, we provide new semiparametric identification results for a general class of learning model in which outcomes of interest depend on i) predictable heterogeneity, ii) initially unpredictable heterogeneity that may be revealed over time, and iii) transitory uncertainty. We consider a common environment where the researcher only has access to longitudinal data on choices and outcomes. We establish point-identification of the outcome equation parameters and the distribution of the three types of unobservables, under the standard assumption that unpredictable heterogeneity and uncertainty are normally distributed. We also show that a pure learning model remains identified without making any distributional assumption. We then derive a sieve MLE estimator for the model parameters, which is shown to exhibit good finite-sample performances and is very tractable in practice.

**Lundi 13 juin 2022 16:00-17:15****YOUNG Alwyn**(LSE) :__This talk has been cancelled and will be rescheduled.__- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 30 mai 2022 16:00-17:15****STOULI Sami**(Bristol) :__Gaussian transforms modeling and the estimation of distributional regression functions__**Co-author: Richard Spady**- RésuméWe propose flexible Gaussian representations for conditional cumulative distribution functions and give a concave likelihood criterion for their estimation. Optimal representations satisfy the monotonicity property of conditional cumulative distribution functions, including in finite samples and under general misspecification. We use these representations to provide a unified framework for the flexible Maximum Likelihood estimation of conditional density, cumulative distribution, and quantile functions at parametric rate. Our formulation yields substantial simplifications and finite sample improvements over related methods. An empirical application to the gender wage gap in the United States illustrates our framework.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 16 mai 2022 16:00-17:15**- R1-14
**MCCLOSKEY Adam**(University of Colorado, Boulder ) :__Short and Simple Confidence Intervals when the Directions of Some Effects are Known__**Co-author: Philipp Ketz**- RésuméWe introduce adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters, such as coefficients on control variables, with known signs. Our confidence intervals are trivial to compute and can provide significant length reductions relative to standard ones when the nuisance parameters are small. At the same time, they entail minimal length increases at any parameter values. We apply our confidence intervals to the linear regression model, prove their uniform validity and illustrate their length properties in an empirical application to a factorial design field experiment and a Monte Carlo study calibrated to the empirical application.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Jeudi 14 avril 2022 11:00-12:00**- PSE, Salle R2.21
**DE PAULA Aureo**(UCL) :__Identifying Network Ties from Panel Data: Theory and an Application to Tax Competition__**Co-authors: Imran Rasul and Pedro CL Souza**- RésuméSocial interactions determine many economic behaviors, but information on social ties does not exist in most publicly available and widely used datasets. We present results on the identification of social networks from observational panel data that contains no information on social ties between agents. In the context of a canonical social interactions model, we provide sufficient conditions under which the social interactions matrix, endogenous and exogenous social effect parameters are all globally identified. While this result is relevant across different estimation strategies, we then describe how high-dimensional estimation techniques can be used to estimate the interactions model based on the Adaptive Elastic Net GMM method. We employ the method to study tax competition across US states. We find the identified social interactions matrix implies tax competition differs markedly from the common assumption of competition between geographically neighboring states, providing further insights for the long-standing debate on the relative roles of factor mobility and yardstick competition in driving tax setting behavior across states. Most broadly, our identification and application show the analysis of social interactions can be extended to economic realms where no network data exists.
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**Vendredi 8 avril 2022 14:30-15:45**- CREST, Salle 3001
**MILLER Robert**(Cargnegie Mellon University) :__Search and Matching by Race and Gender__**Co-author: Rebecca Lessem**- RésuméThis project uses data from a large firm that provided information on all job applications as well as labor market outcomes within the firm over a 5 year period. Careful analysis of the data shows that African Americans and women engage in more overt job search activity within the organization than Caucasian males, attain shorter tenure on each job, and experience slower wage growth. Furthermore, we see some differences across race and gender when we look at each stage of the application process. In particular, we see that African Americans are more likely to apply for positions that they do not meet the minimal qualifications for, and both African Americans and women are more likely to withdraw from the application process. We also see that African Americans are less likely to be interviewed for a position, although we do not see any differences with race for hiring probabilities conditional on being interviewed. To explain these empirical patterns, we develop and estimate a model of two sided search and matching, in which positions become vacant when the current occupant of the job leaves, the firm begins a search process by advertising the position, and workers employed both inside and outside the organization apply for the newly vacated position. Workers choose their intensity of job search by setting a threshold above which they would accept a job offer. The applicants are culled during a hiring process that lead both parties to become more informed about the potential job match with each applicant. The successful applicant accumulates experience on-the-job. After estimating the model, we will use counterfactuals to understand more about the differences in the search and matching process across racial and gender groups, as well as how that affects wage outcomes. First, we know in the data that the durations that people stay in a job differs by race and gender. Our counterfactuals can analyze how large of a role these durations play in the hiring process. Second, we can study how outcomes would change if the hiring committee is forced to interview more or fewer candidates. This can help to understand how institutional restrictions will affect the likelihood that an individual is offered a position.

**Lundi 21 mars 2022 16:00-17:15****DOVONON Prosper**(Concordia University) :__Specification Testing for Conditional Moment Restrictions under Local Identification Failure__**Co-author: Nikolay Gospodinov**- RésuméIn this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the specification test in conditional moment restrictions model under first-order local identification failure with dependent data. More specifically, we obtain conditions under which the conventional specification test for conditional moment restrictions remains valid when first-order local identification fails but global identification is still attainable. In the process, we obtain some novel intermediate results that include extending the first- and second-order local identification framework to models defined by conditional moment restrictions, characterizing the rate of convergence of the GMM estimator and the limiting representation for degenerate U-statistics under strong mixing dependence. Simulation and empirical results illustrate the properties and the practical relevance of the proposed testing framework.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 7 mars 2022 16:00-17:15****BEYHUM Jad**(ENSAI - CREST) :__Instrumental variable estimation of dynamic treatment effects on a survival outcome__**Co-authors: Samuele Centorrino, Jean-Pierre Florens, and Ingrid Van Keilegom**- RésuméThis paper considers identification and estimation of the causal effect of the time Z until a subject is treated on a survival outcome T. The treatment is not randomly assigned, T is randomly right censored by a random variable C and the time to treatment Z is right censored by min(T,C) The endogeneity issue is treated using an instrumental variable explaining Z and independent of the error term of the model. We study identification in a fully nonparametric framework. We show that our specification generates an integral equation, of which the regression function of interest is a solution. We provide identification conditions that rely on this identification equation. For estimation purposes, we assume that the regression function follows a parametric model. We propose an estimation procedure and give conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically normal. The estimators exhibit good finite sample properties in simulations. Our methodology is applied to find evidence supporting the efficacy of a therapy for burn-out.
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**Lundi 14 février 2022 16:00-17:15****ANANTH Abhishek**(University of Geneva) :__Optimal Treatment Assignment Rules on Networked Populations__- RésuméI study the problem of optimally distributing treatments among individuals on a network in the presence of spillovers in the effect of treatment across linked individuals. In this paper, I consider the problem of a planner who needs to distribute a limited number of preventative treatments (e.g., vaccines) for a deadly infectious disease among individuals in a target village in order to maximize population welfare. Since the planner does not know the extent of spillovers or the heterogeneity in treatment effects, she uses data coming from an experiment conducted in a separate pilot village. By placing restrictions on how others’ treatments affect one’s outcome on the contact network, I derive theoretical limits on how the data from the experiment could be used to best allocate the treatments when the planner observes the contact network structure in both the target and pilot village. For this purpose, I extend the empirical welfare maximization (EWM) procedure to derive an optimal statistical treatment rule. Under restrictions on the shape of the contact network, I provide finite sample bounds for the uniform regret (a measure of the effectiveness of a treatment rule). The main takeaway is that the uniform regret associated with EWM, extended to account for spillovers, converges to 0 at the parametric rate as the size of the pilot experiment grows. I also show that no statistical treatment rule admits a faster rate of convergence for the uniform regret, suggesting that the EWM procedure is rate-optimal.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 31 janvier 2022 16:00-17:15****HIRSHBERG David**(Emory) :__The Basis for Inference based on Synthetic Control Methods__- RésuméSynthetic Control methods are becoming popular far beyond the context of comparative case studies in which they first proposed. It is no longer the rule that they are used only when we have one (or few) treated units. But despite recent attention, there is little consensus on when they work and how to do inference based on them. That there is no one way to think about panel data makes this difficult. In some interpretations, we are solving what is essentially a matrix completion problem with noise that is completely unrelated to selection of treatment; in others, we are inverse propensity weighting to adjust for the selection of treatment based on past outcomes, noise and all. In this talk, I will discuss some results characterizing synthetic control estimation based on these two interpretations, drawing on the literature on synthetic control estimators for panel data as well as that on covariate balancing or calibrated inverse propensity weighting estimators for cross-sectional data. And I will highlight some issues that become apparent when we try to mix these perspectives, approaching inference based on selection of treatment from a perspective in which behaviors specific to individual units, i.e. fixed effects— interactive or otherwise, are needed to explain the heterogeneity of the data.

**Lundi 13 décembre 2021 16:00-17:15****KOLESAR Michal**(Princeton) :__On Estimating Multiple Treatment Effects with Regression__**Co-authors: Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham and Peter Hull**- RésuméWe study the causal interpretation of regressions on multiple dependent treatments and flexible controls. Such regressions are often used to analyze randomized control trials with multiple intervention arms, and to estimate institutional quality (e.g. teacher value-added) with observational data. We show that, unlike with a single binary treatment, these regressions do not generally estimate convex averages of causal effects-even when the treatments are conditionally randomly assigned and the controls fully address omitted variables bias. We discuss different solutions to this issue, and propose as a solution anew class of efficient estimators of weighted average treatment effects.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 29 novembre 2021 16:00-17:15****ESCANCIANO Juan Carlos**(UC3M) :__Debiased Semiparametric U-Statistics: with an Application to Inequality of Opportunity__

**Lundi 8 novembre 2021 17:30-18:45****SANTOS Andres**(UCLA) :__Inference for Large-Scale Linear Systems with Known Coefficients__**Co-authors: Z. Fang, A. Shaikh, and A. Torgovitsky**- RésuméThis paper considers the problem of testing whether there exists a non-negative solution to a possibly under-determined system of linear equations with known coefficients. This hypothesis testing problem arises naturally in a number of settings, including random coefficient, treatment effect, and discrete choice models, as well as a class of linear programming problems. As a first contribution, we obtain a novel geometric characterization of the null hypothesis in terms of identified parameters satisfying an infinite set of inequality restrictions. Using this characterization, we devise a test that requires solving only linear programs for its implementation, and thus remains computationally feasible in the high-dimensional applications that motivate our analysis. The asymptotic size of the proposed test is shown to equal at most the nominal level uniformly over a large class of distributions that permits the number of linear equations to grow with the sample size.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 18 octobre 2021 16:00-17:15****ROTH Jonathan**(Brown University) :__Efficient Estimation for Staggered Rollout Designs__**Co-author: Pedro Sant'Anna**- RésuméThis paper studies efficient estimation of causal effects when treatment is (quasi-) randomly rolled out to units at different points in time. We solve for the most efficient estimator in a class of estimators that nests two-way fixed effects models and other popular generalized difference-in-differences methods. A feasible plug-in version of the efficient estimator is asymptotically unbiased with efficiency (weakly) dominating that of existing approaches. We provide both t-based and permutation-test based methods for inference. We illustrate the performance of the plug-in efficient estimator in simulations and in an application to Wood et al. (2020a)'s study of the staggered rollout of a procedural justice training program for police officers. We find that confidence intervals based on the plug-in efficient estimator have good coverage and can be as much as five times shorter than confidence intervals based on existing state-of-the-art methods. As an empirical contribution of independent interest, our application provides the most precise estimates to date on the effectiveness of procedural justice training programs for police officers.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 4 octobre 2021 16:00-17:15****MOREIRA Marcelo**(FGV) :__Efficiency Loss of Asymptotically Efficient Tests in An Instrumental Variables Regression + Optimal Invariant Tests in an Instrumental Variables Regression With Heteroskedastic and Autocorrelated Errors__**Co-authors: Geert Ridder and Mahrad Sharifvaghefi**

**Lundi 27 septembre 2021 16:00-17:00****HAZARD Yagan**(Paris School of Economics) :__Rescuing low-compliance RCTs__**Co-author: Simon Loewe**

**Lundi 14 juin 2021 16:00-17:15**- Online
**KOOPMAN Siem Jan**( Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) :__Forecasting in a changing world: from the great recession to the COVID-19 pandemic__**Co-authors: Mariia Artemova, Francisco Blasques, and Zhaokun Zhang**- RésuméWe develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear dynamic models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex nonlinearities, or other time-varying properties which cannot be easily captured by model design. Additionally, the method reduces to classical maximum likelihood when the model is well specified, which results in weights which are set uniformly to one. We show how the optimal weights can be set by means of a cross-validation procedure. In a set of Monte Carlo experiments we reveal that the estimation method can significantly improve the forecasting accuracy of autoregressive models. In an empirical study concerned with forecasting the U.S. Industrial Production, we show that the forecast accuracy during the Great Recession can be significantly improved by giving greater weight to observations associated with past recessions. We further establish that the same empirical finding can be found for the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, for different macroeconomic time series, and for the COVID-19 recession in 2020.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 10 mai 2021 16:00-17:15**- online
**ABADIE Alberto**(MIT) :__A Penalized Synthetic Control Estimator for Disaggregated Data__**Co-author: Jérémy L'Hour**- RésuméSynthetic control methods are commonly applied in empirical research to estimate the effects of treatments or interventions on aggregate outcomes. A synthetic control estimator compares the outcome of a treated unit to the outcome of a weighted average of untreated units that best resembles the characteristics of the treated unit before the intervention. When disaggregated data are available, constructing separate synthetic controls for each treated unit may help avoid interpolation biases. However, the problem of finding a synthetic control that best reproduces the characteristics of a treated unit may not have a unique solution. Multiplicity of solutions is a particularly daunting challenge when the data includes many treated and untreated units. To address this challenge, we propose a synthetic control estimator that penalizes the pairwise discrepancies between the characteristics of the treated units and the characteristics of the units that contribute to their synthetic controls. The penalization parameter trades off pairwise matching discrepancies with respect to the characteristics of each unit in the synthetic control against matching discrepancies with respect to the characteristics of the synthetic control unit as a whole. We study the properties of this estimator and propose data-driven choices of the penalization parameter.

**Lundi 12 avril 2021 16:00-17:15****KOCK Anders**(Aarhus University/University of Oxford) :__Consistency of p-norm based tests in high-dimensions: characterization, monotonicity, domination__**Co-author: David Preinerstorfer**- RésuméTo understand how the choice of a norm affects power properties of tests in high-dimensions, we study the consistency sets of p-norm based tests in the prototypical framework of sequence models with unrestricted parameter spaces. The consistency set of a test is here defined as the set of all arrays of alternatives the test is consistent against as the dimension of the parameter space diverges. We characterize the consistency sets of p-norm based tests and find, in particular, that the consistency against an array of alternatives can not be determined solely in terms of the p-norm of the alternative. Our characterization also reveals an unexpected monotonicity result: namely that the consistency set is strictly increasing in p \in (0,\infty), such that tests based on higher p strictly dominate those based on lower p in terms of consistency. This monotonicity allows us to construct novel tests that dominate, with respect to their consistency behavior, all p-norm based tests without sacrificing asymptotic size.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 8 mars 2021 16:00-17:15****KASY Maximilian**(University of Oxford) :__The social impact of algorithmic decision making: Economic perspectives__**https://maxkasy.github.io/home/files/papers/adaptive_combinatorial.pdf**- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 8 février 2021 16:00-17:15**- online
**RAI Yoshiyasu**(University of Mannheim) :__Statistical Inference for Treatment Assignment Policies__- RésuméIn this paper, I study the statistical inference problem for treatment assignment policies. In typical applications, individuals with different characteristics are expected to differ in their responses to treatment. Hence, treatment assignment policies that allocate treatment based on individuals’ observed characteristics can have a significant influence on outcomes and welfare. A growing literature proposes various approaches to estimating the welfare-maximizing treatment assignment policy. This paper complements this work on estimation by developing a method of inference for treatment assignment policies that can be used to assessing the precision of estimated optimal policies. In particular, for the welfare criterion used by Kitagawa and Tetenov (2018), my method constructs (i) a confidence set for the optimal policy and (ii) a confidence interval for the maximized welfare. A simulation study indicates that the proposed methods work well with modest sample size. I apply the method to experimental data from the National Job Training Partnership Act study.

**Lundi 14 décembre 2020 16:00-17:15****FREYBERGER Joachim**(University of Bonn) :__Normalizations and misspecification in skill formation models__- RésuméAn important class of structural models investigates the determinants of skill formation and the optimal timing of interventions. To achieve point identification of the parameters, researcher typically normalize the scale and location of the unobserved skills. This paper shows that these seemingly innocuous restrictions can severely impact the interpretation of the parameters and counterfactual predictions. For example, simply changing the units of measurements of observed variables might yield ineffective investment strategies and misleading policy recommendations. To tackle these problems, this paper provides a new identification analysis, which pools all restrictions of the model, characterizes the identified set of all parameters without normalizations, illustrates which features depend on these normalizations, and introduces a new set of important policy-relevant parameters that are identified under weak assumptions and yield robust conclusions. As a byproduct, this paper also presents a general and formal definition of when restrictions are truly normalizations.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 9 novembre 2020 16:00-17:15****RENAULT Jérôme**(TSE) :__Approximate Maximum Likelihood for Complex Structural Models__**Co-authors: D.T. Frazier and V. Czellar**- RésuméIndirect Inference (I-I) is a popular technique for estimating complex parametric models whose likelihood function is intractable, however, the statistical efficiency of I-I estimation is questionable. While the efficient method of moments, Gallant and Tauchen (1996), promises efficiency, the price to pay for this efficiency is a loss of parsimony and thereby a potential lack of robustness to model misspecification. This stands in contrast to simpler I-I estimation strategies, which are known to display less sensitivity to model misspecification precisely due to their focus on specific elements of the underlying structural model. In this research, we propose a new simulation-based approach that maintains the parsimony of I-I estimation, which is often critical in empirical applications, but can also deliver estimators that are nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood. This new approach is based on using a constrained approximation to the structural model, which ensures identification and can deliver estimators that are nearly efficient. We demonstrate this approach through several examples, and show that this approach can deliver estimators that are nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood, when feasible, but can be employed in many situations where maximum likelihood is infeasible.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 12 octobre 2020 16:00-17:15**- on line
**GUNSILIUS Florian**(University of Michigan) :__Distributional synthetic controls__- RésuméThis article extends the method of synthetic controls to probability measures. The distribution of the synthetic control group is obtained as the optimally weighted barycenter in Wasserstein space of the distributions of the control groups which minimizes the distance to the distribution of the treatment group. It can be applied to settings with disaggregated- or aggregated (functional) data. The method produces a generically unique counterfactual distribution when the data are continuously distributed. A basic representation of the barycenter provides a computationally efficient implementation via a straightforward tensor-variate regression approach. In addition, identification results are provided that also shed new light on the classical synthetic controls estimator. As an illustration, the method provides an estimate of the counterfactual distribution of household income in Colorado one year after Amendment 64.
- Texte intégral [pdf]

**Lundi 14 septembre 2020 16:00-17:15****KAMAT Vishal**(Toulouse School of Economics) :__Estimating the Welfare Effects of School Vouchers__**Co-author: S. Norris**- RésuméWe analyze the welfare effects of voucher provision in the DC Opportunity Scholarship Program (OSP), a school voucher program in Washington, DC, that randomly allocated vouchers to students. To do so, we develop new discrete choice tools to show how to use data with random allocation of school vouchers to characterize what we can learn about the welfare benefits of providing a voucher of a given amount, as measured by the average willingness to pay for that voucher, and these benefits net of the costs of providing that voucher. A novel feature of our tools is that they allow specifying the relationship of the demand for the various schools with respect to prices to be entirely nonparametric or to be parameterized in a flexible manner, both of which do not necessarily imply that the welfare parameters are point identified. Applying our tools to the OSP data, we find that provision of the status-quo as well as a wide range of counterfactual voucher amounts has a positive net average benefit. We find these positive results arise due to the presence of many low-tuition schools in the program, removing these schools from the program can result in a negative net average benefit.
- Texte intégral [pdf]