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• Lundi 20 juin 2022 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle Banquier S03) 75013 Paris

  LODI Luca (Macerata University, Paris 1) : Population distribution and export performance: estimates from a structural gravity model.

  Résumé

  According to various fields of the economic literature, population distribution and different degrees of urbanization, within and between countries, affect their productivity and specialization. This paper investigates the effect of population density on export performance by adapting a structural gravity framework to include country-specific (mainly geographical) features and distinguishing between trade frictions and productivity fundamentals. The model allows explaining the empirical results that show the heterogeneous impacts of population concentration on trade by sectors and the relative effect of density on international sales with respect to the domestic market.

• Lundi 23 mai 2022 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, Room Banquier: S03) 75013 Paris

  NERI--LAINÉ Matteo (Paris Dauphine University - PSL) : Sovereign Gravity -- The Military Alliances’ Effect on trade and its implication in structural gravity

  Résumé

  This paper tests and analyses the effect of military alliances on bilateral exports. Using CEPII’s and Correlate of War’s country-level data from 1967 to 2012, we perform a gravity approach. Our baseline's results show that alliances increase trade by 60%. We confirm the causality with an instrumental variable estimation. Thanks to the estimation of the differenced average treatment on the treated à la Couch and Placzek (2008), we show a stronger effect of 80% for the deepest alliances. Moreover, we determine this huge impact can be explained by alliances’ ability to create strong military cooperation. Therefore, they imply for exporting firms a decrease in their expropriation risk and a lower cost of information. In line with our empirical results, we formalize and include the military alliances in a generalizable theoretical structural gravity model. Performing a general equilibrium analysis, we demonstrate the trade liberalization enforced by military alliances leads to substantial welfare gains for signatories, but also losses for non-aligned countries.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 9 mai 2022 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle Banquier S03) 75013 Paris

  BOIS Clémence (PSE, Paris 1) : Trade, Reputation, and the Diesel Gate

  Pamina Koenig (PSE, Université de Rouen)

  Résumé

  In September 2015 the US Environmental Protection Agency issued a notice which opened a scandal now know as the Dieselgate: the note shows that the German automaker Volkswagen cheated on the Clean Air Act by intentionally programming its diesel engine vehicles to reduce their emissions controls only during laboratory testing. In this paper, we hypothesize that these revelations may have had an impact on consumers' perceptions of the quality of the German car firm, and potentially also of a broader group of goods associated with the country's manufacturing quality attributes. We use product-level bilateral trade data to estimate whether German exports of Diesel passenger cars were modified after September 2015. We rely on a difference-in-difference approach and compare the exports of Diesel engine vehicles to those of goods that were not affected by the scandal. We further analyze whether the effects vary according to the level of consumers information about the scandal in each country, proxied by their google searches relative to the event.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 11 avril 2022 13:00-14:00

  MSE(112, Blv de l'Hôpital, Room Banquier: S03) 75013 Paris

  FRANÇOIS Manon (PSE) : The ownership structure of multinational enterprises and tax avoidance: complexity matters

  Vincent Vicard (CEPII)

  Résumé

  Does the complexity of multinationals' ownership structure serve tax avoidance? We use cross-country firm-level data to provide a description of the complexity determinants of ownership structure of multinational firms and show that affiliates belonging to more complex MNEs are more likely to report zero profit, consistent with tax avoidance by multinational firms.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 28 mars 2022 13:00-14:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle S/03

  VERDINI Daniele (UCLouvain, FNRS) : Globalization and Market Power

  Catherine Fuss (National Bank of Belgium) & Lorenzo Trimarchi (University of Namur)

  Résumé

  Recent decades have been characterized by a substantial increase in firms' market power both in the U.S. and the EU. In this paper, we study the role played by globalization in determining the evolution of this phenomenon. We use detail firm-level balance sheet and trade data for Belgian manufacturing over the period 2000-2015, and following the identification strategy proposed in Acemoglu et al. (2016), we provide a causal analysis of the impact of rising trade exposure on various measures of market power. Along standard concentration measures, we estimate firm-level markups over the period by applying De Loecker and Warzynski (2012) methodology. We estimate that, following the surge of Chinese import competition, relatively more exposed industries do experience an increase in markups over time. These changes are not driven by reallocation between firms, but by within adjustments of the incumbents.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 14 mars 2022 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle Banquier: S03) 75013 Paris

  BOCQUET Leonard (PSE) : The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation

  Résumé

  There is a growing concern that the reallocation of worker might be quite slow after trade or technological shocks. In this paper, I study the determinants of the speed of the worker reallocation process. My first contribution is to document the extent of frictions to occupational mobility thwarting the reallocation process. The basic idea is that skill dissimilarity prevents workers to achieve certain professional transitions. The originality of my approach is to view these frictions as representing a network, whose nodes are occupations and edges are possible occupational transitions. I find that this network is sparse, hinting at large frictions to occupational mobility, and that some highly central occupations have the potential to block the entire reallocation process. Second, I build a model of search and matching of the labor market, which I augment with an occupational network. I give an analytical characterization of the equilibrium and clarify how the occupational network shapes the distribution of equilibrium wages and tightness ratios. Perhaps surprisingly, I find that the steady-state worker distribution is quite similar to that of the standard model but that the transition dynamics are very different. I show that the model can account for transition dynamics which are two orders of magnitude slower than predicted by the standard model. Therefore, this model suggests an explanation for the sluggishness of labor market adjustments after certain shocks.

• Lundi 14 février 2022 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital) 75013 Paris

  DELPEUCH Samuel (Sciences po) : Investor vs. planet earth ? - Protected investments in the fossil fuel industry

  Résumé

  The rapid spread of Investors-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions in international agreements provides foreign investors with increased ways to contest adverse regulatory changes. Based on empirical evidences from the energy sector, this paper ask to which extent the use ISDS instruments affects taxation and subsidies faced by multinational firms. Firms operating in the energy industry face important regulatory evolution due to the climate crisis. At the same time, these firmst are typically immobile and therefore very exposed to local policy changes. Preliminary findings suggests that ISDS cases tend to act as signals and to be associated with a reduction in the ambition of governments' environmental efforts.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 31 janvier 2022 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/97695651406?pwd=YldRUXh3eHA0Zk1XODJVaHdlSHdxUT09

  ASCIONE Fabio (Paris 1 ) : A lending hand from abroad? Corporate saving and imported intermediate inputs in three European countries

  Résumé

  Rising corporate saving has figured prominently in the debate on economic inequality and the emergence of global imbalances, even though little is known on the detrimental drivers of this dramatic trend. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of corporate saving by highlighting the role of intermediate input importing from non-financial industries in Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands over the period 2000-2014. Combining comprehensive firm-level data from the Orbis Bureau Van Dijk database with industry information on imported intermediate inputs from the World Input-Output Database, I find robust evidence that expanded access to cheaper intermediates has significantly contributed to the rise in corporate saving. The effects are particularly strong for imports from Eastern Europe and somewhat weaker for imports from China. These findings imply that the increasing fragmentation of production of the non-financial sector has contributed considerably to corporate sector surpluses, and hence to macroeconomic imbalances and economic inequality while qualifying Eastern Europe as special in that it accounts for the bulk of these surpluses in major current account surplus countries.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 17 janvier 2022 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/92845411750?pwd=Nko5aFBoLzc1ZnFEOWpaZEhmUFhsZz09

  RAGAB Dina (University of Paris 1, Cairo University) : Does Past Informality Status Affect the Adoption of Foreign Technology in the Emerging Economies?

  Boris Najman (UPEC)

  Résumé

  Informality has become a prevailing phenomenon in emerging economies. Using the World Bank Enterprise Survey for a large cross-section of emerging economies between 2006 and 2020, we examine the effect of informality costs on the adoption of foreign technology. The hypothesis tested is that the formal firms which started their operations unofficially at some point in the past are less likely to adopt foreign technology even after formalization. Accounting for endogeneity, results show that past informality status has a persistent and negative effect on the adoption of foreign technology. We also discuss the moderating role of other variables on this relationship. Results show that the exporting activities, the high quality of institutions, and the investment in human capital weaken the negative impact of the informal creation of a formal firm on the adoption of foreign technology. These findings are robust to a range of firm and country characteristics as well as checks for endogeneity concerns.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 6 décembre 2021 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle 116) 75013 Paris

  ABELE Christian (PSE) : Reputation in International Trade - Evidence from the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

  Kentaro Asai (PSE)

  Résumé

  A country’s reputation may be an important determinant of its ability to export but the effect is notoriously difficult to isolate from underlying product attributes. We exploit the Fukushima nuclear disaster as a sudden large-scale shock to the reputation of Japanese food exports, where nonetheless not all products were affected similarly. Since exposure to radiation and import bans varied by product and prefecture, we use agricultural production data to identify unaffected products and compare their exports to exports of other countries in the same destination market. For all exports to the EU we find, a massive but short-lived drop in the value and number of products exported while prices increased. Unaffected products exhibit attenuated effects indicating that a change in the perceived riskiness of a country plays a role in explaining trade flows.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 22 novembre 2021 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle 116) 75013 Paris

  REVERDY Camille (University of Paris 1 ) : Building a new reputation: the impact of the adoption of voluntary standards

  Résumé

  Raising environmental awareness has lead to the proliferation of environmental management systems (EMS). An EMS helps organizations identify, manage, monitor and control their environmental issues in a “holistic” manner. It also aims at helping the organization to reduce its environmental impacts and increase its operating efficiency. Using detailed French administrative data, I first estimate the effect of certification on firm performance. I observe that the environmental certification acts as a `signal' allowing firms to sell their products at a higher price. However, this effect is heterogeneous across firms, i.e: bigger firms are able to export more once certified whereas the increase in production costs is too large for smaller firms, and across products (the effect is magnified for differentiated products). Secondly, the environmental certification positively affects firms' environmental performance through investments.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 8 novembre 2021 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle 116) 75013 Paris

  CHAVEZ Emmanuel (PSE) : Who pays for a Value Added Tax Hike at an International Border? Evidence from Mexico

  Cristóbal Domínguez (Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores)

  Résumé

  This research studies the effects of a value added tax (VAT) reform at Mexico's international frontiers. The reform raised the VAT rate from 11 to 16 percent at localities close to the international borders. We use the traditional ``static'' difference-in-differences methodology as well as dynamic difference-in-differences. The treatment group is composed of municipalities in the area where the VAT increased, and the control group is composed of municipalities close to the treatment group. We find that the VAT hike had a positive effect on prices of around half the size of the full pass-through conterfactual. In addition, the reform had a negative effect on workers' wages and no effect on employment. The negative effect on workers' real incomes is not smoothed out with credits. We find evidence of a negative effect on consumption at Mexico's northern border due to the reform. However, we find no evidence of an increase in shopping at the United States side of the border.

• Lundi 25 octobre 2021 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital) salle 116 75013 Paris

  KÖGEL Clara (Paris 1, OECD) : Air pollution and productivity: Evidence from France

  Résumé

  There are common beliefs that agglomeration and manufacturing enhance the productivity of firms. However, these factors also increase air pollution, which can have an adverse effect on productivity. This paper investigates the effect of air pollution on labour productivity in French firms in both manufacturing and non-financial market services sectors from 2000 to 2018. I use an instrumental variable approach, based on planetary boundary layer height, to identify the causal impact of air pollution on labour productivity. I estimate that a 1 µg/m3 increase in fine particulate matter concentrations (PM 2.5) leads on average to a 4.5% decrease in labour productivity. I also find that the negative effect of pollution is less pronounced for digital intensive firms. These estimates suggest that the negative impact of air pollution is much larger than previously thought.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 11 octobre 2021 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital 75013 Paris), salle 116

  MAZET Clément (Banque de France, Sciences Po and Collège de France) : Search Frictions in Credit Markets

  Résumé

  Motivated by empirical evidence I document on local credit markets in France using data on more than 3.5 million bank-firm relationships, I propose a theory of bank-firm matching subject to search frictions. Firms undergo a costly search process to locate and match with the right banking partner. Upon matching, agency frictions hinder banks ability to optimally screen and monitor projects. I structurally estimate my model on French data using the staggered roll-out of Broadband Internet, from 1997 to 2007, as a shock to search frictions. I confirm the model predictions that a reduction in search frictions affects the allocation of credit and the dynamics of firm-bank matching. Finally, I use the structure of my model to quantify the impact of this technology-induced reduction in search frictions on loan prices. I find that broadband internet access reduced the cost of debt for small businesses by 4.9%.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 27 septembre 2021 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle 116) 75013 Paris

  GOURDON Karin (PSE) : Intra- vs. international transport costs -- the case of US exports to Canada and Mexico

  Résumé

  Trade economists have intensively investigated the impact of international trade costs on trade flows by using distance measures as a robust approximation of trade costs. However, traditional distance measures between trading partners usually are too aggregated across space to separately inform about the effect of intra-national and international transport costs on trade flows. This paper draws on detailed transport-data for the US to analyse the effect of intra-national transport costs on exports based on a structural gravity model estimated by a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood. The results reveal that intra-national transport costs of US exports are lower in absolute terms than their international counterparts: An increase in intra-US distance by 1% is associated with a decrease in US exports by on average .5% compared to 1.2% for international transport distance. Further results on distances travelled by different transport modes imply that trade impediments related to road transportation have a significantly stronger effect on US-exports than those related to other major transport modes studied in this paper. These findings are of interest to policy-makers and academics alike: to support policy-decisions about national infrastructure projects related to international integration and sustainable development, as well as to exploit a more precise measure of intra-national trade costs for structural gravity analysis.

• Lundi 13 septembre 2021 13:00-14:00

  MSE - Room 116

  SABBADINI Giulia (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID)) : Firm-Level Prices and Markups:The Role of Immigrant Employment and Input Quality

  Résumé

  Exploiting data for French manufacturing traders, this paper presents evidence of a positive effect of immigrant workers on firm-level markups that is attributable to price differences. Immigrant workers allow firms to access imported intermediate inputs of higher quality and therefore produce higher quality final goods for the export market. This quality advantage translates into firms charging higher export prices and markups. I provide econometric evidence in support of this mechanism. First, I show that the prices of exported final goods are positively affected by immigrant workers within narrowly defined varieties. Consistently, I find that immigrant workers positively affect the quality of exported final goods. Second, I show that there is a positive relationship between the price of imported intermediate inputs and the share of immigrant workers, which reflects differences in input quality. Finally, I provide suggestive evidence that immigrant workers allow firms to buy higher quality inputs by lowering upstream information frictions.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 14 juin 2021 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93088322381?pwd=RkVaVWsvcnJPbEgzNnJzQUlFS2JiQT09

  ZUNIGA-CORDERO Alvaro (PSE) : Globalization, income inequality and political realignment: evidence from Costa Rica

  Résumé

  This project aims to test whether globalization shocks (trade, FDI, and immigration) could explain part of the transition from a two-party to a multi-party system, such as the striking change in the political landscape in Costa Rica that started around 2000. We study the effect of several FTA signed by the country in the last two decades, and two immigration waves from Nicaragua in the same period, on electoral outcomes (turnout, voting shares, campaign contributions). We make two main contributions: (1) expand the extensive literature on the subject by exploring globalization and political realignment in a developing country with a long democratic tradition, and (2) combine administrative data at the individual level to answer these questions. We observe that districts with higher levels of income inequality vote less in both presidential and local elections, and districts with more immigrants also exhibit lower electoral turnout. Similarly, while higher exposure to trade and FDI reduce private campaign contributions, especially to traditional parties, higher exposure to immigrants increases them. Hence, those “affected” by international trade and FDI support new parties, while those “affected” by immigration find refuge in the traditional ones.

• Lundi 31 mai 2021 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/95087063366?pwd=NjhMT2xKWTlnb3B0dS9veGFicm1BUT09

  REVERDY Camille (University of Paris 1 ) : Technical regulations, intermediate inputs and sourcing decisions

  Irene Iodice (Paris 1)

  Résumé

  Motivated by the growing share of technical standards regulating intermediate inputs, this paper investigates the role of standards in the sourcing decisions of international firms. We begin by building a novel database which fills the missing information on the product classification of all technical barriers to trade (TBTs) that have been notified to the WTO over the period 1995-2020, improving on the coverage of TBTs compared to existing sources. We combine this information with a World Bank database on the depth of trade agreements, including information such as the inclusion of specific provisions on TBT. We then cross-reference this database with a firm-level panel of French importers. We find that the introduction of a TBT by the European Union affect French firms' incentive to source its inputs within the EU. Following the enforcement of a TBT by the EU, we observe that the propensity to switch supplier country depends on firms' characteristics.

• Lundi 17 mai 2021 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/97399860624?pwd=QlA3TGtITGNtZkpuT0VLSDVUMllCdz09

  SZTAJEROWSKA Monika (PSE) : Investor-State Dispute Settlement in Investment Agreements: Bringing Evidence to Controversy

  Emily Blanchard (Dartmouth Tuck School of Business, CEPR)

  Résumé

  Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) is central feature of the more-than 3,000 international investment agreements in place today. Despite their ubiquity, ISDS provisions are the subject of increasingly heated public debate about national sovereignty, corporate interests, and the limits of international agreements. To what extent are ISDS provisions simply the necessary conditions for mutually beneficial cross-border investments? How, if at all, has the use of these provisions changed over time? While ISDS has received recent attention in the theoretical trade literature (e.g. Kohler and Stähler, 2019; Ossa, Sykes and Staiger, 2020; Schjelderup and Stähler, 2021), remarkably little is known about the use of ISDS provisions in practice. This paper leverages a new, unique ISDS case- and firm-level dataset to present novel stylised facts about the nature and evolution of the ISDS system, multinational firms using it, law firms involved, and the underlying market mechanisms that drive the patterns and prevalence of ISDS cases. Analysis is structured around two key questions. First, to what extent has there been a fundamental change in the prevalence, composition, and underlying nature of ISDS cases? And second, what are the likely drivers of these patterns — specifically, are there discernible changes in “litigation technology” that have changed when, how, and why firms use ISDS provisions in practice?

• Lundi 3 mai 2021 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/92902544804?pwd=NFJlbWo5NUVVd01NUG5tMjQvRS9PUT09

  MUNOZ Mathilde (PSE) : Traded Non Tradables: Offshoring Service Jobs Through Labour Mobility

  Résumé

  This paper investigates how labour mobility policies can allow "non tradable" services to be offshored on-site, exposing new sectors and workers to foreign competition, and raising questions on whether destination or origin labour taxes should apply to these novel flows of workers. To shed light on this issue, I study the largest historical experiment of services exports mobility liberalization in the world: the European posting policy. Within the EU, firms are free to send their workers abroad in order to perform a service, while workers "posted" abroad are exempted from taxes in the destination country. Assembling novel and exhaustive administrative data on this continent-wide experiment, I show that the staggered lifting of posting mobility restrictions increased permanently international service provision by 500% within the EU. Cross-border services supply has also been highly responsive to tax rules applied to posted workers. Combining quasi-experimental tax reforms and a theory-consistent gravity estimation, I show that the elasticity of posting flows with respect to payroll cost differentials created by the scheme lies above 1. I then turn to the unequal distribution of these aggregate mobility-trade effects, both between and within countries. Liberalizing on-site offshoring redistributed economic activity and tax revenue to sending — mostly low-wage — countries, increasing non-tradable employment in sending countries by 17% and taxes paid at home by sending firms by 30%, while employment in exposed sectors in receiving countries decreases by 6%. Using detailed firm-level data, I show that workers' wage rate rise by 10%, while capital-owners increase their profits by 30%, after a firm starts posting workers abroad, implying that services suppliers in formerly non-tradable sectors captured 2/3 of the overall mobility-dependent export premium. I find that these gains however disappear when the posting mission ends, suggesting that non-tradable services sectors exhibit little "learning by exporting".

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 19 avril 2021 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/95547842935?pwd=RXVsU3RIdTdleEUxbkZzVTJqMWd4UT09

  FRANÇOIS Manon (PSE) : Profit Shifting and Destination-Based Taxes

  Résumé

  We study the choice between source-based corporate taxes and destination-based corporate taxes in a two-country model, allowing multinational firms to use transfer pricing to allocate profits across tax jurisdictions. We show that source-based taxation is a Nash equilibrium tax revenue maximizing jurisdictions if both domestic and foreign firms generate large revenues. Otherwise, the equilibrium involves destination-based taxes. We also show that a country has an incentive to unilaterally adopt destination-based taxes if it is much larger than the Foreign country.

• Lundi 22 mars 2021 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/94445869097?pwd=WVgweGJiUStZV0phaW54TGlueEhxUT09

  STIPANICIC Fernando (TSE) : The Diffusion of Knowledge: Evidence from the Jet Age

  Stefan Pauly (Sciences Po)

  Résumé

  This paper studies the impact of travel time on the diffusion of knowledge. We provide causal evidence by exploiting the beginning of the Jet Age as a quasi-natural experiment. We digitize airlines' historical flight schedules and construct a novel data set of the flight network in the United States. Between 1951 and 1966, average travel time between locations more than 2,000km away decreased 49%. We use patent citations as a measure of knowledge diffusion. For research establishments located more than 2,000km away from each other, the reduction in travel time increased citations by 8.1%. The reduction in travel time accounts for more than one third of the observed increase in citations in this distance interval. Additionally, the reduction in travel time increased the diffusion of knowledge through multi-establishment firms. Firms opened research establishments in locations that obtained a relative reduction in travel time to headquarters. Firms carried knowledge across distant establishments and increased its diffusion.

• Lundi 8 mars 2021 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/99575966216?pwd=VmVmb2FZSklHU01SWU5aK3pLODVwdz09

  VANNELLI Giulio (Università degli Studi di Trento, PSE) : Global Value Chains participation and firm boundaries: evidence from French FDI

  Giorgia Giovannetti (Università degli Studi di Firenze, EUI), Gianluca Santoni (CEPII)

  Résumé

  The tremendous development of new technologies during the last decades allowed for an increasing interconnection between countries' economies and firms' activities: both commercial and financial linkages along value chains intensified, and also overlapped. As a consequence, Global Value Chains (GVCs) and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) have dominated the international economics literature as two sides of the same coin. Using French administrative data, this paper studies the relationship between these two topics at the firm level. Trade and investments are found to be complement, with the first increasing the future likelihood of the latter. Using trade in intermediates as a proxy for GVCs participation, I prove that GVCs-related trade drives the effect.

• Lundi 8 février 2021 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/95624662287?pwd=Y25kdFhsTnBPRVhJcmNTSlkzalR4QT09

  OZGUZEL Cem (OECD) : Shooting down trade

  Ugur Aytun (Kutahya University)

  Résumé

  On 24 November 2015, Turkish military shot down a Russian fighter jet near the Syrian-Turkey border after it violated Turkish airspace for about 17 seconds. Russia retaliated by imposing an embargo on 17 agricultural HS-6 level products from Turkey that would be effective for 22 months. We exploit this natural experiment to evaluate the impact of sanctions on Turkish exports and exporters. Using restrictive customs and firm-level data in a triple difference framework, we estimate the effect of these sanctions on the exports towards Russia, for embargoed and non-embargoed products. We estimate a total trade loss of $3.25bn for Turkish exports, 65% of which stemming from non-embargoed products. We investigate the underlying mechanism through firm-level analysis. First, we find that number of firms that trade with Russia and export volumes decreased dramatically. Second, firms re-routed their exports to bordering countries to circumvent the sanctions. Finally, we find that medium and large firms managed to adjust to the crisis while small firms suffered the main effects of the embargo.

• Lundi 25 janvier 2021 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/99471949261?pwd=TW5RRDRrc2xOUXh0UjEzc1pkRy8wQT09

  GUEDIDI Insaf (University of Tunis, ESSECT, DEFI,University of Paris 1) : Trade Facilitation and Participation in Global Value Chains

  Leila Baghdadi (University of Tunis, ESSECT, DEFI, World Trade Organization Chair at University of Tunis) and Inmaculada Martínez Zarzoso (University of Gottingen, University Jaume I)

  Résumé

  This paper investigates the effect of trade facilitation on forward and backward Global Value Chains (GVCs) in manufacturing sectors. We use a two-step gravity model of trade for a cross-section of countries over the period 2004-2015. The main aim is to shed some light on whether the effect of maritime connectivity and border procedures on value-added content of trade differ by region. Results indicate that maritime connectivity matters for trade under GVCs. In particular, exporting intermediate goods is highly encouraged by more efficient maritime routes which connect different participants of GVCs in Africa and Asia. Furthermore, shipping goods without delays, low costs and simpler procedures are key determinants of participation in forward GVCs. Finally, the regional analysis for manufacturing sectors of GVCs helps to discern which regions are more affected by cross-border reforms and reveals that simplifying documentary procedures is important for Africa, Asia and Europe when they import foreign value-added. For instance, less time to import encourages Africa to participate in backward linkages in GVCs and transportation costs matter for Africa when it operates upstream tasks and for Europe when it operates upstream and downstream tasks.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 14 décembre 2020 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93971422235?pwd=eDdyZEJ2SUpsQnByUnR5eUpRMkV5Zz09

  RASTER Tom (PSE) : The Hanseatic League versus its competitors: Evidence from millions of shipments

  Résumé

  Long-distance trade has emerged and expanded throughout history despite abundant obstacles. How trade regimes, such as merchant guilds, were able to operate under such circumstances has attracted attention from scholars of institutions and market imperfections. However, whether merchant guilds were conducive to overall growth or only benefited a few members of society remains disputed; as is their use of formal versus informal rules in their internal functioning (e.g. Greif, 1989; Ogilvie, 2011). To the best of my knowledge, this paper is the first to quantitatively study how the trade of a merchant guild compares to that of their competitors who do not belong to any guild. I focus on the Hanseatic League (1100s-1669), a trade confederation of, at its peak, almost 200 towns in the German Lands and surrounding areas. Newly collected archival data reveals the extent and timing of each town’s participation in the League’s meetings. I combine this information with expansive, novel data of nearly all maritime trade (1.5 million shipments) between the Baltic and North Sea areas from 1497 to 1700. During this crucial period in history, institutions of the First Commercial Revolution gave way to those of the Second, which oversaw the beginning of Atlantic trade. In the empirical analysis, I exploit features of the trade data to distinguish, for each shipment, whether the trade was conducted by the Hanseatic League, more independent Dutch traders, or by another trading regime. I then compare trade across these regimes along various dimensions, such as trade value, prices (volatility), and type of goods (including new luxuries). In doing so, I test various hypotheses raised in the literature, including the relationship between trade regimes and growth. Preliminary findings suggest marked differences across trade regimes and contribute to our understanding of trade institutions, historical and contemporary, that operate in environments where coordination is difficult.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 30 novembre 2020 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/97965760768?pwd=cmNIcE1CK1FBY2FDamV2UmJIUXMzZz09

  Productivity Slowdown and MNEs’ Intangibles: where is productivity measured?

  Jean-Charles Bricongne (Banque de France), Margarita Lopez-Forero (France Stratégie, Dauphine)

  Résumé

  Based on French firm-level data over 15 years we evaluate the contribution of the mi- crolevel profit shifting –through tax haven foreign direct investments (FDI), may it be in or outward- to the aggregate productivity slowdown in France and the role that intangible investments play in this relation. We show that firm productivity in France experiences a decline over the immediate years following the establishment in a tax haven, with an aver- age estimated drop by 3.5% in labor productivity. We argue that this productivity decline, following a presence in a tax haven, is most likely explained by MNEs’ fiscal optimization, where domestic productivity is underestimated as profits are not recorded anymore in the home country. The fall in productivity is especially strong for firms that are intensive in intangible capital and is equivalent to 4.1% (versus 2.7% for low intangible intensive firms), reflecting the fact that these type of assets are more easily transferred across countries and facilitate fiscal optimization. Our results additionally suggest that the mismeasurement has strong dynamic effects, as the decline becomes more important the longer the firm remains in a tax haven. Due to possible attenuation biases, we argue that our estimates provide a lower bound of the productivity mismeasurement. Finally, given these firms’ weight in the economy, our results imply an 8% loss at the aggregate in terms of the level of the labor productivity throughout the whole sample period, which is equivalent to an annual loss of 9.5% in terms of the aggregate annual labor productivity growth.

• Lundi 16 novembre 2020 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/92734307077?pwd=dHNLZXVtODJzbVVheURuc1d1UWxkQT09

  KÖGEL Clara (Paris 1, OECD) : Keeping up with the frontier: The effects of financial frictions and intangible capital on technology diffusion

  Flavio Calvino (OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation), Rudy Verlhac (OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation)

  Résumé

  Using cross-country data firm-level panel data for 17 OECD countries from 2000 to 2015, this paper explores the effect of finance and intangible assets on the productivity gap and the technology diffusion. It argues that investment in intangibles are closely linked to technology diffusion, but that due to their specific characteristics, such as valuation uncertainty and lower pledgeability, financing the purchase of intangible assets is more difficult than that of tangible assets. The analysis relies on a dynamic panel approach, including firm level measures of technology diffusion, financial frictions, and intangible capital. We find that both financial frictions and intangible capital affect the productivity gap to the technology frontier. We also provide evidence that financial frictions hinder technology diffusion, particularly in financially dependent sectors and through the channel of investments in intangible assets. This sheds light for a possible mechanism of the slowdown in technology diffusion, experienced by many advanced economies.

• Lundi 2 novembre 2020 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/98263373635?pwd=QlduZzA3ZFdwbU5sMC90emJXOFRJUT09

  ASSEM Hoda (PSE) : How Political Tensions Impact Trade: Evidence from Egypt

  Résumé

  This paper explores the impact of low-intensity political conflicts on trade relations. In particular, I study the impact of political tensions based on United Nations voting data on Egyptian imports. Additionally, I explore specific channels through which political disputes may impact trade flows, particularly trade with state-owned firms (SOEs) and politically connected firms. For this purpose, a sectoral gravity model is estimated using customs data on Egyptian imports from 2005-2015, UNGA voting data to measure political tensions as well as sectoral data on state-owned and politically connected firms in Egypt. Results show that indeed political tensions have a significant negative impact on imports to Egypt. This impact is particularly significant for developing, non-EU and middle income countries as well as non-democracies. The negative impact of political tensions on Egyptian imports seems to come mainly from politically connected firms in the manufacturing sector, and from state-owned firms in the non-manufacturing sector where SOEs are larger and more productive.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 19 octobre 2020 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/97838602106?pwd=SGtZS2ZnOUd2M1FxTlNtSGIxRHd3UT09

  LONDON Melina (AMSE) : Cross-Sector Interactions in Western Europe: Lessons From Trade Credit Data

  Résumé

  Both the ongoing US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic have induced supply-chain disruptions. They have shown the importance of international cross-sector connections in disseminating distress. Yet, little is known about how those connections relate to trade credit. To fill the gap, this study investigates how firms' trade credit payments interact across sectors and the relation of these interactions with already documented production links. To do so, it uses an original database from one of the top three credit insurers in the world. It measures payment behavior in each sector using data on defaults on trade credit between 2007 and 2019. Data are collected for sectors in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Using a two-step high-dimensional method, this article identifies Granger causalities across sectors. Results highlight the existence of predictive relationships between sectors' payment behavior on trade credits. A few sectors – among which construction, wholesale and retail, and motor vehicles – tend to display a wider set of predictive relationships towards other sectors than the average. The existence of these relationships, as well as their magnitude, is positively and significantly related to intermediate good owing from one sector to the other. Such result is consistent with sector-level shock propagation patterns working through production links such as highlighted in the production network literature.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 5 octobre 2020 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/99631640491?pwd=WlpUZXJhNHdHNm42cHBMQXJvTEhPQT09

  BOCQUET Leonard (PSE) : Inefficient Market Selection: The Role of Uncertainty and Credit Frictions

  Résumé

  According to Schumpeterian theory, recessions should have a cleansing effect on the economy: low productive firms are pushed to exit while high productive firms manage to survive, thereby increasing average productivity. However, new empirical evidence reports that highly productive firms default too during downturns, hence implying that market selection is not efficient during recessions (Guerini et al. 2020). What causes market selection to become inefficient? In this paper, we argue that Schumpeterian theory confuses productivity and profitability. Any mechanism weakening the correlation between the former and the latter worsens the quality of market selection. Here, we propose a model of heterogeneous firms with an endogenous exit margin, incorporating two of such mechanisms. First, uncertainty generates a potential discrepancy between the sales and the costs: high productive firms which failed to anticipate correctly their level of sales can make very low profits. Second, financial frictions lead unproductive firms to be more credit constrained, hence preventing them to take too much risk and reducing their risk of default. Finally, we show that the distribution of leverage is a sufficient statistic for assessing whether recessions are cleansing or not.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 21 septembre 2020 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93616552456?pwd=RUFic0gzT2lGSnl2QWNtbmUrcEE5dz09

  PATAULT Bérengère (CREST/Ecole Polytechnique) : How valuable are business networks? Evidence from salesmen in international markets

  Clémence Lenoir (INSEE)

  Résumé

  How to gain new buyers and expand one’s business? This paper provides a very simple an- swer to this question: by hiring salesmen. Combining French firm-to-firm trade data with a detailed occupational dataset, we offer new empirical evidence that salesmen play a role for the construction of a firm’s portfolio of foreign buyers. We then characterize a specific channel explaining such a role: using an event-study design, we show that a poached salesman brings on average 0.14 buyers of her former firm’s buyers to her new firm. Additional results indicate that country and sectoral knowledge can only explain a small fraction of this effect, which suggests that salesmen accumulate buyer-specific knowledge when working for exporting firms, knowl- edge that they transmit when poached. Finally, we quantify, building on a simple theoretical framework, the importance of business network transmission to understand salesmen’s role in buyer acquisition. We find that, on average for a salesman, having interacted with a buyer in the past multiplies the probability to sell to this buyer in the future by 9 times.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 22 juin 2020 13:00-14:00

  https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/98159672731?pwd=ZitmQm5qekg4dWZub0pudWdoQXo0QT09

  FIZE Etienne (CAE) : Macroeconomic imbalances and the rise of protectionism

  Samuel Delpeuch (SciencesPo) and Philippe Martin (CEPR, SciencesPo, CAE)

  Résumé

  We analyze the macroeconomic determinants of the rise of protectionism in the past 10 years focusing on bilateral trade imbalances. If politicians launch protectionist attacks based on expected net employment gains then the bilateral trade balance is an approximate measure predicting which countries will be attacked. The reason is that it balances the gains from protecting employment from foreign imports and losses from retaliation on exports. We show empirically that bilateral trade imbalances are robust predictors of protectionist attacks based on the Global Trade Alert database. Retaliation to past attacks, the bilateral exchange rate and current account imbalances are also good predictors of protectionist attacks.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 8 juin 2020 13:00-14:00

  Join Zoom Meeting: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/92350573618?pwd=N0lvdlJETG1zR295MGg0NzB6NlAzZz09 Meeting ID: 923 5057 3618 Password: 986325

  ALVAREZ Bastien (CEPS, ENS) : European Integration and the Trade-off between Offshoring and Immigration

  Enxhi Tresa (THEMA, CY Cergy Paris Université)

  Résumé

  This paper investigates the link between East-West migration flows in Europe and global value chains (GVCs) after the 2004 European enlargement. We combine data from the European Labor Force Survey with the World Input-Output Database to provide evidence of substitution between employing immigrant workers and production offshoring in Europe after the EU enlargement of 2004. Our identification relies on the staggering of the opening of Western Europe labour markets to Eastern Europeans workers and on an instrumental variable, hence tackling potential endogeneity in the trade-migration relationship. We find that Western European sectors with larger post-liberalization migration shocks import less intermediate goods from Eastern Europe. This effect mostly concerns the immigration of low skilled workers. We explain that once the movement of labor restrictions were removed, it became relatively easier than before for firms to import workers rather than goods. This resulted in an increased presence of low occupation Eastern European workers in Western Europe and lower offshoring, ceteris paribus. This work is, to our knowledge, the first to provide evidence regarding the effect of the removal of freedom of movement restrictions in Europe on global value chains. We also to contribute to the literature by looking at the trade-migration relationship at the sector and occupation level.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 2 mars 2020 13:00-14:00

  MSE, room 019

  COTTERLAZ-CARRAZ Pierre (CEPII & Sciences Po (Department of Economics)) : Information in the First Globalization: News Agencies and Trade

  Etienne Fize (Science Po & CAE)

  Résumé

  This paper documents the effect of information frictions on trade using a historical large-scale improvement in the transmission of news: the emergence of global news agencies. The information available to potential traders became more abundant, was delivered faster and at a cheaper price between countries covered by a news agency. By exploiting differences in the timing of telegraph openings and news agency coverage across pairs of countries, we are able to disentangle the pure effect of information from the effect of a reduction in communication costs. Panel gravity estimates reveal that bilateral trade increased by 30 % more for pairs of countries covered by a news agency and connected by a telegraph than for pairs of countries simply connected by a telegraph.

• Lundi 3 février 2020 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle 019) 75013 Paris

  MARSHALIAN Michelle (DIAL, Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne, Dauphine) : Trade, Tariffs and Missing Imports: Using trade liberalization to understand business-state relations in Egypt

  Résumé

  Over the past half a century, Egypt developed from a statist economy, with strong business-state relations, to a more liberal open-market economy as it slowly began opening up to international markets. Its entry into international markets came alongside several exogenous changes to trade policy. Exploiting a change in trade reform policies that aligned administrative, tariff and non-tariff barriers to international standards, I use a differences-in-differences method to measure the impact of trade liberalization reforms on import values, between industries where connected firms are known to exist, and those were no known connection exists. The outcomes show that the reduction of trade barriers associated with the reform, improved the inflow of imported goods to non-connected industries more than connected industries, suggesting a corrective impact of administrative simplification on the competitiveness between industries. I tested different explanations for the treatment outcomes and found evidence of tax evasion as an important strategy for firms in connected industries. When checking for heterogeneities by technological complexity of industrial output, the reform benefited non-connected industries more than connected industries, except for in natural resources and medium level manufacturing activities.

• Lundi 9 décembre 2019 13:00-14:00

  IODICE Irène (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna - Paris 1 - EMbeDS) : The Sound of Silence. Nontransparent technical requirements as obstacles to trade

  Résumé

  Exporters mostly encounter trade obstacles due to unclear procedures to comply with foreign regulations, while the implementation itself is less of a burden. In this work we investigate the protective nature of newly introduced regulations that are not properly disclosed at the international level. We begin by building a novel database which identifies the process of adoption of those Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) that have been contested to the WTO through a Specific Trade Concern (STC). We then cross-reference this database with a firm-level panel of French exporters and we carry out an event study. We find that in more than 1/3 of the studied cases countries have adopted the underlying regulations without previously announcing the change to other members. Only in these cases, the newly introduced regulation hampers the exporting activity of firms by reducing firms’ trade value. This effect is however temporary, ranging from one to two semesters, and it lasts less if the content of the TBT is eventually disclosed by governments. Finally, only those exporters who are relatively new to the destination market are hit by these unexpected changes. This evidence suggests that, by rising procedural obstacles, countries can effectively deploy regulations that hinders imports.

• Lundi 25 novembre 2019 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle 116) 75013 Paris

  REVERDY Camille (University of Paris 1 ) : Estimating the General Equilibrium Effects of Services Trade Liberalization

  Résumé

  The intangible nature of services and the lack of disaggregated trade data enlarge the difficulties involved in assessing impediments to cross-border trade in services. In an attempt to reduce the information gap existing in services trade, this paper estimates the conditional and general equilibrium responses to the liberalization of services trade, using a three step estimation method relying on structural gravity model. Focusing on eight services sectors: construction, land transport, maritime transport, air transport, logistics services, telecommunication services, financial services and professional services, I find that the removal of restrictive policy measures applied by the importing country would lead to welfare gains between $10\%$ and $31\%$. The largest welfare improvements are found for the sector `Air Transport', the most restrictive sector on average, and for the smallest trading countries.

• Lundi 14 octobre 2019 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle 116) 75013 Paris

  LEQUIEN Matthieu (Banque de France-PSE-Insee) : The Heterogeneous Impact of Market Size on Innovation: Evidence from French Firm-Level Exports

  Philippe Aghion (College de France-LSE), Antonin Bergeaud (Banque de France-PSE) and Marc Melitz (Harvard)

  Résumé

  We analyze how demand conditions faced by a firm impacts its innovation decisions. To disentangle the direction of causality between innovation and demand conditions, we construct a firm-level export demand shock which responds to aggregate conditions in a firm's export destinations but is exogenous to firm-level decisions. Using exhaustive data covering the French manufacturing sector, we show that French firms respond to exogenous growth shocks in their export destinations by patenting more; and that this response is entirely driven by the subset of initially more productive firms. The patent response arises 3 to 5 years after a demand shock, highlighting the time required to innovate. In contrast, the demand shock raises contemporaneous sales and employment for all firms, without any notable differences between high and low productivity firms. We show that this finding of a skewed innovation response to common demand shocks arises naturally from a model of endogenous innovation and competition with firm heterogeneity. The market size increase drives all firms to innovate more by increasing the innovation rents; yet by inducing more entry and thus more competition, it also discourages innovation by low productivity firms.

• Lundi 30 septembre 2019 13:00-14:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 116

  EL MALLAKH Nevine (Paris 1) : The impact of public research institutions on Innovation

  Nevine El-Mallakh (Paris 1), Caroline Paunov (OECD) and Martin Borowiecki (OECD)

  Résumé

  The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of research institutions on innovation creation in the manufacturing sector. We find evidence on the existence of positive effects of exposure to Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and Public Research Institutes (PRIs) on patenting activities of 36 OECD countries and China for the period 1992-2014. The evidence, which is obtained from a newly compiled database at postal code level, reveals that geographical proximity to universities is associated with more industry patenting, after controlling for differences across postal codes and country-year shocks. The results also hold when exploiting an instrumental variable approach to alleviate possible endogeneity of university location. The latter can be traced back to historical mines and public spending in R&D conducted by research institutions, which would have little direct connection to industry patenting at postal code level. We also explore possible heterogeneity of these effects and our results suggest that universities positively influence the patenting activities of local industry, especially in life and digital technologies.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 17 juin 2019 13:00-14:00

  Campus Jourdan

  SZTAJEROWSKA Monika (PSE) : *

• Lundi 3 juin 2019 13:00-14:00

  Campus MSE - Room 19

  TABARKI Badis (Université Paris 1 - PSE) : *

• Lundi 20 mai 2019 13:00-14:00

  La séance a été annulée.

  Campus MSE - Room 19

  LAENGLE Katharina (Université Paris 1 - PSE) : *

• Lundi 8 avril 2019 13:00-14:00

  Campus MSE - Room 19

  PANON Ludovic (Sciences Po) : *

• Lundi 25 mars 2019 13:00-14:00

  Campus MSE - Room 19

  EL MALLAKH Nevine (Paris 1) : The effect of FDI liberalization on manufacturing firms’ technology upgrading

  Maria Bas

• Lundi 11 mars 2019 13:00-14:00

  KOENIG Pamina (PSE) : *

• Lundi 11 février 2019 13:00-14:00

  MAYDA Anna Maria (Georgetown University) : *

• Lundi 28 janvier 2019 13:00-14:00

  ALVAREZ Bastien (CEPS, ENS) : *

• Lundi 14 janvier 2019 13:00-14:00

  TRESA Enxhi (Université Cergy-Pontoise) : Public Procurement-Related protection: Insights from the Global Trade Alert Database

  Anne-Célia Disdier, Lionel Fontagné

• Lundi 26 novembre 2018 13:00-14:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 116

  BENASSY-QUERE Agnès (Paris 1 - PSE) : Taxing capital and labor when both factors are imperfectly mobile internationally

  Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE), Amélie Schurich-Rey

• Lundi 22 octobre 2018 13:00-14:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle S/19

  TRESA Enxhi (Université Cergy-Pontoise) : *

• Lundi 15 octobre 2018 13:00-14:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 114

  TABARKI Badis (Université Paris 1 - PSE) : *

• Lundi 1er octobre 2018 13:00-14:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle S/2

  ASSEM Hoda (PSE) : *

• Lundi 17 septembre 2018 13:00-14:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle S/2

  WIBAUX Pauline (Paris 1 - PSE) : Trade Retaliation

  Davide Furceri (IMF), Chris Papageorgiou (IMF)

• Lundi 4 juin 2018 13:00-14:00

  Salle R2-20, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  VOLPE Christian (Inter-American Development Bank) : Information and Exports: Firm-Level Evidence from an Online Platform

  Résumé

  Lack of information is an important trade barrier. Online platforms connecting firms can reduce this barrier and thereby affect firms’ exports. We examine whether this is the case by focusing on a free online business platform that, by the end of 2016, connected more than 16,000 firms from almost a hundred countries. In particular, we estimate the impact of using the platform on firms’ export outcomes, along both the intensive and extensive margins, exploiting data on firms’ participation in this platform along with customs data from Peru for the period 2010-2016. In so doing, we apply an instrumental variables approach whereby firms’ use of the business platform is instrumented with information on the distribution of emails announcing its launching by Peru’s national trade promotion organization. Consistent with the interpretation of the platform as an information cost-reducing mechanism, our results suggest that its utilization allowed firms to expand their exports by primarily increasing the number of products they sell abroad and enlarging their buyer base.

• Lundi 9 avril 2018 13:00-14:00

  Room S19 MSE, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  HASANNUDIN ZENATHAN (Paris 1 ) : *

• Lundi 26 mars 2018 13:00-14:00

  Room S19 MSE, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  LIGONNIERE Samuel (ENS Paris Saclay) : Fisherian Deflation and Debt Maturity

  Résumé

  How does debt maturity structure affect Fisherian deflation? By introducing debt maturity in a Fisherian deflation model, I demonstrate how it could trigger financial crises. Using a stock-flow analysis, I show that long-term debt could alleviate the risk of current binding collateral constraint, but an excessive reliance could generate future binding collateral constraints over long horizons. It is empirically confirmed by a study based on 122 developing countries over the period 1970-2012. I highlight that debt maturity structure is a good early-warning indicator of Fisherian deflation, which provides information that adds up to the level of external debt.

• Lundi 12 mars 2018 13:00-14:00

  Room S19 MSE, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  *

• Lundi 12 février 2018 13:00-14:00

  Room S19 MSE, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  REVERDY Camille (University of Paris 1 ) : The Export Potential of Services

  Yvan Decreux and Julia Spies

• Lundi 29 janvier 2018 13:00-14:00

  Room S3 MSE, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  LEYVA Jaime (Paris 1, PSE) : International Banking Flows, The Global Financial Cycle and Local Developments

  Résumé

  The Global Financial Cycle has received a big attention in the last years. Many works have found a significant and negative mean effect of some Global Financial Cycle proxies such as the VIX in risky asset prices, capital flows and leverage across different countries. This paper tries to assess the importance of the Global Financial Cycle in explaining international banking flows conditioning on the heterogeneous response of local variables to global shocks. We use the correlated part of local stock market volatility with the US stock market volatility to quantify the heterogeneous local response to global high uncertainty periods and then we test the explanatory power of the country-specific response to global shocks in a panel of international banking flows to Small Open Economies. Our results seem to asses that there is an active coordination behaviour of the Global Banking system to more exposed countries under high uncertainty periods, and taking into account the heterogeneous responses in stock markets outperforms the explanatory power of a common Global proxy of volatility. Finally, we develop a Small Open Economy DSGE model in which we analyse the impact of international interest rate shocks under different degrees of financial frictions in the local banking system to explain the heterogeneous response of local economic variables and capital flows under a global shock.

• Lundi 15 janvier 2018 13:00-14:00

  Room R1-15, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  HERGHELEGIU Cristina (Paris 1, PSE) : Firm adjustment to customs-driven administrative barriers

  Résumé

  This paper analyzes how firms adjust to administrative barriers. Relying on a highly detailed dataset including the universe of Russian transactions over the period 2012-2015, we seek to identify the impact of customs-specific time delays on exports flows. We focus on firm-to-firm trade and show that the time delays induced by customs clearance negatively affect firm-to-firm exports, even after controlling for other potentially confounding factors. We further explore the role of Incoterms used as a tool to delimit the risks between the exporting and importing firms throughout the shipping process. Our results show that export flows are significantly higher when exporters take full control over export clearance.

• Lundi 11 décembre 2017 13:00-14:00

  Room S3 MSE, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  PANON Ludovic (Sciences Po) : The Cost of Not Getting Along: Interstate Tensions and International Trade

  Florin Cucu (Sciences Po)

  Résumé

  In this article, we provide evidence of the impact of interstate tensions on international trade. Using a large panel data set on asylum applications in the EU from 2002 to 2015, we develop a novel measure of interstate tensions based on refugee admission rates. Humanitarian conditions in the origin country explain little of the variation in approval rates, asylum policies being often used by governments as a foreign policy tool. Specifically, countries are more likely to accept refugees from rival countries. We then study the impact of this measure on trade flows between the EU and the rest of the world. We find that a one percentage point increase in our asylum policy based measure leads to a drop in trade ranging from 1% to 4%. Taking into account endogeneity concerns, we also exploit the variation in asylum policy across European countries as an instrumental variable and find that a change of 1 percentage point in our measure entails a drop in trade flows of 1% to 4% from one year to the next.

• Lundi 13 novembre 2017 13:00-14:00

  Room S3 MSE, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  COTTERLAZ Pierre (Sciences Po) : The Percolation of Knowledge across Space

  Arthur Guillouzouic Le Corff (Sciences Po)

  Résumé

  This paper provides an explanation for the persistent spatial frictions in knowledge diffusion. We argue that the underlying spatially-clustered network of innovators contributes to generating the effect attributed to distance on international knowledge flows. First, we present evidence that knowledge disseminates within a network of firms by delving into their citation behaviour. We find that firms are more likely to cite patents known by their contacts than comparable patents unknown by their contacts. We then incorporate this finding into a dynamic network formation model. The theoretical predictions hold remarkably well in the data: innovator sizes are Pareto distributed, and an increasing relationship exists between the size of an innovator and the distance at which it cites. Combining these two features is sufficient to generate a negative distance elasticity of knowledge flows.

• Lundi 16 octobre 2017 13:00-14:00

  Salle S/3, MSE, 106 boulevard de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  EL MALLAKH Nevine (Paris 1) : Disentangling channels of FDI spillover: Evidence from India

  Résumé

  Governments spend large amounts of resources in order to attract multinational companies to their country, based on their belief that such companies generate positive spillovers to domestic firms. Although the existence of positive externalities correlated to FDI presence has been proved for the US, concerns on the significance of these effects for developing countries were raised. Also the literature has not provided empirical evidence on the validity of the channels leading to these effects. For these reasons, this paper exploits FDI reforms and Trade liberalization episodes in India in the early 1990’s to disentangle channels of FDI spillover on productivity of domestic firms; namely, the technical know-how and the foreign competition channels. Using firm level data on the period (1989-1997), we are able to identify the two main channels. Results confirm positive technological spillover through imported inputs as well as positive foreign competition. Findings also suggest that these channels are stronger for industries that are relatively more capital intensive and medium sized firms.

• Lundi 2 octobre 2017 13:00-14:00

  Salle S/3, MSE, 106 boulevard de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  LAENGLE Katharina (Université Paris 1 - PSE) : Global value chains and labor market adjustments

  Résumé

  The question how offshoring affects domestic workers has been subject to empirical studies for decades. Many analyses based their work on traditional trade data as a proxy for offshoring. However, these statistics fall short in depicting intertwinings of supply chains and how foreign production factors enter domestic production. For that reason, this paper quantifies offshoring in terms of value added thus allowing to trace back how much foreign capital and labor enter domestic production. Using data from the WIOD, effects are analyzed for 14 sectors in 16 countries between 1995 and 2008. Regarding low skilled workers, results confirm implications of the model by Grossman & Rossi-Hansberg (2008). Accordingly, offshoring proved to positively influence domestic low skilled workers’ wage shares, when their tasks were moved abroad. Yet, model assumptions and the empirical setup of this paper diverge thus question the mechanisms highlighted by GRH. Importantly, the growing share of foreign capital in production negatively affects low skilled workers' wage share while positively influencing that of high skilled. Consequently, findings suggest that offshoring benefits high skilled workers and harms low skilled.

• Lundi 25 septembre 2017 13:00-14:00

  Salle S/3, MSE, 106 boulevard de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  KAZAKOVA Ekaterina (Mannheim) : Export Platforms and Multinational Demand Risk Diversification

  Résumé

  This paper analyzes the effects of correlated aggregate demand shocks on multinational firms’ structure. Accordingly, we build a structural model featuring global production and demand risk in which heterogeneously risk averse managers decide on the location of production plants, the set of countries to serve from these plants, and the volume of sales. These decisions hinge on the expected market demand, and the variance-covariance of the demand shocks in destination markets. The identification of firm-specific risk aversion coefficients follows from existence and uniqueness of the firm’s optimal sales portfolio. The empirical analysis uses firm-level data on German multinational companies. Our results support the existence of MNE’s diversification strategies when producing and selling abroad.

• Lundi 19 juin 2017 13:00-14:00

  Salle S/19, MSE, 106 boulevard de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris

  IODICE Irène (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna - Paris 1 - EMbeDS) : *

• Lundi 22 mai 2017 13:00-14:00

  Salle S/19, MSE, 106 boulevard de l'hôpital, 75013 Paris

  WIBAUX Pauline (Paris 1 - PSE) : *

• Lundi 24 avril 2017 13:00-14:00

  Salle S/19, MSE, 106 boulevard de l'hôpital, 75013 Paris

  OURENS Guzman (FNRS and IRES -Université catholique de Louvain) : *

• Lundi 27 mars 2017 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S/19) 75013 Paris

  OZGUZEL Cem (OECD) : Learn and Return: Learn and Return: Productive Knowledge Diffusion through Migrant Workers

• Lundi 13 mars 2017 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S/19) 75013 Paris

  GIGOUT Timothée (Banque de France) : *

• Lundi 27 février 2017 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S/19) 75013 Paris

  HERGHELEGIU Cristina (ENS-PSE) : *

• Lundi 13 février 2017 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S/19) 75013 Paris

  CLAVERES Guillaume (Paris 1-PSE) : European unemployment insurance

• Lundi 30 janvier 2017 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S/19) 75013 Paris

  PITON Sophie (PSE) : Economic Integration and the Non-tradable Sector: The European Experience

  Résumé

  Abstract:
  This article shows that not only market integration but also financial and monetary integration can affect the dynamics of the non-tradable sector. And if the non-tradable sector expands relative to the tradable sector, economic integration can lead to a transitory accumulation of current account deficits. Adapting a model of structural change for a small open economy with a tradable and a non-tradable sector, this paper shows that market and financial integration lead to a relative price increase which can result in a relative expansion of the non-tradable sector. Financial integration also fosters a temporary demand boom in peripheral economies, leading to an expansion of the non-tradable sector and an accumulation of current account deficits. Using a novel data set for 16 countries of the Euro area, this article documents the expansion of the non-tradable sector over 1996-2007 in the Euro area periphery --significant even when excluding the housing sector from the sample. This expansion happened simultaneoulsy to (i) faster productivity growth in the tradable sector than in the non-tradable sector (ii) declining long-term nominal interest rates. In Greece, the fall in the interest rate over 1996-2007 explains up to 13% of the expansion of the non-tradable sector, and together with the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) effect, these effects account up to 80% of its variations.

• Lundi 5 décembre 2016 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S115) 75013 Paris

  LEBASTARD Laura (Paris Sud - Paris Saclay) : *

• Lundi 21 novembre 2016 13:00-14:00

  MSE (106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S115) 75013 Paris

  SANDOZ Charlotte (Banque de France) : Firm Variable Trade Costs, Aggregate Productivity Growth and Misallocation

  Résumé

  Productivity growth is depressed in many developed countries since the end of 2000s. Literature has shown that market frictions reduce aggregate productivity growth by generating resource misallocation. However few studies have introduced traded intermediate inputs in these frameworks. International trade costs considerably decreased in the beginning of 2000s, but only some active firms in the international markets benefit from it. I provide new evidence that traded intermediate inputs generate TFP dispersion without creating misallocation. I estimate a structural model using a comprehensive dataset of French firms in manufacturing industries. I then implement a TFP decomposition to quantify the contribution of allocative efficiency in France between 1999 and 2010. I find that the misallocation slowdown contributes positively to the aggregate productivity growth between 2001 and 2006.

• Lundi 7 novembre 2016 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S115) 75013 Paris

  SANDOZ Charlotte (Banque de France) : *

• Lundi 24 octobre 2016 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S115) 75013 Paris

  ADNIN Zenathan (cnrs) : *

• Lundi 10 octobre 2016 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S115) 75013 Paris

  CLAVERES Guillaume (Paris 1-PSE) : *

• Lundi 26 septembre 2016 13:00-14:00

  MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle S115) 75013 Paris

  PARENTI Mathieu (Université Libre de Bruxelles ) : *

• Lundi 30 novembre 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S18

  HINZ Julian : *

• Lundi 16 novembre 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S18

  MONASTYRENKO Evgenii (Paris 1 - PSE) : Cross-border M&As and eco-environmental performance of European energy utilities

• Lundi 2 novembre 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S18

  LOPEZ FORERO Margarita (Paris 1/PSE) : *

• Lundi 19 octobre 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S18

  SANDOZ (BRAGARD) Charlotte (Paris 1/PSE) : *

• Lundi 12 octobre 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S18

  STEMMER Michael A. (Paris 1) : *

• Lundi 5 octobre 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S18

  RAY Anna (Sciences Po/Paris 1) : *

• Lundi 14 septembre 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S18

  WORACK Stephan (Paris 1) : The Changing Nature of Chinese R&D and Technological Collaboration: Evidence from European Patent Data

• Lundi 23 février 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  STREINGRESS Walter (Banque de France / Université de Montréal) : TBA

• Lundi 9 février 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  RAY Anna (PSE / Sciences Po) : TBA

• Lundi 12 janvier 2015 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  DUSSAUX Damien (CERNA / MINES ParisTech) : TBA

• Lundi 15 décembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S17

  PITON Sophie (PSE) : TBA

• Lundi 1er décembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S17

  BEESTERMOELLER Matthias (Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich) : A Dissection of Trading Capital: Cultural persistence of trade in the aftermath of the fall of the Iron Curtain

  Résumé

  We show that the countries of the former Austro-Hungarian monarchy trade significantly more with one another in the aftermath of the collapse of the Iron Curtain than predicted by a standard gravity model. This trade surplus declines linearly and monotonically over time. We argue that these findings suggest that decaying cultural forces explain a significant part of trading capital. We document the rate of decay of these cultural forces.

• Lundi 24 novembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S17

  AUBRY Amandine (IRES-Université Catholique de Louvain) : Migration, FDI and the Margins of Trade

• Lundi 17 novembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S17

  NUNEZ Thais (Paris School of Economics / Paris 1) : International Waste Trade: The Impact of European Regulation on World Trade

• Lundi 10 novembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  GRUJOVIC Anja (University of Geneva) : Trade and long term unemployment: A quantitative assessment

  Co-author(s) Céline Carrère and Frédéric Robert-Nicoud

  Résumé

  We develop a multi-country, multi-sector, trade gravity model with labour market frictions and long-term equilibrium unemployment. We find that trade liberalisation may lead to a rise in unemployment if it results in labour reallocation towards sectors with higher-than-average labour market frictions. We calibrate the model using panel trade data and estimated sector-specific labour market frictions to quantify the employment and welfare effects of the potential Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on OECD countries.

• Lundi 6 octobre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  PEDRONO Justine (Aix Marseille School of Economics) : Banking leverage with two funding currencies

• Lundi 6 octobre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  PEDRONO Justine (Aix Marseille School of Economics) : Banking leverage with two funding currencies

• Lundi 29 septembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  XU Meina (PSE) : Intermediaries and quality sorting in China

• Lundi 29 septembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  XU Meina (PSE) : Intermediaries and quality sorting in China

• Lundi 22 septembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  RAY Anna (Paris School of Economics / Sciences Po) : The Anatomy of Foreign Direct Investment — World Greenfield and Merger & Acquisition Flows

• Lundi 22 septembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  RAY Anna (Paris School of Economics / Sciences Po) : The Anatomy of Foreign Direct Investment — World Greenfield and Merger & Acquisition Flows

• Lundi 8 septembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  HINZ Julian (PSE) : Time-variant distances in the gravity model: the view from space

• Lundi 8 septembre 2014 12:00-13:00

  HINZ Julian (PSE) : Time-variant distances in the gravity model: the view from space

• Lundi 30 juin 2014 12:00-13:00

  HAIDAR Jamal Ibrahim (PSE) : Sanctions and Trade Deflection

• Lundi 19 mai 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  NEDONCELLE Clément (EQUIPPE - Université de Lille) : Real Exchange-Rate Volatility, Third Market Effect and Trade: Evidence from French Firm-level Data

  Co-author(s) : Jérôme Héricourt (EQUIPPE - Université de Lille, CEPII, Paris 1)

  Résumé

  In this paper, we study how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigate the way this effect is shaped by firm size and the number of destinations. Taking into account third-market effects, we distinguish bilateral volatility from multilateral volatility - the latter capturing volatilities with respect to other destination countries served by the firm. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for French exporters over the 1995-2006 period. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of bilateral RER volatility on both intensive and extensive margins of trade, and we also provide evidence for strong third-market effects : bilateral exports and entry probability increase with RER volatility of other destinations. Finally, we find that both the number of destinations and firm size magnify the effect of both volatilities. These results provide micro-founded evidence suggesting that firms face a trade-off between hedging and optimal reallocation of exports, depending mainly on the number of destinations they serve

• Lundi 7 avril 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  RAY Anna (PSE) : Expanding Multinationals - Industry Relatedness and Conglomerate M&A

• Lundi 24 mars 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S2

  HATTE Sophie (Université de Rouen - PSE) : It's not Who You Are, it's Who You Know: Political Connections and the Media Capture

  Résumé

  Are independent media captured in democratic countries? I address this question by looking at the news coverage of a sample of US firms between 2002 and 2010. More precisely, I focus on news about environmental, social or human rights practices of these firms. Such news are mainly covered by advocacy Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). These advocacy groups vary widely in their sources of revenue. Notably, some of them receive government grants, which are likely to present a chance for governments to capture these NGOs. Using a unique data set of news posted on NGOs’ websites, I find that advocacy groups receiving grants from the US government cover less firms that have connections with the US Congress. Exploiting exogenous variations in grants allocation, instrumental variable estimators report a media capture that is statistically and economically, significant, and driven by political connections.

• Lundi 24 février 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  EDO Anthony (Paris School of Economics - Paris 1) : Minimum Wage and the Labor Market Effects of Migration: Evidence from France

  Co-author(s)Farid Toubal (ENS, PSE, CESifo, CEPII).

  Résumé

  This paper provides direct evidence of the important role played by the minimum wage in shaping the labor market effects of immigration on native outcomes. We based our analysis on France, a country characterized by a high minimum wage, and we study the impact of immigration along the distribution of native wages over the last two decades. Whereas immigration has a negative average impact on the wages of competing natives by around 1%, we find heterogeneous effects over the French wage distribution. In accordance with the prevalence of a high minimum wage, a labor supply shock induced by immigration has no significant effect on the earnings of natives below the 10th percentile. Instead, we show that immigration decreases the employment opportunity of the natives who are affected by the minimum wages.

• Lundi 10 février 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S19

  BARROWS Geoffrey (UC Berkeley, ARE) : Exporting and the environment: evidence from the end of the multi-fibre agreement

  Co-author(s) : Helene Ollivier (PSE - Paris 1)

• Lundi 20 janvier 2014 12:00-13:00

  MSE Room S2

  BOUALAM Brahim (Université de Génève) : Getting a first job: quality of the labor matching in French cities

• Lundi 9 décembre 2013 12:00-13:00

  MSE - 106-112, boulevard d'Hôpital - 75013 Paris ; Room S2

  HINZ Julian (Paris School of Economics - Paris 1) : The ties that bind: Geopolitical motivation for PTAs

• Lundi 25 novembre 2013 12:00-13:00

  MSE - 106-112, boulevard d'Hôpital - 75013 Paris ; Room S3

  NGUYEN Duy-Manh (Paris School of Economics - Paris 1) : TBA

• Lundi 28 octobre 2013 12:00-13:00

  MSE - 106-112, boulevard d'Hôpital - 75013 Paris ; Room S3

  HATTE Sophie (Université de Rouen, PSE) : News Coverage Distortion by the U.S. Government

• Lundi 14 octobre 2013 12:00-13:00

  MSE - 106-112, boulevard d'Hôpital - 75013 Paris ; Room S3

  BALLER Silja (University of Oxford) : Does Product Quality Matter or Gains from Trade? Theory and Evidence

• Lundi 30 septembre 2013 12:00-13:00

  MSE - 106-112, boulevard d'Hôpital - 75013 Paris ; Room S3

  LANATI Mauro : TBA

• Lundi 16 septembre 2013 12:00-13:00

  MSE - 106-112, boulevard d'Hôpital - 75013 Paris ; Room S3

  MILET Emmanuel (Paris School of Economics - Paris 1) : White-collar blues? The Impact of Trade in Services on Wages and Occupations

  Co-author(s) : Raul Sampognaro (Direction du Trésor) and Farid Toubal (ENS, CEPII)

• Lundi 2 septembre 2013 12:00-13:00

  MSE - 106-112, boulevard d'Hôpital - 75013 Paris ; Room S3

  LOPEZ FORERO Margarita (Paris School of Economics - Paris 1) : Exports and FDI at the firm-level in France: complements or substitutes?

  Co-author(s) : Jean-Charles Bricogne (Banque de France)

  Résumé

  In this paper we revisit empirically the question of whether trade and FDI substitute or complement each other by disentangling the different effects at the firm level. Using a variant of the structural gravity equation we investigate the impact of FDI outflows invested by a French firm on its exports. Having access to a unique dataset of FDI and trade for French firms, we are able go one step further in the disaggregation level (the firm and product) vis-à-vis past analysis done using French data. This allows the attenuation of the so-called aggregation bias which explains in some extent the persistent complementarity found in most analysis. However, given the multiproduct nature of MNEs, even at the firm level this bias might subsist across different products of the firm. Thus, in order to identify the competing trade effects of FDI we match the data with the different hypothesis examined by implementing a comparative analysis between different types of countries, different time horizons of the investment and different types of products. We find that on average even at the firm level there is a persistent complementarity. However, it is higher for non OECD than for OECD countries and the analysis suggests it is explained by a higher substitution effect in richer countries and a higher importance of vertical linkages in non OECD countries. Furthermore, in line with theory, when taking into account the timing of the investment and the different types of products exported, we are able to explicitly identify a substitution (negative) effect for the firms’ core products right after the decision of establishing a new affiliate in a rich country.

• Lundi 10 juin 2013 12:00-13:00

  MSE - 106-112, boulevard d'Hôpital - 75013 Paris ; Room S17

  OLARREAGA Marcelo (University of Geneva - CEPR) : Cooperation in WTO's Tariff Waters

  Co-author(s) : Alessandro Nicita (UNCTAD) and Peri Silva (Kansas State University, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano)

  Résumé

  Many members of the World Trade Organization apply tariffs well below the negotiated tariff bounds. In principle, there are no legal constraints that prevent importing countries to set these tariffs close to optimal levels to exploit their market power. We found that this non-cooperative tariffs setting is observed only in the presence of substantial tariff water. Indeed, if the difference between applied and bound tariffs is below 20 percent, applied tariffs of WTO members cannot be explained by their market power, suggesting that cooperation in the WTO goes beyond observed tariff bounds. Cooperation within WTO tariff waters can be explained by the fear of retaliation from trading partners, in particular when these have considerable market power and tariff water in their schedules.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 27 mai 2013 12:00-13:00

  Maison Sciences Economics 106 - 112 boulevard de l’Hôpital 7

  LE BRIS Florian (Paris School of Economics) : Linking Firms' Intermediate Inputs and Export Performances

  Co-author(s) : Anne-Célia Disdier (Paris School of Economics) and Mélise Jaud (World Bank)

  Résumé

  While intermediate inputs largely dominate today's global exchanges as production processes get "sliced" internationally, there is only little understanding on their contribution to firms'export performances. This paper establishes the direct connection between imports of intermediate inputs and export outcomes, using deta iled firm-level trade data for Morocco between 2002 and 2011. We investigate whether imported intermediate inputs promote firm exports at all margins of trade. We find robust evidence that Moroccan exporters perform better when they source inputs from abroad rather than domestically. Furthermore, greater amount, diversity and quality of imported inputs contribute significantly to raise the value, scope and quality of exported varieties. Estimated effects are always stronger for inputs sourced in OECD countries, whose technological content is arguably higher. These results suggest that, by spreading technology and new varieties, the outsourcing of inputs may strongly promote countries’ participation in export competition and patterns of quality upgrading.

• Lundi 22 avril 2013 12:00-13:00

  Maison Sciences Economics 106 - 112 boulevard de l’Hôpital 7

  THANAGOPAL Thannaletchimy (Université Paris 1) : Price versus Quality War : a Case Study of France and Germany

  Résumé

  Incorporating the new trade and the endogenous growth theories, this paper compares the competitiveness of France and Germany in terms of prices and quality differences. Using the unitary cost of labor as an original proxy for price differences and knowledge innovation (made up of patents and R&D expenditures) as another original proxy for quality, our paper attempts to explain the exporting structure of these two countries as well as determine their import structure under the structure of disaggregated bilateral trade over 15 sectors. We find that knowledge innovation that improves product quality contributes positively and significantly to a country's trade perfromance and that this continual investment in innovation can encourage a country to gain an upper hand over one's competitor (as in the case of France and Germany).

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 11 mars 2013 12:00-13:00

  Maison Sciences Economics 106 - 112 boulevard de l’Hôpital 7

  MARVI Ramezan Ali (Bocconi) : Global Value Chains as Networks of Queues and the Great Trade Collapse

  Co-auteur : Carlo Altomonte

  Résumé

  This paper develops a model to capture the suddenness of the recent trade collapse. We take into account the "time costs" of the headquarter besides the well-known elements of its cost function. The headquarter faces three possible ways to procure the intermediate input: vertical FDI, outsourcing and market-based procuring. Using queueing theory, we derive the "time costs" for these organizational structures. Incorporating these costs in the problem of the headquarter helps us to explain the mechanisms under which a sudden trade collapse will occur. It also helps us to address the motivation for the existence of north-north vertical FDI. Simulating the model reveals that it has the capability of generating the main qualitative features of the data on US monthly trade

• Lundi 25 février 2013 12:00-13:00

  Maison Sciences Economics 106 - 112 boulevard de l’Hôpital 7

  JAUD Mélise (World Bank) : Regime Change, Democracy and Growth

  Co-auteur : Carolina Freund

  Résumé

  Theory and empirics are ambiguous on the eect of democracy on growth. Cross- country studies nd that democracy has no signicant impact on growth. In contrast, within-country studies nd a strong positive eect of transition to democracy. We reconcile this inconsistency by showing that the positive eect of political transition is a result of swift regime change and not democratization. We identify and examine 90 successful, failed, and gradual transitions that have occurred over the last half century. This new classication permits us to compare successful episodes of democratization with unsuccessful ones { as opposed to with the counterfactual of no transition. Wend that both successful and failed transitions boost long-run growth by about one percentage point, but gradual change is quite costly in economic terms. The results imply that the growth dividend from political transition is a result of regime change and not democratization, and also oer new evidence on the importance of the speed of transition for economic growth. The results are robust to a number of alternative specications, to stricter and more lenient denitions of democratic transition, and to including reverse transitions.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 10 décembre 2012 12:00-13:00

  Maison Sciences Economics 106 - 112 boulevard de l’Hôpital 7

  GORMSEN Christian (PSE) : Diasporas and Foreign Direct Investments

• Lundi 3 décembre 2012 12:00-13:00

  Maison Sciences Economics 106 - 112 boulevard de l’Hôpital 7

  HAIDAR Jamal Ibrahim (PSE) : Do Sanctions Matter? Exporter-Level Evidence from Iran

• Lundi 5 novembre 2012 12:00-13:00

  Maison Sciences Economics 106 - 112 boulevard de l’Hôpital 7

  ARCHANSKAI Elizaveta (SciencesPo) : Proximity as a Source of Comparative Advantage

• Lundi 1er octobre 2012 12:00-13:00

  Maison Sciences Economics 106 - 112 boulevard de l’Hôpital 7

  JARREAU Joachim (Paris1) : "The impact of resident status regulations on immigrants’ labor supply: evidence for France"

• Lundi 24 septembre 2012 12:00-13:00

  Maison Sciences Economics 106 - 112 boulevard de l’Hôpital 7

  MILET Emmanuel (Paris1) : "White-collars blues? The impact of services trade on wages and occupations"

  Résumé

  This paper focuses on a virtually unexplored empirical phenomenon: round-tripping of Russian capital via offshore financial centers to Russia as foreign investment. In this study, utilizing a unique firm-level dataset, we empirically test potential differences in investment behavior between round-trip and genuine foreign investors. Our main results can be summarized as follows. For medium and large firms (by capital size at registration date) we find rather convincing evidence that round-trip investments locate in Russian regions with higher resource potential and higher levels of corruption than genuine foreign investments. However, the result for corruption is opposite for small firms, i.e. genuine foreign investors establish more small firms in corrupt Russian regions than round-trip investors. This might indicate that in corrupt Russian regions foreign investors try to minimize their risks associated with regional corruption by establishing small and micro firms. Furthermore, small firms might be used for adoption of business ideas in unstable and corrupt business environment.

• Lundi 17 septembre 2012 12:00-13:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques (MSE) 106-112 Bd de L'Hôpita

  DAUDIN Guillaume (Sciences Po) : Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle

  Co-Auteur : Elizaveta Archanskaia

  Résumé

  This paper shows that reduced heterogeneity of exporter-speci?c goods provides a di- rect explanation of the distance puzzle. Theoretical foundations of the gravity equation indicate that the distance coef?cient is the product of the elasticity of trade costs to distance and a measure of heterogeneity, i.e. the substitution elasticity in the Armington framework. The Armington elasticity has increased by 13% from 1963 to 2009 while the distance elas- ticity of trade has increased by just 7%. The evolution of the distance coef?cient is thus compatible with a 5-7% reduction in the elasticity of trade costs to distance.

• Mercredi 20 juin 2012 17:00-18:00

  MSE S 115

  DOUGHERTY Sean (OECD) : TBA

• Lundi 18 juin 2012 12:00-13:00

  MSE S 115

  BEN YAHMED Sarra (Université d'Aix-Marseille, GREQAM) : Gender Wage Gaps across Skills with Statistical Discrimination and Trade Openness

• Lundi 11 juin 2012 12:00-13:00

  MSE S 115

  FE DOUKOURE Charles (Paris 1) : A new Assessment of the Economic Partnership Agreements Impacts

• Lundi 8 novembre 2010 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Room B2.1

  PARENTI Mathieu (CES, Paris I) : *

• Lundi 18 octobre 2010 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Room B2.1

  Financial constrants and exporting: firm-level evidence from France

  co-écrit avec Philippe Askenazy, Delphine Idrac et Guillaume Gaulier

• Lundi 13 septembre 2010 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Room B2.1

  BEN LI (Colorado University) : Firm Heterogeneity, Technology Transfer, and Ine¢ ciency:On the Choice of Partnership across Borders

• Lundi 31 mai 2010 12:00-13:00

  *

• Lundi 17 mai 2010 12:00-13:00

  FE DOUKOURE Charles (PSE) : Integration and convergence in UEMOA

• Lundi 3 mai 2010 12:00-13:00

  MAYNERIS Florian (PSE) : Entry on export markets and firm-level performance growth: Intra-industrial convergence or divergence?

• Lundi 12 avril 2010 12:00-13:00

  NEARY Peter (University of Oxford) : Multi-Product Firms at Home and Away

  ATTENTION : HORAIRE INHABITUEL

• Lundi 29 mars 2010 11:30-12:30

  MARTIN Julien (PSE) : Chinese Competition and the Quality composition of French Exports

• Lundi 22 mars 2010 12:00-13:00

  *

• Lundi 8 mars 2010 12:00-13:00

  *

• Lundi 22 février 2010 12:00-13:00

  *

• Lundi 8 février 2010 12:00-13:00

  *

• Lundi 25 janvier 2010 12:00-13:00

  ZAKI Chahir : Trade policy and Wage Inequality in Egypt : Evidence from micro data

• Lundi 18 janvier 2010 12:00-13:00

  *

  PSE recruiting seminar

• Lundi 11 janvier 2010 12:00-13:00

  *

  PSE recruiting seminar

• Lundi 4 janvier 2010 12:00-13:00

  *

  PSE recruiting seminar

• Lundi 7 décembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-PARIS 1

  *

• Lundi 23 novembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-PARIS 1

  ZAKI Chahir (Université Paris1) : Rethinking the Effect of Trade Liberalization in Egypt : A Microsimulation Analysis

• Lundi 2 novembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-PARIS 1

  MCCANN Fergal : International outsourcing's role in international technology diffusion : the Irish case

• Lundi 2 novembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-PARIS 1

  MCCANN Fergal : International outsourcing's role in international technology diffusion : the Irish case

• Lundi 26 octobre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-PARIS 1

  PY Loriane (Univ. Paris 1) : Overseas R&D and Performance Abroad : Evidence from Japanese Multinational Firms

• Lundi 26 octobre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-PARIS 1

  PY Loriane (Univ. Paris 1) : Overseas R&D and Performance Abroad : Evidence from Japanese Multinational Firms

• Lundi 12 octobre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-PARIS 1

  SAMPAGNORO Raoul : Productivity Dynamics, International Trade and Firm Selection : a Quantitative Assessment

• Lundi 12 octobre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-PARIS 1

  SAMPAGNORO Raoul : Productivity Dynamics, International Trade and Firm Selection : a Quantitative Assessment

• Lundi 28 septembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1

  VICARD Vincent (Bank of France) : National borders matter ... where one draws the line too

• Lundi 28 septembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1

  VICARD Vincent (Bank of France) : National borders matter ... where one draws the line too

• Lundi 21 septembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1

  DOUGHERTY Sean (OECD) : Openness, regulation, and firm productivity in OECD countries

  with S. Ben Yahmed

• Lundi 21 septembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1

  DOUGHERTY Sean (OECD) : Openness, regulation, and firm productivity in OECD countries

  with S. Ben Yahmed

• Lundi 14 septembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1

  ZUGRAVU Natalia (MSE) : Trade and Sustainable Development: Should transition countries open their markets to environmental goods?

• Lundi 14 septembre 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1

  ZUGRAVU Natalia (MSE) : Trade and Sustainable Development: Should transition countries open their markets to environmental goods?

• Lundi 29 juin 2009 12:00-13:00

  PY Loriane (PSE) : *

• Lundi 29 juin 2009 12:00-13:00

  PY Loriane (PSE) : *

• Lundi 29 juin 2009 12:00-13:00

  PY Loriane (PSE) : *

• Lundi 22 juin 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  CARLUCCIO Juan (PSE) : Labor Market regulations and the Boundaries of Multinational Firms

• Lundi 22 juin 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  CARLUCCIO Juan (PSE) : Labor Market regulations and the Boundaries of Multinational Firms

• Lundi 22 juin 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  CARLUCCIO Juan (PSE) : Labor Market regulations and the Boundaries of Multinational Firms

• Lundi 25 mai 2009 12:00-13:00

  La séance a été annulée.

  SAMPOGNARO Raul (Crest-Paris 1) : *

• Lundi 11 mai 2009 12:30-13:30

  PAILLACAR Rodrigo (PSE) : Footloose cities in Terra Incognita: Hysteresis in the Spanish urban system in the New World

• Lundi 4 mai 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE salle 115

  GORMSEN Christian (Aarhus University) : Intransparent Pices: A Model of Intra-Industry Trade due to Incomplete Information

• Lundi 27 avril 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  JAUD Mélise (PSE-LEA) : *

• Lundi 6 avril 2009 12:00-13:00

  TURNER Matt (University of Toronto) : Land use regulation and welfare

• Lundi 30 mars 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  ZAKI Chahir (PSE) : Rethinking the Effect of Cutting Red Tap in Egypt: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

• Lundi 23 mars 2009

  MSE Paris 1, salle 115

  ANOULIES Lisa (PSE) : Environmental regulation, trade integration and cooperation

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 9 mars 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  PAILLACAR Rodrigo (PSE) : An empirical study of the world economic geography of manufacturing industries (1980-2003)

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 2 mars 2009

  MSE Paris 1, salle 115

  DOUGHERTY Sean (OCDE) : Regulatory Costs And Trade-related Reallocation in the OECD

• Lundi 9 février 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  KRAUTHEIM Sébastian (PSE) : Profit Shifting' FDI and International Tax Competition

• Lundi 26 janvier 2009 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  MARTIN Julien (CREST, Paris1-PSE) : Spatial Price Discrimination in International Markets

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 19 janvier 2009 12:00-13:00

  La séance a été annulée.

  MARTIN Julien (CREST) : Spatial Price Discrimination in International Markets

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 15 décembre 2008 12:00-13:00

  KRAUTHEIM Sébastian (PSE) : Export Supporting FDI

• Lundi 8 décembre 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  HERING Laura (PSE) : The heterogeneity of the impact of investing abroad: Evidence from the matched Japanese firms

• Lundi 1er décembre 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  HAMANO Masashige (Univ. de Rennes 1) : Globalization, Variety Trade and Rising Inequality in the Nation

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 17 novembre 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  LENNON Caroline (PSE) : Export diversification as an Absorber of External Shocks

• Lundi 10 novembre 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle des thèses

  ANDERSON James (Boston College) : Globalization and Income Distribution: A Specfic Factors Continuum Approach

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 3 novembre 2008 12:00-13:00

  La séance a été annulée.

  LIMARDI Michaela (PSE) : *

• Lundi 20 octobre 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 114

  MAYNERIS Florian (PSE) : Local Export Spillovers in France

• Lundi 29 septembre 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  POTIN Jacques (ESSEC) : A League of their Own: High-Quality Producers and International Trade

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 15 septembre 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 115

  BAS Maria (PSE) : The impact of foreign competition and trade in intermediates on the extensive margins of technology adoption and trade

• Lundi 23 juin 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  LENNON C. (aff. n.c.) : Trade in services: Cross border trade vs commercial presence. Evidence of complementarity

• Lundi 16 juin 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  ZAKI C. (aff. n.c.) : Does trade facilitation matter in bilateral trade ?

• Lundi 9 juin 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  COUTTENIER M. (aff. n.c.) : Relationship between institutions and natural resources

• Lundi 26 mai 2008

  La séance a été annulée.

  *

• Lundi 19 mai 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  CHATELAIS N. (aff. n.c.) : Are Small Countries Leaders of the European Tax Competition ?

• Lundi 5 mai 2008 12:00-13:00

  GUILLIN A. (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne-Paris 1) : *

• Lundi 7 avril 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  FALLY T. (PSE) : *

• Lundi 17 mars 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  PAPPADA F. (aff. n.c.) : The real adjustment of the US current account position in a model with firms' heterogeneity

• Lundi 11 février 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  BERTHOU A. (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne-Paris 1) : Real exchange rate movements and bilateral exports : the dampening effect of trade costs

• Lundi 4 février 2008 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  KARAM F. (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne-Paris 1) : *

• Lundi 21 janvier 2008 12:00-13:00

  La séance a été annulée.

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  ZAKI C. (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne-Paris 1) : *

• Lundi 17 décembre 2007 12:00-13:00

  VICARD V. (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne-Paris 1) : Trade, Conflicts, and Political Integration: Explaining the Heterogeneity of Regional Trade Agreements

• Lundi 26 novembre 2007 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  EYQUEM A. (Univ. de Rennes 1) : Assessing the Welfare Gains of Tade Integration in the EMU

  Co-auteur : J.M. Poutineau

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 19 novembre 2007 12:00-13:00

  TAI S (aff. n.c.) : How Market Structure Explains the Link between Migration & Trade?

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 5 novembre 2007 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  HAMANO M. (aff. n.c.) : The HBS effect with extensive margins

• Lundi 15 octobre 2007 12:00-13:00

  MSE-Paris 1, salle 113

  MAYNERIS F. (EHESS) : Politiques publiques de soutien aux clusters

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• 0000 13:00-14:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle S/2

  WIBAUX Pauline (Paris 1 - PSE) : Trade Retaliation

  Davide Furceri (IMF), Chris Papageorgiou (IMF)

• 0000

  MSE Room S17

  PITON Sophie (PSE) : TBA