Séminaires

Régulation et Environnement

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Prochainement

• Lundi 5 juin 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SUZUKI Shiba (Seikei University) : *Green Bonds and Term Premiums

  Résumé

  This study tackles a public finance issue on climate change: a carbon tax and government bonds to finance public spending for adaptation. This type of bond is known as “green bonds” and presents remarkable growth in the global market. We construct an asset-pricing model in which climate change stochastically damages the TFP growth rate. The government can control the risk of such economic damage through a carbon tax to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and government spending on adaptation. Additionally, the government raises funds by issuing bonds with different maturities. We demonstrate that green bonds yield term premiums in a dynamic economy if climate change has long-lasting economic impacts. This term premium on government bonds with different maturities serves as an arbitrage opportunity and enables the government to raise funds. We demonstrate that issuing green bonds can improve welfare compared to the balanced-budget policy.

• Lundi 12 juin 2023 12:00-13:15

  GAUTHIER Stephane (PSE) :

Archives

• Lundi 22 mai 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  VONA Francesco (University of Milan) : *Climate Policy and the Carbon Content of Jobs

  Résumé

  "Climate policies have heterogeneous labour market impacts across sectors and occupations. However, there are no clear indexes to measure the worker's exposure to ambitious climate policy. We propose an occupation-based approach to measure the worker's vulnerability to climate policies. Using rich establishment-level data for France, we construct a time-varying measure of the carbon content of jobs for more than 400 occupations over the period 2003-2018. We show that carbon intensive occupations exhibit a mild catching-up in terms of emissions per worker, are geographically concentrated and highly exposed to other structural transformations (automation and trade). We then estimate the extent to which the impact of energy prices, a proxy of climate policies, is mediated by the occupational carbon intensity using a shift-share instrument. Both wages and employment losses are significantly larger for carbon intensive occupations, also when we carefully control for the exposure to other structural shocks. Importantly, a sector-based approach to measure vulnerability to climate policies gives less clear and robust results on policy effects than an occupation-based ones. "

• Lundi 15 mai 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ELLIOTT Robert (Burmingham) : *“Centralising the enforcement of environmental regulations: Using machine learning to aid policy evaluation in China”

  Matt Cole, Bowen Lu, TuanVan Vu and Zongbo Shi

  Résumé

  To overcome key challenges in environmental policy evaluation we use machine learning based weather normalisation techniques to strip out the effect of weather on air pollution estimates. Combined with Augmented Synthetic Control Methods (ASCM) we provide a causal estimate of the impact of China’s decision to centralise environmental policy enforcement. Focusing on Hebei province we find that the recently introduced Central Environmental Inspection Policy led to a short term reduction in PM2.5 and SO2 immediately after the inspection. However, within 3 months of the inspection team leaving, pollution levels had returned to previous levels. Comparisons with Difference-in-Difference estimations show the importance of both weather normalising and using an ASCM approach, particularly in the absence of parallel pre-trends.

• Mercredi 10 mai 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-14, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LORIS André (PSE) : "Green finance and deforestation reduction in Brazil: a PVAR analysis of the Amazon Fund"

  YANGSIYU Lu (PSE) : "Growing the Economy with Green Regulation: Evidence from Industrial Firms in China"

  Résumé

  Yangsiyu Abstract: Whether regulation is good or bad for growth is a long-standing question in economics. In this paper, we study the impact of an environmental regulation on industrial firms’ productivity in China, examining not only firms in the highly-polluting industries but also those that are less polluting but still regulated “cleaner” firms. We show that doing so allows us to capture the net impact of environmental regulation on economic activity. Using a heterogeneous difference-in-differences approach, we find that the productivity of "cleaner" firms increases by 4%, while there is no effect on productivity for highly polluting firms. Firm exit, output effect, and process and practice innovations are the primary drivers of these productivity impacts, and the mechanisms differ between private firms and state-owned enterprises. ******* Loris Abstract: The Amazon rainforest is emitting more carbon dioxide than it can absorb due to deforestation since 2021, leading to significant impacts on global warming. The loss of biodiversity due to land use change in the Amazon biome is also a major issue. Legal Amazon is an administrative area in Brazil that encompasses 64% of the Amazon biome and nine federal states. The Amazon Fund is the main international climate finance vehicle that operates in Legal Amazon, but its disbursements have decreased significantly in recent years due to disagreements between donors and the Brazilian government. This paper aims to assess the impact of the Amazon Fund's projects on reducing deforestation and other factors such as national environmental agency sanctions and agricultural production. By using satellite observations and microeconomic data, a panel dataset has been constructed to analyze the evolution of various environmental features, climate finance, regulation, and production from 2002 to 2020 across 760 municipalities in Legal Amazonia. A Panel Vector AutoRegression (PVAR) is used to model a stylized economic system in which variables can affect each other at different lags. The study's main findings suggest that the Amazon Fund's disbursements significantly reduce deforestation rates, with state-managed projects proving more effective than those managed by municipalities or universities. The most efficient projects involve land use planning, which includes the development and the protection of local autochthonous communities. Overall, the study highlights that the Amazon Fund's operates with a very low abatement cost (under $1 per ton of CO2).

• Lundi 17 avril 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  DECAROLIS Francesco (Bocconi) : *Competition and Defaults in Online Search

  Résumé

  Promoting and maintaining competition in the online markets dominated by few, large platforms has been an elusive quest for governments and their competition authorities. In this study, we offer the first systematic assessment of the quantitative effects of a series of interventions taken across countries to curb Google’s dominance in search by limiting its use as the default option. By exploiting the timing with which such interventions occurred in the European Economic Area, Russia, and Turkey relative to control group countries, we study how changes to the default settings on mobile devices impacted the penetration of different search engines. Our findings show that in all of these three cases, the interventions were effective in reducing the market share of Google. The causal impact of the public intervention amounts to less than 2 percentage points in the European Economic Area, 7 percentage points in Russia, and 12 percentage points in Turkey. These differences are driven by the nuances of the specific interventions such as the size of the targeted group of users, local market characteristics, and remedy designs.

• Lundi 3 avril 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BRICONGNE Jean-Charles (Banque de France) : "Cementing the real-time economic monitoring using satellite infrared images"

  LIETTI Benjamin (Banque de France)

  Résumé

  "The Covid-19 crisis has demonstrated the need for alternative data, available in real-time and with global coverage. In that vein, this paper exploits daily infrared images taken from satellites to track the economic activity in 42 advanced and developing countries. As satellite images are an untapped data source in the economic literature so far, this paper develops an innovative framework to read, clean, and exploit such data. Specifically, we construct an algorithm based on the laws of physics and machine learning techniques to detect the heat produced by cement plants in activity. This allows us to monitor in near real-time (with one day lag) if the cement plants are functioning. Using this information on more than 500 plants, we construct a satellite-based index which tracks the activity in the cement industry in each country. Given the predominant role of cement in construction, empirical evidence suggests these satellite data significantly improve the nowcasting of the activity in the construction sector compared to other alternative indicators (PMI, Google Trends). "

• Lundi 27 mars 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  WAGNER Ulrich (Mannheim) : *Management Practices and Climate Policy in China

  Résumé

  "We investigate how management quality moderates the impact of carbon pricing on Chinese firms. Based on interviews with managers and lead engineers at manufacturing firms in Hubei and Beijing, we construct a novel index on climate-change related management practices and link it to firm data from various sources. We document that well-managed firms are on average more productive and engage more in green innovation than the rest. We conduct an event study of the introduction of a regional cap-and-trade scheme for CO2 in Beijing and find that treated firms reduced coal consumption more than control firms, but this effect is statistically significant only for well-managed firms. In the absence of such firms, our empirical estimates imply that aggregate coal use would have increased rather than decreased following the introduction of carbon pricing. This highlights the importance of good management practices for market-based climate policies to be effective. "

• Lundi 20 mars 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  KOUSKY Carolyn (Wharton/EDF) : *Can Insurance Help Solve Environmental and Social Challenges?

  Résumé

  "Risk management will be central to environmental and social progress in the coming decades as we face the interconnected global challenges of climate change, widespread biodiversity loss, and inequities in the impacts. Households and firms, communities and countries, all face rapidly escalating physical risks, as well as transition risks. To not only persevere through these generation-defining challenges, but transition to a world where people and the planet can thrive, insurance and risk transfer could be critical to enabling economic change, directing capital toward sustainable futures, facilitating needed investments, and providing inclusive and equitable financial protection. Is insurance up to the task? This talk will discuss innovations in insurance products, partnerships, and approaches that are being designed to support environmental and social goals."

• Lundi 13 mars 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BURLIG Fiona (University of Chicago ) : *The value of forecasts: Experimental evidence from developing-country agriculture

  Résumé

  Climate risk is a key driver of low agricultural productivity in poor countries. We use a cluster-randomized trial to evaluate a novel risk-mitigation approach: long-range forecasts that provide information about the onset of the Indian summer monsoon well in advance of its arrival. In contrast to traditional ex post risk coping approaches, this novel ex ante technology provides accurate information significantly before the monsoon's arrival, enabling farmers to alter major up front input decisions. Moreover, forecasts have the potential to be disseminated cheaply, even at scale. We assign 250 villages to one of three groups: a control group; a group that receives an opportunity to purchase the forecast; and a group that is offered insurance. We present preliminary results, including on farmers' willingness-to-pay for forecasts; how forecasts affect farmer beliefs and up-front investments; and benchmark these preliminary effects against the canonical ex post loss mitigation tool: index insurance.

• Lundi 6 mars 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BRAUN Thomas (Columbia) : *Cooling Externality of Large-Scale Irrigation

  Résumé

  Using a triple-difference estimator based on a 59-year-long panel of weather records paired with irrigation data around the Ogallala aquifer, we provide novel evidence that large-scale irrigation heterogeneously shifts the temperature distribution towards cooler temperatures during months of the growing season. Cooling-by-irrigation propagates downwind and reduces the upper tail of the temperature distribution by up to 3°C in August, which has positive externalities on downwind crop yields ($120 million/y) and temperature-induced excess mortality ($240 million/y) that are of equal magnitude as the direct benefits of irrigation by enhancing heat tolerance of crops ($440 million/y). The observed cooling helps explain why the US has seen less warming, especially in very hot temperatures, than what climate models project. Our findings also highlight that weather shocks in highly irrigated areas are not exogenous but are influenced by human responses in the form of irrigation.

• Lundi 13 février 2023 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  UGINET Pierre (PSE) : *Melt water, seasonality and economic activities. An example from South Asia.

  Résumé

  While climate change is projected to deeply modify melting processes of solid water, the links between seasonal snow, mountain glaciers melt and downstream economic activities is still unclear. In an econometric analysis of melt water shocks and overall economic activity at subnational levels, I deepen the understanding of whether and through which channel hydrological conditions affect economic development. I construct a new data set of monthly melt water shocks based on snow cover and glaciers data and combine them with nighttime light intensity at the 0.1? grid cell level over the entire region of Himalayan-fed hydraulic sub-basins. The data set covers all months from 2000 to 2013. I estimate the change in month specific annual economic development in a hydraulic sub-basin as a function of current and past melt water shocks in the chain of upstream sub-basins. This paper provides further evidence that upstream hydrological conditions have causal effects on downstream economic development. The key findings are that (i) economic development are significantly dependent on seasonal melt water quantities, (ii) shocks in discharged melt water have causal impacts on downstream economic activities and (iii) agriculture is the main channel through which the impacts propagate through the economy.

• Lundi 5 décembre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LEPAULT Claire (PSE) : *Is urban wastewater treatment effective in India?

  Résumé

  While water pollution control is key to sustainable development, the effectiveness of water regulations in India is controversial. In this paper, I study the effect of recent Indian urban sewerage infrastructure on ambient water quality and downstream infant mortality. I use the 2020-21 national inventory of sewage treatment plants which I match to in situ measures of water quality spanning 1991-2020 using a geo-referenced network of Indian rivers and to child births in downstream villages using watershed boundaries. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I compare water pollution and health related to agglomerations that started wastewater treatment from 2010 onward versus agglomeration where wastewater treatment is in project in 2020. I use estimators robust to heterogeneous effects in the case of a staggered difference-in-differences design where treatment effects vary over time. I find that wastewater treatment decreases significantly both water pollution -- measured by levels of fecal coliforms -- and infant mortality.

• Lundi 28 novembre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SCHNEIDER Eric (LSE) : *Atmospheric Pollution and Child Morbidity from Respiratory Diseases: Evidence from the London Foundling Hospital 1897-1914

  Résumé

  This paper tests the influence of short-run, exogenous spikes in atmospheric pollution on disease outcomes for children. I use Hanlon (2022)’s data on fog events in London to proxy short-run spikes in pollution since fogs trapped existing pollution close to the ground. The morbidity data, covering both the incidence (new cases) of disease, sickness duration (time in the infirmary) and the appearance of complications, is reconstructed from rich, individual-level sickness information recorded by an orphanage in London, the Foundling Hospital, from 1897 to 1914. The infirmary records include over 6,000 sickness events from 235 different diseases for c. 1,000 children. I find evidence that pollution caused greater spread and also increased sickness duration for a wide range of respiratory diseases (catarrh, tonsillitis, influenza and bronchitis). Implications for the health transition are explored.

• Lundi 21 novembre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BRANCACCIO Giulia (NYU) : Search Frictions and Product Design in the Municipal Bond Market

  Résumé

  This paper shows that product design shapes search frictions and that intermediaries leverage this channel to increase their rents in the context of the U.S. municipal bond market. The majority of bonds are designed via negotiations between a local government and its underwriter. They are then traded in a decentralized market, where the underwriter often also acts as an intermediary. Exploiting variations in state regulations that limit government officials’ conflicts of interest, we provide evidence that bond design from the government’s perspective involves a trade-off between flexibility and liquidity, but the underwriter benefits from designing and trading complex bonds. Motivated by these findings, we build and estimate a model of bond origination and trades to quantify market inefficiency driven by underwriters’ role in intermediating trades and discuss policy implications.

• Lundi 14 novembre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  JHA Saumitra : *Blackouts in the Developing World: The Role of Wholesale Electricity Markets

• Lundi 7 novembre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  KOCH Xavier (PSE) : *The impact of Environmental Corporate Social Responsibility on carbon intensity: Evidence from French manufacturing firms

  Résumé

  Corporate social and environmental responsibility (CSR) is an increasingly important topic, with CSR claims sending a respectability signal to investors, regulators, and consumers. The objective of this article is to provide empirical evidence on the impact of environmental CSR on the carbon intensity of corporate production. Within the growing literature on the effects of corporate CSR on firm’s performance, the literature on its economic impacts is more developed than that on environmental impacts.  This difference can be explained in part by the difficulty of obtaining emissions data from companies in addition to their CSR activities. This paper is the first to use a CSR score based on survey data to determine the impact of environmental CSR on the carbon intensity of production. The aim is to assess whether environmental CSR activity is greenwashing or a genuine effort to reduce the company’s environmental footprint. The results suggest that CSR activity reflects an actual effort by firms to reduce the carbon intensity of their production and is not greenwashing. The article relies on a method that instruments CSR according to a two-step procedure. It allows the estimation to account for the endogeneity of CSR activities with respect to the carbon intensity of production.

• Lundi 17 octobre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GOUSSEBAILE Arnaud (ETH Zürich) : *Democratic Climate Policies with Overlapping Generations

  Résumé

  An extensive climate policy literature provides various recommendations, but they are not supported democratically since the models employed consider either infinitely-lived individuals or normative social objectives (or both). In contrast, the present paper provides policy recommendations that are able to go through democratic processes. I develop an overlapping generation model with political process micro-foundations. I analyze how democratic policies, which are directly and indirectly related to climate change, differ from standard recommended policies. The novel politico-economic formula derived for the interest rate highlights that individual pure time preference, individual altruism toward descendants, and young generation political power are key determinants of democratic climate policy ambition.

• Lundi 10 octobre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  NIEDERMAYER Andras (Cergy Paris Université) : *Rational Panic Purchases

  Résumé

  We analyze rational panic purchases in a two-period model that incorporates uncertainty about sellers’ capacity and buyers’ need for the good. Even if sellers have enough capacity to satisfy demand, there may be shortages because consumers panic purchase. We show that panics can only occur if consumers are risk averse or in noncompetitive equilibria. In noncompetitive equilibria, sellers initially price below opportunity cost to induce a panic and achieve higher profits later. Conventional wisdom for various policies may be overturned when it comes to preventing panic purchases: rationing, price caps, information policy, changes of consumption tax, and restrictions on resellers.

• Lundi 3 octobre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MANSUR Erin (Dartmouth College) : *Decarbonization and Electrification in the Long Run

  Résumé

  Decarbonization will require a completely transformed electricity grid. We analyze a long-run model that captures crucial aspects of the electricity industry such as time-varying demand for electricity, intermittency of renewables, optimal use of storage technologies, and entry and exit of generation and storage capacity. Long-run effects can differ in surprising ways from short-run intuition: A carbon tax can increase electricity consumption; cheaper storage may lead to a decrease in renewable capacity by decreasing prices when renewables are operating; and an increase in electricity demand (e.g., electrification) may lead to a decrease in emissions if it induces sufficient renewable entry. Using hourly data for the U.S. market, we calibrate the model to evaluate decarbonization policies. A carbon price of $150 or more essentially eliminates carbon emissions. Given a modest decarbonization goal, a renewable subsidy performs better than a nuclear subsidy, but this ranking is reversed for an ambitious decarbonization goal. Policies promoting transmission or storage are unlikely to yield significant benefits unless paired with subsidies for renewables. Electrifying 100% of car miles traveled (thereby eliminating gasoline vehicle carbon emissions) would increase electricity-sector carbon emissions by 23-27% if vehicles are charged at night, but could decrease electricity-sector carbon emissions if vehicles are charged during the day.

• Lundi 26 septembre 2022 17:00-18:15

  réunion ZOOM

  ITO Koichiro (Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago) : *Choosing Who Chooses: Selection-Driven Targeting in Energy Rebate Programs

  Résumé

  We develop an optimal policy assignment rule that integrates two distinctive approaches commonly used in economics: targeting by observables and targeting through self-selection. Our method can be used with experimental or quasi-experimental data to identify who should be treated, be untreated, and self-select to achieve a policymaker's objective. Applying this method to a randomized controlled trial on a residential energy rebate program, we find that targeting that optimally exploits both observable data and self-selection outperforms conventional targeting for a utilitarian welfare function as well as welfare functions that balance the equity-efficiency trade-off. We highlight that the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) framework (Imbens and Angrist, 1994) can be used to investigate the mechanism behind our approach. By estimating several key LATEs based on the random variation created by our experiment, we demonstrate how our method allows policymakers to identify whose self-selection would be valuable and harmful to social welfare.

• Lundi 19 septembre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LAMBERT-MOGILIANSKY Ariane (PSE) : *Pro-business arbitration with ISDS

  Résumé

  In this paper we investigate the Investor-State Dispute Resolution Settlement (ISDS) framework, which governs dispute resolution between foreign investors and host states in many bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. We show that ISDS delivers fair justice in a one-shot setting. In a repeated-interaction setting however, it is prone to collusion to the benefit of all parties except the host states. Three factors are determinant: First, the investors are the sole parties able to file cases; Second, arbitrators' earning prospects depend on the investors' filing cases; And finally, treaties leave substantial discretion to arbitration courts in their interpretation of treaties' provisions. We give conditions for pro-business collusion between investors and arbitrators to develop and we show how it makes it profitable for foreign investors to file high-stake claims against states in response to new environmental, social or health regulations. Further, we address regulatory chill and show how the fear of ISDS attacks can hold back welfare improving regulation in the host country. Finally, we extend the model to show how regulatory chill affect policy-making in other countries in which the investor operates with similar activities.

• Lundi 12 septembre 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CHERITEL Côme (PSE) : Generational Carbon Accounts: decomposing the carbon footprint by age to assess the impact of age and generation on carbon emissions

  Résumé

  There is no broad scientific consensus on the impact of population dynamics such as population ageing on greenhouse gas emissions and consequently on global warming. Given that the analysis of the links between population and emissions is mainly carried out in an aggregated way, it is not possible to identify demographic heterogeneity in emissions patterns. While the studies using micro-data are able to disaggregate consumption by demographic characteristics, they often do not perform an analysis based on a true accounting of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes a methodology for constructing age-specific carbon accounts, i.e. a decomposition of the carbon footprint by age. First, by estimating a household consumption model, I decompose a household's consumption by types of goods and by household members. Successively with an Input-Output analysis, I estimate the carbon footprint of each category of goods and services by age group and subsequently derive a decomposition of the carbon footprint of a given country by type of goods. The method proposed is highly flexible and can therefore be applied to any countries with micro data on household consumption. Here I present preliminary results for France, Japan, South Korea and Mexico between 1995 and 2018. According to the initial results, for all survey years, the consumption of high footprint goods is concentrated among those aged between 30–60-year-olds. The decomposition of consumption shows low emissions attributable to the youngest age group due to the scale effect that occurs when a household increases in size. Those aged over 60 years old have a lower volume of transport-related emissions, and hence a smaller carbon footprint. These results differ slightly by country, although they are broadly similar. While it is tempting to assume from these results that population ageing may facilitate decarbonisation due to lower consumption amongst the older age groups, the results presented here are static and do not take into account the dynamic nature of the issue. In the next steps, this study plans to analyse the carbon footprint by age, distinguishing between life cycle effects, cohort effects and technological dynamics.

• Lundi 13 juin 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  WOLAK Frank (Stanford) : Nonlinear Price Schedules for Urban Water Utilities to Balance Revenue and Conservation Goals

  Résumé

  This paper formulates and estimates a household-level, billing-cycle water demand model under increasing block prices that accounts for the impact of monthly weather variation, the amount of vegetation on the household’s property, and customer-level heterogeneity in demand due to household demographics. The model utilizes US Census data on the distribution of household demographics in the utility’s service territory to recover the impact of these factors on water demand. An index of the amount of vegetation on the household’s property is obtained from NASA satellite data. The household-level demand models are used to compute the distribution of utility-level water demand and revenues for any possible price schedule. It can be used to design nonlinear pricing plans that achieve competing revenue or water conservation goals, which is crucial for water utilities to manage increasingly uncertain water availability yet still remain financially viable. Knowledge of how these demands differ across customers based on observable household characteristics can allow the utility to reduce the utility-wide revenue or sales risk it faces for any pricing plan. Knowledge of how the structure of demand varies across customers can be used to design personalized (based on observable household demographic characteristics) increasing block price schedules to further reduce the risk the utility faces on a system-wide basis. For the utilities considered, knowledge of the customer-level demographics that predict demand differences across households reduces the uncertainty in the utility’s system-wide revenues from 22 to 84 percent. Further reductions in the uncertainty in the utility’s system-wide revenues, in the range of 10 to 73 percent, are possible by re-designing the utility’s nonlinear price schedules to minimize the revenue risk it faces given the distribution of household-level demand in its service territory.

• Lundi 30 mai 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  LOPEZ Angel Luis (Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC)) : Common Ownership and Technology Adoption

• Lundi 23 mai 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  FRANÇOIS Manon (PSE) : The complexity of multinational enterprises and tax avoidance

  Résumé

  Does the complexity of multinationals' ownership structure serve tax avoidance? We use cross-country firm-level data to provide a description of the complexity determinants of ownership structure of multinational firms and show that affiliates belonging to more complex MNEs are more likely to bunch around zero profit, consistent with tax avoidance by multinational firms.

• Lundi 16 mai 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  BOSETTI Valentina (Unibocconi) : Decarbonizing the economy, model projections and reality

• Lundi 9 mai 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  CAMPIGLIO Emanuele (Universita' di Bologna) : Optimal transition to a low-carbon economy

  Résumé

  The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, economic and climatic shocks, and clean technological progress. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement costs calibrated on a large energy modelling database and solved with recursive methods, we estimate a net premium of 17% on the optimal carbon price today relative to a ‘straw man’ model with perfect capital mobility, fixed abatement costs and no uncertainty. The optimal path involves rapid emissions reductions and a best estimate of US$2.6 trillion of cumulative disinvestment in dirty capital – ‘stranded assets’. Another reason to price carbon at a high level today is to avoid climate damages in the short to medium run. These are ignored if the planning problem is construed as one of meeting a temperature constraint at minimum discounted abatement cost, which typifies contemporary climate policy discussions.

• Lundi 2 mai 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  LEVONYAN Vardges (UZH) : BBC, Brexit, and Balanced Reporting

  Résumé

  Media organizations can shape news via their choice of coverage and slant. We measure the aggregate slant of the BBC from 2014-18, benchmark it against UK newspapers of known political leaning, and show that it took a sharp turn to the right in the runup to the Brexit vote. We disaggregate this shift across topics and show that roughly three-quarters of the measured change was due to stories related to the European Union, that 90% of that change was due to increased coverage relative to topic-specific slant, and that the change was driven by crowding out of left-leaning topics. We show even stronger results on a Leave/Remain rather than Labour/Conservative scale. We measure the causal effect of this shift using two different datasets and empirical approaches and both show causal increases of exposure to BBC news on Brexit vote intentions/vote shares, with effects sufficiently large that the absence of a change in the BBC’s slant would have made the Brexit vote too close to call.

• Lundi 11 avril 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  SIOTIS Georgios (UC3M) : Market Definition and Competition Policy Enforcement in the Pharmaceutical Industry

  Résumé

  Market definition, the first step in competition proceedings, establishes the perimeter of the competitive analysis. In this paper, we focus on market definition in the pharmaceutical industry, where the introduction of generics in different markets provide a sequence of quasi natural experiments involving a significant competitive shock for the molecule experiencing Loss of Exclusivity. We show that generic entry alters competitive constraints and generates market-wide effects. Paradoxically, entry may soften competitive pressure for some originators. We obtain these results by econometrically estimating time-varying price elasticities. We then apply the logic of the Hypothetical Monopolist Test to delineate antitrust markets under different market structures. Our results provide strong empirical support to the approach consisting in defining relevant markets contingent on the theory of harm. We discuss the relevance of these findings in the context of ongoing cases.

• Lundi 4 avril 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  BARRET Scott (Columbia University) : Property Rights to the (Linear) Ocean in Customary International Law

• Lundi 28 mars 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  DOBKOWITZ Sonja (University of Bonn) : Redistribution, Demand, and Sustainable Production

• Lundi 21 mars 2022 17:30-19:00

  Online

  SHAPIRO Joseph (UC Berkeley) : Regulating Untaxable Externalities: Are Vehicle Air Pollution Standards Effective and Efficient?

  Résumé

  What is a feasible and efficient policy to regulate air pollution from vehicles? A Pigou-vian tax is technologically infeasible. Most countries instead rely on exhaust standards that limit air pollution emissions per mile for new vehicles. We assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these standards, which are the centerpiece of US Clean Air Act regulation of transportation, and counterfactual policies. We show that the air pollution emissions per mile of new US vehicles has fallen spectacularly, by over 99 percent, since standards began in 1967. Several research designs with a half century of data suggest that exhaust standards have caused most of this decline. Yet exhaust standards are not cost-effective in part because they fail to encourage scrap of older vehicles, which account for the majority of emissions. To study counterfactual policies, we develop an analytical and a quantitative model of the vehicle fleet. Analysis of these models suggests that tighter exhaust standards increase social welfare and that increasing registration fees on dirty vehicles yields even larger gains by accelerating scrap, though both reforms have complex effects on inequality.

• Lundi 14 mars 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  LAUKKANEN Marita (VATT) : *Vehicle scrappage subsidies as a climate policy tool: program effects on new car emission intensity

• Lundi 7 mars 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  WAGNER Ulrich (Mannheim) : Technology Lock-In and Optimal Carbon Pricing

• Lundi 21 février 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  DUGOUA Eugenie (LSE) : Induced Innovation, Inventors, and the Energy Transition

• Lundi 14 février 2022 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  FLEURBAEY Marc (PSE) : Estimating the persistence of climate shocks, accounting for country-level heterogeneity

  GILLI Martino (PSE) : Estimating the persistence of climate shocks, accounting for country-level heterogeneity

• Lundi 13 décembre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2-21 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  CAMBONI Riccardo (University of Padova) : Bidding on price and quality: An experiment on the complexity of scoring rule auctions

  Résumé

  We experimentally study procurement auctions when both quality and price matter. We compare two treatments where sellers compete on one dimension only (price or quality), with three two-dimensional treatments where sellers submit a price-quality bid, and the winner is determined by a score that combines the two offers. We find that, in the two-dimensional treatments, efficiency and buyer's utility are lower than their predicted levels. Estimates from a Quantal Response Equilibrium model suggest that increasing the dimensionality and the size of the suppliers' strategy space increases their tendency to bid suboptimally, thus undermining the theoretical superiority of more complex mechanisms.

• Lundi 6 décembre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2-21 - Campus Jourdan - 75014 PARIS

  RICK VAN DER PLOEG (University of Oxford) : Carbon pricing and portfolio diversification

• Lundi 29 novembre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2-21 - Campus Jourdan - 75014 PARIS

  DECHEZLEPRETRE Antoine (LSE/OECD) : Climate policy uncertainty and firms’ and investors’ behavior

  Résumé

  Whether and how firms are affected by uncertainty revolving around the implementation of climate policy is crucial to understand firms’ behavior and short-term versus long-run planning as well as to shed light on the potential for systemic risk related with the coordinated implementation of ambitious climate policy. Hence, we develop a new index of climate policy uncertainty, covering the United States with monthly-level variation between 1990 and 2018. We analyze the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and firm-level outcomes such as share price, share price volatility, investments in research and development, and employment for all publicly-listed firms in the country. We find that climate policy uncertainty tends to affect negatively all these outcomes, and often more so than existing indices of economic policy uncertainty. Further, we leverage the fact that climate policy requires the transition from a “dirty” to a low-carbon equilibrium, with progress and setbacks along the road, which create a promising context to analyze short-term versus long-run planning and belief revision. Consistently with expectations, we find that climate policy uncertainty can lead to positive effects on the abovementioned outcomes in periods of setbacks and when uncertainty is driven by failure in the climate policy process rather than success.

• Lundi 22 novembre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2-21 - Campus Jourdan - 75014 PARIS

  MAUE Casey (PSE) : Exact Integration of Climate and Weather in Estimating Climate Damages

  Résumé

  We develop a novel econometric approach to measuring the economic impacts of climate change and use this method to estimate the effects of marginal climate change on profits in the U.S. agricultural sector. Our method is grounded in a theoretical framework where agents make production decisions and adaptive decisions to optimize expected profits with respect to the long-run local climate. We treat the climate as a distribution separately from weather, which is viewed as a draw from the distribution, and use full information about both for the estimation. In the first part of our analysis, we derive an analytical expression for the economic value of a marginal change in the climate that incorporates the expectation over the weather distribution that would result in a marginally changed climate. Next, we show how to empirically measure this marginal product in a simplified setting where economic value is determined by a vector of weather parameters. Finally, we apply this empirical framework to the climate of the modern United States using measures of agricultural profits and heating degree-days covering the period from 1954 to 2017. Our results indicate that climate impacts driven by changes in the expected value of the agricultural production function over a marginally changed weather distribution account for only a modest share of overall effects. This result highlights that climate change may not only affect economic outcomes through changing the distribution of weather, but also via effects on non-weather inputs to production technologies.

• Lundi 15 novembre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2-21 - Campus Jourdan - 75014 PARIS

  CHONÉ Philippe (ENSAE) : Double marginalization and vertical integration

  Résumé

  Asymmetric information in procurement entails double marginalization. The phenomenon is most severe when the buyer has all the bargaining power at the production stage, while it vanishes when the buyer and suppliers' weights are balanced. Vertical integration eliminates double marginalization and reduces the likelihood that the buyer purchases from independent suppliers. Conditional on market foreclosure, the probability that final consumers are harmed is positive only if the buyer has more bargaining power when selecting suppliers than when negotiating over prices and quantities. Otherwise, the buyer's and consumers' interests are aligned.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 8 novembre 2021 17:00-18:15

  On line

  CARLETON Tamma (UCSB) : The global water footprint of distortionary agricultural policy

  Résumé

  Global demands on freshwater resources are rising. While policy responses have focused on the design of local water institutions, distortions in the global market for agricultural goods can lead to overproduction of water-intensive goods in regions where water is relatively scarce. In this paper, I combine satellite- derived measures of water availability with a collection of spatial and admin- istrative datasets to provide globally-comprehensive, empirical estimates of the influence of policy distortions in agricultural markets on local water supplies. I find that interventions raising domestic agricultural output prices significantly lower local water availability, particularly for water-intensive crops and in lo- cations most suitable for those crops. I then quantify the impact that recent liberalization of agricultural markets has had on water resources. I find that in locations with declining water resources, water supplies would be 16% lower had liberalization not taken place. These water savings are largest in locations with higher baseline levels of water stress. In contrast, liberalization slightly re- duces water supplies in locations with low water stress. These findings suggest that reducing agricultural market distortions may alleviate global water stress by slowing extraction where water is most scarce.

• Lundi 18 octobre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2-21 - Campus Jourdan 75014 PARIS

  MARBLER Alexander (University of Graz) : Water Scarcity, Agriculture, and Local Economic Activity: A Global Analysis

• Lundi 11 octobre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2-21 - Campus Jourdan - 75014 PARIS

  ZABROCKI Leo (PSE) : Inference Design In Studies on Acute Health Effects of Air Pollution

  BAGILET Vincent

  Résumé

  We explore statistical power characteristics of various empirical strategies implemented to estimate the short-term health effect of air pollution. Through an extensive literature review, we retrieve the estimates and standard errors of a large number of studies published on this topic. We find that a non-negligible share of studies may suffer from low power issues and could thereby exaggerate effect sizes. The analysis of published results highlights potential shortcomings of the literature but does not enable to precisely identify drivers of theses is sues. We therefore run realistic simulations to investigate how statistical power varies with the treatment effect size, the number of observations, the proportion of treated units as well as the distribution of the outcome. Usual causal identi fication methods implemented in this literature, such as instrumental variable (IV), regression discontinuity design (RD) or difference-in-differences (DiD), may yield overestimated effect sizes. This issue is driven by the imprecision of the IV estimator and the small number of exogenous shocks usually exploited in DiD and RD designs. When focusing on particular groups such as the elderly or children, researchers should be aware that statistical power is lowered by the limited average count of health outcomes

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 4 octobre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R2-21 - Campus Jourdan - 75014 PARIS

  NOCKE Volker (University of Mannheim) : Consumer Search and Choice Overload

  REY Patrick

  Résumé

  We consider a multiproduct seller facing consumers who must search to learn prices and valuations. The equilibrium features choice overload: the larger the product line, the fewer consumers start searching. We provide conditions under which the seller offers too much or too little variety. We then allow the seller to position products or make recommendations, thereby introducing the possibility of directed search, and show that the seller may find it profitable to maintain some noise. Finally, we study the sellerís incentive to disclose product identity and extend our analysis to that of a platform choosing which sellers to host.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 27 septembre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-13 - Campus Jourdan - 75014 PARIS

  HEMOUS David (UZH) : Climate Change, Directed Innovation and Energy Transition: The Long-run Consequences of the Shale Gas Revolution

  Résumé

  We look at the short and long term effects of a shale gas boom in an economy where energy can be produced with coal, or shale gas, or a clean energy source. In the short run, a shale gas revolution has counteracting effects on CO2 emissions: on the one hand it allows countries to substitute away from coal which in turn reduces CO2 emissions everything else equal; on the other hand the shale gas boom may increase pollution as it increases the scale of aggregate production. In the long run a shale gas boom tends to increase CO2 emissions as it induces Örms to direct innovation away from clean innovation towards shale gas innovation, and we show the possibility of an infinitely delayed switch from shale gas to clean energy. We then derive conditions on the parameters under which, as a result of the above trade-off, the shale gas revolution reduces emissions in the short-run but increases emissions in the long-run. We then use data on electricity production to calibrate the model.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 20 septembre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-13 - Campus Jourdan - 75014 PARIS

  PEITZ Martin (University of Mannheim) : Ad clutter, time use, and media diversity

  ANDERSON Simon P.

  Résumé

  We introduce advertising congestion along with a time-use model of consumer choice among media. Both consumers and advertisers multi-home. Higher equilibrium advertising levels ensue on less popular media platforms because platforms treat consumer attention as a common property resource: smaller platforms internalize less the congestion from advertising and so advertise more. Platform entry raises the ad nuisance price to consumers and diminishes the quality of the consumption experience on all platforms. With symmetric platforms, entry still leads to higher consumer benefits. However, entry of less attractive platforms can increase ad nuisance levels so much that consumers are worse off.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 13 septembre 2021 12:00-13:15

  Salle R1-13 - Campus Jourdan - 75014 PARIS

  JEGARD Martin (PSE) : An Optimal Distribution of Polluting Activities Across Space: An Application to France

  Résumé

  Should the largest cities be the most polluting? On the one hand, spatial concentration of economic activities brings welfare gains through agglomeration economies and increased local real wages. On the other hand, aggregating too much polluting activities in the same place leads to lower air quality and detrimental effects on health and productivity of local workers. Building on a spatial general equilibrium model, featuring endogenous pollution, trade and between-cities migration, I investigate welfare effects of the spatial heterogeneity of local stringencies resulting from current air pollutants regulations. I calibrate the model using French data and show that current emission policies target the most populated cities. As a result, these cities are less polluting and relatively larger than what they would be under a spatially uniform policy stringency. However I also find that taking into account productivity and amenity intrinsic local endowments could lead to higher welfare gains.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 7 juin 2021 12:00-13:15

  online

  STERN Lennart (PSE) : Rewarding countries for pricing carbon emissions: optimal mechanisms under exogenous budgets

  Résumé

  Consider a global institution with an exogenous budget that can re- ward each developing country based on its tax rate on the combustion of a given fossil fuel. I develop a model in which countries differ in the co-benefits that they derive from emissions reductions and also in their aversion to taxing carbon. Assuming a uniform type distribution and linear demand functions for the fossil fuel, I provide an explicit solution for the mechanism that maximises global welfare. It can be implemented through a reward payment function of the following form: each country is rewarded based on how much (if at all) its carbon tax exceeds a cer- tain reference level. The reward payment is quadratic in this amount if the global institution’s budget is small. For large budgets, there is an additional term that is linear in the amount that the carbon tax exceeds the reference level. Empirical calibrations suggest that carbon pricing reward funds could play a valuable role if the world mobilizes substan- tial additional funding for supporting emissions reductions in developing countries.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 31 mai 2021 12:00-13:15

  Online

  YOUNG BRUN Marie (PSE) : The political economy of carbon taxation with vertical and horizontal inequality

  Résumé

  This paper investigates how majority voting over a carbon tax is impacted by the distribution of the tax burden. I introduce both income and urban-rural inequalities in a majority voting framework. To capture heterogeneity in salient carbon-intensive expenditures, such as car fuel or heating energy, urbans and rurals differ by the amount of subsistence polluting good they must consume. The analytical results show (i) polarization of the vote around the urban-rural divide can occur when the necessity consumption of carbon-intensive good is suffciently large; (ii) the majority tax rate can be over- or under-effcient, compared to the pigouvian rate, depending on the relative size of the income and the urban-rural inequalities. Calibrating the model using Household Budget Survey micro-data for France, I investigate how comple- mentary policies affect the vote over carbon tax. Recycling the tax revenue lump-sum has a small but positive effect on the majority voting tax. The adopted tax rises both with a subsidy policy reducing polluting ne- cessity consumption for the rural population e.g. subsidizing effciency-improving heating renovations and with a policy reducing the proportion of rurals. But the former additionally reduces the political polarization around the urban-rural divide, while the later exacerbates it. Future work analyzes whether some European countries are more likely to be politically affected by the distributional impacts of the urban-rural divide and income inequality, using the European data available in the Eurostat HBS dataset.

• Lundi 17 mai 2021 12:00-13:15

  online

  PICCOLO Salvatore (University of Bergamo) : On the Private and Social Value of Consumer Datain Vertically-Integrated Platform Markets

  Co-authors : Jorge Padilla, Helder Vasconcelos

  Résumé

  We characterize and compare the private and social incentives to collect consumer data by a vertically-integrated online intermediary who competes with third-party sellers listed on its platform and is required by regulation to share with rivals all the information it gathers. With linear intermediation fees and price competition, the intermediary over-invests in accuracy compared to the social optimum when the intra-platform competition is sufficiently weak and when demand is not too responsive to quality. By contrast, the intermediary tends to under-invest in accuracy when the intra-platform competition is strong enough, and demand is sufficiently responsive to quality. With quantity competition, the intermediary always over-invests in accuracy. Importantly, when consumers exhibit privacy concerns, the over-investment problem worsens, whereas the under-investment problem mitigates. We also investigate the impact of alternative (non-linear) contractual arrangements.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 10 mai 2021 12:00-13:15

  online

  GOMES Renato (TSE) : Regulating Platform Fees under Price Parity

  Co-author : Andrea Mantovani

  Résumé

  Online marketplaces, such as Amazon, or online travel agencies, such as Booking.com, greatly expand consumer information about market offers, but also raise sellers’ marginal costs by charging high commissions. To prevent show-rooming, platforms adopted price parity clauses, which restrict sellers’ ability to offer lower prices in alternative sales channels. Whether to uphold, reform, or ban price parity has been at the center of the policy debate, but so far little consensus has emerged. In this paper, we investigate a natural alternative to lifting price parity; namely, we study how to optimally cap platforms’ commissions. The optimal cap reflects the Pigouvian precept according to which the platform should not charge fees greater than the externality that its presence generates on other market participants. Employing techniques from extreme-value theory, we are able to express the optimal cap in terms of observable quantities. In an application to online travel agencies, we find that current average fees are welfare increasing only if platforms at least double consumers’ consideration sets (relative to alternative ways of gathering information online). This suggests that, in some markets, regulation capping commissions should bind if optimally set.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 3 mai 2021 12:00-13:15

  online

  FABRA Natalia (uc3m) : Technology Neutral vs. Technology Specific Procurement

  Co-author : Juan Pablo Montero

  Résumé

  An imperfectly-informed regulator needs to procure multiple units of some good (e.g., green energy, market liquidity, pollution reduction, land conservation) that can be produced with heterogeneous technologies at various costs. How should she procure these units? Should she run technology specific or technology neutral auctions? Should she allow for partial separation across technologies (technology banding or minimum technology quo tas)? Should she instead post separate prices for each technology? What are the trade-offs involved? We find that one size does not fit all: the preferred instrument depends on the nature of the available technologies, the extent of information asymmetry regarding their costs, the costs of public funds, and the degree of market power. Using Spanish data on recently deployed renewable energies across the country, we illustrate how our theory can shed light on how to more effectively procure these technologies.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 12 avril 2021 12:00-13:15

  online

  LOGEART Rosanne (PSE) : The Environmental Safeguards Team: An Analysis of NGOs' Advocacy at the European Commission

  Résumé

  This paper sheds light on lobbying activities undertaken by environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the European Union (EU), and in particular at the European Commission (EC). With a general theoretical analysis, I find that when NGOs choose their level of lobbying effort, they can either cooperate between them or choose to differentiate, depending on the form of legislative change functions. I use data from the EU Transparency Register and EC meetings information to empirically determine whether NGOs’ lobbying efforts at the EC are strategic complements or substitutes. I find evidence for cooperation, NGOs’ lobbying efforts reinforce one another. It means that others’ effort increases sufficiently the marginal legislative change due to a given NGO’s effort for this NGO to be willing to increase its effort over subjects for which other NGOs advocate more and to decrease its effort over subjects for which other NGOs advocate less. I also study the selection process of NGOs into the ones attending meeting with EC members and the others. It shows that meeting holding NGOs are bigger and spend more in lobbying activities. However, their financial situation does not impact their specialization, or diversification, level.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 29 mars 2021 12:00-12:30

  LUJALA Paivi (University of Oulu) : Follow the leader: Using videos to make information on resource revenue management more relevant

  BLOCH Francis (PSE) : Follow the leader: Using videos to make information on resource revenue management more relevant

  Résumé

  How can citizens be motivated to demand accountability in the management of public revenues? We use a video survey experiment to provide information, and employ role models to provide encouragement and motivation to act. The experiment focused on petroleum revenue management in Ghana and included over 2300 respondents. Providing information significantly increased satisfaction with current revenue management, though treated participants remained dissatisfied on average. We also found increased intention to demand more accountability through greater debate. The role models had an additional effect: they increased the sense that an individual can influence how petroleum revenues are used; the intention to contact media and to vote differently to ensure better accountability. These changes, however, did not persist, and a follow-up with 925 respondents 2.5 years later later showed few differences between the control and the treated groups. The experiment demonstrates that providing relevant information affects attitudes and planned behavior in the short term, and that role models give valuable encouragement for behavioral change.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 22 mars 2021 12:00-13:15

  online

  HEIDHUES Paul (University of Dusseldorf) : Procrastination Markets

  Résumé

  We develop models of markets with procrastinating consumers when competition operates — or is supposed to operate — both through the initial selection of providers and through the possibility of switching providers. As in other work, consumers fail to switch to better options after signing up with a firm, so at that stage they exert little downward pressure on the prices they pay. Unlike in other work, however, consumers — falsely expecting to do still better in the future — are not keen on starting with the best available offer, so at this stage they do not generate much price competition either. In fact, a competition paradox results: an increase in the number of firms or the intensity of marketing increases the frequency with which a consumer receives switching offers, so it facilitates procrastination and thereby potentially raises prices. By implication, continuous changes in the environment can, through a self-reinforcing entry or marketing process, lead to discontinuous changes in market outcomes. Sign-up deals serve their classically hypothesized role of returning ex-post profits to consumers extremely poorly, while in other senses they exacerbate the failure of price competition.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 15 mars 2021 12:00-13:15

  online

  AMBER Stefan (TSE) : Environmental markets exacerbate inequalities

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 8 mars 2021 12:00-13:30

  Online

  CHANCEL Lucas : Global carbon inequality

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 1er mars 2021 12:00-13:15

  online

  MOLINA Hugo (INRAE) : Buyer Alliances in Vertically Related Markets

  Résumé

  Alliances of buyers to negotiate input prices with suppliers are commonplace. Using pre- and post-alliances data on household purchases of bottled water, I develop a struc tural model of bilateral oligopoly to estimate the effects of alliances formed by retailers on their bargaining power vis-à-vis manufacturers and retail prices paid by consumers. Results provide evidence of a countervailing buyer power effect that reduces retail prices by roughly 7%. Exploring determinants of buyer power, I find that changes in retailers’ bargaining ability play an important role in the countervailing force exerted by buyer alliances which, absent this effect, would have harmed retailers.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 14 décembre 2020 12:00-13:00

  https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09

  REGUANT Mar (Northwestern) : *

• Lundi 7 décembre 2020 12:00-13:00

  https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09

  SCHMUTZLER Armin (UZH) : Killer Acquisitions and Beyond: Policy Effects on Innovation Strategies

  Igor Letina, Regina Seibel

  Résumé

  This paper provides a theory of strategic innovation project choice by incumbents and start-ups. We show that prohibiting killer acquisitions strictly reduces the variety of innovation projects. By contrast, we find that prohibiting other acquisitions only has a weakly negative innovation effect, and we provide conditions under which the effect is zero. Furthermore, for both killer and other acquisitions, we identify market conditions under which the innovation effect is small, so that prohibiting acquisitions to enhance competition would be justified.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 30 novembre 2020 12:00-13:00

  https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09

  RIEDEL Nadine (University of Münster) : Cross-Border Effects of R&D Tax Incentives

  Résumé

  Existing evidence shows that R&D tax incentives boost countries' private sector R&D. As multinational enterprises (MNEs) account for nearly all private sector innovations, it is unclear, however, whether firms engage in genuinely new R&D or whether R&D is reallocated across borders. Drawing on data on unconsolidated R&D activity of MNEs in Europe, we show that R&D tax incentives serve as beggar-thy-neighbor instruments: More generous tax incentives in one country increase MNEs' R&D investments in affiliates located there, while lowering R&D investments in affiliates of the same MNE group located in other countries. Globally, firms hardly respond to changed R\&D tax incentives.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 23 novembre 2020 12:00-13:00

  https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09

  ALLAIN Marie-Laure (CREST) : The Effect of Input Price Discrimination on Retail Prices: Theory and Evidence from France.

  Résumé

  We develop a model with competing retailers selling both national brand and private label products to analyze the effect of a ban on input price discrimination on final prices, in a secret contracting environment. We show that, when discrim- ination is allowed, tariffs are cost-based. A a ban on input price discrimination affects the input price of national brand products and leaves that of private label products unaffected. A reform authorizing input price discrimination took place in France in 2008 and our paper uses this natural experiment to test our predic- tions. Using a consumer panel dataset of food prices in France over the period 2006-2010, we run a difference-in-differences analysis and show that on average the reform has led to a decrease in prices of national brands by 3.36% compared to private labels.

• Lundi 16 novembre 2020 12:00-13:00

  https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09

  ESPINOSA Romain (CNRS) : Moderate vs. Radical NGOs

  Résumé

  NGOs often vary in terms of how radical they are. In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of NGO discourses in bringing about social change. We focus on animal advocacy: welfarist NGOs primarily seek to improve the conditions in which animals are raised and reduce meat consumption, while abolitionist NGOs categorically reject animal use and call for a vegan society. We design an experiment to study the respective impact of welfarist and abolitionist discourses on participants’ beliefs regarding pro-meat justifications and their actions, namely their propensity to engage in the short-run in animal welfare (charity donation, petition against intensive farming) and plant-based diets (subscription to a newsletter promoting plant-based diets, petition supporting vegetarian meals). We first show that both welfarist and abolitionist discourses significantly undermine participants’ pro-meat justifications. Second, the welfarist discourse does not significantly affect participants’ actions, while we detect a potential backlash effect of the abolitionist discourse. We show that the NGOs’ positive standard effect on actions through the change in beliefs is outweighed by a negative behavioral response to the discourses (reactance effect). Last, greater public-good contributions are associated with greater engagement in animal welfare in the presence of an NGO discourse.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 9 novembre 2020 15:00-16:00

  https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09

  BIGLAISER Gary (UNC) : Should I stay or should I go? Migrating away from an incumbent platform

• Lundi 19 octobre 2020 17:30-18:30

  https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09

  HSIANG Solomon (Berkeley) : Accounting for Unobservable Heterogeneity in Cross Section Using Spatial First Differences

  Hannah Druckenmiller

  Résumé

  We develop a simple cross-sectional research design to identify causal effects that is robust to unobservable heterogeneity. When many observational units are dense in physical space, it may be sufficient to regress the “spatial first differences” (SFD) of the outcome on the treatment and omit all covariates. This approach is conceptually similar to first differencing approaches in time-series or panel models, except the index for time is replaced with an index for locations in space. The SFD design identifies plausibly causal effects, even when no instruments are available, so long as local changes in the treatment and unobservable confounders are not systematically correlated between immediately adjacent neighbors. We demonstrate the SFD approach by recovering new cross-sectional estimates for the effects of time-invariant geographic factors, soil and climate, on long-run average crop productivities across US counties — relationships that are notoriously confounded by unobservables but crucial for guiding economic decisions, such as land management and climate policy.

• Lundi 12 octobre 2020 12:00-13:00

  https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09

  LEROUTIER Marion (PSE) : The Short-Run Effects of Maritime Traffic on Air Pollution and Health: evidence from Marseille, France

  Leo Zabrocki and Marie Abele Bind

  Résumé

  Maritime traffic is expected to increase in the coming years due to the growth in international trade and global tourism. Today's residents of port cities benefit from the economic activity induced by maritime activities, but they also suffer from local air pollution externalities, which have triggered local public campaigns and media attention in the recent period. How much does maritime traffic contribute to local air pollution and health damages? We address this question using an exact matching procedure suited to time series data from Marseille, France's largest port city. We gathered detailed hourly and daily data on boat traffic, weather, air pollution, mortality and emergency admissions in Marseille. We find that nitrogen dioxide and particulate matters concentrations are on average 2-3\% higher than the baseline average in hours following a boat arrival or departure at the port located in the city center, compared to comparable hours with no boat traffic. The results seem to be driven by passenger boats rather than freight boats. At the daily level yet, we failed to detect a significant impact of boat traffic on short-term measures of cardio-vascular and respiratory mortality and morbidity. Future research is needed to investigate impacts at the neighborhood-level, for more subtle morbidity outcomes and in the longer term.

• Lundi 5 octobre 2020 17:30-18:30

  https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09

  MENG Kyle (UCSB) : Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate

  Jonathan I. Dingel Chicago Booth & NBER, Solomon M. Hsiang UC Berkeley & NBER

  Résumé

  This paper shows that greater global spatial correlation of productivities can increase crosscountry welfare dispersion by increasing the correlation between a country’s productivity and its gains from trade. We causally validate this prediction using a global climatic phenomenon as a natural experiment. We ?nd that gains from trade in cereals over the last half-century were larger for more productive countries and smaller for less productive countries when cereal productivity was more spatially correlated. Incorporating this role for spatial interdependence into a projection of climate-change impacts raises projected international inequality, with higher welfare losses across most of Africa.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 21 septembre 2020 12:00-13:00

  online

  HARSTAD Bard (University of Oslo) : THE CONSERVATION MULTIPLIER

  Résumé

  Every government that controls an exhaustible resource must decide whether toexploit it or to conserve and thereby let the subsequent government decide whetherto exploit or conserve. This paper develops a model of this situation and showswhen a small probability that some future government will exploit has a multipliere§ect on earlier decisions. The multiplier can be taken advantage of by a lobbypaying for exploitation, or by a donor compensating for conservation. The analysisalso uncovers when compensations are optimally o§ered to the president, the partyin power, the general public, or to the lobby group.

• Lundi 7 septembre 2020 12:00-13:00

  online

  SCHUBERT Katheline (Université Paris 1, PSE) : Prevention and Mitigation of Epidemics: Biodiversity Conservation and Confinement Policies

  E. Augeraud-Véron, G. Fabbbri

  Résumé

  This paper presents a first model integrating the relation between biodiversity loss and zoonose pandemic risks in a general equilibrium dynamic economic set-up. The occurrence of pandemics is modeled as Poissonian leaps in economic variables. The planner can intervene in the economic and epidemiological dynamics in two ways: first (prevention), by deciding to preserve a greater quantity of biodiversity, thus decreasing the probability of a pandemic occurring, and second (mitigation), by reducing the death toll through a confinement policy. The class of social welfare functional considered has, as polar cases, a total utilitarian and an average utilitarian specifications. It implicitly considers, at the same time, the effects of policies on mortality and on the productive capacity of the country. Thanks to the Epstein-Zin specification of preferences, we disantangle risk aversion and fluctuation aversion. The model is explicitly solved and the optimal policy completely described. The qualitative dependence of the optimal policy on natural, productivity and preference parameters is discussed. In particular the optimal lockdown is shown to be more severe in societies valuing more human life, and the optimal biodiversity conservation is shown to be more relevant for more “forward looking” societies, with a small discount rate and a high degree of altruism towards individuals of future generations. We also show that societies accepting a large welfare loss to mitigate the pandemics are also societies doing a lot of prevention. After calibrating the model with COVID-19 pandemic data we compare the mitigation efforts predicted by the model with those of the recent literature and we study the optimal prevention-mitigation policy mix.

• Lundi 22 juin 2020 12:00-13:00

  online

  MELINDI-GHIDI Paolo (Université de Nanterre) : Particularism, dominant minorities and institutional change

  Raouf Boucekkine, Rodolphe Desbordes

  Résumé

  We develop a theory of institutional transition from dictatorship to minority dominant-based regimes in resource-dependent economies. We depart from the standard political transition framework à la Acemoglu-Robinson in four essential ways: (i) population is heterogeneous, there is a minority/majority split, heterogeneity being generic, simply reflecting subgroup size; (ii) there is no median voter in the post-dictatorship period, political and economic competition is favorable to the minority (fiscal particularism); (iii) (windfall) natural resources are introduced, and (iv) we distinguish between labor income and resources, and labor supply is endogenous. We first document empirically fiscal particularism, its connection with natural resource endowment, and the impact of both on revolutionary bursts. Second, we construct a full-fledged model incorporating the four characteristics outlined above. We show, among others, that polarization is a sufficient condition for revolutions, while natural resource rents are not although they do matter when polarization is low. In agreement with our empirical facts, countries engaging in revolutions tend to be slightly less resource-rich than other countries. We also outline the interplay between natural resource rents, polarization and labor market conditions at the dawn of institutional change. Our theory is appropriate to understand the institutional dynamics of highly homogeneous resource-rich countries which, after a post-independence autocratic regime, turn to be dominated by minorities.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 15 juin 2020 15:00-16:00

  Online

  MIKLOS-THAL Jeanine (University of Rochester) : Opportunism in Multilateral Vertical Contracting: A Dynamic Perspective

  Jihwan Do (University of Rochester)

  Résumé

  This paper proposes a dynamic approach to modeling opportunism in vertical contracting between an upstream monopolist and competing downstream firms. Unlike previous literature on opportunism which has focused on games in which the upstream firm makes simultaneous secret offers to the downstream firms, we model opportunism as a consequence of recontracting in an infinite-horizon continuous-time model. We find that the extent of opportunism depends on the absolute and relative reaction speeds of the different supplier-retailer pairs and on the firms' discount rate. Asymmetries in reaction speeds across supplier-retailer pairs can alleviate the opportunism problem.

• Lundi 8 juin 2020 14:00-15:00

  online

  CHABE-FERRET Sylvain (TSE) : Water Quality, Policy Diffusion Effects and Farmers' Behavior

  Résumé

  The nitrogen cycle is one of the most perturbed geo-chemical cycles on earth. Human activity, mainly through intensive farming, releases nitrogen by-products such as nitrates and ammonium in the environment where they have wide ranging impacts on human health, biodiversity and climate change. One of the earliest and most ambitious regulation of nitrogen use in the world is the EU Nitrate Directive. The EU Nitrate Directive not only sets limitations on the amount and timing of application of nitrogen but also imposes the adoption of modern tools of nitrogen management in an effort to enhance nitrogen use efficiency. We leverage the geographical and temporal variation in the implementation of the Nitrate Directive to estimate its causal effects on water quality and biodiversity, and on farmers' practices, Nitrogen Use Efficiency, productivity and profits in a Difference In Difference (DID) framework. We modify the DID estimator to account for the existence of diffusion effects along river streams and for the non-point source nature of pollution by nitrates. We find that the EU Nitrate Directive reduced the concentration of nitrates in surface water by 1.23 milligrams per liter, a decrease of 8%. We find a clear dose-response relationship, with higher impacts where more of the upstream area is covered by the Directive. We also find that other biochemical indicators, as well as biodiversity, as measured by the number of fish and fish species, also improved thanks to the Directive. In ongoing work, we find suggestive evidence that the Directive managed to improve farmers' nitrogen use efficiency and productivity and did not decrease their profits.

• Lundi 25 mai 2020 14:00-15:00

  online

  MELINDI-GHIDI Paolo (Université de Nanterre) : Particularism, dominant minorities and institutional change

  Raouf Boucekkine, Rodolphe Desbordes

  Résumé

  We develop a theory of institutional transition from dictatorship to minority dominant-based regimes in resource-dependent economies. We depart from the standard political transition framework à la Acemoglu-Robinson in four essential ways: (i) population is heterogeneous, there is a minority/majority split, heterogeneity being generic, simply reflecting subgroup size; (ii) there is no median voter in the post-dictatorship period, political and economic competition is favorable to the minority (fiscal particularism); (iii) (windfall) natural resources are introduced, and (iv) we distinguish between labor income and resources, and labor supply is endogenous. We first document empirically fiscal particularism, its connection with natural resource endowment, and the impact of both on revolutionary bursts. Second, we construct a full-fledged model incorporating the four characteristics outlined above. We show, among others, that polarization is a sufficient condition for revolutions, while natural resource rents are not although they do matter when polarization is low. In agreement with our empirical facts, countries engaging in revolutions tend to be slightly less resource-rich than other countries. We also outline the interplay between natural resource rents, polarization and labor market conditions at the dawn of institutional change. Our theory is appropriate to understand the institutional dynamics of highly homogeneous resource-rich countries which, after a post-independence autocratic regime, turn to be dominated by minorities.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 18 mai 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  CRAWFORD Gregory (UZH) : ANNULE

• Lundi 11 mai 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  PICCOLO Salvatore (University of Bergamo) : ANNULE

• Lundi 4 mai 2020 14:00-15:00

  ANNULE

  SOVINSKY Michelle (University of Manheim) : ANNULE - Internet (Power) to the People: The Impact of Demand-side Subsidies in Colombia

  Résumé

  Finding strategies to bridge the digital divide has been a major goal of public policy over the last decades. Accordingly, multiple demand-side interventions have been implemented to decrease Internet adoption barriers. In this paper, we assess the impact on internet adoption from a pricing subsidy to low-income households implemented by the Colombian government during the period 2012-2014. This is not a straightforward exercise as not all consumers in a small geographic region are offered the same plans and, more prohibitively, data on the size of the targeted market are not available. We develop a method that allows us to estimate a structural demand model of household preferences for Internet services and to gauge the effects of the subsidy policy while overcoming these limitations. We find that households present heterogeneity with respect to price sensitivity and that their adoption decisions are driven by the type of ISP (i.e., national or local provider) and the type of service (i.e., broadband or narrowband). We find that the price subsidy (of 12%) resulted in a 33% point increase in internet adoption among low-income consumers. The largest impact was in markets that had higher average coverage prior to the subsidy. Counterfactual results show that increasing the reliability of the service would increase adoption by almost as much as a price subsidy and would be most beneficial to households in less technically savvy markets. Our findings suggest that pricing subsidies are effective in closing the digital divide, but that policies focused on increasing the reliability of services are equally important.

• Lundi 27 avril 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  JEGARD Martin (PSE) : ANNULE

• Lundi 20 avril 2020 14:00-15:00

  Zoom

  STOSTAD Morten (PSE) : Inequality as an Externality: Consequences for Tax Design

  Résumé

  This paper proposes to treat inequality as an economic externality. Doing so allows us to introduce the societal effects of income inequality into simple welfarist models, wherein these effects are generally omitted. Novel policy implications are illustrated through an optimal income taxation model: resulting optimal income tax rates become unambiguously more progressive with a negative inequality externality, top optimal tax rates are shown to be particularly susceptible to the inequality externality, and optimal rates above the revenue-maximizing Laffer rate are observed. Our findings indicate that the magnitude of the inequality externality could be a significant factor in optimal policy design.

• Lundi 30 mars 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  CALEL Raphaël (Georgetown University) : ANNULE

• Lundi 23 mars 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  LAUKKANEN Marita (VATT) : ANNULE. Energy Taxes and Manufacturing Firm Performance: Evidence from Finland's Green Tax Reform

  Kimmo Ollikka

  Résumé

  This paper seeks to evaluate the effect of energy taxes on the economic and environmental performance of manufacturing firms. We examine these issues in the context of Finland’s green energy tax reform that substantially increased the excise taxes on energy inputs, with the aim of promoting energy efficiency and reducing CO2-emissions. The preparation of the tax reform was accompanied by controversy over the predicted effects on manufacturing firm competitiveness, with the consequence that firms above a certain energy tax threshold were granted an exemption from energy taxes. While firms below the threshold pay energy taxes in full, firms above the threshold are refunded up to 85 percent of their energy taxes. Exempt and non-exempt firms, and in particular plants within these firms, can be otherwise very similar. The exemption rule allows us to compare plants that operate in the same manufacturing sectors and have otherwise similar history, but have been subject to different effective tax rates since the tax reform. Overall the results are most compatible with no important effect of the energy tax refund on employees, wages or energy use on average, and, if anything, a negative impact on gross output and energy efficiency.

• Lundi 16 mars 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  FISHMAN Arthur (Bar-Ilan University) : ANNULE

• Lundi 9 mars 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  SCHLENKER Wolfram (Columbia University) : Coase, Hotelling and Pigou: The Incidence of a Carbon Tax and CO2 Emissions

  Geoffrey Heal

  Résumé

  A carbon tax has been widely discussed as a way of reducing fossil fuel use and mitigating climate change, generally in a static framework. Unlike standard goods that can be produced, oil is an exhaustible resource. Parts of its price reflects scarcity rents, i.e., the fact that there is limited availability. We highlight important dynamic aspects of a global carbon tax, which will reallocate consumption through time: some of the initial reduction in consumption will be offset through higher consumption later on. Only reserves with high enough extraction cost will be priced out of the market. Using data from a large proprietary database of field-level oil data, we show that carbon prices even as high as 200 dollars per ton of CO2 will only reduce cumulative emissions from oil by 4% as the supply curve is very steep for high oil prices and few reserves drop out. The supply curve flattens out for lower price, and the effect of an increased carbon tax becomes larger. For example, a carbon price of 600 dollars would reduce cumulative emissions by 60%. On the flip side, a global cap and trade system that limits global extraction by a modest amount like 4% expropriates a large fraction of scarcity rents and would imply a high permit price of $200. The tax incidence varies over time: initially, about 75% of the carbon price will be passed on to consumers, but this share declines through time and even becomes negative as oil prices will drop in future years relative to a case of no carbon tax. The net present value of producer and consumer surplus decrease by roughly equal amounts, which are almost entirely offset by increased tax revenues.

• Lundi 2 mars 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  RHODES Andrew (TSE) : Dynamic Consumer Search

  Résumé

  We consider a model in which firms sell differentiated products, and consumers are interested in buying repeatedly over time but need to search for price and product information. Firms and consumers turn over at an exogenous rate. We show that provided the search cost is not too large, the market exhibits pure strategy price dispersion. Specifically, older firms charge higher prices because they face a larger and `better-matched' demand. The fact that sellers gradually raise their prices over time also leads to rich consumer search and purchase dynamics. For example, consumers may initially search a lot for a product, return to the seller and buy for several periods, but then faced with successive price increases quit the firm and search again for a new product. We also provide conditions under which the ability of sellers to contact past customers and offer them personalized prices leads to higher consumer surplus.

• Lundi 24 février 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  ORSET Caroline (AgroParisTech) : Innovation, information, lobby and tort law under uncertainty

  Julien Jacob (Université de Strasbourg, BETA)

  Résumé

  Recent environmental policies favor the 'pollutant-payer' Principle. This Principle points out the pollutant financial liability for eventual incident induced by its activities. Investing in technological innovations generates uncertainty on the future returns, as well as on the damages that such innovations could involve and on the cost to pay in case of troubles. To reduce this uncertainty, the firm has the opportunity to acquire information, for example through research activities, on its project's potential consequences on human health and on the environment. However, in their efforts to obtain and/or to maintain a marketing authorization with the Regulator affairs, firms may develop specific strategies to exploit scientific uncertainty. They may produce favorable scientific findings. In case of accident, the firm having this type of behavior can be legally charged. We then analyze whether liability rules and tort law incentive the firm both to invest in research and development in order to reduce the uncertainty and to decrease miscommunication on the results. We find that the firm's decision to stop or continue to sell its product depends on the levels of precision of the exogenous and of the endogenous information she receives, and on the ratio between marginal benefit and damages from maintaining the product in the future. We then understand that the firm's decision to adopt a lobby behavior depends on its expected payoff, its level of research, and its belief being sentenced when she has chosen to adopt a lobby behavior. Finally, we clarify the effect of the penal liability on the firm's investment in research decision. The level of the fine pushes the firm to reduce its uncertainty about the risk of accident. However, if she perceives that the risk of accident is high, its investment in research will decrease with the level of the fine for maintaining its expected payoff.

• Lundi 10 février 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  MOLINA Hugo (INRAE) : Buyer Alliances in Vertically Related Markets - ANNULE

  Résumé

  Alliances of buyers to negotiate input prices with suppliers have become commonplace in many industries. Using pre- and post-alliances data on household purchases of bottled water, I develop a structural model of bilateral oligopoly to estimate the effects of buyer alliances formed by retailers on the bargaining power of firms and retail prices paid by consumers. Results provide evidence of a countervailing buyer power effect that reduces retail prices by roughly 7%. Exploring determinants of buyer power, I find that changes in firms’ bargaining ability play an important role in the countervailing force exerted by buyer alliances which, absent this effect, may harm retailers.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 3 février 2020 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  FRANÇOIS Manon (PSE) : Profit shifting and destination-based taxes

  Résumé

  We study the impact of destination-based cash-flow taxation on tax competition and on adoption spillovers in a model with asymmetric countries. We build a model with endogenous tax rates and endogenous profit shifting in which countries choose between source-based and destination-based taxation. We find that tax competition is eliminated only if both countries use destination-based taxes and is reduced if one country unilaterally adopts destination-based taxes. We also find that countries do not have a clear incentive to be the first to adopt destination-based taxes but that a universal adoption is preferred to a unilateral adoption.

• Lundi 16 décembre 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-14, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  LUENGO Andres (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana) : Environmental Misallocation in the Copper Industry

  Résumé

  We use mine-level data from the international copper industry to quantify environmental misallocation. We define this concept as the ratio between the observed carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the industry and the level reached by a social planner that allocate the observed output across mines so as to minimize emissions, conditional on the current state of the technology and some well-defined extraction rules. We find that CO2 emissions derived from the world copper industry could be reduced by 47% under the planner's allocation. We also find that the latter allocation of output would bring down production costs by 24% at the aggregate level. Our results suggest that a cleaner environment is not necessarily tied to lower levels of productive efficiency.

• Lundi 9 décembre 2019

  THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY TRANSITION

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 2 décembre 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  SABATINO Lorien (Politecnico di Torino) : Fast Internet and Firm Creation: Evidence from Italy

  Résumé

  In this paper we provide new empirical evidence on the impact of ultra-fast broadband deployment on local growth, and in particular on local new business establishment. We leverage on a unique dataset collecting data on broadband coverage and firm creation for every Italian municipality over the period 2013-2018. Our identification strategy relies on the distance between municipalities and the closest telephone exchange with optical line terminal (OLT). Preliminary results show that OLS estimates are upward biased, as they overestimate the impact of ultra-fast broadband deployment on firm establishment. Results depend crucially on the industrial sector we consider: technology-intensive sectors such as ICT and scientific activities are strongly positively affected by the introduction of new broadband infrastructure, while more traditional sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing are not significantly affected by high-speed connections. Taken together, our results highlight the heterogeneous effects of new broadband technologies on local business establishment.

• Lundi 25 novembre 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  DAUBANES Julien (University of Geneva (GSEM) and MIT (CEEPR)) : Green finance and climate policy

  Jean-Charles-Rochet: University of Geneva (SFI, GSEM) and MIT (Sloan)

  Résumé

  A rapidly increasing amount of investments commit firms to undertake climate-friendly projects. Recent empirical evidence shows that certified green bonds have a significant impact on CO2 emissions. Yet little is known about the economic mechanisms of green finance and its possible contribution to climate policy. This paper develops the first formal analysis of green finance as a climate policy instrument. We examine firms that undertake green and conventional projects, and finance the former through green bonds. Green projects emit less CO2, but they entail costs which stock investors do not directly observe. Our theory holds that green bonds allow firms to signal to stock investors their otherwise unobservable efficiency at controlling their CO2 emissions. Our model consistently accounts for stylized facts on the recent development of green finance. It explains why firms benefit from green bonds even though these bonds' yield spread is small in practice compared to conventional bonds. The analysis has direct implications for the effective design of climate policy. Like carbon taxation, green finance induces firms to undertake more green projects at the expense of conventional ones. It may further amplify the effect of carbon taxation. Moreover, unlike standard voluntary programs, green finance induces firms to abandon their least efficient conventional projects.

• Lundi 21 octobre 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  RUIZ Celia (PSE) : Agglomeration, Transport and Productivity: Evidence from Toulouse Metropolitan Area

  Résumé

  Economic activity tends to be highly concentrated. These agglomeration or concentration forms are driven by spatial externalities on productivity, and are named agglomeration externalities. Transport improvements - by reducing the interaction cost between economic agents placed in different locations - can extend the geographic scope of these externalities on productivity. Furthermore, transport exposure also affects productivity directly as it may bring firm and employee relocations by making some places more attractive than others. Therefore, the objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to estimate the extent of agglomeration externalities at the urban scale, and secondly, to estimate the - direct and indirect - impact of transport exposure on productivity, using very fine georeferenced data on the road and public transport networks, and on more than one million employees working in a number of heterogeneous zones within Toulouse metropolitan area. This constitutes a valuable input for an urban planner who wants to maximize city’s wealth by identifying the disaggregated productivity impact of new transport infrastructure. To achieve these goals, we first estimate productivity effects of agglomeration and transport measures implementing a wage determination model using very disaggregated and georeferenced data of a sample of employees working in Toulouse in 2013 and 2015. We perform a two stage estimation approach (Combes et al. (2008)). The first stage of the regression allows us to assess the importance of industry effects and sector concentration characteristics against those highlighting true productivity differences across zones. In the second stage of the regression, we explain those productivity differences across zones - represented by the estimated first stage’s area-year fixed effects – by our local factors of interest: local employment density, and local transport exposure measures. Finally, and to have a full representation of transport impacts, we investigate the effect of transport exposure on local employment density. Our results suggest that out transport exposure measures have a substantial and significant effect on local productivity and local employment density.

• Lundi 14 octobre 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  NEWMAN Andy (Boston University) : Competing for a Quiet Life: An Organizational Theory of Market Structure

  Patrick Legros, Zsolt Udvari

  Résumé

  We develop a property-rights model of endogenous market structure in which contracting imperfections, rather than scale economies, emerge as the source of market power. Production of a homogenous good is carried out by substitutable, incentive-constrained teams that can stand alone as perfect competitors or sell their assets to profit-motivated HQs, thereby becoming subordinate members of their firms. HQs subsequently Cournot compete in the product market. Team output and costs aggregate linearly within and across firms, there are no diseconomies of HQ ownership, and HQs are abundant. A fundamental hold-out problem places lower and upper bounds on the degree of concentration. The equilibrium market structure is typically an oligopoly, sometimes with a competitive fringe. Concentration may increase with the size of the market, unlike in the standard Cournot entry model. Entry barriers and competition policy may have distinct effects depending on the demand regime, which has implications for optimal policy in rich vs. developing countries.

• Lundi 7 octobre 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  LISKI Matti (Aalto University) : Do consumers gain when new technologies improve the efficiency of goods trade?

  Ivo Vehviläinen

  Résumé

  This paper points out the basic price theory predictions for the consumer welfare gain from new technologies that improve the efficiency of goods trade. Micro-data on over 140 million of bids from three electricity markets reveals strikingly different consumer welfare impacts from new technologies. Consistent with the theory, the results can be explained by structural differences in excess demand: its convexity (concavity) is a determinant of consumers’ gain (loss).

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 30 septembre 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  REILEY David (University of California - Berkeley) : Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising:A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio

  Jason Huang, Nickolai M. Riabov

  Résumé

  Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising:A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet RadioJason HuangDavid H. ReileyNickolai M. Riabov?April 21, 2018AbstractA randomized experiment with almost 35 million Pandora listeners enables us to measure the sensi-tivity of consumers to advertising, an important topic of study in the era of ad-supported digital contentprovision. The experiment randomized listeners into nine treatment groups, each of which received adifferent level of audio advertising interrupting their music listening, with the highest treatment groupreceiving more than twice as many ads as the lowest treatment group. By keeping consistent treatmentassignment for 21 months, we are able to measure long-run demand effects, with three times as muchad-load sensitivity as we would have obtained if we had run a month-long experiment. We estimatea demand curve that is strikingly linear, with the number of hours listened decreasing linearly in thenumber of ads per hour (also known as the price of ad-supported listening). We also show the negativeimpact on the number of days listened and on the probability of listening at all in the final month. Us-ing an experimental design that separately varies the number of commercial interruptions per hour andthe number of ads per commercial interruption, we find that neither makes much difference to listenersbeyond their impact on the total number of ads per hour. Lastly, we find that increased ad load causesa significant increase in the number of paid ad-free subscriptions to Pandora, particularly among olderlisteners.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 23 septembre 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  SCHÜTZ Rafael : All-Pay Oligopolies: Price Competition with Unobservable Inventory Choices

  Joao Montez

  Résumé

  We study production-in-advance in a setting where firms first source inventories that remain unobservable to rivals, and then simultaneously set prices. In the unique equilibrium, each firm occasionally holds a sale relative to its reference price, resulting in firms sometimes being left with unsold inventory. In the limit as inventory costs become fully recoverable, the equilibrium converges to an equilibrium of the game where firms only choose prices and produce to order - the associated Bertrand game (examples of such games include fully-asymmetric clearinghouse models). Thus, away from that limit, our work generalizes Bertrand-type equilibria to production in advance, and challenges the commonly-held view associating production in advance with Cournot outcomes. The analysis involves, as an intermediate step, mapping the price-inventory game into an asymmetric all-pay contest with outside options and non-monotonic winning and losing functions. We lay out applications to taxation, merger analysis, information sharing, ex-ante investments, and vertical relations.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 16 septembre 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, camppus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  MANARESI Francesco (Bank of Italy) : Born in Hard Times: Startups and Intangible Capital During the Financial Crisis

  Résumé

  We show that the credit crunch of 2007-2013 favoured the adoption by startups of more efficient, intangible-intensive technologies. Using data for the universe of Italian corporations, we document that the cohorts of firms born during the crisis significantly increased their share of intangible capital relative to both incumbents and comparable young firms born before the crisis. Moreover, the entry rates of intangible-intensive startups decreased by less than those of other firms. We estimate that this selection is directly linked to the tightening of credit conditions. We use a firm dynamics model to unveil the mechanism behind these patterns. Intangible goods make firms more efficient and profitable, reducing their demand of total capital and, crucially, their leverage at entry: this increases their resiliency to a financial shock. In the aggregate, a credit tightening changes the composition of new cohorts in favor of intangible-intensive producers, resulting in a persistent increase in their intangible capital accumulation.

• Lundi 24 juin 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  PARENTI Mathieu (Université Libre de Bruxelles) : Sales and Markup Dispersion: Theory and Empirics

  Monika Mrazova and J. Peter Neary

  Résumé

  We characterize the analytic relationship between the distributions of two variables linked by a structural model. We then highlight four theoretical applications to models of heterogeneous firms in monopolistic competition. First, we ask which demand func- tions are consistent with productivity and sales distributions having the same form (whether Pareto, lognormal, or Fr ?echet) in the cross section. The answer is a new “CREMR” demand function (Constant Revenue Elasticity of Marginal Revenue). Sec- ond, we show that CREMR is also necessary and sufficient for Gibrat’s Law to hold over time. Third, we use our methodology to quantify misallocation at the microeco- nomic level (both in general and in the special CREMR case). Fourth, we characterize the distribution of markups implied by any assumptions on demand and productivity. Finally, we show in an empirical application using Indian firm-level data on sales and markups that CREMR-based distributions yield a parsimonious fit superior to many widely-used alternatives.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 27 mai 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  KALKUHL Matthias (University of Potsdam) : The Impact of Climate Conditions on Economic Production. Evidence from a Global Panel of Regions

  Wenz Leonie

  Résumé

  We estimate the impacts of climate on economic growth using Gross Regional Product (GRP) for more than 1,500 regions in 77 countries. In temperate and tropical climates, annual temperature shocks reduce GRP whereas they increase GRP in cold climates. With respect to long-term climate conditions, one degree of temperature increase reduces output by 2-3%. The effect of annual or long-term precipitation is found to be less important and less robust among specifications. For projected global warming of 4°C until 2100, we find that regions lose 9\% of economic output on average and more than 20% of output in tropical regions.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 20 mai 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  BIANCINI Sara (Université de Cergy) : Mission Drift in Microcredit: A Contract Theory Approach

  David Ettinger, Baptiste Venet

  Résumé

  We analyze the relationship between Micro nance Institutions (MFIs) and external funding institutions, with the aim of contributing to the debate on mission drift (the tendency for MFIs to lend money to wealthier borrower rather than to the very poor). We suggest that funding institutions build incentives for MFIs to choose the adequate share of poorer borrowers and to exert effort to increase the quality of the funded projects. We show that asymmetric information on both the effort level and its cost may increase the share of richer borrowers. However the unobservability of the cost of effort has an ambiguous effect. It pushes efficient MFIs to serve a higher share of poorer borrowers, while less efficient ones decrease their poor outreach. JEL codes: O12, O16, G21. Keywords: Micro nance, Funding Institutions, Mission Drift, Contract Theory.

• Lundi 13 mai 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  LEROUTIER Marion (PSE) : Carbon Pricing and Power Sector Decarbonisation: Evidence from the UK

  Résumé

  The electricity and heat generation sector represents about 40 % of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2016. Policy-makers have implemented a variety of instru- ments to decarbonise their power sector. This paper examines the UK Carbon Price Floor (CPF), a novel carbon pricing instrument implemented in the United Kingdom in 2013. After describing the potential mechanisms behind the recent UK power sector decarbonisation, I apply the synthetic control method on country-level data to estimate the impact of the CPF on per capita emissions. I discuss the importance of potential confounders and the amount of net electricity imports imputable to the policy. De- pending on the speci_cation, the abatement associated with the introduction of the CPF range from 104 to 156 millions tons of equivalent CO2 over the 2013-2017 period. This implies a reduction of between 39% and 48% of total power sector emissions by 2017. Several placebo tests suggest that these estimates capture a causal impact. This paper shows that a carbon levy on high-emitting inputs used for electricity generation can lead to successful decarbonisation.

• Lundi 6 mai 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  FABRE Adrien : Can We Reconcile French People with the Carbon Tax? Disentangling Beliefs from Preferences

  Thomas Douenne

  Résumé

  Using anewsurvey and National households’surveydata, we investigate French perception over carbon taxation. We find that French people largely reject a tax and dividend policy where revenues of the tax would be redistributed uniformly. However, their perception about the properties of the tax are biased: people overestimate the negative impact on their purchasing power, wrongly think the scheme is regressive, and do no tperceive it as environmentally effective. Our econometric analysis shows that correcting these three bias would suffice to generate majority acceptance. Yet, we find that people’s beliefs are persistent and their revisions biased towards pessimism, so that only few can be convinced.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 15 avril 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  CALZOLARI Giacomo (European University Institute) : Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing and Collusion

  Emilio Calvano,Vincenzo Denicolò and Sergio Pastorello

  Résumé

  Pricing algorithms are increasingly replacing human decision making in real marketplaces. To inform the competition policy debate on possible consequences, we run experiments with pricing algorithms powered by Artificial Intelligence in controlled environments (computer simulations). In particular, we study the interaction among a number of Q-learning algorithms in the context of a workhorse oligopoly model of price competition with Logit demand and constant marginal costs. We show that the algorithms consistently learn to charge supra-competitive prices, without communicating with each other. The high prices are sustained by classical collusive strategies with a finite punishment phase followed by a gradual return to cooperation. This finding is robust to asymmetries in cost or demand and to changes in the number of players.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 8 avril 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  KASSAB Dina (University of Cairo) : Agree to Disagree ? Making sense of vagueness in International Environmental Agreements

  Résumé

  International Environmental Agreements (IEA) tend to bear a high degree of vagueness. They are expressed in terms of levels of standards, with a permitted degree of discretion to the signatories, rather than a specific policy commitment. Why would negotiators craft vague agreements that risk non-compliance ? Using a game-theoretic model, where information regarding institutional capacities of potential participants is asymmetric, I argue that vagueness offers the ability to manage uncertainty over policy outcomes. In doing so, I contribute to the theory of international environmental agreements, which has overwhelmingly assumed non-compliance to be observable and non-enforcement to be punishable. By also incorporating countries ratification decisions, this paper makes several important contributions : it contributes to a more realistic modeling of the treaty formation, it endogenizes the number of participants as well as their characteristics and it identifies the determinants of the optimal level of ambiguity in designing an IEA.

• Lundi 1er avril 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  DECAROLIS Francesco (Bocconi) : From Mad Men to Maths Men: Concentration and Buyer Power in Online Advertising

  Gabriele Rovigatti

  Résumé

  This paper analyzes the impact of intermediaries concentration on the allocation of revenues in online platforms. We study sponsored search - the sale ad space on search engines through online auctions - documenting how advertisers increasingly bid through an handful of specialized intermediaries. This enhances automated bidding and data pooling, but lessens competition whenever the intermediary represents com- peting advertisers. Using data on nearly 40 million Google’s keyword-auctions, we first apply machine learning algorithms to cluster keywords into thematic groups serving as relevant markets. Then, through an instrumental variable strategy, we quantify a negative and sizeable impact of intermediaries’ concentration on platform’s revenues.

• Lundi 25 mars 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MARTINEZ-ZARZOSO Inma (University of Göttingen) : Searching for Grouped Patterns of Heterogeneity in the Climate-Migration Link

  Résumé

  This paper investigates the extent to which international migration can be explained by climate change and whether this relationship varies systematically between groups of countries. The primary focus is to further investigate the differential effect found for countries with different income levels using a high-frequency migration dataset and allowing the country-grouping to be data-driven. For this purpose, the main results of this paper are based on the group-mean fixed-effects (GFE) estimator proposed by Bonhomme and Manresa (2015), which allows us to group the countries of origin according to the data generating process. The results indicate that on average, increasing average temperatures are associated with an increase in emigration rates, but that the pattern differs between groups. The relationship is driven by a group of countries mainly located in sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia. No statistically significant association is found between average local precipitation and emigration.

• Lundi 18 mars 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BECERRA VALBUENA Luis : Do local ENSO events affect air quality and health in Bogotá ?

  Professor Jorge

  Résumé

  We aim to analyze if, for the case of Bogota, the ENSO events (El Niño and la Niña) have an effect on health via weather and air quality. To our knowledge, no one seems to have investigated further the ENSO events on weather, how this relates with the concentration of air pollutants and the impact it could have on health outcomes. The question seems more relevant now as an increase in intensity and frequency of El Niño phenomena are expected in the coming years (see chapter 3 of last report Global Warming of 1.5 Celsius degrees the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The paper is purely empirical and uses a large database for a period running from 1997 to 2015 for different stations measuring pollutants as well as meteorological and weather variables along the city. The data are rich (by day and hour in many cases) and allow to do a unique analysis. Information of health outcomes come from a data-set of health centers along the city, with information of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases between 2012 to 2015. Information of births and deaths (weight at birth, height at birth, weeks of gestation, etc) is available from 1997 to 2015. Information of the ENSO events is publicly available by month since 1950. As a first step, we have estimated the effects of ENSO events on weather and on pollutants hour by hour, using those phenomena as a quasi-experiment; this has allowed us to understand better at which time of the day, weather and pollutant factors are highly or less affected by ENSO events. In terms of weather, the effect goes in the expected direction, with higher temperature in El Niño and higher rain in La Niña. However, the effects on weather variables tend to be higher during La Niña than during El Niño, and in both cases, the maximum effects happen during the afternoon peak, in comparison with the morning. In terms of pollution, El Niño brings higher temperatures, and pollutants such as particulate matter and CO increase during these events, in peak hours. However, La Niña brings more rain which could help to clean those contaminants. Importantly, peak hours of transport matter to increase pollution, and ENSO events are more relevant during this time. The hours of the day when the effects are more important should be considered in the health equation. The step to follow will be to test the potential effects this could have on health costs, and to estimate the economic cost of these phenomena (on QUALYS-DALYS).

• Lundi 11 mars 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  VONA Francesco (University of Milan) : The Impact of Energy Prices on Employment and Environmental

  Résumé

  This paper evaluates the influence of energy prices on employment and environmental performance of French manufacturing establishments over the period of 1997-2015. To identify price effects, we construct a shift-share instrument that captures only the exogenous variation in establishment-specifi c energy prices. Our results highlight a trade-off between environmental and economic goals: an increase in energy prices brings about not only substantial reductions in energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but also modestly negative impacts on employment and productivity. This trade-off will be ampli fied by a carbon tax, especially in trade-intensive and energy-intensive sectors. Finally, employment effects are not biased against unskilled workers and are mitigated by labor reallocation across establishments within the same company.

• Lundi 25 février 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  GERLAGH Reyer (University of Tilburg) : Family Planning and Climate Change

  Résumé

  Historical data show that the increase in emissions is for only one-fourth attributable to the growth of emissions per person, whereas three-fourths are due to the growth of population. This striking evidence notwithstanding, the majority of climate-economic studies focus on emissions through the lens of energy externalities in production and consumption activities, and on policies to correct these. Population dynamics in those models is typically taken to follow exogenous trends. Yet population growth is a key component of projections of future emissions. Population is expected to rise to around 9.8 billion by 2050, and climate economists must include the environmental consequences of individuals' reproductive decisions into their analyses. In this paper, we study the interactions between climate change and population dynamics. We develop an analytical model of endogenous fertility and embed it in a calibrated climate-economy model. The social optimum can be implemented through carbon pricing policies and policies aiming at smaller families. Population without family planning policies peaks at 12 billion, while optimal family planning brings the peak back to 9 billion. If family planning cannot be addressed as a separate policy instrument for climate policies, carbon taxes need to be lowered. Our results present family planning as an integral part of climate policies and quantify the costs of neglecting the interaction.

• Lundi 18 février 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  WANG Olivier (NYU Stern) : Identification and Estimation of Demand for Bundles

  Alessandro Iaria

  Résumé

  We study the identification and estimation of a mixed logit model of demand for bundles. We generalize the model proposed by Gentzkow (2007) in three ways. First, we allow the demand synergies among products (capturing complementarity and substitutability) to be bundle-individual specific and treated as random coefficients. Second, we allow the joint distribution of the random coefficients to belong to any parametric family. Third, our arguments are not specific to the three-bundle case but are directly developed for choice sets of any size. We propose sufficient conditions for identification and for lack of it. Our sufficient conditions for identification also guarantee consistency and asymptotic normality of a constrained MLE (MPEC) that alleviates the curse of dimensionality inherent in estimation, and it is robust to both price endogeneity and sampling error in the observed market shares. We use our methods to investigate the welfare implications of mixed bundling pricing in the ready-to-eat cereal industry in the USA. The profit gains of mixed bundling pricing with respect to pure components pricing are sharply decreasing in the level of competition: while a monopolist would benefit from mixed bundling, the observed oligopoly would not—even ignoring potential increases in logistics costs. Given any market structure, mixed bundling leads to lower levels of consumer surplus than pure components.

• Lundi 11 février 2019 12:00-13:00

  R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  RAUSCHER Michael (University of Rostock) : Demographic Change and Climate Change

  Résumé

  The paper uses a continuous-time overlapping-generations model with endogenous growth and pollution accumulation over time to study the link between longevity and global warming. It is seen that increasing longevity accelerates climate change in a business-as-usual scenario without climate policy. If a binding emission target is set exogenously and implemented via a cap-and-trade system, the price of emission permits is increasing in longevity. Longevity has no effect on the optimal solution of the climate problem if perfect intergenerational transfers are feasible. If these transfers are absent, the impact of longevity is ambiguous.

• Lundi 4 février 2019 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  STERN Lennart (PSE) : *

• Lundi 10 décembre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  TAYLOR Scott (University of Calgary) : Is Free Trade Good for Resources - Labellisé par les Assises de la recherche de l'Université Paris 1

• Lundi 3 décembre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  POZZI Andrea (EIEF) : The Cost of Steering in Financial Markets: Evidence from the Mortgage Market

  Leonardo Gambacorta, Luigi Guiso, Paolo Mistrulli and Anton Tsoy

  Résumé

  Many households lack sophistication required to make complex financial decisions and can be steered by intermediaries to certain financial products via informative or distorted advice, advertisement, shrouding, etc. We build a model of the mortgage market in which banks attain their optimal mortgage portfolio by both setting rates and steering their clientele. “Sophisticated” households know which mortgage type is best for them; “naive” are susceptible to bank’s steering. Using data on the universe of Italian mortgages, we estimate the model and quantify the welfare implications of steering in this market. The average cost of the distortion is equivalent to an increase in the annual mortgage payment by 11%. However, since steering often also conveys information about mortgages, restricting steering results in a loss of 998 euros per year on average. A financial literacy campaign is beneficial for naive households, but hurts sophisticated ones.

• Lundi 26 novembre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  SOMANATHAN Eswaran (Indian Statistical Institute) : The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing

  Rohini Somanathan, Anant Sudarshan, and Meenu Tewari

  Résumé

  Hotter years are associated with lower economic output in country-level data. We show that the effect of temperature on labor is an important part of the explanation. Using high-frequency micro data from selected firms in India, we find that worker productivity on hot days declines by 2 to 4 percent per degree celsius. Sustained heat also increases worker absenteeism. Using a national panel of manufacturing plants, we find similar temperature effects on output and show that these can be fully accounted for by reductions in the productivity of labor. Estimated effect sizes are consistent with studies that rely on country GDP panels.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 19 novembre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  TREICH Nicolas (TSE) : An economic model of the meat paradox

  N. Hestermann et Y. Le Yaouanq

  Résumé

  How can individuals care about animals and, at the same time, eat meat? We design a survey study to explore this \meat paradox. Survey participants (N = 3054) underestimate farm animal suffer- ing, and underestimate it more (i.e., are less realistic) when they eat more meat. Building on the literature on cognitive dissonance, we develop a model in which individuals form self-serving beliefs in order to reduce the moral guilt associated with meat consumption. The model characterizes how individuals' beliefs about animal wel- fare and their attitude towards information are affected by the eco- nomic environment (e.g., price of meat, salience of animal welfare), and by individuals' preferences (e.g., taste for meat, moral cost of guilt). Several empirical observations are consistent with our model.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 12 novembre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  VANDENBUSSCHE Hylke (KU Leuven) : Input reallocation in Multi-product Firms

  C. Viegelahn

  Résumé

  This paper documents the within firm reallocation of inputs and outputs as a result of a trade policy shock on the input side. A unique firm-input level dataset for India with information on different raw material inputs used in production, enables us to identify firms with imported inputs subject to trade policy. To guide the empirics, we first develop a back-bone model of heterogeneous firms that source inputs from abroad. We find that affected firms engage in input reallocation and lower their use of protected inputs by 25-40%, relative to other inputs. Especially large firms and multi-output firms skew their input use towards unprotected inputs. To identify the output reallocation ensuing trade protection on inputs, we develop a firm level input-output correspondence. Firms reduce their sales of outputs made of protected inputs, resulting in an annual aggregate manufacturing output growth loss for India of around 10%. We find a firm level decrease in markups, suggesting that the cost of imported inputs is only partially passed through to output prices. Thus, this paper documents a new channel through which trade protection negatively impacts input-using firms.

• Lundi 5 novembre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  DELMAS Magali (Maggie) (UCLA) : Sustainable Practices and Wine Quality: Is there value in Certification?

  Olivier Gergaud

  Résumé

  More and more wineries are using third-party eco-certification, such as organic or biodynamic certification, to communicate their sustainable practices. At the same time some wineries are adopting sustainable practices without third party certification. In France for example, some wineries self-proclaim themselves "Viticulture Raisonnée" (reasoned viticulture), a flexible approach to sustainability devoid of the rigidity of third party certification. The presence of these different sustainable practices raises the question of their comparative value. While previous research estimates that third party eco-certification leads to increased quality as evaluated by experts, it is unknown whether non-certified sustainable practices are also associated with quality improvements. Evaluating the impact of non-certified sustainability practices on quality is challenging due to the difficulty of identifying such practices. In this paper, we use French data on experts' quality ratings from Gault Millau, Gilbert Gaillard and Bettane Desseauve, to compare the ratings of self-proclaimed sustainable wines to third party eco-certified wines and conventional wines. A total of 140,690 wines is analyzed. Preliminary findings based on different matching techniques indicate that self-proclaimed sustainable wines are of lower quality than conventional wines, while eco-certified wines are of higher quality than conventional wines. This suggest that non certified practices could be associated with greenwashing. JEL Classification: L15, L66; Q5

• Lundi 22 octobre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  DOUENNE Thomas : Disaster risks, disaster strikes and economic growth: the role of preferences

  Résumé

  This paper studies the role of preferences on the link between disasters and growth. An endogenous growth model with disasters is presented in which one can derive closed-form solutions with nonexpected utility. The model distinguishes disaster risks and disaster strikes and highlights the numerous mechanisms through which they may affect growth. It is shown that separating aversion to risk from the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution bears critical qualitative implications that enable to better understand these mechanisms. In a calibration of the model, it is shown that for standard parameter values, the additional restriction imposed by the time-additive expected utility can also lead to substantial quantitative bias regarding optimal risk-mitigation policies and growth. The paper thus calls for a wider use of non-expected utility in the modeling of disasters, in particular with respect to environmental disasters and climate change.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 15 octobre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  MILLOCK Katrin (PSE) : The effect of flood risk information on property values around Paris

  Edwige Dubos-Paillard, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Géographie-cités) and Emmanuelle Lavaine, Montpellier University (CEEM)

  Résumé

  The paper examines the effect of information about flood zone location on property prices in the region around Paris, France, over the period 2002 to 2012. We use unique data on real estate transactions and geo-localised amenities from a major European city exploiting the different dates of implementation of special risk zoning regulation. Using an identification strategy based on a difference-in-difference specification, the results indicate that home prices for similar real estate are 3 to 7% lower when located in a flood risk zone, depending on the sub market (flats or houses), and the discount increases the higher is the flood risk designated by the regulation. The effect is attenuated for buyers coming from locations with previous flood events.

• Lundi 8 octobre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  TOIVANEN Otto (Aalto University) : Welfare effects of R&D support policies

  Tuomas Takalo & Tanja Tanayama

  Résumé

  We build a structural model of the R&D subsidy process incorporating externalities, fixed costs of R&D, and financial market imperfections. We estimate the model using project level R&D and subsidy data from Finland. We conduct a counterfactual analysis of an optimal R&D tax credit policy, the first and second best policies, and laissez-faire with no support and compare them to the subsidy policy used in Finland. We find that the optimal R&D tax credit rate is 0.24, which is lower than the observed average R&D subsidy rate (0.36). R&D participation does not vary across regimes. The R&D investments and spillovers generated by the optimal R&D tax credit and subsidy policies are significantly higher than under laissez-faire but smaller than in the first and second best. Neither tax credits nor subsidies improve welfare compared to laissez-faire.

• Lundi 1er octobre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  GOUEL Christophe (INRA) : The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate Change

  Résumé

  Climate change effects on agricultural yields will be uneven over the world with a few countries, mostly in high latitudes, that may experience gains, while most will see average yield decrease. This paper aims at quantifying the role of international trade in attenuating the effects of climate change by allowing the expression of the new climate-induced pattern of comparative advantages. To do this, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium trade model where the representation of acreage and land use choices is inspired from modern Ricardian trade models but also consistent with theoretical and empirical literature on land use choices. The model is calibrated on spatially explicit information about potential yields before and after climate change coming from the agronomic literature. The results show that the climate-induced yield changes generate large price movements that incentivize adjustments in acreage and trade. The new trade pattern is very different from the current one showing the important role of trade flows in adapting to climate change. This is confirmed by large increased welfare losses from climate change when adjustments in trade flows are constrained.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 24 septembre 2018 12:00-13:00

  salle R1-13, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris

  MARTIMORT David (PjSE) : Screening Contracts As A Barrier To Entry

  Jérôme Pouyet and Lars Stole

  Résumé

  We uncover how strategic and screening concerns interact in the design of ver- tical contracts under the threat of entry. We provide a rationale for the use of rebates, discounts and quantity requirements in a context with uncertainty on the fixed cost of entry, multi-unit demand and private information on the buyer’s prefer- ences. These key ingredients were missing from the extant literature. First, private information on the buyer’s tastes motivates the use of price discounts as screening devices as in any nonlinear pricing context. Yet, price discounts are modified by the threat of entry in subtle ways that depend on the contractual environments. Second, the buyer has a downward sloping demand and finds it sometimes optimal to split consumption between the incumbent and the entrant, with the proviso, con- sistent with most recent Antitrust cases, that the entrant, although more efficient, never serves the whole demand. Third, although it can be attractive on alloca- tive grounds, entry might not always be socially optimal because of uncertainty on the fixed cost of entry. We study two different scenarios. In the first one, the case of market-share contracts, the incumbent can design different nonlinear tariffs depending on whether the buyer also purchases from the entrant or not. In the second scenario, the incumbent can only offer a single nonlinear tariff and cannot distinguish whether the buyer also purchases from the entrant or not. Our analy- sis stresses properties of nonlinear prices that are specific to an entry context and that respond to the incumbent’s incentives to shift rent under the aforementioned contractual restrictions.

• Lundi 11 juin 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  WAGNER Ulrich (Mannheim) : THE CO-POLLUTION BENEFITS OF CLIMATE POLICY: EVIDENCE FROM THE EU EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME

  with Laure B. de Preux

  Résumé

  Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are known to cause global climate change but no damage to the local environment. However, because CO2 is often jointly produced with other substances that pollute the environment, CO2 abatement may generate ancillary benefits, especially for human health. Previous research suggests that these co-benefits can offset a substantial share of the economic costs of mitigation policies. This paper conducts the first empirical test of this hypothesis in the context of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for CO2. The econometric analysis exploits comprehensive microdata on discharges of more than 90 different pollutants into air, water and soil, at more than 28,000 commercial installations in 31 European countries. It is found that the EU ETS decreased air releases of some pollutants while increasing water releases of other pollutants. Moreover, in some cases the patterns of spatial redistribution are strongly correlated with income, population size or age. The implications for the efficiency and environmental justice of the EU ETS are discussed.

• Lundi 4 juin 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  JESSOE Katrina (UC Davis) : Gains from Water Markets: Micro-level Evidence on Agricultural Water Demand

  with Ellen Bruno

  Résumé

  This paper demonstrates that the establishment of well-functioning water markets may substantially mitigate the costs of drought. We develop a framework to model the costs of incomplete water regulation, and simulate the efficiency gains from water trading across the agricultural and urban sectors. Critical to this exercise are credible estimates of the price elasticity of demand for agricultural water. We use monthly panel data on well-level agricultural groundwater extraction in an area that charges volumetric rates for groundwater to estimate the elasticity. Demand is inelastic, with estimates ranging from -0.17 to -0.22. Our simulation suggests that in an agriculturally productive and dense urban area of California, a water market could have reduced the welfare impacts to residential users from the 2015 drought mandate by 60% from $83 million to $33.5 million. Water markets present a promising adaption strategy to climate change.

• Lundi 28 mai 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ELLISON Glenn (MIT) : A Model of Online Retail Recommendations

• Lundi 16 avril 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  TRAEGER Christian (University of Oslo) : ACE – Analytic Climate Economy

  Résumé

  The paper develops an analytic integrated assessment model of climate change. It enhances our current understanding of climate policy and explains crucial relations to the broader audience. The model offers a novel framework to address climate change uncertainties. The analytic solution overcomes Bellman’s curse of dimensionality for a wide range of stochastic processes. I analyze the policy implications of the main climate uncertainties and show the different welfare implications of “objective” uncertainty, epistemological uncertainty, and anticipated learning. In contrast to earlier suggestions in the literature, uncertainty is not more relevant to climate change evaluation than discounting, but uncertainty makes the policy recommendations even more sensitive to the calibration of the discount rates and its individual components than under certainty. The present Analytic Climate Economy (ACE) is the first analytic model comprising all the components considered essential for quantitative policy advising.

• Lundi 9 avril 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GAGNEPAIN Philippe (Université Paris 1, PSE) : Market power and volatility in the airline industry

  With A. Belova, P. Gagnepain, et S. Gauthier

  Résumé

  In a strategic game where firms compete against each other, the set of rationalizable strategies for each player entails all the best responses to the other’s decisions. The theoretical litterature has suggested that the uniqueness of the rationalizable outcomes coincides with the Nash equilibrium of the game. This paper proposes an empirical test of the existence of the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium in a Cournot oligopoly. We focus on the U.S. airline industry and develop a theoretical model of competition on each route. It is assumed that airlines are not always able to predict perfectly the behavior of the competitors which can result in multiplicity of rationalizable outcomes. Based on the supply and demand ingredients of our model, we construct a stability criterion which guarantees uniqueness. We conclude that more than 90% of the local markets observed in the U.S. airline industry have reached the unique possible Nash equilibrium. As a by-product, we also identify the main determinants which prevent firms from reaching an equilibrium. We show in particular that local markets which include a higher number of competitors are the ones where the quantity produced is more volatile.

• Lundi 26 mars 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ELLISON Sara (MIT) : Regulatory Distortion: Evidence from Uber’s Entry Decisions in the US

  Résumé

  There is a large and long-standing literature on the distortionary effects of regulations on the functioning of markets. A newer strand of this literature focuses on licensing regulations, such as state-specific licensing of teachers and hairdressers. We seek to add to this literature with the specific case of ride-hailing services, such as Uber. We assemble a new and comprehensive data set of 250 US cities and their regulations regarding hackney services. We specify a stylized profit model for Uber, which is a function of these regulations, and estimate the parameters of the profit function using observed Uber entry decisions into these cities. Our data set and empirical strategy allow us to estimate the differential effects of particular types of regulations, separating out regulations governing safety, governing operations, and erecting entry barriers. We find that safety regulations do not have a distortionary effect on the functioning of the market for hackney services and evading them does not increase Uber’s profits. We find evidence that Uber’s profits are increased, however, by their ability to evade regulatory entry barriers and regulations governing operations. In other words, those regulations do have a significant distortionary effect on the market. To the extent that safety-related regulations are welfare-enhancing and those erecting entry barriers are welfare-decreasing, our results suggest a welfare-enhancing effect of Uber’s entry.

• Lundi 19 mars 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MILLOCK Katrin (PSE) : Accelerating diffusion of climate-friendly technologies: a network perspective

  MAYOL Alexandre (PSE, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne ) : Providing public utilities in a common agency framework: making, buying and governance

  with Solmaria Halleck Vega and Antoine Mandel

  Résumé

  Abstract 1: We introduce a methodology to estimate the determinants of the formation of technology diffusion networks from the patterns of technology adoption. We apply this methodology to wind energy, which is one of the key technologies for climate change mitigation. Technology diffusion occurs at the firm level, but it is influenced by policy and we study how policy affects network formation at a country level. Our results emphasize that long-term economic and trade relationships, as measured in particular by economic integration, are key determinants of technological diffusion. Specific support measures seem less relevant for the diffusion per se, although they might play a crucial role from an industrial perspective. Abstract 2: This article analyzes how the local political organization (in France, the level of the single municipality, the union of communes (Syndicats) or supermunicipality (communaut de communes) and the management mode (public or private) can influence the performance of the public service. The impact of these organizational configurations on costs has never been studied simultaneously by the literature. We first propose a theoretical model based on a principal-agent problem to analyze them together. Then, from a panel of French water services, we observe empirically that these different organizational ombinations have an impact on the price.

• Lundi 5 mars 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  IOSSA Elisabetta (University of Rome Tor Vergata) : Project Choice and Innovation Policy: the case for Public Procurement

  with Alessandro De Chiara

  Résumé

  There is a long standing policy debate on the role and design of innovation policies. In this paper, we develop a model of project choice with competition for funding and compare: (i) A Demand-side approach, in which the public authority restricts the type of research project eligible for funding, with (ii) A Supply-side approach, in which the public authority chooses its preferred project among those submitted. The authority can verify the characteristics of the projects submitted by the firms, but does not know which other projects the firms have available. We compare the two approaches from the point of view of the authority and in terms of social welfare, considering both small projects which the firm could self-finance and larger projects which would not be implemented absent public funds. We identify under which conditions a Demand-side approach is preferable in terms of allocative efficiency and investment incentives.

• Lundi 19 février 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CREPIN Anne-Sophie : Inertia in risk; improving economic models of catastrophes

  Eric Nævdal

  Résumé

  We provide a new way to model endogenous catastrophic risk termed inertia risk, which accounts for dynamic lags between physical variables and the hazard rate—a characteristic which is often observed in real life problems. For example the stock of some particular species in an ecosystem might influence the level of stress (or resilience) in that system, which is a slowly changing variable compared to the species dynamics. When the level of stress passes a critical threshold the ecosystem undertakes a regime shift, a rapid, substantial and persistent change in the system. In such context the inertia hazard rate defines the risk that the system will shift in the next period of time, which depends on both variables. We show that the added realism in our risk model has intuitive appeal and significantly impacts optimal solutions. With inertia risk, the probability that a catastrophe will ever occur may span the entire interval [0, 1]. This as opposed to the standard approach where this probability is either zero or one. We also show how inertia risk may generate path dependency as the hazard rate depends on learning about how risk is distributed in state space. We illustrate the implications for policy in a simple model ­­of climate change. The optimal solution with inertia depends on parameters, such as damage and discount rates in a qualitatively different way compared to the standard approach. Hence for problems with lagged effects, where inertia risk is a more realistic way to represent risk, using the standard models of catastrophic risk that discard these lagged effects could generate substantially flawed policy recommendations.

• Lundi 12 février 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  FODHA Mouez (Université Paris 1, PSE) : Environmental Tax Reform under debt constraint

  COLO Philippe (PSE) : Uncertainty in environmental agreements

  Résumé

  This article analyzes the impacts of Environmental Tax Reform (ETR) when the government is constrained not to increase the public debt-to-output ratio. We consider an overlapping generations model with pollution. Public spending for pollution abatement are …nanced by tax revenues and public debt. We show that keeping constant the public debt-output ratio is not an obstacle to attain a double dividend, i.e. an increase of both (i) environmental quality and (ii) aggregate consumption. First, if the capital stock is low and the pollution abatement is large enough, a successful ETR consists in a rise of the environmental tax, compensated by a decrease of the income tax. Secondly, we show that the environmental tax revenues may help reduce the public debt-output ratio. We give conditions (on the initial level of the environmental tax and the debt-output ratio) such that an increase of the environmental tax, budget-balanced by a decrease of the debt-output ratio may also achieve a double dividend. We conclude that public debt crisis should not compromise ETR, instead, environmental tax revenues could be part of the solution.

• Lundi 5 février 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BEZIN Emeline : The Economics of Green Consumption, Cultural Transmission and Sustainable Technological Change.

  Résumé

  A model shows that systematic interactions between green consumer culture and sustainable technologies can give rise to path dependency in sustainable innovation processes. The theory includes (i) green preferences formed through cultural transmission which involves rational socialization actions, (ii) innovation endogenously directed to sustainable or unsustainable sectors depending on culture through market size effects. When interactions between green culture and technology are strong enough, the dynamics exhibits complementarities resulting in path dependency. Two long-term outcomes emerge. A green equilibrium (with strong green culture and an environmentally benign technology), a brown equilibrium (with weak green culture and a pollution-intensive technology). The model has important implications for the cost of environmental policies. Moreover, the theory enables the study of an important disregarded issue, i.e., the political sustainability of environmental taxes.

• Lundi 22 janvier 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LEGROS Patrick : Come Together Now — Firm Boundaries and Delegation

• Lundi 15 janvier 2018 12:00-14:00

  DOUENNE THOMAS ( UNIVERSITÉ PARIS 1 PANTHÉON SORBONNE) ET Nunez Thais (Univ. d'Orléans) (PSE) : The vertical and horizontal distributive effects of energy taxes: A micro-simulation study of a French policy

• Lundi 8 janvier 2018 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  COULOMB Renaud (University of Melbourne) : Rare Events and Risk Perception: Evidence from the Fukushima Accident

  Yanos Zylberberg

  Résumé

  We study changes in nuclear-risk perception following the Fukushima nuclear accident of March 2011. Using an exhaustive registry of individual housing transactions in England and Wales between 2007 and 2014, we implement a difference-in-difference strategy and compare housing prices in at-risk areas to areas further away from nuclear sites before and after the Fukushima incident. We find a persistent price decrease of about 3.5% in response to the accident for properties in the neighbourhood of nuclear plants. As the UK immediately extended the life duration of most nuclear plants, the price decrease is primarily driven by a change in nuclear-risk perception. However, we find large heterogeneity among at-risk neighbourhoods, and we explore how such heterogeneity can relate to existing productive and consumptive amenities.

• Mercredi 13 décembre 2017 12:30-14:00

  Salle R2-21, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  MA Albert (Boston University) : Uterus at a Price: Disability Insurance and Hysterectomy

  Résumé

  Taiwanese Labor, Government Employee, and Farmer Insurance programs provide 5-6 months of salary to enrollees who undergo hysterectomy or oophorectomy before their 45th birthday. These programs result in more and earlier treatments, referred as, respectively, inducement and timing effects. Difference-indifference and nonparametric methods are used to estimate these effects on surgery hazards between 1997 and 2011. For Government Employee and Labor Insurance, inducement is 11-12% of all hysterectomies, and timing 20% of inducement. For oophorectomy, both effects are insignificant. Induced hysterectomies increase benefit payments and surgical costs, at about the cost of a mammogram and 5 pap smears per enrollee.

• Lundi 4 décembre 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-15, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SCHUMACHER Ingmar : Mitigation strategies when faced with the threat of solar radiation management

• Lundi 27 novembre 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CASSI Lorenzo (Université Paris 1, PSE) : Mergers and inventive activities in the pharmaceutical sector

  with Carmine Ornaghi (University of Southampton)

• Lundi 20 novembre 2017 12:00-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  DUSO Tomaso (DIW (Berlin) ) : The Effect of Retail Mergers on Prices and Variety: An Ex-post Evaluation

  Elena Argentesi, Paolo Buccirossi, Roberto Cervone, Alessia Marrazzo

  Résumé

  Astract We use an original dataset on Dutch supermarkets to assess the effect of a merger that was conditionally approved by the Dutch Competition Authority (ACM) on prices and on the depth of assortment. We adopt a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits local variation in the merger's effects and we further control for selection on observables when defining our control group. We find that the merger did not affect individual products' prices but it led the merging parties to reposition their assortment and increase average category prices. While the low-quality target stores reduced the depth of their assortment when in direct competition with the acquirer's stores, the latter increased their product variety. By analyzing the effect of the merger on category prices, we find that the target most likely dropped high price products, while the acquirer added more of them. These findings suggests that the merging firms reposition their product offerings in order to avoid cannibalization and lessen local competition. We further show that other dimensions of heterogeneity such as market concentration, whether a divestiture was imposed, and the re-branding strategy of the target stores are important to explain the post-merger dynamics. A simple theoretical model of local-market assortment competition explains most of our findings.

• Lundi 13 novembre 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  DEMENTIEV Andrei (National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow)) : Contracting out public services to asymmetric partnerships

  Résumé

  ABSTRACT: The paper studies an organisational structure of contracting out public utilities to an asymmetric partnership between the local authorities and a vertically integrated firm. Being fiscally constrained and politically motivated the government delegates pricing decision in the downstream market to a partnership while the upstream market for essential input is not regulated directly. The accompanying regulatory instrument, namely the net budget transfer, is valued at the social cost of public funds and can be set ex post making the firm’s participation constraint non-binding. A negative budget transfer effectively extracts the firm’s rent in the non-regulated upstream market and depends on the corporate structure of the partnership. We build a formal model that predicts that local authorities with relatively high share in the partnership should decrease the net transfer when the profit margin in the downstream market falls. The empirical support for this finding is found in the panel data for 25 suburban passenger companies in Russia in 2011-2015. The effect of the share structure on the relationship between the compensation ratio and farebox ratio is captured by the interaction variable highlighting the nonlinear effect. The failure to fully compensate operational losses in the transportation market is interpreted as a system of pseudo-franchising contracts in the Russian suburban railway transport that, to some extent, reflects political preferences of the local authorities in the country.

• Lundi 6 novembre 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-14, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BOURGEON Jean-Marc : Green Technology Adoption and the Business Cycle

  Margot Hovsepian

  Résumé

  Abstract : We analyze the adoption of green technology in a dynamic economy affected by random shocks where demand spillovers are the main driver of technological improvements. Firms' beliefs and consumers' anticipations drive the path of the economy. We derive the optimal policy of investment subsidy and the expected time and likelihood of reaching a targeted level of environmental quality under economic uncertainty. This allows us to estimate the value that should be given to the environment in order to avoid an environmental catastrophe as a function of the strength of spillover effects.

• Lundi 23 octobre 2017 12:00-13:30

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  WILLIAMS III Roberton (University of Maryland) : Unemployment and Environmental Regulation in General Equilibrium

  Résumé

  This presentation will cover two closely related papers. The first paper analyzes the effects of environmental policy on employment (and unemployment) using a new general-equilibrium two-sector search model. We find that imposing a pollution tax causes substantial reductions in employment in the regulated (polluting) industry, but this is offset by increased employment in the unregulated (nonpolluting) sector. Thus the policy causes a substantial shift in employment between industries, but the net effect on overall employment (and unemployment) is small, even in the short run. An environmental performance standard causes a substantially smaller sectoral shift in employment than the emissions tax, with roughly similar net effects. The effects on the unregulated industry suggest that empirical studies of environmental regulation that focus only on regulated firms can be misleading (and those that use nonregulated firms as controls for regulated firms will be even more misleading). This paper’s results also suggest that overall effects on employment are not a major issue for environmental policy, and that policymakers who want to minimize sectoral shifts in employment might prefer performance standards over environmental taxes.

• Lundi 16 octobre 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CHEN Stéphanie (University of Chicago) : Competitive Personalized Pricing with Sophisticated Consumers

  Chongwoo Choe, Monash University

  Résumé

  Abstract Personalized pricing, a limiting case of price discrimination as the number of targeted consumer segments increases, becomes increasingly common due to the availability of vast amount of individual-level data. This paper studies personalized pricing in a Hotelling setting when each firm has a given target segment and consumers can be sophisticated. Sophisticated consumers can overcome the hurdles for price discrimination and have access to the price offered to non-targeted consumers, which naive consumers cannot. When all consumers are naive, personalized pricing leads to intense competition and total industry profit lower than that under the Hotelling equilibrium. But market is always fully covered. Sophisticated consumers raise the firm's cost of serving non-targeted consumers, hence discourage firms from poaching the rival's targeted customers. This softens competition. When firms have sufficiently large and non-overlapping target segments, consumer sophistication allows firms to extract full surplus from their targeted customers through perfect price discrimination. Consumers are strictly worse-off under competitive personalized pricing, a result in contrast to the common view in the literature. With sophisticated consumers, firms also choose not to serve the entire market when the commonly non-targeted market segment is small. Thus consumer sophistication can lead to lower consumer surplus and lower social welfare. We also discuss the implications for the regulation of the use of customer data by firms. Key words: Personalized pricing, consumer sophistication, customer targeting, privacy JEL Classification: D43, D8, L13, L5

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 2 octobre 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  FLECKINGER Pierre (Ecole des Mines - PSE) : The Incentive properties of collective reputation

  FABRE Adrien (PSE) : French favored redistribution derived from surveys: A political assessment of optimal tax theory

  Wanda Mimra, ETH Zürich, and Angelo Zago, University of Verona

• Lundi 25 septembre 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  LISKI Matti (Aalto University) : Carbon leakage: a mechanism design approach

  co-author: Lassi Ahlvik (NHH, Bergen)

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 18 septembre 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-14, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  TOEWS Gerhard (New Economic School) : Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas: An illustration from Mozambique

  MAVI Can Askan (Univ. Paris I - PSE) : What can abrupt events tell us about sustainability ?

  Pierre-Louis Vézina, King's College London

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Mardi 13 juin 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-15, Nouveau Bâtiment, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  DAVIS Lucas (Haas Business School, UC Berkeley) : Do Energy Eciency Investments Deliver at the Right Time?

  Judson Boomhower

  Résumé

  Abstract Electricity cannot be cost-eectively stored even for short periods of time. Consequently, wholesale electricity prices vary widely across hours of the day with peak prices frequently exceeding o-peak prices by a factor of ten or more. Most analyses of energy-eciency policies ignore this variation, focusing on total energy savings without regard to when those savings occur. In this paper we demonstrate the impor- tance of this distinction using novel evidence from a rebate program for air conditioners in Southern California. We estimate electricity savings using previously unavailable hourly \smart-meter data and show that savings tend to occur during hours when the value of electricity is high. This signicantly increases the overall value of the program, especially once we account for the large capacity payments received by generators to guarantee their availability in high-demand hours. We then com- pare this estimated savings prole with engineering-based estimates for this program as well as a variety of alternative energy-eciency invest- ments. The results illustrate a surprisingly large amount of variation in economic value across investments.

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 29 mai 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-15, Nouveau Bâtiment, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GAVAZZA Alessandro (London School of Economics) : *

• Lundi 22 mai 2017 09:00-13:00

  Salle R1-15, Campus Jourdan, 48 Boulevard Jourdan, 75014 paris

  Journée interne du groupe Régulation et Environnement

• Lundi 15 mai 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-15, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  BERTHOD Mathias (PSE, Paris I) : A bargaining agreement between non-renewable resource producers: stability versus asymmetry

  MAYOL Alexandre (PSE, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne ) : Tarifs discriminants et monopoles de l'eau potable: Analyse économique des tarifs progressifs dans l'eau potable française à partir d'une expérience naturelle

  Résumé

  Within a linear quadratic differential game framework with economic depletion inspired by Salo and Tahvonen (2001), we use recent results of Reddy and Engwerda (2013) to characterize a Pareto optimal bargaining agreement between two non-renewable resource producers. The main result is that incentive to cartelize will depend on the symmetry of the producers. In contrast to Salo and Tahvonen, we find that the concentration in supply could then increase over time while countries have more and more interest to bargain.

• Lundi 24 avril 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-15, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  TOEWS Gerhard (New Economic School) : Creative Destruction vs Destructive Destruction: A Schumpeterian Approach for Environmental Policy

  ALTAGHLIBI Moutaz (PSE, Paris I, Dynamic Border Carbon Adjustment to Enhance Green Growth) : Dynamic Border Carbon Adjustment to Enhance Green Growth

  Résumé

  This article aims to show how a market exposed to catastrophic events finds the equilibrium level of adaptation and mitigation policies through R&D policy, with respect to different levels of Poisson probability of catastrophe. We study the effect of a pollution tax on the long-run growth rate and the implications of catastrophe probability on this effect. Our results suggest that the economy increases its R&D level with a higher catastrophe probability only if the penalty rate due to an abrupt event is sufficiently high. We also show that a pollution tax could increase the long-run growth. Besides, the catastrophe probability increases the amplitude of this positive effect if penalty rate is high enough. The market makes adaptation much more than mitigation with a higher catastrophe probability if total productivity of R&D is higher than cleanliness of innovations for intermediate goods. Lastly, we show that pollution growth could be higher with less polluting inputs, which we call a Jevons-type paradox. Abstract : This paper analyzes the growth and welfare impacts of Border Carbon Adjustments (BCA) across trading countries. I build a trade model with monopolistic competition and dynamic investment decisions using Ramsey growth model. The government in each country can invest either in green nonpolluting or in brown polluting capital. I solve numerically for an open loop Nash equilibrium to study different configurations of BCAs across countries. I find that a unilateral BCA is welfare enhancing for the country that applies it and an effective tool to shift the growth of the other country towards greener path even when countries are not concerned about the environment. In a case of a BCA war, results show that a bilateral BCA becomes welfare enhancing for both countries if governments care sufficiently about the environmental quality of their consumers. Moreover, the asymmetry in initial development levels across countries induces a slower growth for the initially poorer country only if the other country is richer in brown capital. Furthermore, the model shows that trade openness should be done gradually along the development path of countries.

• Lundi 27 mars 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-15, Nouveau Bâtiment, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PLANTINGA Andrew (Bren School of Environmental Science and Management - UC Santa Barbara) : Salience and the Government Provision of Public Goods

  Matthew Wibbenmeyer et Sarah Anderson

  Résumé

  This paper examines the consequences of salience for the government provision of public goods. Salience is a common behavioral bias whereby people's attention is drawn to salient features of a decision problem, leading them to overweight prominent information in subsequent judgments. We analyze the case in which the public's demand for the good is distorted by salient events, and explore how salience influences public good allocation and efficiency. Theoretical predictions regarding public good allocation are ambiguous and depend on the magnitude of the change in payoffs and the extent of salience effects. We test whether salience increases or decreases allocation of government projects to reduce wildfire severity near wildland-adjacent communities. Even though the occurrence of a wildfire likely reduces the severity of future fires in the same area, it may increase the likelihood that fuels management projects are placed nearby if wildfire events strongly increase the salience of losses under future fires. We find strong evidence that the salience eects increase the likelihood of fuels management projects, and use robustness checks to eliminate competing explanations for our results. Our salience framework may also offer insights into government responses to terrorism, natural disasters, disease outbreaks, and environmental catastrophes.

• Mardi 21 mars 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R1-15, Nouveau Bâtiment, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ITO Koichiro (Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago) : Information Frictions, Inertia, and Selection on Elasticity: A Field Experiment on Electricity Tariff Choice

• Lundi 13 mars 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle R2-20, Nouveau Bâtiment, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  GAUTHIER Stéphane (PSE) : Profit taxation and production efficiency

  BEZIN Emeline

  Guy Laroque (Sciences-Po, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  Résumé

  Stéphane Gauthier: Profit taxation and production efficiency. Ecrit avec Guy Laroque (Sciences-Po, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies). Emeline Bezin: An economic theory of green consumer culture and sustainable technological change

• Lundi 6 mars 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  ARMSTRONG Mark (University of Oxford) : Ordered Consumer Search

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 27 février 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  JULLIEN Bruno (Toulouse School of Economics) : Privacy Protection

  Yassine Lefouili et Michael Riordan

  Résumé

  We study the incentives of a website to sell its customers? personal information. Third parties buying that information can either benefi?t or harm consumers, who learn about their vulnerability to unwanted intrusions through experience. The cost to the website of selling the information is the risk that bad experience may cause consumers to end their relationship with the website. The measures adopted by the website to mitigate that cost are neither contractible nor discernible by consumers. Nevertheless, in equilibrium, the website has incentives to be cautious about selling information or spend resources to screen third parties. We characterize the equilibrium privacy policy of the website and its welfare properties, and discuss the difficulty of welfare-improving regulations.

• Lundi 20 février 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  SECCHI Angelo (PSE - Université Paris 1) : Volatility of growth: size matters

  CHABROST Marion

  Résumé

  SECCHI Angelo: Volatility of growth: size matters. CHABROST Marion: “Get what you pay for” - The story underneath remunicipalization in the water sector. Co-écrit avec Stéphane Saussier et Simon Porcher.

• Lundi 30 janvier 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle 8, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  PITTEL Karen (IFO, Münich) : Thinking Local but Acting Global? The Interplay Between Local and Global Internalization of Externalities

  Résumé

  The paper analyzes the long-run development of local and global pollution when two types of abatement activities can be undertaken. One type reduces solely local pollution (e.g., use of particulate matter filters) while the other mitigates global pollution as well (e.g., application of fuel saving technologies). In the framework of a 2-country endogenous growth model, the implications of different degrees to which global externality is internalized are analyzed. We focus especially on local and global pollution levels and the effects on growth in both countries. Furthermore we derive implications for optimal policies in the different scenarios.

• Lundi 23 janvier 2017 12:00-14:00

  Salle 10, RDC Bâtiment G, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

  CANTILLON Estelle (Université Libre de Bruxelles) : Price formation in the European carbon market: The role of firm participation and risk management practices

  Aurélie Slechten, Lancaster Business School

  Résumé

  A key argument in favor of emissions markets (relative to command-and-control types of regulation) is their ability to aggregate dispersed information about abatement costs and emissions and generate price signals to guide firms' trading and abatement decisions. We exploit trading data from the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) to assess the extent to which this market was indeed able to deliver such price signals. We know who traded, when, with whom, on which platform if any, and at what price. Participation was partial, trading patterns differed across categories of market participants and the market was fragmented. We build a model of trading and information aggregation that integrates the salient features of the market and use it to explore their impact on the price formation process. Risk management practices and partial participation help account for some of the price anomalies that have been identified in the past on the basis of the analysis of price time series only.

• Lundi 16 janvier 2017 12:30-14:00

  MARTIMORT David (PjSE) : *

  TOULEMON Léa

  Résumé

  David MARTIMORT: Towards a Theory of the Precautionary Principle, joint with Louise Guillouet (Columbia) -- Lea TOULEMON: Regional Purchasing Groups and Hospital Medicine Prices: Evidence from Group Creations

• Lundi 5 décembre 2016 12:30-14:00

  DI FALCO Salvatore (GSEM) : Mother of Invention: the Emergence of the Reluctant Entrepreneur in Rural Ethiopia

• Lundi 28 novembre 2016 12:30-14:00

  VARIAN Hal (Google, Berkeley) : Use and Abuse of Network Effects

  Résumé

  The term ``network effects'' has a clear meaning in the context of economic models, but it is sometimes confused with other concepts like increasing returns to scale and learning-by-doing. This essay is an attempt to clear up some of this confusion.

• Lundi 21 novembre 2016 12:30-14:00

  HERRERA ARAUJO Daniel (PSE) : Multiproduct retailing and buyer power: The effects of product delisting on consumer shopping behavior

  HENRIET Fanny (PSE) : A Decomposition of Fuel Taxes

  Jorge Florez, Universidad del Rosario / Stéphane Gauthier

  Résumé

  Daniel Herrera Araujo : Multiproduct retailing and buyer power: The effects of product delisting on consumer shopping behavior (joint with Jorge Florez, Universidad del Rosario) Fanny Henriet: A Decomposition of Fuel Taxes (joint with Stéphane Gauthier)

• Lundi 14 novembre 2016 12:30-14:00

  LAURENT-LUCCHETTI Jérémy (Université de Genève) : Property Rights and Land Disputes: Theory and Evidence from Ethiopia

  Salvatore Di Falco, Marcella Veronesi et Gunnar Kohlin

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 7 novembre 2016 12:30-14:00

  LINNEMER Laurent (CREST) : Partial Exclusivity

  Philippe Choné et Thibaud Vergé

• Lundi 17 octobre 2016 12:30-14:00

  CHIROLEU-ASSOULINE Mireille (Université Paris 1, Panthéon Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics) : *

  MARCHI-ADANI Riccardo (University of Verona) :

  Paola Valbonesi

  Résumé

  Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline: Merchants of Doubt: Corporate Political Influence when Expert Credibility is Uncertain
  Riccardo Marchi-Adani: Favoritism in scoring rule auctions:an empirical investigation on Italian public procurement for canteens

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 10 octobre 2016 12:30-14:00

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  DECHEZLEPRETRE Antoine (LSE/OECD) : Do Pollution Offsets Offset Pollution? Evidence from the Clean Development Mechanism in India

  Résumé

  We provide the first large-scale empirical evaluation of the additionality of the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism, the largest carbon emissions offset mechanism in the world, based on the universe of wind power projects implemented in India during the period 1993-2013. We deal with the self-selection of project developers into the CDM by comparing CDM projects with non-CDM projects, which are by definition not additional. We find strong evidence that the majority of CDM projects are not additional, suggesting that a large share of CDM carbon credits does not represent real emission reductions. Furthermore, the more profitable projects are, the more likely they are to receive carbon credits. Hence, the CDM is doing the opposite of its objective function, i.e. supporting projects that would have existed anyway rather than inframarginal projects.

• Lundi 3 octobre 2016 12:30-14:00

  BELLEFLAMME Paul (Université catholique de Louvain) : Tax Incidence on Competing Two-Sided Platforms: Lucky Break or Double Jeopardy

  Eric Toulemonde

  Texte intégral [pdf]

• Lundi 19 septembre 2016 12:00-14:00

  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment G, rez-de-chaussée, salle 10

  NUNEZ ROCHA Thais (Université Paris 1, Panthéon Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics) : Legislation versus Treaties: the effect on environmental outcomes in an open economy and On the Pro-Competitive Effects of Vertical Mergers in Two-Sided Markets

  POUYET Jérôme (CNRS – PSE)

  Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso

• 0000

  Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris

  DUGOUA Eugenie (LSE) : *

• 0000

  LUJALA Paivi (University of Oulu) : Follow the leader: Using videos to make information on resource revenue management more relevant

  Résumé

  How can citizens be motivated to demand accountability in the management of public revenues? We use a video survey experiment to provide information, and employ role models to provide encouragement and motivation to act. The experiment focused on petroleum revenue management in Ghana and included over 2300 respondents. Providing information significantly increased satisfaction with current revenue management, though treated participants remained dissatisfied on average. We also found increased intention to demand more accountability through greater debate. The role models had an additional effect: they increased the sense that an individual can influence how petroleum revenues are used; the intention to contact media and to vote differently to ensure better accountability. These changes, however, did not persist, and a follow-up with 925 respondents 2.5 years later later showed few differences between the control and the treated groups. The experiment demonstrates that providing relevant information affects attitudes and planned behavior in the short term, and that role models give valuable encouragement for behavioral change.

  Texte intégral [pdf]