Séminaires

Séminaire Trade Economists in Paris (STEP)

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Prochainement

• Mardi 22 octobre 2024 13:00-14:00

  Science Po

  LAFROGNE-JOUSSIER Raphael (CREST-Ecole Polytechnique) : *

• Mardi 26 novembre 2024 13:00-14:00

  PONCET Sandra (PSE) : *

• Mardi 11 février 2025 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  MÉJEAN Isabelle (Science Po) : *

• Mardi 18 mars 2025 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  XIE Dan (PSE) : *

• Mardi 29 avril 2025 12:30-13:30

  R2-21

  OLLIVIER Hélène (CNRS & PSE) : *

Archives

• Mardi 24 septembre 2024 14:00-15:00

  Science Po

  CORCOS Gregory (ENSAE & Polytechnique) : Firm-level export and import survival over the business cycle

  Silviano Esteve-Pérez, Salvador Gil-Pareja and Yuanzhe Tang

  Résumé

  This paper examines how business cycle conditions affect the dynamics of exporting and importing firms, using micro-level data on trade spells initiated by French firms over the period 1998-2015. First, we find evidence of firm reallocation during recessions. Entry rates fall while exit rates increase. Both entrants and exiters exhibit higher productivity, suggesting tougher selection into export and import participation. Second, business cycle conditions at times of entry have persistent effects on exporters and importers: cohorts ’born’ in recessions have a systematically lower exit rate at any age. They also exhibit persistently different characteristics from firms that enter in better times. In the case of exports, cohorts born at recessions and booms display a similar age-dependence path. In other words, firms entering export markets in a recession enjoy a one-off premium to their spell duration prospects. Third, conclusions are largely unaffected when we use a joint model of export and import duration. Our estimates reveal a positive correlation in the unobservable factors explaining both decisions. To put it simply, exporters-importers tend to have either short-short or long-long spells. Overall, our results suggest that business cycle conditions affect trade participation in the short- and long-run, with recessions having both ’cleansing’ and ’scarring’ effects.

• Mardi 21 mai 2024 13:00-14:00

  R1-13

  BOEHM Johannes (IHEID) : Trade and the End of Antiquity

  Thomas Chaney

  Résumé

  What caused the end of antiquity, the shift of economic activity away from the Mediterranean towards Northern Europe? Henri Pirenne (1939) proposes that it was caused by the disruption of trade linkages following the Arab conquests of Northern Africa and Iberia by the Arabs and the associated loss of Byzantine naval power in the Western Mediterranean. To test the ‘Pirenne Thesis’ we assemble a large database of coin flows between the 4th and 10th century which we study through the lens of a dynamic gravity model of trade. Coins gradually diffuse alongside trade linkages. Coins contain information on the date and place of minting, which allows us to reconstruct trade flows from data on the spatial and temporal distribution of coins found in coin hoards. We estimate changes in trade costs arising from changing political and religious borders following the Arab conquests. Border effects can explain the relative decline of the eastern Mediterranean, but not the increased urbanization in Muslim Spain and in the Frankish lands. These patterns can be explained when we further account for technological change and for increased mint output. The estimated model points to the large effects that geopolitical changes can have by disrupting long-distance trade.

• Mardi 23 avril 2024 13:00-14:00

  R1-13

  PRAETORIUS Sophie (Science Po) : Collaboration in Technology and Multinational Production

  Résumé

  This paper studies how inter-firm collaboration in technology relates to global production choices. Building a structural multinational production model that incorporates technology choices and allows for collaboration when choosing the optimal assembly location for a given variety that is sold in a specific destination market, I find that both technology choice and sharing of platforms as input technology have important effects on the cost, and, thus, the expected profits of firms. Conditional on technology, a firm’s cost of serving a market increases by 1% compared to a scenario where firm choices are agnostic to input technology. On the other hand, allowing for collaboration reduces their cost by 4%. These effects propagate through the firm’s entry choices and, thus, shape the global production landscape

• Mardi 26 mars 2024 13:00-14:00

  R1-13

  ANDRIEU Elodie (PSE) : Multi-establishment Firm Structure, Subsidies and Spillovers

  John Morrow

  Résumé

  How do firms diffuse resources, and does this result in spillovers far from headquarters? We show subsidies induce French firms to hire new workers, mainly in new establishments and often in new commuting zones, with little evidence of reallocation. The most hiring responsive occupations are techies and support workers in line with R&D targeting. We estimate a subsidy employment spillover elasticity of .11 at the commuting zone level within industry, but weak effects in the commuting zone. Dispersed industries have half this elasticity and concentrated industries twice this elasticity. While subsidies are awarded to headquarters in advanced areas, firms redistribute effects more broadly.

• Mardi 27 février 2024 13:00-14:00

  R2-20

  PARENTI Mathieu (PSE & INRAE) : An economic analysis of extra-territorial tax policy

  G. Zucman

• Mercredi 1er novembre 2023

  TORDEUX VIOLAINE : Seminar of Trade Economists in Paris