Migration is a major aspect of globalization and is increasingly at the center of the public and policy debate. How does climate change affect migration? What is the relationship between migration, other dimensions of globalization, and development? What are the public finance and demographic effect of immigration for the host countries? What are the effects of immigration on the labor market? How do host societies adapt to increasingly diverse population? We will address these questions, as well as the econometric challenges of identifying them.
- Macroeconomic effects of migration for host countries – Hippolyte d’Albis (4.5 hours)
- Migration, Globalization and Development: Political Economy and Cultural Economics – Hillel Rapoport (6 hours)
- Migration and Economic Development – Clément Imbert (4.5 hours)
- Immigration, Labor Markets, Productivity, Entrepreneurship and Firms – Giovanni Peri (3 hours)
- Assessing the causal effect of immigration: focus on methods – Giovanni Peri (3 hours)
- Migration and Climate Change – Katrin Millock (3 hours)
Workshop: present your paper
Participants will have the opportunity to submit a paper to be presented within this program. The submitted paper should be a work produced by the participant (e.g. Master’s dissertation, policy work or research paper for PhD students). Selected pieces will be presented (in 30 minutes) in front of participants and faculty over three slots of 1.5 hours each.
Macroeconomic effects of migration for host countries – Hippolyte d’Albis
The objective of this theme is to study the macroeconomic impacts of migration for host countries, and most notably for rich countries with aging population. The effects of flows of immigrants will be first analysed on the age structure of the population and the labour market. Then, the induced consequences on output, public finances and inequalities will be analysed. Both theoretical intuitions (based on standard neoclassical models extended to account for migration) and empirical findings (based on VAR estimates) will be presented.
d’Albis, H., Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. (2018). Macroeconomic Evidence Suggests that Asylum Seekers are not a “Burden” for Western European Countries, Science Advances Vol. 4, no. 6, eaaq0883
d’Albis, H., Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. (2019). Immigration and Public Finances in OECD Countries. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 99, 116-151.
d’Albis, H., Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. (2021). Demographic Changes and the Labor Income Share. European Economic Review 131, 103614
Borjas, J. (2020). Immigration and Economic Growth, in Prospects for Economic Growth in the United States, edited by John W. Diamond and George R. Zodrow, Cambridge University Press.
Dustmann, C., Frattini, T. (2014). The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK. Economic Journal 124, F593-643.
Vella, E., Caballé, J., Llull, J. (2020) Understanding Migration with Macroeconomics. Palgrave Macmillan.
Migration, Globalization and Development: Political Economy and Cultural Economics - Hillel Rapoport
How does migration affect the political and cultural evolution of countries? This short course will address the following questions: how does emigration affects the political evolution of sending countries? And: Does migration make sending and receiving countries culturally more similar or more dissimilar (cultural convergence/divergence). To answer the first question we will rely on two emigration historical episodes, one characterized by strong political self-selection (Hirschman’s “exit”) and one by social remittances. To answer the second question we use a theoretical model of cultural transmission with migration allowing to disentangle various candidate mechanisms and test the predictions of that model on cross-country bilateral data.
1. Emigration and Political Change
2. Migration and Cultural Integration
Students must prepare for the class by reading the required articles (denoted by **).
Part 1: Emigration and Political Change
Barsbai, Toman, Hillel Rapoport, Andreas Steinmayr and Christoph Trebesch (2017): The effect of labor migration on the diffusion of democracy: evidence from a former Soviet Republic, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, July.
Barsbai, Toman and Hillel Rapoport (2020): “Exit and Voice: Germany, 1848-1933”, Mimeo (presentation slides).
Batista, C., and P. Vicente (2011). Do Migrants Improve Governance at Home? Evidence from a Voting Experiment. World Bank Economic Review, 25(1), 77-104.
Bazzi, S., Fiszbein, M., & Gebresilasse, M. (2020). Frontier culture: The roots and persistence of “rugged individualism” in the United States. Econometrica.
Chauvet, L., and M. Mercier (2014). Migration and Elections in Mali. Does Migration Promote Democratization in Africa?, Journal of Comparative Economics.
Docquier, F., E. Lodigiani, H. Rapoport, and M. Schiff (2016). Emigration and Democracy, Journal of Development Economics.
Spilimbergo, A. (2009): Foreign students and democracy, American Economic Review.
Part 2: Migration and cultural integration
Rapoport, H., A. Silve and S. Sardoschau (2021): Migration and cultural change. IZA Discussion Paper No 14772, October 2021. https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp14772.html
Abramitzky, R., Boustan, L. P., & Eriksson, K. (2014). A nation of immigrants: Assimilation and economic outcomes in the age of mass migration. Journal of Political Economy, 122(3).
Alesina, A. & Giuliano, P. (2015). Culture and institutions. Journal of Economic Literature, 53(4), 898–944.
Beck Knudsen, Anne-Sofie (2020): Those who stayed: Individualism, self-selection and cultural change during the age of mass migration, Working Paper, Lund University.
Beine, M., F. Docquier, and M. Schiff (2013). International Migration, Transfer of Norms and Home Country Fertility, Canadian Journal of Economics.
Casari, Marco, Andrea Ichino, Moti Michaeli, Maria De Paola and Vincenzo Scoppa, 2019. Civicness drain, CEPR Discussion Paper 13311, November. http://www.andreaichino.it/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/civicness_drain.pdf
Clingingsmith, D., A. Khwaja, and M. Kremer (2009). Estimating the Impact of the Hajj: Religion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Gathering, Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Daudin, Guillaume, Raphael Franck and Hillel Rapoport (2019): Can intenal migration foster the convergence in regional fertility rates? Evidence from 19th century France. Economic Journal.
Giuliano, Paola and Marco Tabellini (2021): “The seeds of ideology: historical immigration and political preferences in the United States”, Working Paper.
Jarotschkin, Alexandra, Antonela Miho and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (2021): Diffusion of Gender Norms: Evidence from Stalin’s Ethnic Deportations. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3417682
Karadja, Mounir and Erik Prawitz (2019): “Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence
Migration and economic development – Clément Imbert
Migration is a key feature of economic development, with workers leaving agriculture in rural areas to work in manufacturing and services in urban areas. As a result, the majority of the world’s migrants come from rural areas of developing countries. While most of them live in cities within the same country, many also live abroad. What are the consequences of rural-urban migration for the migrants themselves? For the cities of destination? For the villages of origin? We will discuss the economic literature on rural migrants from developing countries, whether internal or international, permanent or seasonal migrants, and present experimental and non-experimental evidence.
Bryan, G., S. Chowdhury, and A. M. Mobarak (2014). Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh. Econometrica 82, 1671_1748.
Bryan, G. and M. Morten (2019). The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Political Economy 127 (5), 2229_2268.
Bustos, P., J. M. Castro Vincenzi, J. Monras, and J. Ponticelli (2018, December).
Structural Transformation, Industrial Specialization, and Endogenous Growth. CEPR Discussion Papers 13379, .
Dinkelman T. and M. Mariotti (2016). The Long-Run Effects of Labor Migration on Human Capital Formation in Communities of Origin, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 1-35, October.
Imbert, C. and J. Papp (2020). Costs and benefits of rural-urban migration: Evidence from India. Journal of Development Economics 146 (C).
Imbert, C. and J. Papp (2020). Short-term Migration, Rural Public Works, and Urban Labor Markets: Evidence from India. Journal of the European Economic Association 18 (2), 927_963.
Imbert, C., M. Seror, Y. Zylberberg, and Y. Zhang (2020). Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China. Warwick Economics Research Paper Series 1254, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
Mobarak, A. M., I. Sharif I. and M. Shrestha, “Returns to International Migration: Evidence from a Bangladesh-Malaysia Visa Lottery,”
Lagakos, D., S. Marshall, A. M. Mobarak, C. Vernot, and M. E. Waugh (2020). Migration costs and observational returns to migration in the developing world. Journal of Monetary Economics 113 (C), 138_154.
Lagakos, D., M. Mobarak, and M. Waugh (2018). The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration. Working Papers 2018-002, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
Lagakos, D. (2020). Urban-Rural Gaps in the Developing World: Does Internal Migration Offer Opportunities? Journal of Economic Perspectives 34 (3), 174192.
Immigration, Labor Markets, Productivity, Entrepreneurship and Firms – Giovanni Peri
The aim of these two classes will be to understand the consequences of immigrants on the labor market of the host country. Immigrants can act as substitute or complement to natives, which may affect labor supply and wages in different ways. In addition, by bringing new or complementary skills to the host labor market, immigrants may influence firm productivity. Overall, immigrants are likely to have large and sizable effects on the structure and the functioning of firms and the labor market more generally in the host country. We will investigate these questions both theoretically and empirically, paying particular attention to the methodological challenges raised by these questions.
- Basic model of labor market effect of immigrants: Labor markets and skills
- The task approach
- Dynamic responses in the labor markets
- Impact on productivity, entrepreneurship and firms: empirical analysis and results
Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2012. “Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages,” Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 152-197, February.
Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2009. “Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 135-169, July.
Cristina Cattaneo, Carlo V. Fiorio and Giovanni Peri, 2015. “What Happens to the Careers of European Workers When Immigrants Take Their Jobs ?,” Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 655-693.
Mette Foged and Giovanni Peri, 2016. “Immigrants’ Effect on Native Workers: New Analysis on Longitudinal Data,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.
Andreas Beerli & Jan Ruffner & Michael Siegenthaler & Giovanni Peri, 2021. “The Abolition of Immigration Restrictions and the Performance of Firms and Workers: Evidence from Switzerland,” American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 976-1012, March.
Gianluca Orefice & Giovanni Peri, 2020. “Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching,” NBER Working Papers 26860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Assessing the causal effect of immigration: focus on methods – Giovanni Peri
The aim of these two classes is to dig deeper into the methods used in estimating the impact of immigration. First, we will analyze the instrumental variable method using a shift-share and we will follow the criticism and the recent evolution of this IV strategy. Then we will introduce methods used to analyze natural quasi-experiment and policies as tools to learn about the impact of immigration.
- The shift-share IV method
- Criticism and evolution of shift-share
Giovanni Peri & Kevin Shih & Chad Sparber, 2015. “STEM Workers, H-1B Visas, and Productivity in US Cities,” Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(S1), pages 225-255.
Jaeger, Ruist, Stuhler (2017) “Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration” NBER Working Paper, November 2017.
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. “Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How,” American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
Giovanni Peri & Vasil Yasenov, 2019. “The Labor Market Effects of a Refugee Wave: Synthetic Control Method Meets the Mariel Boatlift,” Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 267-309.
Michael A. Clemens & Ethan G. Lewis & Hannah M. Postel, 2017. “Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion,” NBER Working Papers 23125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Migration and Climate Change – Katrin Millock
This course aims at understanding mobility responses to climate change and migration as a means of adaptation to climate change.
The course will focus on the measures of climate change and weather variations and the main econometric methods that are used to identify their influence on migration. We will study theoretical models that depart from standard models of migration decisions by including temperature shocks as a parameter. The spectrum of models covered will include the random utility model and its empirical counterpart (the gravity model), and general equilibrium models. We will also review the literature on empirical estimates: what do the empirical studies predict? We will discuss the recent approaches to better model the mechanisms underlying this specific form of adaptation, and the relation of migration to other adaptation strategies.
The course thus intends to give participants an understanding of the methods used, their assumptions, and challenges in identifying mobility responses to climate change.
- Analyzing the effects of climate change on migration: theory and empirical identification. How do we measure climate change impacts on migration using weather data?
- Who are the climate migrants and why do they migrate? Modelling of the underlying mechanisms, and in situ adaptation choices.
Beine M., Parsons, C. (2015). “Climatic factors as determinants of international migration.” The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 117(2): 723-767.
Benonnier, T., Millock, K., Taraz, V. (2021). “Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: The role of irrigation.” Forthcoming at Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy.
Bohra-Mishra P, Oppenheimer, M., Hsiang, S. (2014). “Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111: 9780-9785.
Cattaneo, C., Peri, G. (2016). “The migration response to increasing temperatures.” Journal of Development Economics 122(C): 127-146.
Cattaneo, C., Beine, M., Fröhlich, C., Kniveton, D., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Mastrorillo, M., Millock, K., Piguet, E, Schraven, B. (2019). “Human migration in the era of climate change.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 13(2): 189-206.
Dallmann, I., Millock, K. (2017). “Climate variability and inter-state migration in India.” CESifo Economic Studies 63(4): 560-594.
Hornbeck, R. (2020). “Dust Bowl Migrants: Identifying an Archetype.” NBER Working Papers 27656.
Mahajan, P., Yang, D. (2020). “Taken by storm: hurricanes and migrant networks.” - American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 12(2): 250-277.
Contents - Migration Economics