Understanding the link between local context and political outcomes

Workshop

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Location 48 Boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, France

Location R2-20

Presence On site

Hourly –

The Paris School of Economics is glad to invite you to the "Understanding the link between local context and political outcomes" workshop organized by the Opening Economics Chair.

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Program

13:00-13:45 – Ansgar Hudde (University of Cologne)
Political Segregation and Diversity in the Neighbourhood: The Small-Scale Geography of Voting Patterns in Germany

Abstract

The book project aims to provide a comprehensive overview of geographic voting patterns in Germany, based on neighbourhood-level data. Such fine-grained data capture people’s everyday experiences and conversation networks much better than, for example, data at the regional- or county-level. As guiding heuristic to understanding variation in local voting patterns, I present a cluster and typology approach. In a multiparty system like Germany, local voting patterns are complex, and single-variable information, such as which party wins the most votes, gives only limited insight into people’s voting behaviour. I use voting data from the German federal elections up to 2021 at the level of the ca. 100,000 on-site and postal ballot districts (‘neighbourhoods’) and use Latent Class Analysis to identify four types of neighbourhoods based on each party’s local vote share. I will then analyse the types of neighbourhoods along three dimensions: (1) politically left vs. right, (2) segregated vs. integrated/representative, and (3) homogeneous vs. diverse. The typology aligns remarkably well with geography, in particular the urban-rural continuum, East-West differences, and centre-periphery patterns within major cities. Overall, the analyses aim to provide a thorough and accessible examination of Germany’s political geography and social structure through the lens of voting behaviour.

13:45-14:30 – Thepthida Sopraseuth (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA)
Political consequences of job polarization: Evidence from French local labor markets and technology shocks

Abstract

We study the impact of labor market polarization, characterized by a strong decrease in the proportion of routine occupations, on electoral outcomes and propensity to vote for extreme candidates. Polarization strongly impacts the economic opportunities of the “middle class” and has been found to hurt low educated individuals who are unable to find middle skilled well paid jobs and are reallocated into manual occupations. This process of occupational downgrading may generate some frustrations in society. Using OLS fixed effects and IV settings, we show that the decrease in the proportion of routine jobs within French local labor markets had a positive impact on far-right vote shares but no robust impact on extreme left. Our IV strategy takes advantage of the initial local specialization in routine jobs and technology shocks at the national level which have impacted areas differently according to their initial specialization.

14:30-14:45 – Pause

14:45-15:30 – Diane Bolet (University of Essex)
The Electoral Consequences of Agricultural Subsidies in Rural Areas: Evidence from France

Abstract

Can generous public policies mitigate rural backlash amid a deepening geographical divide? We test predictions from policy feedback theory within a crucial yet overlooked rural group: farmers. Despite receiving substantial financial support, it is unclear how farmers respond electorally to their subsidy allocation. Using French administrative data on EU Common Agricultural Policy funding, matched with sectoral, regional, national, and European election results, we find that an increase in overall funding can reduce radical right support in rural areas, while a decrease in funding has the opposite effect. This suggests that targeted policies can mitigate radical right electoral behavior, even in rural areas and among traditionally right-leaning groups. We further explore the underlying mechanisms through a survey experiment of 1,584 farmers conducted in 2024, which links economic loss and cultural grievance with a sense of lack of recognition by the rest of society.

15:30-16:00 – Final roundtable and conclusion

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The Opening Economics Chair allows economists to respond in creative and effective ways to the major questions of our times, by integrating two observations: that current challenges, complex and multifaceted as they are, demand an approach that transcends disciplinary boundaries, and that economics research must be renewed by advances made in other related disciplines.

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Paris School of Economics

Address: 48 boulevard jourdan 75014 Paris