François Bourguignon

We explore the implications of allowing a poverty-averse donor to monitor aid use within the familiar context of the needs vs. aid effectiveness tradeoff. The paper focuses on the optimal aid allocation between two countries when the donor simultaneously decides about aid shares and country-specific monitoring effort aimed at increasing the amount reaching the poor. Endogenizing aid effectiveness is shown to raise the poor’s income in the worse-governed country, yet not necessarily in the better-governed one, whereas the effect on country aid shares is essentially ambiguous. Those results still hold when the basic model is extended in various directions. Conventional aid allocation rules should be re-examined in their light.

Drawing on a comprehensive compilation of quantile shares and inequality measures for 34 countries, including over 5,600 estimated Gini coefficients, we review the measurement of income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean over the last seven decades. We find that there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding inequality levels for the same country/year combinations. Differences in inequality levels estimated from household surveys alone are present but they derive from differences in the construction of the welfare indicator, the unit of analysis, or the treatment of the data. With harmonized household surveys, the discrepancies are quite small. The range, however, expands significantly when to correct for undercoverage and underreporting especially at the top of the distribution inequality estimates come from some combination of surveys and administrative tax data. The range increases even further when survey-based income aggregates are scaled to achieve consistency not only with tax registries but with National Accounts. Since no single method to correct for underreporting at the top is fully convincing at present, we are left with (often wide) ranges, or bands, of inequality as our best summaries of inequality levels. Reassuringly, however, the dynamic patterns are generally robust across the bands. Although the evidence roughly until the 1970s is too fragmentary and difficult to compare, clearer patterns emerge for the last fifty years. The main feature is a broad inverted U curve, with inequality rising in most countries prior to and often during the 1990s, and falling during the early 21st century, at least until around 2015, when trends appear to diverge across countries. This pattern is broadly robust but features considerable variation in timing and magnitude depending on the country.

We study decennial anonymous and non‐anonymous growth incidence curves in the United States during the past 50 years. The former show income growth by quantile independent of initial incomes and are typically upward sloping, reflecting increasing inequality. The latter are conditional on initial ranks and are flat or downward sloping. This suggests distributional neutrality of growth when accounting for initial income positions. We explain this difference by decomposing the non‐anonymous curves into mobility and shape components. The former is always downward sloping, whereas the latter is upward sloping in periods of increasing inequality. Thus, flat non‐anonymous curves can be observed even with increasing inequality. We exploit the decomposition to show that the slope of non‐anonymous curves in the United States is determined by the evolution of cross‐sectional income distributions. This enables inferring the shape of non‐anonymous curves from cross‐sectional data and test them for a generalized pro‐poorness social welfare criterion.

Bangladesh is widely seen as a ‘paradox’. Over the last quarter of a century, it has maintained economic growth and has outperformed many countries on social indicators while scoring very low on the quality of governance. Moreover, its economic progress does not seem to indicate significant improvement in comparative institutional indicators. Is the Bangladesh Paradox Sustainable? thus examines whether such a paradoxical combination can be sustained in the long run if growth continues with no improvement in the quality of institutions. It argues that although Bangladesh has become the second largest world exporter in the garments, export diversification is needed, both within and outside the garment sector, if it is to maintain its development pace. Based on a thorough account of the country’s economic, social and political development, this companion volume analyzes Bangladesh’s critical institution- and development-sensitive areas such as the garment sector, banking, taxation, land management, the judiciary, and education.