Publications by PSE researchers

This paper identifies export accelerations at the country pair-product level that are large enough to drive aggregate export growth in the medium run. In a sample of 100 countries, these export “big hits” are rare, less than 2 percent of all export spells, yet account for over two-thirds of export growth in a given country. The paper then explores their microfoundations using matched customs-census firm-level data for France. We find that typically, two firms are sufficient to generate a big hit and these firms’ access to external financing is key to their ability to drive export success. Moreover, big hits spread within firms across destinations and products. Our results offer new evidence on the granularity of export growth by linking micro-level entrepreneurial decisions with country-level export outcomes.

We present a model for research and development (R&D) investment in food innovations based on new plant engineering techniques (NPETs) and traditional hybridization methods. The framework combines uncertain and costly food innovation with consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food. The framework is applied with elicited WTP of French and US consumers for new improved apples. NPETs may be socially beneficial under full information and when the probability of success under NPETs is relatively high. Otherwise, the traditional hybridization is socially optimal. A probable collapse of conventional apples raises the social desirability of new apples generated by NPETs and traditional hybridization.

Introduction There is a lack of quantitative evidence on the role of food innovations—new food ingredients and processing techniques—in the nutrition transition. Objective Document the distribution of food innovations across 67 high-income (HIC) and middle-income (MIC) countries between 1970 and 2010, and its association with the nutritional composition of food supply. Methods We used all available data on food patents, as compiled by the European Patent Office, to measure food innovations. We considered innovations directly received by countries from inventors seeking protection in their territories, and those embedded in processed food imports. Food and Agricultural Organization data were used to estimate the associations between international diffusion of food innovations and trends in total food supply and its macronutrient composition, after adjusting for confounding trends in demand-side factors. We identified the role of trade by simulating the changes in average diet due to innovations embedded in food imports. Results Trends in food innovations were positively and significantly associated with changes in daily per capita calorie supply available for human consumption in MIC between 1990 and 2010 (elasticity of 0.027, 95% CI 0.019 to 0.036). Food innovations were positively correlated with the share of animal and free fats in total food supply (elasticities of 0.044, 95% CI 0.030 to 0.058 for MIC between 1970 and 1989 and 0.023, 95% CI 0.003 to 0.043 for HIC between 1990 and 2010). Food innovations were associated with substitutions from complex carbohydrates towards sugars in total food supply for MIC after 1990 (elasticities of −0.037, 95% CI −0.045 to −0.029 for complex carbs, 0.082, 95% CI 0.066 to 0.098 for sugars). For these countries, the trade channel capturing access to innovations through imports of processed food played a key role. Conclusion Policy-makers should consider the impacts of the international diffusion of food innovations in assessing the costs and benefits of international trade regulations.

We examine whether standards raise the quality of traded products. Matching a panel of French firm–product–destination export data with a data set on sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade, we find that such quality standards enforced on products by destination countries: (i) favour the export probability of high-quality firms provided that their productivity is high enough, (ii) raise the export sales of high-productivity, high-quality firms at the expense of low-productivity and low-quality firms and (iii) increase the quality supplied by firms if their productivity is high enough. We then develop a simple new trade model under uncertainty about product quality in which heterogeneous firms can strategically invest in quality signalling to rationalize these empirical results on quality and selection effects.

New plant engineering techniques (NPETs) may significantly improve both production and quality of foods. Some consumers and regulators around the world might be reluctant to accept such products and the global market penetration of these products may remain low. We develop a parsimonious economic model for R&D investment in food innovations to identify conditions under which NPET technology emerges in the context of international trade. The framework integrates consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food, the uncertainty of R&D processes, the associated regulatory cost of approval, and the competition between domestic and foreign products. With generic applicability, the model enables the quantitative analysis of new foods that could be introduced in markets and then traded across borders. We apply the framework to a hypothetical case of apples improved with NPETs. Simulation results suggest that import bans and high values of sunk cost can reduce R&D investment in NPETs to suboptimal levels.

New Plant Engineering Techniques (NPETs) have path-breaking potential to improve foods by strengthening their production, increasing resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses, and by bettering their appearance and nutritional quality. Can NPETs-based foods succeed in the marketplace? Providing answers to this question, we first develop a simple economic model for R&D investment in food innovations based on NPETs and traditional hybridization methods, to identify which technology emerges under various parameter characterizations and associated economic welfare outcomes. The framework combines the cost of food innovation with consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food, highlighting the uncertain and costly nature of R&D processes as well as the role of consumer acceptance of technology, and the cost of ignorance, and regret, if consumers are not fully informed on the technology used to generate the new food. We then apply the framework to a case of NPETs-based new apples using recently elicited WTP of French and US consumers. Our simulation results suggest that NPETs may be socially beneficial under full information, and when the probability of success under NPETs is significantly higher than under traditional hybridization. Otherwise, the innovation based on traditional hybridization is socially optimal. A probable collapse of conventional apples raises the social desirability of new apples generated by NPETs and traditional hybridization.

We compare consumers’ attitude towards and willingness to pay (WTP) for gene-edited (GE) apples in Europe and the US. Using hypothetical choices in a lab and different technology messages, we estimate WTP of 162 French and 166 US consumers for new apples, which do not brown upon being sliced or cut. Messages center on (i) the social and private benefits of having the new apples, and (ii) possible technologies leading to this new benefit (conventional hybrids, GE, and genetically modified (GMO)). French consumers do not value the innovation and actually discount it when it is generated via biotechnology. US consumers do value the innovation as long as it is not generated by biotechnology. In both countries, the steepest discount is for GMO apples, followed by GE apples. Furthermore, the discounting occurs through “boycott” consumers who dislike biotechnology. However, the discounting is weaker for US consumers compared to French consumers. Favorable attitudes towards sciences and new technology totally offset the discounting of GE apples.

New Plant Engineering Techniques (NPETs) may significantly improve both production and quality of foods. Consumers and regulators around the world might be reluctant to accept such products, which may cripple adoption and global market penetration of these products. We develop a parsimonious economic model for R&D investment in food innovations to identify conditions under which NPET technology emerges in a context of international trade. The framework integrates consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food, the uncertainty of R&D processes, the associated regulatory cost of approval, and the competition between domestic and foreign products. With generic applicability, the model enables the quantitative analysis of new foods that could be introduced in markets and then traded across borders. We apply the framework to a hypothetical case of apples improved with NPETs. Simulation results suggest that import bans and high values of sunk costs can reduce R&D investment in NPETs to suboptimal levels.

Public procurement represents a substantial share of gross domestic product (GDP) in many countries, and is notoriously home-biased as a result of often opaque practices. However, little is known about the determinants of restrictions on public procurement policies. To explore this issue, we map information from the Global Trade Alert (GTA) database on regulatory obstacles to public procurement alongside international trade flows at the country pair-product level and applied bilateral tariffs. Considering the universe of restrictions introduced over the period 2009-2016 by importers on exporters and products, we highlight three novel facts. First, the main foreign providers are not the most targeted, suggesting long-term contractual relationships between buyers and sellers in public markets. Second, the ear of retaliation is alleviating the protectionist pressure in the importer country. Third, we document substitutability between public procurement restrictions and tariffs.

We show that economic uncertainty in foreign markets affects firms’ economic decisions, particularly those of the most productive firms. Using export data at both the industry and firm levels, we uncover two empirical regularities. First, demand uncertainty in foreign markets affects export entry/exit decisions (extensive margin) and export sales (intensive margin). If all destination countries exhibited the lowest volatility observed across destinations, then total French exports would rise by approximately 18% (an increase primarily driven by the extensive margin). Second, the most productive exporters are more affected by a higher industry-wide expenditure volatility than are the least productive exporters. The 25% most productive firms export, on average, 27% more in value than the 25% least productive firms in less volatile markets, while this difference decreases to 12% in the most volatile markets.

Avec l’ouverture des économies et le développement des échanges internationaux croissent les craintes des consommateurs de voir arriver sur le marché national des produits de piètre qualité et potentiellement dangereux pour la santé humaine ou l’environnement. Afin d’assurer un niveau de sécurité adéquat, l’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) autorise les pays à mettre en œuvre différentes normes sanitaires et techniques. Sur le principe, ces normes ne doivent pas être protectionnistes, néanmoins, certains décideurs publics peuvent être tentés de les utiliser pour protéger les producteurs domestiques de la concurrence étrangère.Quel est l’effet réel de ces normes sur le bien-être des consommateurs et sur les flux de commerce entre pays ? Leurs définitions et applications sont-elles influencées par certains groupes de pression pour leur propre profit ?À partir des résultats de recherches menées depuis près de deux décennies, l’auteure propose plusieurs pistes d’action, tant pour une meilleure coordination des réglementations entre les pays que pour une meilleure insertion des pays en développement dans la politique réglementaire internationale.

A Practical Guide to the Economic Analysis of Non-Tariff Measures is a joint-publication by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the World Trade Organization. This publication provides the main tools for the analysis and empirical assessment of the trade effects of Non-Tariff Measures. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, this publication outlines the major concepts of the economic analysis of Non-Tariff Measures and contains practical guidance on how to apply them to concrete policy questions.