A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France

Journal article: Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labour market. A 1999 rise in the French layoff tax paid by large private firms when they laid off older workers made younger workers less secure; this insecurity reduced their fertility by 3.7 percentage points (with a 95% confidence interval between 0.7 and 6.6 percentage points). Reduced fertility is only found at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.

Author(s)

Andrew E. Clark, Anthony Lepinteur

Journal
  • Review of Economics and Statistics
Date of publication
  • 2022
Keywords JEL
I38 J13 J18
Keywords
  • Employment protection
  • Layoff tax
  • Perceived Job Security
  • Difference-in-Differences
  • Fertility
Pages
  • 386-398
Version
  • 1
Volume
  • 104