Aggregation of experts’ opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point

Journal article: This paper considers the issue of aggregation of experts' opinions expressed through not necessarily independent and even conflicting probability distributions or multiple priors. The paper addresses the elicitation of the consensus distribution by introducing the Steiner point of the set of all common distributions among experts and derives its conditional probabilities on future events.

Author(s)

Marcello Basili, Alain Chateauneuf

Journal
  • International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Date of publication
  • 2020
Keywords
  • Epsilon contamination capacities
  • Steiner point
  • Full Bayesian updating
  • Multiple priors
  • Capacities
  • Consensus distribution
Pages
  • 17-25
Version
  • 1
Volume
  • 123