Crisis, Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from China in Transformation

Pre-print, Working paper: This paper aims to investigate the intensity and the effectiveness of the capital controls in China from 2003 to 2010, with special attention to the period of financial turbulence that erupted in the summer of 2007. We employ a two-regime threshold autoregressive model to study the Renminbi yield differential between the onshore interest rate and its non-deliverable forward (NDF)-implied offshore interest rate. We find that the de facto intensity of capital controls measured by the threshold increases over time, even during the period of financial turbulence. Moreover, a slightly lower speed of adjustment to the threshold implies that the capital controls are effective in this context.

Author(s)

Jinzhao Chen

Date of publication
  • 2012
Keywords JEL
C32 F21 F31 F32
Keywords
  • Covered Interest Parity
  • Capital Control
  • China
  • Threshold Autoregressive model
  • GARCH effect
  • Financial Crisis
Internal reference
  • PSE Working Papers n°2012-01
Version
  • 1