Flexible time series models for subjective distribution estimation with monetary policy in view

Journal article: In this paper, we introduce a new approach to estimate the subjective distribution of the future short rate from the historical dynamics of futures, based on a model generated by a Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution, with dynamical parameters. The model displays time varying conditional volatility, skewness and kurtosis and provides a flexible framework to recover the conditional distribution of the future rates. For the estimation, we use maximum likelihood method. Then, we apply the model to Fed Fund futures and discuss its performance.

Author(s)

Dominique Guegan, Florian Ielpo

Journal
  • Brussels Economic Review
Date of publication
  • 2008
Keywords
  • Subjective distribution
  • Autoregressive conditional density
  • Generalized hyperbolic distribution
  • Fed Funds futures contracts
Pages
  • 79-103
Version
  • 1
Volume
  • 51