Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et “suppresseur classique”, aide au développement et croissance

Journal article: This paper shows that a multiple regression with two highly correlated explanatory variables, both of them with a near zero correlation with the dependent variable may correspond to a spurious regression or to a homeostatic model, with estimates highly sensible to outliers. The regression method does not allow how to decide which one of the two models is relevant. Statistical significance of the (very high) parameters is easily obtained, as shown doing Monte Carlo simulations. An example is provided by the Burnside and Dollar [2000] article on aid, policies and growth.

Author(s)

Jean-Bernard Chatelain, Kirsten Ralf

Journal
  • Revue Economique
Date of publication
  • 2012
Keywords JEL
C12 C52 F35 O47
Keywords
  • Spurious regression
  • Near-multicollinearity
  • Classical suppressor
  • Parameter inflation factor PIF
  • Aid
  • Economic growth
Pages
  • 557-568
Version
  • 1
Volume
  • 63