Journal article: In this paper, we build a model of earnings dynamics and estimate it on a representative three-year panel, the French Labour Force Survey. We use the model to simulate individual earnings trajectories beyond the period of observation, and to compute permanent income values. We measure the ratio between inequality in present values of lifetime earnings and current inequality. Thi.s ratio is less than one, showing that earnings mobility is equalizing. Morever. it is very sensitive to unemployement risk. Mobility reduces long-run inequality in a representative sample oí employed and unemployed workers, in large part because unemployment is a transitory state. In contrast, unemployment risk generates a lot of inequality in the sample of employed workers, and reduces by one half the equalizing force of earnings mobility.