Subjective Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Bangladesh

Master thesis: The aim of this paper is to analyze how subjective perceptions of climate change of farmers in Bangladesh affect the implementation of on-farm adaptation strategies to climate change. I present a model of subjective perceptions and adaptation in response to a change in climatic conditions. The empirical analysis is based on a unique national-representative panel dataset of rural households in Bangladesh and adopts a two-step approach disentangling the role of subjective perceptions on on-farm adaptation. I assess the accuracy of beliefs by comparing subjective probabilities to historical meteorological data and find considerable heterogeneity in beliefs and accuracy, depending on weather events and seasonal patterns. Moreover, I test whether farmers are subject to confirmation bias, finding that they tend to recall information and overweight evidence in a way that it confirms their own beliefs. The accuracy of farmers’ beliefs explains differences in the adaptation decision-making process. A detailed comprehension of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies can significantly contribute to the design of adequate policies for agricultural security.

Author(s)

Guglielmo Zappalà

Date of publication
  • 2020
Keywords
  • Adaptation
  • Agriculture and environment
  • Belief
  • Climate change
Date of defense
  • 01/07/2020
Thesis director(s)
  • Katrin Millock
Internal reference
  • PSE Master Thesis n°2020-05
Pages
  • 84
Version
  • 1