Un monde presque parfait
Journal article: In 2003, the world economy picked up again, after a bout of weakness in the first half of the year. Pulled by the US and the UK, growth spread to Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. It should stay over 4% in 2004 and 2005. The US should see their disequilibria (public and current deficits, household indebtedness) diminish. Growth should slow down from 4.5% in 2004 to 3.4% in 2005. By contrast, the euro zone should grow by only 1.4% and 2.1% in 2004 and 2005. The impact of the recent appreciation of euro (– 1 point of GDP growth in 2004) and a restrictive policy mix should hinder growth, whereas the economic situation — a trough as deep as in the early 80s and early 90s — should require an expansionary policy.
Author(s)
Xavier Timbeau, Hélène Baudchon, Odile Chagny, Valerie Chauvin, Guillaume Chevillon, Gael Dupont, Amel Falah, Eric Heyer, Sabine Le Bayon, Matthieu Lemoine, Catherine Mathieu, Paola Veroni, Hervé Péléraux, Mathieu Plane, Christine Rifflart, Danielle Schweisguth, Elena Stancanelli
Journal
- Revue de l’OFCE
Date of publication
- 2004
Keywords JEL
Keywords
- Croissance mondiale
- Déséquilibres
- Zone euro
Internal reference
- 2441/9labe9r4se65i789685qj0d3k
Pages
- 13-35
URL of the HAL notice
Version
- 1
Volume
- 2004/2