Seminars

Macro Workshop

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Upcoming events

• Thursday 3 October 11:00-11:30

  R1-15

  Eustache Elina (PSE)
  Labor Income Inequality and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

  Abstract

  We study the impact of the rise in inequality in the permanent component of labor income on the transmission of monetary shocks to the real economy. In a Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian model with preferences only on consumption, we show that the distribution of permanent labor income is neutral to monetary shocks. However, this model cannot account for the observed concave relationship between permanent income and consumption. Including a non-homothetic taste for wealth allows us to match that concavity, and breaks the neutrality result. The direct substitution effect from a monetary policy shock is weakened while indirect effects are bolstered. The rise in permanent labor income inequality makes households hold wealth more for a present motive rather than for an intertemporal-substitution motive. As a result, the aggregate elasticity of intertemporal substitution is lessened. As households are less forward-looking, the aggregate static MPC is strengthened. In a realistic two-asset HANK model, we quantify the change in the composition of a monetary shock. We observe a rise in the magnitude of monetary shocks as the increase in indirect effects more than outweighs the fall in the direct effect.

• Thursday 3 October 11:30-12:00

  R1-15

  Hugo Minnella (Le Mans University and CEPREMAP)
  Fiscal and Monetary interaction in the Eurozone with heterogeneous agents

  Abstract

  In this paper, we assess how heterogeneous agents may affect the determinacy properties of a two-country model for the Eurozone. We first make use of a stylized TANK2 framework to shed light on some key mechanisms that may alter the policy-mixes consistent with a unique saddle-path. In a second place, we move to a fully-fledged HANK2 model where the share of constrained agents is endogenous. In that framework, we show that depending on the calibration, the share of constrained agents may alter the policy-mixes consistent with a unique saddle-path of the dynamics. Finally, we lead some policy experiments that shed light on the fact that heterogeneous agents are not only important for the determinacy properties of our model but also for the assessment of shocks propagation both on macroeconomic aggregates and inequalities

Archives

• Thursday 13 June 12:30-13:00

  R1-16

  Selma Malmberg ( Le Mans University (GAINS-TEPP, IRA) and CEPREMAP)
  Income tax fluctuations and uncertainty in France

  Abstract

  Income tax policies in France have fluctuated considerably over time, mainly driven by changes in presidential leadership. I study the macroeconomic consequences of these fluctuations and the resulting fiscal uncertainty using a simple model of heterogeneous agents calibrated on French data. Aggregate uncertainty and a two-state stochastic fiscal regime capture this income tax uncertainty. This framework shows that income tax uncertainty generally generates recessive effects as labor supply, output, and welfare decrease compared to a deterministic setup. Moreover, this fiscal uncertainty interacts with micro-level income risk (i.e. the idiosyncratic productivities). This fiscal uncertainty is all the more detrimental to output and welfare when the pretax income volatility is high. Who suffers most from this tax uncertainty? While for low levels of aggregate uncertainty, the welfare losses are of roughly the same order of magnitude across the distribution, the bottom of the labor income distribution is particularly vulnerable when uncertainty increases.

• Thursday 13 June 12:00-12:30

  R1-16

  Charles Labrousse ( PSE)
  Optimal Carbon Taxes: Who Should You Tax?

  Abstract

  Abstract: The problem of the study is as follows: for a given objective of reducing GHG emissions, what is the optimal way of taxing different energy uses? Taxes can be differentiated between households and businesses, but also between rich and poor, rural and urban households, and between businesses in different sectors. We discuss analytical results using toy models. For our quantitative results, we build a multi-sector heterogeneous agent model calibrated on French micro data.

• Thursday 6 June 16:30-17:00

  R2-21

  Ornella Torres (PSE)
  Global Imbalances, Interest Rates and the Green Transition
  Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Katheline Schubert

  Abstract

  We develop a two-country growth model that helps shedding light on potential outcomes of the implementation of alternative climate policies. We study the impact on investment, savings and cross border flows.

• Thursday 6 June 16:00-16:30

  R2-21

  Grégoire Sempé (Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne)

  Abstract

  On the importance of horizontal heterogeneity for Climate Policies Abstract We study the impacts of carbon taxation across rural and urban households. Our dynamic model highlights two key factors contributing to the disparity in tax incidence: durable goods endowments and frictions to sectoral labor mobility

• Thursday 6 June 12:00-13:00

  R1-15

  Léonard Boquet (University of Cambridge)
  The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation

  Abstract

  There is growing concern that workers displaced by trade or technological shocks reallocate very slowly to other labor markets. However, still little is known about the factors shaping the speed of reallocation. In this paper, I represent bilateral reallocation frictions between labor markets as the edges of a network. First, I use administrative data on skills to construct a skill network, where nodes are occupations, and connections between them represent potential occupational transitions. I find that the skill network is sparse, but divided in tightly-connected clusters, and features a few bridge occupations, which connect clusters to one another. Second, I build a tractable model of job search with heterogeneous occupations connected by a skill network. The key new ingredient is that workers not only search for jobs within their own occupation but also search in adjacent occupations in the network. Drawing from recent advances on the theory distribution dynamics, I introduce a novel metric to quantify the speed of worker reallocation, and I provide an analytical characterization in a stylized example. The theory predicts that asymmetric shocks shifts lead to very slow realloction dynamics, and disproportionally more so when hires in central bridge occupations are low. Third, I estimate the model’s parameters using French matched employer-employee data. I prove that the main parameters can be identified and estimated efficiently, despite their large number, by running reduced-form regressions with structural interpretation. This work has important implications for public policy, e.g. regarding the targeting of employment subsidies

• Thursday 30 May 12:30-13:00

  R1 -15

  Artur Przysada (PSE)
  Detection of asset market bubbles with cointegration tests

  Abstract

  During last years researchers still were considering sources of bubbles and their impact for the real economy. But to my best knowledge all work is done for very small data set or for aggregated variables. My contribution is about using individual company data to detect a bubble and being able to understand better its origin. I use standard asset pricing model and perform cointegration tests to find if there are bubbles in the long-run equilibrium

• Thursday 30 May 12:00-12:30

  R1 -15

  Justine Feliu (PSE)
  The Unintended Effect of Corporate Tax Cut

  Abstract

  Corporate tax cuts have been introduced repeatedly in the United States in part to revitalize business dynamism. However, and despite the successive corporate tax cuts, firm entry has steadily declined over the last 40 years in the US. We build a model of firm dynamics with occupational choice and endogeneous entry costs and identify a market size channel through which corporate tax cuts contribute to the decrease in business dynamism by increasing entry costs the larger the average firm size. We aim at extending the theoretical framework to properly formalize the effect of corporate tax cut on firm entry through market structure.

• Thursday 23 May 12:00-12:30

  R1 -16

  Eustache Elina (PSE)
  Labor Income Inequality and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

  Abstract

  We study the impact of an increase in permanent labor income inequality on the transmission of monetary shocks on the real economy. Using a TANK model with non-homothetic preferences, we show that an increase in permanent labor income inequality weakens the direct intertemporal substitution channels, decreasing the strength of monetary policy shocks. In a more realistic HANK model featuring a non-degenerate wealth distribution, this increase in labor income inequality also increases the share of hand-to-mouth households, strengthening the indirect effect of monetary policy and potentially overcoming the decrease of the direct effect

• Thursday 23 May 11:30-12:00

  R1 -16

  Charles Labrousse ( PSE)
  Optimal Monetary Policy and Structural Shocks

  Abstract

  We build a HANK multi-sector model with non nomothetic preferences to quantify optimal monetary policy in an economy with structural shocks.

• Thursday 16 May 12:30-13:00

  R1 -15

  Samiran Dutta
  The Reserve Army of Labor: Segmentation in a Frictional Labor Market with Firm Dynamics

  Abstract

  Firm dynamics and labor markets in developing economies differ fundamentally from their developed counterparts. A high proportion of the labor force is situated in informal employment, while firms also operate outside the administrative domain. I build a model of firm dynamics with on-the job search, accounting for two margins of informality and the presence of an unregistered sector. The aim is to explore trade-offs between wage dispersion, firm growth and unemployment in the context of regulation induced red tape.

• Thursday 16 May 12:00-12:30

  R1 -15

  Loris André (PSE)
  Economic growth and biodiversity: a sectoral model

  Abstract

  This paper puts forward a biodiversity-integrated sectoral growth model, based on the literature in biology and industrial ecology input-output databases. It highlights the crucial impact of non-homothetic preferences on the optimal level of land use by the agricultural sector.

• Thursday 2 May 12:30-13:00

  R1 -15

  Grégoire Sempé (Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne)
  On the importance of horizontal heterogeneity for Climate Policies

  Abstract

  We study the impacts of carbon taxation across rural and urban households. Our dynamic model highlights two key factors contributing to the disparity in tax incidence: durable goods endowments and frictions to sectoral labor mobility.

• Thursday 2 May 12:00-12:30

  R1 -15

  Ornella Torres (PSE)
  Global Imbalances, Interest Rates and the Green Transition, co-écrit avec Agnès Bénassy-Quéré et Katheline Schubert.

  Abstract

  We develop a two-country growth model that helps shedding light on potential outcomes of the implementation of alternative climate policies. We study the impact on investment, savings and cross border flows.

• Thursday 25 April 12:00-13:00

  R1 -15

  Michael Barczay ( EUI)
  On the Optimal Design of Consumption Taxes

  Abstract

  How should differentiated consumption taxes be designed in the presence of capital income taxes and progressive labor income taxes? I study this question using a quantitative model featuring heterogeneous households with non-homothetic preferences, uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, and a government that uses various tax instruments to raise revenue. I estimate the parameters governing households’ demand using data from the US Consumption Expenditure Survey, and show that my model matches the heterogeneous consumption behavior across the income distribution. Allowing the benevolent government to jointly optimize consumption taxes on 11 different consumption categories and labor income taxes, I find that necessities should be heavily subsidized (-52%) and that luxuries are optimally taxed at a positive rate of 7%. This increase in the rate differential is optimally compensated by a significant decrease in the progressivity of the labor income tax. Three main mechanisms explain why such differentiated tax rates are welfare-maximizing: they provide consumption insurance by subsidizing essential goods of low-income households, imply a targeted taxation of the initial wealth of high-wealth households, and induce highly productive households to increase their labor supply.

• Thursday 4 April 12:30-13:00

  R1-15

  Grégoire Sempé (Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne)
  Optimal Climate Policy in the Housing Market
  Paloma Péligry ( ENS Paris Saclay & U. Bologna)

  Abstract

  We study the efficacity, the distributional and macroeconomic consequences of climate policies in the housing market. We build a heterogenous agent model featuring two house vintages (dirty and green), a retrofitting technology and endogenous fuel poverty. We highlight the role of equilibrium effects in shaping the impacts of three policies: carbon taxation, subsidy to retrofit and rental market regulation

• Thursday 4 April 12:00-12:30

  R1 -15

  Moritz Scheidenberger ( PSE, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne)
  Uncertainty Shocks and Option Value Considerations on the Labor Market

  Abstract

  Uncertainty shocks are known to cause a strong slow-down in labor markets and raise unemployment. I attempt to rationalise these findings by introducing option value considerations into a search-and-matching model of the labor market. In combination with recent insights from research on vacancy chains, wait-and-see behaviour in the labor market can cause a slow-down in labor market flows, even if the rise in aggregate uncertainty never materializes in the form of a first-moment shock. Previous work on the labor market consequences of uncertainty typically rules out such option value considerations through the standard free-entry condition. However, understanding the extent to which wait-and-see behaviour drives the labor market slow-down is important. In particular, knowing which types of job are closest to the waiting threshold is essential for drafting a more effective policy response.

• Thursday 28 March 12:00-13:00

  R1-15

  Caterina Seghini (University of Geneva)
  The Green Transition and Public Finances

  Abstract

  As the world faces rising temperatures, extreme weather events and environmental disruption, the imperative to mitigate climate change has never been more pressing. Yet the pursuit of effective mitigation could threaten the sustainability of public debt due to the potentially huge fiscal costs of the associated policies. This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium approach that takes into account the macroeconomic implications of the green transition and its consequences for public finances. It shows that when the government relies too heavily on expenditure-based measures, it threatens the sustainability of public debt, by increasing the probability of sovereign default, lead- ing to higher interest rates on government bonds. This higher public default risk has repercussions on investment financing conditions for the private sector, and increases the cost of the transition to a net-zero economy. On the other hand, carbon pricing policies make the transition more vi- able for public finances, at the expenses of similar economic costs, while remaining effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions

• Thursday 21 March 12:00-13:00

  R1-15

  Simon Toussaint ( Utrecht School of Economics)
  Top Wealth is distributed Weibull, not Pareto

  Abstract

  We study the shape of the global wealth distribution, using the Forbes List of Billionaires. We develop simple statistics based on ratios of log moments to test the default assumption of a Pareto distribution, which is strongly rejected. Hazard rates show that the log-transformed data instead follow a Gompertz distribution, which means that the data in levels follow a truncated-Weibull distribution. We further apply our model to the U.S. city size distribution and the U.S. firm size distribution. These distributions also show a rejection of Pareto in favor of (truncated-)Weibull. We discuss some theoretical and practical implications of our results

• Thursday 14 March 12:30-13:00

  R1-14

  Julien Matheron
  Fifty shades of "TVA Sociale

• Thursday 14 March 12:00-12:30

  R1-14

  Gemma Harris (PSE, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne)
  Capital investment and wealth accumulation dynamics of entrepreneurs

  Abstract

  Entrepreneurs play a significant role in advanced economies. As central banks raise interest rates, it is important to understand the unintended consequences that higher rates have on entrepreneur investment. On one hand, rising rates could hurt entrepreneur investment by restricting access to credit. On the other hand, higher rates increase the return on savings, incentivizing households to accumulate more wealth. As entrepreneurs often rely on personal wealth to finance investment in their firms, an increase in interest rates and the following increase in wealth could allow constrained entrepreneurs to invest in more capital. I develop an analytical model to highlight these competing mechanisms and propose an empirical strategy to explore the relationship between wealth and investment and to determine the overall impact of monetary policy on entrepreneur investment.

• Thursday 7 March 11:00-12:15

  R1-09

  Regular seminar with Jonathan Heathcote ( Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
  Reconciling Macro and Finance: The US Corporate Sector, 1929–2022
  Co-authored with Andrew Atkeson and Fabrizio Perri

• Thursday 29 February 12:00-13:00

  R1-09

  Louis-Marie Harpedane De Belleville (PSE, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne)
  Liquidity cosntraints and skin-in-the-game: Rationing and Misallocation

  Abstract

  In an economy with potentially symmetric (but imperfectly transferable) information and incomplete markets, firms borrow to fund unit-size projects, build capacity over the first period and produce over the second. If firms borrow short, they can blackmail banks to extort low second-period rates. This threat is subgame-perfect for a large range of intermediate productivity projects. In such a case, if the first-period loan is not fully covered, no equilibrium short-term rates exist. Rationing may also occur if the bank tries to make an acceptable counter-offer. This mechanism may provide an alternative to bank liquidity issues in explaining the need for long-term lending

• Thursday 14 December 2023 12:30-13:00

  R1-14

  Hugo Minnella
  Fiscal and Monetary interaction in a HANK model for the Euro Zone

  Abstract

  In this paper, we develop a two-country HANK model for the Euro Zone (EZ) in order to assess the impact of the monetary-fiscal interaction. First, we determine the policy-mix regimes that ensure the uniqueness of the saddle-path of the EZ dynamics. We highlight the fact that these conditions can be different than in the representative agent version of the model. Second, we show that policy regimes are important both for the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to shocks to the fundamentals and for inequalities between and within countries.

• Thursday 14 December 2023 12:00-12:30

  R1-14

  Gustavo Julio Garcia
  Intergenerational Linkages: Implications for Youth Welfare and Equality of Opportunity

  Abstract

  Quantitative assessment of the channels of transmission of inequalities between generations and the capacity of governments to act: should we tax inheritances and give young people a public inheritance?

• Thursday 7 December 2023 12:30-13:00

  R1-14

  Eustache Elina
  Labor Income Inequality and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

  Abstract

  We study the impact of an increase in permanent labor income inequality on the transmission of monetary shocks on the real economy using a standard HANK model enriched with a realistic labor income distribution and non-homothetic preferences. We show that an increase in permanent labor income inequality dampens the sensitivity of macroeconomic aggregates to monetary shocks. This result no longer holds whenever the central bank is able to influence the price of assets through changes in interest rates. This result is driven by the fact that the saving decisions of richer households react less to variations in the real interest rate, and more to variations in the value of wealth.

• Thursday 7 December 2023 12:00-12:30

  R1-14

  Gemma Harris
  Distributional consequences of rising public debt

  Abstract

  Over the past decade, we have observed rising public debt and increasing levels of inequality in countries around the world. To investigate the impacts of higher public debt on inequality, I develop a heterogeneous agent model with workers and entrepreneurs. I find that increasing public debt results in a reallocation of capital to wealthier, higher productivity entrepreneurs, increasing their returns and leading to higher top income and wealth inequality.

• Thursday 23 November 2023 13:30-14:00

  R1 -13

  Selma Malmberg
  Income tax fluctuations and uncertainty in France

  Abstract

  Income tax policies in France have fluctuated considerably over time, influenced by changes in presidential leadership. What are the macroeconomic implications of these fluctuations, but also, more broadly, of the resulting fiscal uncertainty? To answer this question, a simple model of heterogeneous agents is used to assess the effects of fiscal uncertainty on the economy. In addition, a quantitative model calibrated to the French economy is built to explore the historical influence of tax fluctuations

• Thursday 23 November 2023 13:00-14:00

  R1 -13

  Justine Feliu
  Labor market structure under the emergence of contractors

  Abstract

  As domestic outsourcing has been increasing over the last two decades, it remains unclear to what extend it has contributed to a change in labor market concentration. Typically, a firm’s decision to outsource workers is closely related to their occupation. Empirical evidence also points toward non negligible heterogeneity in concentration across occupational labor markets, which further motivates an occupational approach. To quantify the effect of increasing domestic outsourcing on labor market concentration, I therefore develop a search and matching model where firms, contractors and workers interact in a market for a specific occupation. The model gives rise to an equilibrium where the mix between contractor and non-outsourcing firms affects labor market concentration measured as employment and wage-bill shares

• Thursday 16 November 2023 12:30-13:00

  R2-21

  Charles Labrousse
  The aggregate and unequal effects of carbon taxation

  Abstract

  We introduce the rural/urban gap in Aiyagari (1994) to assess the aggregate and distributive effects of carbon taxes. We show that taxing households or firms yield very different aggregate and distributive effects.

• Thursday 16 November 2023 12:00-12:30

  R2-21

  Yann Perdereau
  Quantitative Easing and Central Bank losses in a HANK model Description

  Abstract

  We simulate a Quantitative Easing program at the Zero Lower Bound in a Heterogeneous Agent model, associated with different exit scenarios to cover Central Bank losses. The transmission of QE depends heavily on the fiscal/monetary interaction, as well as incomplete financial markets

• Thursday 19 October 2023 11:00-12:00

  R2-21

  Juan Camilo Medellín
  Firm size, liquidity and optimal heterogeneous hedging

  Abstract

  This paper studies the heterogeneous hedging strategies of non-financial firms in emerging market economies. We unveil that even if large firms are prevalent in the derivatives market, they present smaller shares of covered Foreign Currency (FC) debt in comparison to smaller firms. We offer two explanations for this pattern. i) The market of covered FC debt presents lack of liquidity which limits entry of small firms and the extent of large firms’ hedges. ii) Sterilized foreign exchange interventions distort firms use of covered FC debt. Moderate interventions reduce hedge size and the probability of entry for small firms that feel implicitly protected by the monetary authority, enabling them to bypass fixed entry costs. Large interventions spill out FC liquidity to the derivatives market, increasing the hedges of big firms as large interventions reduce their variable costs. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for these two explanations with rich firm-level panel data for Colombia.

• Thursday 12 October 2023 13:00-14:00

  R1-13

  Eustache Elina
  From Labor Income to Wealth Inequality: General Equilibrium Matters

  Abstract

  The past 40 years have been characterized by a decrease in the rate of return on safe assets, an increase in the equity premium, an increase in the price of financial assets, and an increase in labor income and wealth inequality. Using a heterogeneous-agent model featuring permanent labor income inequality, a two-asset structure, and non-homothetic preferences, we investigate the impact of an increase in permanent labor income inequality on wealth inequality. As rich households save a higher share of their permanent income than poorer ones, a more skewed permanent labor income distribution increases aggregate savings. With imperfect competition, a higher level of savings leads to a higher valuation of firms and a limited increase in capital stock. The induced capital gains increase wealth inequality due to portfolio heterogeneity.

• Thursday 5 October 2023 11:00-12:00

  R1 -15

  Amory Gethin
  Distributional Growth Accounting: Education and the Reduction of Global Poverty, 1980-2022

  Abstract

  This article studies the role played by education in the decline of global poverty. In a companion paper, I estimate that the rise of government redistribution in the form of cash transfers, education, healthcare, and other public services accounts for 30% of worldwide poverty reduction since 1980 (Gethin, 2023). In this paper, I incorporate in this analysis the causal impact of schooling on pretax incomes, combining survey microdata covering 95% of the world’s population with a simple model of education and the wage structure. Private returns to schooling account for 50-60% of global economic growth, 60-70% of income gains among the world’s poorest 20% individuals, and 60-90% of the decline in global gender inequality since 1980. Combining direct redistribution and indirect investment benefits from education brings the total contribution of public policies to global poverty reduction to 50-80% or more.

• Thursday 28 September 2023 12:00-13:00

  R2-21

  Antoine Camous
  Central Bank Strategic Communication and the Dynamics of Reputation

  Abstract

  Why, when and how should a central bank (mis)report private information? This paper studies the incentives and the ability of a central bank to stabilize the economy through strategically distorted announcements. Three messages stand out. First, strategic communication designed to mitigate dispersion costs from sector specific shocks complements standard policy interventions in stabilizing the economy. Second, communication is subject to a commitment tension that undermines control of private beliefs and effective stabilization. Finally, central bank reputation provides valuable incentives to support effective strategic communication.

• Thursday 21 September 2023 12:00-13:30

  R1 -15

  Julien Matheron
  Make-Up Strategies with Finite Planning Horizons but Forward-Looking Assets Prices

  Abstract

  How effective make-up strategies are depends heavily on how forward-looking agents are. Workhorse models find them suspiciously effective. Models that discount the future further find them much less effective, but imply that agents discount the very perception of future policy rates (financial markets do not notice them, or deem them non-credible). We amend one leading solution to the forward-guidance puzzle—Woodford’s finite planning horizons—to the assumption that financial markets have rational expectations on policy rates, and incorporate them into the long-term nominal interest rates faced by all. We find that make-up strategies that compensate for a past deficit of accommodation after an ELB episode have sizably better stabilization properties than inflation targeting.

• Thursday 15 June 2023 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Efficiency and distributional costs of rising public debt (Gemma Harris, PSE) / Labor market structure under the emergence of contractors (Justine Feliu, PSE)

• Thursday 8 June 2023 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Zeno Enders (Heidelberg University)
  TBA

• Thursday 1 June 2023 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Hikaru Saijo (UC Santa Cruz - visiting PSE)
  Volatility Shocks in Networks

  Abstract

  Existing studies on uncertainty shocks focus on economy-wide shocks that affect all sectors symmetrically and simultaneously. However, as the recent COVID-19 pandemic underscores, a rise in uncertainty often appears to be concentrated in several specific sectors. In this paper, I study how these sector-specific volatility shocks propagate and affect aggregate outcomes. First, using novel sector-level data, I estimate sectoral TFP and demand processes allowing for stochastic volatility. I show that sectoral TFP and demand display nontrivial fluctuations in volatility even after controlling for economy-wide variations. During recessions, the number of sectors experiencing an increase in volatility sharply increases. Second, I use the estimated sectoral TFP and demand processes to simulate the impact of sector-specific volatility shocks in a calibrated multi-sector New Keynesian model that features input-output networks. I find that sectoral volatility shocks generate contractions in macro variables such as the aggregate GDP and that the quantitative impact heavily depend on the sectoral origin of the shock. The key transmission mechanism is the precautionary pricing motive that propagates to other sectors.

• Thursday 25 May 2023 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Francesca Parodi (Cattolica University of Milan - visiting PSE)
  Heterogeneity in Household Spending and Well-being on Retirement

• Thursday 11 May 2023 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Charles Labrousse (PSE)
  Carbon taxation, Macroeconomics and Inequalities

• Thursday 20 April 2023 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Pau Roldan (BdE - visiting PSE)
  The Effects of Startup Acquisitions on Innovation and Economic Growth
  (with Christian Fons-Rosen and Tom Schmitz)

  Abstract

  Innovative startups are frequently acquired by large incumbent firms. On the one hand, these acquisitions provide an incentive for startup creation and may transfer ideas to more efficient users. On the other hand, incumbents might acquire startups just to “kill” their ideas, and acquisitions can erode incumbents’ own innovation incentives. Our paper aims to assess the net effect of these forces. To do so, we build an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms and acquisitions, and calibrate its parameters by matching micro-level evidence on startup acquisitions and patenting in the United States. Our calibrated model implies that acquisitions raise the startup rate, but lower incumbents’ own innovation as well as the percentage of implemented startup ideas. The negative forces are slightly stronger. Therefore, a ban on startup acquisitions would increase growth by 0.03 percentage points per year, and raise welfare by 1.8%.

• Thursday 13 April 2023 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Selma Malmberg (Cepremap)
  Making Environmental Policies Acceptable

• Thursday 6 April 2023 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Yann Perdereau (PSE)
  Quantitative Easing and Helicopter Money in a HANK model

• Thursday 15 December 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Antoine Sigwalt (BdF)
  Sovereign spreads and supranational fiscal authority: the example of the Recovery and Resilience Fund

• Thursday 8 December 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R2-01

  Antoine Sigwalt (BdF)
  Domestic Effects of Sovereign Risk

• Thursday 1 December 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Tiziano Toniolo (UC Louvain - visiting PSE)
  Permanent exemption from social security contributions in Belgium: An evaluation with a directed search model

• Thursday 17 November 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Alex Clymo (University of Essex - visiting PSE)
  Equilibrium Job Turnover and the Business Cycle
  https://alexclymo.com/wp-content/uploads/CCC.pdf

• Thursday 10 November 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Leonard Bocquet (PSE)
  The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation

• Thursday 20 October 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-14

  Francesco Pappadà (PSE)
  The dynamics of informality and fiscal policy under sovereign risk

• Thursday 13 October 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R2-01

  Eustache Elina (PSE)
  From Labour Income to Wealth Inequality: General Equilibrium Matters

  Abstract

  The past 40 years have been characterized by a decrease in the interest rate, an increase in the price of equity shares, relatively low growth rates, and an increase in income and wealth inequality. Using a heterogeneous-agent model featuring permanent labor income inequality, capital gains, and non-homothetic preferences, we investigate the impact of an increase in income inequality on wealth inequality. We show that an increase in labour income inequality increases aggregate savings which pushes down the interest rate, pushing the bottom of the distribution to save less but limiting financial income at the top. However, in the short run, this decrease in the interest rate is more than compensated by capital gains, increasing the wealth share at the top of the distribution. This general equilibrium effect accounts for at least 8% of the increase in wealth inequality. Those insights shed new light on the equity premium puzzle, secular stagnation, and the increase in wealth inequality.

• Thursday 6 October 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R2-01

  Come Cheritel (PSE)
  Robust integration of physical uncertainty into climate policies

  Abstract

  Climate policies should account for our limited understanding of the Earth system’s future behaviour. This is overwhelmingly done by designing climate policies first and estimating the system’s probabilistic response afterwards (ex-post), whereas ensuring the policies’ robustness requires incorporating physical uncertainty during their design (ex-ante). Usage of the latter approach, however, has been confined to stylized studies and hypothetical setups. Here, we implement a robust decision-making algorithm in a global climate-economy model that embeds a state-of-the-art estimate of physical uncertainties, obtained through Bayesian fusion of the latest data from Earth system models and observations. Using this new integrated assessment framework, we derive robust global climate policies under a variety of cost-benefit and cost-effective experiments. In robust policies, net-zero CO2 emissions must be reached up to 35 years earlier, and the carbon price must be up to 200% higher, than in non-robust ones derived from Monte Carlo methods. On the long term, robust temperature pathways significantly depart from their all-time maximum, which entails developing and sustaining negative emission technologies for centuries.

• Thursday 29 September 2022 11:30-12:30

  Room R1-15

  Victor Saldarriaga (PSE)
  The Distributional Dynamics of Wages Over the Business Cycle

  Abstract

  Examining cyclical variations in the wage distribution of the U.S. over 1980-2019, I document three novel facts. In recessions, the wage distribution: (i) becomes more positively skewed, (ii) shrinks at the bottom and widens at the top, and (iii) displays a higher fraction of overall dispersion concentrated at the top tail. Contrasting common views, these facts suggest that wage inequality rises during recessions result from changes at the top of the wage distribution. I build a wage bargaining model of random search that incorporates two-sided heterogeneity, aggregate uncertainty, on-the-job search, and targeted recruiting by firms to elaborate on this idea. Over the cycle, firms adjust their recruiting efforts along two margins: the number of vacancies advertised and the skills required to fill these vacancies. In recessions, matches require higher skills from workers to be worth forming, so firms target their vacancies towards high-skill workers. Job offers then fall upon the high-skilled, improving their bargaining position and preventing wages at the top of the distribution from falling sharply, contrary to what occurs among the less-skilled. This mechanism gives rise to higher wage inequality. Quantitatively, the model reproduces key features of the U.S. labor market and renders a varying distribution of wages consistent with the cyclical patterns observed in the data. I further inspect a range of policy interventions and find that, while certain policies, such as unemployment insurance, can fix productive inefficiencies generated by the private behavior of firms, they are less effective in reducing wage inequality in economic downturns.

• Thursday 23 June 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Leonard Bocquet (PSE)
  The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation

• Thursday 2 June 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Hugo Minnella (Cepremap)
  Stability of the Euro area: how to manage public debt and build efficient fiscal rules

• Wednesday 25 May 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Eustache Elina (PSE)
  From income to wealth inequality: general equilibrium matters

• Thursday 19 May 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Frank Smets (ECB and Ghent University)
  The optimal quantity of CBDC in a bank-based economy

  Abstract

  https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=16995

• Thursday 12 May 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Charles Labrousse (PSE)
  When DICE meets a DSGE

• Thursday 5 May 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Alais Martin Baillon (Sciences Po)
  When should we tax firms ? Optimal corporate taxation with firm heterogeneity

• Thursday 14 April 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Yann Perdereau (PSE)
  Unconventional monetary policies in a Two-Agent model

• Thursday 7 April 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Selma Malmberg (Cepremap)
  Household savings and debt in times of crisis

• Thursday 17 March 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-15

  Sonja Dobkowitz (University of Bonn - visiting PSE)
  Redistribution, Demand, and Sustainable Production

• Thursday 10 March 2022 11:00-12:00

  Room R1-10

  Rodrigue Dossou-Cadja (Sapienza University - visiting PSE)
  A treatise on financial crises contagion: the case of African securities exchanges

• Thursday 16 December 2021 11:00-12:00

  Room R2-20

  Juan Camilo Medellín (PSE)
  Firm size, informality and unemployment: The Colombian case

• Thursday 9 December 2021 11:00-12:00

  Room R2-01

  Víctor Saldarriaga (PSE)
  The Distributional Dynamics of Earnings Over the Business Cycle

• Thursday 2 December 2021 11:00-12:00

  Room R2-20

  Antoine Sigwalt (PSE & Banque de France)
  Fiscal Stance in the Euro Area in Real Time

• Thursday 25 November 2021 16:00-17:00

  Room R1-16

  Alessandro De Santis (ECB)
  Production networks and fiscal multiplier

• Thursday 18 November 2021 11:00-12:00

  Room R2-20

  Eustache Elina (PSE)
  From Income to Wealth Inequality: The Asset Price Channel

• Thursday 4 November 2021 11:00-12:00

  Room R2-21

  Simon Tieche (U. of Lausanne)
  Short-selling Constraint and Entry Cost in International Portfolio Choice

• Thursday 14 October 2021 11:00-12:00

  Room R2-21

  Léonard Bocquet (PSE)
  The Network Origin of Mismatch Unemployment

• Thursday 17 June 2021 11:00-12:00

  Alessandro De Sanctis (PSE) (Cancelled)
  Fiscal multipliers and production network externalities

• Thursday 10 June 2021 11:00-12:00

  Léonard Bocquet (PSE)
  Two-sided Market Power and Misallocation in Firm Production Networks

• Thursday 3 June 2021 11:00-12:00

  Antoine Sigwalt (Banque de France, PSE)
  How does sovereign default risk affect inequalities and welfare?

• Thursday 27 May 2021 11:00-12:00

  Ludovic Panon (Bank of Italy)
  Macroeconomic Effects of Market Structure Distorsions

• Thursday 20 May 2021 11:00-12:00

  Thomas Despois (PSE) (RESCHEDULED)

• Thursday 6 May 2021 11:00-12:00

  Clément Malgouyres (IPP, PSE, IZA, CdF) (CANCELLED)
  Technological Change and Domestic Outsourcing

• Thursday 22 April 2021 11:00-12:00

  Cyril Verluise (PSE, CdF)

• Thursday 8 April 2021 11:00-12:00

  Théo Dessertaine (Polytechnique)
  Tâtonnement, Approach to Equilibrium and Excess Volatility in Firm Networks

• Thursday 1 April 2021 10:30-11:30

  Jaime Leyva (PSE)
  Boom-Bust Cycles in International Capital Flows and Fiscal Spending

• Thursday 25 March 2021 11:00-12:00

  Basile Grassi (Bocconi)
  The hitchhiker’s guide to production function estimation

• Thursday 18 February 2021 11:00-12:00

  Simon Bunel (INSEE, PSE)
  What Are the Labor and Product Market Effects of Automation? New Evidence from France

• Thursday 11 February 2021 11:00-12:00

  Manuel Bétin
  Recessions, Panics and Sovereign Crisis

• Thursday 17 December 2020 11:30-12:00

  Maxime Gravoueille (PSE)
  Early warnings, early leavers and the patterns of job displacement

• Thursday 17 December 2020 11:00-11:30

  Thomas Zuber (PSE)
  Opposing firm-level responses to the China shock: Horizontal competition versus vertical relationship

• Thursday 10 December 2020 11:00

  On Zoom : https://zoom.us/j/98642525003?pwd=eTlTZ0NqNGRqUFlTM1lJRzhnbWpOQT09

  Christian Abele (PSE)
  One Size Does Not Fit All: TFP in the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Three European Countries

• Thursday 3 December 2020 11:00-12:00

  On Zoom : https://zoom.us/j/98642525003?pwd=eTlTZ0NqNGRqUFlTM1lJRzhnbWpOQT09

  Paul Brandily (PSE)
  Understanding the Reallocation of Displaced Workers to Firms

• Thursday 26 November 2020 11:00-12:00

  On Zoom : https://zoom.us/j/98642525003?pwd=eTlTZ0NqNGRqUFlTM1lJRzhnbWpOQT09

  Bayram Cakir (PSE)
  Automation, Skill Premium and Factor Shares: Labor Will Be Back

• Thursday 19 November 2020 11:00-12:00

  On Zoom : https://zoom.us/j/98642525003?pwd=eTlTZ0NqNGRqUFlTM1lJRzhnbWpOQT09

  Euiyoung Jung (PSE)
  On the design of labor market programs as stabilization policies

• Thursday 5 November 2020 11:00-12:00

  On Zoom: https://zoom.us/j/98642525003?pwd=eTlTZ0NqNGRqUFlTM1lJRzhnbWpOQT09

  Eustache Elina (PSE)
  Inheritance Taxation With Housing

• Thursday 29 October 2020 11:00-12:00

  On Zoom

  Juan Camilo Medellín (PSE)
  Original Sin & Redemption: Foreign Currency Debt and Hedging Strategies in Colombian Non-Financial Firms

• Thursday 22 October 2020 11:30-12:00

  On Zoom

  Eustache Elina (PSE)
  Eustache Elina: "Optimal Inheritance Taxation With Housing"

• Thursday 22 October 2020 11:00-11:30

  On Zoom

  Bayram Cakir (PSE)
  "Automation, Skill Premium and Factor Shares: Labor Will Be Back"

• Thursday 15 October 2020 11:00-12:00

  On Zoom

  Medhi Senouci (CentraleSupelec)
  A new model of technical change and an application to the Solow model

• Thursday 15 October 2020 11:00-12:00

  Medhi Senouci (CentraleSupelec)
  A new model of technical change and an application to the Solow model

• Thursday 26 March 2020 14:00-15:00

  R1-16, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Andrea Mencarelli (PSE)
  Currency crises in emerging market economies: the role of capital flows and restrictions

• Thursday 19 March 2020 14:00-15:00

  R1-16, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Louis-Marie Harpedanne (PSE)
  Real effects of Central Bank collateral Policy: a free and risk-free lunch

• Thursday 5 December 2019 14:00-15:00

  R2-21, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Francesco Manaresi (Banca d’Italia)
  Born in Hard Times: Startups and Intangible Capital During the Financial Crisis

• Thursday 28 November 2019 14:00-15:00

  R2-20, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Gudrun Johnsen (PSE-ENS)
  The Logic of Business Groups: A Moral Hazard Perspective

• Thursday 21 November 2019 14:00-15:00

  R1-11, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Laure Simon (EUI)
  Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle

  Abstract

  Using household level data for the U.S. from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, I document that age is a key driver of consumption adjustment to government spending shocks. Responses of young households are significantly larger, regardless of their income level or debt position. Further evidence using micro data from the Current Population Survey reveals greater responsiveness among young workers to government spending shocks in terms of productivity, wages and hours worked. I propose a new transmission channel of fiscal policy that can account for these heterogeneous effects across age groups, based on differences in skill accumulation over the life cycle. To illustrate the mechanism, I develop a parsimonious New Keynesian life-cycle model where young agents accumulate skills on-the-job through a learning-by-doing process. As individuals work more following a fiscal stimulus, young people raise their productivity faster than their prime-age counterparts. The ensuing increase in the relative labor demand for young workers boosts their wages, thus stimulating their consumption.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 1.7 Mb)

• Thursday 14 November 2019 14:00-15:00

  R1-10, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Tatsuyoshi OKIMOTO (Fondation France-Japon)
  The Effects of Asset Purchases and Normalization of US Monetary Policy

  Abstract

  This paper examines changes in the effects of unconventional monetary policies in the US. To this end, we estimate a Markov-switching VAR model with absorbing regimes to capture possible structural changes. Our results detect regime changes around the beginning of 2011 and the middle of 2013. Before 2011, the US large- scale asset purchases (LSAPs) had relatively large impacts on the real economy and prices, but after the middle of 2013, their effects were weaker and less-persistent. In addition, after the middle of 2013, which includes the monetary policy normalization period, the asset purchase (or balance sheet) shocks had slightly weaker effects than during the early stage of the LSAPs but stronger effects than during the late stage of the LSAPs, while interest rate shocks had insignificant effects on the real economy and prices. Finally, our results suggest that the positive responses of durables and capital goods expenditures to interest rate shocks weakened the negative impacts of interest rate hikes after the middle of 2013 including the period of monetary policy normalization.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 462.2 kb)

• Thursday 7 June 2018 14:00-15:00

  R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Ezgi OZSOGUT (PSE)
  Inequality, Leverage and Sudden Stops

  Abstract

  In standard models of sudden stops, only sources of uncertainty are the aggregate fluctuations. When there is a contraction in aggregate output, aggregate demand falls in response. Due to credit market imperfections, such as collateral constraints which link private debt to market prices, in response to a fall in aggregate demand, constraints become even tighter resulting in further contraction of consumption. Introduction of income inequality and heterogeneous agents in this framework imply that market-clearing prices become a function of the entire distribution of agents together with aggregate income and introduces an additional channel for the externality to operate. By bringing two strands of financial crises literature together, namely the one on sudden stops/credit crunch and the one which investigates the effects of rising income inequality on macroeconomic conditions, I investigate the relationship between income inequality, leverage and financial crisis in small open economies and show how rising income inequality contributes to financial fragility.

• Thursday 17 May 2018 14:00-15:00

  Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Justine PEDRONO (Banque de France)
  How does currency diversification explain banks’ leverage procyclicality?

  Abstract

  The amplitude and dynamics of the leverage procyclicality are heterogeneous across banks and across countries. This paper explores whether currency diversification of bank’s balance sheet is a factor of this observed heterogeneity. The theoretical model predicts that the impact of currency diversification on bank’s leverage procyclicality depends on the relative performance of economies, the global business cycle and the exchange rate regime. Using novel micro data on banks located in France, I show that the pre-crisis currency diversification of banks increases banks’ leverage procyclicality during the 2008-2009 crisis. Focusing on the foreign exchange rate impact, namely the valuation effect of currency diversification, my results suggest that it had a negative effect on leverage procyclicality during this period. These findings confirm the theoretical prediction and draw attention to the specific role of balance sheet currency diversification in financial stability risk.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 429.2 kb)

• Thursday 15 March 2018 14:00-15:00

  Salle R1-15, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Pauline WIBAUX (PSE)
  Trade and Currency weapons

  Abstract

  The debate on currency wars has re-emerged in the wake of the exceptionally accommodative monetary policies carried out after the 2008 global financial crisis. Using product level data for 110 countries over the 1989-2013 period, we estimate trade elasticities to exchange rates and tariffs within the same empirical specification, using a gravity approach. We find that the impact of a 10 percent depreciation of the exporter country’s currency is "equivalent" to a cut in the power of the tariff in the destination country in the order of 2.4 to 3.4%. We then study the policy implications of these results based on a stylized macroeconomic model. Faced with a negative demand shock, the policy-maker of a small open economy may cut the home interest rate (and let depreciate its currency), increase the import tariffs, or combine an interest-rate cut with a reduced import tariffs. We find that monetary policy is more effective than trade policy in stabilizing output. If the internal transmission channel of monetary policy is muted (at the zero-lower bound), the incentive to carry out a non-cooperative policy is increased, but more through a "trade war" than through a "currency war". The two-country extension of our model confirms these results, but the incentive to increase import tariffs is much more limited in this case.

• Thursday 8 March 2018 14:00-15:00

  Salle R1-15, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Jaime LEYVA (PSE)
  International Banking Flows, The Global Financial Cycle and Local Developments

  Abstract

  The Global Financial Cycle has received a big attention in the last years. Many works have found a significant and negative mean effect of some Global Financial Cycle proxies such as the VIX in risky asset prices, capital flows and leverage across different countries. This paper tries to assess the importance of the Global Financial Cycle in explaining international banking flows conditioning on the heterogeneous response of local variables to global shocks. We use the correlated part of local stock market volatility with the US stock market volatility to quantify the heterogeneous local response to global high uncertainty periods and then we test the explanatory power of the country-specific response to global shocks in a panel of international banking flows to Small Open Economies. Our results seem to asses that there is an active coordination behaviour of the Global Banking system to more exposed countries under high uncertainty periods, and taking into account the heterogeneous responses in stock markets outperforms the explanatory power of a common global proxy of volatility. Finally, we develop a Small Open Economy DSGE model in which we analyze the impact of international interest rate shocks to provide further intuition of how different exposures to global shocks are related with difficult financial conditions in the local economy.

• Thursday 1 February 2018 14:00-15:00

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Arsham REISINEZHAD (PSE)
  Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Resource Countries: Theory and Evidence

  Abstract

  While much ink has been spilled over the study of income inequality and economic growth, little attention has been paid to the interaction between these variables of interest in resource-dependent economies. The present paper develops a two-sector small open economy model including two groups of households (the rich and the poor). The mechanism is derived by two forces: 1) a composition of productivity growth with Learning by Doing (LBD) and capital accumulation with absorptive capacity constraints on the supply-side 2) a change in the relative demand of the non-traded to the traded goods on the demand-side. Applying a panel data approach for a sample database of 40 countries over the period 1975-2015, I evaluate the predictions of my theory. The main findings are as follows: in response to a windfall income, first, the natural resource curse (i.e. the Dutch disease and Deindustrialization) appears. Second, income inequality rises if the non-traded sector is relatively capital-intensive while income inequality falls if the non-traded sector is relatively labor-intensive. Third, rising (falling) income inequality tends to deepen (moderate) the natural resource curse. Fourth, natural resource curse and income inequality change are relatively more intensive in a democratic country than in a non-democratic country.

• Thursday 18 January 2018 14:00-15:00

  Salle R2-20, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Andreas Irmen (University of Luxembourg)
  Technological Progress, the Supply of Hours Worked, and the Consumption Leisure Complementarity.

  Abstract

  At least since 1870 hours worked per worker declined and real wages increased in many of today’s industrialized countries. The dual nature of technological progress in conjunction with a consumption-leisure complementarity explains these stylized facts. Technological progress drives real wages up and expands the amount of available consumption goods. Enjoying consumption goods increases the value of leisure. Therefore, individuals demand more leisure and supply less labor. This mechanism appears in an OLG-model with two-period lived individuals equipped with per-period utility functions of the generalized log-log type proposed by Boppart-Krusell (2016). The optimal plan is piecewise defined and hinges on the wage level. Technological progress moves a poor economy out of a regime with low wages and an inelastic supply of hours worked into a regime where wages increase further and hours worked continuously decline.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 540.9 kb)

• Thursday 7 December 2017 14:00-15:00

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup (National University of Singapore)
  Cyclical Government Spending : Theory and Empirics

  Abstract

  I provide a thorough analysis of the presence of a systematic response of government spending to the cycle in a simple New Keynesian model. I show that it has important implications for the transmission of vari- ous shocks. I then exploit the gap between OLS and 2SLS government spending multipliers that is typically reported in the literature on local multiplier effects to estimate how cyclical the systematic part of govern- ment spending is. I use a GMM method for estimation and show that it is quick, simple and fares better than usual alternatives. I estimate that when unemployment increases by 1%, the systematic component of gov- ernment spending increases by 0.23%. Additional results suggests that government spending multipliers reported in the literature slightly over- estimate the true impact multiplier and are larger than medium-run cu- mulative ones.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 361.9 kb)

• Thursday 23 November 2017 14:00-15:00

  Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Antoine LEPETIT (Banque de France)
  The optimal inflation rate with discount factor heterogeneity

  Abstract

  This paper considers a framework in which the relevant frictions faced by the monetary authority are price stickiness and monopolistic competition, and shows that deviations from long-run price stability are optimal in the presence of discount factor heterogeneity. I derive analytical solutions for the optimal inflation rate in two different cases. First, in a standard New Keynesian model in which the heterogeneity in discount factors is imposed exogenously. Second, in a model with a perpetual youth structure in which it arises endogenously. I find that the optimal inflation rate is positive when the social discount factor is greater than the discount factor used by firms when evaluating profit flows, zero when the two are equal, and negative when the planner is more impatient than firms. A baseline calibration of the perpetual youth model suggests values of the optimal inflation rate comprised between 0.2% and 1%.

  1 document to download

  • optimalinflation.pdf (PDF, 511.1 kb)

• Thursday 9 November 2017 14:00-15:00

  Salle R2-20, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Julien PINTER (Paris 1)
  Breaking the Swiss Franc peg: afraid of financial losses?

  Abstract

  Constraints on a central bank’s ability to resist appreciation pressures by buying large amount of foreign reserves are not clearly known in nowadays’ central banking framework. In this paper we consider a central bank implementing a one-sided peg to prevent its currency from appreciating, such as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) between 2011-2015. We focus on the central bank ability to break its peg at any stage. We show that under redundant appreciation pressures there is a time at which this ability disappears for an independent central bank with a price stability objective such as the SNB, due to the insolvency risk. The central bank thus faces a trade-off between breaking its peg early or living indefinitely with it. We show that the same reasoning applies when the central bank cares about showing a positive level of equity. Applying our analysis to the Swiss National Bank peg, we show that in some scenarios the losses the SNB could have faced were such that the SNB indeed avoided to tie its hands by breaking its peg-policy in 2015. Assuming this was indeed a decision factor, ECB QE policy then appears as a potential key driver of this decision.

• Thursday 26 October 2017 14:00-15:00

  Salle R2-20, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Ezgi OZSOGUT (PSE)
  Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances

  Abstract

  Current account regressions show that when top income shares are added to the comprehensive set of conventional explanatory variables used by the IMF, they predict significantly larger current account deficits in a cross-section of advanced economies, but with important outliers among countries that have pursued export-led rather than finance-led growth strategies. To study this mechanism, we develop a DSGE model where the income share of top earners increases at the expense of bottom earners. Due to preferences for wealth, top earners have a much higher marginal propensity to save than bottom earners, as they do in the data. We find that, when the redistributive shock has a large positive effect on asset values, and if domestic financial markets are large, the result will be a sizeable current account deficit. On the other hand, when the redistributive shock mostly affects relative labor incomes, and if domestic financial markets are small, the result will be a current account surplus.

• Thursday 19 October 2017 14:00-15:00

  Salle R2-20, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris

  Jonas HEIPERTZ (PSE)
  Balance-Sheet Diversification in General Equilibrium: Identification and Network Effects

  Abstract

  The paper uses disaggregated data on asset holdings and liabilities to estimate a general equilibrium model where each firm determines the diversification and size of the asset and liability sides of its balance-sheet. The model endogenously generates two types of financial networks: (i) a network of institutions when two institutions share common asset or liability holdings or when an institution holds an asset that is the liability of another. In both cases demand/supply decisions by one institution affect the value of other institutions’ holdings/liabilities, (ii) a network of financial instruments implied by the distribution of assets and liabilities within and across institutions. A change in the price of one asset induces change in demand/supply for all other assets, thus generating price comovement. The general equilibrium analysis predicts the propagation of real, financial and regulatory shocks as well as the change in the network caused by the shock.

• Thursday 5 October 2017 14:00-15:00

  Riccardo Zago (Science-Po)
  Job Polarization, Skill Mismatch and the Great Recession
  Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris, salle R2-20

  Abstract

  Much has been written on the disappearance of routine employment both in the long-run and over the cycle. Yet, little is known about the effects of job polarization on the reallocation of skills and skill demand across occupations. This paper fills the gap. Herein, I model a labor market with three types of jobs and skill-heterogeneous agents and I estimate its structural parameters to match solely the long-run and cyclical decline of routine employment for periods around the Great Recession in the U.S. Nevertheless, the model explains surprisingly well the skill-mismatch dynamics in the data and the different reallocation patterns across workers. In particular, it predicts that (i) 1pp decline in routine employment -as explained by routine biased technical change and transitory shocks- leads to a rise in skill-mismatch by 0.35pp (0.39pp in the data); (ii) mismatches widen over the cycle and are explained by movements from the top to the bottom of the job ladder; (iii) any wage loss from mismatch is decreasing in skills. Moreover, the model explains 38% of the shift-out of the Beveridge curve and reveals the factors driving the decline in matching efficiency in the post-recession era, a phenomenon still not well explained by the literature. The aggregate predictions of the model are validated across states, with skill-mismatch magnified for local markets that experienced a sharper decline in routine employment during the Great Recession.

• Thursday 16 March 2017 14:00-15:00

  Thore Kockerols (Paris-1 / Labex Refi)
  Financialisation in the aluminium market: Evidence from a DSGE model
  Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris, salle R2-20

  Abstract

  This paper investigates the aluminium market and models its unique characteristics. Warehouse queues played a role in banks involvement in the financialisation trade: selling commodity price exposure. The influence of this phenomenon is subject to ongoing research and supposedly had an influence on prices from 2003 on. Here I use a DSGE model to represent the demand side and identify storage demand shocks as the corresponding shock to the effect of financialisation. The results suggest a strong impact on aluminium prices due to storage demand shocks after 2003. Though, the influence of storage demand shocks is likely to be overestimated given the closed economy approach. I find that storage demand shocks have a negative effect on output and lead to an increase in inflation. Thereby high commodity prices do not necessarily occur during times of strong economic growth. Furthermore, the inclusion of storage leads to a secondary channel for monetary policy.

  1 document to download

  • financialisation-aluminium (PDF, 726.1 kb)

• Thursday 2 February 2017 15:00-16:00

  Anna Petronevich (CREST - PSE - Paris-1 - Università Ca’Foscari Venezia- NRU HSE)
  Dynamical Interaction Between Financial and Business Cycles
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room S-17

  Abstract

  We adopt the Dynamical Influence model from computer science and transform it to study the interaction between business and financial cycles. For this purpose, we merge it with Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model (MS-DFM) which is frequently used in economic cycle analysis. The model suggested in this paper, the Dynamical Influence Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model (DI-MS-DFM), allows to reveal the pattern of interaction between business and financial cycles in addition to their individual characteristics. More specifically, with the help of this model we are able to identify and describe quantitatively the existing regimes of interaction in a given economy, and we allow them to switch over time. We are also able to determine the direction of causality between the two cycles for each of the regimes. The model estimated on the US data demonstrates reasonable results, identifying the periods of higher interaction between the cycles in the beginning of 1980s and during the Great Recession, while in-between the cycles evolve almost independently. The output of the model can be useful for policymakers since it provides a timely estimate of the current interaction regime, which allows to adjust the timing and the composition of the policy mix.

• Thursday 26 January 2017 15:00-16:00

  Yvan Bécard (Paris-1 / PSE)
  Collateral Shocks
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room S-17

  Abstract

  We investigate the impact of changes in collateral requirements by banks. Using US macroeconomic and financial data we estimate a DSGE model able to replicate movements in the balance sheets of banks and nonfinancial firms. We find that fluctuations in collateral requirements, or collateral shocks, explain a large share of economic fluctuations and allow us to reproduce the narrative of the 2008-2009 recession. We present additional pieces of evidence that support the plausibility of the collateral shock.

• Thursday 19 January 2017 15:00-16:00

  Anastasia Zhutova (Université d’Aix-Marseille)
  The Slope of the IS Curve: New Evidence of the Inverted Case
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room S-17

  Abstract

  The degree of asset market participation has important implications for the relationship between the real interest rate and the aggregate demand. Our objective is to provide a quantitative estimate of the proportion of asset holders in the US and Euro Area starting from 1960s and 2000s respectively. In particular, we unveil the sub-periods where this number has fallen so dramatically that the IS curve becomes more vertical, and eventually inverted. We endogenize the identification of these periods through an estimation of a Markov-switching model displaying two (low and high) participation regimes. To account for the zero low bound on the policy rates, our model also features a shift in time preference shock which allows to distinguish between two steady states of the real interest rate, one of which being negative. We show that in the US the number of optimizing agents varied only during the Great Inflation and on the edge of the recent crisis. The proportion of non-participants has increased sufficiently to invert the IS curve. In the EA the asset market participation decreases significantly during a substantial period of the Great Recession, but just enough to provoke an increase in the slope of the IS curve without reverting it. Our result have important implications for the recent discussion on the effects of the unconventional monetary policy.

• Thursday 12 January 2017 15:00-16:00

  Mathilde Viennot (PSE - EHESS)
  Schäuble versus Tsipras: a New-Keynesian DSGE Model with Default Risk for the Eurozone Debt Crisis
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room S-17

  Abstract

  We calibrate a New-Keynesian DSGE and use the comparison of two value functions to compute an implicit default probability. We compare the robustness of a small Eurozone in a fi-xed exchange rate model to a flexible rate economy. We demonstrate that default thresholds are higher in the Eurozone case but the thresholds are more likely to be reached. We analyze the role of habit consumption in that framework and show that it plays an important role in determining default probabilities and debt levels. Furthermore, we show that a fast speed of consolidation in -fiscal rules can help preventing defaults, but the effect is quantitatively weak

• Thursday 15 December 2016 15:00-16:00

  Charlotte Sandoz (Paris-1 / PSE / BdF)
  Traded Intermediate Inputs, Aggregate Productivity Growth and Allocative Efficiency
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  Firms evolve in a globalized market and traded inputs are key factors of production today. Literature has shown that TFP dispersion reveals resource misallocation induced by market frictions, but few studies have introduced traded inputs in these frameworks. I provide new evidence that traded inputs generate misallocation through firm-specific variable trade costs. I estimate a structural model using a comprehensive dataset of French firms in manufacturing industries to measure firm-level distortions. I then implement a TFP decomposition to quantify the impact of trade openness on the evolution of allocative efficiency in France between 1999 and 2011.

• Thursday 1 December 2016 15:00-16:00

  Sophie Piton (Paris-1 / PSE / CEPII)
  Economic Integration and the Non-tradable Sector: The European Experience

  Abstract

  Can economic integration foster nonbalanced growth in catching-up economies? This paper suggests that not only market integration but also financial or monetary integration can result in different growth rates of the different sectors in a catching-up economy. And if the non-tradable sectors expands relative to the tradable sector, economic integration can lead to a transitory accumulation of current account deficits. Adapting a model of structural change for a small open economy with a tradable and non-tradable sector, this paper shows that market and financial integration lead to a relative price increase which can result in a relative expansion of the non-tradable sector. Financial integration also fosters a demand boom, and results —as long as economies are catching-up— in large current account deficits. Using a new database, the different aspects of economic integration and sector dynamics are documented for 16 countries of the Euro area.

• Thursday 27 October 2016 15:00-16:00

  Brendan Vannier (PSE - ENS - Banque de France)
  An international comparison of business cycles: Stagnation at the root of diversity?
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  Recent literature comparing business cycles between advanced economies (AE) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE) advocates more frequent switches between expansions and recessions for the latter group. I consider 77 countries at a quarterly frequency and find that, nevertheless, on average, both groups face similar probabilities to enter and exit a recession. To identify this `paradox’, I use both a conventional dating rule and Markov-Switching Models (MSM). Yet, EMDE differ from AE with respect to the stiffer losses they endure during recessions and the larger heterogeneity of behaviors this group represent. To reflect on this paradox, I move beyond the traditional duality of business cycles to question the role of stagnation episodes. I argue that stagnations are a necessary addition to understand countries’ dynamics. Using a wide set of development indicators, I find that countries that tend to move directly from expansions to recessions possess AE’s characteristics such as institutions of better quality. On the other hand, countries that transition more often from stagnation to recession and remain in recession reflect EMDE’s aspects.

• Thursday 20 October 2016 15:00-16:00

  Basile Grassi (Nuffield College, University of Oxford)
  I-O in I-O: Competition and Volatility in Production Networks
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  This paper evaluates the direct and indirect impact (through input-output linkages) of firm-level shocks on competition, productivity and volatility at the sector and aggregate level. To do so, I build a dynamic multi-sector heterogeneous firm general equilibrium model with a production network. Within each sector, a finite number of heterogeneous firms are subject to imperfect competition and set variable markups. Sector level competition is endogenously determined by the Herfindahl index. Moreover these firms are subject to persistent idiosyncratic shocks which generate sector-level volatility due to the fat-tailed nature of the sector’s firm size distribution. Each sector’s volatility is also determined by its concentration. These sector-level fluctuations are aggregated taking into account the input-output network. In this economy, change in competition act as supply shocks to downstream sectors and demand shocks to upstream sectors. I show that the market power of a sector in its supply chain increases (resp. decreases) the elasticity of aggregate profit income share (resp. aggregate consumption) with respect to sector’s competition. Firms in highly central (hub-like) and highly concentrated sectors account for a more important share of aggregate volatility.

• Thursday 13 October 2016 15:00-16:00

  Sébastien Bock (Paris-1 / PSE)
  Job Polarization and Unskilled Employment Losses in France
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  This paper investigates the effect of labor taxation policies and job polarization on unskilled employment in France between 1982 and 2008. I argue that the interaction of high labor taxation with job polarization induces unskilled employment losses while differentiated payroll tax reduction policies induce unskilled employment gains. The empirical analysis establishes four main observations. France has experienced job polarization (i) and a decline in unskilled employment (ii) between 1982 and 2008. The rise in manual employment wasn’t sufficient to counterbalance the decline in routine employment (iii). France has a high and increasing average labor tax rate but has implemented massive payroll tax reduction policies on low-paid workers since 1993 (iv). I build a parsimonious general equilibrium model with occupational choice in order to rationalize those patterns. Two main results arise by using the calibrated model for the French economy. First, the unskilled employment rate should have been 4.3pp higher without capital diffusion and 1.5pp higher with the combined absence of capital diffusion and differentiated payroll tax policies in 2008. This represents respectively a gain of 1,300,000 and 450,000 jobs between 1982 and 2008. Second, payroll tax reduction policies on low-paid workers prevented a decline by 3.2pp of the unskilled employment rate which represents a gain of 960,000 jobs for the same period.

  1 document to download

  • Slides (PDF, 841.9 kb)

• Thursday 6 October 2016 15:00-16:00

  Takeki Sunakawa (University of Tokyo)
  Sustainable International Monetary Policy Cooperation
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 2.1.

  Abstract

  We provide new insight on international monetary policy cooperation using a two-country model based on Benigno and Benigno (2006). Assuming symmetry, save for the volatility of (markup) shocks, we show that an incentive feasibility problem exists between the policymakers across national borders: The country faced with a relatively more volatile markup shock has an incentive to deviate from an assumed Cooperation regime to one with Noncooperation. More generally, a similar result obtains if countries differ in size. This motivates our study of a history-dependent Sustainable Cooperation regime which is endogenously sustained by a cross-country, state-contingent contract between policymakers. Under Sustainable Cooperation, the responses of inflation and the output gap in both countries are different from those induced by the Cooperation and Noncooperation regimes reflecting the endogenous welfare redistribution between countries under the state-contingent contract. Such history-contingent welfare redistributions are supported by resource transfers affected through incentive-compatible variations in the terms of trade (or net exports). Such an endogenous cooperative solution may also provide a theoretical rationale for perceived occasional cooperation between national central banks in reality.

  2 documents to download

  • fujiwara_kam_sunakawa (PDF, 456.1 kb)

  • Slides (PDF, 390.4 kb)

• Thursday 16 June 2016 16:00-19:00

  (spec. sess) 16 June - Forward Guidance: Recent Developments

  Abstract

  Thursday June, 16, 2016 from 4 pm to 7 pm
  Venue: 6th floor, Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106 - 112 boulevard de L’Hôpital, 75013, Paris
  Programme:
  4 pm - 4.30 pm: "Forward Guidance with Heterogeneous Beliefs", Philippe Andrade, Gaetano Gaballo (BdF), Eric Mengus (HEC) and Benoit Mojon (BdF)
  4.30 pm - 5 pm: "Optimal Forward Guidance", Florin Bilbiie (PSE)
  5 pm - 5.30 pm: "Forward Guidance in Models with Incomplete Markets", Adrien Auclert (Princeton and Stanford, visiting PSE)
  5.30 pm -7 pm KEYNOTE LECTURE: "A Behavioral New Keynesian Model", Xavier Gabaix (NYU)

• Thursday 17 March 2016 15:00-16:00

  Zvi Eckstein (IDC Herzlyia)
  "Sources of Change in the Life-Cycle Decisions of American Men and Women: 1962-2014" joint with M. Keane and O. Lifshitz
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Conference room, 6th floor.

• Thursday 10 March 2016 13:00-14:00

  Ilya Eryzhenskiy, (Paris—1 and Bielefeld University)
  "Government debt and endogenous credit constraints in a life cycle economy"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room S18

  Abstract

  Consumption borrowing is mostly not collateralized for young households. To prevent default on such loans, banks set borrowing limits, which may bind. I study the effect of government debt on a pure exchange, overlapping generations economy with uncollateralized private borrowing. A positive stock of government debt can be essential for the young households to face nonzero borrowing limits in equilibrium. The result is due to the endogenous nature of these limits. When agents expect high interest rates in the future, which is the case with positive government debt, they expect to carry some assets into retirement. This makes them avoid records on bankruptcy, so banks can let them borrow more in youth. I study the possible long-run equilibrium and transitory dynamics as a function of initial stock of government debt. A small but positive level of government debt is essential for a transition from a credit crunch to an equilibrium that is a Pareto improvement or even first-best.

• Thursday 25 February 2016 13:00-14:00

  Rabah Arezki (IMF)
  "NEWS SHOCKS IN OPEN ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM GIANT OIL DISCOVERIES"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room S18

  Abstract

  This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output–the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

• Thursday 17 December 2015 15:00-16:00

  Furlanetto Francesco, Norges Bank
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

• Thursday 10 December 2015 15:00-16:00

  Pierre Aldama, Paris 1 - PSE
  Why Fiscal Regimes Matter for Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: An Application on France’s Fiscal Policy
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  This paper considers a regime-switching fiscal policy rule, allowing for a periodic negative or null feedback effect of public debt on primary surplus. We show it implies periodic explosive dynamics for public debt. As a result, both standard stationarity analysis and OLS estimates of fiscal policy rules may be misleading since it neglects regime-switching. Using a new Regime-Switching Model-Based Sustainability test (Aldama, 2015), we illustrate our findings by an empirical application on France’s fiscal policy. In opposition with former empirical results, we find weak but still significant evidence in favor of the sustainability of France’s public debt.

• Thursday 26 November 2015 15:00-16:00

  Sangeeta Pratap (Hunter College and Graduate Center City University of NY)
  "Credit, Misallocation and Productivity Growth (A Disaggregated Analysis)", co-written with Felipe Meza and Carlos Urrutia
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  We study the relation between credit conditions, misallocation of resources, and productivity growth in a multi-sector model with financial frictions. In our framework, working capital constraints and borrowing limits create wedges between the marginal product of inputs and their relative prices, which we can map into distortions to the capital to labor ratio and to the use of intermediate goods. The distribution of these distortions across sectors and their changes over time affect aggregate TFP. We construct a novel dataset for the Mexican manufacturing activity that merges real and financial data at the 4-digit sectoral level and use our model to account for aggregate (manufacturing) TFP growth. The calibrated model explains a large fraction of observed TFP growth between 2003-2012, with sector-specific credit conditions playing a significant role. In particular, the contribution of changes in interest rates varies from 23 percent to 88 percent of the model predicted TFP growth in different subperiods. Sectoral heterogeneity in credit conditions, measured directly from the data, matters crucially for our results.

  1 document to download

  • Paper_July13.pdf (HTML, 3.2 kb)

• Thursday 19 November 2015 15:00-16:00

  Sébastien Bock (Paris 1 - PSE)
  Job polarization and wage regulations: The shaping of French labor market outcomes
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  This paper focuses on two major differences observed in the process of labor market polarization between France and the United-States. During the last two decades, both countries have experienced a simultaneous rise in employment shares at the top and the bottom of the wage distribution while the middle class has been shrinking. This process has been known as the polarization of jobs. This phenomenon induced a polarization of wages in the United-States, while France experienced wage compression. In the meantime, the employment gap between both countries has been persistent even though it slightly declined in the late 1990s. By using the French Labor Force survey from 1990 to 2011 and a simple theoretical framework, I show that wage regulations such as the minimum wage and social security contributions might have played a significant role in explaining these differences.

• Thursday 12 November 2015 15:00-16:00

  Hamze Arabzadeh (Paris 1 - PSE)
  The political economy of twin deficits and wage setting centralization
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  Global current account imbalances is, to large extent, shaped by government decisions and sovereign to sovereign transactions. This paper aims to provide a theoretical framework to investigate the impact of wage centralization on the governments’ political incentives to widen or correct external balance through managing the budget balance. An increase in budget deficit, when financed by external resources (twin deficits), leads to some symptoms of Dutch disease: real appreciation of the currency, loss in competitiveness of Tradable sector (T-sector) and, if labor market is frictional, an increase (a decline) in the real wage in N-sector (T-sector). The opposite happens when the government improves the two balances. Therefore, the workers in N-sector relatively support (oppose) more the policies which lead to widening (reforming) the two deficits. Centralization of wage bargaining moderates these evaluations by compressing the wage gap between the sectors: The more centralized is the wage determination, the less N-sector workers support (oppose) widening (reforming) the two deficits. Relying on the majority rule, it will be argued that policy makers follow the preferences of N-sector workers (who constitute the majority in developed countries). Therefore, the governments in the countries with higher degree of wage centralization will have less political incentives to widen twin deficits and more political support for improving the two balances. This prediction is confirmed by facts reported in the paper.

• Thursday 5 November 2015 15:00-16:00

  Vladimir Asriyan (CREI, Barcelona GSE)
  Balance Sheet Recessions with Informational and Trading Frictions
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  Balance sheet recessions result from concentration of macroeconomic risks on the balance sheets of leveraged agents. In this paper, I argue that information dispersion about the future states of the economy combined with trading frictions in financial markets can explain why such concentration of risk may be privately but not socially optimal. I show that borrowers face a trade off between the insurance benefits of financing with macro contingent contracts and the illiquidity premia they need to pay creditors for holding such contracts. In aggregate, as borrowers sacrifice contingency in order to provide liquidity, the severity of macroeconomic fluctuations becomes endogenously linked to the magnitudes of information dispersion and trading frictions. In this setting, I study the policy implications of the theory and I find that imposing (or subsidizing) contingencies in private contracts is welfare improving.
  Link to the paper:
  https://www.dropbox.com/s/j97ux7bsimc70rv/Balance%20Sheet%20Recessions%20-%20V.%20Asriyan.pdf?dl=0

• Thursday 15 October 2015 15:00-16:00

  Todd Keister, Rutgers University
  "Liquidity regulation and the implementation of monetary policy", co-written with Morten L. Bech
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  In addition to revamping existing rules for bank capital, Basel III introduces a new global framework for liquidity regulation. One part of this framework is the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), which requires banks to hold ssufficient high-quality liquid assets to survive a 30-day period of market stress. As monetary policy typically involves targeting the interest rate on loans of one of these assets central bank reserves it is important to understand how this regulation may impact the e-fficacy of central banks’ current operational frameworks. We introduce term funding and an LCR requirement into an otherwise standard model of monetary policy implementation. We show that when banks face the possibility of an LCR shortfall, it becomes more challenging for a central bank to control the overnight interest rate and the short end of the yield curve becomes steeper. Our results suggest that central banks may want to adjust their operational frameworks as the new regulation is implemented.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 331.5 kb)

• Thursday 8 October 2015 15:00-16:00

  Jakob Madsen, Monash University
  WEALTH AND INEQUALITY IN EIGHT CENTURIES OF BRITISH CAPITALISM
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  This paper constructs annual data for the aggregate wealth-income ratio, W-Y, saving, s, and growth, g, for Britain 1210-2013. The data are used to test one of Piketty’s central hypotheses that the W-Y ratio is governed by the s-g ratio in the long run, and it is argued that Piketty’s model needs to be extended by the share of non-renewables in total wealth in order to explain the W-Y ratio during different eras of capitalism – pre-industrialization, industrialization and the knowledge driven economy. It is shown that savings, growth and the share of non-renewables in total wealth have been the fundamental drivers of the W-Y ratio over the past eight centuries.

• Thursday 1 October 2015 15:00-16:00

  Idriss Fontaine (Université de La Réunion)
  "French Unemployment Dynamics: a Three-State Approach"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  In this paper, we provide a new assessment of labor market flows in France over the period 2003-2012. By using the French Labour Force Survey and the ILO’s standards, we construct gross worker flows and transition rates between the three main labor market states: employment, unemployment and inactivity. The cyclical properties of the series suggest that flows jointly involving employment and unemployment are the most sensitive to economic conditions. Flows between participation and non-participation exhibit less cyclical patterns over the business cycle. We then decompose unemployment rate fluctuations by applying the steady state and the non- steady state decomposition. With a three state view of labor market, we fi-nd that the job -finding rate is the -first driver of unemployment fluctuations in France, while the job separation rate is the second. This decomposition also demonstrates that the role of inactivity in shaping unemployment is not negligible, justifying a complete analysis with three labor market states. In addition, we also propose an analysis based on three partitions of the overall French population. In this framework, the dynamic decompositions indicate that the sources of unemployment are -different among sub-groups, in particular for women, old workers, unskilled and skilled workers.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 426.6 kb)

• Thursday 16 April 2015 15:00-16:00

  Elliot Aurissergues (PSE and Paris 1)
  "How volatile is the natural rate of interest?"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  In this paper, I argue that the natural interest rate (the interest rate equalizing actual and potential output) can be highly volatile implying that very negative values are possible. First, I build a simple theoretical example. Second, I attempt to review empirical evidences especially regarding the sensitivity of aggregate private spending to interest rate.

• Thursday 19 March 2015 15:00-16:00

  Fabrice MURTIN ( OECD and Sciences-Po Paris)
  The Mechanics of Economic Development in Britain Since 1270: The Role of Great Scientists and Education
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  This paper constructs annual data on primary, secondary and tertiary education, significant inventions and great scientists in the period 1270-2011 for Britain to investigate the influence of education and science on the economic development of Britain. Institutions, culture, real book prices and other variables are used to trace the origin of innovations, great scientists and educational attainment. The regressions show that education, a highly innovative environment and knowledge spillovers were influential in shaping British economic development over the period 1270-2011.

• Thursday 12 March 2015 15:00-16:00

  Annukka Ristiniemi (Paris School of Economics)
  A Laffer curve of debt and liquidity
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  While it is known that having too much debt can be a burden to a country, this paper shows that having too little debt also comes with a cost, through a higher liquidity premium and higher impact on liquidity from income shocks. A search-theoretic model shows that bonds of countries that issue little debt are less liquid than optimal due to lack of participants on the market, while bonds of countries with too high debt to GDP levels also have lower liquidity due to default risk. Furthermore, liquidity in smaller countries suffers more from income shocks. The model is set up in the context of the Eurozone, where the Laffer curve is shown to hold. A panel SVAR with Eurozone data confirms that the smaller the country, the larger the reaction of liquidity and spreads to income shocks.

• Thursday 5 March 2015 15:00-16:00

  Hamzeh Arabzadeh (Paris School of Economics , Universite Catholique de Louvain)
  "Wealth Inequality and Environmental Policy" co-written with Baris Vardar (Paris School of Economics , Universite Catholique de Louvain)
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room B. 3.1.

  Abstract

  In this paper, we study the incidence of a pollution tax on wealth inequality within a society through its effect on factor prices. We develop a general equilibrium model of a closed economy in which firms can produce a generic good by using two alternative technologies: dirty and clean. We focus on the case in which the dirty technology is relatively more capital intensive. We find the pollution tax elasticity of factor prices (wage and interest rate) and show contrasting results for two cases: (i) where firms use only one technology and (ii) where firms operate by using both technologies simultaneously. We find that the presence and utilization of an alternative clean technology leads to a decrease in relative price of capital to labor. In the next step, using our results on tax elasticity of factor prices, we show that the pollution tax is regressive in single technology case and progressive in two-technology case.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 278.7 kb)

• Monday 26 January 2015 15:30-17:00

  Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, DEEP UNIL-HEC Lausanne
  "Hoover Policies and the Onset of the Great Depression"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), room 116

  Abstract

  During the period 1929 -1931, Hoover urged firms not to cut wages, promising in return to keep unions from striking. While avoiding the conflict between unions and industrialist, Hoover’s policies indirectly validated the objectives of the former. Did such policies of high wages amplify the Great Depression? We look at this question through the lenses of a New Keynesian model with labor unions and a nominal interest rate that is bounded from below. Contrary to Ohanian (2009), we argue that Hoover policies actually mitigated the Depression. We model the Great Depression as a negative aggregate demand shock that generates deflation.

• Thursday 15 January 2015 15:00-16:00

  Margarita López Forero, PSE, Paris1
  "FDI and MPK under Financial Frictions"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1

  Abstract

  This paper empirically examines how external financial needs- measured at the sector level- and financial development at the country level interact to shape the aggregate marginal product of capital of a country (MPK) and its foreign direct investment inflows (FDI). First, following Caselli and Feyrer (2007) and using new available data we construct annual aggregate MPK for 78 developing and developed countries during 1995-2010; we use industry-level data for 36 sectors during the same period to construct an annual measure of external financial dependence for each country and assess its effects on MPK conditional on the development of the financial system. Second, we study bilateral FDI between 2001-2009 in a gravity-like framework to analyze how external financial dependence determines FDI inflows in developing countries. We find two main results: 1. Financial development seems to be a necessary condition -and certainly not a sufficient one- in order for production in financially dependent sectors to positively affect aggregate MPK and FDI of a country. We argue that the mechanism through which financial dependence affects FDI is through its effect on MPK. These results are consistent with Antràs and Caballero (2009) who theoretically show that in financially underdeveloped economies, specialization in sectors that use less external finance can help improving aggregate MPK and attract foreign capital flows. 2. Consistent with Caselli and Feyrer (2007), MPK is remarkably similar between capital rich and capital poor countries - sometimes even lower in the latter - and this pattern doesn’t change over time. These results taken altogether contribute to some extent explaining Lucas’s Paradox of why aggregate capitals don’t flow from capital rich to capital poor countries.

• Thursday 11 December 2014 15:00-16:00

  Ekkehard Köhler, University of Freiburg and Walter Eucken Institut
  "Fiscal Sustainability and Econometric Modelling"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 398.4 kb)

• Thursday 4 December 2014 15:00-16:00

  CANCELED

  Margarita López Forero, PSE, Paris1
  "FDI and MPK under Financial Frictions"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1

  Abstract

  This paper empirically examines how external financial needs- measured at the sector level- and financial development at the country level interact to shape the aggregate marginal product of capital of a country (MPK) and its foreign direct investment inflows (FDI). First, following Caselli and Feyrer (2007) and using new available data we construct annual aggregate MPK for 78 developing and developed countries during 1995-2010; we use industry-level data for 36 sectors during the same period to construct an annual measure of external financial dependence for each country and assess its effects on MPK conditional on the development of the financial system. Second, we study bilateral FDI between 2001-2009 in a gravity-like framework to analyze how external financial dependence determines FDI inflows in developing countries. We find two main results: 1. Financial development seems to be a necessary condition -and certainly not a sufficient one- in order for production in financially dependent sectors to positively affect aggregate MPK and FDI of a country. We argue that the mechanism through which financial dependence affects FDI is through its effect on MPK. These results are consistent with Antràs and Caballero (2009) who theoretically show that in financially underdeveloped economies, specialization in sectors that use less external finance can help improving aggregate MPK and attract foreign capital flows. 2. Consistent with Caselli and Feyrer (2007), MPK is remarkably similar between capital rich and capital poor countries - sometimes even lower in the latter - and this pattern doesn’t change over time. These results taken altogether contribute to some extent explaining Lucas’s Paradox of why aggregate capitals don’t flow from capital rich to capital poor countries.

• Thursday 27 November 2014 15:00-16:00

  Alessandra Pizzo, Paris 1 & BoF
  "Accounting for Labor Gaps", joint with F. Langot
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.2

  Abstract

  We develop a balanced growth model with labor supply and search and matching frictions in the labor market to study the impact of economic policy variables on the two margins which constitute the (total) labor input, the extensive one (the rate of employment) and the intensive one (the hours worked per worker): as it is standard in the literature, the taxes have an impact mainly on the hours worked while the labor market institutions (the replacement rate and the bargaining power of workers) influence the rate of employment; however there is also an interaction between the two margins. The model is calibrated to match the post WWII data for three countries (U.S., France and Germany) and it is solved in perfect foresight: the aim is to use it to perform counterfactual experiments about the evolution of the policy variables and to compare welfare levels implied by policy changes.

• Thursday 20 November 2014 15:00-16:00

  Miklos VARI, Paris 1 & BoF
  "Implementing Monetary Policy in a Fragmented Monetary Union"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1

  Abstract

  This paper shows how interbank market fragmentation disrupts monetary policy implementation. Fragmentation is defined as the situation where some banks are cut from the interbank loan market. The paper incorporates fragmentation in an otherwise standard theoretical model of monetary policy implementation, where profit maximizing banks, subject to reserve requirements, borrow and deposit funds at a central bank. It shows that in the presence of fragmentation, excess liquidity arises endogenously and the interbank rate declines below the central bank main rate. The interbank rate is then unstable. The papers documents that this is what happened in the Euro-Area since 2008. It shows that large absorption operations can be effective in controlling the interbank rate. The model is also well suited to analyze unconventional monetary policy measures.

• Thursday 13 November 2014 15:00-16:00

  Meradj MORTEZAPOURAGHDAM, Sciences Po
  The Legal Uncertainties and Financial Fragility
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1

• Thursday 6 November 2014 15:00-16:00

  Alessandra Pizzo, Paris 1 & BoF
  "Accounting for Labor Gaps", joint with F. Langot
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.2

  Abstract

  We develop a balanced growth model with labor supply and search and matching frictions in the labor market to study the impact of economic policy variables on the two margins which constitute the (total) labor input, the extensive one (the rate of employment) and the intensive one (the hours worked per worker): as it is standard in the literature, the taxes have an impact mainly on the hours worked while the labor market institutions (the replacement rate and the bargaining power of workers) influence the rate of employment; however there is also an interaction between the two margins. The model is calibrated to match the post WWII data for three countries (U.S., France and Germany) and it is solved in perfect foresight: the aim is to use it to perform counterfactual experiments about the evolution of the policy variables and to compare welfare levels implied by policy changes.

• Thursday 6 November 2014 15:00-16:00

  Mihaly T. Borsi, Universidad de Alicante
  "Credit Contractions and Unemployment"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1

  Abstract

  This paper investigates the impact of private credit contractions on labor market performance. Impulse responses for youth, long-term, and overall unemployment are estimated using local linear projections for a panel of 20 OECD countries over the period 1980-2013. The empirical findings suggest that disruptions in the credit market can generate sizable and statistically significant unemployment fluctuations. The impact for youth unemployment is even more pronounced, while lasting effects on long-term unemployment emphasize the existence of a sluggish recovery. Moreover, labor market outcomes depend heavily on the financial leverage of an economy prior to the onset of a credit contraction. These results underline the important association between frictions in the financial sector and unemployment.

• Thursday 16 October 2014 17:00-18:00

  Antoine Lepetit, Paris 1
  "Labor supply factors and economic fluctuations"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.2 (17h00-18h00)

  Abstract

  We propose a new VAR identi-cation scheme that enables us to identify labor supply shocks from other labor market shocks. According to our analysis on U.S data over the period 1985-2013, labor supply shocks account for a small but signi-cant share of fluctuations in output and unemployment at business-cycle frequencies. We also -find that wage bargaining shocks are important but not exclusive drivers of unemployment both in the short and in the long run. These results suggest that traditional identi-cation strategies used in estimated New Keynesian models may be misguided.

• Thursday 12 June 2014 14:45-16:00

  Eleni Iliopulos, Paris 1
  Welfare costs of fluctuations: when labor market search interacts with financial frictions (joint with François Langot and Thepthida Sopraseuth)
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.17 (14h45-16h00)

• Thursday 5 June 2014 14:45-16:00

  Macro Workshop Cancelled

• Thursday 22 May 2014 14:45-16:00

  Elliot Aurissergues, ENS Cachan
  A Ramsey Model with Heterogenous Expectations
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.17 (14h45-16h00)

  Abstract

  We introduce heterogenous expectations in the non linear version of a discrete time Ramsey growth model. Instead of basing their forecasts on the aggregate rational expectation policy rule, agents use a simplified form with ad hoc parameter values. These parameter values are specific to each individual. We adress three questions. First, Does the model converge to steady state? Second, what is the cost of expectation errors for individual agents? Third, to which extent does the actual outcome differ from initial forecasts?

• Thursday 15 May 2014 14:45-16:00

  Macro Workshop cancelled

• Thursday 27 March 2014 14:45-16:00

  Adrian Penalver, PSE
  Banks and the credit cycle
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.3 (14h45-16h00)

  Abstract

  This paper presents a model of the credit cycle focusing on the time varying behaviour of banks. It delivers key features of the credit cycle including counter-cyclical credit standards and default rates as well as procyclical loan and deposit interest rates. An interesting feature of the model is that all agents, including the bank, are making rational forward looking decisions using model-consistent expectations. There are behavioural frictions in the model but these do not include principal/agent problems. The credit cycle can therefore be explained by rational responses to incentives and without recourse to psychological or sociological factors or misalignment of incentives. The paper builds a model of credit risk management for a bank making long term loans to fund projects subject to idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. The objective of the bank is to maximise profits, minimise variance in profits whilst trying to keep the endogenous volume of loans as close as possible to the endogenous supply of deposits. The solution to the dynamic programming problem faced by the bank is a set of policy functions for the loan interest rate, the deposit interest rate, a monitoring rate and a loan covenant threshold.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 515.9 kb)

• Thursday 20 March 2014 14:45-16:00

  Francesco Molteni, Paris 1
  TBA
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.17 (14h45-16h00)

• Thursday 13 March 2014 14:45-16:00

  Yannick Kalantzis, Banque de France
  Optimal exchange rate policy in a growing semi-open economy
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.17 (14h45-16h00)

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 353.1 kb)

• Thursday 6 March 2014 14:45-16:00

  Jordan Roulleau Pasdeloup, CREST
  Why Is the Government Spending Multiplier Larger at the Zero Lower Bound? Not (Only) Because of the Zero Lower Bound
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.17 (14h45-16h00)

• Thursday 13 February 2014 14:45-16:00

  Daria Shakourzadeh, PSE
  Coordination and Liquidity: Monetary Policy Affects Asset Prices
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.17 (14h45-16h00)

  Abstract

  I study asset prices when illiquidity may arise as a result of a coordination failure within a search-and-matching model of money. The liquidity of an asset is determined by investors’ belief about the probability that it will be accepted as collateral by their peers or by the central bank. Strategic complementarities among investors and implicit guarantees of central bank intervention give rise to multiple equilibria. Therefore, even when the monopoly of central bank money as the settlement asset is assumed, other money-like assets may emerge from the private sector. In this model the structure of individual payoffs evolves randomly and slowly. With perfect information, I find multiple equilibria. With imperfect information and uncertain payoffs, the equilibrium is unique when the distribution is sufficiently dispersed, and the model displays a hysteresis effect: the economy switches suddenly from a liquid regime to an illiquid regime and vice versa, and the switch-point depends on past history. The dynamics of liquidity regimes is changed if I let the central banker intervene for two reasons: (i) the central banker cares both about the buyer’s and the seller’s utility, and (ii) the central banker has market power in the sense that he can willingly change the liquidity regime.

• Thursday 12 December 2013 11:15-12:30

  Macro Workshop cancelled

• Thursday 5 December 2013 14:45-16:00

  Étienne Lehmann, CRED (TEPP) - Université Panthéon Assas & CREST
  Beyond the Labour Income Tax Wedge: The Unemployment-Reducing Effect of Tax Progressivity
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h45-16h00)

  Abstract

  This paper argues that, for a given overall level of labour income taxation, a more progressive tax schedule reduces the unemployment rate and increases the employment rate. From a theoretical point of view, higher progressivity induces a wage-moderation effect and increases overall employment since employment of low-paid workers is more responsive. We test these theoretical predictions on a panel of 21 OECD countries over 1998-2008. Controlling for the burden of taxation at the average wage, we show that a more progressive taxation reduces the unemployment rate and increases the employment rate. These findings are confirmed when we account for the potential endogeneity of both average taxation and progressivity. Overall our results suggest that policy-makers should not only focus on the detrimental effects of tax progressivity on in-work effort.

• Thursday 28 November 2013 14:45-16:00

  Pamfili Antipa, Banque de France
  Fiscal Sustainability and the Value of Money: Lessons from the British Paper Pound, 1797-1821
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h45-16h00)

• Thursday 21 November 2013 14:45-16:00

  Mehdi Senouci, PSE and ENS Lyon
  A General Characterization of Neoclassical Production Functions and an Application to Physical Capital-Based Growth Models (joint with Gwenael Moysan (GATE-ENS Lyon))
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h45-16h00)

  Abstract

  We show how the space of neoclassical production functions maps into the space of elasticity of substitution functions. The method allows to derive every neoclassical production function of class C2. We also present a simple, su-cient condition for a production function to satisfy Inada conditions. As an application, we prove that the Solow model with steady capital-augmenting (or investment-speci-c) technical change is asymptotically balanced if and only if the capital share converges to a non-trivial limit when the capital-labor ratio tends to in-nity; this result complements the famous steady-state growth theorem due to Hirofumi Uzawa and Joan Robinson. Finally, we discuss how these -ndings permit to interpret major swings in US growth since 1947.

• Thursday 14 November 2013 14:45-16:00

  Marc Pourroy, Paris 1
  Food Prices and Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h45-16h00)

• Thursday 7 November 2013 14:45-16:00

  Macro Workshop cancelled

• Thursday 17 October 2013 14:45-16:00

  Adrian Penalver, PSE
  Managing Maturity Transformation Under Aggregate Uncertainty
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h45-16h00)

  Abstract

  When banks engage in maturity transformation, they repeatedly make long-term loan commitments funded by short-term deposits. With only idiosyncratic shocks to borrowers and depositors, a bank big enough to rely on the law of large numbers can satisfy this funding constraint every period with constant loan and deposit interest rates. With aggregate shocks as well, this is a much more challenging problem because how a bank resolves excess long-term loan demand in the current period affects the distribution it takes into the next which in turn affects the excess demand problem it will face then. This paper builds a model of this dynamic programming problem and solves it under various conditions. The paper shows how fixed rate loan contracts and aggregate savings behaviour can interact to affect the dynamics of aggregate output in a bank-intermediated economy.

• Thursday 10 October 2013 14:45-16:00

  Yordan Mahmudiev
  Dynamic Monetary-Fiscal Interactions in a Monetary Union
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h45-16h00)

• Thursday 3 October 2013 14:45-16:00

  Elliot Aurissergues, ENS Cachan
  Lack of Renegotiation and Optimal Debt
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h45-16h00)

  Abstract

  This paper is an attempt of extension in infinite horizon of the costly state verification (CSV) model of financial friction. The main intuition is that firms are liquidated although the continuation value is superior to the liquidation one because there is no renegotiation between lenders and borrowers. We build a simple model to show this intuition and the link with the CSV model. Then, we extend this idea in an infinite horizon continuous model. Numerical simulations shows that for a large set of parameters, the optimal level of debt for the firm is equivalent to a tight credit constraint. The financial accelerator effect displayed is also substantial.

• Thursday 26 September 2013 14:45-16:00

  Vincent Boitier
  The Role of Labor Market Structure in Urban Sprawl
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h45-16h00)

  Abstract

  In the present ariticle, I draw a link between urban sprawl and the structure of the labor market by constructing a urban labor model where spatial allocation of workers is directed by a Nash equilibrium in the context of a Potential game. Two relevant results appear. Fisrt, an endogenous closed form solution for urban sprawl is obtained where the role of each labor parameter is unambiguous. Second, I underscore that urban density in the decentralized economy is inefficient because firms compensate too much workers for their spatial costs.

• Thursday 27 June 2013 15:00-16:00

  Axelle Arquié, Paris 1
  TBA
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 20 June 2013 15:00-16:00

  Basile Grassi, Paris 1
  Firm Dynamics and the Granular Hypothesis (joint with Vasco Carvalho (CREI-UPF))
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 13 June 2013 15:00-16:00

  Pauline Bourgeon, Banque de France
  Business Cycles and International Migration among OECD countries
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 6 June 2013 14:30-16:00

  Anastasia Zhutova, Paris 1
  The cyclicality of labor market flows: A conditional approach
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h30-15h15)

• Thursday 6 June 2013 14:30-16:00

  Dmitry Veselov, Paris 1
  Redistribution and Barriers to Entry in the Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Agents
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h15-16h00)

• Thursday 30 May 2013 15:00-16:00

  Sarah Le Duigou, Université du Maine
  Wage Progression over the Life-Cycle in France
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), S.1 (15h-16h)

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 317.6 kb)

• Thursday 23 May 2013 15:00-16:00

  Antoine Lepetit, Paris 1
  Reassessing the rationale for price stability in the presence of matching frictions
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Salle 114 (15h00-16h00)

• Thursday 16 May 2013 15:00-16:00

  Jean Barthélemy, Banque de France
  State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

  Abstract

  In this paper, we solve a large class of non-linear rational expectations models with regime switching, i.e. recurring shifts in parameters. The regime-switches and the shocks may follow state-dependent probability distributions. First, we provide su-fficient conditions for the existence of a unique stable equilibrium using a perturbation approach. Then, we provide Taylor expansions of the solution in subclasses of models. Finally, we put forward that state-dependent fluctuations of transition probabilities can substantially alter the equilibrium dynamics through economic agents’ expectations. We illustrate these modi-cations in the context of a Fisherian model of inflation and a New- Keynesian model in which monetary policy switches endogenously between a passive and an active reaction to inflation.

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 661.8 kb)

• Thursday 25 April 2013 15:00-16:00

  Loïc Batté, Toulouse 1
  Sequential votes without commitment: the case of education subsidies and income redistribution
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Salle116 (15h-16h)

  Abstract

  I try to determine under which conditions the political process might lead low-skilled individuals to finance the education of higher-skilled individuals, while allowing for repayment of these transfers in the form of labor income redistribution. It can be seen that such a scheme would be socially profitable if some of the high-skilled agents are credit-constrained when young, and cannot borrow to finance their education. However, the fact that education transfers and income redistribution are not simultaneous, and that the latter cannot be pledged upon by high-skilled agents at the time when the size of the former is decided, is a big obstacle to such a scheme of transfers. So far, I have been able to fully derive the politico-economic equilibrium of this model in the simpler case where no agent is credit-constrained: the flows of public funds (education subsidies and labor income redistribution here) are shown to be dependent on the distribution of pre-education intrinsic abilities, the elasticity of labor supply to taxation, and the cost and returns to education. I also obtain that the labor income tax is too large compared to the normative benchmark, which requires that education subsidies offset the tax distortions on human capital accumulation.

• Thursday 18 April 2013 14:30-16:00

  Vincent Boitier, Paris 1
  Unemployment Dispersion and City Configuration
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h15-16h00)

• Thursday 18 April 2013 14:30-16:00

  Alessandra Pizzo, Banque de France
  Exploring the Shimer’s puzzle(s) in a New Keynesian framework
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (14h30-15h15)

  Abstract

  In this paper we try to shed light on the issues of the (low) volatilities of labor market variables implied by the search and matching model, the behavior of real wage and the values of the correlations between these variables and labor productivity. The failure of the canonical search and matching model, as modelised by Shimer (2005), is twofold: on the one hand the model is not able to reproduce the volatilities of labor market variables, on the other the values of the correlations of employment and labor market tightness with labor productivity are too high. Some recent empirical evidence, moreover, indicates a possible switch in the sign of these correlations from positive to negative around mid 1980s. We claim that to solve both issues, it is necessary to consider a New Keynesian framework with nominal rigidities, in order to be able to obtain a decrease of employment after a positive technological shock. Thanks to a particular kind of preferences as in Chéron, Langot (2004), unemployment is “truly involuntary” (since unemployed workers are worse off than the employed ones) and the “outside options” with respect to employment become countercyclical. We use these preferences in a New Keynesian model with price stickiness and labor market frictions, in line with the existing DSGE literature, to check its ability to reproduce the volatility of labor market variables and real wage, as well as the correlations between these variables and labor productivity, conditional on both productivity and aggregate demand shocks.

• Thursday 11 April 2013 15:00-16:00

  Sheng Bi, Paris 1
  The separating equilibrium by age on the labor market
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment A, rez-de-chaussée, Salle A2 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 4 April 2013 15:00-16:00

  Liliana Varela, Paris School of Economics
  Financial Liberalization, competition and growth
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 28 March 2013 15:00-16:00

  Mathias Lé, Paris School of Economics
  Heterogeneous Incentives to Adjust Bank Leverage (joint with Thibaut Duprey)
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room 114 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 21 March 2013 15:00-16:00

  Bertrand Achou, Paris 1
  Portfolio choice in retirement: could housing be a combination of annuities and long-term care insurance?
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 10 January 2013 15:00-16:00

  Samuel Fraiberger, NYU Stern School of Business
  Disaster Risk in Currency Markets
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment A, rez-de-chaussée, Salle A2 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 20 December 2012 15:00-16:00

  Yaacoub Ould Bahine, Paris 1
  Optimization of economic growth under the energetic transition
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

  Abstract

  This paper aims to present our economic growth model that should explain as well as possible, the impact of energetic transition on economic growth. In our precedent working-paper, we have discussed some of the important energetic transition models trying to build up a new concept of the real problematic of the 21st century energetic transition. The paper also presents the first attempt, according to our knowledge, to differentiate between energy as production factor and energy as consumption good for households. We take also into account the Non-Energetic-Consumption (NEC) (of households). The model conclude that NRE extraction must follow both the level of industrialization and the level of NEC. The two latter must converges to a steady state defined by the discount factor and the depreciation rate of the capital stock. The optimal RE production is the level that complete the overall energy demand (that is done by simple combination of the model’s equations). Renewable energy development depends on the price evolution. Intuitively, high energy price slow down the RE penetration. Finally, the application of this model on French data shows that the discount rate changes over time. Its trend is very similar to the evolution REs.

• Thursday 13 December 2012 15:00-16:00

  The Macro Workshop is cancelled
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment B, 2 ème étage, Salle de réunion (15h-16h)

• Thursday 6 December 2012 15:00-16:00

  Varvara Isyuk, Paris 1
  Resuming bank lending in the aftermath of the Capital Purchase Program: system GMM approach
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 22 November 2012 15:00-16:00

  Mehdi Senouci, Paris School of Economics
  Direction of technical change, endogenous fertility, and patterns of growth
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment B, 2 ème étage, Salle de réunion (15h-16h)

• Thursday 15 November 2012 15:00-16:00

  Gabriel Zucman (Paris School of Economics)

  Abstract

  Jeudi 15 novembre 15:00-16:00
  Gabriel Zucman, Paris School of Economics:
  "Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries, 1810-2010" (joint with Thomas Piketty)
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 25 October 2012 15:00-16:00

  TBA (campus Jourdan)

  Abstract

  Jeudi 25 octobre 15:00-16:00
  TBA
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Salle 6 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 18 October 2012 15:00-16:00

  Francesco Molteni (Paris 1)

  Abstract

  Jeudi 18 octobre 15:00-16:00
  Francesco Molteni, Paris 1
  TBA
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), B.3.1 (15h-16h)

  1 document to download

  • info document (PDF, 602 kb)

• Thursday 11 October 2012 15:00-16:00

  Liliana Varela (Paris School of Economics)

  Abstract

  Jeudi 11 octobre 15:00-16:00
  Liliana Varela, Paris School of Economics :
  TBA
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Salle 6 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 4 October 2012 15:00-16:00

  Adrian Penalver (PSE)

  Abstract

  Jeudi 04 octobre 15:00-16:00
  Adrian Penalver, Paris School of Economics :
  "A model of endogenous bank credit risk"
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room B.3.1 (15h-16h)
  Abstract:
  This paper presents a recursive model in which a bank with market power intermediates funds between heterogeneous agents. Depending on their circumstances, agents self-select to be depositors, with funds at call, or long-term borrowers, who invest to produce output. The profits of individual projects are private knowledge and subject to persistent stochastic shocks. Agents use this information to make endogenous entry and exit decisions similar to the framework of Hopenhayn (1992) where exit can be orderly or through bankruptcy and default. The bank loan contract specifies the interest rate, a monitoring intensity and a profitability covenant. For any given contract, there is a steady-state distribution of profitability states. The bank chooses the contract terms in order to maximise steady-state profits net of default risk subject to the constraint that it must have as many deposits as loans. The bank will need to monitor because of asymmetric information about the state of the loan and the risk of default. This results in a misalignment of interests between the bank and the borrower over the states for which production should continue and thus the bank cannot always rely on the voluntary actions of the borrower to protect its interests.

• Thursday 28 June 2012 15:00-16:00

  Thibaut Duprey, Banque de France and Paris School of Economics
  Why inefficient public banking can be useful to reduce the severity of the lending cycle ?
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 21 June 2012 15:00-16:00

  Antoine Berthou, Banque de France and CEPII
  Financial Development and Firms’ growth in India
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 14 June 2012 15:00-16:30

  Chetan Dave, NYU Abu Dhabi
  Learning, Large Deviations and Rare Events.
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 7 June 2012 15:00-16:00

  Romain Rancière, Paris School of Economics
  Financial Liberalization and Allocative Efficiency
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 31 May 2012 15:00-16:00

  Daniel Kapp, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Real Output Costs of Financial Crises: A Loss Distribution Approach
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 10 May 2012 15:15-16:15

  Luca Fornaro, London School of Economics
  Financial Crises and Exchange Rate Policy
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Grande salle (15h15-16h15)

• Thursday 3 May 2012 15:00-16:00

  NO SEMINAR
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 12 April 2012 16:00-17:00

  Charles-Marie Chevalier, Paris School of Economics
  Structural change, emergence of new investors and rise of mutual funds: parallel or mutually reinforcing evolutions?
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Grande salle (16h-17h)

• Thursday 5 April 2012 15:15-16:15

  Vladimir Asriyan, UC Berkeley
  Housing Markets and Liquidity Crises.
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 29 March 2012 15:15-16:15

  Sheng Bi, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Revisiting the life cycle profile of wages
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Grande salle (15h15-16h15)

• Thursday 22 March 2012 15:00-16:00

  Axelle Arquié, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Can Basel III liquidity ratios endanger overall financial stability?
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 15 March 2012 15:00-16:00

  Pablo Winant, Paris School or Economics
  Portfolio choice by a small open economy.
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 8 March 2012 15:15-16:15

  Xavier Ragot, Paris School of Economics
  Default and credit contraint.
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Grande salle (15h15-16h15)

• Thursday 16 February 2012 15:15-16:15

  Liliana Varela, Paris School of Economics
  Financial Liberalization and Growth: the Case of Hungary.
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Grande salle (15h15-16h15)

• Thursday 9 February 2012 15:00-16:00

  Mathias Lé, Paris School of Economics.
  Deposit Insurance Adoption and Bank Risk-Taking : an empirical investigation.
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 2 February 2012 15:00-16:00

  Jean Imbs, CNRS and Paris School of Economics
  Economic Integration and Structural Change
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 26 January 2012 15:00-16:00

  Jean-Bernard Chatelain, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  The Failure of Financial Macroeconomics and What to Do About It.
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 19 January 2012 15:15-16:15

  Antoine Lepetit, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Near rationality, fair wages and the long run Phillips Curve.
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Grande salle (15h15-16h15)

• Thursday 12 January 2012 15:00-16:00

  Vincent Boitier, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Local interactions in macroeconomics: the case of urban search models
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 5 January 2012 15:00-16:00

  NO WORKSHOP
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 15 December 2011 15:00-16:00

  Sophie Osotimehin, CREST and Paris School of Economics
  Aggregate productivity and the allocation of resources over the business cycle (Job Market Paper)
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 1 December 2011 15:15-16:15

  Jose Luis Diaz Sanchez, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Deleveraging and Private Consumption in Spain.
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Grande salle (15h15-16h15)

• Thursday 17 November 2011 15:15-16:15

  Annukka Ristiniemi, Paris School of Economics
  Credit ratings and debt crises.
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, Grande salle (15h15-16h15)

• Thursday 10 November 2011 15:00-16:00

  Basile Grassi, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Do banks lend to each other? How asymmetry of information shapes the lending channel.
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 20 October 2011 15:15-16:15

  Mehdi Senouci, Paris School of Economics
  Consumption- and investment-specific technical change in a two-sector model of growth.
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, salle 6B (15h-16h)

• Thursday 13 October 2011 15:00-16:00

  Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
  Consumers’ Imperfect Information and Price Rigidities
  MSE Campus (106-112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris), Room S.3 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 6 October 2011 15:00-16:00

  Eric Monnet, Paris School of Economics
  The prices vs. quantities tradeoff in monetary policy.
  Campus Jourdan, bâtiment D, salle D131 (15h-16h)

• Thursday 22 September 2011 13:30-14:30

  Romain Lafarguette, Paris School of Economics
  "Liquidity constraints and firms dynamic in China : a structural estimation"
  ATTENTION, HORAIRE EXCEPTIONNEL Campus Jourdan, bâtiment principal, rez-de-chaussée, salle 8 (13h30-14h30)

• Monday 27 June 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Prakash Loungani, International Monetary Fund
  New Evidence on Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment

• Monday 20 June 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Romain Rancière, Paris School of Economics
  Sudden Stops and Sovereign Defaults.

• Monday 6 June 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Pablo Winant, Paris School of Economics
  Regulating Shadows ?

• Monday 30 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Axelle Arquié, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Shadow Banking System and Regulation.

• Monday 23 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Tarik Ocaktan, Paris School of Economics
  How does firm-level volatility affect aggregate dynamics?

• Monday 16 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Karim Azizi, Université Paris 1
  The Carrot Or The Stick? Competing Devices In The Management Of The Labour Force

• Monday 9 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Francesco Molteni, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  On the determinants of stability periods between financial crises

• Monday 2 May 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Jean-Baptiste Michau, Ecole Polytechnique
  Dynamic Optimal Redistributive Taxation with Endogenous Retirement

• Monday 4 April 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Esther Régnier, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Management of the Fishery using the Stochastic Viability Approach : a simple study-case.

• Monday 28 March 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Hamidreza Tabarraei, Paris School of Economics
  Debt Stabilization and Default Risk in a Monetary Union.

• Monday 21 March 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Florent Buisson, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Money and Connections in a Monetary Search Model.

• Monday 14 March 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Marc-Antoine Jambu, University of Bretagne Occidentale
  The Great Moderation and the increased markup of final contractors

• Monday 7 March 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Yanos Zylberberg, Paris School of Economics
  Neither a borrower nor a lender be: resources misallocation in the wake of natural disasters.

• Monday 28 February 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Camille Abeille-Becker, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Endogenous separations, wage stickyness and the unemployment volatility puzzle.

• Monday 21 February 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Jean-Marc Tallon, CNRS, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Ambiguity aversion and the historical equity premium.

• Monday 7 February 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Mehdi Senouci, Paris School of Economics
  Optimal growth and the golden rule in a two-sector model of capital accumulation.

• Monday 24 January 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Jean-Baptiste Michau, Ecole Polytechnique
  Dynamic Optimal Redistributive Taxation with Endogenous Retirement

• Monday 17 January 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Luca Fornaro, Paris School of Economics
  Sudden Stops in Emerging Markets: The Role of Monetary Policy

• Monday 10 January 2011 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Cyril Pouvelle, Paris School of Economics
  The (pro-)cyclical impact of capital buffers: Evidence from French banks

• Monday 13 December 2010 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Carmen Camacho, Catholic University of Louvain
  Spatial dynamics and convergence: The spatial AK model

• Monday 6 December 2010 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Guillaume Commenge, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Sustainable development and population growth

• Monday 29 November 2010 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Djamel Kirat, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Do carbon-prices cause electricity-prices ?

• Monday 22 November 2010 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Francesco Pappadà, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  All you need is a loan. Credit market frictions and the exit of firms in recessions

• Monday 15 November 2010 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Sheng Bi, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics

• Monday 8 November 2010 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Basile Grassi, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics

• Monday 18 October 2010 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Jose Luis Diaz Sanchez, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics
  Retrospective analysis of housing prices macro-linkages in the United States

• Monday 11 October 2010 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Damien Dejeufosse, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics

• Monday 4 October 2010 12:30-13:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Liliana Varela, Paris School of Economics

• Monday 14 June 2010 13:30-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle S2

  Michela Limardi, Paris School of Economics

• Monday 7 June 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Emmanuelle Lavaine, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics

• Monday 31 May 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Yarine Fawaz, Paris School of Economics

  1 document to download

  • Delay the Claiming of Social Security Benefits or Die: a Survival Analysis of the Claiming Behavior of Older Americans (PDF, 434.2 kb)

• Monday 17 May 2010 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Attention: Salle S2

  Ekrame Boubtane, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics

  1 document to download

  • Immigration, growth and unemployment (PDF, 24.3 kb)

• Monday 10 May 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Pierre-Jean Messe, University of Le Mans

  1 document to download

  • Young in old out: a new evaluation (PDF, 238.2 kb)

• Monday 3 May 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Linas Tarasonis, CREST and Paris School of Economics
  Insurance within the firm: evidence from France

• Monday 12 April 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Lin Guo, Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics

  1 document to download

  • Credit monitoring and development: The impact of financial integration (PDF, 476.8 kb)

• Monday 22 March 2010 13:30-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Marc Léandri, Spanish National Research Council

  1 document to download

  • Assimilative Capacity Dynamics in Pollution Economics (PDF, 563.4 kb)

• Monday 15 March 2010 13:30-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Eliane El Badaoui, University of Cergy-Pontoise

  1 document to download

  • Transfers within the Extended Family: Theory and Evidence from South Africa (PDF, 295.8 kb)

• Monday 8 March 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Yanos Zylberberg, EHESS and Paris School of Economics

  1 document to download

  • Do Tropical Typhoons Smask Community Ties? Theory and Evidence from Vietnam (PDF, 977.3 kb)

• Monday 1 March 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Eric Monnet, EHESS & Paris School of Economics

  1 document to download

  • Credit controls did matter. An evaluation of monetary policy during France's golden age, 1945-1973 (PDF, 735.7 kb)

• Monday 25 January 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B3.1

  Juan Carluccio, EHESS and Paris School of Economics

  1 document to download

  • Wage Bargaining and the Boundaries of the Multinational Firm (PDF, 487 kb)

• Monday 18 January 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Gaelle Ferrant, CES, University of Paris 1

  2 documents to download

  • Gender inequalities may hinder development : evidence from cross-country regression (abstract) (PDF, 45.6 kb)

  • Slides (PDF, 292.7 kb)

• Monday 11 January 2010 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle B.3.1

  Magali Recoules, CES, University of Paris 1

  1 document to download

  • Divorce decisions, divorce laws and social norms (PDF, 286.2 kb)

• Monday 14 December 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Dmitry Levando
  TBA

• Monday 7 December 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Guillaume Commenge, CES, University of Paris 1

  1 document to download

  • Durabilité et Croissance de la Population : Quel Critère de Choix Social, Quelle Regle de Hartwick (PDF, 128.2 kb)

• Monday 30 November 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Jose Luis Diaz Sanchez, CES, University of Paris 1

  1 document to download

  • Housing Collateral Effects: Structural Estimation and Empirical Evidence from UK (PDF, 278.3 kb)

• Monday 23 November 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Imen Ben Mohamed

  1 document to download

  • Financial Frictions and Business Cycles in a Monetary Macro-Model (PDF, 334.8 kb)

• Monday 16 November 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Camille Abeille-Becker, CES, University of Paris 1

• Monday 9 November 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Pierrick Clerc, CES, University of Paris 1

  1 document to download

  • Introducing asymmetric information in the credible bargain: an explanation of the real wage stickiness (PDF, 152.8 kb)

• Monday 2 November 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Jean Barthélemy, Paris School of Economics

  1 document to download

  • Trends and Cycles: An Historical Review of the Euro Area (PDF, 2.8 Mb)

• Monday 26 October 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Djamel KIRAT, CES, University of Paris 1

  1 document to download

  • The impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme on electricity generation sectors (PDF, 220.4 kb)

• Monday 19 October 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Masashige HAMANO, CREM, University of Rennes1

  1 document to download

  • Reconciling the Consumption-Real Exchange Rate Anomaly by Love for Variety (PDF, 279 kb)

• Monday 12 October 2009 13:30-15:00

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Natacha RAFFIN, CES, University of Paris 1

• Monday 5 October 2009 13:30-15:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Dramane Coulibaly, CES, University of Paris 1

• Monday 8 June 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Natacha RAFFIN, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar : When poor Environmental Health threatens Economic Development

  Abstract

  When poor Environmental Health threatens Economic Development

• Monday 25 May 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Magali RECOULES, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar : Household Behavior and Social Norms: A conjugal contract model

• Monday 18 May 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Lin GUO, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar : Financial Globalization and Emerging Countries: Capital Flow and Financial Development

• Monday 11 May 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Francesco PAPPADÀ, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar : Do recessions cleanse out the least efficient firms? The role of credit constraints

• Monday 4 May 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Klaus WÄLDE (University of Glasgow)
  INVITED SEMINAR

  1 document to download

  • Estimating incentive and welfare effects of non-stationary unemployment benfits (PDF, 341.6 kb)

• Monday 27 April 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Nicolas DROMEL, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Credit Constraints and the Persistence of Unemployment (PDF, 159.8 kb)

• Monday 20 April 2009 13:00-14:30

  NO SEMINAR

• Monday 6 April 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Fabienne LLENSE, CEs, Université UP1
  internal seminar : Incidence of fiscal policies on management turnover and golden parachutes provision

• Monday 30 March 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Ekrame BOUBTANE, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar : Migration and Growth

• Monday 23 March 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Linas TARASONIS, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Modelling Vintage Capital in Matching Models with Credible Bargaining (PDF, 184.8 kb)

• Monday 9 March 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Mireille CHIROLEU-ASSOULINE, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Environmental Tax and the Distribution of Income with Heterogeneous Workers (PDF, 163.4 kb)

• Monday 2 March 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Nicolas SCHUTZ, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Labor Standards and International Trade in a (PDF, 190.6 kb)

• Monday 23 February 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Clémence BERSON, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Is There More Discrimination in the Public Sector Than in the Private Sector? The Case of Second Generation Migrants in France (PDF, 291.1 kb)

• Monday 16 February 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Christophe HACHON, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Who really benefits from unfunded pension systems: when life expectancy matters (PDF, 350 kb)

• Monday 2 February 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Yarine FAWAZ, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Rushing to take Social Security retirement benefits before the normal retirement age: labor market conditions as main incentives (PDF, 270.3 kb)

• Monday 26 January 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  salle 115

  Jean-Olivier HAIRAULT, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Unemployment Dynamics and the Cost of Business Cycles (PDF, 397 kb)

• Monday 12 January 2009 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Jerome COFFINET, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Une évaluation structurelle du ratio de sacrifice dans la zone Euro (PDF, 571.1 kb)

• Monday 15 December 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  salle 115

  Sophie OSOTIMEHIN, CES, Université UP1
  reading group

  1 document to download

  • Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Economic Fluctuations (PDF, 1.1 Mb)

• Monday 8 December 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Dramane COULIBALY, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Remittances Inflows, Resource Reallocation and Real exchange rate in developing countries (PDF, 349.7 kb)

• Monday 1 December 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Francesco PAPPADÀ, CES, Université UP1
  reading group

  1 document to download

  • International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms (PDF, 521.3 kb)

• Monday 24 November 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Damien DEJEUFOSSE, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Current account adjustment and Monetary policy : Can international cooperation be benefic? (PDF, 976.7 kb)

• Monday 17 November 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Thomas BAUDIN, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Family Policies: What Does The Standard Endogenous Fertility Model Tell Us? (PDF, 385.6 kb)

• Monday 3 November 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Victor HILLER, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Gender Inequality, Endogenous Cultural Norms and Economic Development (PDF, 330.8 kb)

• Monday 27 October 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Magali RECOULES, CES, Université UP1
  reading group

  1 document to download

  • Persistence of occupational segregation: The role of the intergenerational transmission of preferences (PDF, 190.5 kb)

• Monday 20 October 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Dramane COULIBALY, CES, Université UP1
  internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittances cycles: Evidence from a panel VAR (PDF, 295.5 kb)

• Monday 13 October 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Natacha RAFFIN, CES, Université UP1
  reading group

  1 document to download

  • An Overlapping Generations Model of Growth and the Environment (PDF, 446 kb)

• Monday 6 October 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Sumudu KANKANAMGE, CES, Université UP1
  Session : internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Uninsured Entrepreneurial Risk and Public Debt Policies (PDF, 171.3 kb)

• Monday 29 September 2008 13:00-14:30

  Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112, boulevard de L’Hôpital, Paris 13°

  Salle 115

  Gunes KAMBER, CES - Université UP1
  Session : internal seminar

  1 document to download

  • Understanding the monetary transmission mechanism in the United Kingdom: The role of nominal and real rigidities (PDF, 261.8 kb)